I decided to unload mine now. I really think that they will dive sooner rather than later. A reprint is uber previsible to keep modern accessible and to lure newer player to the format.
Keeping or selling at this point is simply an issue of greed, as you've already made at least 100% profit even if you bought them at $30, and I'm talking about SCG buy list price. Sure you can gamble and maybe make some more money, but you are just as likely going to loose all that profit now. To each his own, I've sold mine, cause $1k cash is enough for me to do other things I want to do at the moment, best of luck to those who choose to keep them!
Keeping or selling at this point is simply an issue of greed, as you've already made at least 100% profit even if you bought them at $30, and I'm talking about SCG buy list price. Sure you can gamble and maybe make some more money, but you are just as likely going to loose all that profit now. To each his own, I've sold mine, cause $1k cash is enough for me to do other things I want to do at the moment, best of luck to those who choose to keep them!
I think you're missing the point on why people are keeping/buying them. People still want them because they have them to PLAY with, not to make a profit. I still have my fetches because I'd rather be able to still play than sell them off and hope for a reprint. I know that if I sold them now and they AREN'T reprinted this fall, I'll lose quite a bit of flexibility in Legacy for a long time. Greed can be seen the opposite way: it is greedy to be so insistent on making a "profit." It is greedy to simply hope for a reprint at some undetermined time in the future.
You're right, I admit that at this point in my life its alright for me to sit out for a few years if need be to wait for a fetch reprint, most of my play group are on the same boat as I, in that we don't actually play with our fetches, but some of them are still just holding for the sake of profit. I apologize for that last post:)
Keeping or selling at this point is simply an issue of greed, as you've already made at least 100% profit even if you bought them at $30, and I'm talking about SCG buy list price. Sure you can gamble and maybe make some more money, but you are just as likely going to loose all that profit now. To each his own, I've sold mine, cause $1k cash is enough for me to do other things I want to do at the moment, best of luck to those who choose to keep them!
I think you're missing the point on why people are keeping/buying them. People still want them because they have them to PLAY with, not to make a profit. I still have my fetches because I'd rather be able to still play than sell them off and hope for a reprint. I know that if I sold them now and they AREN'T reprinted this fall, I'll lose quite a bit of flexibility in Legacy for a long time. Greed can be seen the opposite way: it is greedy to be so insistent on making a "profit." It is greedy to simply hope for a reprint at some undetermined time in the future.
Which is why I've been telling people who actually need them to keep them. If people are seriously considering selling off their fetches right now due to the exorbitant prices on them, perhaps Modern isn't the format for them. If people are buying them because they think they'll retain value, they need to seriously reconsider their thought processes. If people are holding onto them without any current plans to ever use them, it's a waste of potential cash flow to fund what they really want to be playing.
The point here is that the ship for all of these lines of thought is starting to sail from port, and fast. If you seriously need them in the very near future, then buy them now. Even if they are reprinted this fall, they won't drop between now and about 5 months or so. I seriously doubt they'll spike *again* between then and now, though they may (Historic trends have them spiking about was every 6 months; the question is if the current prices can actually *hold* or if there is room to grow).
The point is don't just get rid of things you actually *need*; that's just asinine. See my previous posts; it's part and parcel with playing eternal formats (And modern in particular) that sometimes you just have to accept that you will take a hit. There's never really going to be a "safe" time to sell for you, period. There will be a safe time to sell if you planned on unloading them anyway, and that time is in the very near future, probably in the next 3-4 months at most.
I will note that there are certain red flags to look for in the next few months that could be ques for fetchlands returning. If the fall set pushes mono-colored even more than it currently is, it's a bit of sign of something on the horizon. Fewer multicolored creatures would at least hint less of a "need" for conventional dual lands, and would reinforce the concept of such a set. If it hints on a land or color matters theme, it should pique the interest of anyone at all and immediately raise a red flag. If Landfall (Or similar land-based ability), for whatever reason at all, shows up in M15 then you might as well just drop them immediately (Note, I'm not saying it will or not, nor speculating on it coming in M15, just noting that if it does occur). Now, none of these are certainties when discussing reprints; we don't have that luxury at all. But they *are* things to keep in mind in the upcoming months, and something to look out for if there are those actually considering unloading their fetchlands.
If, however, it's apparent that Huey is a block that would be inconsistent with Fetch reprints, we have a very different story all together.
That said, as I've iterated repeatedly, don't sell what you need. Don't unload them just because reprints will happen "soon". Soon could mean 3 years from now, however unfortunate and unlikely that may be(Unlikely is a personal opinion on the matter). And if you *really* need them soon, then buy them. It's the price of Modern, and that's about all there is to it.
Keeping or selling at this point is simply an issue of greed, as you've already made at least 100% profit even if you bought them at $30, and I'm talking about SCG buy list price. Sure you can gamble and maybe make some more money, but you are just as likely going to loose all that profit now. To each his own, I've sold mine, cause $1k cash is enough for me to do other things I want to do at the moment, best of luck to those who choose to keep them!
I think you're missing the point on why people are keeping/buying them. People still want them because they have them to PLAY with, not to make a profit. I still have my fetches because I'd rather be able to still play than sell them off and hope for a reprint. I know that if I sold them now and they AREN'T reprinted this fall, I'll lose quite a bit of flexibility in Legacy for a long time. Greed can be seen the opposite way: it is greedy to be so insistent on making a "profit." It is greedy to simply hope for a reprint at some undetermined time in the future.
Which is why I've been telling people who actually need them to keep them. If people are seriously considering selling off their fetches right now due to the exorbitant prices on them, perhaps Modern isn't the format for them. If people are buying them because they think they'll retain value, they need to seriously reconsider their thought processes. If people are holding onto them without any current plans to ever use them, it's a waste of potential cash flow to fund what they really want to be playing.
The point here is that the ship for all of these lines of thought is starting to sail from port, and fast. If you seriously need them in the very near future, then buy them now. Even if they are reprinted this fall, they won't drop between now and about 5 months or so. I seriously doubt they'll spike *again* between then and now, though they may (Historic trends have them spiking about was every 6 months; the question is if the current prices can actually *hold* or if there is room to grow).
The point is don't just get rid of things you actually *need*; that's just asinine. See my previous posts; it's part and parcel with playing eternal formats (And modern in particular) that sometimes you just have to accept that you will take a hit. There's never really going to be a "safe" time to sell for you, period. There will be a safe time to sell if you planned on unloading them anyway, and that time is in the very near future, probably in the next 3-4 months at most.
I will note that there are certain red flags to look for in the next few months that could be ques for fetchlands returning. If the fall set pushes mono-colored even more than it currently is, it's a bit of sign of something on the horizon. Fewer multicolored creatures would at least hint less of a "need" for conventional dual lands, and would reinforce the concept of such a set. If it hints on a land or color matters theme, it should pique the interest of anyone at all and immediately raise a red flag. If Landfall (Or similar land-based ability), for whatever reason at all, shows up in M15 then you might as well just drop them immediately (Note, I'm not saying it will or not, nor speculating on it coming in M15, just noting that if it does occur). Now, none of these are certainties when discussing reprints; we don't have that luxury at all. But they *are* things to keep in mind in the upcoming months, and something to look out for if there are those actually considering unloading their fetchlands.
If, however, it's apparent that Huey is a block that would be inconsistent with Fetch reprints, we have a very different story all together.
That said, as I've iterated repeatedly, don't sell what you need. Don't unload them just because reprints will happen "soon". Soon could mean 3 years from now, however unfortunate and unlikely that may be(Unlikely is a personal opinion on the matter). And if you *really* need them soon, then buy them. It's the price of Modern, and that's about all there is to it.
I have to agree with your post. I am switching to Affinity for a few reasons:
1. I want to have a better chance at winning in my highly competitive LGS, lol...
2. I want to move away from decks that require fetch lands, as well as cease investing in modern other than buying the occasional upgrades for my current decks.
3. I need the money to finish my Affinity deck and I am moving away from multi-colored burn as the fetches + shocks = too much damage from lands. I have literally had close matches that I ended up losing due to taking that extra 2 or 3 damage from those lands in my burn deck.
In the end, I realized that I only want 2 or 3 decks for modern. None of which absolutely need fetches to be successful. I think fetches, as others have said, only benefit those who play 3 (or more) colored decks.
P.S. - I know Grim Lavamancer does benefit from fetch lands, but you can substitute Gemstone Mines since they too hit the graveyard, but without the who taking damage part.
I have one of each fetchland right now(ONS and ZEN) and feel like unloading them all to get a couple of duals. I feel like it would be good to do so for trade since I would value the duals more in the long run(considering a possible reprint).
How much value might the fetches lose in a reprint?
Assuming they aren't reprinted at mythic (which would be greeted with nothing but rancor from the players), I would expect prices to drop 40-50%; that's what happened with Remand recently. But this would be short-term; the price would start to rise again after only a few months and would probably be back to pre-reprint values after a year. You need multiple rounds of reprints (Modern Masters, core sets, etc.).
I think that the following is the most likely to occur, so here are the assumptions I am going to make:
1) Reprinted in a large standard legal set
2) Printed at rare
3) No more than 5 in the large set (maybe the other 5 spread across the small sets)
GIVEN these assumptions...
Because I don't know what their price will be if/when this occurs, I can't say how much they will fall, but we can reasonably guess that the reprinted versions will fall somewhere between $10 and $20 upon release. I don't see the Zendikar fetches being much more expensive because Zendikar was pretty heavily printed and in new border, so I'd expect Thoughtseize level prices. Onslaught, on the other hand, I could see being a bit more expensive because they are from a much older set and have different (BETTER in my opinion) borders.
I unloaded all of mine including my personal playset and decked copies. The last 8 I has (4 mesas, 4 mistys) fetched 5 tropical islands. There was a small window where you could trade or buylist fetches for close to dual land prices and anything that is critical to the modern format can be reprinted so I'd rather not risk it.
While I don't need the trops (they aren't very useful in legacy without fetches, the are very liquid and easy to unload when needed
I think that the following is the most likely to occur, so here are the assumptions I am going to make:
1) Reprinted in a large standard legal set
2) Printed at rare
3) No more than 5 in the large set (maybe the other 5 spread across the small sets)
GIVEN these assumptions...
Because I don't know what their price will be if/when this occurs, I can't say how much they will fall, but we can reasonably guess that the reprinted versions will fall somewhere between $10 and $20 upon release. I don't see the Zendikar fetches being much more expensive because Zendikar was pretty heavily printed and in new border, so I'd expect Thoughtseize level prices. Onslaught, on the other hand, I could see being a bit more expensive because they are from a much older set and have different (BETTER in my opinion) borders.
The price could possibly drop quite a bit a raise quite a bit depending on how the new card layout/design and holograms on the new cards are received, along with how fast reprints of other cards come after the new layout/design is introduced.
Right now, there are people who like only new border or prefer old border and some purchase decisions are based on this. If all ten are reprinted, they will all have the same border so I could see a scenario where the new fetches are actually in demand more then old bordered fetches, since the deck will have consistent design. This could lead to a pretty big drop in old prices, bigger than something like Thoughtseize, since more than just art changed
I got rid of mine too (sold to SCG since there wasn't serious interest on Craigslist where I had them for about the same price.) I bought them for this exact reason, though I never dreamed they would be this much higher.
Good luck to all those holding out for more money. I hope it pays off, I just didn't have the balls to keep holding on to them.
I just sold my play set of Arid Mesa today. Quite frankly I am pretty happy, since the money is better needed for paying off some bills. Plus I feel like I removed a target off my back
As for those hoping to get more cash, I wish you luck, but I think WotC is going to reprint them in the next year or so. It is self evident that they are taking Modern vary seriously compared to Legacy and Vintage, especially with reprints. I can't justify owning expensive cards for a game I play 4 times a month.
I also think a reprint is likely, but I increasingly don't think a reprint is going to drop the price that much, considering the number of people who would buy fetches if they dropped even a little, or are waiting but planning to buy them after a reprint, or sold them to buy back in at that point; it seems a reprint may raise demand more than supply a la Modern Masters! It would also either be in a highly limited product that would only marginally increase the supply or in a standard legal set that would open them to new demand from Standard players rather than go exclusively to modern/legacy.
Even if fetches do go down in price, if that causes more people to break in, the other staples will go up so the net cost of a deck won't drop much either.
I also think a reprint is likely, but I increasingly don't think a reprint is going to drop the price that much, considering the number of people who would buy fetches if they dropped even a little, or are waiting but planning to buy them after a reprint, or sold them to buy back in at that point; it seems a reprint may raise demand more than supply a la Modern Masters! It would also either be in a highly limited product that would only marginally increase the supply or in a standard legal set that would open them to new demand from Standard players rather than go exclusively to modern/legacy.
Even if fetches do go down in price, if that causes more people to break in, the other staples will go up so the net cost of a deck won't drop much either.
I agree with what you are saying, and the smart person would invest in cheaper cards that are yet to be in the spot light.
I also think a reprint is likely, but I increasingly don't think a reprint is going to drop the price that much, considering the number of people who would buy fetches if they dropped even a little, or are waiting but planning to buy them after a reprint, or sold them to buy back in at that point; it seems a reprint may raise demand more than supply a la Modern Masters! It would also either be in a highly limited product that would only marginally increase the supply or in a standard legal set that would open them to new demand from Standard players rather than go exclusively to modern/legacy.
Even if fetches do go down in price, if that causes more people to break in, the other staples will go up so the net cost of a deck won't drop much either.
I somewhat disagree with this. I am firmly of the belief that they will reprint all 10 fetches because the best way to lower the price is to reduce demand. If you think about it, the Zen fetches are as high as they are because they are the only legal fetches in Modern. If/when they add the Onslaught fetches, then there will be twice as many options for the same number of decks (in theory) which will reduce the need on the Zen fetches somewhat proportionally. There is no value in Legacy, where they are all legal, to running the old fetches over the new ones unless they are on color. This is what should happen in Modern as well, except that in Modern there is a greater incentive to run basics because of the life cost of shocks. Thus, on color fetches will be even more important.
To be clear, I am not predicting $10 fetches, but I think that $40/25 for the blue and non-blue is not an unreasonable place for them to drop to.
If they are reprinted in a standard set/block, $40/$25 is much too high. If the last two blocks are any indication, you'd have at least 5 fetches per large set and 2-3 per small set. Boxes of in-print sets are about $90 retail. 10 rares in a block sitting at $25-40 is unsustainable, as there's way too much incentive (expected value) to crack boxes for resale at that price.
Your expected prices average out to $31 per fetch. If you figure 5 of them in a large set, you would expect 3 of them in the average box. The fetches alone would pay for the boxes, and that's at retail prices.
I could see them going back to $40/$25 a few years after rotation, but no way they would stay at those prices will in-print. You wouldn't even need to put a single other constructed-playable card in the set to move boxes. If they were reprinted in something with a more limited print run, perhaps.
If Fetches are five fetches are reprinted in a large set, the price will drop. At $40/$25 you are predicting the only thing people will want from this set is fetches, as on avg you will get about 3 fetches per box. So, box value on fetches alone would be ~$75. Who wouldn't buy boxes?
They will drop, probably to $20 or below. While a set is in print, WotC will meet demand, so at that time fetches will be able to drop pretty far, If for some reason the set they are reprinted in is not the most opened set in history, then all product will be opened by stores to sell as singles. If avg box price is less than cost, stores have more reason to open up for singles.
If your talking about current art fetches dropping, there is all new factors,that will be at work. Newer fetches should be harder to counterfeit, due to new card features. Will people be willing to pay for this? If so, I think the current and nee fetches will equal out, maybe a 10%-20% premium for the older fetches. If people don't like the appearance of the new cards, then I think old fetches could demand as much as 50% more than new fetches, if the art is also worse, then maybe up to 75% more. I don't see a scenario where people currently buying fetches don't lose at least half the money they put in. For their sake, hope they enjoy,playing their decks now.
If Fetches are five fetches are reprinted in a large set, the price will drop. At $40/$25 you are predicting the only thing people will want from this set is fetches, as on avg you will get about 3 fetches per box. So, box value on fetches alone would be ~$75. Who wouldn't buy boxes?
They will drop, probably to $20 or below. While a set is in print, WotC will meet demand, so at that time fetches will be able to drop pretty far, If for some reason the set they are reprinted in is not the most opened set in history, then all product will be opened by stores to sell as singles. If avg box price is less than cost, stores have more reason to open up for singles.
If your talking about current art fetches dropping, there is all new factors,that will be at work. Newer fetches should be harder to counterfeit, due to new card features. Will people be willing to pay for this? If so, I think the current and nee fetches will equal out, maybe a 10%-20% premium for the older fetches. If people don't like the appearance of the new cards, then I think old fetches could demand as much as 50% more than new fetches, if the art is also worse, then maybe up to 75% more. I don't see a scenario where people currently buying fetches don't lose at least half the money they put in. For their sake, hope they enjoy,playing their decks now.
Couldn't agree more. I am down to my last few fetches that I am actively looking to trade. As has been noted throughout the thread, there may still be room for growth on the fetches until reprint, but I am more than happy with the profit to be had right now.
Edit: Just saw something interesting. Both Cape Fear Games and SCG have lowered their buy price on Misty Rainforest and Scalding Tarn to $60 at CFG and $50 at SCG. That is a pretty significant drop from the $70 they were both at a few weeks ago.
If Fetches are five fetches are reprinted in a large set, the price will drop. At $40/$25 you are predicting the only thing people will want from this set is fetches, as on avg you will get about 3 fetches per box. So, box value on fetches alone would be ~$75. Who wouldn't buy boxes?
I think your math is off. A box will have 30 rares, 4 of which will by mythics. So you'll get 26 actual rares, and since a large set has 53 rares, you're only talking 2.5 fetches per box. Still, any set where you have at least 5 rares worth $20 each is a pretty good buy at MSRP. We haven't seen that since Lorwyn block (because, no surprise, they introduced Mythic rarity after that).
Now, if they printed fetch lands at mythic, people's heads would explode.
If Fetches are five fetches are reprinted in a large set, the price will drop. At $40/$25 you are predicting the only thing people will want from this set is fetches, as on avg you will get about 3 fetches per box. So, box value on fetches alone would be ~$75. Who wouldn't buy boxes?
They will drop, probably to $20 or below. While a set is in print, WotC will meet demand, so at that time fetches will be able to drop pretty far, If for some reason the set they are reprinted in is not the most opened set in history, then all product will be opened by stores to sell as singles. If avg box price is less than cost, stores have more reason to open up for singles.
If your talking about current art fetches dropping, there is all new factors,that will be at work. Newer fetches should be harder to counterfeit, due to new card features. Will people be willing to pay for this? If so, I think the current and nee fetches will equal out, maybe a 10%-20% premium for the older fetches. If people don't like the appearance of the new cards, then I think old fetches could demand as much as 50% more than new fetches, if the art is also worse, then maybe up to 75% more. I don't see a scenario where people currently buying fetches don't lose at least half the money they put in. For their sake, hope they enjoy,playing their decks now.
Couldn't agree more. I am down to my last few fetches that I am actively looking to trade. As has been noted throughout the thread, there may still be room for growth on the fetches until reprint, but I am more than happy with the profit to be had right now.
Edit: Just saw something interesting. Both Cape Fear Games and SCG have lowered their buy price on Misty Rainforest and Scalding Tarn to $60 at CFG and $50 at SCG. That is a pretty significant drop from the $70 they were both at a few weeks ago.
The price drop was explained by Ben in the closed SCG thread. It's still on the first page.
I see that you are a bit sensitive to any talk about SCG from that thread. I get it though, I didn't see his post because I haven't gone in that thread knowing that it was going to be a tired and stupid argument.
To clarify, I am not making any judgment positive or negative on SCG with my observation. I thought it was interesting that unlike most staples that spike, it seems that fetches have hit their relative peak for now and are settling lower. An observation that seems particularly relevant to the discussion in this thread.
If Fetches are five fetches are reprinted in a large set, the price will drop. At $40/$25 you are predicting the only thing people will want from this set is fetches, as on avg you will get about 3 fetches per box. So, box value on fetches alone would be ~$75. Who wouldn't buy boxes?
I think your math is off. A box will have 30 rares, 4 of which will by mythics. So you'll get 26 actual rares, and since a large set has 53 rares, you're only talking 2.5 fetches per box. Still, any set where you have at least 5 rares worth $20 each is a pretty good buy at MSRP. We haven't seen that since Lorwyn block (because, no surprise, they introduced Mythic rarity after that).
Now, if they printed fetch lands at mythic, people's heads would explode.
Forgive me if I've missed something important on this earlier in the thread, but don't normal booster boxes contain 36 packs with 4.5 mythics on average per box, thusly leaving you with 31.5 rares/box out of a possible 53, (31.5/53)x5= 2.97 (or basically 3) fetches per box for a standard large set with 5 fetches. Realistically, I could see the fetches dropping to around $15-$20 again if the set is more than just fetches for cards people would be wanting to open, and people bought into the set similarly to RTR for example.
Personally I would say to wait until modern season before offloading fetches unless you are worried about conspiracy throwing a curveball and including the fetches there for some reason. The increased demand from modern season getting going will boost them up a bit, and provide a solid opportunity to sell for this year fairly risk free of a sudden reprint that would lead to a tanking in value. Of course we don't know how many people may be thinking about doing something similar, so for all we know, the supply online could skyrocket right around modern season and the prices may not move, or could even drop some if the supply jump is too much vs demand. Guess we will have to wait and see.
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Wizards plans are long term, and players won't accept or understand that.
RIP Karn EDH
I think you're missing the point on why people are keeping/buying them. People still want them because they have them to PLAY with, not to make a profit. I still have my fetches because I'd rather be able to still play than sell them off and hope for a reprint. I know that if I sold them now and they AREN'T reprinted this fall, I'll lose quite a bit of flexibility in Legacy for a long time. Greed can be seen the opposite way: it is greedy to be so insistent on making a "profit." It is greedy to simply hope for a reprint at some undetermined time in the future.
RIP Karn EDH
Which is why I've been telling people who actually need them to keep them. If people are seriously considering selling off their fetches right now due to the exorbitant prices on them, perhaps Modern isn't the format for them. If people are buying them because they think they'll retain value, they need to seriously reconsider their thought processes. If people are holding onto them without any current plans to ever use them, it's a waste of potential cash flow to fund what they really want to be playing.
The point here is that the ship for all of these lines of thought is starting to sail from port, and fast. If you seriously need them in the very near future, then buy them now. Even if they are reprinted this fall, they won't drop between now and about 5 months or so. I seriously doubt they'll spike *again* between then and now, though they may (Historic trends have them spiking about was every 6 months; the question is if the current prices can actually *hold* or if there is room to grow).
The point is don't just get rid of things you actually *need*; that's just asinine. See my previous posts; it's part and parcel with playing eternal formats (And modern in particular) that sometimes you just have to accept that you will take a hit. There's never really going to be a "safe" time to sell for you, period. There will be a safe time to sell if you planned on unloading them anyway, and that time is in the very near future, probably in the next 3-4 months at most.
I will note that there are certain red flags to look for in the next few months that could be ques for fetchlands returning. If the fall set pushes mono-colored even more than it currently is, it's a bit of sign of something on the horizon. Fewer multicolored creatures would at least hint less of a "need" for conventional dual lands, and would reinforce the concept of such a set. If it hints on a land or color matters theme, it should pique the interest of anyone at all and immediately raise a red flag. If Landfall (Or similar land-based ability), for whatever reason at all, shows up in M15 then you might as well just drop them immediately (Note, I'm not saying it will or not, nor speculating on it coming in M15, just noting that if it does occur). Now, none of these are certainties when discussing reprints; we don't have that luxury at all. But they *are* things to keep in mind in the upcoming months, and something to look out for if there are those actually considering unloading their fetchlands.
If, however, it's apparent that Huey is a block that would be inconsistent with Fetch reprints, we have a very different story all together.
That said, as I've iterated repeatedly, don't sell what you need. Don't unload them just because reprints will happen "soon". Soon could mean 3 years from now, however unfortunate and unlikely that may be(Unlikely is a personal opinion on the matter). And if you *really* need them soon, then buy them. It's the price of Modern, and that's about all there is to it.
I have to agree with your post. I am switching to Affinity for a few reasons:
1. I want to have a better chance at winning in my highly competitive LGS, lol...
2. I want to move away from decks that require fetch lands, as well as cease investing in modern other than buying the occasional upgrades for my current decks.
3. I need the money to finish my Affinity deck and I am moving away from multi-colored burn as the fetches + shocks = too much damage from lands. I have literally had close matches that I ended up losing due to taking that extra 2 or 3 damage from those lands in my burn deck.
In the end, I realized that I only want 2 or 3 decks for modern. None of which absolutely need fetches to be successful. I think fetches, as others have said, only benefit those who play 3 (or more) colored decks.
P.S. - I know Grim Lavamancer does benefit from fetch lands, but you can substitute Gemstone Mines since they too hit the graveyard, but without the who taking damage part.
How much value might the fetches lose in a reprint?
1) Reprinted in a large standard legal set
2) Printed at rare
3) No more than 5 in the large set (maybe the other 5 spread across the small sets)
GIVEN these assumptions...
Because I don't know what their price will be if/when this occurs, I can't say how much they will fall, but we can reasonably guess that the reprinted versions will fall somewhere between $10 and $20 upon release. I don't see the Zendikar fetches being much more expensive because Zendikar was pretty heavily printed and in new border, so I'd expect Thoughtseize level prices. Onslaught, on the other hand, I could see being a bit more expensive because they are from a much older set and have different (BETTER in my opinion) borders.
While I don't need the trops (they aren't very useful in legacy without fetches, the are very liquid and easy to unload when needed
The price could possibly drop quite a bit a raise quite a bit depending on how the new card layout/design and holograms on the new cards are received, along with how fast reprints of other cards come after the new layout/design is introduced.
Right now, there are people who like only new border or prefer old border and some purchase decisions are based on this. If all ten are reprinted, they will all have the same border so I could see a scenario where the new fetches are actually in demand more then old bordered fetches, since the deck will have consistent design. This could lead to a pretty big drop in old prices, bigger than something like Thoughtseize, since more than just art changed
Good luck to all those holding out for more money. I hope it pays off, I just didn't have the balls to keep holding on to them.
As for those hoping to get more cash, I wish you luck, but I think WotC is going to reprint them in the next year or so. It is self evident that they are taking Modern vary seriously compared to Legacy and Vintage, especially with reprints. I can't justify owning expensive cards for a game I play 4 times a month.
I'm guessing this also applies to fetches.
Knowing this they could be reprinted at any time.
Even if fetches do go down in price, if that causes more people to break in, the other staples will go up so the net cost of a deck won't drop much either.
I agree with what you are saying, and the smart person would invest in cheaper cards that are yet to be in the spot light.
RIP Karn EDH
I somewhat disagree with this. I am firmly of the belief that they will reprint all 10 fetches because the best way to lower the price is to reduce demand. If you think about it, the Zen fetches are as high as they are because they are the only legal fetches in Modern. If/when they add the Onslaught fetches, then there will be twice as many options for the same number of decks (in theory) which will reduce the need on the Zen fetches somewhat proportionally. There is no value in Legacy, where they are all legal, to running the old fetches over the new ones unless they are on color. This is what should happen in Modern as well, except that in Modern there is a greater incentive to run basics because of the life cost of shocks. Thus, on color fetches will be even more important.
To be clear, I am not predicting $10 fetches, but I think that $40/25 for the blue and non-blue is not an unreasonable place for them to drop to.
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=10498534#post10498534
Your expected prices average out to $31 per fetch. If you figure 5 of them in a large set, you would expect 3 of them in the average box. The fetches alone would pay for the boxes, and that's at retail prices.
I could see them going back to $40/$25 a few years after rotation, but no way they would stay at those prices will in-print. You wouldn't even need to put a single other constructed-playable card in the set to move boxes. If they were reprinted in something with a more limited print run, perhaps.
Rancored Elf will cancel your order if prices go up. Read about him and other shady vendors here.
My Trade Thread!
They will drop, probably to $20 or below. While a set is in print, WotC will meet demand, so at that time fetches will be able to drop pretty far, If for some reason the set they are reprinted in is not the most opened set in history, then all product will be opened by stores to sell as singles. If avg box price is less than cost, stores have more reason to open up for singles.
If your talking about current art fetches dropping, there is all new factors,that will be at work. Newer fetches should be harder to counterfeit, due to new card features. Will people be willing to pay for this? If so, I think the current and nee fetches will equal out, maybe a 10%-20% premium for the older fetches. If people don't like the appearance of the new cards, then I think old fetches could demand as much as 50% more than new fetches, if the art is also worse, then maybe up to 75% more. I don't see a scenario where people currently buying fetches don't lose at least half the money they put in. For their sake, hope they enjoy,playing their decks now.
Couldn't agree more. I am down to my last few fetches that I am actively looking to trade. As has been noted throughout the thread, there may still be room for growth on the fetches until reprint, but I am more than happy with the profit to be had right now.
Edit: Just saw something interesting. Both Cape Fear Games and SCG have lowered their buy price on Misty Rainforest and Scalding Tarn to $60 at CFG and $50 at SCG. That is a pretty significant drop from the $70 they were both at a few weeks ago.
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=10498534#post10498534
I think your math is off. A box will have 30 rares, 4 of which will by mythics. So you'll get 26 actual rares, and since a large set has 53 rares, you're only talking 2.5 fetches per box. Still, any set where you have at least 5 rares worth $20 each is a pretty good buy at MSRP. We haven't seen that since Lorwyn block (because, no surprise, they introduced Mythic rarity after that).
Now, if they printed fetch lands at mythic, people's heads would explode.
The price drop was explained by Ben in the closed SCG thread. It's still on the first page.
To clarify, I am not making any judgment positive or negative on SCG with my observation. I thought it was interesting that unlike most staples that spike, it seems that fetches have hit their relative peak for now and are settling lower. An observation that seems particularly relevant to the discussion in this thread.
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=10498534#post10498534
Forgive me if I've missed something important on this earlier in the thread, but don't normal booster boxes contain 36 packs with 4.5 mythics on average per box, thusly leaving you with 31.5 rares/box out of a possible 53, (31.5/53)x5= 2.97 (or basically 3) fetches per box for a standard large set with 5 fetches. Realistically, I could see the fetches dropping to around $15-$20 again if the set is more than just fetches for cards people would be wanting to open, and people bought into the set similarly to RTR for example.
Personally I would say to wait until modern season before offloading fetches unless you are worried about conspiracy throwing a curveball and including the fetches there for some reason. The increased demand from modern season getting going will boost them up a bit, and provide a solid opportunity to sell for this year fairly risk free of a sudden reprint that would lead to a tanking in value. Of course we don't know how many people may be thinking about doing something similar, so for all we know, the supply online could skyrocket right around modern season and the prices may not move, or could even drop some if the supply jump is too much vs demand. Guess we will have to wait and see.