I got all of my fetchlands for sub $10, and just recently cashed my check from buylisting them. Turning less than than $200 into over $1000 is an insane margin for any investment, and I have no regrets cashing out as a 20-something graduating with college debt this May.
As always, what you should do is dependent on what risks you want to invoke, and what your priorities are. For now, I'm fine skipping and just cubing until modern, a format based on eligibility to reprint, has cheaper fetchlands.
I wish you all luck on whatever decision you make! I am happy with my outcome, no matter what happens in the coming months.
Forgive me if I've missed something important on this earlier in the thread, but don't normal booster boxes contain 36 packs with 4.5 mythics on average per box, thusly leaving you with 31.5 rares/box out of a possible 53, (31.5/53)x5= 2.97 (or basically 3) fetches per box for a standard large set with 5 fetches. Realistically, I could see the fetches dropping to around $15-$20 again if the set is more than just fetches for cards people would be wanting to open, and people bought into the set similarly to RTR for example.
No, you're right, and it was my math that was wrong. Math is hard.
I think this is more due to an influx of people selling off their fetches (not knowledge of a reprint announcement). Obviously I have no proof but that seems like the more likely scenario... so fetches should dip a little now and bump up even more come modern season and keep growing until a reprint is announced.
I'm thinking they will reprint the fetchlands ( all ten ) in conspiracy. They are not overpowered in a draft format, and don't forget that they will be selling individual packs of this, so this would sell the set to more serious players. also, it would not put the onslaught fetchlands in modern. It seems plausible to me.
I'm thinking they will reprint the fetchlands ( all ten ) in conspiracy. They are not overpowered in a draft format, and don't forget that they will be selling individual packs of this, so this would sell the set to more serious players. also, it would not put the onslaught fetchlands in modern. It seems plausible to me.
I think that this would be a very bad move. If you put chase cards of that caliber into a "fun" product, then the target audience will never get any, as competitive players will buy it all up. How many EDH players got their hands on Mind Seize before WOTC decided to double-print it?
The reprint will likely happen in a fall set, that will be opened for 9 months so that everyone can have a chance to get them. See Thoughtseize. A quirky, short-term set like Conspiracy just won't put enough on the market.
As for that making the ONS fetches modern-legal: Yay.
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I'm thinking they will reprint the fetchlands ( all ten ) in conspiracy. They are not overpowered in a draft format, and don't forget that they will be selling individual packs of this, so this would sell the set to more serious players. also, it would not put the onslaught fetchlands in modern. It seems plausible to me.
There is almost no chance at all WotC puts the ONS fetches in a modern frame while not making them legal in modern. They are well aware of the confusion that could cause for some players. The last thing they want is players being DQ'd for using cards they thought were legal in Modern.
I'm thinking they will reprint the fetchlands ( all ten ) in conspiracy. They are not overpowered in a draft format, and don't forget that they will be selling individual packs of this, so this would sell the set to more serious players. also, it would not put the onslaught fetchlands in modern. It seems plausible to me.
There is almost no chance at all WotC puts the ONS fetches in a modern frame while not making them legal in modern. They are well aware of the confusion that could cause for some players. The last thing they want is players being DQ'd for using cards they thought were legal in Modern.
The Judge promos are in Modern frame. I see no reason why they couldn't reprint it in Modern frame while keeping it only Legacy-legal. There are have been plenty of Modern-framed promos (High Tide, etc.) that aren't legal in Modern.
I for one think they'll print fetches in standard again at some point... simply because they are safe in standard and will suppress the price more (and longer) than including them in a supplemental product... and if WOTC wants modern to be accessible (which they do) then they want to drive the mana base cost as far down as possible. Think of it this way... if they print them in MM2 (or conspiracy)... the prices will go down for a small period and then just keep getting more and more out of hand... if they print them in standard, then they will crash like shocks and stay down for the 2 years they are in standard and likely a little longer. Why temporarily address a problem like this when they can have a longer term solution... AND generate more sales in one swing? WOTC certainly can come to this same conclusion... so in my mind the only way this doesn't happen is if WOTC did not foresee fetches getting this out of hand this quickly... since they have a long lead time in set development... if they are only reacting now, then the earliest we could see fetches is likely next summer since Huey/Duey/Luey is too far along at this point.
Hopefully they did see this coming though and they are in fall 2014... otherwise we are in for a rough ride leading up to the next block or MM2... but as said above... even MM2 would not dent the prices enough in my opinion... and I think WOTC knows that. That's not to say they won't be in MM2... just that I don't think they will ONLY be in MM2 (whenever that is). If they are in MM2, then that will just be as a bandaid until they can reprint them in standard. At this point I have to think WOTC will be making it a high priority to get these in standard as they want Modern to thrive.
So in terms of unloading them now... not a bad idea if you got them back in Zendikar... You'll make a tidy profit and minimize risk. I for one am trying to sell mine but am in no rush (i.e. I'm waiting for serious buyers who aren't lowballing me)... People need to realize it all comes down to the amount of risk you are comfortable with because if the fetches are not in this fall set then they are only going to go higher and even then they will go up in the coming modern season. Everyone knows the reprint is coming... but until then people need cards to play with so the price is only going up.
1. they won't reprint fetches for friendly in Modern, but for legacy to keep a divide. Thus creating a price explosion for enemy fetches to change roles with Friendly in value.
2. They reprint friendly fetches in the big set of 3 and print enemy man lands in the smaller 2 sets. Opposite of Zendikar.
3. They reprint Enemy Fetches in a random set to weird us out.
If you have extra or will never play fetches; I would sell, but I think you missed the boat on the blue ones as they have been declining slightly in auctions on ebay. I am never selling my playsets cause I use them a lot (collector). Foils are the ones to sell right now.
Now, if they printed fetch lands at mythic, people's heads would explode.
Ok, that would be really funny. They'd never do it (have there been any mythic lands?), but having allied fetches only available as mythics in modern would be such a fun spectacle to witness.
As always, what you should do is dependent on what risks you want to invoke, and what your priorities are. For now, I'm fine skipping and just cubing until modern, a format based on eligibility to reprint, has cheaper fetchlands.
I wish you all luck on whatever decision you make! I am happy with my outcome, no matter what happens in the coming months.
My current trade thread.
No, you're right, and it was my math that was wrong. Math is hard.
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Will this trend continue? Reprint announcement around the corner?
I think that this would be a very bad move. If you put chase cards of that caliber into a "fun" product, then the target audience will never get any, as competitive players will buy it all up. How many EDH players got their hands on Mind Seize before WOTC decided to double-print it?
The reprint will likely happen in a fall set, that will be opened for 9 months so that everyone can have a chance to get them. See Thoughtseize. A quirky, short-term set like Conspiracy just won't put enough on the market.
As for that making the ONS fetches modern-legal: Yay.
There is almost no chance at all WotC puts the ONS fetches in a modern frame while not making them legal in modern. They are well aware of the confusion that could cause for some players. The last thing they want is players being DQ'd for using cards they thought were legal in Modern.
The Judge promos are in Modern frame. I see no reason why they couldn't reprint it in Modern frame while keeping it only Legacy-legal. There are have been plenty of Modern-framed promos (High Tide, etc.) that aren't legal in Modern.
Hopefully they did see this coming though and they are in fall 2014... otherwise we are in for a rough ride leading up to the next block or MM2... but as said above... even MM2 would not dent the prices enough in my opinion... and I think WOTC knows that. That's not to say they won't be in MM2... just that I don't think they will ONLY be in MM2 (whenever that is). If they are in MM2, then that will just be as a bandaid until they can reprint them in standard. At this point I have to think WOTC will be making it a high priority to get these in standard as they want Modern to thrive.
So in terms of unloading them now... not a bad idea if you got them back in Zendikar... You'll make a tidy profit and minimize risk. I for one am trying to sell mine but am in no rush (i.e. I'm waiting for serious buyers who aren't lowballing me)... People need to realize it all comes down to the amount of risk you are comfortable with because if the fetches are not in this fall set then they are only going to go higher and even then they will go up in the coming modern season. Everyone knows the reprint is coming... but until then people need cards to play with so the price is only going up.
I know several people that will buy boxes if they hit a standard set
1. they won't reprint fetches for friendly in Modern, but for legacy to keep a divide. Thus creating a price explosion for enemy fetches to change roles with Friendly in value.
2. They reprint friendly fetches in the big set of 3 and print enemy man lands in the smaller 2 sets. Opposite of Zendikar.
3. They reprint Enemy Fetches in a random set to weird us out.
If you have extra or will never play fetches; I would sell, but I think you missed the boat on the blue ones as they have been declining slightly in auctions on ebay. I am never selling my playsets cause I use them a lot (collector). Foils are the ones to sell right now.
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Modern BUMill and Bant Spirits.
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Ok, that would be really funny. They'd never do it (have there been any mythic lands?), but having allied fetches only available as mythics in modern would be such a fun spectacle to witness.