So with the recent price hike of fetches...I'm very tempted to start trading mine for ABU duals and Tarmogoyfs, just wondering what you all the the long term value prognosis is for fetches vs Goyfs. To me a Goyf reprint is not likely in the near future.
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Current Modern decks BGW Junk / URB Grixis Shadow / RGB Lantern Control / WUBCBant Eldrazi
Current Legacy decks BUG Shardless BUG / UWR Predict Miracles / RUG Canadian Thresh / WRBG 4c Loam UB Reanimator
It seems like a good time to unload them if you have them. The prices really can't get too much higher, since they're starting to reach the upper limit on revised duals.
It's a very good time to trade them in. I really don't see how Wizards can afford to hold off on reprinting them in the next two years with such a high demand. I guess you could hold out and hope it goes up a few more dollars in value, but I think we're pretty much nearing the highest value that they'll be at. $90+ for Tarns and Mistys is completely insane. If you want to get into Legacy or pick up ABU duals I'd definitely go for it right now while you have the chance.
They're all going to be reprinted, so I think the long-term risk vs goyfs is really the same/just as likely. Just sell off a couple months before you think a reprint will be announced. Good luck trading for duals though, I would think that's still not too easy to pull off.
Do we all tend to believe that the Onslaught fetches will get a reprint as well?
If they were the only ones to get a reprint, would that slow the absurd momentum the Zendikar fetches currently have?
I'd dump the fetches and buy revised Tropical Islands and bayous, I know that's pretty specific but I think that's the revised duals that still have some good room to grow, Tundra isn't too shaby either I guess. I'm not sure I'd be too interested in hording tarmogoyfs myself since they will be reprinted and should go down in value as it's one of the most popular cards in modern and they want that format to be healthy. Not only that but tarmo just spiked, I can't imagine it going much higher so you're basically buying in at a peak. Trading is tough, I've had much better luck just selling and then using cash to buy the dual lands I want - people want obscene trade values for their dual lands, often it's easier to simply sell the cards you wanted to trade and then just use that cash to buy the duals for more fair prices (in my experience people want above store selling prices plus premium on their duals vs buying them below store prices on here/MOTL/eBay - MOTL being my preference lately..). I also wouldn't buy ABU dual lands, could be wrong on this one but personally most people aren't really as interested in those as they are in revised duals are they are functionally the exact same and are cheaper. You're going to find many times more people interested in functionality over collect-ability and coolness.
I could see Wizards only reprinting Zendikar ones, in a MM2 or judge foils. This would get around the "we have to print all 10 rule". It would still keep Onslaught fetches out of Modern
Some of this may come down to how much Wizards wants to keep Modern from being Legacy. At some point, it's only the cards which separate the format.
I could see Wizards only reprinting Zendikar ones, in a MM2 or judge foils. This would get around the "we have to print all 10 rule". It would still keep Onslaught fetches out of Modern
Some of this may come down to how much Wizards wants to keep Modern from being Legacy. At some point, it's only the cards which separate the format.
WotC doesn't want to "get around" the rule. WotC LIKES the rule. They want to follow the rule. They want all 10 fetches in Modern; it's only a question of how and when.
The formats are separate 99% because of the reserved list, and 1% because a lot of older cards are overpowered or broken and would have to be banned. By choosing to cut-off Modern at Mirrodin, they avoid the reserved list and most of the problem cards. But there's nothing "magic" about Mirrodin/8th; when Modern was first being created, they considered using cards all the way back to Mercadian Masques (post reserve list). It didn't happen because using the Modern frame as a rule of thumb made more sense. The fact that Onslaught fetches were thus excluded was an unfortunate, not intended, side-effect of the decision.
Sounds like a great time to sell. I have 2 Arid Mesa, 4 Misty Rainforest and 1 Wooded Foothills spare. At these prices I'm even tempted to get out the ones I have in decks and collection binders. I'll at least sell the spares. I could use the money and there's nothing expensive on my main wantlist, so cash sales seem like the way to go.
I have been thinking the same thing myself just because it will give me an opportunity to get some dual lands. Even if means tearing apart some of my decks.
Will they go up til they get reprinted? Likely yes. Do I think you should cash out now? Also yes. The thing about it is, when reprints hit, the fetches will likely be worth 20% or less of their current value. Sometimes it's not worth getting greedy.
If the fetches are printed in a standard set, expect it to be around the shockland prices.
I wouldn't quite say that. They are far more heavily used in Legacy than shocks simply due to the existence of A/B/U/R duals, which outclass shocklands and push them out. They are also featured more heavily in Modern decks than the shocks. Many decks don't even feature a full set of any given shock, but do feature entire playsets of fetchlands for various reasons.
They won't be as cheap as Shocks, methinks, due to how much more prolific they are. They will lose significant value, however.
Really, if you picked them up when they were $30 or so, there's no good reason not to sell them. Even if they aren't reprinted this year, they probaby won't gain *that* much more. And if you are looking to sell them, right now would be a fine time to do so. You would stand to make 100-200% return if you got them a year or two ago. Which is about as good as you could hope for reselling anything. You'd be making money hand over fist basically.
How would you guys recommend getting rid of them? I have one of each for EDH and I'd like to unload them but it feels like people aren't going to want to trade at these high prices.
I grab my zendikar fetch lands around $7.5 each when they were rotated. I have around 14 sets of them.
Should I sell them at 65% of SCG price ? (like $65 for mist rainforest) I think that is the price everyone willing to pay at the moment. Or wait till the price stabilize ?
I grab my zendikar fetch lands around $7.5 each when they were rotated. I have around 14 sets of them.
Should I sell them at 65% of SCG price ? (like $65 for mist rainforest) I think that is the price everyone willing to pay at the moment. Or wait till the price stabilize ?
Are you comfortably with an 800% profit margin?
You could wait, they could go up another 10-20 or more. But if you hav 14 sets, you obviously did it to make money. There is waiting to maximize your profits, and then there is just blinding yourself to profits you could already make. I would sell them at that price in a heartbeat right now. It's money hand over fist, and possible future returns aren't guaranteed. If you can sell them for that, do it. I don'tthink there's a good reason not to.
I grab my zendikar fetch lands around $7.5 each when they were rotated. I have around 14 sets of them.
Should I sell them at 65% of SCG price ? (like $65 for mist rainforest) I think that is the price everyone willing to pay at the moment. Or wait till the price stabilize ?
Are you comfortably with an 800% profit margin?
You could wait, they could go up another 10-20 or more. But if you hav 14 sets, you obviously did it to make money. There is waiting to maximize your profits, and then there is just blinding yourself to profits you could already make. I would sell them at that price in a heartbeat right now. It's money hand over fist, and possible future returns aren't guaranteed. If you can sell them for that, do it. I don'tthink there's a good reason not to.
800% profit margin is only for those blue ones.
Non-blue ones are way lower than that.
65% of SCG price is actually pretty bad. Maybe I should dump like half of my blue ones for that price. And keep the rest for a bit longer
EDH/Commander is a social format, right? So why don't people use their social skills to discuss what they like and don't like, instead of adopting a list with 60+ banned cards?
same, i traded away 2 playsets (verdant and marsh) for 2 underground seas
I'm hoping to swap out my playset of tarns for a playset of trops, I don't like any card that has that big a target on its head. I had around 40 fetches, unloaded half at the first jump and now started unloading my personal playsets that are not decked.
So here is my conundrum, I only have 1 set of fetches, which are Tarn's, but are the only fetches that are in my UWR modern deck. I bought them for just under $200 in January, so my net would be close to $200 Granted that deck isn't doing great right now anyway, the midrange version, and I've been thinking of dumping the tarn's, possibly picking up some Arid Mesa's (b/c they basically work exactly the same as the tarns in my UWr deck and probably wont crash as hard if they get reprinted) and using the money to finish up my modern merfolk deck which is basically complete outside of mutavaults. Kinda a hard decision as american geist has been kinda like my competitive baby, the first deck I've played competitively with and done pretty well, no big tournaments but have taken down a few LGS modern events with it.
I wouldn't move anything you need just because a reprint "is coming". That could mean playing with suboptimal decks for considerable time
This is a good point and one that isn't asserted often enough. One really has to consider the value of using pre-reprinted staples in their decks as non-zero. For me personally, its pretty significant.
Fetchland reprints have not even been announced yet. Even after they are announced, it takes months before the cards actually hit the stores.
I've noticed two major phenomena when it comes to reprints. The first price drop comes at announcement.
Step 1) The news breaks! There is an immediate price drop on ebay. This price drop is usually small to medium sized. 10% to 35% drop.
Step 2) The cards hit the market. Another small price drop. But not as much as one would think. The initial shock has already been priced into the market.
Step 3) The long haul. BIG DROP. Saturation of the market through continuous additional supply AFTER the hype of obtaining the new card has died down.
This is true, but for me its hard to weigh, make my UWr more suboptimal than it already is? and complete a full on competitive build, or keep it where it is and wait for the reprint to buy back into fetches? B/c I think we can all agree that the question is not if but when.
This is true, but for me its hard to weigh, make my UWr more suboptimal than it already is? and complete a full on competitive build, or keep it where it is and wait for the reprint to buy back into fetches? B/c I think we can all agree that the question is not if but when.
Okay, let me put it like this:
Are you comfortable playing with Arid Mesas over Scalding Tarns for the next 2-3 years in Modern until fetches are reprinted? Because we *really* don't know when they will be reprinted. I personally think this fall, but there is equally good reason to think next year or even the year after.
If you bought them to make money, it's not a bad time at all to shill them off, particularly if you bought them during Zendikar. As has been said, let somebody else worry about the last $10-20, you've made your money. The longer one would hold onto them, the greater the chance of losing is. If you can double your money since then, it's a great return. Anything more is just frosting. Yes, Tarns *could* go to $150 until reprint. And you would be kicking yourself for selling them at *only* $100. But if you can make a bundle, and you did it *to make money*, you're making a lot of money. Not as much as you could, but it's easy and safe money.
If you bought them to play with, then keep them. They likely won't tank in value completely; original Shocklands still command a strong price, after all. I imagine if you personally keep them, they will still retain about the same value as you paid for them even after announcement of reprint. I would think about it at that point if you think you need them. But don't just sell them because some of us (Me included) are having a bit of a speculation-fest that they are being printed soon.
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BGW Junk / URB Grixis Shadow / RGB Lantern Control / WUBCBant Eldrazi
Current Legacy decks
BUG Shardless BUG / UWR Predict Miracles / RUG Canadian Thresh / WRBG 4c Loam
UB Reanimator
If they were the only ones to get a reprint, would that slow the absurd momentum the Zendikar fetches currently have?
Some of this may come down to how much Wizards wants to keep Modern from being Legacy. At some point, it's only the cards which separate the format.
WotC doesn't want to "get around" the rule. WotC LIKES the rule. They want to follow the rule. They want all 10 fetches in Modern; it's only a question of how and when.
The formats are separate 99% because of the reserved list, and 1% because a lot of older cards are overpowered or broken and would have to be banned. By choosing to cut-off Modern at Mirrodin, they avoid the reserved list and most of the problem cards. But there's nothing "magic" about Mirrodin/8th; when Modern was first being created, they considered using cards all the way back to Mercadian Masques (post reserve list). It didn't happen because using the Modern frame as a rule of thumb made more sense. The fact that Onslaught fetches were thus excluded was an unfortunate, not intended, side-effect of the decision.
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I wouldn't quite say that. They are far more heavily used in Legacy than shocks simply due to the existence of A/B/U/R duals, which outclass shocklands and push them out. They are also featured more heavily in Modern decks than the shocks. Many decks don't even feature a full set of any given shock, but do feature entire playsets of fetchlands for various reasons.
They won't be as cheap as Shocks, methinks, due to how much more prolific they are. They will lose significant value, however.
Really, if you picked them up when they were $30 or so, there's no good reason not to sell them. Even if they aren't reprinted this year, they probaby won't gain *that* much more. And if you are looking to sell them, right now would be a fine time to do so. You would stand to make 100-200% return if you got them a year or two ago. Which is about as good as you could hope for reselling anything. You'd be making money hand over fist basically.
Should I sell them at 65% of SCG price ? (like $65 for mist rainforest) I think that is the price everyone willing to pay at the moment. Or wait till the price stabilize ?
Are you comfortably with an 800% profit margin?
You could wait, they could go up another 10-20 or more. But if you hav 14 sets, you obviously did it to make money. There is waiting to maximize your profits, and then there is just blinding yourself to profits you could already make. I would sell them at that price in a heartbeat right now. It's money hand over fist, and possible future returns aren't guaranteed. If you can sell them for that, do it. I don'tthink there's a good reason not to.
800% profit margin is only for those blue ones.
Non-blue ones are way lower than that.
65% of SCG price is actually pretty bad. Maybe I should dump like half of my blue ones for that price. And keep the rest for a bit longer
I'm hoping to swap out my playset of tarns for a playset of trops, I don't like any card that has that big a target on its head. I had around 40 fetches, unloaded half at the first jump and now started unloading my personal playsets that are not decked.
thoughts?
UWRMiraclesRWU
Modern
UWRControlRWU
Standard
Ummm no...
Trade Thread
This is a good point and one that isn't asserted often enough. One really has to consider the value of using pre-reprinted staples in their decks as non-zero. For me personally, its pretty significant.
Fetchland reprints have not even been announced yet. Even after they are announced, it takes months before the cards actually hit the stores.
I've noticed two major phenomena when it comes to reprints. The first price drop comes at announcement.
Step 1) The news breaks! There is an immediate price drop on ebay. This price drop is usually small to medium sized. 10% to 35% drop.
Step 2) The cards hit the market. Another small price drop. But not as much as one would think. The initial shock has already been priced into the market.
Step 3) The long haul. BIG DROP. Saturation of the market through continuous additional supply AFTER the hype of obtaining the new card has died down.
UWRMiraclesRWU
Modern
UWRControlRWU
Standard
Ummm no...
Trade Thread
Okay, let me put it like this:
Are you comfortable playing with Arid Mesas over Scalding Tarns for the next 2-3 years in Modern until fetches are reprinted? Because we *really* don't know when they will be reprinted. I personally think this fall, but there is equally good reason to think next year or even the year after.
If you bought them to make money, it's not a bad time at all to shill them off, particularly if you bought them during Zendikar. As has been said, let somebody else worry about the last $10-20, you've made your money. The longer one would hold onto them, the greater the chance of losing is. If you can double your money since then, it's a great return. Anything more is just frosting. Yes, Tarns *could* go to $150 until reprint. And you would be kicking yourself for selling them at *only* $100. But if you can make a bundle, and you did it *to make money*, you're making a lot of money. Not as much as you could, but it's easy and safe money.
If you bought them to play with, then keep them. They likely won't tank in value completely; original Shocklands still command a strong price, after all. I imagine if you personally keep them, they will still retain about the same value as you paid for them even after announcement of reprint. I would think about it at that point if you think you need them. But don't just sell them because some of us (Me included) are having a bit of a speculation-fest that they are being printed soon.