And now he's at $30. We can thank SCG for pushing Jeskai Black so hard in their streams.
But, the Jeskai Black decks aren't all running Dragonlord Ojutai; the three Jeskai Black decks that Top 8'ed the SCG Open had zero copies of Ojutai. And, the Jeskai Dragons list that was in Top 8 only had one copy of Ojutai. I don't think it is Jeskai Black that is driving the price. Or, if it is (was), it's time to sell. If frequency of use in SCG Open decks is the guiding factor, I would think that Gideon would be the card spiking.
(Of course, Gideon is in the current set, Ojutai is not. That makes a big difference.)
I'll never understand the psychology behind MTG price spikes. Some cards are just subject to hype supernovas.
And there were 28 Jaces in the top 16 and 2 Chandras; sometimes good cards put up strong performances outside of first place.
Zero in the final. You can twist it however you like. Fact is a Jace deck couldn't even win a semi. The price is just ridiculous.
looking at just the finals is a twist, looking at the top 16 as a whole is not a twist. The best decks don't always win, even affinity and cawblade didn't win every tournament, it's called variance.
A 40 dollar mythic rare would constitute a must have 4 of that goes in many decks.
Stats About Mythics
-Mythics are on average 40% rarer than pre-mythic rares
(old blocks about 200 rares, Mythic blocks 35+ mythics)
-They are printing more new cards a year not less
(about 665 now vs. 630 in most pre-mythic block)
-To drop the value of a rare by $1 a mythic must go up $2
-In a 3 year time span deck prices doubled. I am petitioning for the removal of mythic rarity. Sig this to join the cause.
I haven't noticed a price spike or run on them, but all of a sudden everyone on Puca wants Smothering Abomination. Did this just do good a tournament or something? Is it poised to go up?
Gabriel Nassif is running a BG Sacrifice deck (which they're calling BG Aristrocrats with no aristocrats in it, so) which plays Smothering Abomination and Grim Haruspex in combination with Collected Company and a few creatures that spawn Eldrazi Scions.
Get ready for a Calcano run. His UB Aristocrat deck tore it up today and supposedly stomped the meta all during his testing. No one has seen the complete decklist yet so you can get a bit of a jump on the masses if it becomes popular which it will if it's as good as it seems. Liliana and Bloodsoaked Champion are probably the biggest gainers from the deck. Probably see another jump in Polluted Delta too.
It's an instant speed 5/5 trampler for 4. Wtf do you people want seriously? It has applications in populate/ above the curve beats decks, or in Bant control/ flash. I seriously think anyone mad at this card for any reason other than losing an attacker to instant speed wurm, should go home and make their own awesome card game and leave the rest of us alone.
Get ready for a Calcano run. His UB Aristocrat deck tore it up today and supposedly stomped the meta all during his testing. No one has seen the complete decklist yet so you can get a bit of a jump on the masses if it becomes popular which it will if it's as good as it seems. Liliana and Bloodsoaked Champion are probably the biggest gainers from the deck. Probably see another jump in Polluted Delta too.
This deck is getting a lot of hype. I just bought some flippy Lilli's as they've gone up $2 since I checked last night. I also went ahead and got some Smothering Abominations, which is creeping up towards $1/each.
Get ready for a Calcano run. His UB Aristocrat deck tore it up today and supposedly stomped the meta all during his testing. No one has seen the complete decklist yet so you can get a bit of a jump on the masses if it becomes popular which it will if it's as good as it seems. Liliana and Bloodsoaked Champion are probably the biggest gainers from the deck. Probably see another jump in Polluted Delta too.
This deck is getting a lot of hype. I just bought some flippy Lilli's as they've gone up $2 since I checked last night. I also went ahead and got some Smothering Abominations, which is creeping up towards $1/each.
Problem with Abomination is that it is in the event deck which really limits the ceiling of such niche card.
I agree, but if you want to play the deck, may as well get them sooner rather than later. This card was .30 before the pro tour. Now it's about $1.
Lilly is up to $23 tcglow. I just hope the vendor I bought from ships the ones I ordered this morning.
Bloodsoaked Champion is creeping past the $2 mark.
Get ready for a Calcano run. His UB Aristocrat deck tore it up today and supposedly stomped the meta all during his testing. No one has seen the complete decklist yet so you can get a bit of a jump on the masses if it becomes popular which it will if it's as good as it seems. Liliana and Bloodsoaked Champion are probably the biggest gainers from the deck. Probably see another jump in Polluted Delta too.
This deck is getting a lot of hype. I just bought some flippy Lilli's as they've gone up $2 since I checked last night. I also went ahead and got some Smothering Abominations, which is creeping up towards $1/each.
Problem with Abomination is that it is in the event deck which really limits the ceiling of such niche card.
I agree, but if you want to play the deck, may as well get them sooner rather than later. This card was .30 before the pro tour. Now it's about $1.
Lilly is up to $23 tcglow. I just hope the vendor I bought from ships the ones I ordered this morning.
Bloodsoaked Champion is creeping past the $2 mark.
Yeah, I missed my window to get liliana for my own UB aristocrats deck. I just looked at his deck list and we are almost identical sans the Hangarback walker. I never expected that the deck would take off in standard and I'm hoping in a few weeks the price on her will come down to $20 again so she is purchasable. Outside of the fetch-a-riffic mana base he used the deck is probably one of the most affordable in standard, and it's a U/B deck of all things.
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
URGImperial AnimarGRU BRGProssh, Tokenmaker of KherGRB WURNarset NostalgicRUW UBR"I like your deck better" JelevaRBU UBlue BraidsU GAzusa, Lost but RampingG
WUHanna, Pillowfort's NavigatorUW WBRAleshacratsBRW UBRGrixis Pew PewRBU URGYasova the ThreateningGRU BGGlissa the ArticiferGB WUSygg MerfolkUW RSquee, Value NabobR
Is Gideon going to be able to hold this $42 mid price tag?
No. Not while expeditions are in the set. Boxes can't have double the price of cards then their retail price tag forever.
Yes most of the set will drop to being near worthless in coming months and Gideon will stay up but I would be shocked if he isn't around $20 by the end of December.
Is Gideon going to be able to hold this $42 mid price tag?
No. Not while expeditions are in the set. Boxes can't have double the price of cards then their retail price tag forever.
Yes most of the set will drop to being near worthless in coming months and Gideon will stay up but I would be shocked if he isn't around $20 by the end of December.
I actually just did the math on the overall average box value. Looking at the lower end values on NM prices listed on tcgplayer (with low/free shipping), I came up with an average rare value of $1.17, an average mythic value of $6.70, so factoring that in with a reasonable addition for common/uncommon sets and non-expedition, non-land foils, as well as figuring $9 for the 36 full-art basics, and $10 for 2 foil full-art basics, and then determining an average value for the expeditions and dividing that by 3 (1 per 3 boxes or so from what I have heard), I end up coming up with an overall average box value of $129/box. Certainly impressive, but definitely not double.
That said, all sets will settle in value, that's just inevitable. The cards that are good and see play will remain decently higher than the average, while the rest will slowly continue to drop as the set continues to get opened. Factor in the addition of mtgo redemptions as well in a month or so, and that will also put additional downward pressure on the values as it does for all sets.
Is Gideon going to be able to hold this $42 mid price tag?
No. Not while expeditions are in the set. Boxes can't have double the price of cards then their retail price tag forever.
Yes most of the set will drop to being near worthless in coming months and Gideon will stay up but I would be shocked if he isn't around $20 by the end of December.
I actually just did the math on the overall average box value. Looking at the lower end values on NM prices listed on tcgplayer (with low/free shipping), I came up with an average rare value of $1.17, an average mythic value of $6.70, so factoring that in with a reasonable addition for common/uncommon sets and non-expedition, non-land foils, as well as figuring $9 for the 36 full-art basics, and $10 for 2 foil full-art basics, and then determining an average value for the expeditions and dividing that by 3 (1 per 3 boxes or so from what I have heard), I end up coming up with an overall average box value of $129/box. Certainly impressive, but definitely not double.
That said, all sets will settle in value, that's just inevitable. The cards that are good and see play will remain decently higher than the average, while the rest will slowly continue to drop as the set continues to get opened. Factor in the addition of mtgo redemptions as well in a month or so, and that will also put additional downward pressure on the values as it does for all sets.
If I'm reading you right, this is before accounting for expeditions? If so, that adds at least $20 in box value and puts the EV at something like double the wholesale price at least. That is certainly not sustainable.
The PT is never a true indication of a Meta. It is skewed due to the fact it is an invite-only tournament, where large groups of players test decks for 2 weeks, and tend to all rally to 1 deck.
GP's are a truer feel of what the real meta is. You have to bring a deck that has to slog through possibly 15 different decks, or the same deck 8 times. You can't attune your 75 for higher impact (narrower) cards like you could at a PT.
The next 2 Standard GPs will shake out what the meta is, and people will work from that.
That being said, with mana bases being so good, people can more easily cram goodstuff.dec and make the opponent beat every good card.
If I'm reading you right, this is before accounting for expeditions? If so, that adds at least $20 in box value and puts the EV at something like double the wholesale price at least. That is certainly not sustainable.
Is Gideon going to be able to hold this $42 mid price tag?
No. Not while expeditions are in the set. Boxes can't have double the price of cards then their retail price tag forever.
Yes most of the set will drop to being near worthless in coming months and Gideon will stay up but I would be shocked if he isn't around $20 by the end of December.
I actually just did the math on the overall average box value. Looking at the lower end values on NM prices listed on tcgplayer (with low/free shipping), I came up with an average rare value of $1.17, an average mythic value of $6.70, so factoring that in with a reasonable addition for common/uncommon sets and non-expedition, non-land foils, as well as figuring $9 for the 36 full-art basics, and $10 for 2 foil full-art basics, and then determining an average value for the expeditions and dividing that by 3 (1 per 3 boxes or so from what I have heard), I end up coming up with an overall average box value of $129/box. Certainly impressive, but definitely not double.
That said, all sets will settle in value, that's just inevitable. The cards that are good and see play will remain decently higher than the average, while the rest will slowly continue to drop as the set continues to get opened. Factor in the addition of mtgo redemptions as well in a month or so, and that will also put additional downward pressure on the values as it does for all sets.
If I'm reading you right, this is before accounting for expeditions? If so, that adds at least $20 in box value and puts the EV at something like double the wholesale price at least. That is certainly not sustainable.
You read it incorrectly. Without expeditions the average box value is approx. $100, with the expeditions (factoring the average value of an expedition divided by 3 to get the average addition to single box value) its approx. $129.
If I'm reading you right, this is before accounting for expeditions? If so, that adds at least $20 in box value and puts the EV at something like double the wholesale price at least. That is certainly not sustainable.
Nope, that's after expeditions.
I fail at reading comprehension. Thanks!
In that case, only about 50% over wholesale price, but still unsustainable. As others have indicated, the first thing to go is usually the $1-4 prices for bulk cards. The lands, Gideon will stay high, as well as stuff like Drana, Bring to Light, etc if they see any play.
Ok so maybe not double the retail price but without expeditions everybody would be dumping this set hard and speculating on Origins instead.
I'm actually doing a little speculating on Archangel of Tithes myself. It was in the top standard deck at the PT yet is getting none of the hype because it wasn't a top 8 deck (don't forget those draft results). I'm not sure if it's being missed or people just don't think it's that good.
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But, the Jeskai Black decks aren't all running Dragonlord Ojutai; the three Jeskai Black decks that Top 8'ed the SCG Open had zero copies of Ojutai. And, the Jeskai Dragons list that was in Top 8 only had one copy of Ojutai. I don't think it is Jeskai Black that is driving the price. Or, if it is (was), it's time to sell. If frequency of use in SCG Open decks is the guiding factor, I would think that Gideon would be the card spiking.
(Of course, Gideon is in the current set, Ojutai is not. That makes a big difference.)
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Stats About Mythics
-Mythics are on average 40% rarer than pre-mythic rares
(old blocks about 200 rares, Mythic blocks 35+ mythics)
-They are printing more new cards a year not less
(about 665 now vs. 630 in most pre-mythic block)
-To drop the value of a rare by $1 a mythic must go up $2
-In a 3 year time span deck prices doubled.
I am petitioning for the removal of mythic rarity. Sig this to join the cause.
for as much as i see you post in these parts, you should know that means nothing
Cards for sale: Check them out!
This deck is getting a lot of hype. I just bought some flippy Lilli's as they've gone up $2 since I checked last night. I also went ahead and got some Smothering Abominations, which is creeping up towards $1/each.
I agree, but if you want to play the deck, may as well get them sooner rather than later. This card was .30 before the pro tour. Now it's about $1.
Lilly is up to $23 tcglow. I just hope the vendor I bought from ships the ones I ordered this morning.
Bloodsoaked Champion is creeping past the $2 mark.
Yeah, I missed my window to get liliana for my own UB aristocrats deck. I just looked at his deck list and we are almost identical sans the Hangarback walker. I never expected that the deck would take off in standard and I'm hoping in a few weeks the price on her will come down to $20 again so she is purchasable. Outside of the fetch-a-riffic mana base he used the deck is probably one of the most affordable in standard, and it's a U/B deck of all things.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
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Modern: BRGLiving EndGRB
Legacy: UBGShardless BUGGBU
BRGProssh, Tokenmaker of KherGRB
WURNarset NostalgicRUW
UBR"I like your deck better" JelevaRBU
UBlue BraidsU
GAzusa, Lost but RampingG
WBRAleshacratsBRW
UBRGrixis Pew PewRBU
URGYasova the ThreateningGRU
BGGlissa the ArticiferGB
WUSygg MerfolkUW
RSquee, Value NabobR
No. Not while expeditions are in the set. Boxes can't have double the price of cards then their retail price tag forever.
Yes most of the set will drop to being near worthless in coming months and Gideon will stay up but I would be shocked if he isn't around $20 by the end of December.
I actually just did the math on the overall average box value. Looking at the lower end values on NM prices listed on tcgplayer (with low/free shipping), I came up with an average rare value of $1.17, an average mythic value of $6.70, so factoring that in with a reasonable addition for common/uncommon sets and non-expedition, non-land foils, as well as figuring $9 for the 36 full-art basics, and $10 for 2 foil full-art basics, and then determining an average value for the expeditions and dividing that by 3 (1 per 3 boxes or so from what I have heard), I end up coming up with an overall average box value of $129/box. Certainly impressive, but definitely not double.
That said, all sets will settle in value, that's just inevitable. The cards that are good and see play will remain decently higher than the average, while the rest will slowly continue to drop as the set continues to get opened. Factor in the addition of mtgo redemptions as well in a month or so, and that will also put additional downward pressure on the values as it does for all sets.
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If I'm reading you right, this is before accounting for expeditions? If so, that adds at least $20 in box value and puts the EV at something like double the wholesale price at least. That is certainly not sustainable.
Rancored Elf will cancel your order if prices go up. Read about him and other shady vendors here.
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GP's are a truer feel of what the real meta is. You have to bring a deck that has to slog through possibly 15 different decks, or the same deck 8 times. You can't attune your 75 for higher impact (narrower) cards like you could at a PT.
The next 2 Standard GPs will shake out what the meta is, and people will work from that.
That being said, with mana bases being so good, people can more easily cram goodstuff.dec and make the opponent beat every good card.
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R Daretti R
RG Omnath GR
WRG Modern Burn GRW
WB Modern Tokens BW
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Nope, that's after expeditions.
You read it incorrectly. Without expeditions the average box value is approx. $100, with the expeditions (factoring the average value of an expedition divided by 3 to get the average addition to single box value) its approx. $129.
I fail at reading comprehension. Thanks!
In that case, only about 50% over wholesale price, but still unsustainable. As others have indicated, the first thing to go is usually the $1-4 prices for bulk cards. The lands, Gideon will stay high, as well as stuff like Drana, Bring to Light, etc if they see any play.
Rancored Elf will cancel your order if prices go up. Read about him and other shady vendors here.
My Trade Thread!
I'm actually doing a little speculating on Archangel of Tithes myself. It was in the top standard deck at the PT yet is getting none of the hype because it wasn't a top 8 deck (don't forget those draft results). I'm not sure if it's being missed or people just don't think it's that good.