Bayou is linked to the BGx craze that kicked off with RTR introducing DRS and abrupt decay into legacy. It wasn't elves, although elves runs decay and DRS the main reason is shardless BUG that has been popularized by Gerry Thompson and has seen a lot of success in the SCG circuit.
Savannah shot up due to maverick. It dropped in price when maverick was no longer a contender due to terminus in avacyn restored making miracles a deck (miracles crushes maverick.)
They aren't going to wait long on reprinting zendikar and potentially onslaught fetches. They intend to support modern. If they don't reprint fetchlands soon, scalding tarn WILL hit 100 dollars. And they won't be mythic/the price will tank to 10 a pop a la shocklands.
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Sea being the top dog does feel like an anomaly these days. Combo players are the driving force for that particular dual, as otherwise it wouldn't see any more demand than Trops do. Also, some of the decks running Sea don't run fetches, or run a small number compared to other Legacy decks, so a full playset of Seas is warranted -- whereas you can run any normal U/G/x deck with 2-3 Trops.
All the non-blue ones suffer from the problem of not working with Daze. The 3-color tempo decks often don't play their shard/wedge's non-blue representative, or if they do they limit it to one copy to fetch in weird mana situations.
I don't see straight RW ever being a popular Legacy choice, so you'd have to see some powerful RR or WW spell printed to make decks other than Zoo variants play it -- Zoo variants want it because of Fireblast, it's their version of needing islands for Daze.
Blue will always be king but supply is small enough, and there cards won't be outclassed. Eventually the growing market of EDH and Cube will catch up with the cheap ones. I think they will all be over $50 for good next year and keep climbing slowly for years.
Sea being the top dog does feel like an anomaly these days. Combo players are the driving force for that particular dual, as otherwise it wouldn't see any more demand than Trops do. Also, some of the decks running Sea don't run fetches, or run a small number compared to other Legacy decks, so a full playset of Seas is warranted -- whereas you can run any normal U/G/x deck with 2-3 Trops.
All the non-blue ones suffer from the problem of not working with Daze. The 3-color tempo decks often don't play their shard/wedge's non-blue representative, or if they do they limit it to one copy to fetch in weird mana situations.
I don't see straight RW ever being a popular Legacy choice, so you'd have to see some powerful RR or WW spell printed to make decks other than Zoo variants play it -- Zoo variants want it because of Fireblast, it's their version of needing islands for Daze.
I agree with many of these points but Sea being top dog is not an anomaly. It still sees more play than the rest of the duals.
Revised dual lands were over printed and their price relied on Legacy as the only affordable eternal format. Now that Modern exists you won't see the dual lands have as much as demand.
None of you seem to realize how overprinted Revised was. The print run on that set was equal to the print run of 4th Edition.
That is to say, the price on Revised dual lands were inflated because of the uniqueness of Legacy format. But this is no longer the case.
Supply is big but demand is huge. Every casual players want them for their multicolored decks. A lot of people want their 40. To this you must add the demand from Legacy and Vintage. Unless Magic loses in popularity or the speculative side of Magic is reduced they'll keep their price but there is a limit in the growth potential of heavily printed $100 cards. Elasticity isn't the same for a $20 card and a $100 card. You can't expect Underground Sea to have its price multiplied by 8 in the next 10 years. The past pattern will not continue.
Supply is big but demand is huge. Every casual players want them for their multicolored decks. A lot of people want their 40. To this you must add the demand from Legacy and Vintage. Unless Magic loses in popularity or the speculative side of Magic is reduced they'll keep their price but there is a limit in the growth potential of heavily printed $100 cards. Elasticity isn't the same for a $20 card and a $100 card. You can't expect Underground Sea to have its price multiplied by 8 in the next 10 years. The past pattern will not continue.
Legacy has gone the way of Vintage and people will be trading those cards in and the prices will become similar to Tolarian Academy or Vampiric Tutor . Dual lands shouldn't be worth higher than $40~
There aren't enough pro players competing at big events to drive the demand.
people who are familiar with the print run sizes should be aware of this
Legacy has gone the way of Vintage and people will be trading those cards in and the prices will become similar to Tolarian Academy or Vampiric Tutor . Dual lands shouldn't be worth higher than $40~
There aren't enough pro players competing at big events to drive the demand.
people who are familiar with the print run sizes should be aware of this
I don't know what kind of coverage you are reading, or what you are not reading, but the legacy circuit is alive and well mostly because of SCG. The numbers I've seen show attendance at SCG legacy opens to be up, not down. The demand is not just from legacy either, not by a long shot. The statement that dual lands shouldn't be worth higher than $40 sounds like an opinion and a personal wish.
EDH Also has a small effect on dual prices. A lot of people in my playgroup have a few duals in their muti color decks. These cards are effectively removed from the current card pool as these players will never disassemble their favorite decks
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0USpiral Tide0U
UWU/W 'Miracle Top' Control UW
012 Post 0
Random Opponent: Playing against 12 Post Feels like trying to win in Yugioh with no super secret rares.
And the Print run may have been "Huge" as you put it but this was the early days of magic, the presleeve days, almost 20 years out of print magic. I imagine a huge percentage of duals are just gone, and another massive portion is trashed beyond what most people want. As long as there is magic there will be demand for the duals. They wont be reprinted and they wont be equaled. But the funny part is no one yells at you for playing them in casual formats, unlike old power.
Some may say they will all drop to $20-$40 I day it is more likely that mint duals will all be over $100 in a couple of years.
Legacy has gone the way of Vintage and people will be trading those cards in and the prices will become similar to Tolarian Academy or Vampiric Tutor . Dual lands shouldn't be worth higher than $40~
There aren't enough pro players competing at big events to drive the demand.
people who are familiar with the print run sizes should be aware of this
...right. I attended SCG Milwaukee legacy yesterday and 250 people attended. Clearly the format is dying/going the way of vintage. SCG just announced continued support of the format through 2014. Duals are higher than ever. Also, the print run was 'huge'? That's hilariously untrue, especially in contrast to the number of return to ravnica cards that were printed as well as all new magic sets really sans worldwake.
Duals aren't dropping. They are slowly rising over time, that is what will happen in the future.
Sea is a 4 of in most if not all BUG decks. Reanimator runs 4. The only other dual that is close is volcanic island currently. Sure a number of years ago tundra was top dog but now underground sea is the highest as well as the most iconic of the dual lands.
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Not only did SCG announce continued legacy support, they noted that legacy does better for them than the double standard, standard modern, and standard team weekends did so all the weekends I love 2014 feature legacy. Duals aren't going down anytime soon.
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Not only did SCG announce continued legacy support, they noted that legacy does better for them than the double standard, standard modern, and standard team weekends did so all the weekends I love 2014 feature legacy. Duals aren't going down anytime soon.
Having bought into a good number of duals circa 2011 when they were all exploding in value I will say for those thinking of investing in them that Dual lands rise and fall in value like any other magic card.
The simplistic theorycrafting is that because they are on the reserve list they will always go up.
That just has not been the case over the past few years. Duals are subject to the same rises and drops from market demand waxing and waning.
When Maverick was popular in legacy Savannahs rose as high as $100 a piece on ebay. They have since dropped to about 75-80.
Likewise Volcanic Islands rose from the strength of sneak and show decks.
It is more accurate to say that dual lands are well insulated from price drops, very well positioned for future price rises, and very very well protected from catastrophic drops in value. In my opinion, they are by far the safest investment in magic--even safer than power 9.
But they don't always go up in a straight line.
The difference however when they do drop is that players can have decent confidence that they will rise again.
I bought a Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas at $50. It dropped to $25. Did I have confidence it would EVER rise back to $50 again? Not a chance in hell. Koth was reprinted in a dual deck. Venser reprinted. Sorin reprinted.
I bought an underground sea at $120 at a high point. It later dropped to $108. Did I have confidence it would rise again. Yes, time was on my side.
edited: looks like savannahs are around 90 on ebay for NM.
Revised dual lands were over printed and their price relied on Legacy as the only affordable eternal format. Now that Modern exists you won't see the dual lands have as much as demand.
None of you seem to realize how overprinted Revised was. The print run on that set was equal to the print run of 4th Edition.
That is to say, the price on Revised dual lands were inflated because of the uniqueness of Legacy format. But this is no longer the case.
At the risk of feeding the trolls I'll go ahead and respond to this.
I agree with you that people definitely underestimate the supply of revised duals. There are a lot out there. Their price reflects the popularity of Legacy rather than a grossly small print run. Where I disagree with you is in your assertion that Modern infringes on the uniqueness of Legacy. To even make such a claim I have to believe you don't pay attention to either format. Wizards has set out specific criteria for Modern that prevent it from ever resembling Legacy. To me, Modern is more like a Standard that never rotates.. Which is fine, it's just not my cup of tea, nor do I believe it's the cup of tea of many of the thousands of people who regularly play Legacy for the higher power level, higher level of interactivity, greater diversity of decks etc.. There will be a place for Legacy and a place for Modern for the foreseeable future, and as such, I don't see duals crashing any time soon.
I'm from Quebec City, so not that far, and Legacy is huge here. Most players love it the most despite it being a bit less played than Standard and sometimes Modern. ''Normal'' tournaments bring 30-35 players, big ones around 70.
but how many of those players actually have legacy decks that are not borrowed from their friends ?
i know very few people other than myself who actually have much of a legacy collection.
they often play modern decks in legacy
or they play with shocklands
i know very few players who actually buy or own dual lands
Well you must have some pretty bad or new players in your area. The majority of people here have tier 1 legacy decks and duals. I have 16 revised duals and there are several people here that have twice that many. It tooj me years to get all mine but it was worth it since legacy is by far my favorite format.
but how many of those players actually have legacy decks that are not borrowed from their friends ?
i know very few people other than myself who actually have much of a legacy collection.
they often play modern decks in legacy
or they play with shocklands
i know very few players who actually buy or own dual lands
Anecdotal evidence.
I'll take a statistical analysis of tournament growth over a single person's experience any day. Especially a person with a clear bias. And it certainly is not the same 200 people traveling everywhere to play in SCG tournaments.. The prize payout would have to be ridiculous to support your hypothesis.
I'm with you - save your breath. The guy's from an area with no SCG events and he obviously thinks that his particular area is particularly representative of legacy in the whole world, in general
I'll take a statistical analysis of tournament growth over a single person's experience any day. Especially a person with a clear bias. And it certainly is not the same 200 people traveling everywhere to play in SCG tournaments.. The prize payout would have to be ridiculous to support your hypothesis.
Have you looked at the Legacy GP in Strasbourg this year? If not, the attendance was 1364. That's a pretty good number for a constructed GP. Like everyone is saying, I wouldn't use numbers from your community to generalize the legacy format.
One advantage that Legacy has over modern is that modern decks can be played in legacy. It might not be competitive, but at least players would enjoy the vast diversity of the format. In fact, one of modern most dominate deck converted to legacy on the day bloodbraid elf was banned. Also as a viewer, I do enjoy watching legacy, if you watch the last scg legacy tournaments, you would have seen oops! all spell deck which made it to the finals.
Due to these reasons, I don't think dual land prices would drop down to the ground.
Savannah shot up due to maverick. It dropped in price when maverick was no longer a contender due to terminus in avacyn restored making miracles a deck (miracles crushes maverick.)
They aren't going to wait long on reprinting zendikar and potentially onslaught fetches. They intend to support modern. If they don't reprint fetchlands soon, scalding tarn WILL hit 100 dollars. And they won't be mythic/the price will tank to 10 a pop a la shocklands.
Currently Playing:
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All the non-blue ones suffer from the problem of not working with Daze. The 3-color tempo decks often don't play their shard/wedge's non-blue representative, or if they do they limit it to one copy to fetch in weird mana situations.
I don't see straight RW ever being a popular Legacy choice, so you'd have to see some powerful RR or WW spell printed to make decks other than Zoo variants play it -- Zoo variants want it because of Fireblast, it's their version of needing islands for Daze.
I agree with many of these points but Sea being top dog is not an anomaly. It still sees more play than the rest of the duals.
http://www.thecouncil.es/tcdecks/mostplayedcards.php
Last month volcanic beat it, but for every other recent month it has been the top.
None of you seem to realize how overprinted Revised was. The print run on that set was equal to the print run of 4th Edition.
That is to say, the price on Revised dual lands were inflated because of the uniqueness of Legacy format. But this is no longer the case.
Legacy has gone the way of Vintage and people will be trading those cards in and the prices will become similar to Tolarian Academy or Vampiric Tutor . Dual lands shouldn't be worth higher than $40~
There aren't enough pro players competing at big events to drive the demand.
people who are familiar with the print run sizes should be aware of this
I don't know what kind of coverage you are reading, or what you are not reading, but the legacy circuit is alive and well mostly because of SCG. The numbers I've seen show attendance at SCG legacy opens to be up, not down. The demand is not just from legacy either, not by a long shot. The statement that dual lands shouldn't be worth higher than $40 sounds like an opinion and a personal wish.
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Some may say they will all drop to $20-$40 I day it is more likely that mint duals will all be over $100 in a couple of years.
...right. I attended SCG Milwaukee legacy yesterday and 250 people attended. Clearly the format is dying/going the way of vintage. SCG just announced continued support of the format through 2014. Duals are higher than ever. Also, the print run was 'huge'? That's hilariously untrue, especially in contrast to the number of return to ravnica cards that were printed as well as all new magic sets really sans worldwake.
Duals aren't dropping. They are slowly rising over time, that is what will happen in the future.
Sea is a 4 of in most if not all BUG decks. Reanimator runs 4. The only other dual that is close is volcanic island currently. Sure a number of years ago tundra was top dog but now underground sea is the highest as well as the most iconic of the dual lands.
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They never held Standard/Modern.
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[Deck/Primer] Knights in Legacy
[Deck] Darth Knights in Legacy
[Deck] Casual Knights in Legacy
[Deck/Primer] Modern Knights
[Deck/Primer] Modern Ninjas
LEGACY
Legacy Knights Variants WG,WU,WR,WB,W,B
Soldiers Stompy W
NinjaStill UB
FOWless Merfolk UW
Aggro Elves G
MODERN
Modern Knights Variants WG,BR
Modern Ninjas Variants UB,UG,UW,UWR
Modern Kithkins WR,W
The simplistic theorycrafting is that because they are on the reserve list they will always go up.
That just has not been the case over the past few years. Duals are subject to the same rises and drops from market demand waxing and waning.
When Maverick was popular in legacy Savannahs rose as high as $100 a piece on ebay. They have since dropped to about 75-80.
Likewise Volcanic Islands rose from the strength of sneak and show decks.
It is more accurate to say that dual lands are well insulated from price drops, very well positioned for future price rises, and very very well protected from catastrophic drops in value. In my opinion, they are by far the safest investment in magic--even safer than power 9.
But they don't always go up in a straight line.
The difference however when they do drop is that players can have decent confidence that they will rise again.
I bought a Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas at $50. It dropped to $25. Did I have confidence it would EVER rise back to $50 again? Not a chance in hell. Koth was reprinted in a dual deck. Venser reprinted. Sorin reprinted.
I bought an underground sea at $120 at a high point. It later dropped to $108. Did I have confidence it would rise again. Yes, time was on my side.
edited: looks like savannahs are around 90 on ebay for NM.
Anyway zoo is dead in Legacy since Snapcaster and Terminus started making aggro really really bad.
At the risk of feeding the trolls I'll go ahead and respond to this.
I agree with you that people definitely underestimate the supply of revised duals. There are a lot out there. Their price reflects the popularity of Legacy rather than a grossly small print run. Where I disagree with you is in your assertion that Modern infringes on the uniqueness of Legacy. To even make such a claim I have to believe you don't pay attention to either format. Wizards has set out specific criteria for Modern that prevent it from ever resembling Legacy. To me, Modern is more like a Standard that never rotates.. Which is fine, it's just not my cup of tea, nor do I believe it's the cup of tea of many of the thousands of people who regularly play Legacy for the higher power level, higher level of interactivity, greater diversity of decks etc.. There will be a place for Legacy and a place for Modern for the foreseeable future, and as such, I don't see duals crashing any time soon.
Legacy
Control
Miracles
All flavors of Stoneblade
Aggro
Grixis Delver
UR Delver
Burn
Combo
Dredge
TES/ANT
UR & UB Reanimator
Belcher
A lot of the 200 people or whatever that are at these tournaments are the same friggin people who travel around .
I'm from Montreal. We have a LOT of gaming here .
the Legacy community is tiny .
I can can count them on a single hand
Legacy is alive and well.
i know very few people other than myself who actually have much of a legacy collection.
they often play modern decks in legacy
or they play with shocklands
i know very few players who actually buy or own dual lands
First of all, playing a Modern deck in Legacy is often a bad idea.
Playing shocklands can be fine in Legacy, but obviously the original duals are a better choice almost all the time.
Legacy although not played nearly as much as Standard is still alive in well in Vancouver.
Well you must have some pretty bad or new players in your area. The majority of people here have tier 1 legacy decks and duals. I have 16 revised duals and there are several people here that have twice that many. It tooj me years to get all mine but it was worth it since legacy is by far my favorite format.
Legacy
RUG DelverRUG
BUG DelverBUG
Modern
Good ol' fashioned JundBGR)[/I]
Standard
Too Boring
Commander
Azusa, Lost But SeekingG [I](foiling out)[/I]
Anecdotal evidence.
I'll take a statistical analysis of tournament growth over a single person's experience any day. Especially a person with a clear bias. And it certainly is not the same 200 people traveling everywhere to play in SCG tournaments.. The prize payout would have to be ridiculous to support your hypothesis.
Legacy
Control
Miracles
All flavors of Stoneblade
Aggro
Grixis Delver
UR Delver
Burn
Combo
Dredge
TES/ANT
UR & UB Reanimator
Belcher
One advantage that Legacy has over modern is that modern decks can be played in legacy. It might not be competitive, but at least players would enjoy the vast diversity of the format. In fact, one of modern most dominate deck converted to legacy on the day bloodbraid elf was banned. Also as a viewer, I do enjoy watching legacy, if you watch the last scg legacy tournaments, you would have seen oops! all spell deck which made it to the finals.
Due to these reasons, I don't think dual land prices would drop down to the ground.