Barring reprint (increase of supply), unbanning (increase in demand), and/or mass loss of interest in the game (decrease in demand), I think the price of the P9 will continue to rise.
Cube is creating more and more demand for power. The MTGO cube inspired many, including myself, to build a cube. Now not everyone will choose to power their cube, out of either power level or price concerns, but a reasonable amount will.
Now maybe those new cubes won't outnumber the people who get rid of their power because they have no one to play vintage with, but I think it will be the other way around. Cube and EDH staples, especially foils, have been skyrocketing lately. Now who knows how much of that is actual supply and demand, and how much is artificial market manipulation by the major dealers, SCG in particular. That doesn't change the fact that the buylist prices on a lot of foils that I purchased this time last year are higher than the purchase is back then.
That makes me suspect that a similar price increase could happen any day with power. Hell, SCG could just buy the internet out of real pieces of power and jack the price up on everything 50%, and honestly they'd probably make a heavy profit doing so over teh long haul.
Magic isn't just a fad game anymore. It's been around for 20 years. It's a gaming institution like D&D. That's not going away anytime soon and neither is Magic. The popularity is at an all time high and I see tons of new young players. Imagine in another 10 years when these young kids have jobs and decided to grab some power for the collectability factor just like younger people know buy vintage baseball cards to hold a piece of history. Power 9 are a piece of gaming history. In another 10 years they could be extremely rare as collectors have no reason to sell and supply dries out. Also I notice that Power goes up in spurts. Will remain constant then jump in 10-%20 spurts. Look at SCG. They have power listed at huge prices yet ZERO stock. They cant even get people to sell them power at these high prices. Its only a matter of time now. 1100 Alpha rares, maybe 100 of them lost/destroyed. That's such a small quantity. Sometime like an Alpha lotus is already getting close to the 10k mark and that's IF you can find one.
From my point of view, he is correct - from 2010 until fairly recently, the price of power honestly did not change much. This might have held true prior to 2010 too but I wasn't playing then So, at least a good 2.5+ years where P9 prices were somewhat stagnant. I purchased power in 2011, 2012 and sold some power in 2013 and it didn't seem much diff to me. Today, however, it's a different story.
Big jump from ~400 average price to ~600-650 average price in early March 2011 for Unlimited copies. Might be limited stock or condition or pricing data points. But it did appear to stay at that level (falling a bit, actually) until February 2014.
I blame Fetches for the 2014 runup - at least, I buylisted my fetches for P9, so I assume others may have as well.
ahh the good ol days, my buddy sold his mint beta lotus to Neutral Ground for $200 back in the late 90's.
kinda sucks that vintage isn't played any more, I would love to play vintage, it's one of those formats that once you have the deck built it is almost eternal, with no need to upgrade it with cards from newer sets. In my turn 1 kill fluctuator deck, the only thing that has changed since i built it in 2000 is the removal of drain life, and the addition of Exsanguinate
If vintage was played even slightly more, the prices of power could easily double.
Btw, when I talk about prices, I'm only referring to realistic prices to buy cards at, not store prices. Esp for something like P9, tcgmid has way too few data points to make any sense. You could buy any mox for ~300-350 in the entire time period I'm referring to and I got a few of these from tcgplayer directly. They were pretty available on the forums until fairly recently too.
Btw, when I talk about prices, I'm only referring to realistic prices to buy cards at, not store prices. Esp for something like P9, tcgmid has way too few data points to make any sense. You could buy any mox for ~300-350 in the entire time period I'm referring to and I got a few of these from tcgplayer directly. They were pretty available on the forums until fairly recently too.
This is false. Check my post in this very thread from last August. I was actually trying to buy power during the time period you're talking about, and I had a very hard time getting them at the prices you say.
@Silia: Mmm did you try MOTL? Just saying that salvation has never been a good resource for power, there's probably half a dozen threads with power on them so if you're talking about salvation, I concur - I don't think I've transacted power via this site. Also, I'm talking about 'buying', not 'trades', it's not hard to find people to just straight buy from. Besides, eBay is always available. All I know is that I've picked up many pieces of power in the time period I mentioned, so I guess all I can say is YMMV.
Edit: I see the issue now Silia. You were looking for MINT power, I was talking about played power.
@Silia: Mmm did you try MOTL? Just saying that salvation has never been a good resource for power, there's probably half a dozen threads with power on them so if you're talking about salvation, I concur - I don't think I've transacted power via this site. Also, I'm talking about 'buying', not 'trades', it's not hard to find people to just straight buy from. Besides, eBay is always available. All I know is that I've picked up many pieces of power in the time period I mentioned, so I guess all I can say is YMMV.
Edit: I see the issue now Silia. You were looking for MINT power, I was talking about played power.
I tried MOTL, here, Ebay, TCG Player, and I even recruited a friend in Sweden to act as my proxy on MKM. I was not looking for MINT power at all. I was looking for power that didn't have shuffle creases. I'm telling you now that power for the prices you're saying were not available unless it was pretty beaten up, because I would have bought it if it were.
Dunno, man. I picked up a Time Walk in Nov 11 for $300 straight buying it on eBay. Not sure when I got my sapphire, that one might have been via trade. I've never paid more than $350 for any of those besides lotus and I've transacted for several. In fairness, sapphire is pretty clutch so I wouldn't be surprised if it's harder to find than the others. Again, I picked up played power...
Dunno, man. I picked up a Time Walk in Nov 11 for $300 straight buying it on eBay. Not sure when I got my sapphire, that one might have been via trade. I've never paid more than $350 for any of those besides lotus and I've transacted for several. In fairness, sapphire is pretty clutch so I wouldn't be surprised if it's harder to find than the others. Again, I picked up played power...
why are you using personal experience to make general arguments on value. I could buy a Black Lotus or a Picasso from a garage sale for $1 then come here "Hey I would never pay more than $1 for a black lotus because that's what I got mine for". Totally useless one time event. If you're buying time walks for $300 good for you. Not from me you're not.
@tonyg: Because Sillia is also using personal experiences in referencing value, he was not able to find his power and I was, so that's just some additional datapoints to consider is all. If you read the topic carefully, you'll see that the period of time we're talking about is already in the past and I'll assume that everybody is aware of how much power costs today, in April of 2014. This is really just necro'ing an old thread but since you asked...as to why personal experience datapoints might be relevant - several of the graphing sites utilize tcgplayer prices, which has a tiny sample size for power, especially over the period of time we're discussing so I would be leery of drawing conclusions from the data. I've acquired a decent sample size of p9 during this period so I felt I'd chime in but at the end of the day, feel free to have your own opinion.
Big jump from ~400 average price to ~600-650 average price in early March 2011 for Unlimited copies. Might be limited stock or condition or pricing data points. But it did appear to stay at that level (falling a bit, actually) until February 2014.
I blame Fetches for the 2014 runup - at least, I buylisted my fetches for P9, so I assume others may have as well.
I also buylisted a bunch of fetches and random modern cards that jumped to get into power just recently. I bought a bunch of fetches at the low so even buylisting plus credit was great when some stores did not raise their power prices right away.
With Vintage Championships, a bunch of NE vintage events, and vintage coming to magic online, I think it's fair to say there is a mild increase of interest in the format.
Plains - John Avon - 230
Island - Jung Park - 235
Island - Vincent Proce - 237
Swamp - John Avon - 238
Mountain - John Avon - 242
Forest - John Avon - 246
that actually a great questions and my answer recently has been Power. Ive traded all my alpha beta duals for moxes and lotus' pretty much straight across. Over time in terms of collectability, power will have far more value than duals for the simple reason that duals were printed in revised and power was not. Less power than duals. Right now this isn't an issue because duals are being played far more than power is but over time, as cards get older and shift further towards the collectability spectrum, people will see the value in something that's more rare. Beta dual vs Beta mox? I'll take the mox every time.
that actually a great questions and my answer recently has been Power. Ive traded all my alpha beta duals for moxes and lotus' pretty much straight across. Over time in terms of collectability, power will have far more value than duals for the simple reason that duals were printed in revised and power was not. Less power than duals. Right now this isn't an issue because duals are being played far more than power is but over time, as cards get older and shift further towards the collectability spectrum, people will see the value in something that's more rare. Beta dual vs Beta mox? I'll take the mox every time.
I would really have to consider the dual vs power on a case by case basis. A beta Underground Sea has been worth more than every other piece of Beta power except Lotus since before the last price jump even happened. I've also seen played beta power sell for under $400, which is where some of the Rev duals are heading to (and where some Unl duals already are). From a collectors standpoint with known print runs, duals are roughly 15 times more common than power, but duals are way more than 15x more in demand.
-edit- I just want to be clear, that I am in favor of buying power at the moment. Never buy into cards that are spiking. For that reason alone, I'd be buying power instead.
that actually a great questions and my answer recently has been Power. Ive traded all my alpha beta duals for moxes and lotus' pretty much straight across. Over time in terms of collectability, power will have far more value than duals for the simple reason that duals were printed in revised and power was not. Less power than duals. Right now this isn't an issue because duals are being played far more than power is but over time, as cards get older and shift further towards the collectability spectrum, people will see the value in something that's more rare. Beta dual vs Beta mox? I'll take the mox every time.
I would really have to consider the dual vs power on a case by case basis. A beta Underground Sea has been worth more than every other piece of Beta power except Lotus since before the last price jump even happened. I've also seen played beta power sell for under $400, which is where some of the Rev duals are heading to (and where some Unl duals already are). From a collectors standpoint with known print runs, duals are roughly 15 times more common than power, but duals are way more than 15x more in demand.
-edit- I just want to be clear, that I am in favor of buying power at the moment. Never buy into cards that are spiking. For that reason alone, I'd be buying power instead.
I agree that mostly it's a case by case basis. But at this point you could almost trade a beta Underground for a beta Lotus. I'll take the lotus. Do I think that duals are over valued? Maybe a little, but mostly I feel that power is undervalued and is headed for another run-up soon. Wouldn't be surprised to see an Alpha lotus hit the 10k mark. There's just no supply out there and everyone that's sold is going into the hands of solid collectors that aren't in a panic to resell. Years ago you could find plenty of alpha lotuses out there in varying conditions. As that supply was bought up, new supply just isn't hitting the secondary market.
with the latest abur duals spike, i see no reason why power shouldn't rise as well. would definitely buy now if you actually want the cards or if you have a storefront and want to stock up.
I've noticed NM/Lightly Played Time Walk has significantly gone up. I remember one of the online sites would buy a NM for $500.
I think people are going to be shocked in a couple years when supply of Power 9 completely dries up. Eventually the transfer between week hands and strong hands will be complete and wealthier players won't' feel the need to ever sell their Power. Right now you might still have some people that purchased power for $50 20 years ago and are looking to cash in on massive gains just to make rent. That source will dry up eventually. There are probably as many millionaires playing Magic world wide as there are Power 9 cards. Won't take long before we get a huge run-up. People act like 5k or 10k is a lot of money. Maybe to you it is, to others its a meaningless amount and they feel no pressure to sell their stuff to cash in for money they don't need. Its the same thing that happens to every collectible eventually. 30 years ago when you could have bought an Action Comics #1 for $20k people must have thought that was a crazy amount...
I've honestly considered selling my unlimited power cards recently. But one thing has made me hesitate: The recent increase in prices.
I've followed power since 2009 and indeed, the prices of power were stagnant for a long time. While the dual lands all bumped up, power remained stable or was 'stagnant' from an investment perpective.
Enter 2014.
I check the prices online again, and wow. They have all risen by a considerable percentage. In fact I think they are undervalued relative to the rest of the magic market.
I think theres a decent chance within the next year, power will correct in an upward direction. More people than ever are playing magic, and these people will come into money in the future. Power still and always has represented the quitessential collectible in magic.
It wouldnt surprise me at all if people traded...what is it now? 2 playsets of fetches for a mox sapphire.
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Now maybe those new cubes won't outnumber the people who get rid of their power because they have no one to play vintage with, but I think it will be the other way around. Cube and EDH staples, especially foils, have been skyrocketing lately. Now who knows how much of that is actual supply and demand, and how much is artificial market manipulation by the major dealers, SCG in particular. That doesn't change the fact that the buylist prices on a lot of foils that I purchased this time last year are higher than the purchase is back then.
That makes me suspect that a similar price increase could happen any day with power. Hell, SCG could just buy the internet out of real pieces of power and jack the price up on everything 50%, and honestly they'd probably make a heavy profit doing so over teh long haul.
This isn't even remotely true. Just look at Mox Pearl recently:
http://store.tcgplayer.com/magic/unlimited-edition/mox-pearl
I blame Fetches for the 2014 runup - at least, I buylisted my fetches for P9, so I assume others may have as well.
kinda sucks that vintage isn't played any more, I would love to play vintage, it's one of those formats that once you have the deck built it is almost eternal, with no need to upgrade it with cards from newer sets. In my turn 1 kill fluctuator deck, the only thing that has changed since i built it in 2000 is the removal of drain life, and the addition of Exsanguinate
If vintage was played even slightly more, the prices of power could easily double.
This is false. Check my post in this very thread from last August. I was actually trying to buy power during the time period you're talking about, and I had a very hard time getting them at the prices you say.
Edit: I see the issue now Silia. You were looking for MINT power, I was talking about played power.
I tried MOTL, here, Ebay, TCG Player, and I even recruited a friend in Sweden to act as my proxy on MKM. I was not looking for MINT power at all. I was looking for power that didn't have shuffle creases. I'm telling you now that power for the prices you're saying were not available unless it was pretty beaten up, because I would have bought it if it were.
why are you using personal experience to make general arguments on value. I could buy a Black Lotus or a Picasso from a garage sale for $1 then come here "Hey I would never pay more than $1 for a black lotus because that's what I got mine for". Totally useless one time event. If you're buying time walks for $300 good for you. Not from me you're not.
I also buylisted a bunch of fetches and random modern cards that jumped to get into power just recently. I bought a bunch of fetches at the low so even buylisting plus credit was great when some stores did not raise their power prices right away.
With Vintage Championships, a bunch of NE vintage events, and vintage coming to magic online, I think it's fair to say there is a mild increase of interest in the format.
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?t=4832736
Trading 10 full art zen basics for 8 of yours!
I want
Plains - John Avon - 230
Island - Jung Park - 235
Island - Vincent Proce - 237
Swamp - John Avon - 238
Mountain - John Avon - 242
Forest - John Avon - 246
that actually a great questions and my answer recently has been Power. Ive traded all my alpha beta duals for moxes and lotus' pretty much straight across. Over time in terms of collectability, power will have far more value than duals for the simple reason that duals were printed in revised and power was not. Less power than duals. Right now this isn't an issue because duals are being played far more than power is but over time, as cards get older and shift further towards the collectability spectrum, people will see the value in something that's more rare. Beta dual vs Beta mox? I'll take the mox every time.
I would really have to consider the dual vs power on a case by case basis. A beta Underground Sea has been worth more than every other piece of Beta power except Lotus since before the last price jump even happened. I've also seen played beta power sell for under $400, which is where some of the Rev duals are heading to (and where some Unl duals already are). From a collectors standpoint with known print runs, duals are roughly 15 times more common than power, but duals are way more than 15x more in demand.
-edit- I just want to be clear, that I am in favor of buying power at the moment. Never buy into cards that are spiking. For that reason alone, I'd be buying power instead.
I agree that mostly it's a case by case basis. But at this point you could almost trade a beta Underground for a beta Lotus. I'll take the lotus. Do I think that duals are over valued? Maybe a little, but mostly I feel that power is undervalued and is headed for another run-up soon. Wouldn't be surprised to see an Alpha lotus hit the 10k mark. There's just no supply out there and everyone that's sold is going into the hands of solid collectors that aren't in a panic to resell. Years ago you could find plenty of alpha lotuses out there in varying conditions. As that supply was bought up, new supply just isn't hitting the secondary market.
I think people are going to be shocked in a couple years when supply of Power 9 completely dries up. Eventually the transfer between week hands and strong hands will be complete and wealthier players won't' feel the need to ever sell their Power. Right now you might still have some people that purchased power for $50 20 years ago and are looking to cash in on massive gains just to make rent. That source will dry up eventually. There are probably as many millionaires playing Magic world wide as there are Power 9 cards. Won't take long before we get a huge run-up. People act like 5k or 10k is a lot of money. Maybe to you it is, to others its a meaningless amount and they feel no pressure to sell their stuff to cash in for money they don't need. Its the same thing that happens to every collectible eventually. 30 years ago when you could have bought an Action Comics #1 for $20k people must have thought that was a crazy amount...
I've followed power since 2009 and indeed, the prices of power were stagnant for a long time. While the dual lands all bumped up, power remained stable or was 'stagnant' from an investment perpective.
Enter 2014.
I check the prices online again, and wow. They have all risen by a considerable percentage. In fact I think they are undervalued relative to the rest of the magic market.
I think theres a decent chance within the next year, power will correct in an upward direction. More people than ever are playing magic, and these people will come into money in the future. Power still and always has represented the quitessential collectible in magic.
It wouldnt surprise me at all if people traded...what is it now? 2 playsets of fetches for a mox sapphire.