I've honestly considered selling my unlimited power cards recently. But one thing has made me hesitate: The recent increase in prices.
I've followed power since 2009 and indeed, the prices of power were stagnant for a long time. While the dual lands all bumped up, power remained stable or was 'stagnant' from an investment perpective.
Enter 2014.
I check the prices online again, and wow. They have all risen by a considerable percentage. In fact I think they are undervalued relative to the rest of the magic market.
I think theres a decent chance within the next year, power will correct in an upward direction. More people than ever are playing magic, and these people will come into money in the future. Power still and always has represented the quitessential collectible in magic.
It wouldnt surprise me at all if people traded...what is it now? 2 playsets of fetches for a mox sapphire.
Fetchlands will likely get reprinted. Mox Sapphire will not.
Well....the point of what I was saying is that there is a certain relativity in people's subjective evaluations.
I think people have an inherent assumption that a misty rainforest should not be worth a black lotus.
What that means is in MTG, a misty rainforest can't keep rising indefinitely with black lotus remaining static.
Otherwise you could theoretically have people trading a misty rainforest for a black lotus. And people's subjective valuations just wont let that happen.
If all magic prices rise, the power nine will as well. In the long term, the rise of the power nine is inevitable.
Let me give another example. A more reasonable one.
Suppose black lotus is worth $1500 and rises as someone said...3% per year.
Suppose we have Underground sea, which looks like its rising 25% per year. Underground sea is currently $250
At the two current rates of growth, within 10 years, underground sea will be worth $2300 while black lotus will only be worth $1957 dollars.
Those rates of growth are unsustainable.
Let's hold the growth of the underground sea at 25% as an independent variable.
Because there are so many fewer copies of black lotus out there, that means given the rise of underground sea, the value of an underground sea will inevitablely "pull up" the price of the lotus.
In people's minds, a lotus is worth more than a sea. Which means that if the growth of the sea remains solid....black lotus growing only at 3% a year is unsustainable. At some point Black lotus will make a dramatic upward jump to match people's subjective evaluations.
I do agree with this. It's interesting because so many magic cards value is directly correlated to the cards playability along with availability, as in the case of UG Sea. But power's value lies almost completely within its scarcity, it's status as a Magic icon, which translates to it's collectibility. I think there will be a point when power will become so Iconic and desirable as Magic continues to grow, that these value increases are inevitable.
The thing is, while Revised duals are appreciating quickly, have ABU duals risen as much? I haven't checked but my gut says no. A duals in particular should not rise as much because they are less playable and are already pricey.
The thing is, while Revised duals are appreciating quickly, have ABU duals risen as much? I haven't checked but my gut says no. A duals in particular should not rise as much because they are less playable and are already pricey.
Hard to tell with Alpha and Betas, but most of the Unlimited duals had significant increases with the exception of a few. Biggest "winners" were Unlimited Volcanic and Tropical Islands.
The thing is, while Revised duals are appreciating quickly, have ABU duals risen as much? I haven't checked but my gut says no. A duals in particular should not rise as much because they are less playable and are already pricey.
Hard to tell with Alpha and Betas, but most of the Unlimited duals had significant increases with the exception of a few. Biggest "winners" were Unlimited Volcanic and Tropical Islands.
Oh I know they went up; I'm just saying run the percentages and see. My point being that just because a subset of broadly playable cards goes up by 25% doesn't mean all playable cards of similar rarity will go up 25%. The price ratio of P9 to duals isn't necessarily constant, and this is easily demonstrated if the price ratio of Unlimited duals to Revised duals is not constant.
different factors affecting price. Revised duals go up in value because of playability / format etc. This increases the notoriety of dual lands and new players gain an appreciation for these cards. Over time this adds to the collectible value of A/B duals because those players that use beat up revised duals will push up the demand for A/B on the collectability factor. It's a time lag. As more and more players demand dual lands, over time those players will become collectors of the older stuff. You can often front run these trends. Just like if vintage picks up again and the demand for beat up unlimited power goes up, I'd be buying all the nice A/B power in anticipation of a future price spike. Wouldn't be surprised to see alpha moxes hitting 3-5k and lotus closer to 10k in due time.
One thing I like to do is to check SGC's buylist price for reference on the price of AB duals vs AB power. Since the cards are so scarce that there's no reliable average really, so their buylist provides a decent picture. Right now their buylist price for Undergrounds and Volcanics are higher than the 2nd most expensive P9, which is Ancestral Recall and Mox Sapphire. I believe for alpha it breaks down to something like:
Again these numbers are off the top of my head but I believe that's somewhat accurate as of this week. All of these cards are listed as OOS in their inventory also, so likely they are treating demand based on inventory equally.
Unlimited Lotus jumped quite a bit yet again on SCG. Was 2500 just a couple months back, now up to 3500. Nice bump and zero stock. Unlikely to drop and more likely to keep going up until some supply comes back on the market
SCG just sold their entire Lotus supply. A $9000 graded beta lotus and a $4000 graded unlimited lotus. Now zero stock. This small supply of Power is slowly getting to the hands of those wealthy enough to never really need to sell. We'll see in another year when online vintage is well underway where the paper prices are. As duals go up in value nobody is going to want to trade power for duals straight across and this will drive the price of power up quite a bit IMO. No ceiling here but the bank accounts of wealthy MTG players. And globally, with the millions playing, there's no shortage of those...
It will be interesting to see what happens to other reserve list Vintage staples besides Power, too.
Lotus is the only piece I need to pick up now, and I feel it's getting out of reach... I could do without obviously, but will I be kicking myself for not picking up a beat up one for 2.2K? A damaged one (one cut corner) for 1.5K? I'm debating this...
SCG has always been very high for Power. UNL Recall is on there, NM, for 1200, but eBay prices show NM copies that routinely finish around 900$ from reputable sellers. I'd take SCG figures with a grain of salt, although as we know, they do tend to drive the prices up all across the board.
It will be interesting to see what happens to other reserve list Vintage staples besides Power, too.
Lotus is the only piece I need to pick up now, and I feel it's getting out of reach... I could do without obviously, but will I be kicking myself for not picking up a beat up one for 2.2K? A damaged one (one cut corner) for 1.5K? I'm debating this...
problem with lotus is that it's an iconic card and collectors will want this even if they will never play it. The supply is extremely low and the more time that passes the more these cards filter into the hands of those that don't ever have a financial reason to sell them. It's what happens to a lot of high end collectibles (baseball cards, comics, art, etc). While paying a lot of a lotus may not make a lot of sense to a lot of people, chances are you're not going to lose money on it. Also, the higher the price goes, the more interest there will be in the lower priced beet up ones. Just like there is still high demand for low grade Mickey Mantle or Babe Ruth rookie cards from those that don't have tens of thousands for the nice condition copies.
SCG has always been very high for Power. UNL Recall is on there, NM, for 1200, but eBay prices show NM copies that routinely finish around 900$ from reputable sellers. I'd take SCG figures with a grain of salt, although as we know, they do tend to drive the prices up all across the board.
I'd argue their prices are market price. Why? Because they sell at those prices. It's not like they have Lotus at 3k and nobody is buying it. Read my previous post. The only ones they even had were high priced graded and they sold those. Now nothing. So how can something be overpriced when they cant even get stock in or keep them in at those prices. My market focus is different then most. Maybe with generic modern barn their prices suck. Maybe if you're putting together a type 2 deck their prices are high. But if you're looking for high end stuff their prices are right on the mark and most serious collectors go to them for that type of stuff. I have a friend who picks up high end power 2k 4k 6k 10k pieces and just sticks them in his safety deposit box. He only deals with SCG as he finds their grading and reliability on the high end stuff second to none. He's not one to go gamble on ebay with zero feedback sellers from Brazil. Even on forums from respectable dealers, the supply of power has dried up. Go to MOTL or other websites, before power was fairly easy to get. Now if you're looking for some high grade investment worthy stuff, it's nowhere to be found anymore. I'm also finding the liquidity of high end stuff to be very good. Random stuff is usually sold to stores at %50 of what they might get for it. With power, I can get %80 maybe %90 of something so hot that it takes zero effort for the dealer to sell. If I can get him an alpha lotus for 9k and he can turn it around for 10k in 5 minutes to his list of buyers, he'll take that deal any day of the week. The high end magic market is a lot different than the regular cards. That's why guys like Daniel Chang aren't busting boxes and ebaying $5 rares every time a new set comes out. It's a different market, different resellers and different clientele
Thanks for the very clear response! Makes sense for SCG. I too turn to them from time to time for higher-end purchases and was never disappointed.
Related topic... Why do some CE Lotus end up fetching really high prices on eBay? Most of them end up selling for around 200, how come from time to time some sell for twice that? Condition alone? People are looking to get these graded?
That sounds like a sound reason. A printed lotus is a lotus, even if CE, and will always be sought after, whether it's for collecting, cube, or vintage proxy play.
SCG just sold their entire Lotus supply. A $9000 graded beta lotus and a $4000 graded unlimited lotus. Now zero stock. This small supply of Power is slowly getting to the hands of those wealthy enough to never really need to sell. We'll see in another year when online vintage is well underway where the paper prices are. As duals go up in value nobody is going to want to trade power for duals straight across and this will drive the price of power up quite a bit IMO. No ceiling here but the bank accounts of wealthy MTG players. And globally, with the millions playing, there's no shortage of those...
Related topic... Why do some CE Lotus end up fetching really high prices on eBay? Most of them end up selling for around 200, how come from time to time some sell for twice that? Condition alone? People are looking to get these graded?
Just like con said. It's an official printed Lotus. Not a proxy or fan made. Even though it's not tournament playable, how many people really play with a graded lotus. It's pure collectible value. Which is why I like vintage / power as an investment in general. There's no downward pressure on these cards as they can't really get more unplayable as they are now. vintage is not exactly the most popular and played format in Magic so current values in regards to playability are as low as they're going to get. Any small resurgence in interest in vintage will drive prices up quite a bit due to the low supply. If not, they'll continue to remain the top MTG collectibles until the game dies off.
I offered this analysis a while back, but nowhere does it hold more true than black lotus.
In another thread, I established that StarCityGames exhibits price leadership in the magic community. It's a combination of it's size, presence, ease of accessibility, or in economic terms--dominance. Basically, whatever StarCityGames sets as the price, that price will be influential in the minds of other magic players. Ex. It may not be the final price accepted by players, but it always seems to come up during trade list matching.
Premise #1 -- SCG's price for any given card is an influential indicator of the card's accepted price in the magic community.
Premise #2 --SCG price for selling a card MUST be higher than it's buylist price. (simple buy low sell high aspect of all business)
Premise #3 --Black Lotus is a rare collectible and unlike standard staples or modern cards, SCG cannot effectively restock their supply of black lotuses by buylisting it significantly under market value. In order to restock effectively, SCG must offer a buy price similar to market price.
Premise #4 --SCG must periodically restock their supply of black lotuses when they sell out. (i shouldnt have to explain this)
Conclusion #1 --In restocking their supply, SCG will pay close to market value to restock their supply of black lotuses because (premise 3), people are generally unwilling to part with their beloved lotuses significantly below market value.
Conclusion #2 --Based on premise 2, when SCG buys near market price, they will set the price of lotus higher to make a profit.
Conclusion #3 --Based on premise 1, this new higher price will be influential in the magic community.
Corallary #1 --As long as customers continue to buy from Starcitygames, the rise in card prices for highly sought about collectibles is inherently inflationary in nature.
Final Conclusion, P9 is integrated into an economic cycle that places continuous upward pressure on its prices.
If not, they'll continue to remain the top MTG collectibles until the game dies off.
Changing the subject a bit, what do you guys think will happen to the price of P9 if the game does die off? Let say, MTG declines and Hasbro/WOTC calls it a day in ~20 years. Assuming Black Lotus and P9 continues its upward growth with plateaus near the end of MTG life, can it possibly hold its value through the death of Magic, simply based on its status as a collectible as well as the tiny numbers in existence?
My thought is that by that time, and even arguably now, Magic is so ingrained in the culture of gaming that even if Magic dies the game will continue to live on through cubes and in kitchen tables. Although 99% of the other cards will tank into worthless pieces of cardboard, Black Lotuses are already rare enough and would be able to hold a substantial value simply as the most iconic piece of a significant part of gaming history.
I guess a big part of this question would be exactly how magic dies--that could possibly affect the price in different ways.
If not, they'll continue to remain the top MTG collectibles until the game dies off.
I guess a big part of this question would be exactly how magic dies--that could possibly affect the price in different ways.
magic cards will continue to have value as long as the community supports the game. As long as private businesses continue to support tournament formats, give prizes, keep a ranking system, maintain rules etc. the game can easily survive without any help from Hasbro / Wizards. Netrunner was a blip on the radar and the cards still have value even though the current community of players is extremely small. Magic will still be huge even if Hasbro quits making it. The number of sets/cards is huge and could support the game indefinitely. Remember most new sets duplicate cards / have similar abilities, similar power levels, minor variations etc. You could stop printing new sets and have tournaments with specific rules / deck construction limits that could basically go on forever. The only way magic dies and stops becoming collectible is if all of a sudden millions of players and collectors around the world decide to just drop the game all at once for no good reason really.
Corallary #1 --As long as customers continue to buy from Starcitygames, the rise in card prices for highly sought about collectibles is inherently inflationary in nature.
Final Conclusion, P9 is integrated into an economic cycle that places continuous upward pressure on its prices.
This is true for all cards that have a fixed or growing demand, not just P9. However, your premise is slightly wrong, and here's why.
Why the SCG price influences the market price of a card, it does not SET the market price of a card for most buyers. A SCG buyer is already part of the upper echelon of customers willing to pay a premium over the market price. The actual market price is in-between the buylist price for SCG and other vendors, and the SCG/vendor sell price. And SCG does acquire new stock at its buylist price. But inevitably the price pressure for cards selling in that gap pushes that buylist upwards, which in turn pushes that sell price upwards. It is inherently inflationary.
To reduce the price, either the supply of the card most go up (reprints), or demand must go down (bannings, being outclassed by newer cards, or general decline in the popularity of the game).
magic cards will continue to have value as long as the community supports the game. As long as private businesses continue to support tournament formats, give prizes, keep a ranking system, maintain rules etc. the game can easily survive without any help from Hasbro / Wizards. Netrunner was a blip on the radar and the cards still have value even though the current community of players is extremely small. Magic will still be huge even if Hasbro quits making it. The number of sets/cards is huge and could support the game indefinitely. Remember most new sets duplicate cards / have similar abilities, similar power levels, minor variations etc. You could stop printing new sets and have tournaments with specific rules / deck construction limits that could basically go on forever. The only way magic dies and stops becoming collectible is if all of a sudden millions of players and collectors around the world decide to just drop the game all at once for no good reason really.
If MTG went belly-up from Hasbro's side, and they couldn't find a buyer that wanted to carry it forward (both are unlikely events, but no hobby is guaranteed to last forever), prices would absolutely fall. Tournaments today can have prizes because of the profits on new retail product, and tournaments drive new players to play, complete, buy. Once those sponsored, sanctioned events dry up and all there is left is secondary market sales, without the hype of spoilers, new sets, new formats etc - the market wouldn't ever die completely - too many cards now and kitchen table games that would carry on, but it would drop significantly.
I think what's more likely is we'll see another slight bubble pop (as we did in mid-2000s) where a couple bad sets in a row or a new card game makes even a slight dent in popularity - when that happens a lot of folks may rush to sell their collections out of fear. I know a lot of friends sitting now on valuable reserve-list collections and wondering "when is the right time to sell? this is nuts! I could buy a car!"
magic cards will continue to have value as long as the community supports the game. As long as private businesses continue to support tournament formats, give prizes, keep a ranking system, maintain rules etc. the game can easily survive without any help from Hasbro / Wizards. Netrunner was a blip on the radar and the cards still have value even though the current community of players is extremely small. Magic will still be huge even if Hasbro quits making it. The number of sets/cards is huge and could support the game indefinitely. Remember most new sets duplicate cards / have similar abilities, similar power levels, minor variations etc. You could stop printing new sets and have tournaments with specific rules / deck construction limits that could basically go on forever. The only way magic dies and stops becoming collectible is if all of a sudden millions of players and collectors around the world decide to just drop the game all at once for no good reason really.
If MTG went belly-up from Hasbro's side, and they couldn't find a buyer that wanted to carry it forward (both are unlikely events, but no hobby is guaranteed to last forever), prices would absolutely fall. Tournaments today can have prizes because of the profits on new retail product, and tournaments drive new players to play, complete, buy. Once those sponsored, sanctioned events dry up and all there is left is secondary market sales, without the hype of spoilers, new sets, new formats etc - the market wouldn't ever die completely - too many cards now and kitchen table games that would carry on, but it would drop significantly.
I think what's more likely is we'll see another slight bubble pop (as we did in mid-2000s) where a couple bad sets in a row or a new card game makes even a slight dent in popularity - when that happens a lot of folks may rush to sell their collections out of fear. I know a lot of friends sitting now on valuable reserve-list collections and wondering "when is the right time to sell? this is nuts! I could buy a car!"
That's the thing with collectibles. Over time they transfer from weak to strong hands. Eventually all those people in shock at how much their stuff is worth will eventually sell regardless of magic dying or not. Just the allure of the high prices will be enough. Wealthy collectors will buy it up, effectively removing those cards from the available card pool. Just like if you found a $10 million piece of art work in your garage chances are the first thing you do is contact an auction house to get that thing sold and the cash in your bank. While the person that ends up paying $10million for it really has no intention of ever selling it as it becomes a status symbol in their home. Also, I don't think tournaments need Hasbro. Sure the transition may be very rough, but vintage survived during it's hayday despite Hasbro. There are plenty of other sports and activities that survive without official sponsorship. It will depend on how creative the private sector and the average player can get. I also think that magic as a hobby can survive on a smaller scale. Just like sports card collecting is basically dead compared to the bubble mania in the 80s and 90s, there are still plenty of valuable and proffitble modern cards being made because those companies adjusted their products. Lower print runs, higher quality, appeal to their core base etc. Heck, there are even secondary manufacturers that re-issue product like re-packs. Hero's of Sports is a huge seller and it's basically just a high end collectible repack. A private company could make legit repacks with mixed era cards, newer, vintage, some power 9, redemptions for original art work etc and probably sell out very quickly. So many ways to keep this thing going without Hasbro.
Yeah, I'm firmly in the party that agrees that they will increase indefinitely. And I think it's absolutely correct to compare them with baseball cards. Yes, baseball cards are much older and that's why they are worth a lot more, but how much was a babe ruth card from 1927 worth in 1947? Even adjusted for inflation, it probably wasn't as much as a beta lotus is now. I will also argue that if Magic comes to an end, that doesn't mean the card will become worthless, although it would probably slow or stall the increase in price. Baseball cards have never had "play value" and that has not stopped them from being collectible.
No more that 10% of your portfolio should be invested in magic. No more. If you are relying on P9 cards for your wealth you are doomed. I would diversify. I am a firm believer that you should invest in mutual funds. snip I believe that any person who has their entire 'fortune' in MTG is screwed. This is my opinion and you are more than welcomed to ignore it.
Let's not send people to webistes please. There are plenty of good and negative reviews for that website. SBC
so SCG was finally able to get their hands on a couple of Black Lotus. A BGS 9 Beta for 9k and a MP Unlimited for $2500... They both lasted about 2 days. So much for falling demand or how expensive cards are tough to get rid of. Not everyone playing magic is a 15 year old kid living off a $5/week allowance. $9000 for what is basically a NM beta lotus. They're going to have to bump their prices again soon on those because nobody is selling.
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Fetchlands will likely get reprinted. Mox Sapphire will not.
I think people have an inherent assumption that a misty rainforest should not be worth a black lotus.
What that means is in MTG, a misty rainforest can't keep rising indefinitely with black lotus remaining static.
Otherwise you could theoretically have people trading a misty rainforest for a black lotus. And people's subjective valuations just wont let that happen.
If all magic prices rise, the power nine will as well. In the long term, the rise of the power nine is inevitable.
Let me give another example. A more reasonable one.
Suppose black lotus is worth $1500 and rises as someone said...3% per year.
Suppose we have Underground sea, which looks like its rising 25% per year. Underground sea is currently $250
At the two current rates of growth, within 10 years, underground sea will be worth $2300 while black lotus will only be worth $1957 dollars.
Those rates of growth are unsustainable.
Let's hold the growth of the underground sea at 25% as an independent variable.
Because there are so many fewer copies of black lotus out there, that means given the rise of underground sea, the value of an underground sea will inevitablely "pull up" the price of the lotus.
In people's minds, a lotus is worth more than a sea. Which means that if the growth of the sea remains solid....black lotus growing only at 3% a year is unsustainable. At some point Black lotus will make a dramatic upward jump to match people's subjective evaluations.
Hard to tell with Alpha and Betas, but most of the Unlimited duals had significant increases with the exception of a few. Biggest "winners" were Unlimited Volcanic and Tropical Islands.
Oh I know they went up; I'm just saying run the percentages and see. My point being that just because a subset of broadly playable cards goes up by 25% doesn't mean all playable cards of similar rarity will go up 25%. The price ratio of P9 to duals isn't necessarily constant, and this is easily demonstrated if the price ratio of Unlimited duals to Revised duals is not constant.
Lotus: $5000
Sea: $3500
Sapphire:$2000
Recall: $2000
Again these numbers are off the top of my head but I believe that's somewhat accurate as of this week. All of these cards are listed as OOS in their inventory also, so likely they are treating demand based on inventory equally.
Lotus is the only piece I need to pick up now, and I feel it's getting out of reach... I could do without obviously, but will I be kicking myself for not picking up a beat up one for 2.2K? A damaged one (one cut corner) for 1.5K? I'm debating this...
SCG has always been very high for Power. UNL Recall is on there, NM, for 1200, but eBay prices show NM copies that routinely finish around 900$ from reputable sellers. I'd take SCG figures with a grain of salt, although as we know, they do tend to drive the prices up all across the board.
problem with lotus is that it's an iconic card and collectors will want this even if they will never play it. The supply is extremely low and the more time that passes the more these cards filter into the hands of those that don't ever have a financial reason to sell them. It's what happens to a lot of high end collectibles (baseball cards, comics, art, etc). While paying a lot of a lotus may not make a lot of sense to a lot of people, chances are you're not going to lose money on it. Also, the higher the price goes, the more interest there will be in the lower priced beet up ones. Just like there is still high demand for low grade Mickey Mantle or Babe Ruth rookie cards from those that don't have tens of thousands for the nice condition copies.
I'd argue their prices are market price. Why? Because they sell at those prices. It's not like they have Lotus at 3k and nobody is buying it. Read my previous post. The only ones they even had were high priced graded and they sold those. Now nothing. So how can something be overpriced when they cant even get stock in or keep them in at those prices. My market focus is different then most. Maybe with generic modern barn their prices suck. Maybe if you're putting together a type 2 deck their prices are high. But if you're looking for high end stuff their prices are right on the mark and most serious collectors go to them for that type of stuff. I have a friend who picks up high end power 2k 4k 6k 10k pieces and just sticks them in his safety deposit box. He only deals with SCG as he finds their grading and reliability on the high end stuff second to none. He's not one to go gamble on ebay with zero feedback sellers from Brazil. Even on forums from respectable dealers, the supply of power has dried up. Go to MOTL or other websites, before power was fairly easy to get. Now if you're looking for some high grade investment worthy stuff, it's nowhere to be found anymore. I'm also finding the liquidity of high end stuff to be very good. Random stuff is usually sold to stores at %50 of what they might get for it. With power, I can get %80 maybe %90 of something so hot that it takes zero effort for the dealer to sell. If I can get him an alpha lotus for 9k and he can turn it around for 10k in 5 minutes to his list of buyers, he'll take that deal any day of the week. The high end magic market is a lot different than the regular cards. That's why guys like Daniel Chang aren't busting boxes and ebaying $5 rares every time a new set comes out. It's a different market, different resellers and different clientele
Related topic... Why do some CE Lotus end up fetching really high prices on eBay? Most of them end up selling for around 200, how come from time to time some sell for twice that? Condition alone? People are looking to get these graded?
What grade did they have?
don't remember exactly, but I believe they were both BGS 9s
Just like con said. It's an official printed Lotus. Not a proxy or fan made. Even though it's not tournament playable, how many people really play with a graded lotus. It's pure collectible value. Which is why I like vintage / power as an investment in general. There's no downward pressure on these cards as they can't really get more unplayable as they are now. vintage is not exactly the most popular and played format in Magic so current values in regards to playability are as low as they're going to get. Any small resurgence in interest in vintage will drive prices up quite a bit due to the low supply. If not, they'll continue to remain the top MTG collectibles until the game dies off.
In another thread, I established that StarCityGames exhibits price leadership in the magic community. It's a combination of it's size, presence, ease of accessibility, or in economic terms--dominance. Basically, whatever StarCityGames sets as the price, that price will be influential in the minds of other magic players. Ex. It may not be the final price accepted by players, but it always seems to come up during trade list matching.
Premise #1 -- SCG's price for any given card is an influential indicator of the card's accepted price in the magic community.
Premise #2 --SCG price for selling a card MUST be higher than it's buylist price. (simple buy low sell high aspect of all business)
Premise #3 --Black Lotus is a rare collectible and unlike standard staples or modern cards, SCG cannot effectively restock their supply of black lotuses by buylisting it significantly under market value. In order to restock effectively, SCG must offer a buy price similar to market price.
Premise #4 --SCG must periodically restock their supply of black lotuses when they sell out. (i shouldnt have to explain this)
Conclusion #1 --In restocking their supply, SCG will pay close to market value to restock their supply of black lotuses because (premise 3), people are generally unwilling to part with their beloved lotuses significantly below market value.
Conclusion #2 --Based on premise 2, when SCG buys near market price, they will set the price of lotus higher to make a profit.
Conclusion #3 --Based on premise 1, this new higher price will be influential in the magic community.
Corallary #1 --As long as customers continue to buy from Starcitygames, the rise in card prices for highly sought about collectibles is inherently inflationary in nature.
Final Conclusion, P9 is integrated into an economic cycle that places continuous upward pressure on its prices.
Changing the subject a bit, what do you guys think will happen to the price of P9 if the game does die off? Let say, MTG declines and Hasbro/WOTC calls it a day in ~20 years. Assuming Black Lotus and P9 continues its upward growth with plateaus near the end of MTG life, can it possibly hold its value through the death of Magic, simply based on its status as a collectible as well as the tiny numbers in existence?
My thought is that by that time, and even arguably now, Magic is so ingrained in the culture of gaming that even if Magic dies the game will continue to live on through cubes and in kitchen tables. Although 99% of the other cards will tank into worthless pieces of cardboard, Black Lotuses are already rare enough and would be able to hold a substantial value simply as the most iconic piece of a significant part of gaming history.
I guess a big part of this question would be exactly how magic dies--that could possibly affect the price in different ways.
magic cards will continue to have value as long as the community supports the game. As long as private businesses continue to support tournament formats, give prizes, keep a ranking system, maintain rules etc. the game can easily survive without any help from Hasbro / Wizards. Netrunner was a blip on the radar and the cards still have value even though the current community of players is extremely small. Magic will still be huge even if Hasbro quits making it. The number of sets/cards is huge and could support the game indefinitely. Remember most new sets duplicate cards / have similar abilities, similar power levels, minor variations etc. You could stop printing new sets and have tournaments with specific rules / deck construction limits that could basically go on forever. The only way magic dies and stops becoming collectible is if all of a sudden millions of players and collectors around the world decide to just drop the game all at once for no good reason really.
This is true for all cards that have a fixed or growing demand, not just P9. However, your premise is slightly wrong, and here's why.
Why the SCG price influences the market price of a card, it does not SET the market price of a card for most buyers. A SCG buyer is already part of the upper echelon of customers willing to pay a premium over the market price. The actual market price is in-between the buylist price for SCG and other vendors, and the SCG/vendor sell price. And SCG does acquire new stock at its buylist price. But inevitably the price pressure for cards selling in that gap pushes that buylist upwards, which in turn pushes that sell price upwards. It is inherently inflationary.
To reduce the price, either the supply of the card most go up (reprints), or demand must go down (bannings, being outclassed by newer cards, or general decline in the popularity of the game).
If MTG went belly-up from Hasbro's side, and they couldn't find a buyer that wanted to carry it forward (both are unlikely events, but no hobby is guaranteed to last forever), prices would absolutely fall. Tournaments today can have prizes because of the profits on new retail product, and tournaments drive new players to play, complete, buy. Once those sponsored, sanctioned events dry up and all there is left is secondary market sales, without the hype of spoilers, new sets, new formats etc - the market wouldn't ever die completely - too many cards now and kitchen table games that would carry on, but it would drop significantly.
I think what's more likely is we'll see another slight bubble pop (as we did in mid-2000s) where a couple bad sets in a row or a new card game makes even a slight dent in popularity - when that happens a lot of folks may rush to sell their collections out of fear. I know a lot of friends sitting now on valuable reserve-list collections and wondering "when is the right time to sell? this is nuts! I could buy a car!"
That's the thing with collectibles. Over time they transfer from weak to strong hands. Eventually all those people in shock at how much their stuff is worth will eventually sell regardless of magic dying or not. Just the allure of the high prices will be enough. Wealthy collectors will buy it up, effectively removing those cards from the available card pool. Just like if you found a $10 million piece of art work in your garage chances are the first thing you do is contact an auction house to get that thing sold and the cash in your bank. While the person that ends up paying $10million for it really has no intention of ever selling it as it becomes a status symbol in their home. Also, I don't think tournaments need Hasbro. Sure the transition may be very rough, but vintage survived during it's hayday despite Hasbro. There are plenty of other sports and activities that survive without official sponsorship. It will depend on how creative the private sector and the average player can get. I also think that magic as a hobby can survive on a smaller scale. Just like sports card collecting is basically dead compared to the bubble mania in the 80s and 90s, there are still plenty of valuable and proffitble modern cards being made because those companies adjusted their products. Lower print runs, higher quality, appeal to their core base etc. Heck, there are even secondary manufacturers that re-issue product like re-packs. Hero's of Sports is a huge seller and it's basically just a high end collectible repack. A private company could make legit repacks with mixed era cards, newer, vintage, some power 9, redemptions for original art work etc and probably sell out very quickly. So many ways to keep this thing going without Hasbro.
Let's not send people to webistes please. There are plenty of good and negative reviews for that website. SBC