Yes, absolutely.
While you can still march down to the local gaming store, open any old Rav-block booster and potentially pick up one of the shocks you've just traded away, it's worth it.
The shocks are flooding the market, the fetches are doing the absolute opposite. Supply and demand.
For the most part, yes, that seems to be a good trade. You might be able to get a better deal for Temple Garden, Sacred Foundry, and Stomping Ground as these are the most valuable shocks at the moment.
In a year, I think Shocks will be much more valuable than they are now. It is hard to tell which lands will appreciate faster in that amount of time though.
The time to trade shocks into fetches was before the Return to Ravnica block came out. Right now, shocks have just been reprinted en masse and are climbing up from a low.
Fetches have never been higher. It seems likely you will be trading a set of cards that has recently lost 70% of their value into a set that will be reprinted later and go through a similar cycle. Holding onto your shocks for a couple of years will give you better trading value from them.
Always trade new for old. Always trade standard back. No question. The Sacred foundry/arid mesa deal is the thinnest but well worth it. You can pick up the others for a song right now.
For the most part, it's a no brainer. I might not do 3 temple garden for 1 arid mesa, but I'd do 3 steam vents for any of them for sure. Do keep in mind that when RtR first came out, the lands were (roughly) the same value, but now fetchlands have gone up and shocklands gone down and everyone is in panic mode.
I'd only do it if I needed the Fetches to be honest. The shocks are at an all time low and will only crawl back upwards as supply finally starts to fade with the release of M14 and Theros ending RTR block drafts. The Fetches are at an all-time high and will continue to climb until they are reprinted, which will happen.
I'd hold my shocks, and then trade a shock for 2 fetches when they are inevitably reprinted in a couple years. The only caveat here would be if you need the fetches for modern. In that case, I'd wait until after Theros drops, so that you get the most out of the shocks while they are still standard legal.
If you're looking to use the fetches soon, absolutely do it, assuming you can re-acquire the shocks fairly quickly. What nobody's mentioned yet here is that most Modern decks that run shocks and fetches run about twice as many fetches as shocks.
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Talking purely from an investment standpoint, I'd say don't do it. Buy low, sell high, right? Here you'll be doing the opposite. Shocklands are about as perfect an investment as you can get with MTG right now since they're all but guaranteed to go up in value greatly through 2014. The fetchlands might continue to rise, but they're not going to double in the next year, that's for sure.
I'd only do it if I needed the Fetches to be honest. The shocks are at an all time low and will only crawl back upwards as supply finally starts to fade with the release of M14 and Theros ending RTR block drafts. The Fetches are at an all-time high and will continue to climb until they are reprinted, which will happen.
I'd hold my shocks, and then trade a shock for 2 fetches when they are inevitably reprinted in a couple years. The only caveat here would be if you need the fetches for modern. In that case, I'd wait until after Theros drops, so that you get the most out of the shocks while they are still standard legal.
You are aware that the Shocks will be around until the block after Theros comes out right?
I also have a prediction all time low for shocks will be just before shocks are about to rotate from standard.
Talking purely from an investment standpoint, I'd say don't do it. Buy low, sell high, right? Here you'll be doing the opposite. Shocklands are about as perfect an investment as you can get with MTG right now since they're all but guaranteed to go up in value greatly through 2014. The fetchlands might continue to rise, but they're not going to double in the next year, that's for sure.
On the other hand, shocklands are pretty easy to trade for and replace right now if you do trade them. Much harder to trade for fetchies now.
Talking purely from an investment standpoint, I'd say don't do it. Buy low, sell high, right? Here you'll be doing the opposite. Shocklands are about as perfect an investment as you can get with MTG right now since they're all but guaranteed to go up in value greatly through 2014. The fetchlands might continue to rise, but they're not going to double in the next year, that's for sure.
I think he meant to say that if your stocks of Shocks are available for trade; then it is OK to trade. You need shocks to play a majority of Standard decks right now, thus letting them loose for exspensive fetches will just cause you buy more shocks to replace them. Might be better to trade extra shocks for fetches and add money for the deal.
For the sake of this evaluation, let's assume you're trading Steam Vents into Scalding Tarn.
7 mid vs 38.5 mid. The ratio is roughly 1:5.5
OK. Let's first go the crazy route. Let's assume that post rotation, UWR becomes god-tier in Standard (not Caw-Blade, more like Delver) and Steam Vents hits $20. At the same time, Modern picks up huge amounts of steam and during Modern season Scalding Tarn hits $60.
The Scalding Tarn guy gained $21.5. The Steam Vents guy gained 5.5 x $13 = $71.5. Wowza.
But that's rather imaginative. To be more realistic, we need to find the break even point. Let's set Steam Vents to a constant $50 during Modern season. That's easily imaginable, even by conservative standards. So then the Scalding Tarn guy gains $11.5. Cool beans.
11.5/5.5 = 2.1
So, in order to match the Scalding Tarn's growth, Steam Vents has to grow about $2. Now, I don't know about you, but when I think about Standard lands post rotation, I think big prices. Woodland Cemetery was a $17 card at one point and I remember trading for it at $3 during SOM-INN. Think about how much better Overgrown Tomb is than Woodland Cemetery. It's quite easy to imagine Steam Vents rising to $9, if not much, much more.
Now, to reverse the calculations. Let's assume that Steam Vents gains to a relatively tame value of $14, doubling in price. $7 x 5.5 = 38.5. In order to match the gain of the trader with the Steam Vents, the Scalding Tarn will have to rise to $77! While not impossible, I cannot imagine Wizards not reprinting fetches immediately in response.
I admit, the cards I used were the outliers. Steam Vents is criminally undervalued and Scalding Tarn is overvalued. Still, the principle is the same. Because shocklands have the near guarantee of rising and the potential to explode, trading multiple shocks towards a single fetch could prove rather disastrous, even if the fetch explodes, simply because it's just one card.
We are also completely aware of the trajectory of the shocklands. They're not going to be reprinted anytime soon. They'll rise post INN rotation, take a hit after RTR rotation and slowly climb back up. On the other hand, fetches are due for a reprint at some point in the future, possibly even in the block past Theros and a heavy reprint in Standard could crash the market, especially if the art stays the same.
I think he meant to say that if your stocks of Shocks are available for trade; then it is OK to trade. You need shocks to play a majority of Standard decks right now, thus letting them loose for exspensive fetches will just cause you buy more shocks to replace them. Might be better to trade extra shocks for fetches and add money for the deal.
You're both talking about this like it's a game. Which is of course extremely valid, but that's why I said I was approaching it from a purely financial aspect where there's no such thing as "extra" and no need to "replace" anything. In that case, you've gotta trade fetches for shocks all day.
If you need some fetches, awesome, trade those shocklands away! But don't be surprised when the overall value of your fetch is lower 6 months from now.
You're both talking about this like it's a game. Which is of course extremely valid, but that's why I said I was approaching it from a purely financial aspect where there's no such thing as "extra" and no need to "replace" anything. In that case, you've gotta trade fetches for shocks all day.
If you need some fetches, awesome, trade those shocklands away! But don't be surprised when the overall value of your fetch is lower 6 months from now.
A game?
I don't see a price drop since everyone wants 4 of each. As long as there is no reprint, there will be no price drops.
I don't see a price drop since everyone wants 4 of each. As long as there is no reprint, there will be no price drops.
True, however shocks are better investments than fetches at the moment because fetches aren't really going to rise more than the shocks will rise come theros. They may rise more come modern PTQ season, but the plan should be this:
Trade fetches for lots of shocklands now. When innistrad rotates and the only good dual lands are shocklands + some new set of lands that will probably be worse than shocklands from M14 maybe or theros itself, the shocks double in value. You then trade the shocklands back for zendikar fetches at roughly the same value they're at right now. Come modern PTQ season the zendikar fetches jump in value due to players needing them for modern.
TL;DR - Buy low sell high or in this case trade for the underpriced cards that go up then rinse and repeat.
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True, however shocks are better investments than fetches at the moment because fetches aren't really going to rise more than the shocks will rise come theros. They may rise more come modern PTQ season, but the plan should be this:
Trade fetches for lots of shocklands now. When innistrad rotates and the only good dual lands are shocklands + some new set of lands that will probably be worse than shocklands from M14 maybe or theros itself, the shocks double in value. You then trade the shocklands back for zendikar fetches at roughly the same value they're at right now. Come modern PTQ season the zendikar fetches jump in value due to players needing them for modern.
TL;DR - Buy low sell high or in this case trade for the underpriced cards that go up then rinse and repeat.
There are mega crap load of shocks in the market and still growing. Fetches lands are not growing in stocks. Why would shock lands grow anymore if the demand is being met with production? Fetch lands will take a while to be reprinted if they are at all. We cannot assume fetch lands will be reprinted. I can trade shock lands for fetches and rebuy or pack the rest easy, but not the other way around. Why not just buy the fetch lands slowly through strict monthly budgeting? trading your stocks of shock lands for Fetches seems greedy. Will Shock lands go up in price? Yes and No. Yes for when grand prix's and other events occur and no after or during winning deck inactivity.
Reprinting of the Zendikar fetches is a matter of "when", not "if". Wizard will not allow such highly priced staples especially it is multiples in almost every modern deck.
I speculate that it won't be reprinted while shocks are legal in standard, as it will create a rather powerful mana base for all decks but who knows...
They are moderately close right now but I am wondering more about the next year or so.
Are we talking OG shocks, or the RTR block reprints? I ask because there's a significant difference of around 40% (~$10 for reprints, while the old school shocks are around ~$17 [higher if containing blue]).
Reprinting of the Zendikar fetches is a matter of "when", not "if". Wizard will not allow such highly priced staples especially it is multiples in almost every modern deck.
I speculate that it won't be reprinted while shocks are legal in standard, as it will create a rather powerful mana base for all decks but who knows...
We cannot say that Wizards will reprint fetch lands cause the "friendly" fetches have not seen reprint in LLLOOONNNGGG time. Wizards does not care about pricing, but selling product. A reprint would be nice, but to auto assume a reprint of anything for the sake of being a right is a logical fallacy.
Do I hope a reprint will occur for both? You bet your ass I do!
There are mega crap load of shocks in the market and still growing. Fetches lands are not growing in stocks. Why would shock lands grow anymore if the demand is being met with production? Fetch lands will take a while to be reprinted if they are at all. We cannot assume fetch lands will be reprinted. I can trade shock lands for fetches and rebuy or pack the rest easy, but not the other way around. Why not just buy the fetch lands slowly through strict monthly budgeting? trading your stocks of shock lands for Fetches seems greedy. Will Shock lands go up in price? Yes and No. Yes for when grand prix's and other events occur and no after or during winning deck inactivity.
The whole point is demand will not be met by supply as soon as the new season rolls around. People are going to stop drafting shocks and in conjunction the player will simultaneously increase. What we are currently witnessing is their floor, the worst possible environment for them from a financial perspective.
Bread Connoisseur is spot on with his game plan. Playing the formats (and understanding the cycles) is extremely important.
We cannot say that Wizards will reprint fetch lands cause the "friendly" fetches have not seen reprint in LLLOOONNNGGG time. Wizards does not care about pricing, but selling product. A reprint would be nice, but to auto assume a reprint of anything for the sake of being a right is a logical fallacy.
Do I hope a reprint will occur for both? You bet your ass I do!
Wizard will print fetches not because it hasn't been printed in a long time, but because they want to promote Modern That's the reason we're seeing shocks reprinted, Modern Masters and a bunch of other good Modern cards reprinted all at once. Fetches are a staple of Modern and I do believe Wizard will reprint them sooner than later due to their prohibitive prices and availability now.
And similarly I do hope they reprint it in the next block after Theros
We cannot say that Wizards will reprint fetch lands cause the "friendly" fetches have not seen reprint in LLLOOONNNGGG time. Wizards does not care about pricing, but selling product. A reprint would be nice, but to auto assume a reprint of anything for the sake of being a right is a logical fallacy.
Do I hope a reprint will occur for both? You bet your ass I do!
I would bet my entire collection that zendikar fetchlands will be reprinted at some point in a standard legal set or in a modern masters set. Before modern came into existence I wouldn't have been sure if fetchlands would be reprinted. With modern in the picture there is zero doubt in my mind that fetchlands WILL be reprinted some day. I doubt that will happen in theros as shocks+fetches is far too powerful of fixing for standard, I know I would sling 5 color control every single day of the week with fetches and shocks in the same standard environment.
The zendikar fetches are high at the moment. The shocklands are at their lowest price tag currently. No dual lands in the core set only makes my argument more valid, as shocklands will be used even more with less dual lands in the environment since shocklands will likely be the best manafixing available post rotation with no M10 duals in the environment and depending on what theros gives us for dual lands. You usually want to buy cards that are in print currently/at their lowest as when they're out of print and the supply dries up then their prices go up. It happens every single year. Look at liliana of the veil. She could be had for ~$15 while innistrad was in print a year ago. No look where she peaked. Oh that's right, she went up by 35 dollars. Same happened with restoration angel. Release weekend restoration angel could be had for around 7 a pop and angel peaked at more than double that. Shocklands are primed to jump come theros launch and states a few weeks after that.
I would snap trade zendikar fetches for original ravnica shocks 3 to 1 no matter what shocks they were and assuming they were in NM condition. There's almost no downside to that.
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They are moderately close right now but I am wondering more about the next year or so.
Shocks are very easy to pick up right now, and fetches are doing nothing but climbing higher and higher every day.
While you can still march down to the local gaming store, open any old Rav-block booster and potentially pick up one of the shocks you've just traded away, it's worth it.
The shocks are flooding the market, the fetches are doing the absolute opposite. Supply and demand.
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In a year, I think Shocks will be much more valuable than they are now. It is hard to tell which lands will appreciate faster in that amount of time though.
Fetches have never been higher. It seems likely you will be trading a set of cards that has recently lost 70% of their value into a set that will be reprinted later and go through a similar cycle. Holding onto your shocks for a couple of years will give you better trading value from them.
I'd hold my shocks, and then trade a shock for 2 fetches when they are inevitably reprinted in a couple years. The only caveat here would be if you need the fetches for modern. In that case, I'd wait until after Theros drops, so that you get the most out of the shocks while they are still standard legal.
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You are aware that the Shocks will be around until the block after Theros comes out right?
I also have a prediction all time low for shocks will be just before shocks are about to rotate from standard.
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On the other hand, shocklands are pretty easy to trade for and replace right now if you do trade them. Much harder to trade for fetchies now.
I think he meant to say that if your stocks of Shocks are available for trade; then it is OK to trade. You need shocks to play a majority of Standard decks right now, thus letting them loose for exspensive fetches will just cause you buy more shocks to replace them. Might be better to trade extra shocks for fetches and add money for the deal.
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For the sake of this evaluation, let's assume you're trading Steam Vents into Scalding Tarn.
7 mid vs 38.5 mid. The ratio is roughly 1:5.5
OK. Let's first go the crazy route. Let's assume that post rotation, UWR becomes god-tier in Standard (not Caw-Blade, more like Delver) and Steam Vents hits $20. At the same time, Modern picks up huge amounts of steam and during Modern season Scalding Tarn hits $60.
The Scalding Tarn guy gained $21.5. The Steam Vents guy gained 5.5 x $13 = $71.5. Wowza.
But that's rather imaginative. To be more realistic, we need to find the break even point. Let's set Steam Vents to a constant $50 during Modern season. That's easily imaginable, even by conservative standards. So then the Scalding Tarn guy gains $11.5. Cool beans.
11.5/5.5 = 2.1
So, in order to match the Scalding Tarn's growth, Steam Vents has to grow about $2. Now, I don't know about you, but when I think about Standard lands post rotation, I think big prices. Woodland Cemetery was a $17 card at one point and I remember trading for it at $3 during SOM-INN. Think about how much better Overgrown Tomb is than Woodland Cemetery. It's quite easy to imagine Steam Vents rising to $9, if not much, much more.
Now, to reverse the calculations. Let's assume that Steam Vents gains to a relatively tame value of $14, doubling in price. $7 x 5.5 = 38.5. In order to match the gain of the trader with the Steam Vents, the Scalding Tarn will have to rise to $77! While not impossible, I cannot imagine Wizards not reprinting fetches immediately in response.
I admit, the cards I used were the outliers. Steam Vents is criminally undervalued and Scalding Tarn is overvalued. Still, the principle is the same. Because shocklands have the near guarantee of rising and the potential to explode, trading multiple shocks towards a single fetch could prove rather disastrous, even if the fetch explodes, simply because it's just one card.
We are also completely aware of the trajectory of the shocklands. They're not going to be reprinted anytime soon. They'll rise post INN rotation, take a hit after RTR rotation and slowly climb back up. On the other hand, fetches are due for a reprint at some point in the future, possibly even in the block past Theros and a heavy reprint in Standard could crash the market, especially if the art stays the same.
Multiplayer Decks- Memnarch - Animar, Soul of Elements - Zur, the Enchanter - Atraxa, Praetors' Voice - Food Chain Tazri - Teysa Karlov
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Thank you Xenphire for the signature!
You're both talking about this like it's a game. Which is of course extremely valid, but that's why I said I was approaching it from a purely financial aspect where there's no such thing as "extra" and no need to "replace" anything. In that case, you've gotta trade fetches for shocks all day.
If you need some fetches, awesome, trade those shocklands away! But don't be surprised when the overall value of your fetch is lower 6 months from now.
A game?
I don't see a price drop since everyone wants 4 of each. As long as there is no reprint, there will be no price drops.
Multiplayer Decks- Memnarch - Animar, Soul of Elements - Zur, the Enchanter - Atraxa, Praetors' Voice - Food Chain Tazri - Teysa Karlov
Modern BUMill and Bant Spirits.
Thank you Xenphire for the signature!
True, however shocks are better investments than fetches at the moment because fetches aren't really going to rise more than the shocks will rise come theros. They may rise more come modern PTQ season, but the plan should be this:
Trade fetches for lots of shocklands now. When innistrad rotates and the only good dual lands are shocklands + some new set of lands that will probably be worse than shocklands from M14 maybe or theros itself, the shocks double in value. You then trade the shocklands back for zendikar fetches at roughly the same value they're at right now. Come modern PTQ season the zendikar fetches jump in value due to players needing them for modern.
TL;DR - Buy low sell high or in this case trade for the underpriced cards that go up then rinse and repeat.
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There are mega crap load of shocks in the market and still growing. Fetches lands are not growing in stocks. Why would shock lands grow anymore if the demand is being met with production? Fetch lands will take a while to be reprinted if they are at all. We cannot assume fetch lands will be reprinted. I can trade shock lands for fetches and rebuy or pack the rest easy, but not the other way around. Why not just buy the fetch lands slowly through strict monthly budgeting? trading your stocks of shock lands for Fetches seems greedy. Will Shock lands go up in price? Yes and No. Yes for when grand prix's and other events occur and no after or during winning deck inactivity.
Multiplayer Decks- Memnarch - Animar, Soul of Elements - Zur, the Enchanter - Atraxa, Praetors' Voice - Food Chain Tazri - Teysa Karlov
Modern BUMill and Bant Spirits.
Thank you Xenphire for the signature!
Reprinting of the Zendikar fetches is a matter of "when", not "if". Wizard will not allow such highly priced staples especially it is multiples in almost every modern deck.
I speculate that it won't be reprinted while shocks are legal in standard, as it will create a rather powerful mana base for all decks but who knows...
Are we talking OG shocks, or the RTR block reprints? I ask because there's a significant difference of around 40% (~$10 for reprints, while the old school shocks are around ~$17 [higher if containing blue]).
We cannot say that Wizards will reprint fetch lands cause the "friendly" fetches have not seen reprint in LLLOOONNNGGG time. Wizards does not care about pricing, but selling product. A reprint would be nice, but to auto assume a reprint of anything for the sake of being a right is a logical fallacy.
Do I hope a reprint will occur for both? You bet your ass I do!
Multiplayer Decks- Memnarch - Animar, Soul of Elements - Zur, the Enchanter - Atraxa, Praetors' Voice - Food Chain Tazri - Teysa Karlov
Modern BUMill and Bant Spirits.
Thank you Xenphire for the signature!
The whole point is demand will not be met by supply as soon as the new season rolls around. People are going to stop drafting shocks and in conjunction the player will simultaneously increase. What we are currently witnessing is their floor, the worst possible environment for them from a financial perspective.
Bread Connoisseur is spot on with his game plan. Playing the formats (and understanding the cycles) is extremely important.
Wizard will print fetches not because it hasn't been printed in a long time, but because they want to promote Modern That's the reason we're seeing shocks reprinted, Modern Masters and a bunch of other good Modern cards reprinted all at once. Fetches are a staple of Modern and I do believe Wizard will reprint them sooner than later due to their prohibitive prices and availability now.
And similarly I do hope they reprint it in the next block after Theros
I would bet my entire collection that zendikar fetchlands will be reprinted at some point in a standard legal set or in a modern masters set. Before modern came into existence I wouldn't have been sure if fetchlands would be reprinted. With modern in the picture there is zero doubt in my mind that fetchlands WILL be reprinted some day. I doubt that will happen in theros as shocks+fetches is far too powerful of fixing for standard, I know I would sling 5 color control every single day of the week with fetches and shocks in the same standard environment.
The zendikar fetches are high at the moment. The shocklands are at their lowest price tag currently. No dual lands in the core set only makes my argument more valid, as shocklands will be used even more with less dual lands in the environment since shocklands will likely be the best manafixing available post rotation with no M10 duals in the environment and depending on what theros gives us for dual lands. You usually want to buy cards that are in print currently/at their lowest as when they're out of print and the supply dries up then their prices go up. It happens every single year. Look at liliana of the veil. She could be had for ~$15 while innistrad was in print a year ago. No look where she peaked. Oh that's right, she went up by 35 dollars. Same happened with restoration angel. Release weekend restoration angel could be had for around 7 a pop and angel peaked at more than double that. Shocklands are primed to jump come theros launch and states a few weeks after that.
I would snap trade zendikar fetches for original ravnica shocks 3 to 1 no matter what shocks they were and assuming they were in NM condition. There's almost no downside to that.
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