Earlier today, a single non-foil Grove of the Burnwillows went for $17.50 on eBay, and a playset went for $64. Yikes. Is Punishing Fire really that good, or are people running Kavu Predator in Zoo or something?
Earlier today, a single non-foil Grove of the Burnwillows went for $17.50 on eBay, and a playset went for $64. Yikes. Is Punishing Fire really that good, or are people running Kavu Predator in Zoo or something?
It's not that good. It doesn't kill nacatl, KoTR, Goyf, or anything that matters.
I personally would say people should hold off on getting grove for the time being.
I can only see it going down from here, I mean at 17 bucks, the only real reason it seems to be that high is punishing fire, which... we'll have to wait and see if that pans out. Personally, I don't think it will.
If Grove of the Burnwillows is going for $17, I'm a seller in that market. There's no way Punishing Fire is that good. All it tells me is that A) Modern is probably over-hyped a little bit right now, and B) the banned list has totally skewed the metagame. If you've stockpiled Groves, now's the time to cash in.
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WoTC, thank you for finally announcing the Modern format, an eternal format where everyone can participate.
The problem is that most zoo creatures end up with 3 toughness, meaning you need to spend 4 mana, and give them a life to kill a creature with that combo... although the combo was a house against faeries.
Yeah there's absolutely no way it'll maintain that price tag unless punishing fire somehow managed to be top dog. As said already though it doesn't kill big threats so it doesn't look like it may pan out. If I had some i would be selling them immediately. There's no way they can go up beyond this.
Even though Hypergenesis is banned, I feel like Cascade decks will be huge in this format. A lot of the top decks appear to be reliant on resources gained, and many don't have too much to fall back on. With the opening 7 being so important and the lack of the "glue cards" Legacy had (FoW, Daze, MM), could Restore Balance manage to command a high price?
Also, I'm going to have to call it on Disrupting Shoal now. It's going to go up in price, as it may be the premier anti-combo card in the format.
I'd also say to watch Isochron Scepter, Jace Beleren, Mindbreak Trap (If Storm or Pyromancer's ever make big appearances), and Ghostly Prison. These all seem like strong cards for control that you guys are yet to mention. Finally, are cards from Commander legal in Modern? If so, what are some cards like Edric going to command?
Even though Hypergenesis is banned, I feel like Cascade decks will be huge in this format. A lot of the top decks appear to be reliant on resources gained, and many don't have too much to fall back on. With the opening 7 being so important and the lack of the "glue cards" Legacy had (FoW, Daze, MM), could Restore Balance manage to command a high price?
Also, I'm going to have to call it on Disrupting Shoal now. It's going to go up in price, as it may be the premier anti-combo card in the format.
I'd also say to watch Isochron Scepter, Jace Beleren, Mindbreak Trap (If Storm or Pyromancer's ever make big appearances), and Ghostly Prison. These all seem like strong cards for control that you guys are yet to mention. Finally, are cards from Commander legal in Modern? If so, what are some cards like Edric going to command?
Wow. I'm affraid I can't agree with almost anything you assert here. There are many better things to cascade into like Living End,Boom/Bust, Research/Development, or Blightning. There's plenty of times when you're not going to want to cascade into Balance.
Disrupting Shoal is one of the most disapointing cards in Magic history. It has all the promise of Force of Will but Delivers like Chimney Imp. It's just too chancey to rely on having a blue card with just the right casting cost to stop something important when it counts. Not to mention it's tough to hard cast. It just won't live up to your expectations.
I don't see Scepter being all that great either. Pithing Needle and Phyrexian Revoker shut it off easily. Not to mention there's going to be plenty of artifact hate running around b/c of Affinity.
Jace Beleren has had tons of printings. His prices aren't going anywhere.
Mindbreak Trap is scarcely used in Vintage and Legacy where there are all kinds of Storm decks. It won't be used in Modern either for that. Now, there is one caveat. Mindbreak trap can deal with spells like Emrakul, The Aeons Torn, Volcanic Fallout, and Punishing Fire. So if people see it as the only answer to those cards, then it has a shot. But it'll be a sideboard only card. It won't be worth a ton.
Gostly Prison is a good card and could see play. Again in the sideboard. It will get played, but I doubt it will skyrocket. Ensnaring Bridge is legal in Modern, and it serves a similar purpose.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
WoTC, thank you for finally announcing the Modern format, an eternal format where everyone can participate.
Even though Hypergenesis is banned, I feel like Cascade decks will be huge in this format. A lot of the top decks appear to be reliant on resources gained, and many don't have too much to fall back on. With the opening 7 being so important and the lack of the "glue cards" Legacy had (FoW, Daze, MM), could Restore Balance manage to command a high price?
Also, I'm going to have to call it on Disrupting Shoal now. It's going to go up in price, as it may be the premier anti-combo card in the format.
I'd also say to watch Isochron Scepter, Jace Beleren, Mindbreak Trap (If Storm or Pyromancer's ever make big appearances), and Ghostly Prison. These all seem like strong cards for control that you guys are yet to mention. Finally, are cards from Commander legal in Modern? If so, what are some cards like Edric going to command?
The new cards from the commader sets will not be legal in modern.
" Also, when we make ancillary products like Magic: The Gathering Commander, we want them to be the best they can be. If every card in those products were legalized in Modern, Development would need the ability to either veto or ban cards that those products wanted but that didn't fit into Modern. That would get messy, and we chose not to open that possibility.
Although we would still print cards that aren't legal in Modern in new frames in ancillary products, those cards would not become legal in Modern unless they also printed in a later booster release."
The new cards from the commader sets will not be legal in modern.
" Also, when we make ancillary products like Magic: The Gathering Commander, we want them to be the best they can be. If every card in those products were legalized in Modern, Development would need the ability to either veto or ban cards that those products wanted but that didn't fit into Modern. That would get messy, and we chose not to open that possibility.
Although we would still print cards that aren't legal in Modern in new frames in ancillary products, those cards would not become legal in Modern unless they also printed in a later booster release."
I think people forgot that the reason Punishing Grove was good was because it nuked Fairies. And WOTC ensured that Fairies probably won't be great with the bannings.
EDIT: Pact of Negation OMFG. I saw it had been steadily going up because of (presumably) Hive Mind, but it's ridiculous now. I traded one away and traded for one at 8 each last night and thought it was fair, because I was seeing them for $6-12 on eBay.
I think Ranger of Eos will be big if Boros becomes viable, but I don't see a Boros deck being much better than a Zoo deck (Goyf...KOTR...Hierarch...yay), especially when it's that much weaker to Punishing Grove.
EDIT: Pact of Negation OMFG. I saw it had been steadily going up because of (presumably) Hive Mind, but it's ridiculous now. I traded one away and traded for one at 8 each last night and thought it was fair, because I was seeing them for $6-12 on eBay.
Pact of Negation comes in high when you click this link, but if you look at completed listings on ebay the sky is not falling quite as fast. $10.00 will get you copies of the card, which is up from where it's been... but still not insanely priced yet.
I agree as I've seen them for 7-10 bucks depending on condition around here, the card has gained some use but nothing like its processor, note the one I grabbed for my EDH deck costs me 7.50 Ex+ no less then a week ago.
Pact of Negation comes in high when you click this link, but if you look at completed listings on ebay the sky is not falling quite as fast. $10.00 will get you copies of the card, which is up from where it's been... but still not insanely priced yet.
Pact of Negation comes in high when you click this link, but if you look at completed listings on ebay the sky is not falling quite as fast. $10.00 will get you copies of the card, which is up from where it's been... but still not insanely priced yet.
True, but I was saying that the pricing increase at vendors is usually indicative of actually rising prices (hello there, Vendilion Clique and Grove of the Burnwillows). Neither has consistently hit vendor prices, but they're already on the way.
I seem to recall Grove of the Burnwillows being $15-20 right after Pro Tour: Austin (when Kibler displayed the power of the combo in zoo). I'm fairly certain that's the ceiling of the card.
True, but I was saying that the pricing increase at vendors is usually indicative of actually rising prices (hello there, Vendilion Clique and Grove of the Burnwillows). Neither has consistently hit vendor prices, but they're already on the way.
This can certainly be true. Ive noticed an increasing trend lately where people will come into the shop I sell at, and I quote them the current (though clearly recently massively increased) price on a card, and they will get irritated and mention that such and such site has it listed for a lesser amount, so I go to the site and, sure, they have it at that price, but they are sold out. I feel for those people who missed the boat or waited to long, but I think more and more people are beginning to understand just how quickly spikes in price can occur.
More-on-topic however, is how people looking to sell cards on a spike or for that matter, sell older cards. In both cases online store prices are often anywhere from a little higher to significantly higher than the actual selling value of the card. Ebay buy it nows can often also be incorrect in the same way, due to people trying to figure out what the cards will end up at, or for older cards, trying to get a premium or what they "think" the cards are worth. I often have to explain to people that ebay completed listings will show the most accurate information for what people are actually paying for cards, especially when a card spikes in value suddenly.
Pricing such cards on the selling end can also be a nightmare when there are no ebay buy it nows available, online store copies available, and its hard to tell what the price could end up at. Trying to find the right price in such situations that doesnt get me viewed as trying to rip someone off, or unintentionally having me leaving money on the table when I realize a day or two later than the card is actually much higher than even I thought it was going to go, can be very frustrating.
For me, these forums are invaluable as I can help inform others of price spikes I notice as well as get informed of others by the many other helpful people here :).
I honestly don't think it's reasonable to price any of the cards we're currently discussing. Grove/Clique/Pact are stillKINDOF going for their pre-spike values for the few buyers/sellers who haven't realized it yet, but there are also plenty of massively inflated sales along the lines of the vendor prices. It seems like a lot more time needs to pass before anything really stabilizes and before something like, "Grove of the Burnwillows is a $12 card," though obviously as people become more in tune with changes, things will take less and less time to settle.
EDIT: DTC, Channel Fireball is buying Clique for $20 cash/$26 credit.
This can certainly be true. Ive noticed an increasing trend lately where people will come into the shop I sell at, and I quote them the current (though clearly recently massively increased) price on a card, and they will get irritated and mention that such and such site has it listed for a lesser amount, so I go to the site and, sure, they have it at that price, but they are sold out. I feel for those people who missed the boat or waited to long, but I think more and more people are beginning to understand just how quickly spikes in price can occur.
More-on-topic however, is how people looking to sell cards on a spike or for that matter, sell older cards. In both cases online store prices are often anywhere from a little higher to significantly higher than the actual selling value of the card. Ebay buy it nows can often also be incorrect in the same way, due to people trying to figure out what the cards will end up at, or for older cards, trying to get a premium or what they "think" the cards are worth. I often have to explain to people that ebay completed listings will show the most accurate information for what people are actually paying for cards, especially when a card spikes in value suddenly.
Pricing such cards on the selling end can also be a nightmare when there are no ebay buy it nows available, online store copies available, and its hard to tell what the price could end up at. Trying to find the right price in such situations that doesnt get me viewed as trying to rip someone off, or unintentionally having me leaving money on the table when I realize a day or two later than the card is actually much higher than even I thought it was going to go, can be very frustrating.
For me, these forums are invaluable as I can help inform others of price spikes I notice as well as get informed of others by the many other helpful people here :).
It's an interesting conundrum. I had some offers for my vendilion cliques when the price was at the $15 mark during an overnight spark. I felt it would go higher and put them at $20 figuring i could safely get new ones at that. The person thought I was ridiculous. The only retail copies on tcgplayer are now 35. Guess my price was actually pretty "low" but i'm also glad they declined as I would hate to trade 35 in cards or even close to that to get them back, regardless what i was trading them for.
With the Pacts i've been in the market for them ever since I noticed they disappeared from tcgplayer a week or so ago, but without accurate info up until today from retail (which is how i price stuff i trade/trade for) it's been hard to figure out what to put them at if i get the conversation:
"how much do you want on the pacts?"
"uhh...what do you think is fair?"
Personally I had no idea. Ebay's price is all over the place, and I don't want to lowball what I thought they were worth and have the person think I was trying to shark them in a trade. To be safe I went to motl, where they're $8, but if someone's a retail trader we're seeing a $12 difference.
With the most recent spikes though i'm trying to move the "settling ones" at their current prices for solid legacy stuff. $35 for clique seems way too high, especially when stores are still not buying them for more than $15. At that buy price I think $20-25 might be more realistic once the hype dies down.
Now that grove seems to be getting high, i guess it won't drop back to $4 any time soon. Unless the punishing grove zoo variant makes a ton of appearances at the pro tour I can see it hitting between the $5-10 range like Horizon Canopy still (for some reason) is. The shocks that are unpopular might also drop down once we realize what colors are popular. I'm feeling all the blue shocks will stay high, and for non-blue we'll see Godless Shrine, Temple Garden, and maybe Stomping Ground remain the higher of the 6 nonblue, with Overgrown Tomb, Blood Crypt, and Sacred Foundry being most likely to go back down.
Stores are buying Vendilion Clique for 20. Just saying.
Last night I scoured the internet for 3 hours trying to find some last remaining Grove of the Burnwillows. Found some for 2.50, ended up paying 8.50 for 2 shipped (thats all they had). Got an email today saying I got a refund. I'm pretty pissed off about it. Guess they saw the spike and decided not to sell them to me. Can I file a dispute with paypal about this? Their reasoning was:
"Here is your payment refund as the Shuffle Up Games website is not currently available for business. My apologies but thank you for looking!"
Even though on the main page it says:
"New store under development.
Still working on updating/adding inventory, editing appearance, and layout - but ordering is functional."
I have a screen shot of their main page, the order confirmation, etc. Everything. Even if filing a dispute won't get me my cards, I'm so frustrated that I want to at least make them deal with this for a little while.
Another site, mtgcity, didn't raise their Clique prices when it spiked so I bought a playset for 60. Got an email last night saying it shipped so at least some people are honest.
*UPDATE* The guy emailed me and assured me that there website is indeed not functional. He claims to have sold all his stock a couple years ago. I asked him to change the wording on his home page so that this does not happen to anyone else. It now reads:
New store under development.
WEBSITE NOT IN OPERATION
DO NOT PLACE ORDER
Originally posted by Deimosfobos
BTW... what a silly question, I guess I should go to Ux control forum and ask: How come Mana Leak has a place in Ux control?
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Legacy: D+T
Oldschool: BW Deadguy BW
Magic player/collector since 1994
Proud supporter of #MtgForLife!
It's not that good. It doesn't kill nacatl, KoTR, Goyf, or anything that matters.
I can only see it going down from here, I mean at 17 bucks, the only real reason it seems to be that high is punishing fire, which... we'll have to wait and see if that pans out. Personally, I don't think it will.
UWBSharuum the HegemonBWU
UAzami, Lady of ScrollsU
UGMomir Vig, Simic VisionaryGU
GAzusa, Lost but SeekingG
GUEdric, Spymaster of TrestGU
Also, I'm going to have to call it on Disrupting Shoal now. It's going to go up in price, as it may be the premier anti-combo card in the format.
I'd also say to watch Isochron Scepter, Jace Beleren, Mindbreak Trap (If Storm or Pyromancer's ever make big appearances), and Ghostly Prison. These all seem like strong cards for control that you guys are yet to mention. Finally, are cards from Commander legal in Modern? If so, what are some cards like Edric going to command?
I am petitioning to get players to stop complaining about mythic rarity. Sig this to join the cause.
Wow. I'm affraid I can't agree with almost anything you assert here. There are many better things to cascade into like Living End, Boom/Bust, Research/Development, or Blightning. There's plenty of times when you're not going to want to cascade into Balance.
Disrupting Shoal is one of the most disapointing cards in Magic history. It has all the promise of Force of Will but Delivers like Chimney Imp. It's just too chancey to rely on having a blue card with just the right casting cost to stop something important when it counts. Not to mention it's tough to hard cast. It just won't live up to your expectations.
I don't see Scepter being all that great either. Pithing Needle and Phyrexian Revoker shut it off easily. Not to mention there's going to be plenty of artifact hate running around b/c of Affinity.
Jace Beleren has had tons of printings. His prices aren't going anywhere.
Mindbreak Trap is scarcely used in Vintage and Legacy where there are all kinds of Storm decks. It won't be used in Modern either for that. Now, there is one caveat. Mindbreak trap can deal with spells like Emrakul, The Aeons Torn, Volcanic Fallout, and Punishing Fire. So if people see it as the only answer to those cards, then it has a shot. But it'll be a sideboard only card. It won't be worth a ton.
Gostly Prison is a good card and could see play. Again in the sideboard. It will get played, but I doubt it will skyrocket. Ensnaring Bridge is legal in Modern, and it serves a similar purpose.
The new cards from the commader sets will not be legal in modern.
" Also, when we make ancillary products like Magic: The Gathering Commander, we want them to be the best they can be. If every card in those products were legalized in Modern, Development would need the ability to either veto or ban cards that those products wanted but that didn't fit into Modern. That would get messy, and we chose not to open that possibility.
Although we would still print cards that aren't legal in Modern in new frames in ancillary products, those cards would not become legal in Modern unless they also printed in a later booster release."
http://www.wizards.com/magic/magazine/article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/ld/144
Basically they didn't want Sol Ring in Modern. Seems reasonable enough.
EDIT: Pact of Negation OMFG. I saw it had been steadily going up because of (presumably) Hive Mind, but it's ridiculous now. I traded one away and traded for one at 8 each last night and thought it was fair, because I was seeing them for $6-12 on eBay.
I think Ranger of Eos will be big if Boros becomes viable, but I don't see a Boros deck being much better than a Zoo deck (Goyf...KOTR...Hierarch...yay), especially when it's that much weaker to Punishing Grove.
Lands WUBG
EDH:
Doran WBG
Pact of Negation comes in high when you click this link, but if you look at completed listings on ebay the sky is not falling quite as fast. $10.00 will get you copies of the card, which is up from where it's been... but still not insanely priced yet.
WUBRGPauper Battle BoxWUBRG ... and why I am not a fan of Wayne Reynolds' Illustrations.
S.M.
True, but I was saying that the pricing increase at vendors is usually indicative of actually rising prices (hello there, Vendilion Clique and Grove of the Burnwillows). Neither has consistently hit vendor prices, but they're already on the way.
Lands WUBG
EDH:
Doran WBG
This can certainly be true. Ive noticed an increasing trend lately where people will come into the shop I sell at, and I quote them the current (though clearly recently massively increased) price on a card, and they will get irritated and mention that such and such site has it listed for a lesser amount, so I go to the site and, sure, they have it at that price, but they are sold out. I feel for those people who missed the boat or waited to long, but I think more and more people are beginning to understand just how quickly spikes in price can occur.
More-on-topic however, is how people looking to sell cards on a spike or for that matter, sell older cards. In both cases online store prices are often anywhere from a little higher to significantly higher than the actual selling value of the card. Ebay buy it nows can often also be incorrect in the same way, due to people trying to figure out what the cards will end up at, or for older cards, trying to get a premium or what they "think" the cards are worth. I often have to explain to people that ebay completed listings will show the most accurate information for what people are actually paying for cards, especially when a card spikes in value suddenly.
Pricing such cards on the selling end can also be a nightmare when there are no ebay buy it nows available, online store copies available, and its hard to tell what the price could end up at. Trying to find the right price in such situations that doesnt get me viewed as trying to rip someone off, or unintentionally having me leaving money on the table when I realize a day or two later than the card is actually much higher than even I thought it was going to go, can be very frustrating.
For me, these forums are invaluable as I can help inform others of price spikes I notice as well as get informed of others by the many other helpful people here :).
EDIT: DTC, Channel Fireball is buying Clique for $20 cash/$26 credit.
Lands WUBG
EDH:
Doran WBG
It's an interesting conundrum. I had some offers for my vendilion cliques when the price was at the $15 mark during an overnight spark. I felt it would go higher and put them at $20 figuring i could safely get new ones at that. The person thought I was ridiculous. The only retail copies on tcgplayer are now 35. Guess my price was actually pretty "low" but i'm also glad they declined as I would hate to trade 35 in cards or even close to that to get them back, regardless what i was trading them for.
With the Pacts i've been in the market for them ever since I noticed they disappeared from tcgplayer a week or so ago, but without accurate info up until today from retail (which is how i price stuff i trade/trade for) it's been hard to figure out what to put them at if i get the conversation:
"how much do you want on the pacts?"
"uhh...what do you think is fair?"
Personally I had no idea. Ebay's price is all over the place, and I don't want to lowball what I thought they were worth and have the person think I was trying to shark them in a trade. To be safe I went to motl, where they're $8, but if someone's a retail trader we're seeing a $12 difference.
With the most recent spikes though i'm trying to move the "settling ones" at their current prices for solid legacy stuff. $35 for clique seems way too high, especially when stores are still not buying them for more than $15. At that buy price I think $20-25 might be more realistic once the hype dies down.
Now that grove seems to be getting high, i guess it won't drop back to $4 any time soon. Unless the punishing grove zoo variant makes a ton of appearances at the pro tour I can see it hitting between the $5-10 range like Horizon Canopy still (for some reason) is. The shocks that are unpopular might also drop down once we realize what colors are popular. I'm feeling all the blue shocks will stay high, and for non-blue we'll see Godless Shrine, Temple Garden, and maybe Stomping Ground remain the higher of the 6 nonblue, with Overgrown Tomb, Blood Crypt, and Sacred Foundry being most likely to go back down.
Last night I scoured the internet for 3 hours trying to find some last remaining Grove of the Burnwillows. Found some for 2.50, ended up paying 8.50 for 2 shipped (thats all they had). Got an email today saying I got a refund. I'm pretty pissed off about it. Guess they saw the spike and decided not to sell them to me. Can I file a dispute with paypal about this? Their reasoning was:
"Here is your payment refund as the Shuffle Up Games website is not currently available for business. My apologies but thank you for looking!"
Even though on the main page it says:
"New store under development.
Still working on updating/adding inventory, editing appearance, and layout - but ordering is functional."
I have a screen shot of their main page, the order confirmation, etc. Everything. Even if filing a dispute won't get me my cards, I'm so frustrated that I want to at least make them deal with this for a little while.
Another site, mtgcity, didn't raise their Clique prices when it spiked so I bought a playset for 60. Got an email last night saying it shipped so at least some people are honest.
*UPDATE* The guy emailed me and assured me that there website is indeed not functional. He claims to have sold all his stock a couple years ago. I asked him to change the wording on his home page so that this does not happen to anyone else. It now reads:
New store under development.
WEBSITE NOT IN OPERATION
DO NOT PLACE ORDER
MUCH better.