I'm like a broken record. For EU based readers, Foil Spell Pierce starts at 12 €. Playsets at 70 € (both english and german). If you are in a market for these or can unload at 50+$, there's a decent arbitage opportunity here. There's also a japanese playset of foils at 120 €.
These price gaps are getting so large that it feels like leaving money on a table rotting away. I should propably just buy these out, but propably leave it for somebody else.
Is it just me or... Everything seems inflated / most of the cards have had their spike already, at this point in time? I'm looking for proper «gainers» or investment target in modern right now, and beside a couple of cards (namely Snapcaster mage (mid-term) and Abrupt decay (short to mid-term)), nothing seems to have still a long way to go before reaching it's price ceiling. Sure there's the fetches, but they're reprinted (and I am actually looking for targets to trade my fetches for). Or are we just entering a new era in modern where good cards start at 20$ and cap at a 100$, double what it was one year back, and that's why my mind just can't conceive anything going further up?
Besides, what do you guys think of Tezzeret, agent of bolas? This is something I might put my money (fetches) on. So versatile. Starts to see competitive play in UBx control shells, backed by Ensnaring bridges. I know the build is solide, just needs a bit more fizzling. Then the results might come in. It also has already climbed from 8-10$ tp 20$ (SCG) in the last 6 months or so.
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MODERN Blue Lantern, UBx Tezzerator. OLD SCHOOL 93/94 «The Pain Train» Black Sligh, Esper «Machine Gun» Artifacts, Jund «Psycho» Ponza-Disko.
Is it just me or... Everything seems inflated / most of the cards have had their spike already, at this point in time? I'm looking for proper «gainers» or investment target in modern right now, and beside a couple of cards (namely Snapcaster mage (mid-term) and Abrupt decay (short to mid-term)), nothing seems to have still a long way to go before reaching it's price ceiling. Sure there's the fetches, but they're reprinted (and I am actually looking for targets to trade my fetches for). Or are we just entering a new era in modern where good cards start at 20$ and cap at a 100$, double what it was one year back, and that's why my mind just can't conceive anything going further up?
Besides, what do you guys think of Tezzeret, agent of bolas? This is something I might put my money (fetches) on. So versatile. Starts to see competitive play in UBx control shells, backed by Ensnaring bridges. I know the build is solide, just needs a bit more fizzling. Then the results might come in. It also has already climbed from 8-10$ tp 20$ (SCG) in the last 6 months or so.
It's not easy to speculate. You have to take chances. Some of the cards will be junk until a new card is printed that makes the old one better, than it's too late to buy it. You can diversify by having several playsets of all junk rares (especially mythics) that seem to be just not quite there. That would make you more likely to hit.
Tezzeret AoB draws, protects self and wins the game with an almost immediately available ultimate and costs 4 mana. Playing it and +1'ing also puts him out of bolt range. Ridiculously powerful planeswalker in the right shell, and will only improve as more artifacts are printed and enter the modern card pool.
I'd be looking at some of the lands that do see play yet haven't spiked yet, such as fast lands, innistrad check lands, the gate cycle... (definitely look at foils of them as well). Pod is very popular at the moment, but Chord of Calling hasn't budged from the spot it settled at during this time last year. $30 is a steep speculation for such a volatile format though. On the other hand, that means archetype-specific cards can double overnight if it does well (look at affinity), so I could see some movement in scapeshift pieces if it ever gets under the limelight again - lorwyn block cards are quite hot at the moment. If Fracturing Gust can spike to $10, a card that is actually played (prismatic omen) can go higher that that. Personally, I'd be looking at hording every copy of scavenging ooze I can find, especially since snapcaster is doing its thing.
Is it just me or... Everything seems inflated / most of the cards have had their spike already, at this point in time? I'm looking for proper «gainers» or investment target in modern right now, and beside a couple of cards (namely Snapcaster mage (mid-term) and Abrupt decay (short to mid-term)), nothing seems to have still a long way to go before reaching it's price ceiling. Sure there's the fetches, but they're reprinted (and I am actually looking for targets to trade my fetches for). Or are we just entering a new era in modern where good cards start at 20$ and cap at a 100$, double what it was one year back, and that's why my mind just can't conceive anything going further up?
It's the latter. There is no price ceiling as long as Magic's popularity continues to grow. The only thing that reduces the prices of Modern cards are reprints, bannings, and printings of new cards that outclass the old. Okay, so Standard cards that rotate go down if they're not as desirable in Modern, but then you probably don't want to play them in Modern, and sometimes cards fall out of disfavor due to the changing metagame, but those are minor compared to cards that gain value over time.
Snapcasters are steadily rising on Ebay. Playsets are seeing buys at $34-36 per card! These will probably steadily climb toward 70-80 over the next 6 months.
Never take financial advice from someone who says that something "has no price ceiling." I'd be careful about these new prices. Heck, I'd be careful about prices in Magic in general at the moment.
There is some portion of the potential buyers for Magic cards who want cards to play with them. These people range from kitchen table or EDH players to tournament spikes who need the new hotness right now. They all have different tolerances for how much they will spent on an individual card. I can't tell you what this is in general, but I suspect that the higher you jack up prices, the fewer buyers you have willing to pay the price. Just ol' supply and demand. I also suspect that $20.00 for individual good cards and $100 for fetch lands is pricing out huge chunks of the possible buying base. Poor HS and College kids ain't laying down that much for cards. Some of these buyers wax and wane. When there's a record-breaking Modern event, it's no shocker than prices can go up because there's a temporary flood of "gotta have it now" spikes buying stuff.
My concern is that the price on Magic cards (particularly Legacy staples, but now we're seeing it creep into Modern too) will continue to inflate even after just about all of the people who want cards to play with them are priced out of the market. As you lose people buying the cards because they want to own them on the lower end of the pool, you replace them with people who want to buy cards simply because they seem as a good investment on the higher end. It's not just "speculators." It's players who are willing to shell out a bajillion dollars because, at least in part, they figure it is a good investment. These folks are helping set the price of cards based in some part on the "greater fool" theory.
What makes me very cautious about Magic cards nowadays is that there's no way of telling how many buyers in the market are paying a premium based on the "greater fool" analysis, and what that premium is. To the extent you have a big chunk of the market buying cards at a certain price largely or only because they can be resold later, I think you're setting up a very, very vulnerable bubble. History is replete with examples of catastrophic crashes caused by a market that is inflated with investors and light on people who actually WANT the item. (Tulips in the Netherlands, Subprime mortgages, beanie babies). To the extent market price is based on investment potential alone, any shakeup in confidence will destroy the price.
So, what number of players are paying $100 for Misty Rainforest because that's how much they value the card in and of itself? What number are willing to pay that only because they figure they can sell out for that amount or even more? We don't know.
As for price ceilings, there is going to be one eventually. Either Wizards will (wisely) act to produce reprints in numbers that help deflate or contain price increases, or prices will increase until virtually all of the market is running on the "greater fool" theory alone. At that point, it'll only take a stiff breeze to destroy the game.
As for me, I'm planning to trade out of many of my Zenidkar fetches for eternal staples post haste. If you can trade a Zen fetch for an original dual land, why on Earth would you hesitate?
GP Richmond was the largest constructed GP of all-time and it was Modern. Those weren't speculators, those were tournament players. This isn't a speculation run )although those people are in on this), the spike is from players and the rise of Commander.
Like I said, UALives, it's no mystery that prices go up when you have a temporary flood of 4,000.00 "gotta have it now" spikes getting stuff. My worry is this: given that the surge in the buying market was temporary and based on that tournament, who is picking up the slack and buying the cards at those prices NOW?
I don't see how you can conclude it's not people who want to "invest," at least in significant numbers. That's a fragile way to run a market.
I've played this game for a long time - and I don't ever recall a true crash of major staple card prices.
Sure, ZEN fetches will tank when they get reprinted (but they're not worth 60$+ bucks, anyway) - but the only thing that'll massively crush the secondary market (IMHO) will be the inevitable massive influx of undetectable counterfeit cards.
I've played this game for a long time - and I don't ever recall a true crash of major staple card prices.
Sure, ZEN fetches will tank when they get reprinted (but they're not worth 60$+ bucks, anyway) - but the only thing that'll massively crush the secondary market (IMHO) will be the inevitable massive influx of undetectable counterfeit cards.
I remember the first time I read about counterfeits on this site, it seriously made me want to sell all my staples and call an end to my MTG habits, I can definitely see this factor wrecking the game, as it has already put quite a few people on edge. That stiff breeze mentioned by Maximumc could be right around the corner:(
All of my higher-end cards have significant playwear. Yeah, they ain't mint - but they were cheaper AND harder to fake.
EDIT: I Apologize for commenting off-topic. So here's my attempt to try and steer it back a little.
I live a little bit away from DC and I've got a LOT of card shops around me. I haven't seen any interest in Modern save for only two of those shops. Much of the feedback I get is the stereotype that Modern is too expensive for the average person to play. Clearly, the modern tournament deck will be too expensive for their tastes - so I think that it stands to reason that we might see some of the better uncommons to build some kind of sort-of-but-not optimal budget deck - where we might see a real interest in cards like rancor, young pyromancer and Dryad Militant. I'm watching them - but uncommons are usually not very lucrative to chase, right?
I've played this game for a long time - and I don't ever recall a true crash of major staple card prices.
Sure, ZEN fetches will tank when they get reprinted (but they're not worth 60$+ bucks, anyway) - but the only thing that'll massively crush the secondary market (IMHO) will be the inevitable massive influx of undetectable counterfeit cards.
I remember the first time I read about counterfeits on this site, it seriously made me want to sell all my staples and call an end to my MTG habits, I can definitely see this factor wrecking the game, as it has already put quite a few people on edge. That stiff breeze mentioned by Maximumc could be right around the corner:(
Magic: the Gathering, in my experience at least, is like three games in one:
1- the game of playing cards, be it casual or competitive;
2- the game of collecting, for Vorthosian reasons, deckbuilding for the fun and flavour of it, and such;
3- the game of value-management, magiconomy and speculating, acquiring gainers and unloading in time.
...Counterfeits really just wreck the third game #notstartingadebate
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Thats the realization I've come to also, and why I'm still here! There is another issue though if the second market collapses, and wizards no longer makes money, we'll have no where to play, nor new cards to play with:(
So, what number of players are paying $100 for Misty Rainforest because that's how much they value the card in and of itself? What number are willing to pay that only because they figure they can sell out for that amount or even more? We don't know.
Well, maybe Misty is just a bad example, but I would argue that the ONLY people willing to buy in at $100 are the ones that want/need them for play value. Speculation is ripe that fetchland reprints are coming sooner or later (I personally believe later, but that's neither here nor there). Who in their right mind would be shelling out $100 for this card as an investment? Legacy stuff, particularly cards on the reserved list like duals, are probably a better example for your theory.
Thats the realization I've come to also, and why I'm still here! There is another issue though if the second market collapses, and wizards no longer makes money, we'll have no where to play, nor new cards to play with:(
If the secondary market crashes, WotC will still make money. People will still buy booster boxes, event decks and whatnot. Many players will simply see their collection value crash. Even with half the player base Magic has, WotC will still make money. Otherwise they would have stopped printing cards 10 years ago.
Heck, if the secondary market crashes, loads of casual players will see their collections grow with previously unattainable cards and casual magic might even see a huge surge in popularity since now everyone can play with Snapcasters and powerful Planeswalkers.
This topic would have to be renamed to Modern Huge Crashers though
If the secondary market crashes, WOTC will definitely take a big hit. The reason that people are willing to buy boosters (whether it's me buying one pack on impulse, or SCG buying a hundred cases on set release) is that we believe that the cards inside will have value. If the cards in a pack have no value, then why should we pay all that money for boosters?
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If the secondary market crashes, WOTC will definitely take a big hit. The reason that people are willing to buy boosters (whether it's me buying one pack on impulse, or SCG buying a hundred cases on set release) is that we believe that the cards inside will have value. If the cards in a pack have no value, then why should we pay all that money for boosters?
That's not true. Some people who buy boosters do so to draft. Some do so for fun or to round out collections. Those looking to making a buck are only doing so at the *chance* of a pack having more value than they paid. Bosters have never been sold at the time where the average value of a booster is greater than the price of the booster, except for a while during Modern Masters.
If the secondary market crashes due to reprints, that doesn't effect the value of NEW cards, and powerful rares and mythics will still command high prices because they are rare and people will want to play them right away to win tournaments, not wait years until they are reprinted.
If the secondary market crashes, WOTC will definitely take a big hit. The reason that people are willing to buy boosters (whether it's me buying one pack on impulse, or SCG buying a hundred cases on set release) is that we believe that the cards inside will have value. If the cards in a pack have no value, then why should we pay all that money for boosters?
That's not true. Some people who buy boosters do so to draft. Some do so for fun or to round out collections. Those looking to making a buck are only doing so at the *chance* of a pack having more value than they paid. Bosters have never been sold at the time where the average value of a booster is greater than the price of the booster, except for a while during Modern Masters.
If the secondary market crashes due to reprints, that doesn't effect the value of NEW cards, and powerful rares and mythics will still command high prices because they are rare and people will want to play them right away to win tournaments, not wait years until they are reprinted.
Sorry, I think we're talking about two different things. I was replying to the secondary market crashing due to counterfeits, not reprints. They will have different effects on the market.
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All of my higher-end cards have significant playwear. Yeah, they ain't mint - but they were cheaper AND harder to fake.
EDIT: I Apologize for commenting off-topic. So here's my attempt to try and steer it back a little.
I live a little bit away from DC and I've got a LOT of card shops around me. I haven't seen any interest in Modern save for only two of those shops. Much of the feedback I get is the stereotype that Modern is too expensive for the average person to play. Clearly, the modern tournament deck will be too expensive for their tastes - so I think that it stands to reason that we might see some of the better uncommons to build some kind of sort-of-but-not optimal budget deck - where we might see a real interest in cards like rancor, young pyromancer and Dryad Militant. I'm watching them - but uncommons are usually not very lucrative to chase, right?
DC was one of the places with a large Legacy scene. That's why Modern's been slow to take off in the area.
These price gaps are getting so large that it feels like leaving money on a table rotting away. I should propably just buy these out, but propably leave it for somebody else.
Set to default
Besides, what do you guys think of Tezzeret, agent of bolas? This is something I might put my money (fetches) on. So versatile. Starts to see competitive play in UBx control shells, backed by Ensnaring bridges. I know the build is solide, just needs a bit more fizzling. Then the results might come in. It also has already climbed from 8-10$ tp 20$ (SCG) in the last 6 months or so.
OLD SCHOOL 93/94 «The Pain Train» Black Sligh, Esper «Machine Gun» Artifacts, Jund «Psycho» Ponza-Disko.
It's not easy to speculate. You have to take chances. Some of the cards will be junk until a new card is printed that makes the old one better, than it's too late to buy it. You can diversify by having several playsets of all junk rares (especially mythics) that seem to be just not quite there. That would make you more likely to hit.
It's the latter. There is no price ceiling as long as Magic's popularity continues to grow. The only thing that reduces the prices of Modern cards are reprints, bannings, and printings of new cards that outclass the old. Okay, so Standard cards that rotate go down if they're not as desirable in Modern, but then you probably don't want to play them in Modern, and sometimes cards fall out of disfavor due to the changing metagame, but those are minor compared to cards that gain value over time.
There is some portion of the potential buyers for Magic cards who want cards to play with them. These people range from kitchen table or EDH players to tournament spikes who need the new hotness right now. They all have different tolerances for how much they will spent on an individual card. I can't tell you what this is in general, but I suspect that the higher you jack up prices, the fewer buyers you have willing to pay the price. Just ol' supply and demand. I also suspect that $20.00 for individual good cards and $100 for fetch lands is pricing out huge chunks of the possible buying base. Poor HS and College kids ain't laying down that much for cards. Some of these buyers wax and wane. When there's a record-breaking Modern event, it's no shocker than prices can go up because there's a temporary flood of "gotta have it now" spikes buying stuff.
My concern is that the price on Magic cards (particularly Legacy staples, but now we're seeing it creep into Modern too) will continue to inflate even after just about all of the people who want cards to play with them are priced out of the market. As you lose people buying the cards because they want to own them on the lower end of the pool, you replace them with people who want to buy cards simply because they seem as a good investment on the higher end. It's not just "speculators." It's players who are willing to shell out a bajillion dollars because, at least in part, they figure it is a good investment. These folks are helping set the price of cards based in some part on the "greater fool" theory.
What makes me very cautious about Magic cards nowadays is that there's no way of telling how many buyers in the market are paying a premium based on the "greater fool" analysis, and what that premium is. To the extent you have a big chunk of the market buying cards at a certain price largely or only because they can be resold later, I think you're setting up a very, very vulnerable bubble. History is replete with examples of catastrophic crashes caused by a market that is inflated with investors and light on people who actually WANT the item. (Tulips in the Netherlands, Subprime mortgages, beanie babies). To the extent market price is based on investment potential alone, any shakeup in confidence will destroy the price.
So, what number of players are paying $100 for Misty Rainforest because that's how much they value the card in and of itself? What number are willing to pay that only because they figure they can sell out for that amount or even more? We don't know.
As for price ceilings, there is going to be one eventually. Either Wizards will (wisely) act to produce reprints in numbers that help deflate or contain price increases, or prices will increase until virtually all of the market is running on the "greater fool" theory alone. At that point, it'll only take a stiff breeze to destroy the game.
As for me, I'm planning to trade out of many of my Zenidkar fetches for eternal staples post haste. If you can trade a Zen fetch for an original dual land, why on Earth would you hesitate?
I don't see how you can conclude it's not people who want to "invest," at least in significant numbers. That's a fragile way to run a market.
Sure, ZEN fetches will tank when they get reprinted (but they're not worth 60$+ bucks, anyway) - but the only thing that'll massively crush the secondary market (IMHO) will be the inevitable massive influx of undetectable counterfeit cards.
I remember the first time I read about counterfeits on this site, it seriously made me want to sell all my staples and call an end to my MTG habits, I can definitely see this factor wrecking the game, as it has already put quite a few people on edge. That stiff breeze mentioned by Maximumc could be right around the corner:(
RIP Karn EDH
EDIT: I Apologize for commenting off-topic. So here's my attempt to try and steer it back a little.
I live a little bit away from DC and I've got a LOT of card shops around me. I haven't seen any interest in Modern save for only two of those shops. Much of the feedback I get is the stereotype that Modern is too expensive for the average person to play. Clearly, the modern tournament deck will be too expensive for their tastes - so I think that it stands to reason that we might see some of the better uncommons to build some kind of sort-of-but-not optimal budget deck - where we might see a real interest in cards like rancor, young pyromancer and Dryad Militant. I'm watching them - but uncommons are usually not very lucrative to chase, right?
Magic: the Gathering, in my experience at least, is like three games in one:
1- the game of playing cards, be it casual or competitive;
2- the game of collecting, for Vorthosian reasons, deckbuilding for the fun and flavour of it, and such;
3- the game of value-management, magiconomy and speculating, acquiring gainers and unloading in time.
...Counterfeits really just wreck the third game
OLD SCHOOL 93/94 «The Pain Train» Black Sligh, Esper «Machine Gun» Artifacts, Jund «Psycho» Ponza-Disko.
RIP Karn EDH
Well, maybe Misty is just a bad example, but I would argue that the ONLY people willing to buy in at $100 are the ones that want/need them for play value. Speculation is ripe that fetchland reprints are coming sooner or later (I personally believe later, but that's neither here nor there). Who in their right mind would be shelling out $100 for this card as an investment? Legacy stuff, particularly cards on the reserved list like duals, are probably a better example for your theory.
Legacy:
Oldschool: BW Deadguy BW
Magic player/collector since 1994
Proud supporter of #MtgForLife!
If the secondary market crashes, WOTC will definitely take a big hit. The reason that people are willing to buy boosters (whether it's me buying one pack on impulse, or SCG buying a hundred cases on set release) is that we believe that the cards inside will have value. If the cards in a pack have no value, then why should we pay all that money for boosters?
That's not true. Some people who buy boosters do so to draft. Some do so for fun or to round out collections. Those looking to making a buck are only doing so at the *chance* of a pack having more value than they paid. Bosters have never been sold at the time where the average value of a booster is greater than the price of the booster, except for a while during Modern Masters.
If the secondary market crashes due to reprints, that doesn't effect the value of NEW cards, and powerful rares and mythics will still command high prices because they are rare and people will want to play them right away to win tournaments, not wait years until they are reprinted.
Sorry, I think we're talking about two different things. I was replying to the secondary market crashing due to counterfeits, not reprints. They will have different effects on the market.
DC was one of the places with a large Legacy scene. That's why Modern's been slow to take off in the area.
Current post- Grand Prix KC Modern Postmortem (7/7/13)