It's not a bubble, exactly, because part of what is driving the prices up is the opportunity for arbitrage with Modern cards. So the price is being supported by the notion that a Sea should be worth 5-10x what a Noble Hierarch is worth (to use an example).
I have heard vague rumors of a moustache-dispensing vending machine in a distant laundromat, across the street from a tattoo parlor. However, this information is shaky, and time is of the essence.
If everyone was to actually hold onto these duals and staples like the people in this thread claim to be doing, Legacy will be on the way out. SCG won't back a format where they have no cards to sell to the players of the format they are propping up. If duals become that scarce, all the other Legacy staples will skyrocket as well. There will be no availability.
wrong. if legacy is dead as you say because people hoard duals, then when the tournament scene is dead, people will liquidate their cards. An equilibrium price will then be met somewhere down the line with demand decreasing and supply slowly increasing due to people cashing out.
Yup! Just like vintage, which we all know is as healthy as ever. /s
Vintage doesn't have a multi-thousand dollar dollar weekly tournament circuit attached to it.
Vintage used to be a healthy and vibrant format until price and availability issues pushed people out. It had prize support too. I was commenting that people didn't simply sell off their power to have a happy medium for tournament players and availability. Prices will eventually push people out if the game keeps growing and people refuse to sell their duals, as many will.
Cataclysm is all but sold out on Ebay...I believe this powerhouse Death & Taxes equalizer (against aggro for those that don't know how to use it) is just starting to see its time, they're after all hard as hell to obtain in most shops and binders so it may be just a pure given.
This is just the start perhaps? (rhetorical),
S.M.
Cataclysm is all but sold out on Ebay...I believe this powerhouse Death & Taxes equalizer (against aggro for those that don't know how to use it) is just starting to see its time, they're after all hard as hell to obtain in most shops and binders so it may be just a pure given.
This is just the start perhaps? (rhetorical),
S.M.
Maybe. It has seen a $6 jump since the beginning of the year. At 4CMC and the ability to possibly give an opponent choices is questionable.
Testing will prove whether or not it is worth it... but it just seems like another 4CMC wipe. There are better things to do with those resources. SB maybe... but against what will get you value out of the card? Mirror match?
Cataclysm is all but sold out on Ebay...I believe this powerhouse Death & Taxes equalizer (against aggro for those that don't know how to use it) is just starting to see its time, they're after all hard as hell to obtain in most shops and binders so it may be just a pure given.
This is just the start perhaps? (rhetorical),
S.M.
Cataclysm is all but sold out on Ebay...I believe this powerhouse Death & Taxes equalizer (against aggro for those that don't know how to use it) is just starting to see its time, they're after all hard as hell to obtain in most shops and binders so it may be just a pure given.
This is just the start perhaps? (rhetorical),
S.M.
Maybe. It has seen a $6 jump since the beginning of the year. At 4CMC and the ability to possibly give an opponent choices is questionable.
Testing will prove whether or not it is worth it... but it just seems like another 4CMC wipe. There are better things to do with those resources. SB maybe... but against what will get you value out of the card? Mirror match?
This card definitely shows up as a 2 of in many sideboards of Death and Taxes
I check the MTGO daily lists...well, daily :D. One thing I've noticed is the growing popularity (even at SCG opens), I'm not the biggest legacy buff, but does this have room to grow more? I don't know if it was talked about recently, but I didn't notice an actual "spike" of this card (I'm assuming foil versions would be more sought after.) The Buy-a-box promo is nowhere near the normal version foil, usually they end up catching up (or exceeding) to regular versions.
Picked up a set Foil Surgical not too long ago. Just another excellent card from New Phyrexia. Such a good set. Wish I would've drafted it more. Surgical, along with other cards from New Phyrexia, are primed for becoming huge gainers. Have you checked what an unopened booster box of NPH goes for these days?
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"I have seen the true path. I will not warm myself by the fire—I will become the flame."
—Lim-Dûl, the Necromancer
any reason why foil tezz aob is so high? compared to other foil planeswalkers, its quite disproportionate. i'm not really sure which group is causing this price point.
any reason why foil tezz aob is so high? compared to other foil planeswalkers, its quite disproportionate. i'm not really sure which group is causing this price point.
Tezzerator, and to an extent Affinity. Never underestimate a Legacy player's desire to pimp their favourite deck.
right... but i mean compare it proportionately to other similarly played planeswalkers, like SoA Ajani Vengeant, and even Tezzeret the Seeker. It's price point is way higher than those.
Seriously, how high can duals go? $500 for an Underground Sea? $800? I ask because there is a point where holding them is ludicrous. Many people started to feel that way about fetches and a sell-off took place.
Edit: I also tend to think we are seeing a bubble. Duals will always be worth alot but people are dumping money into staples at an insane rate. Should there be any volatility to legacy or MTG in general, the crash is going to be brutal. I guess I am just trying to envision the case where people are paying $2k for a set of Underground Seas and there aren't hundreds of sellers lined up to take his cash.
I can easily see $500 dual lands. I said this in another thread, but 3-4 years ago you would have been laughed at for saying that dual lands would reach $300. That is no longer the case due to all these rounds of panic buying and inducing buyouts of cards with low print runs. All it takes it just one person to keep buying at these prices to keep the bubble going. The secondary market is being propped up more and more by the greater fool theory rather than by fundamentals.
I like you, I do so this reply isn't a slam. I actually have a special place in my heart for greater fool theory (which I will use the acronym of GFT from now on when referring to it). It doesn't exist. It holds that people purchase any object, good or service based on the idea that "it" has intrinsic value... which nothing ever does. Air does, and food does... which is about it. The price of everything else is determined by it's subjective value. Let's say I believe USea is going to rise for 4 different reasons. The going price for USeas at the time(picking an arbitrary number) is $200. I begin buying them based on those 4 reasons I believe in. I buy as many as I can get my hands on. Now 6 months later let's say I have 78 USeas and the price is still $200. I still believe USea will appreciate but I have reached enough that I feel I shouldn't have to purchase anymore for investment/trade/speculation purposes. Another months pass and the price of USea has risen $50.
Was this a self fulling prophecy? Were others fools for buying for more then I did because I bought first and lower? Am I somehow beginning a panic? None of that would be true. People buy things based on the rate of exchange, the perceived value of the good or item they are receiving vs the expense to themselves. All value is subjective because we place different values on the same goods and services. Voila... .
Prices are determined by a measure of marginal utility and when all parties have totally free reign over their assets and al parties engage in a market together we resolve every transaction from the idea of it before the purchase to it's completion against each other like exchange and against all other exchange as a beautiful concept we call Spontaneous Order. If the price of Tarmogoyf hits $1,000 then it is because people feel it is worth having one for $1,000. This isn't crazy, no crazier then a Ancestral Recall being $1,000. Goyf gets 100x the play Recall does and is played in a format 100x more popular. it's perceived value is therefore is actually greater then Recall in many ways. Now rarity aside is people shelling out $1,000 for either card an act of foolish behavior? It is not. All behavior is rational. There is no such thing as irrational behavior. If you walk down the street and you see a man punching himself in the nose as hard as he can. His face is bloody, his nose broken the first thing you might say to yourself is "my god, that guy is crazy!", who wouldn't right? But we don't know his rationality. What if he is late for a meeting that if he knows if he is not there on time he will lose his job, lose his house, probably end up in divorce and be bankrupt in the end. Well telling your boss you got mugged while walking to work and having to fight for your life is a pretty good excuse and you probably wont loss your job when your Pronto Uomo dress shirt and suite are covered in your blood and you need your nose set.
His action is rational from his point of view, irrational from ours. One never knows.
Now all this price fluctuation we've been seeing in the last few months. Who can say for sure? I will say this. RTR added a TON of new players. Did everyone believe that adding this many new players on the pile would have no effect on the prices of cards in the game? Be real. There are consequences for things. Causality will not be deterred or circumvented under any circumstances whatsoever. If you add a huge population base to another huge population base without altering the supply of every product in the market (a reprint) what did you think would happen? We'll say there was 5,000 USeas floating around the market for sale (again arbitrary numbers) and 50,000 potential buyers. Some buyers have them, some want them, some don't have them and some don't have them and don't want them. Then we double the numbers of buyers but all of whom don't have them. Some will want them, some will have them, some will want them and don't have them, some will don't want them and don't have them.
The result of this is an economic explosion in the price of USea as new buyers begin competing over them.
Sorry if this ramble took awhile. I love to talk economics and again I didn't mean ANY of this as a flame. I've spent years studying economics and price theory.
This not the place for this discussion - the warning was given earlier in the page. Infraction issued -Uldan
I love magic, when I first started I couldn't speak English very well, this game literally improved my reading skills, now its improving my economics understanding as well. Screw the money I'm in this for the education!
Nothing to do with legacy gainers. Warning for spam -Uldan
It's true that something like Magic card has no "intrinsic" value, or at least very little, in the sense that it's just printed cardboard. It as very little utility insofar as extending your maintaining your life like food or shelter does.
That said, there are many different ways in which people derive a value for a Magic card. When people talk about the "real" value of a card, they are almost certainly talking about the value they expect people to put on a card based solely on the buyers desire to own and play that card. Perhaps their expected value for tournament play (including prizes and enjoyment). Or maybe just display it in a collection. Either way, this is value the buyer derives from owning or using the card. It does not depend on reselling the card later on.
This is conceptually different from someone who is deriving value from the idea that they will be able to sell the card for a certain amount later. This includes speculators, who are assigning almost all the value this way, but also players when they are willing to pay a premium for the confidence that they can resell the card later on if they need to.
You can get at this in the following thought experiment: Say you need to buy a playset of U.Seas to compete in a monthly legacy tournament. Are you willing to pay more or less for those U.Seas if you knew for a fact that you would never been able to sell them for what you bought them for? Is the value of playing with them worth the price? If so, then you're assigning SOME value to the card based on confidence in its resale value. We all do this to a greater or lesser degree.
The "greater fool" idea kicks in once a large amount of the buying public derives a large amount of the value of each card purchased from the cards resale or investment value. In other words, if people are buying cards almost totally based on the idea that they can be resold, and paying prices far greater than they would if they were only playing with them and had no ability to resell, then to that extent you're in greater fool territory. The value is no longer a function of "USING" the card, it's a function of "SELLING" the card.
It's troubling to me (and others, I gather) that you never really can tell when you're in greater fool territory. And, if you get too deeply in to that territory, any sudden event that undermines confidence can cause the market to collapse as the value retracts back to the "USE" value only. If the difference between the utility of using a card and the value of the card as an investment is too high, that crash can be catastrophic.
This not the place for this discussion - the warning was given earlier in the page. Infraction issued -Uldan
Can we remove these comments about -NON GAINING POSTS-? There's a place for this kind of talk, and it's NOT here.
I personally don't mind; I find it quite interesting. Besides, not much else is gaining to a point where it's noticeable (I understand that this is a flaw in the way I look at prices).
I guess a part of me is trying to figure out how much weight I should put into trading/buying into reserved list duals. Like, a part of me is afraid that something ridiculous is gonna happen at Comic Con or something (reserved list going away or whatever). It probably won't, but these prices make me anxious.
In other news, Ichorid is up to $14.49 now. Up about $5 from the last time I talked about it in this thread -- only a week or two ago.
Reprints the one card that people point to when saying that art objectifies women.
Well done Wizards.
Liliana does not objectify women in any way at all. We have gotten to a point in our society that every single picture of a women must be objectifying a women in some negative way......blah blah blah.. That is not the case. (((Sarcasm)))Picture of a girl drinking a milk shake, must be sex related and putting women down, picture of girl sitting on a beach, picture of a girl driving a car, picture of a girl on the moon at a new space station.)))
You have a picture of an attractive strong power women who girls dress up as for anime conventions. What more do you want? The picture is fine, happy to see a reprint. Sick of of seeing people claim that everything in existence must be putting women down. Then all I have to do is replace the word "women" with anything else to get the same mentality; fish, cats, arabs, blacks, jews, men, environment, whites, chinese, old people, etc. It doesn't matter what word I put in. Stop sucking life out of everything man. That artwork of her is awesome. Stop putting stuff down man. Just stop. If the picture was really as negative as you claim she would totally nude, in a kitchen, making sandwiches and giving blow jobs. Her abilities would be horrible as well. +1 do nothing -2 do nothing -6 do nothing. Instead liliana of the veil is an amazing planeswalker comparable to jace, the mind sculpter with great art to appreciate.
My suggestion listen to some comedy radio for a while, pandora is free, youtube is free there is something out there for you. ***** go make fun of somebody. The whole world is so serious and campaigning for some cause, or someones rights, everything is a hate crime, racist, sexist. blah blah blah.
"O no mcdonalds must be slandering a hate crime against skinny people every time they make a big mac." hahaha jeeze You're just someone perpetuating another groups negative perspective that they've made you believe is correct. Look at the picture for a hour and tell me what's wrong with it? I don't see anything.
I have heard vague rumors of a moustache-dispensing vending machine in a distant laundromat, across the street from a tattoo parlor. However, this information is shaky, and time is of the essence.
I respectfully disagree. The downfall of Legacy will be the reserved list.
Vintage used to be a healthy and vibrant format until price and availability issues pushed people out. It had prize support too. I was commenting that people didn't simply sell off their power to have a happy medium for tournament players and availability. Prices will eventually push people out if the game keeps growing and people refuse to sell their duals, as many will.
My current trade thread.
All your Ice Age Foil Basics are belong to us
If you have any foil 7ED Island #334 I am very interested!
This is just the start perhaps? (rhetorical),
S.M.
Maybe. It has seen a $6 jump since the beginning of the year. At 4CMC and the ability to possibly give an opponent choices is questionable.
Testing will prove whether or not it is worth it... but it just seems like another 4CMC wipe. There are better things to do with those resources. SB maybe... but against what will get you value out of the card? Mirror match?
Commander might be helping also.
Cataclysm is game-ender in a Bruna deck, so Commander certainly isn't hurting.
GReki, the History of Kamigawa Legendfall
UGEdric, Spymaster of Trest Drawmaster of Trest | GBGlissa the Traitor A Touch of Death | WBTeysa, Orzhov Scion Spinning in Graves
UWIsperia, Supreme Judge A Riddles of Sphinxes | RG Mena and Denn, Wildborn Beware Falling Rocks | GWSigarda, Host of Hurons The Enchantress
WRGRith the Awakener Superfriendly Tokens
This card definitely shows up as a 2 of in many sideboards of Death and Taxes
I check the MTGO daily lists...well, daily :D. One thing I've noticed is the growing popularity (even at SCG opens), I'm not the biggest legacy buff, but does this have room to grow more? I don't know if it was talked about recently, but I didn't notice an actual "spike" of this card (I'm assuming foil versions would be more sought after.) The Buy-a-box promo is nowhere near the normal version foil, usually they end up catching up (or exceeding) to regular versions.
—Lim-Dûl, the Necromancer
Tezzerator, and to an extent Affinity. Never underestimate a Legacy player's desire to pimp their favourite deck.
I like you, I do so this reply isn't a slam. I actually have a special place in my heart for greater fool theory (which I will use the acronym of GFT from now on when referring to it). It doesn't exist. It holds that people purchase any object, good or service based on the idea that "it" has intrinsic value... which nothing ever does. Air does, and food does... which is about it. The price of everything else is determined by it's subjective value. Let's say I believe USea is going to rise for 4 different reasons. The going price for USeas at the time(picking an arbitrary number) is $200. I begin buying them based on those 4 reasons I believe in. I buy as many as I can get my hands on. Now 6 months later let's say I have 78 USeas and the price is still $200. I still believe USea will appreciate but I have reached enough that I feel I shouldn't have to purchase anymore for investment/trade/speculation purposes. Another months pass and the price of USea has risen $50.
Was this a self fulling prophecy? Were others fools for buying for more then I did because I bought first and lower? Am I somehow beginning a panic? None of that would be true. People buy things based on the rate of exchange, the perceived value of the good or item they are receiving vs the expense to themselves. All value is subjective because we place different values on the same goods and services. Voila... .
Prices are determined by a measure of marginal utility and when all parties have totally free reign over their assets and al parties engage in a market together we resolve every transaction from the idea of it before the purchase to it's completion against each other like exchange and against all other exchange as a beautiful concept we call Spontaneous Order. If the price of Tarmogoyf hits $1,000 then it is because people feel it is worth having one for $1,000. This isn't crazy, no crazier then a Ancestral Recall being $1,000. Goyf gets 100x the play Recall does and is played in a format 100x more popular. it's perceived value is therefore is actually greater then Recall in many ways. Now rarity aside is people shelling out $1,000 for either card an act of foolish behavior? It is not. All behavior is rational. There is no such thing as irrational behavior. If you walk down the street and you see a man punching himself in the nose as hard as he can. His face is bloody, his nose broken the first thing you might say to yourself is "my god, that guy is crazy!", who wouldn't right? But we don't know his rationality. What if he is late for a meeting that if he knows if he is not there on time he will lose his job, lose his house, probably end up in divorce and be bankrupt in the end. Well telling your boss you got mugged while walking to work and having to fight for your life is a pretty good excuse and you probably wont loss your job when your Pronto Uomo dress shirt and suite are covered in your blood and you need your nose set.
His action is rational from his point of view, irrational from ours. One never knows.
Now all this price fluctuation we've been seeing in the last few months. Who can say for sure? I will say this. RTR added a TON of new players. Did everyone believe that adding this many new players on the pile would have no effect on the prices of cards in the game? Be real. There are consequences for things. Causality will not be deterred or circumvented under any circumstances whatsoever. If you add a huge population base to another huge population base without altering the supply of every product in the market (a reprint) what did you think would happen? We'll say there was 5,000 USeas floating around the market for sale (again arbitrary numbers) and 50,000 potential buyers. Some buyers have them, some want them, some don't have them and some don't have them and don't want them. Then we double the numbers of buyers but all of whom don't have them. Some will want them, some will have them, some will want them and don't have them, some will don't want them and don't have them.
The result of this is an economic explosion in the price of USea as new buyers begin competing over them.
Sorry if this ramble took awhile. I love to talk economics and again I didn't mean ANY of this as a flame. I've spent years studying economics and price theory.
This not the place for this discussion - the warning was given earlier in the page. Infraction issued -Uldan
Nothing to do with legacy gainers. Warning for spam -Uldan
RIP Karn EDH
It's true that something like Magic card has no "intrinsic" value, or at least very little, in the sense that it's just printed cardboard. It as very little utility insofar as extending your maintaining your life like food or shelter does.
That said, there are many different ways in which people derive a value for a Magic card. When people talk about the "real" value of a card, they are almost certainly talking about the value they expect people to put on a card based solely on the buyers desire to own and play that card. Perhaps their expected value for tournament play (including prizes and enjoyment). Or maybe just display it in a collection. Either way, this is value the buyer derives from owning or using the card. It does not depend on reselling the card later on.
This is conceptually different from someone who is deriving value from the idea that they will be able to sell the card for a certain amount later. This includes speculators, who are assigning almost all the value this way, but also players when they are willing to pay a premium for the confidence that they can resell the card later on if they need to.
You can get at this in the following thought experiment: Say you need to buy a playset of U.Seas to compete in a monthly legacy tournament. Are you willing to pay more or less for those U.Seas if you knew for a fact that you would never been able to sell them for what you bought them for? Is the value of playing with them worth the price? If so, then you're assigning SOME value to the card based on confidence in its resale value. We all do this to a greater or lesser degree.
The "greater fool" idea kicks in once a large amount of the buying public derives a large amount of the value of each card purchased from the cards resale or investment value. In other words, if people are buying cards almost totally based on the idea that they can be resold, and paying prices far greater than they would if they were only playing with them and had no ability to resell, then to that extent you're in greater fool territory. The value is no longer a function of "USING" the card, it's a function of "SELLING" the card.
It's troubling to me (and others, I gather) that you never really can tell when you're in greater fool territory. And, if you get too deeply in to that territory, any sudden event that undermines confidence can cause the market to collapse as the value retracts back to the "USE" value only. If the difference between the utility of using a card and the value of the card as an investment is too high, that crash can be catastrophic.
This not the place for this discussion - the warning was given earlier in the page. Infraction issued -Uldan
Please just report posts and let the staff handle it -warning for spam -Uldan
I personally don't mind; I find it quite interesting. Besides, not much else is gaining to a point where it's noticeable (I understand that this is a flaw in the way I look at prices).
I guess a part of me is trying to figure out how much weight I should put into trading/buying into reserved list duals. Like, a part of me is afraid that something ridiculous is gonna happen at Comic Con or something (reserved list going away or whatever). It probably won't, but these prices make me anxious.
In other news, Ichorid is up to $14.49 now. Up about $5 from the last time I talked about it in this thread -- only a week or two ago.