not sure if i follow you RE. if the product sells out then the supply will increase. that naturally drops prices. are you suggesting that there is such a large amount of excess demand that even if the entire supply of sealed product is bought out and opened, that it will still not meet demand for ravnica singles?
not sure if i consider this plausible. which cards in the set are generating this much demand?
Ravnica's singles are very valuable - one of the best sets lately. Demand for boxes at suggested retail price is through the roof. So much so that you can't get them for regular price anywhere at all. This will NOT drive down the value of the singles, as many are suggesting.
I think you should be looking to New Phyrexia as a yard stick for this kind of argument (yeah it isn't a big set, but the set had a lot of value from top to bottom) I mean cards like Phyrexian Metamorph (a card that was heavily used while it was in standard) was easily available and would be considered a top tier card. Most of the set was above 3 dollars for the rares and had a lot of cross format all star style cards. It was available, (it obviously did not have the demand that RTR does) but eventually all the cards in the set evened out overall (except for Sword of War and Peace, that was always high while it was in standard up until very very recently (like M13 release)
I think the values of the cards will even out overall. If there is such a demand at suggested retail price, Wizards will print it to meet demand, then it will taper off like it always does (probably not until maybe after Gatecrash if these shortages are to last that long)
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I just want people who redraft to admit this:
"I can't draft objectively unless I am able to guarantee that I receive at least 3 rares. I am also better than most average/new players so I want to make sure that I get the best rares and they end up with worse ones. I care more about the monetary value of cards than actually playing the game for decent prizes."
It's very strange to see people claiming that the high demand for this set is going to push prices down. It's like they're joking..... but I don't think they are. They don't seem to get that the high demand for this set is because the cards in it are super powerful, and therefore in huge demand. Yes, people are going to open as much RTR as they can, absolutely. But that's not going to push down prices.
What a great crop of tomatoes this year! They're so juicy and sweet. People are buying them up like wild. This surely will drop the value of tomatoes this year.
Tomatoes are a perishable asset that can be eaten also, Thus limiting supply. Where as cards can be reused and traded, The more of that card that are in circulation, the less people are buying them. Thus stores lower their prices on them to sell them.
Here is the thing with RTR supply and everything else. This set has insane value, thats been established via current pre-sales prices and what people have been and are willing to pay.
Demand for pre-sales on singles and Sealed boxes has been higher than any set likely in the history of magic at this point in their print run. This can be seen by the sheer amount of stores (online and otherwise) that have sold out of their pre-sales allotments and/or have jacked their prices up and STILL are selling stuff. Case in point, SCG selling through stuff so much that they are up to $130/box in pre-sales.
There has been some confirmation of a shortage to where there will be a brief period before a second print run is available (a week or so?), and then after that, we dont know when the next print run would be available. This could lead to an issue with availability of the sealed product and possibly on the singles if the demand is simply THAT high.
However, once all of those pre-sold boxes get openned, then whatever people decide they dont need to keep for themselves, will find its way onto the secondary market, thus increasing that supply a good amount temporarily and at the very least stabilizing, if not lowering the prices on some things some, depending on the real demand for the card once the cards are available to actually be played and what manages to do well in tournaments after the release.
If there is no shortage, for example, then people will just keep buying, openning, and selling the contents of the boxes until the supply/demand equasion equalizes to such a point that the value of the box drops back down to a more reasonable number to where most people wouldnt consider it automatically worth it to buy the boxes and sell the singles.
Supply, compared to the current pre-sales and Pre-release supply will increase after the release of the set once the singles from the insane amount of pre-sold boxes hit the market. From there its all up to demand. Anything casual-only will get squished in value as the tournament staples inevitably take up the vast majority of the set's value as they usually do until the sets rotate from standard.
With states being in just a couple weeks though, that demand is going to be quite high coming out of the gates as people try to figure out whats good, whats not, and make sure they have what they need NOW so they are prepared. Im currently fully expecting to get constantly bombarded for the next couple weeks until after states as everyone scrambles to get what they need.
As we noticed with Innistrad release the money cards of that set were on fire just after the set released. I notice a similar case here but made even worse by the demand for packs that Innistrad did not have.
Liliana of the Veil topped out at 60 bucks a copy for a very brief period.
I read your link, and I think that is discounting a major factor of drafting. The entertainment value. I can go out and see a movie for $8, or I can spend $10 (or $12 at my LGS) and spend 4 hours drafting with a group of friends and talking and having fun and playing a game of skill. I would opt for the latter any day of the week. The cards inside some sets may not be worth the price of the packs, but I just got hours of entertainment and may have something to show for it at the end.
Sorry, no time to respond to responses right now.
Just posting to say I'll update this when I can. My grandmother has fallen ill suddenly and is in hospital tonight. I'm getting in the car and heading there right now. I see that my presales are already going wonky, I've sold out on certain rares like Mizzium Mortars (why the hell....?) and everything needs repricing. But I can't deal with it until later. Sorry for the short notice, byeee...
I see that my presales are already going wonky, I've sold out on certain rares like Mizzium Mortars (why the hell....?)...
Mortars has been one of the most anticipated rares of the set, so it shouldn't be surprising that it's selling well. I imagine the price would be ~$5+ if it wasn't included in the Intro and Event decks to increase supply.
Sorry, no time to respond to responses right now.
Just posting to say I'll update this when I can. My grandmother has fallen ill suddenly and is in hospital tonight. I'm getting in the car and heading there right now. I see that my presales are already going wonky, I've sold out on certain rares like Mizzium Mortars (why the hell....?) and everything needs repricing. But I can't deal with it until later. Sorry for the short notice, byeee...
Sorry to hear about your Grandmother, hope she's ok.
Regarding Mizzium Mortars.
1.) It handles almost everything, with a few exceptions, mostly at 5 mana and above (Armada Wurm, Angel of Serenity, Rakdos etc).
I can't believe anyone is excited about this card. It is absolutely unplayable. I wouldn't even play her in LIMITED. Easily the worst walker printed since the green elf one. Absolutely terrible.
Very sorry to hear about your grandmother R_E, my best wishes.go out to your family, I know how hard it is. Both of my parents have been in and out of the hospital with serious conditions over the past year.
Now, as to Mizzium Mortars, I agree with the above, adding that its extreme flexibility is what makes it great. The only downfall is the RRR in its overload, which requires either heavy red devotion, or good fixing, but it is incredibly useful. It may be an overpriced Flame Slash on the surface, but reapply I think of it as a one-sided sweeper that can, in a pinch, be used more cheaply as targeted burn that can handle most threats.
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Decks
Commander
Ezuri, Renegade Leader (Aggro/Combo - Favorite) Skullbriar, the Walking Grave (Sac and Grave hijinks) Azusa, Lost but Seeking (Landfall hijinks) Kaalia of the Vast (Heavily modded)
Edit: Another cards to watch for is Sphinx's Revelation. Several online authors including Chapin are suggesting this card for blue decks. Just a head's up.
More talk of RTR shortage. I'm quoting the following from Glen Jones' SCG Open Cinci preview article:
I can't emphasize this next point enough:
Preorder your cards. Please!
This set is in high demand and low supply, which means we cannot guarantee our sales booth will provide what you're looking for in show stock. If you want to guarantee that you get a card for your deck, preorder it in advance on StarCityGames.com and select the Event Pickup option. Then just show up at the sales booth with an ID and grab your order!
I think this is more than just the typical, "Buy now while supplies last..." mumbo-jumbo stores give us each year. He seems sincere that SCG is concerned about supply of this set. And if SCG is concernedd, we should all be concerned.
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WoTC, thank you for finally announcing the Modern format, an eternal format where everyone can participate.
More talk of RTR shortage. I'm quoting the following from Glen Jones' SCG Open Cinci preview article:
I think this is more than just the typical, "Buy now while supplies last..." mumbo-jumbo stores give us each year. He seems sincere that SCG is concerned about supply of this set. And if SCG is concernedd, we should all be concerned.
To me it seems Glen is concerned about the supply of RTR for the SCG Open in Cinci which is the extreme short term. I think supply will be a none-issue in a couple of months.
More talk of RTR shortage. I'm quoting the following from Glen Jones' SCG Open Cinci preview article:
I think this is more than just the typical, "Buy now while supplies last..." mumbo-jumbo stores give us each year. He seems sincere that SCG is concerned about supply of this set. And if SCG is concernedd, we should all be concerned.
It's a combo of the SCG event and States being within weeks of the release. It's going to make supply and demand "interesting."
To me it seems Glen is concerned about the supply of RTR for the SCG Open in Cinci which is the extreme short term. I think supply will be a none-issue in a couple of months.
A couple of months is a long time! Sets come out roughly quarterly, so two months is a big chunk of time in a set's life.
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WoTC, thank you for finally announcing the Modern format, an eternal format where everyone can participate.
I think you should be looking to New Phyrexia as a yard stick for this kind of argument (yeah it isn't a big set, but the set had a lot of value from top to bottom) I mean cards like Phyrexian Metamorph (a card that was heavily used while it was in standard) was easily available and would be considered a top tier card. Most of the set was above 3 dollars for the rares and had a lot of cross format all star style cards. It was available, (it obviously did not have the demand that RTR does) but eventually all the cards in the set evened out overall (except for Sword of War and Peace, that was always high while it was in standard up until very very recently (like M13 release)
I think the values of the cards will even out overall. If there is such a demand at suggested retail price, Wizards will print it to meet demand, then it will taper off like it always does (probably not until maybe after Gatecrash if these shortages are to last that long)
WaP was a $14 card before it jumped to 35+ due to Lingering Souls, and 14 is probably where it will settle again. BUT that's for another time and thread.
States has artificially inflated RtR prices, and don't expect high eternal prices for bomb rares in this set if its not a multi format crossing foil. RtR is being opened at extremely high rates.
I often look at SCG to see where trends are. Their prices are way higher than most, but they are also the largest online seller, so I feel they are great barometer for what's going on out there. Consiquently, I'd like to point out what cards they are out of as of release day (today).
It used to be pretty rare that they'd sell out of a card before release. The only two that come to mind are Mox Opal and Snapcaster Mage. But now, they are out of eight cards as of this posting. That's incredible!
Plenty of Slitherhead playsets for $1 on eBay.
And yeah, keep in mind SCG isn't sold out when they're "sold out". Their policies are such that they can't drop prices during the presale period, so they start everything out low (or at least low for them), but only list a portion of the inventory they'll have once they open their billions of cases. If it sells quickly, they raise the price once it "sells out", and add a bit more stock. If that "sells out", they add a bit more, and knock the price up a bit more.
Just sayin, their system is kinda complicated and you can't gather much information from seeing that something there is sold out.
Just popping in, had a shower and food, now back to the hospital.
Things are worse than expected so ... fingers crossed for grama.
D
Plenty of Slitherhead playsets for $1 on eBay.
And yeah, keep in mind SCG isn't sold out when they're "sold out". Their policies are such that they can't drop prices during the presale period, so they start everything out low (or at least low for them), but only list a portion of the inventory they'll have once they open their billions of cases. If it sells quickly, they raise the price once it "sells out", and add a bit more stock. If that "sells out", they add a bit more, and knock the price up a bit more.
Just sayin, their system is kinda complicated and you can't gather much information from seeing that something there is sold out.
Just popping in, had a shower and food, now back to the hospital.
Things are worse than expected so ... fingers crossed for grama.
D
Hope things go well for your family.
There's also usually a small delay between a SCG 'sellout' and the next listing, while they re-assess how much to jump the price, if it all. Sometimes, there's no price change when they re-stock.
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not sure if i consider this plausible. which cards in the set are generating this much demand?
I think you should be looking to New Phyrexia as a yard stick for this kind of argument (yeah it isn't a big set, but the set had a lot of value from top to bottom) I mean cards like Phyrexian Metamorph (a card that was heavily used while it was in standard) was easily available and would be considered a top tier card. Most of the set was above 3 dollars for the rares and had a lot of cross format all star style cards. It was available, (it obviously did not have the demand that RTR does) but eventually all the cards in the set evened out overall (except for Sword of War and Peace, that was always high while it was in standard up until very very recently (like M13 release)
I think the values of the cards will even out overall. If there is such a demand at suggested retail price, Wizards will print it to meet demand, then it will taper off like it always does (probably not until maybe after Gatecrash if these shortages are to last that long)
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Tomatoes are a perishable asset that can be eaten also, Thus limiting supply. Where as cards can be reused and traded, The more of that card that are in circulation, the less people are buying them. Thus stores lower their prices on them to sell them.
Just a thought?
Demand for pre-sales on singles and Sealed boxes has been higher than any set likely in the history of magic at this point in their print run. This can be seen by the sheer amount of stores (online and otherwise) that have sold out of their pre-sales allotments and/or have jacked their prices up and STILL are selling stuff. Case in point, SCG selling through stuff so much that they are up to $130/box in pre-sales.
There has been some confirmation of a shortage to where there will be a brief period before a second print run is available (a week or so?), and then after that, we dont know when the next print run would be available. This could lead to an issue with availability of the sealed product and possibly on the singles if the demand is simply THAT high.
However, once all of those pre-sold boxes get openned, then whatever people decide they dont need to keep for themselves, will find its way onto the secondary market, thus increasing that supply a good amount temporarily and at the very least stabilizing, if not lowering the prices on some things some, depending on the real demand for the card once the cards are available to actually be played and what manages to do well in tournaments after the release.
If there is no shortage, for example, then people will just keep buying, openning, and selling the contents of the boxes until the supply/demand equasion equalizes to such a point that the value of the box drops back down to a more reasonable number to where most people wouldnt consider it automatically worth it to buy the boxes and sell the singles.
Supply, compared to the current pre-sales and Pre-release supply will increase after the release of the set once the singles from the insane amount of pre-sold boxes hit the market. From there its all up to demand. Anything casual-only will get squished in value as the tournament staples inevitably take up the vast majority of the set's value as they usually do until the sets rotate from standard.
With states being in just a couple weeks though, that demand is going to be quite high coming out of the gates as people try to figure out whats good, whats not, and make sure they have what they need NOW so they are prepared. Im currently fully expecting to get constantly bombarded for the next couple weeks until after states as everyone scrambles to get what they need.
Liliana of the Veil topped out at 60 bucks a copy for a very brief period.
Feel free to bid on my cards here!
Kirblar,
I read your link, and I think that is discounting a major factor of drafting. The entertainment value. I can go out and see a movie for $8, or I can spend $10 (or $12 at my LGS) and spend 4 hours drafting with a group of friends and talking and having fun and playing a game of skill. I would opt for the latter any day of the week. The cards inside some sets may not be worth the price of the packs, but I just got hours of entertainment and may have something to show for it at the end.
Just posting to say I'll update this when I can. My grandmother has fallen ill suddenly and is in hospital tonight. I'm getting in the car and heading there right now. I see that my presales are already going wonky, I've sold out on certain rares like Mizzium Mortars (why the hell....?) and everything needs repricing. But I can't deal with it until later. Sorry for the short notice, byeee...
.
Mortars has been one of the most anticipated rares of the set, so it shouldn't be surprising that it's selling well. I imagine the price would be ~$5+ if it wasn't included in the Intro and Event decks to increase supply.
Sorry to hear about your Grandmother, hope she's ok.
Regarding Mizzium Mortars.
1.) It handles almost everything, with a few exceptions, mostly at 5 mana and above (Armada Wurm, Angel of Serenity, Rakdos etc).
2.) Snapcaster Mage + Mizzium Mortars = New Flametongue Kavu. Creatures used to need to pass the "Flametongue Kavu" test, they now need to pass the Mizzium Mortars test.
3.) Unlike Bonfire of the Damned, any red deck can run it as a 4-of and not worry that it's dead in your hand in the early game.
4.) Unlike Flame Slash, it's great both in the early game and the late game.
Now, as to Mizzium Mortars, I agree with the above, adding that its extreme flexibility is what makes it great. The only downfall is the RRR in its overload, which requires either heavy red devotion, or good fixing, but it is incredibly useful. It may be an overpriced Flame Slash on the surface, but reapply I think of it as a one-sided sweeper that can, in a pinch, be used more cheaply as targeted burn that can handle most threats.
Commander
Ezuri, Renegade Leader (Aggro/Combo - Favorite)
Skullbriar, the Walking Grave (Sac and Grave hijinks)
Azusa, Lost but Seeking (Landfall hijinks)
Kaalia of the Vast (Heavily modded)
Standard
Waiting for Innistrad...
Extended
Hah!
Modern
Living End Cascade (RGB)
Legacy
Burn
Vintage
None
Casual
WB Aggro-Control
Green Stompy
Pink Floyd (UWr Wall Control)
Lunch Box (Fatty ramp)
D-Bag (White Control)
Level 13 Task Mage
Edit: Another cards to watch for is Sphinx's Revelation. Several online authors including Chapin are suggesting this card for blue decks. Just a head's up.
I think this is more than just the typical, "Buy now while supplies last..." mumbo-jumbo stores give us each year. He seems sincere that SCG is concerned about supply of this set. And if SCG is concernedd, we should all be concerned.
To me it seems Glen is concerned about the supply of RTR for the SCG Open in Cinci which is the extreme short term. I think supply will be a none-issue in a couple of months.
It's a combo of the SCG event and States being within weeks of the release. It's going to make supply and demand "interesting."
Tldr: SHIP IT ALL
A couple of months is a long time! Sets come out roughly quarterly, so two months is a big chunk of time in a set's life.
And in this case, its a much bigger deal because Gatecrash hits in late January.
Current post- Grand Prix KC Modern Postmortem (7/7/13)
WaP was a $14 card before it jumped to 35+ due to Lingering Souls, and 14 is probably where it will settle again. BUT that's for another time and thread.
States has artificially inflated RtR prices, and don't expect high eternal prices for bomb rares in this set if its not a multi format crossing foil. RtR is being opened at extremely high rates.
SCG RTR "Sold Out" update:
It used to be pretty rare that they'd sell out of a card before release. The only two that come to mind are Mox Opal and Snapcaster Mage. But now, they are out of eight cards as of this posting. That's incredible!
Peace,
-Troy
Hmm seems a bit odd...
I mean with the amount they bust you figure the rares would be the only thing that could truly sell out.
Feel free to bid on my cards here!
And yeah, keep in mind SCG isn't sold out when they're "sold out". Their policies are such that they can't drop prices during the presale period, so they start everything out low (or at least low for them), but only list a portion of the inventory they'll have once they open their billions of cases. If it sells quickly, they raise the price once it "sells out", and add a bit more stock. If that "sells out", they add a bit more, and knock the price up a bit more.
Just sayin, their system is kinda complicated and you can't gather much information from seeing that something there is sold out.
Just popping in, had a shower and food, now back to the hospital.
Things are worse than expected so ... fingers crossed for grama.
D
.
Current post- Grand Prix KC Modern Postmortem (7/7/13)
Hope things go well for your family.
There's also usually a small delay between a SCG 'sellout' and the next listing, while they re-assess how much to jump the price, if it all. Sometimes, there's no price change when they re-stock.