I said people are setting themselves up for disappointment, I didn't say they would be disappointed. Huge difference.
I can't predict EV off 3 spoiled cards and never said I could but surely the probability of EV being greater than 250 is worse than 160, no? Thus the words "setting themselves up" - ie. the probability of them being disappointed is increasing as the price for product soars past MSRP.
And for the out of print thing - what I said was 100% on the mark. Out of print product prices cannot be compared to prices on products that haven't even hit the market. They are 100% completely different. In one situation you have 100% knowledge of EV, supply and demand and the other is driven purely by speculation.
sorry for the editing - saying all of that on a phone was tedious so I just hopped on the computer.
Gonna add on for this last part:
Surely throwing down $168 (the MSRP) for a box that didn't meet your expectations would also piss you off? So again, this is not an argument that makes sense.
Your anger level is obviously going to be directly proportional to the amount of perceived loss you took on the box. If you pay 100$ more then under any conceivable circumstance you would be more angry.
I think, personally, that people paying $200+ per box will not make their money back, on average.
You want to make money? Buy shocklands and sell six months from now.
I mean, if we're talking about it in terms of brute EV, you never make your money back opening boxes and or packs. I think anyone who wants to make $$ from this set is going to be reselling boxes that they got at either retail or less than 200$.
At this point, buying the boxes at reasonable price, (Say 200 or under), is a win-win. Either there's enough supply of the set, and you can just hold the box for a period of time until it goes up above its MSRP like every box has in the past, or there's a short run on the supply, and it'll be worth 250 or more, and you can just immediately sell for profit.
Lets be honest, if there's enough of the set to go around, it won't for long, given that the drafting on it should deplete the supply rapidly.
if we're talking about it in terms of brute EV, you never make your money back opening boxes and or packs.
Sure you can - you just have to buy at a good price and dump everything immediately onto Ebay the day of release. Many sets have EV over cost of a box the day of release. I have made money on the following sets by buying product and selling singles: AVR, RTR, GTC.
I think people overlook the value the boxes contain and just add up the top 10 money cards. Selling complete sets of commons/uncommons, foils, promos, and playsets of the smaller rares will take the 80$ you thought you got per box and put you up to 130+ most of the time.
On the topic of MM, there are some feedback systems in place that protect the buyers even at the 200+ price point which is -
1. Depending on scarcity, even if the set fails to meet expectations, the sheer fact that people paid 200+ makes them unwilling to sell cards low - so it naturally stabilizes EV at a higher point.
2. Price memory is going to be in effect, so even if there is more product available, people are still going to be willing to pay a good amount per box, so the potential for loss - strictly on the face value of boxes - isn't that great imho.
And then of course, there's the simple fact that, across the board, modern staples are trending up due to scarcity and player base growth. Even if you don't pull well on this, by next year, MM will be hard to find and prices will be rebounding - eventually you'll probably feel ok with the amount you spent on your box.
I said people are setting themselves up for disappointment, I didn't say they would be disappointed. Huge difference.
I can't predict EV off 3 spoiled cards and never said I could but surely the probability of EV being greater than 250 is worse than 160, no? Thus the words "setting themselves up" - ie. the probability of them being disappointed is increasing as the price for product soars past MSRP.
But when you say someone is setting themselves up to fail, you're saying the risk of failure is high. Obviously if you just mean there's some risk, there's some risk at $160 too. Still, climbing Mt. Everest is a risky activity. But you wouldn't say to a well-prepared climber that they were setting themselves up to fail when they tell you they're planning on Everest. You'd say it if you had good reason to think their chance of failure was high; like they're planning on doing it in gym shorts. So, I'm asking what makes you think that $250 is "gym shorts" level.
And for the out of print thing - what I said was 100% on the mark. Out of print product prices cannot be compared to prices on products that haven't even hit the market. They are 100% completely different. In one situation you have 100% knowledge of EV, supply and demand and the other is driven purely by speculation.
What you said was 100% off the mark, and the two are 100% the same. Because we're not talking about making money off the ephemeral product, but on making money off the actual product once it's out. So maybe you can say it's a bad idea to pay $250 for a box that isn't out yet that you're trying to make a profit on by reselling before the box is out, but that has zero relation to whether or not it's a bad idea when you're trying to make a profit on it by reselling it after the box is out. And in THAT situation, which is the one we're discussing, there's no difference between "out of print" prices and any other relevant price.
Sure you can - you just have to buy at a good price and dump everything immediately onto Ebay the day of release. Many sets have EV over cost of a box the day of release. I have made money on the following sets by buying product and selling singles: AVR, RTR, GTC.
I think people overlook the value the boxes contain and just add up the top 10 money cards. Selling complete sets of commons/uncommons, foils, promos, and playsets of the smaller rares will take the 80$ you thought you got per box and put you up to 130+ most of the time.
This is the first really intelligent thing I've seen you write, so I don't think you're stupid. I just wanted you to defend your statement through SOME reasoning that seemed to indicate that you thought $10/pack was greater than the value OF THE ACTUAL PACK AFTER RELEASE, but now you're saying you were just saying it's riskier than paying $7/pack. I feel like that's a pretty open statement to just throw out there for public consumption, so I apologize for thinking you had something more behind it.
Just because you bought the product doesn't mean you have to get all personal. My initial statement was QUITE fair - I even pointed out that I don't have any indicators to lead me to any statements about supply of product. My only statement was that people were putting themselves at a huge risk for disappointment by paying so much for this product. This is a FORUM, man. You don't see how I could put that out there for public consumption? Seriously? You're the one deciding that I think packs will be valued somewhere between 6.99 and 10$ simply because you didn't understand my initial statement and even after I clarified, are still trying to push that. The argument is quite simple - people paying 2x more than MSRP (there's even talk of 3x more on other forums) is increasing the odds you don't hit EV and increasing the odds for disappointment. There's a lot of hype and a lot of people spending a lot of money on something they know very little about. Putting a completely fair word of caution out there is something somebody should be doing right now.
I hate to do this because I really hate when it's done but here is what you've done through your last posts:
1. Constructed a strawman argument.
To elaborate: You're asking me to give a reason why I think packs will have value X. I'm NOT saying that and never have. I'm saying the probability declines as X increases.
2. Begged the question.
Specifically, see paragraph 1 of your recent post.
3. Ad Hominen'd me.
It's tame but see paragraph 3.
More importantly than any of that -
My initial statement was simply a word of caution. It was not an absolutist statement or prediction or evaluation of value. I will not conform to your demands to make it a numbers argument - it doesn't require it. It is supported by very simple and sound logic and I continue to stand by the assessment - people who are paying a lot for this product are putting themselves in a position of risk.
I think you are still unable to see what I'm saying clearly so here: The relationship is monotonic increasing - NOT black and white. Consider an upward sloping linear line which represents cost of a box. As you move to the right, the probability of that line being above the EV line (currently not drawn bc it's unknown) decreases at an increasing rate. You keep asking for me to quantify this when it doesn't need to be. When I refuse to quantify you try to make it black and white - it is not that either. Would you pay 500$ for a box of MM? Probably not, but why? Because risk, as you percieve it, is probably too high at that price point. You're asking me to quantify the risk equation and that's impossible. It doesn't invalidate my point or validate yours to ask me something that's impossible.
ps: Your assessment of comparing MM to Zendikar is still completely faulty. I'm not sure why you're even bothering on that point, but ok.
pps: I think you might want to take internet forums a little less seriously.
I'm seeing a lot of people base their EV estimates on the likely reprints of specific high-priced cards (clique, bob, thoughtseize, etc) but also basing it on the current prices of those cards. If those cards are reprinted, the value will drop somewhat. If they are not reprinted, the value of the set is obviously diminished. Either way, I'm not shelling out $250 for a box.
I think the big risk, is even if they reprint 4 high value mythics, you are still less likely to get the ones you want then even in a standard box because of less packs per box. So hopefully people are being careful with their estimates. I wonder 2 things when it comes to MM, will the sets cards be more valuable over time then the original because they come from a smaller print run, making them more rare. But also the worry that the new stock, even though its claimed to be small, will tank the original value. Its hard to see any current set, which MM will be in limited quantity, commanding such a high price for its cards. I would think anything printed in MM will take a huge hit in price before later recovering once the print run is done.
The value here is keeping the box sealed. People will shell out a bunch of money just for the opportunity to gamble on pulling a 'Goyf or even a FOIL 'Goyf (or any other high priced FOIL for that matter).
Just because you bought the product doesn't mean you have to get all personal.
The person who is taking it personally seems to be you. You tossed out an incindiary statement, and now you're saying, "Oh, no, I didn't mean anything! I'm just saying prebuying anything is a risk. I wasn't making any prediction about value!" Gee, thank you for that insight.
I'm seeing a lot of people base their EV estimates on the likely reprints of specific high-priced cards (clique, bob, thoughtseize, etc) but also basing it on the current prices of those cards. If those cards are reprinted, the value will drop somewhat. If they are not reprinted, the value of the set is obviously diminished. Either way, I'm not shelling out $250 for a box.
The difference is that MM is a limited print run, so it's unlikely to depress the value of cards by much. And if everyone is holding onto sealed boxes, MM singles might even command a premium over their originals, simply because they are harder to get. An Anthologies Goblin Grenade is worth twice as much as a regular one.
I said people are setting themselves up for disappointment, I didn't say they would be disappointed. Huge difference.
I can't predict EV off 3 spoiled cards and never said I could but surely the probability of EV being greater than 250 is worse than 160, no? Thus the words "setting themselves up" - ie. the probability of them being disappointed is increasing as the price for product soars past MSRP.
And for the out of print thing - what I said was 100% on the mark. Out of print product prices cannot be compared to prices on products that haven't even hit the market. They are 100% completely different. In one situation you have 100% knowledge of EV, supply and demand and the other is driven purely by speculation.
sorry for the editing - saying all of that on a phone was tedious so I just hopped on the computer.
Gonna add on for this last part:
Your anger level is obviously going to be directly proportional to the amount of perceived loss you took on the box. If you pay 100$ more then under any conceivable circumstance you would be more angry.
You want to make money? Buy shocklands and sell six months from now.
I mean, if we're talking about it in terms of brute EV, you never make your money back opening boxes and or packs. I think anyone who wants to make $$ from this set is going to be reselling boxes that they got at either retail or less than 200$.
At this point, buying the boxes at reasonable price, (Say 200 or under), is a win-win. Either there's enough supply of the set, and you can just hold the box for a period of time until it goes up above its MSRP like every box has in the past, or there's a short run on the supply, and it'll be worth 250 or more, and you can just immediately sell for profit.
Lets be honest, if there's enough of the set to go around, it won't for long, given that the drafting on it should deplete the supply rapidly.
Legacy Decks:
Legendary Maverick GW
Sure you can - you just have to buy at a good price and dump everything immediately onto Ebay the day of release. Many sets have EV over cost of a box the day of release. I have made money on the following sets by buying product and selling singles: AVR, RTR, GTC.
I think people overlook the value the boxes contain and just add up the top 10 money cards. Selling complete sets of commons/uncommons, foils, promos, and playsets of the smaller rares will take the 80$ you thought you got per box and put you up to 130+ most of the time.
On the topic of MM, there are some feedback systems in place that protect the buyers even at the 200+ price point which is -
1. Depending on scarcity, even if the set fails to meet expectations, the sheer fact that people paid 200+ makes them unwilling to sell cards low - so it naturally stabilizes EV at a higher point.
2. Price memory is going to be in effect, so even if there is more product available, people are still going to be willing to pay a good amount per box, so the potential for loss - strictly on the face value of boxes - isn't that great imho.
And then of course, there's the simple fact that, across the board, modern staples are trending up due to scarcity and player base growth. Even if you don't pull well on this, by next year, MM will be hard to find and prices will be rebounding - eventually you'll probably feel ok with the amount you spent on your box.
But when you say someone is setting themselves up to fail, you're saying the risk of failure is high. Obviously if you just mean there's some risk, there's some risk at $160 too. Still, climbing Mt. Everest is a risky activity. But you wouldn't say to a well-prepared climber that they were setting themselves up to fail when they tell you they're planning on Everest. You'd say it if you had good reason to think their chance of failure was high; like they're planning on doing it in gym shorts. So, I'm asking what makes you think that $250 is "gym shorts" level.
What you said was 100% off the mark, and the two are 100% the same. Because we're not talking about making money off the ephemeral product, but on making money off the actual product once it's out. So maybe you can say it's a bad idea to pay $250 for a box that isn't out yet that you're trying to make a profit on by reselling before the box is out, but that has zero relation to whether or not it's a bad idea when you're trying to make a profit on it by reselling it after the box is out. And in THAT situation, which is the one we're discussing, there's no difference between "out of print" prices and any other relevant price.
This is the first really intelligent thing I've seen you write, so I don't think you're stupid. I just wanted you to defend your statement through SOME reasoning that seemed to indicate that you thought $10/pack was greater than the value OF THE ACTUAL PACK AFTER RELEASE, but now you're saying you were just saying it's riskier than paying $7/pack. I feel like that's a pretty open statement to just throw out there for public consumption, so I apologize for thinking you had something more behind it.
I hate to do this because I really hate when it's done but here is what you've done through your last posts:
1. Constructed a strawman argument.
2. Begged the question.
3. Ad Hominen'd me.
More importantly than any of that -
My initial statement was simply a word of caution. It was not an absolutist statement or prediction or evaluation of value. I will not conform to your demands to make it a numbers argument - it doesn't require it. It is supported by very simple and sound logic and I continue to stand by the assessment - people who are paying a lot for this product are putting themselves in a position of risk.
I think you are still unable to see what I'm saying clearly so here: The relationship is monotonic increasing - NOT black and white. Consider an upward sloping linear line which represents cost of a box. As you move to the right, the probability of that line being above the EV line (currently not drawn bc it's unknown) decreases at an increasing rate. You keep asking for me to quantify this when it doesn't need to be. When I refuse to quantify you try to make it black and white - it is not that either. Would you pay 500$ for a box of MM? Probably not, but why? Because risk, as you percieve it, is probably too high at that price point. You're asking me to quantify the risk equation and that's impossible. It doesn't invalidate my point or validate yours to ask me something that's impossible.
ps: Your assessment of comparing MM to Zendikar is still completely faulty. I'm not sure why you're even bothering on that point, but ok.
pps: I think you might want to take internet forums a little less seriously.
Rancored Elf will cancel your order if prices go up. Read about him and other shady vendors here.
My Trade Thread!
EDH Decks:
B Toshiro Umezawa B
W Mikaeus, the Lunarch W
G Azusa, Lost but Seeking G
UB Grimgrin, Corpse-Born BU
BGU The Mimeoplasm UGB
GUW Rubinia Soulsinger WUG
GRB Sek'Kuar, Deathkeeper BRG
The person who is taking it personally seems to be you. You tossed out an incindiary statement, and now you're saying, "Oh, no, I didn't mean anything! I'm just saying prebuying anything is a risk. I wasn't making any prediction about value!" Gee, thank you for that insight.
The difference is that MM is a limited print run, so it's unlikely to depress the value of cards by much. And if everyone is holding onto sealed boxes, MM singles might even command a premium over their originals, simply because they are harder to get. An Anthologies Goblin Grenade is worth twice as much as a regular one.