Over the medium-to-long haul most of these go up. However upon initial release they tend to be a bit overpriced and settle downwards before their eventual bottoming and recovery. It's all about that perfect window of the "not 'just-released' but rather 'recently released and now they're hitting the market'". Has Imperial Recruiter hit that window yet? SCG sold them for $200 on release, within 3 months they were $150. To get one at $100 is a good deal I think, eBay has several at the $115-$125 range), it may eventually get to $100, but will still take several months.
Some are risky, and may never recover:
Xiahou Dun: started at $150, within 4 months was $80, now sits at $20.
Karmic Guide: started at $90, within 4 months was $50, now sits at $20.
Command Tower: started at $100, within 3 months was $50, now sits at $18.
On the otherhand:
Bloodstained Mire sat at $50 for 11 months, now it's $100, all in the last few months.
Natural Order sat at $50 for 8 months, now at $80, all in the last few months.
Mana Crypt sat at $70 for 10 months, now it's $100, all in the last few months.
Demonic Tutor sat at $50 for a year and a half, now it's $190, of which about $70 of that was in the last few months.
On still another hand (I have three hands...) Karakas started at $200, within 2 months had dropped to $120, and now sits at about $100, where it has remained CONSTANT for the last 3 months. Karakas may have found its basement and may sit here at this "lowest price" for several months like Mana Crypt or Natural Order, before seeing a rise similar to these two.
Land Tax is a good example of starting high ($30), dropping to $15 in about 5 months, then recovered to $30 8 months later. Then it was unbanned in a format, spiked briefly to ~$85, and has cooled where it maintains a $45-$50 level, but my point here is BEFORE the unbanning spike, it was a case of high initial price, swift decline, then a nice recovery to its initial price where it probably would have maintained a steady upward trend, eventually exceeding its initial price, had the unbanning not caused the spike.
So, is Imperial Recruiter a start high crash-and-burner that may never recover like Karmic Guide? Will it be a slow builder like Mana Crypt, will it be a drop-then-recover Land Tax, or will it explode like Demonic Tutor? Tough to say, no one can predict the future.
I'd say $100 is a good price for what they are going for RIGHT NOW, so if you intend to play with it immediately, you're getting a jump start on it. If you don't want it to play with at this moment, or don't need it right now, or are looking at it as an investment/speculation, I think it's still on a downward trajectory before it reaches its Karakas-like STABLE basement.
By the way, heres a site to follow price history of Judge Foils (right-hand column), just click on the price of the card. Prices reflect current Star City prices. http://ark42.com/mtg/pricelist.php?p=0
The general trajectory is for them to be incredibly expensive upon release, then drop down, and then go back up again. One of the problems from a "value" standpoint is that this all takes a very long time.
It really has a lot to do with the card. Cards that are real format staples tend to recover in price quite easily (see: Onslaught Fetches, Wasteland, Confidant, Clique, etc.) Cards that are not quite staples, but have nicer art than the original foil also do well (see: Vindicate). Then there are the cards whose appeal mostly comes from EDH/Casual, and the value of the Judge Promo has a lot to do with how it stacks up against the original foil (if it exists). One of the reasons Judge Demonic Tutor/Survival of the Fittest is worth a lot is because there is no other foil (if you exclude the test print for the latter). Sol Ring was creeping up there before the FTV reprint. Maze of Ith skyrocketed before its reprint and has now come back down (SCG is selling for $199). Cards like Xiahou Dun, the One-Eyed and Karmic Guide are just not as "pimp" as the original foil/original, so I imagine they will creep back up in price slowly (never approaching the original), but it will take a little while.
I just picked one up at 105$ recently. I can however see it going down since it will only ever see play in an EDH deck it seems. But I wanted it for Animar, so I dropped the money. I really do not see it going up, especially since some of the other printings from what I understand are actually dropping down to the Judge price.
Just confirmed on Ark42, the original printing has fallen almost $100 this year and the judge has fallen $50 on record, but really more like $80
Damn so basically this is going to be a crap shoot. I'm really going to be using it for EDH so strictly non competitive. Main thing I was worried about was a functional (or a similar effect) reprint happening sometime in the future making this drop like crazy.
I don't seem them reprinting a similar effect, largely because it allows for such a huge tutoring pool. power 2 or less grabs almost any clone, plus a huge swath of creatures that get counters when they come in, etc. I think the real issue is that it doesn't see play in anything other then EDH and the original card for its price is just not in demand for EDH, so its dropping to a point where people will pick them up.
there is a monored legacy deck with it and aluren that was the reason at was way more expensive like loyal retainers even before the reprint of the retainers. Because retainers had no/to little legacy aplication after banning of survival at even before was a one of in contrast to recruiter that is a 4 of in any legacy list it plays. But the prices falls more than from normal judge foils because the judge foil increses the print run by like 50 % and not by 1-10% like other cards.
Not Monored, UR PainterStone, and, to an extent, Aluren.
i mean imperial painter and its mono red in most cases the ur painter list normally dont play recruiter they play intuition and trinket mage in that slot instead.
You'd play Recruiter in the UR; at least I did. That way, you would also splash W and play Salvagers out of the side and tutor for it. Also tutoring for trinket mage is good.
vamp tutor has no where to go but up. Its a cube/EDH/T1 staple and the only foil printing. I just traded for one for my cube about a month ago and couldnt believe it was still $50. I would snap buy 10 copies if I wanted something that was going to go up over the next year.
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Some are risky, and may never recover:
Xiahou Dun: started at $150, within 4 months was $80, now sits at $20.
Karmic Guide: started at $90, within 4 months was $50, now sits at $20.
Command Tower: started at $100, within 3 months was $50, now sits at $18.
On the otherhand:
Bloodstained Mire sat at $50 for 11 months, now it's $100, all in the last few months.
Natural Order sat at $50 for 8 months, now at $80, all in the last few months.
Mana Crypt sat at $70 for 10 months, now it's $100, all in the last few months.
Demonic Tutor sat at $50 for a year and a half, now it's $190, of which about $70 of that was in the last few months.
On still another hand (I have three hands...) Karakas started at $200, within 2 months had dropped to $120, and now sits at about $100, where it has remained CONSTANT for the last 3 months. Karakas may have found its basement and may sit here at this "lowest price" for several months like Mana Crypt or Natural Order, before seeing a rise similar to these two.
Land Tax is a good example of starting high ($30), dropping to $15 in about 5 months, then recovered to $30 8 months later. Then it was unbanned in a format, spiked briefly to ~$85, and has cooled where it maintains a $45-$50 level, but my point here is BEFORE the unbanning spike, it was a case of high initial price, swift decline, then a nice recovery to its initial price where it probably would have maintained a steady upward trend, eventually exceeding its initial price, had the unbanning not caused the spike.
So, is Imperial Recruiter a start high crash-and-burner that may never recover like Karmic Guide? Will it be a slow builder like Mana Crypt, will it be a drop-then-recover Land Tax, or will it explode like Demonic Tutor? Tough to say, no one can predict the future.
I'd say $100 is a good price for what they are going for RIGHT NOW, so if you intend to play with it immediately, you're getting a jump start on it. If you don't want it to play with at this moment, or don't need it right now, or are looking at it as an investment/speculation, I think it's still on a downward trajectory before it reaches its Karakas-like STABLE basement.
By the way, heres a site to follow price history of Judge Foils (right-hand column), just click on the price of the card. Prices reflect current Star City prices. http://ark42.com/mtg/pricelist.php?p=0
It really has a lot to do with the card. Cards that are real format staples tend to recover in price quite easily (see: Onslaught Fetches, Wasteland, Confidant, Clique, etc.) Cards that are not quite staples, but have nicer art than the original foil also do well (see: Vindicate). Then there are the cards whose appeal mostly comes from EDH/Casual, and the value of the Judge Promo has a lot to do with how it stacks up against the original foil (if it exists). One of the reasons Judge Demonic Tutor/Survival of the Fittest is worth a lot is because there is no other foil (if you exclude the test print for the latter). Sol Ring was creeping up there before the FTV reprint. Maze of Ith skyrocketed before its reprint and has now come back down (SCG is selling for $199). Cards like Xiahou Dun, the One-Eyed and Karmic Guide are just not as "pimp" as the original foil/original, so I imagine they will creep back up in price slowly (never approaching the original), but it will take a little while.
Just confirmed on Ark42, the original printing has fallen almost $100 this year and the judge has fallen $50 on record, but really more like $80
EDH Decks:
B Toshiro Umezawa B
W Mikaeus, the Lunarch W
G Azusa, Lost but Seeking G
UB Grimgrin, Corpse-Born BU
BGU The Mimeoplasm UGB
GUW Rubinia Soulsinger WUG
GRB Sek'Kuar, Deathkeeper BRG
I think Ima hold off for now, cheers guys
EDH Decks:
B Toshiro Umezawa B
W Mikaeus, the Lunarch W
G Azusa, Lost but Seeking G
UB Grimgrin, Corpse-Born BU
BGU The Mimeoplasm UGB
GUW Rubinia Soulsinger WUG
GRB Sek'Kuar, Deathkeeper BRG
People will pay a huge premium for the P3K version, though, so while it may be down a little, expect it to hold much of its value.
Not Monored, UR PainterStone, and, to an extent, Aluren.
Command Tower got slapped down because of the Commander's Arsenal reprint. I expect it would be a lot more expensive if not for that.
I expect the Recruiter to stay around $100 or so for quite a while, as there's plenty of demand for them.
EDH Decks:
RBG Kresh, the Bloodbraided RBG
GW Rhys, the Redeemed GW
Legacy:
RGW Enchantress RGW
You'd play Recruiter in the UR; at least I did. That way, you would also splash W and play Salvagers out of the side and tutor for it. Also tutoring for trinket mage is good.
Vampiric Tutor
Crucible of Worlds
?
I have a fun Ob Nixilis EDH deck that I've been foiling out. I need one of the above two cards and then I'd be at the 90% foil'ed point.
So--- would you expect one or both of them to rise or fall? Stay stable?
Thanks
Crucible is new, so I would expect it to drop a fair bit.