I don't quite know Craig Wescoe's reputation on financial matters, but he made the same prediction in his article on TCGPlayer today.
Never heard of him, but that's interesting. BOLD, in fact.
Interestingly, I checked the price this morning and it was easily obtainable for $17 (having slipped over the past week from $20). Now, 8 hours later, it looks like $20 or even $25 is the going rate. I wonder if that prediction caused some speculative buying? If so, it could become a self-fulfilling prophecy. At least for a while. Eventually, a market of this size will reach equilibrium again. I'm reminded of the hype behind, uhhhh.... dang. I can't even remember the card. It was a couple sets ago, and somebody "big" said it was going to be huge, and then it was.... for a week. Now, well, I can't even remember what card it is, that's how wrong they were.
I think pwner's comparison to the red Titan is a good one and would like to see him extrapolate it more.
You might be thinking of Daybreak Ranger, and (from memory) Pat Chapin.
While I won't waste anyone's time attempting to define the playability of cards like Thundermaw and Thragtusk, I'd say their prices are heading down, not necessarily this week, but by November I'd expect them both to be going for 50% or less of their current price.
The problem is that there's nothing else in the set to absorb value. It's a core set- there's not a lot of "hidden" value here due to the simpler cards. If the card sees extensive play, it'll skyrocket.
I would compare Hellkite to Inferno Titan for the following reasons:
It's a bomb level creature @ 5 mana (double red) but easily playable on turn 4 or even earlier due to allied color with green. With 5 toughness no flying creature in standard that sees play currently can take it on and dismember sees very little play so it's tough to kill. On hitting the field it immediately impacts the board in a similar way to Inferno Titan just in a less consistent way but with room for more upside. I played ramp consistently and playing Inferno Titan was always somewhat of a gamble but either way you knew you could count on the 3 damage to up to 3 targets. This is similar in that you'll hit all their fliers and maybe kill a few if they are lingering souls (which is heavily played at the moment) or other spirit tokens and even if you don't kill their blockers, you're tapping them down (because nobody plays with reach in Standard right now), so you're going to get in for 5 on the player. In a lot of ways it's probably going to outclass Inferno Titan actually.
Inferno Titan suffered the problem of having existed in two sets and also having been a promo before it found its home in Ramp as a 4 of (and later 2 of). This card will immediately fall into a deck (probably 3 decks actually, Naya Pod, RG Aggro, possibly Ramp, and possibly Grixis).
On top of all these factors is the main one - bombs are about to change entirely. Titans, Sphynx, and Wurmcoil are leaving which leaves a giant void at the 5+ drop range in a meta full of 1/1 fliers. This card is just begging to fit that spot.
I can understand people's counter argument: "but it's not worth 30$," and my answer would be "no card is worth 30$" but how many people want to open a box of M13 to be given a 40% chance to open ONE Hellkite when you can just pay the price of a box and get 3 or 4 of them guaranteed? The set is bad enough that people are going to make that choice and that drives the price of Hellkite up on the demand side while people opening unsatisfactory boxes with few chase rares/mythics wanting more return on their quality cards pushes up the price on the supply side.
Ergo, 30$ card for a while.
On top of this we are seeing power red cards in the past 2 sets that compliment this card extremely well - Bonfire of the Damned and Huntmaster of the Fells - which are the most expensive cards in their respective sets. So really the argument that "red is weak" is no longer valid. Red may not be the core of Ramp, RedGreen Aggro, or Naya but without the red components those decks wouldn't be competitive.
On top of all of these things it has the capacity to instant kill planeswalkers. Which makes me sort of sad because I've been having a great time with my junkwalker deck.
(I'm not even a T2 player or so, but I think I do have a fair understanding of the game; but nonetheless, take everything with a big grain of salt)
On the Thragtusk <-> Vorapede issue:
From what I understand, the 2GGG to 4G difference is huge. The latter will potentially see play in all green-encompassing two or three color archetypes (provided, they are viable), while the latter just says 'Go play mono-green, or this card sucks to hell and back again'. I am not sure whether monogreen is viable, but judging from the $3 price tag on the Vorapede, I would say, not very much.
Also, the bounce effects like Snag are really very hot as of now, and Vorapede simply does nothing to that threat of 'removal', while Thragtusk actually begs to be bounced, if any opponent is stupid enough to do so.
More often than not, these small things decide whether a card is playable or not, and I do believe that Thragtusk does win out vs the Vorapede by a fair margin. Add in the fact that it does somewhat really threaten a currently popular archetype, as well as the hype (which drives the prices quite a bit), I do think the $10+ price tag is somewhat warranted.
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^ spot on - splashable and vapor snag proof / exile proof are huge bonuses. On top of that is the fact that Thragtusk fits in existing shells perfectly (just like Thundermaw) and compliments the following strategies: pod, green sun, resto angel, cloudshift along with numerous others.
funny, i thought the power level of sublime archangel (5/4 swinging alone on turn 5 vs. swing for 5 on turn 5 with extra exalted bonus cancelling out damage and tap effect) was similar to the hellkite except the angel also has impact immediately on board if there is another creature to attack with.
funny, i thought the power level of sublime archangel (5/4 swinging alone on turn 5 vs. swing for 5 on turn 5 with extra exalted bonus cancelling out damage and tap effect) was similar to the hellkite except the angel also has impact immediately on board if there is another creature to attack with.
From my point of view you can't compare the Angel vs Dragon. You won't play Archangel to swing alone... She exists to push aggro weenie's and tokens.
I agree with the second part of your post. From my understanding I'd read it like: "Archangel hit's the board 1 turn earlyier and affects the bord more with existing creatures".Completely agree here.
Just don't compare two completely different creatures. It's not White Titan vs Red Titan...
Well I don't feel like arguing because I simply can't agree that red is weak or that tapping flyers isn't relevant so I'll just give my prediction:
Thundermaw will be the most expensive card in the set.
Sublime Archangel will be the top dog of the set.
Thundermaw is a very solid card. However comparing it to Inferno titan or Baneslayer is just absurd.
Inferno Titan is more versatile because it helps you when you are behind on the board which the hell kite does not do. It arguably also hits harder as it can finish an opponent with one swing.
Again Baneslayer angel helps you when you are behind on the board. Also when it swings there's a potential for a 10 point life swing making it almost impossible to race and it usually dominates any combat situation. At the time Baneslayer was in print there was a Tier 1 U/W control deck. Right now RDW, the best fit for Thundermaw, is Tier 3 at best.
1. How does "untapping with archangel end the game"? It can be chumped all day long or your exalted guy can be chumped all day.
2. Angel is considerably worse when you have an empty board. Thundermaw is not.
3. Inferno Titan can be chump blocked. Thundermaw cannot (90% of the time).
4. Baneslayer has summoning sickness.. Thundermaw does not. (I never made this comparison anyway but he's about as close as we've seen before for a 5 drop).
5. RDW isn't where this guy fits in at all. Red is the defacto strongest splash color right now as more than 3 decks use it. All of those decks get to 5 mana on turns 3 or 4. This guy will shine in those decks.
/shrug. Card jumped 8 dollars in 24 hours. We'll see what Angel does. It's only home is white black exalted or possibly blue splash for invisible stalker. Otherwise it just won't connect any damage to the player and that's a major weakness.
The problem is that there's nothing else in the set to absorb value. It's a core set- there's not a lot of "hidden" value here due to the simpler cards. If the card sees extensive play, it'll skyrocket.
Nice post. Yeah, the Saviors Syndrome. If there's only a few sought after cards (and M13 is quickly looking that way) they draw value from the rest of the singles. I have some hope that a few decent uncommons is going to be enough to keep the set from fully going in this direction, but we'll have to see. At the very least, it's already pretty lopsided. The 25c crap bin rare list is growing by the day while the top 4 or 5 cards all seem to be holding steady or rising.
Good posts pwner, agreed on pretty much everything, except I don't see red as very prominent in Standard right now. I understand it's splashed in some top decks, but you gotta admit, it's not the top colour, or even in the top 3 really. Which means it's valid to say red is relatively weak at the moment. Without the brutal power of Bonfire, and its ridiculously splashable nature, red might almost be forgotten right now.
splashable and vapor snag proof / exile proof are huge bonuses. On top of that is the fact that Thragtusk fits in existing shells perfectly (just like Thundermaw) and compliments the following strategies: pod, green sun, resto angel, cloudshift along with numerous others.
You've just restated all the points I made in my comparison, except you left out any point in favour of Vorapede (and there are many). I mentioned that Tusk is splashable, and I mentioned that it's better in blink-heavy and bounce-heavy environment. As for it being better with "green sun", no. If anything, that honour goes to Vorapede by far. As for Resto, I already mentioned blink effects, same thing with Cloudshift. So really the only thing you brought up in your post that I didn't is the synergy with Pod, which is true, but it's not like Vorapede doesn't have that synergy as well. I feel my comparison was complete (and more objective).
funny, i thought the power level of sublime archangel was similar to the Hellkite except the angel also has impact immediately on board if there is another creature to attack with.
1) How does Hellkite not immediately impact the board? Not only does it have haste, but it has a potent "enters play" ability. You can't find many creatures that immediately impact the board more.
2) "if there is another creature to attack with" is not a small drawback, at all.
Your post made me notice another reason the Archangel may be more potent, and that is that it costs 4, and not 5. While an obvious fact, it's worth noting. There's a high correlation between a card costing less, and it being worth more. I doubt this factor is going to be the deciding one, but it's not insignificant.
1. How does "untapping with archangel end the game"? It can be chumped all day long or your exalted guy can be chumped all day.
2. Angel is considerably worse when you have an empty board. Thundermaw is not.
3. Inferno Titan can be chump blocked. Thundermaw cannot (90% of the time).
4. Baneslayer has summoning sickness.. Thundermaw does not. (I never made this comparison anyway but he's about as close as we've seen before for a 5 drop).
5. RDW isn't where this guy fits in at all. Red is the defacto strongest splash color right now as more than 3 decks use it. All of those decks get to 5 mana on turns 3 or 4. This guy will shine in those decks.
/shrug. Card jumped 8 dollars in 24 hours. We'll see what Angel does. It's only home is white black exalted or possibly blue splash for invisible stalker. Otherwise it just won't connect any damage to the player and that's a major weakness.
1. Turn 1 Avacyn Pilgrim/birds, Turn two Silverblade Paladin, Turn Three Angel, Turn four Revenged of the Hunted attack for 26 flying trample damage
or Turn 1 Avacyn Pilgrim/birds, Turn two Ajani, Turn three Angel, Turn Four Wolfir Silverheart attack for 22.
No decks have a constant stream of flying chump blockers
2. Angel belongs in a creature deck where it will rarely have an empty board
3. Hard to chump block a creature that can arc trial before blockers every turn
4. First strike and life link is better than come into play falter and haste
5. RR is not the best splash. In RG Aggro Wolfir Silverheart and Zealous Conscripts are arguably better.
Conscripts is such a powerful red card. Splashable, even. And look at it's pathetic $1.50 pricetag.
Reminds me of Hellrider from the previous set (also $1.50). And other "5 star" red rares that are super powerful and relevant to the metagame but never worth anything. Hopefully Thundermaw won't follow them!
EDIT: Kirblar (below)... agreed. Almost like it was made to. Not that red/Hellrider needed to be nerfed, or that white/Angels needed more support... but apparently Wizards had their reasons!
Conscripts is such a powerful red card. Splashable, even. And look at it's pathetic $1.50 pricetag.
Reminds me of Hellrider from the previous set (also $1.50). And other "5 star" red rares that are super powerful and relevant to the metagame but never worth anything. Hopefully Thundermaw won't follow them!
Resto Angel ended up hurting Hellrider really badly.
If the store owner says that I can't trade in the premises, I'll just go outside. If he says that I can't trade within 10m of his premises, I'll go to 11 meters. If he says that he doesn't want to see me trading, I will put a basket over his head and continue trading.
Yes, he's a local legend. He's only known to take his clothes off before he goes into the Ladies' Lockerroom. Nobody knows what he does in there because he's invisible, but it's almost certainly tons of masturbating.
(previous tallies are located in the following posts: 2, 21, 59)
After more than a week, some trends are showing up:
1) Ajani, Caller of the Pride (27) / /
2) Thundermaw Hellkite (22) / /
3) Sublime Archangel (21) / /
4) Liliana of the Dark Realms (20) / /
5) Thragtusk (13) / /
6) Jace, Memory Adept (7.5) / /
7) Vampire Nocturnus (7) / /
8) Akroma's Memorial (6) / /
9) Garruk, Primal Hunter (6) / /
10) Master of the Pearl Trident (5.5) / /
11) Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker (5) / /
12) Yeva, Nature's Herald (4.75) / /
13) Omniscience (4.5) / /
14) Talrand, Sky Summoner (4) / /
15) Chandra, the Firebrand (3.5) / /
The card's most recent move is on right. means no movement. is a card that wasn't on the list last update. This is the update's hottest mover. (#) is price in CND incl. shipping here.
As Ajani cools a bit to $27 (but still a ways out in front), Thragtusk moves up to $13. So instead of a "fab 4" in the set, it looks like we have a "high 5". Nothing else comes close, which is worrying. In any case, Thundermaw has received an important endorsement yesterday and has since jumped up five bucks to land at $22, and could be headed for 25. Sublime doesn't disappoint though, looking strong at $21 and 3rd slot while Liliana takes her turn cooling a bit this update. Jace gained a little ground against the stagnant Memorial and Nocturnus. Master of the Pearl Trident doesn't look very strong at $6 but might be better suited at $5 for now. I wonder if it will drop to $3 or less once the Legacy players all have their copies? Or will it hold value in the long term, as one of the best Lords ever printed? Bolas looks stale, Yeva is holding up but as a rare and a Legend may have trouble staying at $5 for long, although it should be a casual staple for years if nothing else. Omniscience has a short future on the tally, if you ask me. While not a reprint, I don't think it's going to spawn a deck of its own, or even fit into an existing deck. It'll probably find itself in the casual realm, but with such a high mana cost, not widely used or sought-after. Talrand seems to move briskly at $4 and I think could still break through as a deck in itself with all the support the "instants and sorceries" theme blue has been getting. Chandra flounders at the bottom of the list. When it drops off, Hellkite will be the only red card in the set you're happy to open.
A couple comments about lower value rares. Redirect has doubled (from a mere 50c, but still) in the last couple weeks. Blue creature-based decks that need a different answer to Rancor than Unsummon, perhaps? Sunpetal Grove is selling quickly and may actually jump onto the tally if the price continues to rise. Green and white decks are popular and should be strong through the release of Ravnica, and potentially beyond if they get any support at all.
Delver isn't even the best Restoration Angel deck. She's just too good not to play in a deck that plays white and beats down. I don't think Angel's price is going anywhere.
I also don't think Talrand is very good. I'd dump my copies now. 2/2 Drake tokens are going to be good enough with anthems that building around him is probably just not going to be as good as playing his Invocation in a Spirit token deck.
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Thanks to Gabgabdevo for the awesome sig image!
I'm always looking for foil Madcap Skills and Ghitu Fire-Eater, [trade thread link forthcoming]
Talrand feels really weak right now and they've introduced enough sufficiently fast/powerful cards that I cannot imagine him having a home in Standard. For casual play and limited he seems super fun though.
Not sure why people are doubting Talrand. And what's the point of dumping copies when his price is low right now begin with?
Delver is gonna have a hard time dealing with Duress (bout friggin time), and the new Naya targets (like Thundermaw and Thragtusk). With so many cantrips, Talrand is the only guy capable of going over the top of Naya Pod. To me that's huge, as I expect Naya to be very dominant these last few months of Scars. Being able to spit out tokens will be a big deal if Rancor starts to see heavy play, which it will. There are too many attractive targets for Rancor not to change the meta, and Delver's weakness has always been its inability to regain board position once it's lost it.
Talrand shores those weaknesses. Yes, he's "vulnerable to removal", and being legendary hurts him with image still running around, but it's a legitimate "must kill". Otherwise, he's able to steal games midrange in the same way Delver can steal games early.
He'll never be too expensive, but I wouldn't underestimate him as a powerful card. And I sure as hell wouldn't trade him now.
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Modern
Dredge, Evo-Chord, U/G Faeries, Living End, Something New
When I buy boxed product I always evaluate all the cards I own and sell off the ones that will drop. Talrand could easily go from 9-12$ for a playset as it currently is to next to nothing. Most rares do after a few weeks so you might as well dump everything you won't immediately use and then get it again for vastly cheaper after a few weeks.
Personally I don't feel he has a role in standard. While you dirdle around making 2/2 fliers (with summoning sickness no less) you've probably already been killed by a 12/1 inkmoth nexus or a bird with a sword of war and peace. The format is too fast for him and the phyrexian spells that you could use on turn 4 with him have probably been used on turns 1 and 2.
On a side note, pre orders are falling through for Thundermaw Hellkite. I had ordered 4 at $68 shipped (along with 63 other people) and all those pre orders are now being rescinded. Outerworldcards is not to be trusted and I'm giving them the biggest negative review possible.
When I buy boxed product I always evaluate all the cards I own and sell off the ones that will drop. Talrand could easily go from 9-12$ for a playset as it currently is to next to nothing. Most rares do after a few weeks so you might as well dump everything you won't immediately use and then get it again for vastly cheaper after a few weeks.
On a side note, pre orders are falling through for Thundermaw Hellkite. I had ordered 4 at $68 shipped (along with 63 other people) and all those pre orders are now being rescinded. Outerworldcards is not to be trusted and I'm giving them the biggest negative review possible.
Actually, Talrand is currently $16 a playset, so $4 each. That sucks about the preorders on Hellkite. I abhor companies that try to eek out every cent they can when overall they are making a big profit. Personally, I don't see Hellkite as being so good, unless RTR has no good removal (yes, I saw Mr. Wescoe's article).
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
When I buy boxed product I always evaluate all the cards I own and sell off the ones that will drop. Talrand could easily go from 9-12$ for a playset as it currently is to next to nothing. Most rares do after a few weeks so you might as well dump everything you won't immediately use and then get it again for vastly cheaper after a few weeks.
Personally I don't feel he has a role in standard. While you dirdle around making 2/2 fliers (with summoning sickness no less) you've probably already been killed by a 12/1 inkmoth nexus or a bird with a sword of war and peace. The format is too fast for him and the phyrexian spells that you could use on turn 4 with him have probably been used on turns 1 and 2. .
You don't have to "dirdle" around with flyers to make him useful. It's his ability to to turn a deck already filled with card advantage into another form of advantages on the board. I'm not talking about Talrand in some random homebrew. I'm talking about as a one or two of in Delver, as he can be more stable than Geist (which does nothing against a stable board, which is getting more prevalent with Cavern around), and is certainly craftier on defense, and incredibly versatile. So I'm not sure what you mean by 'summoning sickness', since any flyers produced after casting effectively have flash.
I realize if you're a store owner, it's different, but for us regular joes who don't have time to dump and buy while paying attention to trends, there's no reason not to keep one if you pull one. It's a very good card, and I can see why Gerry Thompson is looking to test it in Delver.
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Dredge, Evo-Chord, U/G Faeries, Living End, Something New
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Never heard of him, but that's interesting. BOLD, in fact.
Interestingly, I checked the price this morning and it was easily obtainable for $17 (having slipped over the past week from $20). Now, 8 hours later, it looks like $20 or even $25 is the going rate. I wonder if that prediction caused some speculative buying? If so, it could become a self-fulfilling prophecy. At least for a while. Eventually, a market of this size will reach equilibrium again. I'm reminded of the hype behind, uhhhh.... dang. I can't even remember the card. It was a couple sets ago, and somebody "big" said it was going to be huge, and then it was.... for a week. Now, well, I can't even remember what card it is, that's how wrong they were.
I think pwner's comparison to the red Titan is a good one and would like to see him extrapolate it more.
.
While I won't waste anyone's time attempting to define the playability of cards like Thundermaw and Thragtusk, I'd say their prices are heading down, not necessarily this week, but by November I'd expect them both to be going for 50% or less of their current price.
Current post- Grand Prix KC Modern Postmortem (7/7/13)
I would compare Hellkite to Inferno Titan for the following reasons:
It's a bomb level creature @ 5 mana (double red) but easily playable on turn 4 or even earlier due to allied color with green. With 5 toughness no flying creature in standard that sees play currently can take it on and dismember sees very little play so it's tough to kill. On hitting the field it immediately impacts the board in a similar way to Inferno Titan just in a less consistent way but with room for more upside. I played ramp consistently and playing Inferno Titan was always somewhat of a gamble but either way you knew you could count on the 3 damage to up to 3 targets. This is similar in that you'll hit all their fliers and maybe kill a few if they are lingering souls (which is heavily played at the moment) or other spirit tokens and even if you don't kill their blockers, you're tapping them down (because nobody plays with reach in Standard right now), so you're going to get in for 5 on the player. In a lot of ways it's probably going to outclass Inferno Titan actually.
Inferno Titan suffered the problem of having existed in two sets and also having been a promo before it found its home in Ramp as a 4 of (and later 2 of). This card will immediately fall into a deck (probably 3 decks actually, Naya Pod, RG Aggro, possibly Ramp, and possibly Grixis).
On top of all these factors is the main one - bombs are about to change entirely. Titans, Sphynx, and Wurmcoil are leaving which leaves a giant void at the 5+ drop range in a meta full of 1/1 fliers. This card is just begging to fit that spot.
I can understand people's counter argument: "but it's not worth 30$," and my answer would be "no card is worth 30$" but how many people want to open a box of M13 to be given a 40% chance to open ONE Hellkite when you can just pay the price of a box and get 3 or 4 of them guaranteed? The set is bad enough that people are going to make that choice and that drives the price of Hellkite up on the demand side while people opening unsatisfactory boxes with few chase rares/mythics wanting more return on their quality cards pushes up the price on the supply side.
Ergo, 30$ card for a while.
On top of this we are seeing power red cards in the past 2 sets that compliment this card extremely well - Bonfire of the Damned and Huntmaster of the Fells - which are the most expensive cards in their respective sets. So really the argument that "red is weak" is no longer valid. Red may not be the core of Ramp, RedGreen Aggro, or Naya but without the red components those decks wouldn't be competitive.
On top of all of these things it has the capacity to instant kill planeswalkers. Which makes me sort of sad because I've been having a great time with my junkwalker deck.
On the Thragtusk <-> Vorapede issue:
From what I understand, the 2GGG to 4G difference is huge. The latter will potentially see play in all green-encompassing two or three color archetypes (provided, they are viable), while the latter just says 'Go play mono-green, or this card sucks to hell and back again'. I am not sure whether monogreen is viable, but judging from the $3 price tag on the Vorapede, I would say, not very much.
Also, the bounce effects like Snag are really very hot as of now, and Vorapede simply does nothing to that threat of 'removal', while Thragtusk actually begs to be bounced, if any opponent is stupid enough to do so.
More often than not, these small things decide whether a card is playable or not, and I do believe that Thragtusk does win out vs the Vorapede by a fair margin. Add in the fact that it does somewhat really threaten a currently popular archetype, as well as the hype (which drives the prices quite a bit), I do think the $10+ price tag is somewhat warranted.
—Neerdiv, fallowsage
From my point of view you can't compare the Angel vs Dragon. You won't play Archangel to swing alone... She exists to push aggro weenie's and tokens.
I agree with the second part of your post. From my understanding I'd read it like: "Archangel hit's the board 1 turn earlyier and affects the bord more with existing creatures".Completely agree here.
Just don't compare two completely different creatures. It's not White Titan vs Red Titan...
Sublime Archangel will be the top dog of the set.
Thundermaw is a very solid card. However comparing it to Inferno titan or Baneslayer is just absurd.
Inferno Titan is more versatile because it helps you when you are behind on the board which the hell kite does not do. It arguably also hits harder as it can finish an opponent with one swing.
Again Baneslayer angel helps you when you are behind on the board. Also when it swings there's a potential for a 10 point life swing making it almost impossible to race and it usually dominates any combat situation. At the time Baneslayer was in print there was a Tier 1 U/W control deck. Right now RDW, the best fit for Thundermaw, is Tier 3 at best.
1. How does "untapping with archangel end the game"? It can be chumped all day long or your exalted guy can be chumped all day.
2. Angel is considerably worse when you have an empty board. Thundermaw is not.
3. Inferno Titan can be chump blocked. Thundermaw cannot (90% of the time).
4. Baneslayer has summoning sickness.. Thundermaw does not. (I never made this comparison anyway but he's about as close as we've seen before for a 5 drop).
5. RDW isn't where this guy fits in at all. Red is the defacto strongest splash color right now as more than 3 decks use it. All of those decks get to 5 mana on turns 3 or 4. This guy will shine in those decks.
/shrug. Card jumped 8 dollars in 24 hours. We'll see what Angel does. It's only home is white black exalted or possibly blue splash for invisible stalker. Otherwise it just won't connect any damage to the player and that's a major weakness.
That's the one, thank you
75c card now, even with all the Angels making it more relevant.
Nice post. Yeah, the Saviors Syndrome. If there's only a few sought after cards (and M13 is quickly looking that way) they draw value from the rest of the singles. I have some hope that a few decent uncommons is going to be enough to keep the set from fully going in this direction, but we'll have to see. At the very least, it's already pretty lopsided. The 25c crap bin rare list is growing by the day while the top 4 or 5 cards all seem to be holding steady or rising.
Good posts pwner, agreed on pretty much everything, except I don't see red as very prominent in Standard right now. I understand it's splashed in some top decks, but you gotta admit, it's not the top colour, or even in the top 3 really. Which means it's valid to say red is relatively weak at the moment. Without the brutal power of Bonfire, and its ridiculously splashable nature, red might almost be forgotten right now.
You've just restated all the points I made in my comparison, except you left out any point in favour of Vorapede (and there are many). I mentioned that Tusk is splashable, and I mentioned that it's better in blink-heavy and bounce-heavy environment. As for it being better with "green sun", no. If anything, that honour goes to Vorapede by far. As for Resto, I already mentioned blink effects, same thing with Cloudshift. So really the only thing you brought up in your post that I didn't is the synergy with Pod, which is true, but it's not like Vorapede doesn't have that synergy as well. I feel my comparison was complete (and more objective).
1) How does Hellkite not immediately impact the board? Not only does it have haste, but it has a potent "enters play" ability. You can't find many creatures that immediately impact the board more.
2) "if there is another creature to attack with" is not a small drawback, at all.
Your post made me notice another reason the Archangel may be more potent, and that is that it costs 4, and not 5. While an obvious fact, it's worth noting. There's a high correlation between a card costing less, and it being worth more. I doubt this factor is going to be the deciding one, but it's not insignificant.
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1. Turn 1 Avacyn Pilgrim/birds, Turn two Silverblade Paladin, Turn Three Angel, Turn four Revenged of the Hunted attack for 26 flying trample damage
or Turn 1 Avacyn Pilgrim/birds, Turn two Ajani, Turn three Angel, Turn Four Wolfir Silverheart attack for 22.
No decks have a constant stream of flying chump blockers
2. Angel belongs in a creature deck where it will rarely have an empty board
3. Hard to chump block a creature that can arc trial before blockers every turn
4. First strike and life link is better than come into play falter and haste
5. RR is not the best splash. In RG Aggro Wolfir Silverheart and Zealous Conscripts are arguably better.
Reminds me of Hellrider from the previous set (also $1.50). And other "5 star" red rares that are super powerful and relevant to the metagame but never worth anything. Hopefully Thundermaw won't follow them!
EDIT: Kirblar (below)... agreed. Almost like it was made to. Not that red/Hellrider needed to be nerfed, or that white/Angels needed more support... but apparently Wizards had their reasons!
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Resto Angel ended up hurting Hellrider really badly.
Current post- Grand Prix KC Modern Postmortem (7/7/13)
After more than a week, some trends are showing up:
1) Ajani, Caller of the Pride (27) / /
2) Thundermaw Hellkite (22) / /
3) Sublime Archangel (21) / /
4) Liliana of the Dark Realms (20) / /
5) Thragtusk (13) / /
6) Jace, Memory Adept (7.5) / /
7) Vampire Nocturnus (7) / /
8) Akroma's Memorial (6) / /
9) Garruk, Primal Hunter (6) / /
10) Master of the Pearl Trident (5.5) / /
11) Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker (5) / /
12) Yeva, Nature's Herald (4.75) / /
13) Omniscience (4.5) / /
14) Talrand, Sky Summoner (4) / /
15) Chandra, the Firebrand (3.5) / /
The card's most recent move is on right. means no movement. is a card that wasn't on the list last update. This is the update's hottest mover. (#) is price in CND incl. shipping here.
As Ajani cools a bit to $27 (but still a ways out in front), Thragtusk moves up to $13. So instead of a "fab 4" in the set, it looks like we have a "high 5". Nothing else comes close, which is worrying. In any case, Thundermaw has received an important endorsement yesterday and has since jumped up five bucks to land at $22, and could be headed for 25. Sublime doesn't disappoint though, looking strong at $21 and 3rd slot while Liliana takes her turn cooling a bit this update. Jace gained a little ground against the stagnant Memorial and Nocturnus. Master of the Pearl Trident doesn't look very strong at $6 but might be better suited at $5 for now. I wonder if it will drop to $3 or less once the Legacy players all have their copies? Or will it hold value in the long term, as one of the best Lords ever printed? Bolas looks stale, Yeva is holding up but as a rare and a Legend may have trouble staying at $5 for long, although it should be a casual staple for years if nothing else. Omniscience has a short future on the tally, if you ask me. While not a reprint, I don't think it's going to spawn a deck of its own, or even fit into an existing deck. It'll probably find itself in the casual realm, but with such a high mana cost, not widely used or sought-after. Talrand seems to move briskly at $4 and I think could still break through as a deck in itself with all the support the "instants and sorceries" theme blue has been getting. Chandra flounders at the bottom of the list. When it drops off, Hellkite will be the only red card in the set you're happy to open.
A couple comments about lower value rares. Redirect has doubled (from a mere 50c, but still) in the last couple weeks. Blue creature-based decks that need a different answer to Rancor than Unsummon, perhaps? Sunpetal Grove is selling quickly and may actually jump onto the tally if the price continues to rise. Green and white decks are popular and should be strong through the release of Ravnica, and potentially beyond if they get any support at all.
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I also don't think Talrand is very good. I'd dump my copies now. 2/2 Drake tokens are going to be good enough with anthems that building around him is probably just not going to be as good as playing his Invocation in a Spirit token deck.
Thanks to Gabgabdevo for the awesome sig image!
I'm always looking for foil Madcap Skills and Ghitu Fire-Eater, [trade thread link forthcoming]
Delver is gonna have a hard time dealing with Duress (bout friggin time), and the new Naya targets (like Thundermaw and Thragtusk). With so many cantrips, Talrand is the only guy capable of going over the top of Naya Pod. To me that's huge, as I expect Naya to be very dominant these last few months of Scars. Being able to spit out tokens will be a big deal if Rancor starts to see heavy play, which it will. There are too many attractive targets for Rancor not to change the meta, and Delver's weakness has always been its inability to regain board position once it's lost it.
Talrand shores those weaknesses. Yes, he's "vulnerable to removal", and being legendary hurts him with image still running around, but it's a legitimate "must kill". Otherwise, he's able to steal games midrange in the same way Delver can steal games early.
He'll never be too expensive, but I wouldn't underestimate him as a powerful card. And I sure as hell wouldn't trade him now.
Modern
Dredge, Evo-Chord, U/G Faeries, Living End, Something New
Personally I don't feel he has a role in standard. While you dirdle around making 2/2 fliers (with summoning sickness no less) you've probably already been killed by a 12/1 inkmoth nexus or a bird with a sword of war and peace. The format is too fast for him and the phyrexian spells that you could use on turn 4 with him have probably been used on turns 1 and 2.
On a side note, pre orders are falling through for Thundermaw Hellkite. I had ordered 4 at $68 shipped (along with 63 other people) and all those pre orders are now being rescinded. Outerworldcards is not to be trusted and I'm giving them the biggest negative review possible.
Actually, Talrand is currently $16 a playset, so $4 each. That sucks about the preorders on Hellkite. I abhor companies that try to eek out every cent they can when overall they are making a big profit. Personally, I don't see Hellkite as being so good, unless RTR has no good removal (yes, I saw Mr. Wescoe's article).
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)You don't have to "dirdle" around with flyers to make him useful. It's his ability to to turn a deck already filled with card advantage into another form of advantages on the board. I'm not talking about Talrand in some random homebrew. I'm talking about as a one or two of in Delver, as he can be more stable than Geist (which does nothing against a stable board, which is getting more prevalent with Cavern around), and is certainly craftier on defense, and incredibly versatile. So I'm not sure what you mean by 'summoning sickness', since any flyers produced after casting effectively have flash.
I realize if you're a store owner, it's different, but for us regular joes who don't have time to dump and buy while paying attention to trends, there's no reason not to keep one if you pull one. It's a very good card, and I can see why Gerry Thompson is looking to test it in Delver.
Modern
Dredge, Evo-Chord, U/G Faeries, Living End, Something New