You do realize that Innistrad was one of the most successful blocks ever and it didn't need fetches or shocks to sell right?
You can't have shocks and fetches in the same standard format as stated by another poster. It is just too good. So we would need atleast 2 years for allied fetches...if they actually want to reprint them at all.
and you realize that RtR is way more popular than innistrad..
reverse the two.. RtR then Innistrad... new players would quit in droves.
and explain to me why we can't have the two? we have them in every other format.
why not make standard more like modern... that way players will transition without any need for expensive lands.
and you realize that RtR is way more popular than innistrad..
What makes you think this? I haven't heard any info about sales for RtR. I'm pretty sure I read that Innistrad broke some sales records.
and explain to me why we can't have the two? we have them in every other format.
why not make standard more like modern... that way players will transition without any need for expensive lands.
A couple points here. Making Standard like Modern is not a good goal at all. The two are different formats and should be treated as such. Remember their previous attempt at Extended? That failed hard because among other reasons, it ended up consisting of slightly modified Standard decks and little else.
Speaking of Standard, you have to keep in mind that it is still VASTLY more popular than Modern. And as far as I know, Modern isn't even as popular as Legacy. Yeah, Modern is a growing format, but it isn't quite there yet. With all the continuing bannings, the format has clearly not settled down. Also, Wizards has said multiple times that they don't particularly like having fetchlands in Standard because it puts the game on pause way too often.
All this means that there is no need to warp Standard in order to make Modern more appealing. This is why I said they won't reprint allied fetches until a set (or block) requires them.
and you realize that RtR is way more popular than innistrad..
reverse the two.. RtR then Innistrad... new players would quit in droves.
um no...Innistrad and RtR are very close in popularity, if anything Innistrad was more popular. Consider this, what do you think casual players like more (remember they are the biggest market in MTG): vampires/werewolves or lands that hurt you when you play them? The answer is pretty obvious.
and explain to me why we can't have the two? we have them in every other format.
why not make standard more like modern... that way players will transition without any need for expensive lands.
You do realize that this would increase the shuffling amount and general length of games, Wizards does not like long games in standard. If we make standard like modern, what is the point in having modern?
Every recent block has been the largest ever seller. So Innistrad block is currently the highest selling block ever. RTR block isn't finished yet. As a set, RTR outsold INN. I somehow doubt DKA will finish up as a bigger seller than GTC.
On the reprints, this is a surprise. I had certainly underestimated Wizards' ruthlessness in bringing down the price of the key mana fixing for modern.
I have previously said anything under $10 is a win when buying shocks. Now, I'd wait for DGM. There's room to move in the $6-$10 price. $6 is a possibility for some shocks, though not for long. I would be surprised if any shocks hold over $10 between now and October.
Shocks are still a buy at under $10 IMO, however there is a fair level of reprint risk here. I had originally figured a four year hold period would yield nice profits. This was on the assumption that (a) with four years between gold sets there's little chance of a reprint in that time, and (b) they would reprint other things in any future modern masters, given the volume of shocks they have just added.
Now I am wondering if any price above $15 would provide a trigger for wizards to print them again, out of block sequence if need be.
I now think the ideal hold time on shocks if two rather than four years. Any longer and your risk of being hit by a reprint will rise sharply.
I don't think that it's all that likely that fetches will be reprinted for at least 2 more years. While it's entirely reasonable that WotC will reprint the fetches eventually, they are pretty adamant that shocks and fetches together is too powerful for Standard.
I think WoTC has a big problem. They don`t want the shocks and fetches together, but if they plan on reprinting the ally Fetches they have to do it very quickly. When they decided to make RTR Shocks were what, 5-10 dollars and went up a lot becuase of Modern, but people were expecting a reprint.
The problem with the ally Fetches is the prices. Going by SCG`S they are $30, $35, $50, $60, $70 and only going up. They have to print them in an expansion or core set to make them Modern legal. Add to this the fact WoTC doesn`t like to make lands any higher than rare, with a few exceptions, and they have a bit of a problem.
I wouldn`t be shocked if they were reprinted in M14 or the first set of the next block, if they intend on getting them into Modern.
you guys are assuming the old rules apply
we are entering a brave new world where cards can be printed twice in one block.
where arguably the most anticipated cards in the whole block are now replacing basic lands.
those two things have never happened. the old rules don't apply anymore..
You are blowing this way out of proportion. The amount of extra shocklands that will enter the market thanks to DGM will be less than what was provided from either RTR (which has sold a ton and combined with mtgo redemptions have put a lot more of the shocklands into the system.) Gatecrash isnt looking as solid or quite as enticing as RTR was, so its likely to sell less than RTR, which will still add plenty to the market when combined with Gatecrash mtgo redemptions. And then you have DGM which will give you another 2-3 shocks per box (most likely) but is much more likely to sell a whole lot less than either RTR or Gatecrash, and there wont be any additional provided from MTGO redemptions of DGM. In the end, we'll end up with more shocks than normal from just RTR and Gatecrash, but the supply wont increase dramatically with the addition of the special setup in DGM.
Wizards has always been mindful of the secondary market. They understand how important a healthy secondary market is to the game. They arent just going to print the unholy hell out of something just to make a quick buck, because they always tend to have a long-term perspective on the game. The occasional gimicks may pop up from time to time, but its not something they neccessarily do all the time. Im sure we will eventually see the fetches reprinted, but I can guarantee it wont be while the shocklands are in standard. I wont give up on wizards or believe they are going completely off the rail unless they give me darned good reason to think so, and right now, I dont see anything (including DGM shocks) to give me that impression.
You are blowing this way out of proportion. The amount of extra shocklands that will enter the market thanks to DGM will be less than what was provided from either RTR (which has sold a ton and combined with mtgo redemptions have put a lot more of the shocklands into the system.) Gatecrash isnt looking as solid or quite as enticing as RTR was, so its likely to sell less than RTR, which will still add plenty to the market when combined with Gatecrash mtgo redemptions. And then you have DGM which will give you another 2-3 shocks per box (most likely) but is much more likely to sell a whole lot less than either RTR or Gatecrash, and there wont be any additional provided from MTGO redemptions of DGM. In the end, we'll end up with more shocks than normal from just RTR and Gatecrash, but the supply wont increase dramatically with the addition of the special setup in DGM.
Wizards has always been mindful of the secondary market. They understand how important a healthy secondary market is to the game. They arent just going to print the unholy hell out of something just to make a quick buck, because they always tend to have a long-term perspective on the game. The occasional gimicks may pop up from time to time, but its not something they neccessarily do all the time. Im sure we will eventually see the fetches reprinted, but I can guarantee it wont be while the shocklands are in standard. I wont give up on wizards or believe they are going completely off the rail unless they give me darned good reason to think so, and right now, I dont see anything (including DGM shocks) to give me that impression.
Jeff I really respect your opinions and you are very logical in your analysis.
My worry is this, if they do a limited run speculators will buy all of it and there will be nothing left to draft for the average player. Remember commander arsenal or from the vault where stores gave their best customers first dibs or sold them on ebay to the highest bidder... I imagine that if there is a "limited" run supply will run dry. I can only speak for my store, but if my store gets anything less than 20 cases, these cases will find homes by the end of the week. I will buy at least 2 cases. And I know several others who are planning to buy cases to sit on.
The only real evidence of how wizards handles high demand modern reprints is the shocklands. (I don't consider judge promos reprints for this purpose).
To be honest, the prices on the shocks have already hit bottom and are now rising. I think the 2.4 or so shocks we'll see in each box of DGM won't be enough downward pressure to bring prices down further. If anything it will just slow the rise.
With a growing player base and shocks being used in standard for 1.5 more years + modern.. they might hit the high teens by this time next year.
Jeff I really respect your opinions and you are very logical in your analysis.
My worry is this, if they do a limited run speculators will buy all of it and there will be nothing left to draft for the average player. Remember commander arsenal or from the vault where stores gave their best customers first dibs or sold them on ebay to the highest bidder... I imagine that if there is a "limited" run supply will run dry. I can only speak for my store, but if my store gets anything less than 20 cases, these cases will find homes by the end of the week. I will buy at least 2 cases. And I know several others who are planning to buy cases to sit on.
The only real evidence of how wizards handles high demand modern reprints is the shocklands. (I don't consider judge promos reprints for this purpose).
I thought you were concerned about the Shocklands, but apparently you are more concerned about the precedent you perceive it setting in regards to things like MM. With MM, due to the limited run, I dont neccessarily expect a lot of stores to discount it. Are you (or others) willing to pay $7/pack+tax to be able to get the packs by the pack, by the box or by the case? The smart stores that I know of as well, would often refuse pre-orders in order to make sure to have the product in stock for general purchase on release day or for use specifically set aside for things like drafts and such. While the supply is likely to be limited, there should still be enough boxes per shop for the first and only print run (for this year anyway) to cover reasonable demand. There will of course be some valuable cards in these no doubt, as we've allready seen from Tarmogoyf being a mythic from the set. However, at $7/pack and only 24 packs per box (I believe I recall reading that somewhere), the cost being double normal (or up to triple depending on how discounted you would find your packs normally) the value of the expected cards within the box would need to be expected to be about double the average box for it to even out. Also, with the set size you are looking at about 3 mythics per 24-pack box, and with 15 mythics in the set (assuming normal distribution), you would be looking at 5 boxes before you pull a goyf for example.
With THAT said though, wizards made it clear that they were going to do a small limited print run for this MM set. They want to test the waters to see how well received the set would be, so they dont end up overprinting or oversupplying the market. They would rather print too little or print just enough than to ever print too much when considering demand. For a lot of people $7/pack will be a lot to consider spending, some modern fanatics will go nuts for it like a lot of players go nuts for new booster packs, so there should obviously be plenty of demand. What I expect with MM's is that so long as demand is strong and the set sells out well, then we will likely continue to see future MM's sets released every year from now on. A little boost of supply here and there to keep the prices in the format from going completely bonkers like some (especially on the reserved list) are when it comes to legacy comparitively.
This is some of the best news I have ever heard from wizards. I hope this means shocklands plummet down to $3-$5 each. That way then they are actually readily available for everyone. It makes total sense when the biggest issue with any deck will always be the land base. I told people for months that $15-$20 for a shockland made no sense, and they are being brought down to the prices they were at when they were released the first time.
Now dragons gate is around and that's just super awesome. A chance at 3 rares in a booster pack again. Sounds great to me. It will sell well.
3 rares in a booster pack....Question: when does a rare stop being rare?
I thought you were concerned about the Shocklands, but apparently you are more concerned about the precedent you perceive it setting in regards to things like MM. With MM, due to the limited run, I dont neccessarily expect a lot of stores to discount it. Are you (or others) willing to pay $7/pack+tax to be able to get the packs by the pack, by the box or by the case? The smart stores that I know of as well, would often refuse pre-orders in order to make sure to have the product in stock for general purchase on release day or for use specifically set aside for things like drafts and such. While the supply is likely to be limited, there should still be enough boxes per shop for the first and only print run (for this year anyway) to cover reasonable demand. There will of course be some valuable cards in these no doubt, as we've allready seen from Tarmogoyf being a mythic from the set. However, at $7/pack and only 24 packs per box (I believe I recall reading that somewhere), the cost being double normal (or up to triple depending on how discounted you would find your packs normally) the value of the expected cards within the box would need to be expected to be about double the average box for it to even out. Also, with the set size you are looking at about 3 mythics per 24-pack box, and with 15 mythics in the set (assuming normal distribution), you would be looking at 5 boxes before you pull a goyf for example.
With THAT said though, wizards made it clear that they were going to do a small limited print run for this MM set. They want to test the waters to see how well received the set would be, so they dont end up overprinting or oversupplying the market. They would rather print too little or print just enough than to ever print too much when considering demand. For a lot of people $7/pack will be a lot to consider spending, some modern fanatics will go nuts for it like a lot of players go nuts for new booster packs, so there should obviously be plenty of demand. What I expect with MM's is that so long as demand is strong and the set sells out well, then we will likely continue to see future MM's sets released every year from now on. A little boost of supply here and there to keep the prices in the format from going completely bonkers like some (especially on the reserved list) are when it comes to legacy comparitively.
I understand your logic. And you are correct, what I am worried about is that this sets a bad precedent.
I can only really see two scenarios.
It is limited and speculators buy all of it and there is none to draft.
or
It is not limited and Hasbro goes to the printing press and modern staples tank like the shocks.
Maybe wizards/hasbro will surprise me. But once you dip into the honey jar once... its hard to control yourself. (To sell Dragon's maze they put in extra shocks, I believe this is because without them Dragon's maze will not sell. You have two sets with shocks... prior to it)
I think the real reason is it's a Gate themed set but Gates are not super exciting. Now you have a 1/15 chance that your bonus gate is a shock and a small chance it's the mythic land. I'm not sure it's about pushing product. The 2.4ish shocks per box you'll expect to pull isn't going to drive demand that much. It does increase expected value a bit though..
I don't understand why this is a bad thing, all they wanted to do was get more shocks out there, and this amount is certainly not going to push the price down to 3-5 methinks.
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I find the shocks will go down in price, but look at the flip side. More people will be using non-basic lands cause they can afford it now. This has implications for non-basic land intaraction cards such as: Anthermancer, Sowing salt, Cryclasm, Molten Rain, and Dryad Sophisticate. We have no say in what really happens at wzards, but can only react to rule/printing decisions. The more people that play this; the more wizards will keep the game going. That is where the value in our cards is.
The negative impact on the price of the shocks from DGM is overblown. Look at the m10 lands which have been reprinted 34563 times.
Those are significantly cheaper than shocks, which is likely what is to happen with the shocklands to some extent, although not as significant because it's not over 4 years.
Those are significantly cheaper than shocks, which is likely what is to happen with the shocklands to some extent, although not as significant because it's not over 4 years.
But you would think with so many reprints none of them should be over $1.
Well if everyone will have shocks and some fetchs and other really good non basics in the format could we see a wasteland coming soon? If they do it better not be a mythic!!
This is actually very good secondary market engineering for Modern. Wizards really wants to support Modern, and they know that lands are a barrier of entry. They don't want to make the same mistake that Legacy has with insanely high priced lands. Dumping a large amount into this current block will mean much cheaper prices for Modern once they rotate out of Standard. They are also attempting to solve some of the problems with other high priced cards with MM, so this makes sense.
I wouldn't be surprised if they print all 10 of the buddy lands in the next core set and keep them a staple in all future core sets like they used to do with the painlands.
Everything is being planned to keep manabase costs as low as possible, which i think is a very good thing for the game overall. Rare lands help sell sets because everyone needs them, so reprinting rare lands not only helps sell packs, they also put more into circulation which helps reduce their cost on the secondary market. It's win-win.
As for the fetchlands, I believe we will see a reprinting of them eventually, probably sometime after shocks rotate out of standard. They could reprint the allied ones, the enemy ones, or even all 10; I'm not sure which is more likely. Another possibility that I have speculated is banning the enemy fetchlands from Modern and never reprinting fetchlands again. I don't think this is likely since people don't like having their high priced cards banned, but it would reduce the manabase costs even more. Also I seem to remember Wotc stating fetchlands are bad for the game since they create unnecessary shuffling and slows games down; which might be another reason for not reprinting them.
and you realize that RtR is way more popular than innistrad..
reverse the two.. RtR then Innistrad... new players would quit in droves.
and explain to me why we can't have the two? we have them in every other format.
why not make standard more like modern... that way players will transition without any need for expensive lands.
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What makes you think this? I haven't heard any info about sales for RtR. I'm pretty sure I read that Innistrad broke some sales records.
A couple points here. Making Standard like Modern is not a good goal at all. The two are different formats and should be treated as such. Remember their previous attempt at Extended? That failed hard because among other reasons, it ended up consisting of slightly modified Standard decks and little else.
Speaking of Standard, you have to keep in mind that it is still VASTLY more popular than Modern. And as far as I know, Modern isn't even as popular as Legacy. Yeah, Modern is a growing format, but it isn't quite there yet. With all the continuing bannings, the format has clearly not settled down. Also, Wizards has said multiple times that they don't particularly like having fetchlands in Standard because it puts the game on pause way too often.
All this means that there is no need to warp Standard in order to make Modern more appealing. This is why I said they won't reprint allied fetches until a set (or block) requires them.
um no...Innistrad and RtR are very close in popularity, if anything Innistrad was more popular. Consider this, what do you think casual players like more (remember they are the biggest market in MTG): vampires/werewolves or lands that hurt you when you play them? The answer is pretty obvious.
You do realize that this would increase the shuffling amount and general length of games, Wizards does not like long games in standard. If we make standard like modern, what is the point in having modern?
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On the reprints, this is a surprise. I had certainly underestimated Wizards' ruthlessness in bringing down the price of the key mana fixing for modern.
I have previously said anything under $10 is a win when buying shocks. Now, I'd wait for DGM. There's room to move in the $6-$10 price. $6 is a possibility for some shocks, though not for long. I would be surprised if any shocks hold over $10 between now and October.
Shocks are still a buy at under $10 IMO, however there is a fair level of reprint risk here. I had originally figured a four year hold period would yield nice profits. This was on the assumption that (a) with four years between gold sets there's little chance of a reprint in that time, and (b) they would reprint other things in any future modern masters, given the volume of shocks they have just added.
Now I am wondering if any price above $15 would provide a trigger for wizards to print them again, out of block sequence if need be.
I now think the ideal hold time on shocks if two rather than four years. Any longer and your risk of being hit by a reprint will rise sharply.
I think WoTC has a big problem. They don`t want the shocks and fetches together, but if they plan on reprinting the ally Fetches they have to do it very quickly. When they decided to make RTR Shocks were what, 5-10 dollars and went up a lot becuase of Modern, but people were expecting a reprint.
The problem with the ally Fetches is the prices. Going by SCG`S they are $30, $35, $50, $60, $70 and only going up. They have to print them in an expansion or core set to make them Modern legal. Add to this the fact WoTC doesn`t like to make lands any higher than rare, with a few exceptions, and they have a bit of a problem.
I wouldn`t be shocked if they were reprinted in M14 or the first set of the next block, if they intend on getting them into Modern.
we are entering a brave new world where cards can be printed twice in one block.
where arguably the most anticipated cards in the whole block are now replacing basic lands.
those two things have never happened. the old rules don't apply anymore..
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That's true, but common sense still does.
You are blowing this way out of proportion. The amount of extra shocklands that will enter the market thanks to DGM will be less than what was provided from either RTR (which has sold a ton and combined with mtgo redemptions have put a lot more of the shocklands into the system.) Gatecrash isnt looking as solid or quite as enticing as RTR was, so its likely to sell less than RTR, which will still add plenty to the market when combined with Gatecrash mtgo redemptions. And then you have DGM which will give you another 2-3 shocks per box (most likely) but is much more likely to sell a whole lot less than either RTR or Gatecrash, and there wont be any additional provided from MTGO redemptions of DGM. In the end, we'll end up with more shocks than normal from just RTR and Gatecrash, but the supply wont increase dramatically with the addition of the special setup in DGM.
Wizards has always been mindful of the secondary market. They understand how important a healthy secondary market is to the game. They arent just going to print the unholy hell out of something just to make a quick buck, because they always tend to have a long-term perspective on the game. The occasional gimicks may pop up from time to time, but its not something they neccessarily do all the time. Im sure we will eventually see the fetches reprinted, but I can guarantee it wont be while the shocklands are in standard. I wont give up on wizards or believe they are going completely off the rail unless they give me darned good reason to think so, and right now, I dont see anything (including DGM shocks) to give me that impression.
Jeff I really respect your opinions and you are very logical in your analysis.
My worry is this, if they do a limited run speculators will buy all of it and there will be nothing left to draft for the average player. Remember commander arsenal or from the vault where stores gave their best customers first dibs or sold them on ebay to the highest bidder... I imagine that if there is a "limited" run supply will run dry. I can only speak for my store, but if my store gets anything less than 20 cases, these cases will find homes by the end of the week. I will buy at least 2 cases. And I know several others who are planning to buy cases to sit on.
The only real evidence of how wizards handles high demand modern reprints is the shocklands. (I don't consider judge promos reprints for this purpose).
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With a growing player base and shocks being used in standard for 1.5 more years + modern.. they might hit the high teens by this time next year.
I thought you were concerned about the Shocklands, but apparently you are more concerned about the precedent you perceive it setting in regards to things like MM. With MM, due to the limited run, I dont neccessarily expect a lot of stores to discount it. Are you (or others) willing to pay $7/pack+tax to be able to get the packs by the pack, by the box or by the case? The smart stores that I know of as well, would often refuse pre-orders in order to make sure to have the product in stock for general purchase on release day or for use specifically set aside for things like drafts and such. While the supply is likely to be limited, there should still be enough boxes per shop for the first and only print run (for this year anyway) to cover reasonable demand. There will of course be some valuable cards in these no doubt, as we've allready seen from Tarmogoyf being a mythic from the set. However, at $7/pack and only 24 packs per box (I believe I recall reading that somewhere), the cost being double normal (or up to triple depending on how discounted you would find your packs normally) the value of the expected cards within the box would need to be expected to be about double the average box for it to even out. Also, with the set size you are looking at about 3 mythics per 24-pack box, and with 15 mythics in the set (assuming normal distribution), you would be looking at 5 boxes before you pull a goyf for example.
With THAT said though, wizards made it clear that they were going to do a small limited print run for this MM set. They want to test the waters to see how well received the set would be, so they dont end up overprinting or oversupplying the market. They would rather print too little or print just enough than to ever print too much when considering demand. For a lot of people $7/pack will be a lot to consider spending, some modern fanatics will go nuts for it like a lot of players go nuts for new booster packs, so there should obviously be plenty of demand. What I expect with MM's is that so long as demand is strong and the set sells out well, then we will likely continue to see future MM's sets released every year from now on. A little boost of supply here and there to keep the prices in the format from going completely bonkers like some (especially on the reserved list) are when it comes to legacy comparitively.
3 rares in a booster pack....Question: when does a rare stop being rare?
I understand your logic. And you are correct, what I am worried about is that this sets a bad precedent.
I can only really see two scenarios.
It is limited and speculators buy all of it and there is none to draft.
or
It is not limited and Hasbro goes to the printing press and modern staples tank like the shocks.
Maybe wizards/hasbro will surprise me. But once you dip into the honey jar once... its hard to control yourself. (To sell Dragon's maze they put in extra shocks, I believe this is because without them Dragon's maze will not sell. You have two sets with shocks... prior to it)
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Those are significantly cheaper than shocks, which is likely what is to happen with the shocklands to some extent, although not as significant because it's not over 4 years.
But you would think with so many reprints none of them should be over $1.
I wouldn't be surprised if they print all 10 of the buddy lands in the next core set and keep them a staple in all future core sets like they used to do with the painlands.
Everything is being planned to keep manabase costs as low as possible, which i think is a very good thing for the game overall. Rare lands help sell sets because everyone needs them, so reprinting rare lands not only helps sell packs, they also put more into circulation which helps reduce their cost on the secondary market. It's win-win.
As for the fetchlands, I believe we will see a reprinting of them eventually, probably sometime after shocks rotate out of standard. They could reprint the allied ones, the enemy ones, or even all 10; I'm not sure which is more likely. Another possibility that I have speculated is banning the enemy fetchlands from Modern and never reprinting fetchlands again. I don't think this is likely since people don't like having their high priced cards banned, but it would reduce the manabase costs even more. Also I seem to remember Wotc stating fetchlands are bad for the game since they create unnecessary shuffling and slows games down; which might be another reason for not reprinting them.
Apparently about sixteen months ago, since the same thing was possible in Innistrad and Dark Ascension.
Actually six years ago when time shifted cards were introduced in Time Spiral booster packs.