We've been asked to open up a thread to talk about price speculation for the upcoming Return to Ravnica.
Rules:
1. Only discussion of officially spoiled cards is allowed here. If you talk about cards not confirmed by Wizards of the Coast, you will receive and infraction.
2. Shockland price speculation has it's own thread: Shockland price speculation
3. Use complete arguments that explain why you feel the way you do. Just mentioning how much you think a card will be worth is spam.
This thread will be closed as soon as product is in hand and we are allowed to buy/trade/sell the cards.
Shocklands will obviously be high in price, although I feel like they will drop somewhat from the $20+ they are right now. Although the more used/popular guilds might still be up there in price, similar to what Darkslick Shores and their ilk were in their day.
Obviously the new Jace will be big initially, will most likely start at 30ish at least, since hes a Planeswalker. Will wax or wane depending on popularity/use. I see him going the way of Sorin, Lord of Innistrad though, ie down.
Charms, depending on how good they are, will mostly likely be .50-1.00ish uncommons. Izzet Charm definitely will most likely be on the higher end.
Rakdos's Return, even though a Mythic, won't be too high I don't think. It doesn't really fit in any build, unless Jund control or something of the like gets big. At most $2-3, unless someone figures out a way to break it.
Dreadbore will probably be a few dollars, more if Planeswalkers become a thing. Its very good removal, especially since there aren't (yet) many regenerate creatures out there. Not being an instant hurts it somewhat, but a rare, good removal will be worth something.
Call me crazy. but Chromatic Lantern seems like the card people are most excited for so far. Presales are hovering between $4-5 now, but it certainly seems like a card that at least every casual player will want.
Corpsejack Menace is the only other card I'm personally excited about, because so many cards will care about +1/+1 counters in the new Standard (and already do in Magic's history). Being a Promo will limit its price, obviously, but I wouldn't mind paying ~$2 for a Doubling Season on legs in the right deck.
I'm less excited about the hype associated with Rakdos's Return and Dreadbore, but maybe the amount of play will justify the relatively high price on them come release time.
I expect all the charms to be at least a dollar a piece unless it just really really sucks.
I think Jace is pretty damn good. I don't see him breaking 20 when the dust settles, but preorders from 30 seem right.
Latern is the nuts in EDH. I don't think it will see standard play, so it will be limited to a 3-4 dollar rare as opposed to five.
Dreadbore I expect to be at least 5 depending on how prevelant planeswalkers are in the next meta. Other than that, it's also a sorcery speed murder that Jund Midrange can use.
Rakdos' Return I honestly think will be a bulk mythic. Outside of Limited, this card is pretty lame. I'd rather play Bonfire if I want a fireball effect.
Call me crazy. but Chromatic Lantern seems like the card people are most excited for so far. Presales are hovering between $4-5 now, but it certainly seems like a card that at least every casual player will want.
I noticed this too. I think it probably has to come down though. There will be bazillions of these floating around.
Personally, I'm gonna wait for the rest of the spoils. People will almost certainly lose sight of it once the true chase cards hit and start sucking up all the oxygen in the room.
Maybe I'm a bit pessimistic, but I think everything in RTR will have a depressed price except the shocklands unless Wizards imposes a strict limit on the RTR print-run.
The shocklands add considerable value to the set, especially being only rares. Market demand for them in a variety of venues and their general utility, as well as demand from all standard will keep their values high.
I see the shocklands spiking up the EV of RTR to high levels which will likely cause a record number of RTR boxes to be busted open just to acquire them. Not only that, but general enthusiasm for the Ravnica plane has always been high. This will lead to a surplus of other RTR rares and cards.
Excess supply of other Ravnica cards means depressed value across the board for other cards as long as Wizards keeps the cases coming to stores.
Basically if the EV of a box of RTR is 120, and they can be purchased at 99, something is going to give.
Some cards are going to eat the price depression necessary to satisfy the market force to push the EV of RTR below its retail and I don't think its going to be the shocklands.
This set will be massively cracked. The non-shockland rares will have a hard time staying above $5 after the dust settles. New Jace IMO is pretty good. At least the best blue walker in standard so far. Preorders should be 30-40. Whether it tanks or shoots up is something we'll find out later based on standard play.
This set will be massively cracked. The non-shockland rares will have a hard time staying above $5 after the dust settles. New Jace IMO is pretty good. At least the best blue walker in standard so far. Preorders should be 30-40. Whether it tanks or shoots up is something we'll find out later based on standard play.
I am looking at Jace 4 and honestly can't figure out why he'd be worth anything. Can someone explain why he isn't Chandra Ablaze/Sarkhan the Mad caliber?
I am looking at Jace 4 and honestly can't figure out why he'd be worth anything. Can someone explain why he isn't Chandra Ablaze/Sarkhan the Mad caliber?
Honestly, I was thinking the same thing. Its not terrible, but its not really "good" either. I could see it at $10? Maybe? Because its a planeswalker though it will start out higher and then drop. I just keep looking at the card and wishing parts of it were better, I guess wizards decided ol Jace needed a break from being so powerful :p.
This set will be massively cracked. The non-shockland rares will have a hard time staying above $5 after the dust settles. New Jace IMO is pretty good. At least the best blue walker in standard so far. Preorders should be 30-40. Whether it tanks or shoots up is something we'll find out later based on standard play.
I agree, but I'll include some data to help clarify the point. Here are the non-rotating rares worth $5 or more according to TCGPlayer low:
M13
Talrand, Sky Summoner
Thragtusk
Avacyn Restored
Cavern of Souls
Restoration Angel
Dark Ascension
None
Innistrad
Isolated Chapel
Snapcaster Mage
And it's not like there were a ton of cards that were close; almost everything is less than $1. The trend seems to be 5 or so $3+ rares per set, a couple $15+ mythics, and 40+ bulk rares.
Given that there are 5 guaranteed $5-10 rares in RTR, I don't think that leaves much room for anything else.
Zendikar would be a good comparison to [RTR] -- a wildly popular set with a cycle of rare lands that are high in demand. My memory may be a bit off, but what else stayed ~$5+ shortly after the release of [ZEN]? In no particular order, I remember:
...which isn't much. And as expected, most of them dropped quite a bit in the weeksafter. Aside from Lotus Cobra, most of these were in the $5-10 range, and 8 of them were Mythics. That was also pre-JTMS, so no ridiculously high Planeswalker prices right out the gate, no matter how weak they are. Cards will start high early, but I can't imagine too many rares will maintain a price above the shocklands.
EDIT: @pw -- Agreed. Just throwing another set out there for comparison.
@AEIOUsometimesY: Yeah, I was just comparing rares, the point being that a couple of expensive mythics eventually soak up a lot of the set's value. The remaining three cards you mentioned means that Zendikar pretty much aligns with the pattern I noticed.
And I mentioned this in the shock land thread, but the fetches were one time printings that are used in all formats, whereas shocks are reprints that aren't played in Eternal* formats.
I am looking at Jace 4 and honestly can't figure out why he'd be worth anything. Can someone explain why he isn't Chandra Ablaze/Sarkhan the Mad caliber?
The fact that he's a mini repeatable FoF is a huge attraction to this guy.
I think he's good, but he's not amazing need a playset in every blue deck ever amazing.
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Originally Posted by Arcadic View Post
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Dreadbore will initially spike bigtime. It's a rare that everybody that has a BR deck wants a playset of. Especially the 'destroy planeswalker' clause will attract people. Think it will be around 5$ for a long time.
Dreadbore being a sorcery will have a slight impact on price. Agreed, $5
The fact that he's a mini repeatable FoF is a huge attraction to this guy.
Isn't that like saying Grizzly Bear is like a mini Tarmogoyf though? If he's even going to be a $10 card that +1 ability really needs to matter in Standard.
Just to archive - Completed listings on Jace 4 presale playsets through Sept 2, 2013.
Isn't that like saying Grizzly Bear is like a mini Tarmogoyf though? If he's even going to be a $10 card that +1 ability really needs to matter in Standard.
well grizzly bears isn't a mythic and can't get bigger
I don't think he's incredible, but I think he's good.
Due to the fact that he's a Jace, and blue, and a planeswalker, I think the floor for him is 6-8 dollars with the ceiling being 15. he's pretty much a four mana draw two + fog (because there's almost no way your opponent WON'T attack him, less you draw 4 for four)
he does relie a lot on your opponents choices.
I'm not sure. I wasn't super impressed when I first saw him, but he does seem good.
He's not as bad as say Tibalt
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Originally Posted by Arcadic View Post
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The fact that he's a mini repeatable FoF is a huge attraction to this guy.
I think he's good, but he's not amazing need a playset in every blue deck ever amazing.
Totally agree. He will probably be a 2-of in some kind of control shell, just like most planeswalkers are 2-ofs in the current standard.
Im really surprised that The new Niv is selling as low as 13.00 preorder on eBay right now. I thought that hype coupled with popularity ( not to mention that it's a darn fine card) would put it to 20.00 range. Or is that just because Star City hasn't set their preorder prices yet?
Totally agree. He will probably be a 2-of in some kind of control shell, just like most planeswalkers are 2-ofs in the current standard.
Im really surprised that The new Niv is selling as low as 13.00 preorder on eBay right now. I thought that hype coupled with popularity ( not to mention that it's a darn fine card) would put it to 20.00 range. Or is that just because Star City hasn't set their preorder prices yet?
The EDH players I listen to are all sort of bummed about him and not at all excited. His abilities are similar enough to Niv#1 that he feels like a neutered version of his former self. Isperia, on the other hand, is a huge improvement over Isperia#1 so I am curious how she'll settle.
Which is kind of funny in itself, since Niv2.0 is way stronger card than Niv1.0. This new version might even see the light of day in a real constructed format instead of being strictly casual card.
Niv 2.0 doesn't have the combo-ing potential that Niv 1.0 does. In terms of sanctioned constructed formats, call me crazy, but I think Hypersonic Dragon might be a better finisher. Assuming a natural curve, it comes down a turn sooner, has haste and lets you copy big spells the same turn (or before, if you have the mana) Niv 2.0 hits the table.
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Niv 2.0 doesn't have the combo-ing potential that Niv 1.0 does. In terms of sanctioned constructed formats, call me crazy, but I think Hypersonic Dragon might be a better finisher. Assuming a natural curve, it comes down a turn sooner, has haste and lets you copy big spells the same turn (or before, if you have the mana) Niv 2.0 hits the table.
The thing about both of these cards is you need MORE mana than just their mana cost to get value less they eat a removal spell.
You need at least one open after slamming a dragon down to cast that one mana sorcery sitting in your hand.
Niv requires 8 (!) mana to be useful, less the opponent just timewalks you by casting Murder or another removal spell.
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Originally Posted by Arcadic View Post
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Some input from someone who has made some RtR preorders-
Chromatic Lanern is *absolutely* worth the $5 it's currently going for on eBay.
Every EDH deck (that isn't mono) under the sun will want that one.
I expect Foils to be gut-wrenchingly expensive
Mizzium Meteors is selling for ~$4, and I feel it's absolutely worth that.
Unless they reveal a better Red "sweeper,"
this is in Bonfire territory IMO.
Speaking of Bonfire, I honestly expect Rakdos's Return to spike severely once people realize how bonkers it is.
Yes, Blightning is better, but only by 1, and it has no options.
I bought a playset purely on speculation (and the desire to build a Grixis Control deck).
Dreadbore is going for around ~$6,
and while I could definitely see it going down a little,
it could also go up to $10 or so if it becomes really popular.
At $6, it's not a huge gamble IMO.
Prices for new Shocklands are already quite reasonable-
Blue ones are going for $15, others for $10 or less.
I don't see those getting much cheaper.
I'm not about to buy any big-name Mythics this time-
Jace and Niv can sit there and deflate a bit before I buy any
Momir Vig, Simic Visionary
Melek, Izzet Paragon
Oona, Queen of the Fae
Bruna, Light of Alabaster
Gisela, Blade of Goldnight
Rhys the Redeemed
Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord
Sen Triplets
The Mimeoplasm WUBRGSliver OverlordGRBUW WUBRGSliver Hivelord(Superfriends)GRBUW
Some input from someone who has made some RtR preorders-
Finally, an expert chimes in...
I honestly don't agree with any of your specs, simply because there cannot be that much value in a set. Yes, new cards are cool, but for a random rare to be $5, it has to be highly played.
Rules:
1. Only discussion of officially spoiled cards is allowed here. If you talk about cards not confirmed by Wizards of the Coast, you will receive and infraction.
2. Shockland price speculation has it's own thread: Shockland price speculation
3. Use complete arguments that explain why you feel the way you do. Just mentioning how much you think a card will be worth is spam.
This thread will be closed as soon as product is in hand and we are allowed to buy/trade/sell the cards.
WUBRGPauper Battle BoxWUBRG ... and why I am not a fan of Wayne Reynolds' Illustrations.
Obviously the new Jace will be big initially, will most likely start at 30ish at least, since hes a Planeswalker. Will wax or wane depending on popularity/use. I see him going the way of Sorin, Lord of Innistrad though, ie down.
Charms, depending on how good they are, will mostly likely be .50-1.00ish uncommons. Izzet Charm definitely will most likely be on the higher end.
Rakdos's Return, even though a Mythic, won't be too high I don't think. It doesn't really fit in any build, unless Jund control or something of the like gets big. At most $2-3, unless someone figures out a way to break it.
Dreadbore will probably be a few dollars, more if Planeswalkers become a thing. Its very good removal, especially since there aren't (yet) many regenerate creatures out there. Not being an instant hurts it somewhat, but a rare, good removal will be worth something.
Corpsejack Menace is the only other card I'm personally excited about, because so many cards will care about +1/+1 counters in the new Standard (and already do in Magic's history). Being a Promo will limit its price, obviously, but I wouldn't mind paying ~$2 for a Doubling Season on legs in the right deck.
I'm less excited about the hype associated with Rakdos's Return and Dreadbore, but maybe the amount of play will justify the relatively high price on them come release time.
I think Jace is pretty damn good. I don't see him breaking 20 when the dust settles, but preorders from 30 seem right.
Latern is the nuts in EDH. I don't think it will see standard play, so it will be limited to a 3-4 dollar rare as opposed to five.
Dreadbore I expect to be at least 5 depending on how prevelant planeswalkers are in the next meta. Other than that, it's also a sorcery speed murder that Jund Midrange can use.
Rakdos' Return I honestly think will be a bulk mythic. Outside of Limited, this card is pretty lame. I'd rather play Bonfire if I want a fireball effect.
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I noticed this too. I think it probably has to come down though. There will be bazillions of these floating around.
Personally, I'm gonna wait for the rest of the spoils. People will almost certainly lose sight of it once the true chase cards hit and start sucking up all the oxygen in the room.
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The shocklands add considerable value to the set, especially being only rares. Market demand for them in a variety of venues and their general utility, as well as demand from all standard will keep their values high.
I see the shocklands spiking up the EV of RTR to high levels which will likely cause a record number of RTR boxes to be busted open just to acquire them. Not only that, but general enthusiasm for the Ravnica plane has always been high. This will lead to a surplus of other RTR rares and cards.
Excess supply of other Ravnica cards means depressed value across the board for other cards as long as Wizards keeps the cases coming to stores.
Basically if the EV of a box of RTR is 120, and they can be purchased at 99, something is going to give.
Some cards are going to eat the price depression necessary to satisfy the market force to push the EV of RTR below its retail and I don't think its going to be the shocklands.
Initial values will be high and should plummet immediately.
I am looking at Jace 4 and honestly can't figure out why he'd be worth anything. Can someone explain why he isn't Chandra Ablaze/Sarkhan the Mad caliber?
WUBRGPauper Battle BoxWUBRG ... and why I am not a fan of Wayne Reynolds' Illustrations.
Honestly, I was thinking the same thing. Its not terrible, but its not really "good" either. I could see it at $10? Maybe? Because its a planeswalker though it will start out higher and then drop. I just keep looking at the card and wishing parts of it were better, I guess wizards decided ol Jace needed a break from being so powerful :p.
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I agree, but I'll include some data to help clarify the point. Here are the non-rotating rares worth $5 or more according to TCGPlayer low:
M13
Talrand, Sky Summoner
Thragtusk
Avacyn Restored
Cavern of Souls
Restoration Angel
Dark Ascension
None
Innistrad
Isolated Chapel
Snapcaster Mage
And it's not like there were a ton of cards that were close; almost everything is less than $1. The trend seems to be 5 or so $3+ rares per set, a couple $15+ mythics, and 40+ bulk rares.
Given that there are 5 guaranteed $5-10 rares in RTR, I don't think that leaves much room for anything else.
...which isn't much. And as expected, most of them dropped quite a bit in the weeks after. Aside from Lotus Cobra, most of these were in the $5-10 range, and 8 of them were Mythics. That was also pre-JTMS, so no ridiculously high Planeswalker prices right out the gate, no matter how weak they are. Cards will start high early, but I can't imagine too many rares will maintain a price above the shocklands.
EDIT: @pw -- Agreed. Just throwing another set out there for comparison.
And I mentioned this in the shock land thread, but the fetches were one time printings that are used in all formats, whereas shocks are reprints that aren't played in Eternal* formats.
*what do we call just Vintage and Legacy now?
The fact that he's a mini repeatable FoF is a huge attraction to this guy.
I think he's good, but he's not amazing need a playset in every blue deck ever amazing.
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Dreadbore being a sorcery will have a slight impact on price. Agreed, $5
Isn't that like saying Grizzly Bear is like a mini Tarmogoyf though? If he's even going to be a $10 card that +1 ability really needs to matter in Standard.
Just to archive - Completed listings on Jace 4 presale playsets through Sept 2, 2013.
$114.99
$114.99
$99.99
$110.00
$99.99
$89.00
$96.00
$92.77
$86.76
$80.00
$81.00
$81.00
$82.76
$86.00
$81.41
$77.27
WUBRGPauper Battle BoxWUBRG ... and why I am not a fan of Wayne Reynolds' Illustrations.
well grizzly bears isn't a mythic and can't get bigger
I don't think he's incredible, but I think he's good.
Due to the fact that he's a Jace, and blue, and a planeswalker, I think the floor for him is 6-8 dollars with the ceiling being 15. he's pretty much a four mana draw two + fog (because there's almost no way your opponent WON'T attack him, less you draw 4 for four)
he does relie a lot on your opponents choices.
I'm not sure. I wasn't super impressed when I first saw him, but he does seem good.
He's not as bad as say Tibalt
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Totally agree. He will probably be a 2-of in some kind of control shell, just like most planeswalkers are 2-ofs in the current standard.
Im really surprised that The new Niv is selling as low as 13.00 preorder on eBay right now. I thought that hype coupled with popularity ( not to mention that it's a darn fine card) would put it to 20.00 range. Or is that just because Star City hasn't set their preorder prices yet?
The EDH players I listen to are all sort of bummed about him and not at all excited. His abilities are similar enough to Niv#1 that he feels like a neutered version of his former self. Isperia, on the other hand, is a huge improvement over Isperia#1 so I am curious how she'll settle.
WUBRGPauper Battle BoxWUBRG ... and why I am not a fan of Wayne Reynolds' Illustrations.
Niv 2.0 doesn't have the combo-ing potential that Niv 1.0 does. In terms of sanctioned constructed formats, call me crazy, but I think Hypersonic Dragon might be a better finisher. Assuming a natural curve, it comes down a turn sooner, has haste and lets you copy big spells the same turn (or before, if you have the mana) Niv 2.0 hits the table.
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The thing about both of these cards is you need MORE mana than just their mana cost to get value less they eat a removal spell.
You need at least one open after slamming a dragon down to cast that one mana sorcery sitting in your hand.
Niv requires 8 (!) mana to be useful, less the opponent just timewalks you by casting Murder or another removal spell.
scumbag
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Chromatic Lanern is *absolutely* worth the $5 it's currently going for on eBay.
Every EDH deck (that isn't mono) under the sun will want that one.
I expect Foils to be gut-wrenchingly expensive
Mizzium Meteors is selling for ~$4, and I feel it's absolutely worth that.
Unless they reveal a better Red "sweeper,"
this is in Bonfire territory IMO.
Speaking of Bonfire, I honestly expect Rakdos's Return to spike severely once people realize how bonkers it is.
Yes, Blightning is better, but only by 1, and it has no options.
I bought a playset purely on speculation (and the desire to build a Grixis Control deck).
Dreadbore is going for around ~$6,
and while I could definitely see it going down a little,
it could also go up to $10 or so if it becomes really popular.
At $6, it's not a huge gamble IMO.
Prices for new Shocklands are already quite reasonable-
Blue ones are going for $15, others for $10 or less.
I don't see those getting much cheaper.
I'm not about to buy any big-name Mythics this time-
Jace and Niv can sit there and deflate a bit before I buy any
Reprint Stasis!
Control needs more love.
EDH:
Momir Vig, Simic Visionary
Melek, Izzet Paragon
Oona, Queen of the Fae
Bruna, Light of Alabaster
Gisela, Blade of Goldnight
Rhys the Redeemed
Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord
Sen Triplets
The Mimeoplasm
WUBRGSliver OverlordGRBUW
WUBRGSliver Hivelord(Superfriends)GRBUW
Finally, an expert chimes in...
I honestly don't agree with any of your specs, simply because there cannot be that much value in a set. Yes, new cards are cool, but for a random rare to be $5, it has to be highly played.