Hello everybody,
I've been thinking lately about how DFCs are going to be distributed and how their availability would affect their subsequent price. From what I can see, based on a few calculations is that a mythic DFC (ie: Garruk) would appear in roughly 1 in 120 packs of Innistrad. The chance of pulling a Rare DFC is 1:15, so a specific rare would be in 1:90 packs. Your chance of pulling a specific rare is slightly worse than 1:59 (I havn't modified for mythics), but I think it'll be nearly 150% harder to get your rares.
With regards to shops putting together preorders, would this not cause a lot of trouble if it had not been factored in correctly? I know that quite a few stores had problems with NPH, not realizing that the uncommons were different than normal...?
Would this cause a price spike, especially after later blocks when the likes of werewolves may be a viable deck? I'm not sure. I've been buying DFCs quite a bit, as I think they are going to rise in value, but I would like to hear your opinions on this You guys are the experts!
No, it won't. You have a 2/121 chance of pulling any individual rare DFC in a pack, which is the same as pulling a regular rare out of a pack. Same with Garruk, who is 1/121, equivalent to the Mythic Rare distribution.
Yeah, it's a dual-faced card. I thought that was standard terminology now? Everyone used it in the Rumor mills *shrugs*. I was just thinking about how easy a playset would be to open, and ran a few quick calculations. I'd be interested in seeing the correct math, if one of you would not mind posting it?
Assume a sheet of 121 cards. [This is what they usually print on]
A Mythic is 1/121
A Rare is 2/121
[Both of the above should line up perfectly with the normal rares and mythics. Commons and uncommons, however, are slightly off.]
An Uncommon is 6/121
A Common is 11/121
So the mythic is 1/121, the rares are 12/121, the uncommons are 42/121, and commons are 66/121, adding up to 121/121.
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I've been thinking lately about how DFCs are going to be distributed and how their availability would affect their subsequent price. From what I can see, based on a few calculations is that a mythic DFC (ie: Garruk) would appear in roughly 1 in 120 packs of Innistrad. The chance of pulling a Rare DFC is 1:15, so a specific rare would be in 1:90 packs. Your chance of pulling a specific rare is slightly worse than 1:59 (I havn't modified for mythics), but I think it'll be nearly 150% harder to get your rares.
With regards to shops putting together preorders, would this not cause a lot of trouble if it had not been factored in correctly? I know that quite a few stores had problems with NPH, not realizing that the uncommons were different than normal...?
Would this cause a price spike, especially after later blocks when the likes of werewolves may be a viable deck? I'm not sure. I've been buying DFCs quite a bit, as I think they are going to rise in value, but I would like to hear your opinions on this You guys are the experts!
Current post- Grand Prix KC Modern Postmortem (7/7/13)
I am petitioning to get players to stop complaining about mythic rarity. Sig this to join the cause.
Currently looking to buy miscut Homelands, (my wife thinks I'm crazy too).
Semper Gumby (Always Flexible)
And the math I ran agrees with Kirblar's numbers. A DFC Rare or Mythic is exactly as easy to obtain as a normal rare/mythic in Innistrad.
1 Mythic [Garruk]
6 Rare
7 Uncommon
6 Common
Assume a sheet of 121 cards. [This is what they usually print on]
A Mythic is 1/121
A Rare is 2/121
[Both of the above should line up perfectly with the normal rares and mythics. Commons and uncommons, however, are slightly off.]
An Uncommon is 6/121
A Common is 11/121
So the mythic is 1/121, the rares are 12/121, the uncommons are 42/121, and commons are 66/121, adding up to 121/121.