Welcome once again to the Running Tally thread, this time for Fate Reforged. The purpose of Running Tallies is to keep a visual record of prices and trends of singles in the set, to help players, traders, and dealers get more information and a better feel for what's going on in the market. I've been doing such threads for several years now, and learn a lot from it myself in the process. If you have similar data to post here, please do, especially if it's more than just a static price list. Please keep your comments on the topic of Fate Reforged (singles and overall set) prices and trends.
(previous tallies are located in the following posts: nil)
A noticeable lack of fetchlands:
1) Ugin the Spirit Dragon (32)
2) Monastery Mentor (26)
3) Soulfire Grand Master (22)
4) Warden of the First Tree (10)
5) Brutal Hordechief (9)
6) Whisperwood Elemental (9)
7) Shaman of the Great Hunt (8)
8) Temporal Trespass (6)
9) Torrent Elemental (5)
10) Tasigur the Golden Fang (4.5)
11) Crux of Fate (4)
12) Flamewake Phoenix (4)
13) Soulflayer (3.5)
14) Alesha Who Smiles at Death (3)
15) Monastery Siege (3)
The card's most recent move is on right. means no movement. is a card that wasn't on the list last update. This is the update's hottest mover.(#)is price in USD incl. shipping here.
A modest 15 cards are worth $3 or more, and therefore worth opening in a booster pack. Born and JiN each had 14, Theros began with 38, M15 with 20, and KoT with 29.
Comparing this initial tally to that of KoT, the first three cards are roughly the same (mythics in the 20-30 range). After that, FR is clearly the inferior set, as prices drop to 10 instead of to 15 with KoT's fetchlands. And of course, this tally (15) is half the size KoT's was (29). We have to keep in mind that KoT was a larger set.
I think Ugin will remain fairly high, although it should come down toward $20 while in print. Monastery Mentor is a really brutal token generator, one of the best the game has seen, so it's hard to see it falling too hard. I think the three-colour mythics and rares are likely to suffer from being three-colour, ala Savage Knuckleblade and friends a few months ago, but you don't really need all three colours to play these ones. Within those cycles, Soulfire Grand Master is clearly very powerful simply by costing about less than one would have expected. Whisperwood Elemental seems due to fall, as I'm not even really sure what it supposedly does, if anything. Warden of the First Tree is getting a fair bit of attention and at $9 has room to go up or down. It could very well be overhyped, I haven't tested it so I don't know. I like the look if it on paper. Shaman of the Great Hunt is very powerful but it's red and I have trouble seeing it go anywhere but down. For similar reasons I think Flamewake Phoenix will be doing anything but rising. Crux of Fate is hard for me to evaluate, who thinks they've got it figured out? Worth playing in a non-Dragon deck? Soulflayer seems to inspire deckbuilding, so will be casually popular (and might be playable in its own right depending on enablers in the environment). Temporal Trespass is one of those cards to watch, I think.
What are your picks for undervalued cards? Overhyped cards? What trends do you expect to see with this set? What lessons from the past can be applied here to predict price movements?
Box value is somewhere around $100, which isn't much higher than what most people can get boxes for. I predict as a whole the set's value will remain stable because of this. Sets like Khans that start out with huge EBV often plummet as the market opens more product for singles rapidly, and once the set bottoms (often over-correcting to the downside) it will bounce up again until finally settling near $80. FR will probably slowly approach that figure without the wild price swings. Long term that may mean the set's value remains good and improves over time more than other sets that were opened to oblivion such as Return to Ravnica.
Things move quickly at this point in a set's lifespan, so I'll report here when I notice any major price moves, and update the tally in 24 to 48 hours or so.
Soulfire Grandmaster is more of a side board card in modern. Looks like a 10 dollar card to me just because it is in a small set. Most of this set has more commander appeal and that is not really great for value return.
Sideboard for what decks against what? Burn will just bolt it.
Edit: sorry, that was in response to wraith. Quotes are giving me some trouble at the moment.
Pretty much all rares except Taisgur are going to drop imo. I can't see ugin staying much over 15ish. Soulfire grand master is headed down to 10 afaik.
I would also love to see a tally for the alt art cards, if available. I traded for quite a few of them and i'd like to know if I should dump them now or hold. I assume the alt art ugin will hold good value.
Pretty much all rares except Taisgur are going to drop imo. I can't see ugin staying much over 15ish. Soulfire grand master is headed down to 10 afaik.
Cheers
im not sure about that... i think that many of them are totaly underrated currently and will rise. the dragons for example. most of them at least.
In the First big tournaments after release we will see a lot rares and mythics from this set in the top decks
And prises will jump to normal levels. Actually no-one knows what's really good, and what's not. Many sleepers in this set
im not sure about that... i think that many of them are totaly underrated currently and will rise. the dragons for example. most of them at least.
Underrating and undervaluing are different things. There are economic factors outside of game play that matter. The set cannot sustain more than 1-2 $20+ Mythics and 1-2 $10+ Rares. If you look at every other Mythic Era set the breakdown on the dragons should look like this:
WU - $.50
UB - $.50
BR - $.50
RG - $.50
GW - $.50
I thought there might be one that'd be worth more than $.50 but... nope. Compare them to the Leaders in Dragon's Maze who are all worth $.10-$.50. These are way less universally playable.
In the First big tournaments after release we will see a lot rares and mythics from this set in the top decks
And prises will to normal levels. Actually no-one knows what's really good, and what's not. Many sleepers in this set
In the First big tournaments after release we will see a lot rares and mythics from this set in the top decks and prices will FALL to normal levels. Actually People typically know what is really good, and what's not. 1-2 sleepers in this set like every other set.
well, actualy there is not a single rare worth more than 2$ i think? at least not more than 2€ on magic card market. and i would really wonder if this stays like this.
this is a small set, it will get opened way way less than khans.
lets be honest: in every other set in the last 4 years which is not khans, cards like rhino would cost as much as thragtusk when he was in standard. or at least nearly as much. the thing why many khans card are pretty low while still seing a lot of play is, that many many legacy and modern players opened this set. and sold nearly everything besides the fetches. thats why the overall value of the set is pretty low.
fate now, wont be opened for fetches by modern and legacy players. and its a small set, so it will be opened a lot less. in the moment any of the rare sees play in a tier 1 deck, even if its only in standard, it will rise to 5$+ instantly.
also dragons maze is not standard legal anymore. if any of those dragons sees standard play, it will instantly go over 5$ since those dragons have a lot of casual appeal, since they are dragons, they are legendary and they are pretty good compared to most other dragons (besides the obvious ones).
currently there is not much intersted in the rares of this set, because non of them look obviously broken. but there quite a few really playable cards under those rares and in the moment they see play they will rise.
i mean look at the history of small sets in the past. pretty every single card which saw some play in a competetive deck, rose over 5$ in the moment that happened.
What history backs that up? "i mean look at the history of small sets in the past. pretty every single card which saw some play in a competetive deck, rose over 5$ in the moment that happened." What cards are you talking about here?
Even silumgar, the drifting death at $.50? I thought she had a chance to be the UB finsiher since it comes down earlier than pearl lake ancient, has evasion, doesn't have any cost to protect itself, has a semi-relevant ability against some decks and has pro-crux-of-fate (at least the ones played by its controler). prognostic sphinx comes down earlier but cost 1-for-1 cards to protect and taps itself down in the process.
Even silumgar, the drifting death at $.50? I thought she had a chance to be the UB finsiher since it comes down earlier than pearl lake ancient, has evasion, doesn't have any cost to protect itself, has a semi-relevant ability against some decks and has pro-crux-of-fate (at least the ones played by its controler). prognostic sphinx comes down earlier but cost 1-for-1 cards to protect and taps itself down in the process.
Pearl Lake Ancient is a Mythic that costs $.50, so that's a fair comparison. Pearl Lake Ancient is also a 6 power finisher that can flash in. Hex proof is cool, but 3 power isn't going to cut it. BUT, it's not just that there won't be a huge demand for it - it's a Mythic Era rare and will need to be a 4-of in standard to break $3 and honestly, does anyone see a nearly pointless 6cmc creature being a 4-of?
born of gods: courser
jorney into nyx: temples, eidolon and manaconfluence
all rares from small set, which see play. and all of them were even over 10$ at some time.
Okay, so... which cards compare to those? Courser was a known commodity because people were at the peak of Oracle of Mul Daya Modern rage when that came out. What compares to the Temples? Playable dual lands at rare are almost always worth $7-$15 at their peak since Mythics were printed. I don't see Eidolon ever having gone above $8, but in any case it's important to note that Modern was a larger influence on the price than Standard. And Mana Confluence is like the dual lands - if there's one that's playable it will spike.
What you have here is good evidence that there are NOT many rares that are worth anything anymore. There are a few, but they need to be run as 4-ofs in Standard Decks that consistently do well and cross over to Modern. All of the value in a box is concentrated into the Mythic slot. This is great for people who want good playable cards for almost nothing, but bad for people who think there's money in the rare slot.
(previous tallies are located in the following posts: 1)
Mentor schools all:
1) Monastery Mentor (28)
2) Ugin the Spirit Dragon (28)
3) Soulfire Grand Master (19)
4) Whisperwood Elemental(10)
5) Brutal Hordechief (9)
6) Warden of the First Tree (9)
7) Shaman of the Great Hunt (8.5)
8) Crux of Fate(6.5)
9) Temporal Trespass (6)
10) Tasigur the Golden Fang (4.5)
11) Torrent Elemental (4.5)
12) Flamewake Phoenix (4)
13) Soulflayer (3.5)
14) Monastery Siege (3)
The card's most recent move is on right. means no movement. is a card that wasn't on the list last update. This is the update's hottest mover.(#)is price in USD incl. shipping here.
There are now just 14 cards are worth $3 or more, and therefore worth opening in a booster pack, as Alesha Who Smiles at Death drops off the Tally.
Ugin fell back a couple bucks as Mentor advanced, meeting at $28 (Mentor wins by alphabetical tie-break). Whisperwood Elemental surged ahead a couple bucks to $10, and I notice it's going for $12+ in a lot of places. More on that card, below. Hordechief, Warden, Shaman of the Great Hunt, Tasigur, and Torrent Elemental held fairly tightly and didn't move around on the tally much. I asked for opinions on Crux of Fate last time, because I'm having trouble evaluating it. Looks like it jumped about 60% in price since then, and is the top rare of the set. I'll ask again: who thinks they understand this card and where its value is headed?
Whisperwood Elemental moving up to 4th spot, combined with my total lack of understanding of how the card is supposed to be played, prompt me to open it up for discussion. What does this card combo with? What's the ideal play? Is it really a $12+ card?
Box value remains around $100 at the moment. That may even creep up toward $110 over the next week or so, but is expected to drop at least into the 90s soon after that, as a rush of product hits the market.
I would be very surprised if there are any sleepers.
All the card advantage providing rares cost too much to activate.
Wizards has been putting ridiculous conditions on cards. If you have a creature with power 4 or greater and your creature dies, if you have another creature then sacrifice a creature and then pay heaps of mana: draw some cards and gain some life.
Sphinx's Revelation might have been a bit crazy but at least you got cards and life without jumping through hoops. There needs to be some sort of inbetween.
All the creatures in this set look bad because they don't get through Siege Rhino. Did Wizards really think making it 3 colors would be some giant drawback when they gave us fetchlands, painlands along with temples?
It's most likely the best cards in this set will be uncommons such as Valorous Stance and Wild Slash. They will probably go up to $2 or more. Get your playsets early.
Edit: There are a few flying creatures that might be good because they go over Rhino and do well against Wingmate Roc. Keep an eye out for any action there.
Well the longest time can be is 1.5 years, because that is when Dragon's Maze was. And this set is a whole lot better than Dragon's Maze. Though as I'm tinkering with decks, the big chase rares seem less and less powerful, though there are certainly some quality cards at rare. The problem is that a quality card at rare still just doesn't mean much for value.
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(previous tallies are located in the following posts: nil)
A noticeable lack of fetchlands:
1) Ugin the Spirit Dragon (32)
2) Monastery Mentor (26)
3) Soulfire Grand Master (22)
4) Warden of the First Tree (10)
5) Brutal Hordechief (9)
6) Whisperwood Elemental (9)
7) Shaman of the Great Hunt (8)
8) Temporal Trespass (6)
9) Torrent Elemental (5)
10) Tasigur the Golden Fang (4.5)
11) Crux of Fate (4)
12) Flamewake Phoenix (4)
13) Soulflayer (3.5)
14) Alesha Who Smiles at Death (3)
15) Monastery Siege (3)
The card's most recent move is on right. means no movement. is a card that wasn't on the list last update. This is the update's hottest mover. (#) is price in USD incl. shipping here.
A modest 15 cards are worth $3 or more, and therefore worth opening in a booster pack. Born and JiN each had 14, Theros began with 38, M15 with 20, and KoT with 29.
Comparing this initial tally to that of KoT, the first three cards are roughly the same (mythics in the 20-30 range). After that, FR is clearly the inferior set, as prices drop to 10 instead of to 15 with KoT's fetchlands. And of course, this tally (15) is half the size KoT's was (29). We have to keep in mind that KoT was a larger set.
I think Ugin will remain fairly high, although it should come down toward $20 while in print. Monastery Mentor is a really brutal token generator, one of the best the game has seen, so it's hard to see it falling too hard. I think the three-colour mythics and rares are likely to suffer from being three-colour, ala Savage Knuckleblade and friends a few months ago, but you don't really need all three colours to play these ones. Within those cycles, Soulfire Grand Master is clearly very powerful simply by costing about less than one would have expected. Whisperwood Elemental seems due to fall, as I'm not even really sure what it supposedly does, if anything. Warden of the First Tree is getting a fair bit of attention and at $9 has room to go up or down. It could very well be overhyped, I haven't tested it so I don't know. I like the look if it on paper. Shaman of the Great Hunt is very powerful but it's red and I have trouble seeing it go anywhere but down. For similar reasons I think Flamewake Phoenix will be doing anything but rising. Crux of Fate is hard for me to evaluate, who thinks they've got it figured out? Worth playing in a non-Dragon deck? Soulflayer seems to inspire deckbuilding, so will be casually popular (and might be playable in its own right depending on enablers in the environment). Temporal Trespass is one of those cards to watch, I think.
What are your picks for undervalued cards? Overhyped cards? What trends do you expect to see with this set? What lessons from the past can be applied here to predict price movements?
Box value is somewhere around $100, which isn't much higher than what most people can get boxes for. I predict as a whole the set's value will remain stable because of this. Sets like Khans that start out with huge EBV often plummet as the market opens more product for singles rapidly, and once the set bottoms (often over-correcting to the downside) it will bounce up again until finally settling near $80. FR will probably slowly approach that figure without the wild price swings. Long term that may mean the set's value remains good and improves over time more than other sets that were opened to oblivion such as Return to Ravnica.
Things move quickly at this point in a set's lifespan, so I'll report here when I notice any major price moves, and update the tally in 24 to 48 hours or so.
.
Multiplayer Decks- Memnarch - Animar, Soul of Elements - Zur, the Enchanter - Atraxa, Praetors' Voice - Food Chain Tazri - Teysa Karlov
Modern BUMill and Bant Spirits.
Thank you Xenphire for the signature!
Edit: sorry, that was in response to wraith. Quotes are giving me some trouble at the moment.
Multiplayer Decks- Memnarch - Animar, Soul of Elements - Zur, the Enchanter - Atraxa, Praetors' Voice - Food Chain Tazri - Teysa Karlov
Modern BUMill and Bant Spirits.
Thank you Xenphire for the signature!
Cheers
im not sure about that... i think that many of them are totaly underrated currently and will rise. the dragons for example. most of them at least.
Unfortunately only the super obvious Monastery Mentor is worth the money.
Warden is bad. Ugin is bad. Hordechief is bad. Will get more into why they are bad later.
The Mentor will probably go up like Nissa.
And prises will jump to normal levels. Actually no-one knows what's really good, and what's not. Many sleepers in this set
WU - $.50
UB - $.50
BR - $.50
RG - $.50
GW - $.50
I thought there might be one that'd be worth more than $.50 but... nope. Compare them to the Leaders in Dragon's Maze who are all worth $.10-$.50. These are way less universally playable.
In the First big tournaments after release we will see a lot rares and mythics from this set in the top decks and prices will FALL to normal levels. Actually People typically know what is really good, and what's not. 1-2 sleepers in this set like every other set.
Really, this set is like most other sets.
WUBRGPauper Battle BoxWUBRG ... and why I am not a fan of Wayne Reynolds' Illustrations.
this is a small set, it will get opened way way less than khans.
lets be honest: in every other set in the last 4 years which is not khans, cards like rhino would cost as much as thragtusk when he was in standard. or at least nearly as much. the thing why many khans card are pretty low while still seing a lot of play is, that many many legacy and modern players opened this set. and sold nearly everything besides the fetches. thats why the overall value of the set is pretty low.
fate now, wont be opened for fetches by modern and legacy players. and its a small set, so it will be opened a lot less. in the moment any of the rare sees play in a tier 1 deck, even if its only in standard, it will rise to 5$+ instantly.
also dragons maze is not standard legal anymore. if any of those dragons sees standard play, it will instantly go over 5$ since those dragons have a lot of casual appeal, since they are dragons, they are legendary and they are pretty good compared to most other dragons (besides the obvious ones).
currently there is not much intersted in the rares of this set, because non of them look obviously broken. but there quite a few really playable cards under those rares and in the moment they see play they will rise.
i mean look at the history of small sets in the past. pretty every single card which saw some play in a competetive deck, rose over 5$ in the moment that happened.
WUBRGPauper Battle BoxWUBRG ... and why I am not a fan of Wayne Reynolds' Illustrations.
Pearl Lake Ancient is a Mythic that costs $.50, so that's a fair comparison. Pearl Lake Ancient is also a 6 power finisher that can flash in. Hex proof is cool, but 3 power isn't going to cut it. BUT, it's not just that there won't be a huge demand for it - it's a Mythic Era rare and will need to be a 4-of in standard to break $3 and honestly, does anyone see a nearly pointless 6cmc creature being a 4-of?
WUBRGPauper Battle BoxWUBRG ... and why I am not a fan of Wayne Reynolds' Illustrations.
jorney into nyx: temples, eidolon and manaconfluence
all rares from small set, which see play. and all of them were even over 10$ at some time.
Okay, so... which cards compare to those? Courser was a known commodity because people were at the peak of Oracle of Mul Daya Modern rage when that came out. What compares to the Temples? Playable dual lands at rare are almost always worth $7-$15 at their peak since Mythics were printed. I don't see Eidolon ever having gone above $8, but in any case it's important to note that Modern was a larger influence on the price than Standard. And Mana Confluence is like the dual lands - if there's one that's playable it will spike.
What you have here is good evidence that there are NOT many rares that are worth anything anymore. There are a few, but they need to be run as 4-ofs in Standard Decks that consistently do well and cross over to Modern. All of the value in a box is concentrated into the Mythic slot. This is great for people who want good playable cards for almost nothing, but bad for people who think there's money in the rare slot.
WUBRGPauper Battle BoxWUBRG ... and why I am not a fan of Wayne Reynolds' Illustrations.
Mentor schools all:
1) Monastery Mentor (28)
2) Ugin the Spirit Dragon (28)
3) Soulfire Grand Master (19)
4) Whisperwood Elemental (10)
5) Brutal Hordechief (9)
6) Warden of the First Tree (9)
7) Shaman of the Great Hunt (8.5)
8) Crux of Fate (6.5)
9) Temporal Trespass (6)
10) Tasigur the Golden Fang (4.5)
11) Torrent Elemental (4.5)
12) Flamewake Phoenix (4)
13) Soulflayer (3.5)
14) Monastery Siege (3)
The card's most recent move is on right. means no movement. is a card that wasn't on the list last update. This is the update's hottest mover. (#) is price in USD incl. shipping here.
There are now just 14 cards are worth $3 or more, and therefore worth opening in a booster pack, as Alesha Who Smiles at Death drops off the Tally.
Ugin fell back a couple bucks as Mentor advanced, meeting at $28 (Mentor wins by alphabetical tie-break). Whisperwood Elemental surged ahead a couple bucks to $10, and I notice it's going for $12+ in a lot of places. More on that card, below. Hordechief, Warden, Shaman of the Great Hunt, Tasigur, and Torrent Elemental held fairly tightly and didn't move around on the tally much. I asked for opinions on Crux of Fate last time, because I'm having trouble evaluating it. Looks like it jumped about 60% in price since then, and is the top rare of the set. I'll ask again: who thinks they understand this card and where its value is headed?
Whisperwood Elemental moving up to 4th spot, combined with my total lack of understanding of how the card is supposed to be played, prompt me to open it up for discussion. What does this card combo with? What's the ideal play? Is it really a $12+ card?
Box value remains around $100 at the moment. That may even creep up toward $110 over the next week or so, but is expected to drop at least into the 90s soon after that, as a rush of product hits the market.
.
I would be very surprised if there are any sleepers.
All the card advantage providing rares cost too much to activate.
Wizards has been putting ridiculous conditions on cards. If you have a creature with power 4 or greater and your creature dies, if you have another creature then sacrifice a creature and then pay heaps of mana: draw some cards and gain some life.
Sphinx's Revelation might have been a bit crazy but at least you got cards and life without jumping through hoops. There needs to be some sort of inbetween.
All the creatures in this set look bad because they don't get through Siege Rhino. Did Wizards really think making it 3 colors would be some giant drawback when they gave us fetchlands, painlands along with temples?
It's most likely the best cards in this set will be uncommons such as Valorous Stance and Wild Slash. They will probably go up to $2 or more. Get your playsets early.
Edit: There are a few flying creatures that might be good because they go over Rhino and do well against Wingmate Roc. Keep an eye out for any action there.