Adding and removing counters are a cost, not part of the effect, and so cannot be reponded to. By the time you can cast Lightning Bolt, he has already gained or lost his counters, and the ability is on the stack, independant of the source. If you manage to kill him with your Bolt, his ability will still resolve as normal.
(In your first example, he'll be reduced to 2 loyalty, and in your second, he'll already be dead, and not a legal target.)
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DCI Level 2 Judge
If your question is "What would a judge do is this situation?", only one person's answer is relevant, and that is the Head Judge at your event. I can quote the rules, but I don't know your HJ.
Gath's answer is correct, that putting counters on is part of the "cost" so you dont get priority till they are already on him... just to clarify you cant "hit" jace with lightning bolt... lightning bolt can target only players and creatures. What you would need to do is target your opponent, and then when the bolt resolves you get the option to redirect the damage to the PW.
this might seem like sematics, but there are alot of times its important, for example he will have to decide whether to counter or not, before you decide if he or his PW takes the heat... also if he haves a Ivory Mask or a CoP:red then that will likely foul your plans
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Say jace citp then the opponent tries to burn him with the +2 both players draw a card on the stack.
Now say jace citp and gets to 10 counters, then with the mill on the stack you hit him with the bolt, what happens?
(In your first example, he'll be reduced to 2 loyalty, and in your second, he'll already be dead, and not a legal target.)
If your question is "What would a judge do is this situation?", only one person's answer is relevant, and that is the Head Judge at your event. I can quote the rules, but I don't know your HJ.
this might seem like sematics, but there are alot of times its important, for example he will have to decide whether to counter or not, before you decide if he or his PW takes the heat... also if he haves a Ivory Mask or a CoP:red then that will likely foul your plans