Hey guys, just a little math question for anyone who knows the answer.
I'm a big modern player, and with the release of theros and the Thoughtseize reprint, I've been debating buying a box. Since thoughtseize is being printed as a rare and not a mythic, the chances of packing one are much better. My local shop is pushing me to pre-order a Theros booster box for $100 bucks flat, I know Theros is a huge money set, but I'm wondering if it's enough for me to buy the box, or just take the 100 bucks and buy a set of thoughtseize with money let over.
What are the odds of packing a few in a booster box?
Is it worth it due to the 540 cards I'll get?
Hey guys, just a little math question for anyone who knows the answer.
I'm a big modern player, and with the release of theros and the Thoughtseize reprint, I've been debating buying a box. Since thoughtseize is being printed as a rare and not a mythic, the chances of packing one are much better. My local shop is pushing me to pre-order a Theros booster box for $100 bucks flat, I know Theros is a huge money set, but I'm wondering if it's enough for me to buy the box, or just take the 100 bucks and buy a set of thoughtseize with money let over.
What are the odds of packing a few in a booster box?
Is it worth it due to the 540 cards I'll get?
Opinions?
First lets do some math. I will be using TCGplayer a reference
So far, using preoder prices Theros has 7 mythics at 10 dollars or more. And 8 mythics at 10 dollars or less. Now for the rares.
Theros has one rare at 25 dollars or more(Thoughtseize)
And 49 rares at 10 dollars or less
So no, I wouldn't be buying sealed product for this set.
And for further information Theros has 41 rares under the cost of the booster pack, a whopping 41!
There are 53 rares in Theros. You get approx. 31-32 rares/box. Basically you have about a 60% chance to pull a thoughtseize from a box. Honestly, if you are only looking for thoughtseize, I would just buy the thoughtseizes and save yourself the trouble. While the overall average box value may be at approx. $130 right now, that number is unlikely to hold out by release day, and likely drop down to right around your box cost by the time you would have to move what you opened to get your money back or towards trying to get the thoughtseizes you are looking for.
Actually for any given rare the chance to pull one or more in a box is about 45%. For a mythic it's about 26%. So right, if you need a certain card, buy singles.
Ah ok, thanks. I was just told this was looking like a great money set with tons of value. Sure, it's not modern masters, but neither is the price.
Basically what I'am getting is the extra cards MIGHT be worth it and there is no sure chance I'll even get 1 thoughtseize, and money is better spent playing the playset.
Should I buy the playset now on pre-order? Or does anyone predict a price drop? I personally don't since it is such a serious staple.
Since Thoughtseize has plunged from $70 to $40 for the original, there's likely to be a big drop for the reprint - maybe as low as $15, but not for a few months yet.
Since Thoughtseize has plunged from $70 to $40 for the original, there's likely to be a big drop for the reprint - maybe as low as $15, but not for a few months yet.
Thoughtseize should drop further once the set is released and the market gets flooded from all the initial opening. I could certainly see it drop to $15 on ebay for the Theros version for example. Just have to be patient. I certainly don't expect it to go up from where its pre-selling at now :p.
Unless you are a dealer, and hopefully have a storefront out of which to sell singles at a premium, opening boxes isn't really worthwhile (Barring very effective box mapping).
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On average, Magic players are worse at new card evaluation than almost every other skill, except perhaps sideboarding.
Whoever told you this.... never listen to them or take money advice from them again. This set is a terrible money set with little value
This. I don't know who was pushing you to buy a box, but they were either very uninformed or lying. Theros is most certainly not looking like a money set. Don't get me wrong, I like the set, but I wouldn't buy boxes as a value prop.
Plus as a modern player buying boxes of the latest Standard release will virtually never be worth it for you. Just wait a couple of months for the market to flood and buy the stuff you need in singles form. Thoughtseize will drop to $20, maybe even a little lower. You'll be able to get an entire playset of them, plus other stuff you need, like Chained to the Rocks, for the same cost as a box. (and from that box you would be lucky to get one of each)
Unless you are a dealer, and hopefully have a storefront out of which to sell singles at a premium, opening boxes isn't really worthwhile (Barring very effective box mapping).
This, pretty much. A set could technically have an average box value $30 higher than the price, but unless you have the means to actually get value out of each and every card and overcome the shipping costs plus fees, you'll just be sitting on a pile of theoretical value, rather than actual value such as a playset of thoughtseize
Whoever told you this.... never listen to them or take money advice from them again. This set is a terrible money set with little value
To be fair it was my local shop owner. He was a but eccentric but I'm no fool, I'm a skeptic. Which is why I came here looking for advice. I get all my life advice from the internet!!
No buy seriously, I'd rather have neutral party opinion than seller's. And I suppose I wouldn't get the cards I was looking for and the rest of the the box would be modern unplayable after careful thought. So I'm just gonna cross my fingers and hope for 15 thoughseize and get my playset then.
To be fair it was my local shop owner. He was a but eccentric but I'm no fool, I'm a skeptic. Which is why I came here looking for advice. I get all my life advice from the internet!! .
Well, now you know your local shop owner will lie to you to get your money.
No buy seriously, I'd rather have neutral party opinion than seller's. And I suppose I wouldn't get the cards I was looking for and the rest of the the box would be modern unplayable after careful thought. So I'm just gonna cross my fingers and hope for 15 thoughseize and get my playset then.
Yeah, it's going to be pretty unlikely that any set is worth it to buy a box if you're looking for modern cards. RTR was better than most because of shock lands + a few things like deathrite shaman and abrupt decay, but even then you'd be unlikely to break even.
Regarding the price of thoughtseize, it could hit $15, but I'm skeptical. I figure it's going to be a pretty popular card in standard (even though I don't think it's nearly as good in standard), plus basically every legacy & modern player who doesn't already have a playset will be looking to buy or trade for them. On top of that, it's the kind of card that players and especially stores will hoard for future profit/trade bait.
I pre-ordered my playset at $83 and I doubt I'll regret it. I don't think it'll drop much below $20 each, and if it does it won't be for very long. I'm betting a lot of the initial stock that "floods" the market is already accounted for in pre-orders. If it does hit $15, definitely snap them up... once it starts climbing again, it's going to keep climbing.
To be fair it was my local shop owner. He was a but eccentric but I'm no fool, I'm a skeptic. Which is why I came here looking for advice. I get all my life advice from the internet!!
No buy seriously, I'd rather have neutral party opinion than seller's. And I suppose I wouldn't get the cards I was looking for and the rest of the the box would be modern unplayable after careful thought. So I'm just gonna cross my fingers and hope for 15 thoughseize and get my playset then.
Your local shop owner told you buying his boxes would guarantee serious money? If that were true, why wouldn't he open them himself?
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I'm a big modern player, and with the release of theros and the Thoughtseize reprint, I've been debating buying a box. Since thoughtseize is being printed as a rare and not a mythic, the chances of packing one are much better. My local shop is pushing me to pre-order a Theros booster box for $100 bucks flat, I know Theros is a huge money set, but I'm wondering if it's enough for me to buy the box, or just take the 100 bucks and buy a set of thoughtseize with money let over.
What are the odds of packing a few in a booster box?
Is it worth it due to the 540 cards I'll get?
Opinions?
First lets do some math. I will be using TCGplayer a reference
So far, using preoder prices Theros has 7 mythics at 10 dollars or more. And 8 mythics at 10 dollars or less. Now for the rares.
Theros has one rare at 25 dollars or more(Thoughtseize)
And 49 rares at 10 dollars or less
So no, I wouldn't be buying sealed product for this set.
And for further information Theros has 41 rares under the cost of the booster pack, a whopping 41!
Dega midrange 1-0
Ah ok, thanks. I was just told this was looking like a great money set with tons of value. Sure, it's not modern masters, but neither is the price.
Basically what I'am getting is the extra cards MIGHT be worth it and there is no sure chance I'll even get 1 thoughtseize, and money is better spent playing the playset.
Should I buy the playset now on pre-order? Or does anyone predict a price drop? I personally don't since it is such a serious staple.
Does anyone else agree with this?
Thoughtseize should drop further once the set is released and the market gets flooded from all the initial opening. I could certainly see it drop to $15 on ebay for the Theros version for example. Just have to be patient. I certainly don't expect it to go up from where its pre-selling at now :p.
Whoever told you this.... never listen to them or take money advice from them again. This set is a terrible money set with little value
This. I don't know who was pushing you to buy a box, but they were either very uninformed or lying. Theros is most certainly not looking like a money set. Don't get me wrong, I like the set, but I wouldn't buy boxes as a value prop.
Plus as a modern player buying boxes of the latest Standard release will virtually never be worth it for you. Just wait a couple of months for the market to flood and buy the stuff you need in singles form. Thoughtseize will drop to $20, maybe even a little lower. You'll be able to get an entire playset of them, plus other stuff you need, like Chained to the Rocks, for the same cost as a box. (and from that box you would be lucky to get one of each)
This, pretty much. A set could technically have an average box value $30 higher than the price, but unless you have the means to actually get value out of each and every card and overcome the shipping costs plus fees, you'll just be sitting on a pile of theoretical value, rather than actual value such as a playset of thoughtseize
To be fair it was my local shop owner. He was a but eccentric but I'm no fool, I'm a skeptic. Which is why I came here looking for advice. I get all my life advice from the internet!!
No buy seriously, I'd rather have neutral party opinion than seller's. And I suppose I wouldn't get the cards I was looking for and the rest of the the box would be modern unplayable after careful thought. So I'm just gonna cross my fingers and hope for 15 thoughseize and get my playset then.
Well, now you know your local shop owner will lie to you to get your money.
Yeah, it's going to be pretty unlikely that any set is worth it to buy a box if you're looking for modern cards. RTR was better than most because of shock lands + a few things like deathrite shaman and abrupt decay, but even then you'd be unlikely to break even.
Regarding the price of thoughtseize, it could hit $15, but I'm skeptical. I figure it's going to be a pretty popular card in standard (even though I don't think it's nearly as good in standard), plus basically every legacy & modern player who doesn't already have a playset will be looking to buy or trade for them. On top of that, it's the kind of card that players and especially stores will hoard for future profit/trade bait.
I pre-ordered my playset at $83 and I doubt I'll regret it. I don't think it'll drop much below $20 each, and if it does it won't be for very long. I'm betting a lot of the initial stock that "floods" the market is already accounted for in pre-orders. If it does hit $15, definitely snap them up... once it starts climbing again, it's going to keep climbing.
Your local shop owner told you buying his boxes would guarantee serious money? If that were true, why wouldn't he open them himself?