My present rating is 1825. I won my local FNM. 3-0 in swiss. then won in top 4 and finals. What are the chances of making 1850, so I can get a bye for GP Nashville?
Extremely slim. Given that how much your rating goes up/down by is based on your opponent's rating and most opponents at an FNM aren't even above 1700 (unless your area's just that skewed), you'd need +9 rating on average per round to do it.
Extremely slim. Given that how much your rating goes up/down by is based on your opponent's rating and most opponents at an FNM aren't even above 1700 (unless your area's just that skewed), you'd need +9 rating on average per round to do it.
Yeah, +5 per round then, but even so, you're not likely going to get that unless your opponents collectively have high ratings too. Kicking around a bunch of sub-1600 guys when you're 1800+ isn't very good for your rating—but then again if your FNM has a bunch of high-rating people, who knows? All I can say is that for my FNMs at least, only like 1-2 people even break 1650.
you really shouldn't expect to get 25 rating points out of a single FNM. With a K-value of 8, you can expect to gain at most around points out of a X-0 FNM, with considering your rating and the anticipated rating of the average FNM player, that's a huge jump anyway.
what were your opponent's ratings? the rating of your opponents determines how many points you get from each win. here's an article that can better explain the rating system than i can, but based on the math of determining how much you gain for a win, for you to gain the 25 points from going 5-0 at an 8k tourney, your opponents would have to have been an average of about 100 rating points higher than you are, in each mach, so your opoonents would have to have an average rating of 1936.
the only events that iirc has a K value of anything higher than 8 are GP's and PTQ/States type events. Even prereleases are K8.
Edit, found the K value charts in a TO handbook.
D.2 - K-Value Explanations
8K: This is used for all premier events directed at the casual player, such as Friday NightMagic.
16K: This K-value is the default for all events. A certified judge is not required and there are no mandatory rules enforcement levels* (RELs) or deck verification requirements.
24K: Organizers may apply for this K-value if they:
Use a certified judge;
Use a minimum of REL 2*;
Use deck verification procedures;
Have some faith that 16+ players will participate;
Be advertised at least 30 days in advance;
Be advertised beyond wizards website;
It cannot be a premiere event (prerelease, launch party, GPT, etc...); and
The event must have a significant prize package (in excess of $1,000 USD retail value-cash and/or prizes).
NOTE: While organizers must apply for the change at least 30 days in advance, the change in K-value will not process until after the event (this is to verify player count and head judge level).
32K: Organizers may apply for this K-value if they:
Use a judge certified of Level 2 or higher;
Use a minimum of REL 3*;
Use deck verification procedures; and
Have some faith that 32+ players will participate;
Be advertised at least 30 days in advance;
Be advertised beyond wizards website;
It cannot be a premiere event (prerelease, launch party, GPT, etc...); and
The event must have a significant prize package (in excess of $1,000 USD retail value-cash and/or prizes).
NOTE: While organizers must apply for the change at least 30 days in advance, the change in K-value will not process until after the event (this is to verify player count and head judge level).
40K: This K-value is reserved for select premier events, such as Grand Prix and National Championships. This K-value is not available for general DCI-sanctioned events. See Magic: The Gathering Premier Event Descriptions for more information.
48K: This K-value is reserved for select premier events, such as Pro Tour™ and World Championships. This K-value is not available for general DCI-sanctioned events. See Magic: The Gathering Premier Event Descriptions for more information. *For more information regarding Rules Enforcement Levels (RELs), see the DCI Infraction Procedure Guide.
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16 is indeed the default. FNM's K-value is special, since FNM is deliberately meant to be more about casual fun than competitively gaming for ratings.
This is why I play two Standard tournaments a week: FNM for fun, and then another Wednesday nights that's somewhat competitive (and, at 16K, makes up for the fact that my rating goes down overall if I 3-1 my FNM).
My present rating is 1825. I won my local FNM. 3-0 in swiss. then won in top 4 and finals. What are the chances of making 1850, so I can get a bye for GP Nashville?
In total you had a 5-0 record in an 8K tournament. Let's for a moment assume that you played against opponents with similar ratings to yourself, in which case you would gain 4 points per win. In that case, your rating would be 1825+(5x4)=1845 rating. Obviously, +4 points per match will not be enough. As others have said, if you gained 5 points per match you would get there, but for that to happen your opponents would have to have about 100 rating points more than you. In other words, it is unlikely that you will have 1850+ total rating after that tournament.
K=The biggest amount of rating you can gain or lose in a single match.
That is how K-values work: Low K-values means low risk and low potential rewards for your rating, while risk and potential rewards increase together as the K-value gets higher. 8K is the lowest K-value the DCI uses (48 being the highest), and as far as I can recall it is only used on FNM, prerelease and release tournaments.
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So it likely won't happen.
+9??? wouldn't I only need +5 per round?
Yeah, +5 per round then, but even so, you're not likely going to get that unless your opponents collectively have high ratings too. Kicking around a bunch of sub-1600 guys when you're 1800+ isn't very good for your rating—but then again if your FNM has a bunch of high-rating people, who knows? All I can say is that for my FNMs at least, only like 1-2 people even break 1650.
what were your opponent's ratings? the rating of your opponents determines how many points you get from each win. here's an article that can better explain the rating system than i can, but based on the math of determining how much you gain for a win, for you to gain the 25 points from going 5-0 at an 8k tourney, your opponents would have to have been an average of about 100 rating points higher than you are, in each mach, so your opoonents would have to have an average rating of 1936.
Edit, found the K value charts in a TO handbook.
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Edit: Or 16k really is the default, apparently (just FNM-type events being 8k). Either or.
This is why I play two Standard tournaments a week: FNM for fun, and then another Wednesday nights that's somewhat competitive (and, at 16K, makes up for the fact that my rating goes down overall if I 3-1 my FNM).
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In total you had a 5-0 record in an 8K tournament. Let's for a moment assume that you played against opponents with similar ratings to yourself, in which case you would gain 4 points per win. In that case, your rating would be 1825+(5x4)=1845 rating. Obviously, +4 points per match will not be enough. As others have said, if you gained 5 points per match you would get there, but for that to happen your opponents would have to have about 100 rating points more than you. In other words, it is unlikely that you will have 1850+ total rating after that tournament.
K=The biggest amount of rating you can gain or lose in a single match.
That is how K-values work: Low K-values means low risk and low potential rewards for your rating, while risk and potential rewards increase together as the K-value gets higher. 8K is the lowest K-value the DCI uses (48 being the highest), and as far as I can recall it is only used on FNM, prerelease and release tournaments.