Last Thursday, Wizards announced that the paper release date for Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths and Commander 2020 decks would be pushed back to May 15th, 2020 for North America, Europe, Latin America, and Australia/New Zealand (the original release date was April 24, 2020). I believe it is likely the physical release date Ikoria set and Commander 2020 decks will be delayed even further than May 15th, 2020.
There are three primary reasons related to the Coronavirus pandemic that Wizards cited for the delay:
The ability for Wizards to distribute and ship the product has been fundamentally disrupted.
The safety of those working in the distribution and shipping centers are in jeopardy.
Most merchants that sell Magic products are closed for business (i.e. Hundreds of LGS's, Gamestop, Barnes and Nobles)
It is incredibly optimistic to the point where its unrealistic and borderline irresponsible to expect that these problems will be resolved in only three weeks after the original start date.
In the United States the Coronavirus pandemic is still getting worse. The scientists, doctors and experts agree that the apex of the virus hasn't occurred yet. The economy and businesses will be fundamentally disrupted for months throughout the world, especially in the United States. Leaders in major states and cities are already acknowledging that store front businesses will need to be closed for several more additional weeks if not months including the governors of New York, California and Illinois.
Until the pandemic is under control, we shouldn't expect to see a complete return to normalcy for business of new releases for Magic the Gathering sets. The same can be said about a return to normalcy for movie releases, the NBA season beginning, Apple and Nike stores opening or Disneyworld opening up to the public again. These things are very unlikely to happen in less than 2 months.
I believe Wizards already knows this which is one of the primary reasons they even acknowledged the release date could be pushed back further in the announcement:
We will continue to monitor these dates and make updates as necessary.
At this rate, in addition to expecting these sets to be delayed further. I wouldn't be surprised if Core 2021 and other future products including the Secret Lair Fetchland edition, Zendikar Rising and Signature Spellbook: Chandra to be delayed.
Questions to consider for discussion:
The physical release date for Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths and Commander 2020 decks is currently scheduled for May 15, 2020, do you believe this date will be delayed further due to the Coronavirus pandemic?
If the set were to be delayed, when would the sets be released? Would they just push back everything a few months, or release Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths and Commander 2020 at the same time as another set down the line?
If the release isn't delayed further, how much will the virus impact how much time and money people will be willing to spend on the new set during the onset of the Coronavirus pandemic?
If your LGS was open and holding a traditional in store prerelease for the Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths set and Commander 2020 decks on May 15th, 2020, would you attend? If not, why not?
Didn't Trump say they want to reopen everything by easter?
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How i feel about competitive players and casual players in EDH: The competitive are german tourists, the casual are italian tourists, both in a italian beach. The italians asking themselves "why are the germans here?" make a legitimate question, the answer is because the beach is beautiful, no matter the country you came from. The italians wanting to ban the germans are dumb, because if the germans pay for their stay and follow the rules like everyone else, they have the right to be in the beach. Hovewer, if the germans started to ask themselves "why are the italians here?"... they would be dumb as hell.
They'll have to stay closed until June probably, that's more realistic.
Even June seems far too optimistic. Until we have a vaccine or a comprehensive global testing system in place to detect and quarantine/treat infected people, relaxation of aggressive suppression strategies (like social distancing and closing non-essential services) is asking for additional waves of infection rate spikes. A vaccine is still 12+ months out at best, and despite advances in rapid testing I'm not confident we're returning to any sort of normalcy (as most envision it, at least) in under three months. Honestly, I'm just going to be grateful if we as a globe have this pandemic under any sort of control by the end of the calendar year.
I really don't want to be right, obviously, but if I am, WotC is going to have to seriously reassess its release strategies for products going forward.
They'll have to stay closed until June probably, that's more realistic.
Even June seems far too optimistic. Until we have a vaccine or a comprehensive global testing system in place to detect and quarantine/treat infected people, relaxation of aggressive suppression strategies (like social distancing and closing non-essential services) is asking for additional waves of infection rate spikes. A vaccine is still 12+ months out at best, and despite advances in rapid testing I'm not confident we're returning to any sort of normalcy (as most envision it, at least) in under three months. Honestly, I'm just going to be grateful if we as a globe have this pandemic under any sort of control by the end of the calendar year.
I really don't want to be right, obviously, but if I am, WotC is going to have to seriously reassess its release strategies for products going forward.
I agree that we won't be anywhere near life being normal by June, but things don't have to go back to normal entirely for there not to be new releases and products. We can't be at mass peak of pandemic, but things don't have to be perfect. I mean, do you really think Apple isn't going to release any new iPhones or Macbooks over the next 12 months? Somethings might be forced to be fundamentally changed for several months, for example, reopening Disneyland or packed movie theater releases but I think a physical release of a Magic set might be okay months ahead.
I still think June is probably a little too early, but I could see a late summer physical release for Ikoria and Commander 2020 (Early August perhaps)
In addition to hoping Wizards would help the LGS through this troubling time, I wonder what would the government do to help keep small stores like LGS alive.
I thought this PSA was from the Department of Redundancy Department.
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Playing since 1994: Currently MAGS (HomeBrew),Standard & Pauper (Pioneer and Modern are degenerate trash formats)
STOP using "dude/bro" as a pejorative or insult. Grow up.
Margaret Thatcher: “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”
Benjamin Franklin: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Martin Luther King Jr.: "I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."
They'll have to stay closed until June probably, that's more realistic.
Even June seems far too optimistic. Until we have a vaccine or a comprehensive global testing system in place to detect and quarantine/treat infected people, relaxation of aggressive suppression strategies (like social distancing and closing non-essential services) is asking for additional waves of infection rate spikes. A vaccine is still 12+ months out at best, and despite advances in rapid testing I'm not confident we're returning to any sort of normalcy (as most envision it, at least) in under three months. Honestly, I'm just going to be grateful if we as a globe have this pandemic under any sort of control by the end of the calendar year.
I really don't want to be right, obviously, but if I am, WotC is going to have to seriously reassess its release strategies for products going forward.
I agree that we won't be anywhere near life being normal by June, but things don't have to go back to normal entirely for there not to be new releases and products. We can't be at mass peak of pandemic, but things don't have to be perfect. I mean, do you really think Apple isn't going to release any new iPhones or Macbooks over the next 12 months? Somethings might be forced to be fundamentally changed for several months, for example, reopening Disneyland or packed movie theater releases but I think a physical release of a Magic set might be okay months ahead.
I still think June is probably a little too early, but I could see a late summer physical release for Ikoria and Commander 2020 (Early August perhaps)
How would people play physical card games?
In my country, we're being advised to not gather in groups of any size (they've said 5-10 with caution), remain two metres from other people at all times, and that if you don't live with them you don't visit them. A lot of countries are on complete lockdown, with the vast majority of businesses and services closed to limit exposure and big fines for being found subverting the lockdown without reason. Not to mention that coronavirus can remain on cardboard for up to 24 hours. Until something significant changes the scenario, I don't see any of that going away anytime soon.
In addition to hoping Wizards would help the LGS through this troubling time, I wonder what would the government do to help keep small stores like LGS alive.
Depends on your country. Many are offering payroll assistance (anywhere from 75-90% depending on country) to smaller employers to make it easier for them to keep staff employed and paid even if not working. Some are offering one-time grants to small businesses, others have pressured the banks to either defer loan payments over the next few months or outright waive those payments entirely. I've seen some countries (or individual states/provinces/territories within) issue moratoriums on evictions. Honestly, this is going to be hard on small businesses without significant and longterm assistance from government, and given that some countries haven't even formulated a competent response to the likely loss of life, I do not have confidence that small businesses (like LGSs) will receive the robust assistance they'll need to survive either.
They'll have to stay closed until June probably, that's more realistic.
Even June seems far too optimistic. Until we have a vaccine or a comprehensive global testing system in place to detect and quarantine/treat infected people, relaxation of aggressive suppression strategies (like social distancing and closing non-essential services) is asking for additional waves of infection rate spikes. A vaccine is still 12+ months out at best, and despite advances in rapid testing I'm not confident we're returning to any sort of normalcy (as most envision it, at least) in under three months. Honestly, I'm just going to be grateful if we as a globe have this pandemic under any sort of control by the end of the calendar year.
I really don't want to be right, obviously, but if I am, WotC is going to have to seriously reassess its release strategies for products going forward.
I agree that we won't be anywhere near life being normal by June, but things don't have to go back to normal entirely for there not to be new releases and products. We can't be at mass peak of pandemic, but things don't have to be perfect. I mean, do you really think Apple isn't going to release any new iPhones or Macbooks over the next 12 months? Somethings might be forced to be fundamentally changed for several months, for example, reopening Disneyland or packed movie theater releases but I think a physical release of a Magic set might be okay months ahead.
I still think June is probably a little too early, but I could see a late summer physical release for Ikoria and Commander 2020 (Early August perhaps)
How would people play physical card games?
In my country, we're being advised to not gather in groups of any size (they've said 5-10 with caution), remain two metres from other people at all times, and that if you don't live with them you don't visit them. A lot of countries are on complete lockdown, with the vast majority of businesses and services closed to limit exposure and big fines for being found subverting the lockdown without reason. Not to mention that coronavirus can remain on cardboard for up to 24 hours. Until something significant changes the scenario, I don't see any of that going away anytime soon.
In addition to hoping Wizards would help the LGS through this troubling time, I wonder what would the government do to help keep small stores like LGS alive.
Depends on your country. Many are offering payroll assistance (anywhere from 75-90% depending on country) to smaller employers to make it easier for them to keep staff employed and paid even if not working. Some are offering one-time grants to small businesses, others have pressured the banks to either defer loan payments over the next few months or outright waive those payments entirely. I've seen some countries (or individual states/provinces/territories within) issue moratoriums on evictions. Honestly, this is going to be hard on small businesses without significant and longterm assistance from government, and given that some countries haven't even formulated a competent response to the likely loss of life, I do not have confidence that small businesses (like LGSs) will receive the robust assistance they'll need to survive either.
You from Canada too eh?
I just don't see us having enough information right now to discern how late or early we'll get to play with the set via tabletop. I do believe the original poster is being a little over-the-top though. Many countries right now will experience their peak before June, maybe even before May.
I could be wrong and there may be extra precautions taken by governments to keep the rate of infection flat that would also keep stores closed but for now I think we need to take a few deep breaths. Admittedly some state-governments are doing a much better job managing a uniform response to the disease than others.
I am indeed. Something I'm thankful for these days, even if I live in a province with a truly reprehensible premier and party in power.
I just don't see us having enough information right now to discern how late or early we'll get to play with the set via tabletop. I do believe the original poster is being a little over-the-top though. Many countries right now will experience their peak before June, maybe even before May.
I could be wrong and there may be extra precautions taken by governments to keep the rate of infection flat that would also keep stores closed but for now I think we need to take a few deep breaths. Admittedly some state-governments are doing a much better job managing a uniform response to the disease than others.
Most countries are anticipated to have hit their peak by June, that's accurate as far as the reports I've read (and I've spent 2-5 hours every day for almost a month reading up on or otherwise discussing covid-19, which doesn't make me an expert, but at least fairly well-read on the realities of covid). The issue is the risk of a second wave of infections if suppression strategies are loosened before: 1) a vaccine is developed, produced, and deployed globally, 2) herd immunity develops in the population, 3) testing strategies are able to be employed to control for community spread (which worked very well in South Korea), and/or 4) treatments are developed that renders covid-19 very significantly less deadly (as in death rates equivalent to or less than common influenza). The 1918 pandemic had a very deadly second wave of infections (it was actually where the most deaths occurred) and then a third wave a few months later - it took over a year to fully run its course.
So, say every country peaks by the end of May and sees the rates of new infections and covid-related deaths level off and begin to decline through June. The virus still wouldn't be gone and all it would take would be a small number of people (relatively speaking) of people infected with covid-19 to start all of this anew and we'd have a second wave by September. Not to mention that the longer this goes on, the longer it will take people to recover financially. Millions of people worldwide have lost their jobs, most are unsure how they'll manage their rent and bills, there's going to be a period of time even after covid-19 is a non-issue where people won't have the capacity for luxury products like MtG. I also suspect that we'll see people be a bit reluctant to be in group spaces again, the psychological impacts of social isolation, paranoia-fueled cleaning practices, and an oppressive news climate will be felt for a long time after this is over.
So is the OP being over the top? No, not really. The argument put forth relies on a particularly grim timeline of how we as a species deals with this pandemic, but it is not unrealistic. The next few weeks will be very telling about how likely it is, but as of now it's probably the most likely frame we'll be working with. What we're experiencing now may very well be our new normal for over a year (governments have been unsurprisingly coy about how long this will go on - likely to prevent public and economic panic - but experts have been much more willing to offer their takes and the models point to the likelihood that suppression methods will be required for an extended period of time), and that will have serious consequences for companies like WotC. It will fundamentally reshape how these businesses bring their products to consumers. Movies can't be shown in theaters, restaurants can't be open for dine-in service, and trading card games can't be played in person.
To me, it's less of a question of will WotC change their product release strategies, and more a question of how. And businesses are still grappling with timelines, so I doubt even WotC knows right now.
To me, it's less of a question of will WotC change their product release strategies, and more a question of how. And businesses are still grappling with timelines, so I doubt even WotC knows right now.
Wizards might not know the details of the timeline but they almost certainly know that several products will be delayed for release throughout North America and Europe to the point where the entire 2020 release schedule will be thrown off track. I believe at this time they know that Ikoria isn't going to be released in the United States on May 15th.
Suppose we hit the apex of the pandemic in North America in late May/early June. Even if that happened, as you mentioned, that doesn't mean once the number of new cases start to go down we can go back to the original status quo of business. Suppose you only have to wait an additional couple of months, a very generous and optimistic timeline, but even then, we're talking about a release of September for Ikoria and Commander 2020 which subsequently pushes virtually every other new product back by 5 months or so.
Once again, this is an optimistic timeline and it doesn't factor how the economic recession will negatively impact the secondary Magic market including businesses like Gamestop and Barnes and Noble along with the LGSs.
To me, it's less of a question of will WotC change their product release strategies, and more a question of how. And businesses are still grappling with timelines, so I doubt even WotC knows right now.
Wizards might not know the details of the timeline but they almost certainly know that several products will be delayed for release throughout North America and Europe to the point where the entire 2020 release schedule will be thrown off track. I believe at this time they know that Ikoria isn't going to be released in the United States on May 15th.
Suppose we hit the apex of the pandemic in North America in late May/early June. Even if that happened, as you mentioned, that doesn't mean once the number of new cases start to go down we can go back to the original status quo of business. Suppose you only have to wait an additional couple of months, a very generous and optimistic timeline, but even then, we're talking about a release of September for Ikoria and Commander 2020 which subsequently pushes virtually every other new product back by 5 months or so.
Once again, this is an optimistic timeline and it doesn't factor how the economic recession will negatively impact the secondary Magic market including businesses like Gamestop and Barnes and Noble along with the LGSs.
Indeed. All I meant was that WotC, along with most businesses (and, well, everyone), doesn't know when the end of this may be which makes postponing/rescheduling very difficult. You're right, they definitely know that May 15th isn't happening, but they don't know what a realistic reschedule date might be. It's likely they're having meetings to discuss what they'll do if they won't release paper product for 18-24 months and they bumped to May 15 to buy themselves time. I don't honestly believe they believe they're releasing physical product in six weeks.
I definitely don't think this should be in baseless spec; it's an important topic. I think it's entirely possible too. I doubt the game or even the company has faced this kind of problem before.
Would this mean the previews will also get pushed back? I apologize ahead of time if this has been addressed in this post or another, but upon surface scratching of the posts, do not remember reading it and it happens to be late, so I am too tired/lazy to read all replies. Thanks in advance...
Would this mean the previews will also get pushed back? I apologize ahead of time if this has been addressed in this post or another, but upon surface scratching of the posts, do not remember reading it and it happens to be late, so I am too tired/lazy to read all replies. Thanks in advance...
No the previews are still scheduled for Thursday, April 2nd, 2020. The digital release will still happen on time too, only the physical release is delayed.
Sony is the latest movie studio to announce major changes to its release slate due to the COVID-19 pandemic, as reported by Variety. Tentpole movies like Uncharted, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, and Peter Rabbit 2 are all seeing big delays, leaving Kevin Hart’s Fatherhood as one of the only major titles on Sony’s 2020 schedule — and that was itself brought forward to October from January.
[...]
Sony’s drastic schedule changes suggest the company does not see movie theaters reopening until the end of summer or later. Other studios have made more cautious adjustments — Warner Bros, for example, moved Wonder Woman 1984 to August 14th from its planned June 5th release date. Disney’s Mulan has been indefinitely delayed, while new James Bond movie No Time to Die is now set for November.
I think this is illustrative of what we should expect from WotC. If theatres are unlikely to be open by end of summer (and the studios' rescheduling seems to indicate that they don't see them opening until August at the earliest), I doubt LGSs will be either. That is going to factor into WotC's product release schedule.
Huh... I wonder what this is going to be doing to the secondary market.
While bigger sellers will still probably still sell preorders on singles, they won't have the competition of smaller sellers driving down prices for months, by which time the "established" cards of the new format will be well-known.
Might make Ikiora a bit more expensive than usual... at least to some extent.
So, it's been a few weeks and now that spoiler season is over, we should probably reexamine this topic. Particularly in light of the information we've gotten over the past week or two in regards to covid-19 timelines.
Cuomo Says ‘12 to 18 Months Until the Virus Is Totally Controlled’
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said the state’s Covid-19 infection rate had declined but it will still be more than a year until the coronavirus is totally under control.
Canada's Prime Minister said the same thing last week about our own timeline, as well. It's just looking unlikely that we'll be in any sort of shape to get things back to the way they were in a few months, we may be lucky to be in April next year where many hoped we'd be by July 2020.
Another factor is that people (or at least Americans) are likelier to take a "wait and see" approach to any plans to "return to normal" with 10% saying they'll be avoiding that return to normalcy "indefinitely" (source). And America has been the country with the most prevalent "return to normal" narrative from its federal government so it's possible people elsewhere are more inclined to be cautious. Regardless, I think businesses would be concerned by these stats:
When asked how quickly they will return to their normal activities once the government lifts restrictions and businesses and schools start to reopen, the vast majority of Americans say they would wait and see what happens with the spread of the virus (71%) and another 10% would wait indefinitely. Just 20% say they would return to their normal activities immediately.
These views are essentially unchanged from late March.
So with both of those trends in mind, I think it casts a large shadow of doubt over how WotC could roll out physical product when play opportunities for consumers will be limited, at best. There was speculation that covid-19 could push MtG releases back six months, but I'm beginning to wonder how they'll be able to release products while still meeting sales projections when demand will certainly be impacted. I have no doubt that players will be picking up Ikoria and Commander 2020 when they drop in a month, but with casual players less likely to buy if they can't really play, and a significant portion of the fans out of work for the foreseeable future, I think it's reasonable to expect product sales to take a hit of some kind.
My gut is telling me that WotC will be watching the Ikoria/Commander sales closely and will likely base longterm strategies off that data. Thoughts?
My state opening the cages on April 26th and yes my state got hit already (testing if safe enough ofcoarse)
Second this is basicly the concept. Of chicken pox once you get it you can never get it again based on the research on it so far heck you may have already had it and you don’t realize it
So it will get back to normal sooner than some of you think heck it wouldn’t surprise me if it’s only Ikoria and possibly core 2020 getting a delay and that’s it
My state opening the cages on April 26th and yes my state got hit already (testing if safe enough ofcoarse)
Second this is basicly chicken pox once you get it you can never get it again based on the research on it so far heck you may have already had it and you don’t realize it
So it will get back to normal sooner than some of you think heck it wouldn’t surprise me if it’s only Ikoria and possibly core 2020 getting a delay and that’s it
But under control will still take a little bit
I registered to respond to this. I survived coronavirus and it is not just like chicken pox, it almost killed me. I could hardly breath, I couldn't talk and it was some of the worst pain I've experienced. It's also killed a number of people connected to my friends and family. I started having symptoms over a month ago and while I'm mostly recovered, I'm still very fatigued and dealing with chest pain and dizziness. The symptoms of the disease are still being discovered, with numerous reports of cardiac and neurological affects as well as respiratory. On top of that, it is still uncertain if you can be re-infected after recovering. There is actually a number of examples of folks getting re-infected, but they're still studying that. If we open up too soon there will be a much more devastating second wave, which we see historical evidence of in the response to the Spanish Flu last century. The second wave was much more severe than the first. If that happens, we won't have in person Magic tournaments for years, not months. Please don't spread misinformation. I know it's tough to stay informed when new info is coming out all the time, but please check before you say something like "it's just like chicken pox." it's not.
My state opening the cages on April 26th and yes my state got hit already (testing if safe enough ofcoarse)
Second this is basicly chicken pox once you get it you can never get it again based on the research on it so far heck you may have already had it and you don’t realize it
So it will get back to normal sooner than some of you think heck it wouldn’t surprise me if it’s only Ikoria and possibly core 2020 getting a delay and that’s it
But under control will still take a little bit
I registered to respond to this. I survived coronavirus and it is not just like chicken pox, it almost killed me. I could hardly breath, I couldn't talk and it was some of the worst pain I've experienced. It's also killed a number of people connected to my friends and family. I started having symptoms over a month ago and while I'm mostly recovered, I'm still very fatigued and dealing with chest pain and dizziness. The symptoms of the disease are still being discovered, with numerous reports of cardiac and neurological affects as well as respiratory. On top of that, it is still uncertain if you can be re-infected after recovering. There is actually a number of examples of folks getting re-infected, but they're still studying that. If we open up too soon there will be a much more devastating second wave, which we see historical evidence of in the response to the Spanish Flu last century. The second wave was much more severe than the first. If that happens, we won't have in person Magic tournaments for years, not months. Please don't spread misinformation. I know it's tough to stay informed when new info is coming out all the time, but please check before you say something like "it's just like chicken pox." it's not.
But you got to understand That’s not what I meant by the “it’s like chicken pox” I meant you get it only one time and you will never get it again (you gain iumminity from it) I was using chickenpox as example I apologize if I said my first comment the wrong way I meant it as concept (if that’s right)
I’m just glad you survived it and that probably your worst fear
There are three primary reasons related to the Coronavirus pandemic that Wizards cited for the delay:
In the United States the Coronavirus pandemic is still getting worse. The scientists, doctors and experts agree that the apex of the virus hasn't occurred yet. The economy and businesses will be fundamentally disrupted for months throughout the world, especially in the United States. Leaders in major states and cities are already acknowledging that store front businesses will need to be closed for several more additional weeks if not months including the governors of New York, California and Illinois.
Until the pandemic is under control, we shouldn't expect to see a complete return to normalcy for business of new releases for Magic the Gathering sets. The same can be said about a return to normalcy for movie releases, the NBA season beginning, Apple and Nike stores opening or Disneyworld opening up to the public again. These things are very unlikely to happen in less than 2 months.
I believe Wizards already knows this which is one of the primary reasons they even acknowledged the release date could be pushed back further in the announcement:
At this rate, in addition to expecting these sets to be delayed further. I wouldn't be surprised if Core 2021 and other future products including the Secret Lair Fetchland edition, Zendikar Rising and Signature Spellbook: Chandra to be delayed.
Questions to consider for discussion:
UBRKess, Dissident MageUBR - Controlling Dissidents
GRhonas the IndomitableG - Indomitable Four Drops
WUBOloro, Ageless AsceticWUB - Loot & Renanimate
It’s ben pushed to April 30th now
But this theatre is more like a hunch rather than a actual thing
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That was never a realistic goal.
Even June seems far too optimistic. Until we have a vaccine or a comprehensive global testing system in place to detect and quarantine/treat infected people, relaxation of aggressive suppression strategies (like social distancing and closing non-essential services) is asking for additional waves of infection rate spikes. A vaccine is still 12+ months out at best, and despite advances in rapid testing I'm not confident we're returning to any sort of normalcy (as most envision it, at least) in under three months. Honestly, I'm just going to be grateful if we as a globe have this pandemic under any sort of control by the end of the calendar year.
I really don't want to be right, obviously, but if I am, WotC is going to have to seriously reassess its release strategies for products going forward.
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Excellion
Fracture: Israfiel (WBR), Wujal (URG), Valedon (GUB), Amduat (BGW), Paladris (RWU)
Collision (Set Two of the Fracture Block)
Quest for the Forsaken (Set Two of the Excellion Block)
Katingal: Plane of Chains
I agree that we won't be anywhere near life being normal by June, but things don't have to go back to normal entirely for there not to be new releases and products. We can't be at mass peak of pandemic, but things don't have to be perfect. I mean, do you really think Apple isn't going to release any new iPhones or Macbooks over the next 12 months? Somethings might be forced to be fundamentally changed for several months, for example, reopening Disneyland or packed movie theater releases but I think a physical release of a Magic set might be okay months ahead.
I still think June is probably a little too early, but I could see a late summer physical release for Ikoria and Commander 2020 (Early August perhaps)
UBRKess, Dissident MageUBR - Controlling Dissidents
GRhonas the IndomitableG - Indomitable Four Drops
WUBOloro, Ageless AsceticWUB - Loot & Renanimate
Shu Yun, the Silent Tempest WUR Voltron Control
Temmet, Vizier of Naktamun WU Unblockable Mirror Trickery
Ra's al Ghul (Sidar Kondo) and Face-Down Ninjas
Brudiclad, Token Engineer
Vaevictis (VV2) the Dire Lantern
Rona, Disciple of Gix
Tiana the Auror
Hallar
Ulrich the Politician
Zur the Rebel
Scorpion, Locust, Scarab, Egyptian Gods
O-Kagachi, Mathas, Mairsil
"Non-Tribal" Tribal Generals, Eggs
STOP using "dude/bro" as a pejorative or insult. Grow up.
Margaret Thatcher: “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”
Benjamin Franklin: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Martin Luther King Jr.: "I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."
How would people play physical card games?
In my country, we're being advised to not gather in groups of any size (they've said 5-10 with caution), remain two metres from other people at all times, and that if you don't live with them you don't visit them. A lot of countries are on complete lockdown, with the vast majority of businesses and services closed to limit exposure and big fines for being found subverting the lockdown without reason. Not to mention that coronavirus can remain on cardboard for up to 24 hours. Until something significant changes the scenario, I don't see any of that going away anytime soon.
Depends on your country. Many are offering payroll assistance (anywhere from 75-90% depending on country) to smaller employers to make it easier for them to keep staff employed and paid even if not working. Some are offering one-time grants to small businesses, others have pressured the banks to either defer loan payments over the next few months or outright waive those payments entirely. I've seen some countries (or individual states/provinces/territories within) issue moratoriums on evictions. Honestly, this is going to be hard on small businesses without significant and longterm assistance from government, and given that some countries haven't even formulated a competent response to the likely loss of life, I do not have confidence that small businesses (like LGSs) will receive the robust assistance they'll need to survive either.
Archatmos
Excellion
Fracture: Israfiel (WBR), Wujal (URG), Valedon (GUB), Amduat (BGW), Paladris (RWU)
Collision (Set Two of the Fracture Block)
Quest for the Forsaken (Set Two of the Excellion Block)
Katingal: Plane of Chains
You from Canada too eh?
I just don't see us having enough information right now to discern how late or early we'll get to play with the set via tabletop. I do believe the original poster is being a little over-the-top though. Many countries right now will experience their peak before June, maybe even before May.
I could be wrong and there may be extra precautions taken by governments to keep the rate of infection flat that would also keep stores closed but for now I think we need to take a few deep breaths. Admittedly some state-governments are doing a much better job managing a uniform response to the disease than others.
I am indeed. Something I'm thankful for these days, even if I live in a province with a truly reprehensible premier and party in power.
Most countries are anticipated to have hit their peak by June, that's accurate as far as the reports I've read (and I've spent 2-5 hours every day for almost a month reading up on or otherwise discussing covid-19, which doesn't make me an expert, but at least fairly well-read on the realities of covid). The issue is the risk of a second wave of infections if suppression strategies are loosened before: 1) a vaccine is developed, produced, and deployed globally, 2) herd immunity develops in the population, 3) testing strategies are able to be employed to control for community spread (which worked very well in South Korea), and/or 4) treatments are developed that renders covid-19 very significantly less deadly (as in death rates equivalent to or less than common influenza). The 1918 pandemic had a very deadly second wave of infections (it was actually where the most deaths occurred) and then a third wave a few months later - it took over a year to fully run its course.
So, say every country peaks by the end of May and sees the rates of new infections and covid-related deaths level off and begin to decline through June. The virus still wouldn't be gone and all it would take would be a small number of people (relatively speaking) of people infected with covid-19 to start all of this anew and we'd have a second wave by September. Not to mention that the longer this goes on, the longer it will take people to recover financially. Millions of people worldwide have lost their jobs, most are unsure how they'll manage their rent and bills, there's going to be a period of time even after covid-19 is a non-issue where people won't have the capacity for luxury products like MtG. I also suspect that we'll see people be a bit reluctant to be in group spaces again, the psychological impacts of social isolation, paranoia-fueled cleaning practices, and an oppressive news climate will be felt for a long time after this is over.
So is the OP being over the top? No, not really. The argument put forth relies on a particularly grim timeline of how we as a species deals with this pandemic, but it is not unrealistic. The next few weeks will be very telling about how likely it is, but as of now it's probably the most likely frame we'll be working with. What we're experiencing now may very well be our new normal for over a year (governments have been unsurprisingly coy about how long this will go on - likely to prevent public and economic panic - but experts have been much more willing to offer their takes and the models point to the likelihood that suppression methods will be required for an extended period of time), and that will have serious consequences for companies like WotC. It will fundamentally reshape how these businesses bring their products to consumers. Movies can't be shown in theaters, restaurants can't be open for dine-in service, and trading card games can't be played in person.
To me, it's less of a question of will WotC change their product release strategies, and more a question of how. And businesses are still grappling with timelines, so I doubt even WotC knows right now.
Archatmos
Excellion
Fracture: Israfiel (WBR), Wujal (URG), Valedon (GUB), Amduat (BGW), Paladris (RWU)
Collision (Set Two of the Fracture Block)
Quest for the Forsaken (Set Two of the Excellion Block)
Katingal: Plane of Chains
Wizards might not know the details of the timeline but they almost certainly know that several products will be delayed for release throughout North America and Europe to the point where the entire 2020 release schedule will be thrown off track. I believe at this time they know that Ikoria isn't going to be released in the United States on May 15th.
Suppose we hit the apex of the pandemic in North America in late May/early June. Even if that happened, as you mentioned, that doesn't mean once the number of new cases start to go down we can go back to the original status quo of business. Suppose you only have to wait an additional couple of months, a very generous and optimistic timeline, but even then, we're talking about a release of September for Ikoria and Commander 2020 which subsequently pushes virtually every other new product back by 5 months or so.
Once again, this is an optimistic timeline and it doesn't factor how the economic recession will negatively impact the secondary Magic market including businesses like Gamestop and Barnes and Noble along with the LGSs.
UBRKess, Dissident MageUBR - Controlling Dissidents
GRhonas the IndomitableG - Indomitable Four Drops
WUBOloro, Ageless AsceticWUB - Loot & Renanimate
Indeed. All I meant was that WotC, along with most businesses (and, well, everyone), doesn't know when the end of this may be which makes postponing/rescheduling very difficult. You're right, they definitely know that May 15th isn't happening, but they don't know what a realistic reschedule date might be. It's likely they're having meetings to discuss what they'll do if they won't release paper product for 18-24 months and they bumped to May 15 to buy themselves time. I don't honestly believe they believe they're releasing physical product in six weeks.
Archatmos
Excellion
Fracture: Israfiel (WBR), Wujal (URG), Valedon (GUB), Amduat (BGW), Paladris (RWU)
Collision (Set Two of the Fracture Block)
Quest for the Forsaken (Set Two of the Excellion Block)
Katingal: Plane of Chains
No the previews are still scheduled for Thursday, April 2nd, 2020. The digital release will still happen on time too, only the physical release is delayed.
UBRKess, Dissident MageUBR - Controlling Dissidents
GRhonas the IndomitableG - Indomitable Four Drops
WUBOloro, Ageless AsceticWUB - Loot & Renanimate
SOURCE
I think this is illustrative of what we should expect from WotC. If theatres are unlikely to be open by end of summer (and the studios' rescheduling seems to indicate that they don't see them opening until August at the earliest), I doubt LGSs will be either. That is going to factor into WotC's product release schedule.
Archatmos
Excellion
Fracture: Israfiel (WBR), Wujal (URG), Valedon (GUB), Amduat (BGW), Paladris (RWU)
Collision (Set Two of the Fracture Block)
Quest for the Forsaken (Set Two of the Excellion Block)
Katingal: Plane of Chains
While bigger sellers will still probably still sell preorders on singles, they won't have the competition of smaller sellers driving down prices for months, by which time the "established" cards of the new format will be well-known.
Might make Ikiora a bit more expensive than usual... at least to some extent.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/coronavirus-live-updates-51587128069
Canada's Prime Minister said the same thing last week about our own timeline, as well. It's just looking unlikely that we'll be in any sort of shape to get things back to the way they were in a few months, we may be lucky to be in April next year where many hoped we'd be by July 2020.
Another factor is that people (or at least Americans) are likelier to take a "wait and see" approach to any plans to "return to normal" with 10% saying they'll be avoiding that return to normalcy "indefinitely" (source). And America has been the country with the most prevalent "return to normal" narrative from its federal government so it's possible people elsewhere are more inclined to be cautious. Regardless, I think businesses would be concerned by these stats:
So with both of those trends in mind, I think it casts a large shadow of doubt over how WotC could roll out physical product when play opportunities for consumers will be limited, at best. There was speculation that covid-19 could push MtG releases back six months, but I'm beginning to wonder how they'll be able to release products while still meeting sales projections when demand will certainly be impacted. I have no doubt that players will be picking up Ikoria and Commander 2020 when they drop in a month, but with casual players less likely to buy if they can't really play, and a significant portion of the fans out of work for the foreseeable future, I think it's reasonable to expect product sales to take a hit of some kind.
My gut is telling me that WotC will be watching the Ikoria/Commander sales closely and will likely base longterm strategies off that data. Thoughts?
Archatmos
Excellion
Fracture: Israfiel (WBR), Wujal (URG), Valedon (GUB), Amduat (BGW), Paladris (RWU)
Collision (Set Two of the Fracture Block)
Quest for the Forsaken (Set Two of the Excellion Block)
Katingal: Plane of Chains
My state opening the cages on April 26th and yes my state got hit already (testing if safe enough ofcoarse)
Second this is basicly the concept. Of chicken pox once you get it you can never get it again based on the research on it so far heck you may have already had it and you don’t realize it
So it will get back to normal sooner than some of you think heck it wouldn’t surprise me if it’s only Ikoria and possibly core 2020 getting a delay and that’s it
But under control will still take a little bit
I registered to respond to this. I survived coronavirus and it is not just like chicken pox, it almost killed me. I could hardly breath, I couldn't talk and it was some of the worst pain I've experienced. It's also killed a number of people connected to my friends and family. I started having symptoms over a month ago and while I'm mostly recovered, I'm still very fatigued and dealing with chest pain and dizziness. The symptoms of the disease are still being discovered, with numerous reports of cardiac and neurological affects as well as respiratory. On top of that, it is still uncertain if you can be re-infected after recovering. There is actually a number of examples of folks getting re-infected, but they're still studying that. If we open up too soon there will be a much more devastating second wave, which we see historical evidence of in the response to the Spanish Flu last century. The second wave was much more severe than the first. If that happens, we won't have in person Magic tournaments for years, not months. Please don't spread misinformation. I know it's tough to stay informed when new info is coming out all the time, but please check before you say something like "it's just like chicken pox." it's not.
I've listed my sources below:
Cardiac effects: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-destroys-lungs-but-doctors-are-finding-its-damage-in-kidneys-hearts-and-elsewhere/2020/04/14/7ff71ee0-7db1-11ea-a3ee-13e1ae0a3571_story.html
Neurological effects: https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-new-brain/202004/neurological-implications-covid-19-raise-concerns
Re-infection/relapse risk: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-14/do-coronavirus-survivors-have-immunity-from-reinfection-maybe
Spanish Flu second wave: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoration/three-waves.htm
I’m sorry for you
But you got to understand That’s not what I meant by the “it’s like chicken pox” I meant you get it only one time and you will never get it again (you gain iumminity from it) I was using chickenpox as example I apologize if I said my first comment the wrong way I meant it as concept (if that’s right)
I’m just glad you survived it and that probably your worst fear