The problem with defining this format by what is "fun" is that everyone seems to define fun as what they don't lose to. If you keep losing to easily answered cards, that means you should improve your deck. If you don't want to improve your deck, then you should come to peace with the idea that you are going to lose because you chose to not interact with better strategies.
Just to be the first to do this... Yes. Yes I do believe he does know what 100% means. =P
On a side note I am excited for the return of Zendikar as I missed out on it the first time. Did that whole quitting thing between Kamigawa and Zendikar.
I don't know why people are prasing the OP for this, it was just a wild guess that was a hit. He just got one of the most popular settings from the past years and guessed it without absolutely any evidence, people especulated that Tarkir would be return to zendikar. (And missed) If they continuated to say this every year, somewhere they would hit.
As there is people saying that we will return to Dominaria, if someone every year post "next year we will return to Dominaria", eventually they will hit.
Calling it. I've analyzed the MaRo algorithms, and there was lots of talk on Eldrazi and Zendikar a few months ago, right around when they would have been working on designing the Fall 2015 set. One of the most telling things was that last year, MaRo was ambivalent on the Tribal supertype, saying it was never coming back outside of corner cases like the Eldrazi. And then during the supposed Zendikar planning phase that I suspect was happening, they threw it out the window, as the stance on Tribal now is that it's gone forever. During this time a few months back, MaRo polled people about whether Annihilator should come back too.
So yeah, bookmark this and give me $100 come next May.
There's only one way to validate your future sight. Please predict the block after BFZ.
Just to be the first to do this... Yes. Yes I do believe he does know what 100% means. =P
That's right, because everything that turns out to be correct in the end was always known for a fact to start with
Really guys, enough. Well done to norsedt for coming to the correct conclusion, but doing so does not demonstrate any inherent superiority of his methodology. All we can do here in Speculation is evaluate speculations on the evidence we have at hand. That we later gain additional evidence does not retroactively change the value of these evaluations. Those who said Blood was not guaranteed to be Return to Zendikar were absolutely right as of the time when those posts were made. I thought a return to Zendikar was pretty likely, but I never thought it was 100%, because until it was officially confirmed by WotC it wasn't.
There is a reason why the end of the 2nd act of a story is often referred to as the "all hope is lost" moment. You can't tell a really gripping story if things do not look really dire for the hero/s right before going into the final battle. An Eldrazi Phyrexian would be the ultimate villian unless they somehow brought back Yawgmoth. The solution to it is to have the original "super friends" show up all of a sudden, in the form of Ugin, Sorin and Nahiri, and imprison both races within the hedrons.
Along with the rag tag team of the other planeswalkers related to the Zendikar storyline, Sorin, Nissa, Kiora, Chandra, Jace, Sarkhan, and Gideon.
There was no evidence only if you deny the existence of the ones provided over and over in this thread.
You failed to accept the premise that WotC release information in a logical fashion, thats why you didnt saw the value of a well thought prediction line this one.
You cant act like being skcepitcal gives you especial treatment and means you wont e ver havê a burden. If you think this prediction was sporeous you are obligued to demonstrate that.
There was no evidence only if you deny the existence of the ones provided over and over in this thread.
I don't deny that there was evidence, I deny that the evidence was strong enough to declare 100% accuracy. And I especially deny that the fact that the prediction happened to come true proves that the evidence upon which it was based was, in fact, that strong. Just because there are no tigers around doesn't mean it's my rock keeping them away.
You failed to accept the premise that WotC release information in a logical fashion, thats why you didnt saw the value of a well thought prediction line this one.
What does this even mean? It's like you're trying to guess at what the OP's evidence was but aren't entirely sure of it yourself.
You cant act like being skcepitcal gives you especial treatment and means you wont e ver havê a burden. If you think this prediction was sporeous you are obligued to demonstrate that.
I don't think it's "sporeous" (partly because sporeous is not a word), I think there's a difference between "very likely" and "definitely, 100%". I don't expect special treatment (or even especial treatment) beyond people actually acknowledging what my position actually is for once. I would like to be able to point out that we cannot, in fact, flawlessly predict the future here without someone leaping on me saying "OH! So you believe the prediction couldn't possibly come true under any circumstances, do you?". I would like people to acknowledge that just because you cast your chicken bones and it came up with the right answer does not mean casting chicken bones will actually tell you the future! Is that too much to ask? Apparently!
There was no evidence only if you deny the existence of the ones provided over and over in this thread.
This thread provides absolutely no EVIDENCE. The only thing we knew was the precedent set by Scars of Mirrodin: we knew that eventually we would return to popular settings. Poeple were speculating a return to Zendikar since Return to Ravinica.
At first people thought that there was a pattern of "new world, old world", and there was people saying that after theros, the next would be zendikar... and it was not, it was tarkir.
Points any EVIDENCE, not SPECULATION on this thread. There was no EVIDENCE.
It seems that you don't know the difference between EVIDENCE and SPECULATION.
If you think this prediction was sporeous you are obligued to demonstrate that.
This statement is simply absurd, EVIDENCES should be proved, not the other way. If you think someone is obliged to demonstrate something, it's you with the "so called EVIDENCES".
Quote them here, and again, EVIDENCES are different from SPECULATION. Any personal opinion and guess about this can't be considered EVIDENCES.
Yes the bolds on the word evidence is intentional, since some people here don't seems to know what evidence means.
I don't deny that there was evidence, I deny that the evidence was strong enough to declare 100% accuracy. And I especially deny that the fact that the prediction happened to come true proves that the evidence upon which it was based was, in fact, that strong. Just because there are no tigers around doesn't mean it's my rock keeping them away.
The 100% was obvously a exageration, I never even took that seriously. For me likely was the right word for it but most of the argument in this thread delved into if OP's arguments were valid or not.
What does this even mean? It's like you're trying to guess at what the OP's evidence was but aren't entirely sure of it yourself.
I would like to point out that this thread was not about the OP vs. the nay sayers. Many people took the OP side (including me) and point out that his prediction were reinforced by the massive amount of zendikar hype in the mothership that happened a few months ago.
I don't think it's "sporeous" (partly because sporeous is not a word), I think there's a difference between "very likely" and "definitely, 100%". I don't expect special treatment (or even especial treatment) beyond people actually acknowledging what my position actually is for once. I would like to be able to point out that we cannot, in fact, flawlessly predict the future here without someone leaping on me saying "OH! So you believe the prediction couldn't possibly come true under any circumstances, do you?". I would like people to acknowledge that just because you cast your chicken bones and it came up with the right answer does not mean casting chicken bones will actually tell you the future! Is that too much to ask? Apparently!
That reply was not aimed at your position.
About the chicken bones example... It does not hold only because there isn't a logical connection between the position of the bones and a future event. However there's a logical connection between WotC future products and what WotC employess chooses to say in the mothership, in they tweeter accounts and so on.
This thread provides absolutely no EVIDENCE. The only thing we knew was the precedent set by Scars of Mirrodin: we knew that eventually we would return to popular settings. Poeple were speculating a return to Zendikar since Return to Ravinica.
At first people thought that there was a pattern of "new world, old world", and there was people saying that after theros, the next would be zendikar... and it was not, it was tarkir.
Points any EVIDENCE, not SPECULATION on this thread. There was no EVIDENCE.
Your problem is that you're talking against a method noone used. The OP DID NOT created threads in every year point out the next set would be zendikar. You you want to dismiss OP as a fake futurologist, you better tackle his actual arguments instead of using this improper skeptic stance.
Talking about improper skepticism, ironically, it's you who is engage in the fallacy you accuse the OP of. In your stance the set couldn't be predicted at the given information, meaning if the next set was not zendikar you would be right and if it was zendikar it would be a coincidence and you would be right anyway - which is unverifiable stance and thus unsustainable. Aside from the problem you failed to demonstrate it was a coincidence (which for some reason you think you are unburdened of).
Evidence is what we use to feed (good) speculation.
Various items that were 'evidence' a Zendikar thing was coming did have other possible meanings. Finally meeting the Lithomancer was 'evidence' we'd be doing a Zendikar related thing, but it was also evidence Ugin is coming. Ugin was also evidence of Zendikar, but so was Kiora last block, and Gideon the block before that. The evidence still works with Zendikar as the spring block after the changing of the system once we knew about that too.
OP has a good mix of clever, detail watching, and luck going for them. But that does not mean there was evidence.
I don't know why people are prasing the OP for this, it was just a wild guess that was a hit. He just got one of the most popular settings from the past years and guessed it without absolutely any evidence, people especulated that Tarkir would be return to zendikar. (And missed) If they continuated to say this every year, somewhere they would hit.
As there is people saying that we will return to Dominaria, if someone every year post "next year we will return to Dominaria", eventually they will hit.
Wow. Just WOW. The guy got absolutely nothing from this except good feeling and 15 minutes of forum glory.
And yet there are such people who deem it necessary to step in, diminish and ridicule even this little thing.
Congratulations, I really hope that it made you feel better...
Posts like this make me wonder why I am still active on this boards.
I don't deny that there was evidence, I deny that the evidence was strong enough to declare 100% accuracy. And I especially deny that the fact that the prediction happened to come true proves that the evidence upon which it was based was, in fact, that strong. Just because there are no tigers around doesn't mean it's my rock keeping them away.
The 100% was obvously a exageration, I never even took that seriously. For me likely was the right word for it but most of the argument in this thread delved into if OP's arguments were valid or not.
If so, what are you complaining about? It wasn't confirmed until WotC made the official announcement, therefore the arguments over whether the evidence for it was compelling were perfectly valid. Even desirable! What's the point in examining evidence if everyone just unquestioningly leaps to the same conclusion?
What does this even mean? It's like you're trying to guess at what the OP's evidence was but aren't entirely sure of it yourself.
I would like to point out that this thread was not about the OP vs. the nay sayers. Many people took the OP side (including me) and point out that his prediction were reinforced by the massive amount of zendikar hype in the mothership that happened a few months ago.
Including me as well. But I'm not going to pretend that the fact that we were right here means we have a flawless formula for converting mothership content to predictions of the future. We played the percentages and came out ahead. That doesn't mean those percentages were 100%, and it doesn't mean those who disagreed with us were blind fools.
I don't think it's "sporeous" (partly because sporeous is not a word), I think there's a difference between "very likely" and "definitely, 100%". I don't expect special treatment (or even especial treatment) beyond people actually acknowledging what my position actually is for once. I would like to be able to point out that we cannot, in fact, flawlessly predict the future here without someone leaping on me saying "OH! So you believe the prediction couldn't possibly come true under any circumstances, do you?". I would like people to acknowledge that just because you cast your chicken bones and it came up with the right answer does not mean casting chicken bones will actually tell you the future! Is that too much to ask? Apparently!
That reply was not aimed at your position.
May I suggest you quote the post you are addressing in the future, I believed you were addressing me because mine was the most recent post in the thread to express something like what you appeared to be addressing.
About the chicken bones example... It does not hold only because there isn't a logical connection between the position of the bones and a future event. However there's a logical connection between WotC future products and what WotC employess chooses to say in the mothership, in they tweeter accounts and so on.
What I am saying is that it is not sufficient merely for a logical connection to exist. We now know that these things were in fact connected to Battle for Zendikar, but we didn't at the time. There are many things said by WotC that could plausibly be connected to future releases. In the end, we only remember those that actually were. I am trying to strongly caution against this view of history. Too many people are claiming victory here for a method that will invariably steer them wrong in the future; maybe not next time, maybe not the time after that, but the fact that it's not 100% is important because it means there will come a time when all the evidence you've carefully gathered turns out to be coincidence and illusion.
The guy gave plenty of evidence from MaRo's blog. Sure you could interpret it in different ways but he interpreted the clues correctly.
MaRo's blog as a source of evidences? Man this is so laughable.
MaRo's blog answers are based on the questions made, so obviously, if the "trend of the week" is asking about Zendikar, then there will be a lot of info about Zendikar.
MaRo several times replied saying that Return to Zendikar would not take long, but NEVER gave a hint on the date. "Soon" in magic can be 2-3 years.
MaRo's hint is never an EVIDENCE. It is just a... hint.
By the way can you QUOTE the "so called EVIDENCES" the OP posted? Just remember that "evidence is different from speculation"
We all know they'll return to Zendikar eventually. With all these clues, you should able to also guess which mechanics return or not as well, right?
Now with your great foresight and methodology, can you guess each and every block for the next 18 months? Since they release new blocks every six months now, you should have been able to guess then next three blocks by now. This thread started May 2014, so that's enough time to guess the two blocks after Zendikar 2.0. (Granted it's easier to guess return planes than new planes.)
I actually just came back to necrobump this thread with a "LOL TOLD YOU"
Good, good.
I was actually exhibiting my game at PAX East at the time of the panel, now I wish I went. I was going to ask directly whether Zendi was going to be Fall 2015 and see if they shuffled in their chairs. It would've been awesome.
The guy gave plenty of evidence from MaRo's blog. Sure you could interpret it in different ways but he interpreted the clues correctly.
MaRo's blog as a source of evidences? Man this is so laughable.
MaRo's blog answers are based on the questions made, so obviously, if the "trend of the week" is asking about Zendikar, then there will be a lot of info about Zendikar.
MaRo several times replied saying that Return to Zendikar would not take long, but NEVER gave a hint on the date. "Soon" in magic can be 2-3 years.
MaRo's hint is never an EVIDENCE. It is just a... hint.
By the way can you QUOTE the "so called EVIDENCES" the OP posted? Just remember that "evidence is different from speculation"
Yes, the blog of the guy who makes the game is a good source of evidence
He chooses which questions to answer, he doesn't just automatically answer everything. If he is designing Zendikar at the time then he will have answers on Zendikar.
If he suddenly starts answering obscure questions about Mirrodin then we know what to expect in a year or two!
So, by your logic, we should have returned to Dominaria already... because Dominaria is more talked than Zendikar there, and also a Un-set 3, wich is probably the most talked subject there.
Maro's blog have a lot of trending topics (Zendikar being just one among many of them), saying that this alone is evidence should also means we should have returned to Dominaria before Zendikar and also had an Un-set 3 before that.
MaRo's answer are most about what is more asked than anything, if somethign is asked too much, it will be answered more.
He doesn't choose his answers too much, he generally answers the more recent questions, if they can be ansered with a short answer and is a subject that he can talk about.
Yes, he gives some hints, but those hints alone are far from being enough evidences.
Why do you answer some questions and not others?
I pick questions that I a) know the answer to, b) can answer quickly and c) think will be entertaining to my readers.
There is no "i pick aswers about the settings i'm currently designing" on this, if you belive that, then it's just your own beliefs, not any evidence ;D
I don't think you can claim to know how MaRo chooses or answers questions.
Neither you cam claim that.
So your "evidence" are based on something that you can't say for sure. Your claim is based on "how maro pick it's answers" but it is just YOUR SPECULATION. SPECULATION IS NOT AN EVIDENCE.
Evidences are based on facts, and it is NOT a fact that MaRo picks the questions to answer based on what he is working on (at last, not a fact known by you or anyone on this thread), then this is a speculation. Even if it's a correct speculation, it's still speculation, and no one can claim them as evidences.
This thread has run its course, we know that Fall 2015 is Zendikar now. Arguing over WHY this speculation was or wasn't correct to have isn't accomplishing anything, and is veering dangerously close to trolling and flaming. Locking now
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Excellent work.
And now the crucial question....how are we going to gather the $100 he was asking for and give it to him?
Let this great clan rest in peace (2001-2011)
Just to be the first to do this... Yes. Yes I do believe he does know what 100% means. =P
On a side note I am excited for the return of Zendikar as I missed out on it the first time. Did that whole quitting thing between Kamigawa and Zendikar.
As there is people saying that we will return to Dominaria, if someone every year post "next year we will return to Dominaria", eventually they will hit.
There's only one way to validate your future sight. Please predict the block after BFZ.
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That's right, because everything that turns out to be correct in the end was always known for a fact to start with
Really guys, enough. Well done to norsedt for coming to the correct conclusion, but doing so does not demonstrate any inherent superiority of his methodology. All we can do here in Speculation is evaluate speculations on the evidence we have at hand. That we later gain additional evidence does not retroactively change the value of these evaluations. Those who said Blood was not guaranteed to be Return to Zendikar were absolutely right as of the time when those posts were made. I thought a return to Zendikar was pretty likely, but I never thought it was 100%, because until it was officially confirmed by WotC it wasn't.
You failed to accept the premise that WotC release information in a logical fashion, thats why you didnt saw the value of a well thought prediction line this one.
You cant act like being skcepitcal gives you especial treatment and means you wont e ver havê a burden. If you think this prediction was sporeous you are obligued to demonstrate that.
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I don't deny that there was evidence, I deny that the evidence was strong enough to declare 100% accuracy. And I especially deny that the fact that the prediction happened to come true proves that the evidence upon which it was based was, in fact, that strong. Just because there are no tigers around doesn't mean it's my rock keeping them away.
What does this even mean? It's like you're trying to guess at what the OP's evidence was but aren't entirely sure of it yourself.
I don't think it's "sporeous" (partly because sporeous is not a word), I think there's a difference between "very likely" and "definitely, 100%". I don't expect special treatment (or even especial treatment) beyond people actually acknowledging what my position actually is for once. I would like to be able to point out that we cannot, in fact, flawlessly predict the future here without someone leaping on me saying "OH! So you believe the prediction couldn't possibly come true under any circumstances, do you?". I would like people to acknowledge that just because you cast your chicken bones and it came up with the right answer does not mean casting chicken bones will actually tell you the future! Is that too much to ask? Apparently!
At first people thought that there was a pattern of "new world, old world", and there was people saying that after theros, the next would be zendikar... and it was not, it was tarkir.
Points any EVIDENCE, not SPECULATION on this thread. There was no EVIDENCE.
It seems that you don't know the difference between EVIDENCE and SPECULATION.
This statement is simply absurd, EVIDENCES should be proved, not the other way. If you think someone is obliged to demonstrate something, it's you with the "so called EVIDENCES".
Quote them here, and again, EVIDENCES are different from SPECULATION. Any personal opinion and guess about this can't be considered EVIDENCES.
Yes the bolds on the word evidence is intentional, since some people here don't seems to know what evidence means.
The 100% was obvously a exageration, I never even took that seriously. For me likely was the right word for it but most of the argument in this thread delved into if OP's arguments were valid or not.
I would like to point out that this thread was not about the OP vs. the nay sayers. Many people took the OP side (including me) and point out that his prediction were reinforced by the massive amount of zendikar hype in the mothership that happened a few months ago.
That reply was not aimed at your position.
About the chicken bones example... It does not hold only because there isn't a logical connection between the position of the bones and a future event. However there's a logical connection between WotC future products and what WotC employess chooses to say in the mothership, in they tweeter accounts and so on.
Your problem is that you're talking against a method noone used. The OP DID NOT created threads in every year point out the next set would be zendikar. You you want to dismiss OP as a fake futurologist, you better tackle his actual arguments instead of using this improper skeptic stance.
Talking about improper skepticism, ironically, it's you who is engage in the fallacy you accuse the OP of. In your stance the set couldn't be predicted at the given information, meaning if the next set was not zendikar you would be right and if it was zendikar it would be a coincidence and you would be right anyway - which is unverifiable stance and thus unsustainable. Aside from the problem you failed to demonstrate it was a coincidence (which for some reason you think you are unburdened of).
Evidence is what we use to feed (good) speculation.
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OP has a good mix of clever, detail watching, and luck going for them. But that does not mean there was evidence.
Wow. Just WOW. The guy got absolutely nothing from this except good feeling and 15 minutes of forum glory.
And yet there are such people who deem it necessary to step in, diminish and ridicule even this little thing.
Congratulations, I really hope that it made you feel better...
Posts like this make me wonder why I am still active on this boards.
Let this great clan rest in peace (2001-2011)
If so, what are you complaining about? It wasn't confirmed until WotC made the official announcement, therefore the arguments over whether the evidence for it was compelling were perfectly valid. Even desirable! What's the point in examining evidence if everyone just unquestioningly leaps to the same conclusion?
Including me as well. But I'm not going to pretend that the fact that we were right here means we have a flawless formula for converting mothership content to predictions of the future. We played the percentages and came out ahead. That doesn't mean those percentages were 100%, and it doesn't mean those who disagreed with us were blind fools.
May I suggest you quote the post you are addressing in the future, I believed you were addressing me because mine was the most recent post in the thread to express something like what you appeared to be addressing.
What I am saying is that it is not sufficient merely for a logical connection to exist. We now know that these things were in fact connected to Battle for Zendikar, but we didn't at the time. There are many things said by WotC that could plausibly be connected to future releases. In the end, we only remember those that actually were. I am trying to strongly caution against this view of history. Too many people are claiming victory here for a method that will invariably steer them wrong in the future; maybe not next time, maybe not the time after that, but the fact that it's not 100% is important because it means there will come a time when all the evidence you've carefully gathered turns out to be coincidence and illusion.
MaRo's blog answers are based on the questions made, so obviously, if the "trend of the week" is asking about Zendikar, then there will be a lot of info about Zendikar.
MaRo several times replied saying that Return to Zendikar would not take long, but NEVER gave a hint on the date. "Soon" in magic can be 2-3 years.
MaRo's hint is never an EVIDENCE. It is just a... hint.
By the way can you QUOTE the "so called EVIDENCES" the OP posted? Just remember that "evidence is different from speculation"
Now with your great foresight and methodology, can you guess each and every block for the next 18 months? Since they release new blocks every six months now, you should have been able to guess then next three blocks by now. This thread started May 2014, so that's enough time to guess the two blocks after Zendikar 2.0. (Granted it's easier to guess return planes than new planes.)
........................
Good, good.
I was actually exhibiting my game at PAX East at the time of the panel, now I wish I went. I was going to ask directly whether Zendi was going to be Fall 2015 and see if they shuffled in their chairs. It would've been awesome.
Maro's blog have a lot of trending topics (Zendikar being just one among many of them), saying that this alone is evidence should also means we should have returned to Dominaria before Zendikar and also had an Un-set 3 before that.
MaRo's answer are most about what is more asked than anything, if somethign is asked too much, it will be answered more.
He doesn't choose his answers too much, he generally answers the more recent questions, if they can be ansered with a short answer and is a subject that he can talk about.
Yes, he gives some hints, but those hints alone are far from being enough evidences.
There is no "i pick aswers about the settings i'm currently designing" on this, if you belive that, then it's just your own beliefs, not any evidence ;D
Think they'll have both enemy and allied fetches in the same standard even if it's not for long because of the new rotation?
So your "evidence" are based on something that you can't say for sure. Your claim is based on "how maro pick it's answers" but it is just YOUR SPECULATION.
SPECULATION IS NOT AN EVIDENCE.
Evidences are based on facts, and it is NOT a fact that MaRo picks the questions to answer based on what he is working on (at last, not a fact known by you or anyone on this thread), then this is a speculation. Even if it's a correct speculation, it's still speculation, and no one can claim them as evidences.
Not necessarely true, he can know answers to Zendikar questions without working on it, he can know the answers based on the past.
The point is: there was no evidence, just speculation.
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