If we do get an "Over-extended" Format (Masques forward, no rotation, something of a replacement for Legacy and for the now-dead Extended), what cards do you guys think are going to be immediately on the banned/restricted list? My thoughts:
- pretty simple; these cards are banned in Legacy or were banned in the former extended so there's no reason to think they won't be right out of this new Over-extended.
Personal Guesses (some educated, some not ) for cards that will be banned or be "on notice": Tarmogoyf*Hawk dons his flame-retardant suit- part of the idea of this format is accessibility. Why "update" Legacy and leave a $100+ card legal? Now, obviously other cards are expensive (shocks and fetches are pricey, walletslayer and Gideon are closing in on $50 and might go higher if heavily played in this format or "Super Standard", Jace 2.0 is near-Tarmogoyf in pricing and will certainly stay there unless reprinted in the next few yearas). And Tarmogoyf is obviously not "broken"; in the end he's just really undercosted fat. But he's undercosted fat that is a requirement to play almost any aggro strategy in any format he's legal in; if you want to win in the red zone, your deck already costs $400 in goyfs, and it will only get worse if Over-extended proves popular. He missed the hammer for Super Standard because he rotates in a few months, but maybe here...I dunno. It's partially wishful thinking, partly makes sense in the WotC "cater to new players" mindset, but obviously sets a dangerous precedent as a card would be banned not for being "broken" but for being "really, really good...and too expensive on the secondary market".
Fact or Fiction - Not currently banned in Legacy, but in a format that will be a bit slower, decided on card advantage, heavy on graveyard strategies like Dredge and Tog, and lacking in playable free countermagic, I wouldn't be shocked to see this card get banned.
Hypergenesis, Living End, and Sword of the Meek: Cards that are banned in Super Standard (or should be); it's a maybe because WotC's banning of Genesis and Sword were not for power but for "making a fresh environment", which means presumably they don't find the combos too strong, especially not in a format with better countermagic options (Counterspell, Memory Lapse, Daze, etc).
Worldgorger Dragon - occupies an odd space; is banned in current Legacy, but this new "over-extended" lacks a lot of things that make him a strong combo enabler. Not sure here.
Rishadan Port - Overextended's equivalent of Strip-mine and Wasteland; possibly too strong in WotC's eyes.
What do you guys think?
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i dont believe gush will get the hammer as we dont have fastbond, it is good but not that good.
skullclamp-most definetly will get banned
aether vial-i really dont think so, with a bigger card pool it becomes alot less mean sounding, just as good but not destructive as there is other cards to compete it.
DoTV-i dont think so at all, affinity wont be that great in this
SDT- i really really hope not but countertop may become to good.
minds desire- no way. it wasnt banned in the old extended and it was the same format to a extent, its really good but not overly dominating.
additional note:
living end wont get banned lololol
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WGD/Worldgorger dragon won't get the banhammer because there is no animate dead, dance of the dead, or necromancy to infinite loop with to create infinite mana. To be honest I'm surprised he's still banned in legacy with all the GY hate played in that format.
Mind's desire might be banned or it might not. If it proves to be too good if will get banned I think but if it starts out banned who knows when it will get unbanned.
Hypergenesis won't get banned as chalice at 0 hates it out easily as well as trinisphere.
Living end will remain legal forever.
Skullclamp is banned obviously.
Goyf will never be banned as he is only a creature with the power to attack or block.
Disciple of the Vault should be fine.
Aether vial should be fine.
Sensei's top will not get banned I think seeing as how it has functioned in legacy for its whole stay here. This format will be fast, like legacy is so SDT won't take games to time that often.
Gush will probably be unbanned seeing as how there isn't broken stuff masques on that let you play additional lands. I doubt gush will make that big a splash in the new format.
Fact or fiction will remain unbanned. This format will be fast, and turn 4 is a late late turn. Sure it might be the best instant speed draw spell ever printed apart from ancestral recall or gifts ungiven (technically nets you +1 card advantage and is a tutor at the same time) but the 4 mana hurts it a lot and might be too late against some of the really fast aggro decks sure to be in this metagame (zoo, affinity, maybe merfolk. Burn also falls here). Thopter combo with sword of the meek should remain legal.
Rishadan port might get banned but I don't see it getting banned unless it proves to warp the format or is simply 'too good' which I doubt because you can only have it active turn 2 or later and you have to tap 2 lands to shut down their one land, which is only broken if you go turn 1 port play vial off port then turn 2 vial in one drop shut down one of your lands and repeat.
I guess a potentially deadly combo in this new meta might be turn 1 vial into turn 2 standstill since it breaks the symmetry of the card very much in one players favor. And standstill is a 'fair' ancestral recall for 2 mana.
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Really, if this format does happen, I really think it should start out with no banned list. Those cards were banned a long time ago in a vastly different meta and some of them were even banned because of cards not even legal in the format (or like Divining Top, were banned due to time considerations). This is an eternal format we're talking about and it would be good to see what the meta can do by itself.
the only cards that would/should be considered to be autobanned before the format came to fruition are skullclamp and hermit druid. SDT will not be banned (or rather, shouldn't) or else aggro will really get out of control. I can see the extended combo pieces (Sword, Hyper, DD) as being closely looked at due to there being no force, less power in stax effects, and the fact that they are relatively resistant to most of aggro's answers to other combo decks.
Other than clamp/druid, cards that might have powerful impacts:
-Gush or Psychatog
-Dream Halls (this especially)
-Iona
-Depending on how good Goryo's Vengeance can be with entomb, the three eldrazi fatties, or just entomb.
the only cards that would/should be considered to be autobanned before the format came to fruition are skullclamp and hermit druid. SDT will not be banned (or rather, shouldn't) or else aggro will really get out of control. I can see the extended combo pieces (Sword, Hyper, DD) as being closely looked at due to there being no force, less power in stax effects, and the fact that they are relatively resistant to most of aggro's answers to other combo decks.
Other than clamp/druid, cards that might have powerful impacts:
-Gush or Psychatog
-Dream Halls (this especially)
-Iona
-Depending on how good Goryo's Vengeance can be with entomb, the three eldrazi fatties, or just entomb.
the speculation is that of the format starting at masques block, not stronghold.
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Other than clamp/druid, cards that might have powerful impacts:
-Gush or Psychatog
-Dream Halls (this especially)
-Iona
-Depending on how good Goryo's Vengeance can be with entomb, the three eldrazi fatties, or just entomb.
the speculation is that of the format starting at masques block, not stronghold.
speaking of which, what happens here with Coldsnap? would it be out of the format for being part of ice age block? if so, then people who bought cards from it (Dark Depths, Counterbalance, etc) will be very disapointed, since not only are this cards not getting in this format, but were prematurely taken out of extended due to the new rules... that means SDT is less of a threat then
speaking of which, what happens here with Coldsnap? would it be out of the format for being part of ice age block? if so, then people who bought cards from it (Dark Depths, Counterbalance, etc) will be very disapointed, since not only are this cards not getting in this format, but were prematurely taken out of extended due to the new rules... that means SDT is less of a threat then
it is only part of ice age block for block purposes, it is still legal in all formats as if it were its own block such as how it was legal in extended and standard when it was.
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it is only part of ice age block for block purposes, it is still legal in all formats as if it were its own block such as how it was legal in extended and standard when it was.
For rotation purposes in Standard and pre-neutering Extended, Coldsnap was treated as part of Time Spiral block. I don't see why this would be any different.
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For rotation purposes in Standard and pre-neutering Extended, Coldsnap was treated as part of Time Spiral block. I don't see why this would be any different.
ahhhh, either way it will still be legal
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wow, people really hate SDT; ranking it worse than gush and clamp as auto-bans.
And to the person wondering, gush would primarily be an issue with psychatog as it's a free +5/+5 to him and solidarity (although the lack of Reset might make that unnecessary).
for other bannings: just look into history of extended banning. all old bans and unbanning due to rotation...
If Skullclamp is such a 100% ban, why did it never get restricted in classic, even without the really stupid broken cards of Vintage in the format? This format should be very similar to the beginnings of Classic, with the exception of Mercadian Masques block. The only restricted card potentially available in the Over-extended format is Vampiric Tutor, which didn't even get banned in extended and is dependent on whether Sixth Edition is included in the format. Honestly, I don't know why Skullclamp hasn't been unbanned in Legacy.
vintage and legacy are two different playing fields, the things that are legal in vintage make restricting skullclamp very unnecessary, while they would dominate in legacy.
ponder, brainstorm, fact or fiction, lotus petal, lion's eye diamond are all legal in legacy but restricted in vintage. each meta is a seperate beast.
also, since skullclamp is legal in vintage only because its power compared to other cards there is not that great, what makes you think it will somehow not be broken when you limit the cardpool to something that not even legacy has that many answers to?
Over the course of this post, I will craft my vision of the banlist for the new format.
The consensus is clear: Skullclampgets banned. No real discussion is needed on that, and I am sure Wizards would agree. It was used in every deck that ran creatures, and every deck played with it or played artifact hate against it.
1. Skullclamp
So what's next on the hypothetical banlist? Sensei's Divining Top will almost assuredly be banned alongside Clamp. A lot of people do not think that this is the case: either they claim it is not powerful enough to warrant a banning, or that it is less powerful than other spells in the format (like Gush or Dark Ritual for instance). These people overlook the reasons that Wizards gave for banning SDT 2 years ago. These reasons were true then and will be true now:
(Source: http://www.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/ld/2)
Quote from Latest Developments, September 5 2008 »
Such a pervasive performance during a single season created a different problem as well: it made tournaments take too much time.
The constant activating of Divining Top bogs games down, which ultimately leads to an increase in the number of matches that go to time and beyond, which in turn leads to tournaments running much longer than they have historically. Furthermore, the Top encourages players to maximize the number of shuffle effects they play in a deck and the constant shuffling, cutting, presenting to an opponent to repeat the process, and then continuation of a turn exacerbated the situation. In the past the DCI has banned such cards on those grounds alone (Shahrazad is a good example of this, with Land Tax and Thawing Glaciers also having been banned for similar reasons) but in conjunction with the Top’s popularity during the last Extended PTQ season, the decision was to ban the card from the format it was harming.
Wizards wanted their New Format Over Extended to be a PTQ season, at least if EldraziSpy's post is any indication. Because of this, Top needs to go because of the time problems it creates in tournaments. Coupled with its power alongside CounterTop, and its prevalence in most combo and control decks, and you have a perfect candidate for banning.
1. Skullclamp
2. Sensei's Divining Top
These are the two obvious inclusions. After them, however, it gets a bit tricky. The first candidates for banning are obviously those that are on the current Extended banlist and the current Double Standard banlist. Those cards are:
a. Hypergenesis (Double Standard)
b. Sword of the Meek (Double Standard)
c. Aether Vial (Extended)
d. Disciple of the Vault (Extended)
Do these cards deserve banning in Over Extended/Legacy Lite? The answer in all three cases is no.
Hypergenesis: I normally hate the argument that a card does not need to be banned because other cards stop it. Taken to its extreme, Ancestral Recall deserves to be legal in all formats, because it can easily be countered or even Misdirected. That's obviously a stupid conclusion, but it's one that you can risk with this line of argument.
But in Hypergenesis's case, it's totally warranted. SO many cards stop this combo deck. Turn 1 Duress or Thoughtseize ruins your day. Daze, Counterspell, Mana Leak, Rune Snag, Negate, Countersquall, and a host of other widely played counter magics ruin your day. Chalice of the Void and Trinisphere completely wreck your plans on the spot. Heck, even getting a Hypergenesis resolved does not flat out guarantee a win. Your creatures are all vulnerable to targeted removal courtesy of Path to Exile and Terminate, and even big bad Emrakul can bite it to a widely-played Oblivion Ring in the control matchup.
Overall, the deck is not dominant enough to warrant a banning. Thopter Depths was the big name in Extended, not Hypergenesis, and that's arguably where it had the least serious opposition (no Daze, Rishadan Port, etc.) Not enough players run the deck for it to be deemed "format dominating", and it just lacks the consistency of better combo decks like ANT and Depths.
Sword of the Meek: This definitely needed an Extended banning, because Thopter Depths was everywhere. But does it need an Over Extended banning? The problem with this card is simple; it doesn't completely win the game on its own, resolving it does not put your opponent on a 1 or 2 turn clock, and once it's in play, it's quite vulnerable. It also uses one of the most vulnerable areas of play: the graveyard. One thing that Over Extended will NOT be lacking is graveyard hate: Tormod's Crypt, Leyline of the Void, Relic of Progenitus, Ravenous Trap, and Faerie Macabre will all be around to continue checking GY decks. This includes Dredge, Reanimator strategies, and Sword of the Meek.
Disciple of the Vault: Disciple was a monster in the old Extended and Standard days from 2004. But even though it is legal alongside Ravager, Vial, and even the new Master of Etherium, Disciple can't seem to win in modern Legacy. One of the problems with Disciple is his vulnerability. In a metagame full of Path to Exile, Lightning Bolt, Terminate, and a variety of other removal spells, the weak little 1/1 runs into a lot of trouble. Few players who have considered the new format think that DotV is a problem. I have tested a number of potential decks in the format (Merfolk, Goblins, Hypergenesis, Depths, Affinity, Zoo, UW Tempo, Tempo Thresh, etc.), and Affinity is just lacking in many regards. DotV does not need to be banned.
Aether Vial: The big question mark. Ban Vial? Keep Vial? There are arguments on both sides of the fence, and all of these arguments are good ones. Those who want Vial banned see it as format warping. If a deck uses creatures, it also uses Vial. Control decks either counter it on turn 1 or lose. With the loss of FoW, a turn 1 aggro player could drop Vial and be off to the races without fear of countermagic. The biggest argument about the card is that it gives too much "free" mana to be safe. Consider this table. Column 1 shows the number of mana a normal player has on a turn. Column 2 shows the number of counters on a Vial. Column 3 shows the effective mana that a player using Vial has on any given turn.
1 | 0 | 1
2 | 1 | 3
3 | 2 | 5
4 | 3 | 7
5 | 4 | 9
etc.
Once you hit turn 3, a player with a Vial has effectively almost doubled his mana over a non-Vial using player. Add in the instant speed use of Vial and its 1 casting cost, and it looks like a serious problem that needs banning, right?
Let's look at how many Legacy decks use Aether Vial.
1. Goblins
2. Merfolk
3. UW Tempo
4. Cephalid Breakfast (not a strong deck, sadly)
5. Faeries (Not a strong deck)
There are some other tangential entries (some Survival builds), but these are even more tangential than the Cephalid Breakfast and Faeries inclusions on the above list. Overall, the main three decks that use Vial are Goblins, Merfolk, and UW Tempo. Zoo doesn't. Elves doesn't. New Horizons doesn't. A great many "creature-based" decks don't use it, and that is not what the Vial-naysayers would have you think. I agree that more decks would probably end up using it in Over Extended (Soldiers/White Weenie and Affinity come to mind), but is that really so bad?
Let's consider a world without Aether Vial. What happens to creature-based strategies there? Zoo will still be around, as will decks like Team America that use a handful of hyper-aggressively costed creatures to win (Tarmogoyf, Knight of the Reliquary, Tombstalker, Terravore). But what about the swarm-aggro decks? The tribal decks? The classic aggro decks that are creature heavy? Many of these decks, especially the tribal variety, need Vial to stay competitive. If Wizards wanted to have a future with more tribes than just Faeries, they need to cater to the Fish/Goblins/Soldiers/Zombies/Slivers of the world and keep Vial around.
Over Extended is about diversity. They want a diverse set of decks, not a stagnant pool like the Extended that just phased out. Vial keeps it this way by encouraging tribal aggro strategies and giving them an edge over control.
So when all is said and done on these cards, we are left with the banlist:
1. Skullclamp
2. Sensei's Divining Top
There are a lot of other cards that people here, and on other sites, have considered banning. I have even considered a few of these as ban candidates: Entomb Mind's Desire Gush Worldgorger Dragon Tarmogoyf Narcomoeba Bridge from Below Dark Ritual Brainstorm Ad Nauseam Living End Rishadan Port Dark Depths Protean Hulk
In the end, however, a close testing and consideration process will show that none of these cards really merit an initial banning. The format would be so wide open that no one could have the foresight to claim what cards will be extremely dominant. The best thing Wizards can do is to leave the banlist as small as possible and let the players do what they will. Not many cards require bannings, ESPECIALLY modern cards made after Urza's Destiny, when players actually started testing R&D designs.
If SDT were banned solely due to time restrictions then it would be banned in legacy as well. the problem was that it was both centralizing (tons of decks ran it) and it took a long time. when the majority of viable decks in a format are running a card that can take a while to use, there's not much questioning its banning.
as of now though, it doesn't appear to be blatantly centralizing; and it isn't a pure stall-tactic card like Shahrazad was (which ended up turning into WW: Do you think you can beat me in 5 mins? No? Lose half your life.)
If SDT were banned solely due to time restrictions then it would be banned in legacy as well. the problem was that it was both centralizing (tons of decks ran it) and it took a long time. when the majority of viable decks in a format are running a card that can take a while to use, there's not much questioning its banning.
Legacy isn't widely supported by WotC. They ran one sanctioned Legacy event at GP Madrid, but they haven't run many overall. I think DCI let that slide, because there aren't that many WotC-sanctioned events. The Star City Games Open tournament is not WotC-sanctioned, if I recall correctly. If WotC runs sanctioned events based on the Overextended format, there is a much higher chance of SDT being banned.
Legacy isn't widely supported by WotC. They ran one sanctioned Legacy event at GP Madrid, but they haven't run many overall. I think DCI let that slide, because there aren't that many WotC-sanctioned events. The Star City Games Open tournament is not WotC-sanctioned, if I recall correctly. If WotC runs sanctioned events based on the Overextended format, there is a much higher chance of SDT being banned.
WotC would care about this overextended about as much as legacy; SDT only has a higher chance of being banned if the countertop engine proves too powerful in addition to the time constraint.
plus, WotC didn't care much about last extended; they banned 4 blocks instead of the real problems behind the combo meta.
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For-sure Banned:
Gush
Skullclamp
AEther Vial
Disciple of the Vault
Sensei's Divining Top
Mind's Desire
- pretty simple; these cards are banned in Legacy or were banned in the former extended so there's no reason to think they won't be right out of this new Over-extended.
Personal Guesses (some educated, some not ) for cards that will be banned or be "on notice":
Tarmogoyf *Hawk dons his flame-retardant suit- part of the idea of this format is accessibility. Why "update" Legacy and leave a $100+ card legal? Now, obviously other cards are expensive (shocks and fetches are pricey, walletslayer and Gideon are closing in on $50 and might go higher if heavily played in this format or "Super Standard", Jace 2.0 is near-Tarmogoyf in pricing and will certainly stay there unless reprinted in the next few yearas). And Tarmogoyf is obviously not "broken"; in the end he's just really undercosted fat. But he's undercosted fat that is a requirement to play almost any aggro strategy in any format he's legal in; if you want to win in the red zone, your deck already costs $400 in goyfs, and it will only get worse if Over-extended proves popular. He missed the hammer for Super Standard because he rotates in a few months, but maybe here...I dunno. It's partially wishful thinking, partly makes sense in the WotC "cater to new players" mindset, but obviously sets a dangerous precedent as a card would be banned not for being "broken" but for being "really, really good...and too expensive on the secondary market".
Fact or Fiction - Not currently banned in Legacy, but in a format that will be a bit slower, decided on card advantage, heavy on graveyard strategies like Dredge and Tog, and lacking in playable free countermagic, I wouldn't be shocked to see this card get banned.
Hypergenesis, Living End, and Sword of the Meek: Cards that are banned in Super Standard (or should be); it's a maybe because WotC's banning of Genesis and Sword were not for power but for "making a fresh environment", which means presumably they don't find the combos too strong, especially not in a format with better countermagic options (Counterspell, Memory Lapse, Daze, etc).
Worldgorger Dragon - occupies an odd space; is banned in current Legacy, but this new "over-extended" lacks a lot of things that make him a strong combo enabler. Not sure here.
Rishadan Port - Overextended's equivalent of Strip-mine and Wasteland; possibly too strong in WotC's eyes.
What do you guys think?
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SDT
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Ha! That's a good one.
skullclamp-most definetly will get banned
aether vial-i really dont think so, with a bigger card pool it becomes alot less mean sounding, just as good but not destructive as there is other cards to compete it.
DoTV-i dont think so at all, affinity wont be that great in this
SDT- i really really hope not but countertop may become to good.
minds desire- no way. it wasnt banned in the old extended and it was the same format to a extent, its really good but not overly dominating.
additional note:
living end wont get banned lololol
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Mind's desire might be banned or it might not. If it proves to be too good if will get banned I think but if it starts out banned who knows when it will get unbanned.
Hypergenesis won't get banned as chalice at 0 hates it out easily as well as trinisphere.
Living end will remain legal forever.
Skullclamp is banned obviously.
Goyf will never be banned as he is only a creature with the power to attack or block.
Disciple of the Vault should be fine.
Aether vial should be fine.
Sensei's top will not get banned I think seeing as how it has functioned in legacy for its whole stay here. This format will be fast, like legacy is so SDT won't take games to time that often.
Gush will probably be unbanned seeing as how there isn't broken stuff masques on that let you play additional lands. I doubt gush will make that big a splash in the new format.
Fact or fiction will remain unbanned. This format will be fast, and turn 4 is a late late turn. Sure it might be the best instant speed draw spell ever printed apart from ancestral recall or gifts ungiven (technically nets you +1 card advantage and is a tutor at the same time) but the 4 mana hurts it a lot and might be too late against some of the really fast aggro decks sure to be in this metagame (zoo, affinity, maybe merfolk. Burn also falls here). Thopter combo with sword of the meek should remain legal.
Rishadan port might get banned but I don't see it getting banned unless it proves to warp the format or is simply 'too good' which I doubt because you can only have it active turn 2 or later and you have to tap 2 lands to shut down their one land, which is only broken if you go turn 1 port play vial off port then turn 2 vial in one drop shut down one of your lands and repeat.
I guess a potentially deadly combo in this new meta might be turn 1 vial into turn 2 standstill since it breaks the symmetry of the card very much in one players favor. And standstill is a 'fair' ancestral recall for 2 mana.
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Other than clamp/druid, cards that might have powerful impacts:
-Gush or Psychatog
-Dream Halls (this especially)
-Iona
-Depending on how good Goryo's Vengeance can be with entomb, the three eldrazi fatties, or just entomb.
the speculation is that of the format starting at masques block, not stronghold.
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GV does absolutely nothing with cards that shuffle into their library from anywheres.
Actually, you can reanimate Ulmaog with GV.
Aren't the three big Eldrazi titans abilities triggered, so you can respond to them with GV?
EDIT: Well, I was late.
well then in that case, the only card i can see worthy of being banned right off the bat is clamp.
speaking of which, what happens here with Coldsnap? would it be out of the format for being part of ice age block? if so, then people who bought cards from it (Dark Depths, Counterbalance, etc) will be very disapointed, since not only are this cards not getting in this format, but were prematurely taken out of extended due to the new rules... that means SDT is less of a threat then
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it is only part of ice age block for block purposes, it is still legal in all formats as if it were its own block such as how it was legal in extended and standard when it was.
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For rotation purposes in Standard and pre-neutering Extended, Coldsnap was treated as part of Time Spiral block. I don't see why this would be any different.
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ahhhh, either way it will still be legal
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for other bannings: just look into history of extended banning. all old bans and unbanning due to rotation...
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And to the person wondering, gush would primarily be an issue with psychatog as it's a free +5/+5 to him and solidarity (although the lack of Reset might make that unnecessary).
If Skullclamp is such a 100% ban, why did it never get restricted in classic, even without the really stupid broken cards of Vintage in the format? This format should be very similar to the beginnings of Classic, with the exception of Mercadian Masques block. The only restricted card potentially available in the Over-extended format is Vampiric Tutor, which didn't even get banned in extended and is dependent on whether Sixth Edition is included in the format. Honestly, I don't know why Skullclamp hasn't been unbanned in Legacy.
ponder, brainstorm, fact or fiction, lotus petal, lion's eye diamond are all legal in legacy but restricted in vintage. each meta is a seperate beast.
also, since skullclamp is legal in vintage only because its power compared to other cards there is not that great, what makes you think it will somehow not be broken when you limit the cardpool to something that not even legacy has that many answers to?
The consensus is clear: Skullclampgets banned. No real discussion is needed on that, and I am sure Wizards would agree. It was used in every deck that ran creatures, and every deck played with it or played artifact hate against it.
1. Skullclamp
So what's next on the hypothetical banlist? Sensei's Divining Top will almost assuredly be banned alongside Clamp. A lot of people do not think that this is the case: either they claim it is not powerful enough to warrant a banning, or that it is less powerful than other spells in the format (like Gush or Dark Ritual for instance). These people overlook the reasons that Wizards gave for banning SDT 2 years ago. These reasons were true then and will be true now:
(Source: http://www.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/ld/2)
Wizards wanted their New Format Over Extended to be a PTQ season, at least if EldraziSpy's post is any indication. Because of this, Top needs to go because of the time problems it creates in tournaments. Coupled with its power alongside CounterTop, and its prevalence in most combo and control decks, and you have a perfect candidate for banning.
1. Skullclamp
2. Sensei's Divining Top
These are the two obvious inclusions. After them, however, it gets a bit tricky. The first candidates for banning are obviously those that are on the current Extended banlist and the current Double Standard banlist. Those cards are:
a. Hypergenesis (Double Standard)
b. Sword of the Meek (Double Standard)
c. Aether Vial (Extended)
d. Disciple of the Vault (Extended)
Do these cards deserve banning in Over Extended/Legacy Lite? The answer in all three cases is no.
Hypergenesis: I normally hate the argument that a card does not need to be banned because other cards stop it. Taken to its extreme, Ancestral Recall deserves to be legal in all formats, because it can easily be countered or even Misdirected. That's obviously a stupid conclusion, but it's one that you can risk with this line of argument.
But in Hypergenesis's case, it's totally warranted. SO many cards stop this combo deck. Turn 1 Duress or Thoughtseize ruins your day. Daze, Counterspell, Mana Leak, Rune Snag, Negate, Countersquall, and a host of other widely played counter magics ruin your day. Chalice of the Void and Trinisphere completely wreck your plans on the spot. Heck, even getting a Hypergenesis resolved does not flat out guarantee a win. Your creatures are all vulnerable to targeted removal courtesy of Path to Exile and Terminate, and even big bad Emrakul can bite it to a widely-played Oblivion Ring in the control matchup.
Overall, the deck is not dominant enough to warrant a banning. Thopter Depths was the big name in Extended, not Hypergenesis, and that's arguably where it had the least serious opposition (no Daze, Rishadan Port, etc.) Not enough players run the deck for it to be deemed "format dominating", and it just lacks the consistency of better combo decks like ANT and Depths.
Sword of the Meek: This definitely needed an Extended banning, because Thopter Depths was everywhere. But does it need an Over Extended banning? The problem with this card is simple; it doesn't completely win the game on its own, resolving it does not put your opponent on a 1 or 2 turn clock, and once it's in play, it's quite vulnerable. It also uses one of the most vulnerable areas of play: the graveyard. One thing that Over Extended will NOT be lacking is graveyard hate: Tormod's Crypt, Leyline of the Void, Relic of Progenitus, Ravenous Trap, and Faerie Macabre will all be around to continue checking GY decks. This includes Dredge, Reanimator strategies, and Sword of the Meek.
Disciple of the Vault: Disciple was a monster in the old Extended and Standard days from 2004. But even though it is legal alongside Ravager, Vial, and even the new Master of Etherium, Disciple can't seem to win in modern Legacy. One of the problems with Disciple is his vulnerability. In a metagame full of Path to Exile, Lightning Bolt, Terminate, and a variety of other removal spells, the weak little 1/1 runs into a lot of trouble. Few players who have considered the new format think that DotV is a problem. I have tested a number of potential decks in the format (Merfolk, Goblins, Hypergenesis, Depths, Affinity, Zoo, UW Tempo, Tempo Thresh, etc.), and Affinity is just lacking in many regards. DotV does not need to be banned.
Aether Vial: The big question mark. Ban Vial? Keep Vial? There are arguments on both sides of the fence, and all of these arguments are good ones. Those who want Vial banned see it as format warping. If a deck uses creatures, it also uses Vial. Control decks either counter it on turn 1 or lose. With the loss of FoW, a turn 1 aggro player could drop Vial and be off to the races without fear of countermagic. The biggest argument about the card is that it gives too much "free" mana to be safe. Consider this table. Column 1 shows the number of mana a normal player has on a turn. Column 2 shows the number of counters on a Vial. Column 3 shows the effective mana that a player using Vial has on any given turn.
1 | 0 | 1
2 | 1 | 3
3 | 2 | 5
4 | 3 | 7
5 | 4 | 9
etc.
Once you hit turn 3, a player with a Vial has effectively almost doubled his mana over a non-Vial using player. Add in the instant speed use of Vial and its 1 casting cost, and it looks like a serious problem that needs banning, right?
Let's look at how many Legacy decks use Aether Vial.
1. Goblins
2. Merfolk
3. UW Tempo
4. Cephalid Breakfast (not a strong deck, sadly)
5. Faeries (Not a strong deck)
There are some other tangential entries (some Survival builds), but these are even more tangential than the Cephalid Breakfast and Faeries inclusions on the above list. Overall, the main three decks that use Vial are Goblins, Merfolk, and UW Tempo. Zoo doesn't. Elves doesn't. New Horizons doesn't. A great many "creature-based" decks don't use it, and that is not what the Vial-naysayers would have you think. I agree that more decks would probably end up using it in Over Extended (Soldiers/White Weenie and Affinity come to mind), but is that really so bad?
Let's consider a world without Aether Vial. What happens to creature-based strategies there? Zoo will still be around, as will decks like Team America that use a handful of hyper-aggressively costed creatures to win (Tarmogoyf, Knight of the Reliquary, Tombstalker, Terravore). But what about the swarm-aggro decks? The tribal decks? The classic aggro decks that are creature heavy? Many of these decks, especially the tribal variety, need Vial to stay competitive. If Wizards wanted to have a future with more tribes than just Faeries, they need to cater to the Fish/Goblins/Soldiers/Zombies/Slivers of the world and keep Vial around.
Over Extended is about diversity. They want a diverse set of decks, not a stagnant pool like the Extended that just phased out. Vial keeps it this way by encouraging tribal aggro strategies and giving them an edge over control.
So when all is said and done on these cards, we are left with the banlist:
1. Skullclamp
2. Sensei's Divining Top
There are a lot of other cards that people here, and on other sites, have considered banning. I have even considered a few of these as ban candidates:
Entomb
Mind's Desire
Gush
Worldgorger Dragon
Tarmogoyf
Narcomoeba
Bridge from Below
Dark Ritual
Brainstorm
Ad Nauseam
Living End
Rishadan Port
Dark Depths
Protean Hulk
In the end, however, a close testing and consideration process will show that none of these cards really merit an initial banning. The format would be so wide open that no one could have the foresight to claim what cards will be extremely dominant. The best thing Wizards can do is to leave the banlist as small as possible and let the players do what they will. Not many cards require bannings, ESPECIALLY modern cards made after Urza's Destiny, when players actually started testing R&D designs.
-ktkenshinx-
as of now though, it doesn't appear to be blatantly centralizing; and it isn't a pure stall-tactic card like Shahrazad was (which ended up turning into WW: Do you think you can beat me in 5 mins? No? Lose half your life.)
Legacy isn't widely supported by WotC. They ran one sanctioned Legacy event at GP Madrid, but they haven't run many overall. I think DCI let that slide, because there aren't that many WotC-sanctioned events. The Star City Games Open tournament is not WotC-sanctioned, if I recall correctly. If WotC runs sanctioned events based on the Overextended format, there is a much higher chance of SDT being banned.
Skullclamp
Tarmogoyf
Aether Vial
is my guess.
Ok, maybe not Goyf. But I think it would be a good idea still.
WotC would care about this overextended about as much as legacy; SDT only has a higher chance of being banned if the countertop engine proves too powerful in addition to the time constraint.
plus, WotC didn't care much about last extended; they banned 4 blocks instead of the real problems behind the combo meta.