No need to list every isolated occurence of a pack with double rares.
My point was not that double sometimes happens, but that it was happening to about half the packs at the store I was. It seems it was just a local phenomenon.
Also of note was that none of the double were foils. It was two separated boosters having the same rare or the same mythic. The fact that we were getting multiple instances of the same mythic make me think it was a weird snafu: getting twice the same mythic in 6 boosters should be exceedingly rare. Having it happens multiple times (at least 5 double mythics) in the same 30-40 players tournament is an anomaly unexplainable by stats.
Since it didn't happen elsewhere, the case is closed. WotC were conducting a mind experiment on us.
PS: the only explanation I have is maybe the machine that fill the pre-release packs have multiple feeds of boosters and at some point the multiple feeds got close-to-synchronized in the rare print run, making a bunch of grouped packs have double rares and mythics.
My first event (midnight), I didn't pull any double rares. I did sit next to a guy who pulled both a Lili and a Nissa though. My commons and uncommons though were nearly identical in each pack, and all 7 of my rares (6 packs and the promo) were split cards.
While I, locally, did not see much of this occurring, one thing I'd like to bring up is that these packs seem VERY map-able.
While opening my wife & I's prize packs (about a box or so's worth), we noticed a large prevalence of the first three cards being jeskai-cartouches. When I brought this up at one of the later events during deck construction, it took only moments for people to point out that they were indeed holding packs where the red, white and blue cartouches were the first three cards in the pack. Also of note was that green cartouches were near the end of the commons.
I'm sure there are more instances of various cards being repeated across many boosters, but aside from the cartouches, I didn't notice them.
Reminds me of old Mirrodin packs always having the same couple artifact lands together in the same positions in packs.
I also remember hearing that Eldritch Moon boxes Mythics were always in the same covered pack.
There was also tons of faded/bolded misprint packs going around, and it often wasn't the whole pack, but just random cards in them that would be faded or bolded.
Point being, for any judges & TOs may want to be on the lookout for sketchy behaviour.
Doesn't exactly instill a ton of confidence in WotC when there's half-assed production going out.
No need to list every isolated occurence of a pack with double rares.
My point was not that double sometimes happens, but that it was happening to about half the packs at the store I was. It seems it was just a local phenomenon.
Also of note was that none of the double were foils. It was two separated boosters having the same rare or the same mythic. The fact that we were getting multiple instances of the same mythic make me think it was a weird snafu: getting twice the same mythic in 6 boosters should be exceedingly rare. Having it happens multiple times (at least 5 double mythics) in the same 30-40 players tournament is an anomaly unexplainable by stats.
Since it didn't happen elsewhere, the case is closed. WotC were conducting a mind experiment on us.
PS: the only explanation I have is maybe the machine that fill the pre-release packs have multiple feeds of boosters and at some point the multiple feeds got close-to-synchronized in the rare print run, making a bunch of grouped packs have double rares and mythics.
Did you read my post? I had the same experience as you, in back-to-back prereleases.
Anyway, I've updated my stats, incorporating your results. Warning, statistical analysis below:
- Again, the probability of a person opening two of the same (non-promo) mythic in their pool is 1.524%
- The probability of 4+ people doing so at a 30 person prerelease is 0.108% And this is ignoring all our instances of double rares, or your case of someone opening double mythics twice. Let's define this as a "crazy" prerelease.
- But what's important is how often such "crazy" prereleases happen. I don't have any stats on how many prereleases happen worldwide, but if we assume that the only "crazy" prereleases were my two and your one, you'd need over 760 30 person prereleases before our evidence stops being statistically significant (p = 0.05). Again, I'm lowballing things here, because I had two "crazy" prereleases back-to-back, even more unlikely.
But what's impressive is that even with a handful of extra "crazy" prereleases, the number of total prereleases necessary to dismiss them as flukes skyrocket. With 5 total crazies, you'll need over 1800 prereleases to not reject the null hypothesis. With 10, you'll need over 5000 ... representing over 150,000 players. A quick Google search tells me that there are about one million players worldwide with a DCI number. Not all of them played in this prerelease, and not all of them are English speakers who will have read this particular thread on this particular site. Any good statistician will warn you that the plural of anecdote is not data, but in our case, all we need is one or two more anecdotes before we have a strong case for a collation issue. Hopefully, it's just one that affected prerelease pools, and not the entire run.
From a conversation I had with a friend, paraphrased:
I think they purposely nix the numbers on some cards they know will become chase rares and print them less so they sell more.
This conspiracy theory almost as old as the game. Also, how is this relevant to double rares? It seems that people got double chase rares just as often as double jank.
From a conversation I had with a friend, paraphrased:
I think they purposely nix the numbers on some cards they know will become chase rares and print them less so they sell more.
This conspiracy theory almost as old as the game. Also, how is this relevant to double rares? It seems that people got double chase rares just as often as double jank.
If the rate of rares, say, 50 out of 300 cards (ALL HYPOTHETICAL I DO NOT KNOW THE REAL NUMBERS AND IT'S LATE), and some cards are printed less, other cards will be put in place of the missing rares. Since they still need that same ratio of 50 to 300, other rares will fill that place. Sooo....? Same amount, but less chase, thus more jank.
What? Saying "hypothetical" isn't an excuse to make crap up.
You are sad facing on that, but I would have been ecstatic as those are going to do nothing but go up in the long run thanks to being an indestructible mana source. Auto include in commander decks, playable in colorless matters decks, etc.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
I went 5-0 in the event going in with a defensive mindset with enough cards to make a vilable mono-white using life gaining effects and enblam creatures. Also using Approach of the Second Sun to win several matches was fun. Several games all I had to do was hold out 8 turns and with my blockers and Kittens it was easy to turtle and praise the sun and in the final game I had both in hand from the start.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
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My point was not that double sometimes happens, but that it was happening to about half the packs at the store I was. It seems it was just a local phenomenon.
Also of note was that none of the double were foils. It was two separated boosters having the same rare or the same mythic. The fact that we were getting multiple instances of the same mythic make me think it was a weird snafu: getting twice the same mythic in 6 boosters should be exceedingly rare. Having it happens multiple times (at least 5 double mythics) in the same 30-40 players tournament is an anomaly unexplainable by stats.
Since it didn't happen elsewhere, the case is closed. WotC were conducting a mind experiment on us.
PS: the only explanation I have is maybe the machine that fill the pre-release packs have multiple feeds of boosters and at some point the multiple feeds got close-to-synchronized in the rare print run, making a bunch of grouped packs have double rares and mythics.
My second event in the morning I opened 3 Harvest Season and 2 Channler Initiate...
I noticed that it's mostly blue rares.
While opening my wife & I's prize packs (about a box or so's worth), we noticed a large prevalence of the first three cards being jeskai-cartouches. When I brought this up at one of the later events during deck construction, it took only moments for people to point out that they were indeed holding packs where the red, white and blue cartouches were the first three cards in the pack. Also of note was that green cartouches were near the end of the commons.
I'm sure there are more instances of various cards being repeated across many boosters, but aside from the cartouches, I didn't notice them.
Reminds me of old Mirrodin packs always having the same couple artifact lands together in the same positions in packs.
I also remember hearing that Eldritch Moon boxes Mythics were always in the same covered pack.
There was also tons of faded/bolded misprint packs going around, and it often wasn't the whole pack, but just random cards in them that would be faded or bolded.
Point being, for any judges & TOs may want to be on the lookout for sketchy behaviour.
Doesn't exactly instill a ton of confidence in WotC when there's half-assed production going out.
Anyway, I've updated my stats, incorporating your results. Warning, statistical analysis below:
- Again, the probability of a person opening two of the same (non-promo) mythic in their pool is 1.524%
- The probability of 4+ people doing so at a 30 person prerelease is 0.108% And this is ignoring all our instances of double rares, or your case of someone opening double mythics twice. Let's define this as a "crazy" prerelease.
- But what's important is how often such "crazy" prereleases happen. I don't have any stats on how many prereleases happen worldwide, but if we assume that the only "crazy" prereleases were my two and your one, you'd need over 760 30 person prereleases before our evidence stops being statistically significant (p = 0.05). Again, I'm lowballing things here, because I had two "crazy" prereleases back-to-back, even more unlikely.
But what's impressive is that even with a handful of extra "crazy" prereleases, the number of total prereleases necessary to dismiss them as flukes skyrocket. With 5 total crazies, you'll need over 1800 prereleases to not reject the null hypothesis. With 10, you'll need over 5000 ... representing over 150,000 players. A quick Google search tells me that there are about one million players worldwide with a DCI number. Not all of them played in this prerelease, and not all of them are English speakers who will have read this particular thread on this particular site. Any good statistician will warn you that the plural of anecdote is not data, but in our case, all we need is one or two more anecdotes before we have a strong case for a collation issue. Hopefully, it's just one that affected prerelease pools, and not the entire run.
This conspiracy theory almost as old as the game. Also, how is this relevant to double rares? It seems that people got double chase rares just as often as double jank.
What? Saying "hypothetical" isn't an excuse to make crap up.
You are sad facing on that, but I would have been ecstatic as those are going to do nothing but go up in the long run thanks to being an indestructible mana source. Auto include in commander decks, playable in colorless matters decks, etc.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
I went 5-0 in the event going in with a defensive mindset with enough cards to make a vilable mono-white using life gaining effects and enblam creatures. Also using Approach of the Second Sun to win several matches was fun. Several games all I had to do was hold out 8 turns and with my blockers and Kittens it was easy to turtle and praise the sun and in the final game I had both in hand from the start.