haha I am detecting a lot of salt and hostility in this thread. better throw my two cents in!
I am fine with the rarity shift because this set is designed for limited. they don't want you to easily draft the elfball deck, that makes sense to me. they made a limited run of these cards to appease collectors. I am okay with this. wizards has to walk a fine line between appeasing a small number of collectors and an overwhelming majority of people interested in actually playing the game. only a small number of the latter group are even super interested in this set. most people don't play older formats and don't want/need some of these expensive reprints.
unpopular opinion: I didn't play the game in the early 90's because I was 3 when the game came out. not only do I not care about most long-time/big time hoarders/collectors in this game, but I think they are generally toxic to the community. the world does not revolve around you or the thousands of dollars you have invested in this game. it is a game with cards that are meant to be played, not to be collected and treated like stocks or a trust fund you can retire on later. I love this game because it is the greatest game I have ever played, I never learned it so I could make money off of it (though it would be cool to go pro). if you value your collection more than the actual gameplay and time you spend using your cards/interacting with other players, I think your priorities may be a bit off.
there are two things wizards can do: cater to the growing playerbase, the majority of which are casual players who never even want to go to a tournament, or cater to the collectors who treat the game as an investment. one of the choices affects very few people, the other choice continues to grow the game by making it more accessible to those who haven't played since the game's inception and don't have these scarce, expensive cards to play older formats. wizards does not want to relive what happened when chronicles was released, and although EMA might not be perfect, it is as close as we will get so long as wizards chooses to continue the balancing act of trying to grow the game while still appeasing hardcore collectors/investors.
....odds of any specific mythic are about 2 per case based upon my own evidence of 4 cases per set over the last few years. This gives us roughly about 400,000 new copies about to drop....
Your numbers are off here. These are not 36 pack / 6 box cases. instead 24 pack / 4 box cases. So, 96 packs vs the standard 216 packs. You will NOT be getting 2 of each mythic in these cases. Without knowing actual print run I can not say the actual numbers of each new mythic hitting the market but even still your example is assuming ALL boxes/cases are opened in the near future. Actually, there might be 400,000 of each new mythic printed (highly unlikely ) but no more than half of the entire print run will be opened in the near future. SO, while prices are affected in the near term they tend to bounce back because of the lack of actual supply. Also of note, IF the game continues to grow worldwide the demand far exceeds the entire print run regardless. Just for giggles, lets say there are 250,000 cases or 1 million boxes printed (btw msrp of entire run 240 MILLION dollars) with each box having 3 mythics included. We would get 3 million total mythics / 15 different mythics / 200,000 of each mythic .
Here's your mistake: Chronicles was introduced right around the same time as Type 2 was introduced. The game was much smaller, as was the playerbase. The vast majority of people looked at all cards as investments and were substantially negatively-impacted by the devaluation, compared to the relatively few that benefited. Chronicles plus Type 2 undermined faith in the game's stability as a whole.
Nowadays, Type 2 is a tradition that goes back 20 years, people are used to the idea that almost any card not on the reserve list is a potential reprint target in Commander, and the people who would be most negatively affected by an unlimited run of EMA are the VAST MINORITY relative to the majority that could now access those formats. Plus, this run doesn't affect the Reserved List, which is the only "guarantee" Wizards offers (whether that's good or bad is not the subject of this discussion).
In other words, while there is value in looking at the past, the Chronicles comparison is no longer valid because the proportional distribution of affected players is different. The number of people that will up and leave magic over an unlimited run of EMA is a pittance compared to those who might join, which is the reverse of the situation 21 years ago.
I've bolded two parts. The first is simply wrong. The VAST majority of players back in the early 90s were players - mostly teenagers. At that time very few thought "Wow... in 20 years this Magic thing is going to be awesome and I'm going to buy everything and preserve it perfectly!" Most thought it was a passing fancy along with several other TCGs that popped up at the time - Star Wars CCG, Star Trek TCG, Jyhad, etc. Nobody would have predicted the game to continue on with the growth that it has had. I'm guessing you simply were not around back then and do not have first hand experience. Nothing wrong with that, but this supposition on your part is not correct.
The second part - The comparison is absolutely valid. Yes the distribution of players is different, but I argue that there are more collectors now than there ever were in the game. Now there is history and lore behind the cards. As for the the number of people that would up and leave over an unlimited print run is a pittance? That is pure supposition. I say it will destroy the game. The difference between our two positions? History. It nearly happened once before. Feel free to disagree with me as is your right, but history is on my side and Wizards is not willing to put that big of a risk on the table. I applaud that decision since I want this game to be around another 20 years.
haha most people don't play older formats and don't want/need some of these expensive reprints.
Now is this because most people aren't interested in playing eternal formats, or because it costs literally thousands to tens of thousands of dollars to get in to an eternal format and most people aren't insane enough to drop 10-50% of the median annual household income on a hobby game?
The notion that this is an issue of "player vs. collector" is a false dichotomy. Many people--myself included--are both. Part of the reason that I want my old cards to retain value or even appreciate is so that I can spin them off for new cards later without having to shell out a bunch of money-i.e. my (expensive) hobby (somewhat) pays for itself. If Wizards just drove prices into the ground, the game would still be expensive by sheer virtue of needing to open a bunch of packs, except at the end of the day you'd have NOTHING to show gofor it.
I started playing around Tempest--i took a long gap off in the early to mid-2000s. On the one hand I'm glad reprint sets like this pop up from time to time, because the old printings if of the reprinted cards generally lose about half of their value for some time (the new printings are often even cheaper) and become more accessible. This is how I was able to pick up s a lot of the original shocks, Mirrodin block staples, etc. On the other hand, I'm glad they're a limited print run product, because that means at some point my cards are going to retain and then regain their value--at least until the next printing is necessitated by outrageous prices for staple cards.
I think these products strike a great balance in that respect. I don't think I'll buy a box necessarily, but I'd like to draft it a few times and I'd definitely pick up some of the staples missing from my collection.
The price has to do with how limited it is combined with what it is inside.
I don't get how some "ink on a cardboard" is more expensive than other "ink on a card board".
Ok then, let's meet up and you can trade me a $100 bill for my $20 bill. After all, it's just "ink on paper", right?
Hey if you are gonna post -snip- ***** then why even post?
Nothing prevents wizards from printing more FoVs at common. The costs to manufacture one ema booster are pretty much identical to soi booster but for some reason ema booster costs 5 times more.
Now is this because most people aren't interested in playing eternal formats, or because it costs literally thousands to tens of thousands of dollars to get in to an eternal format and most people aren't insane enough to drop 10-50% of the median annual household income on a hobby game?
it's probably the latter reason you listed that causes the former feeling of disinterest.
The notion that this is an issue of "player vs. collector" is a false dichotomy. Many people--myself included--are both. Part of the reason that I want my old cards to retain value or even appreciate is so that I can spin them off for new cards later without having to shell out a bunch of money-i.e. my (expensive) hobby (somewhat) pays for itself. If Wizards just drove prices into the ground, the game would still be expensive by sheer virtue of needing to open a bunch of packs, except at the end of the day you'd have NOTHING to show gofor it.
I don't know if you were referring to my post, but I should have been more clear. there are those of us who play lots of magic, and by virtue of that we are 'collectors' because we have a substantial collection. the toxic individuals I am talking about are the kind of people who find out ancestral vision is unbanned and decide to do a massive online buyout. those kinds of people I have nothing but contempt for. perhaps I am wrong but I think the most you need of any card besides shadowborn apostle and relentless rats is 4 copies. any more than that and you are either lazy because you don't move your copies between decks when you play ones that need them (which I totally understand by the way) OR you are looking to make an investment and not do what nature intended which is to play with the cards you own.
Also the whole msrp and estimated value argument you keep trying to relate to is stupid. Heres the thing its cardboard with ink on it, it serves no function except to play a game. theres no investment made since youre blindly buying packs unless you skip right to the secondary market where wizards doesnt see that money sans the original pack sale the card came from.
Let me ask you a question--do you sleeve your cards? If you said "yes", then that is an acknowledgment on your part that your cards have value worth preserving, and that their intrinsic value is greater than just that of game pieces--that they in fact have a MONETARY value, and that that value is worth preserving.
Not true. I sleeve most games I own. Including board games and other card games. I prefer shuffling sleeved cards and I enjoy the longevity it provides.
MSRP though wouldn't rise so much if the print run was higher and at levels not resembling MM1. If these were available at places like Wal-Mart and Target, and at a level of printing that isn't so little the print run couldn't get on a roller coaster, the MSRP wouldn't be an issue. The price has to do with how limited it is combined with what it is inside.
Yes, but if Wizards made this a high print run product they would completely destroy the secondary market. This would have two particularly bad and interrelated effects: first, it would destroy the value of collections--that goes for typical players who have spent thousands of dollars building their collections just as much as it does StarCityGames, and second--as a consequence--it would destroy one of the underpinning tenets of faith that drives this game--your game pieces are investments that are going to retain (and probably gain) value over time. If you're Wizards and you completely destroy or even substantially damage the secondary market, you send the message that you don't care if players' investments are entirely worthless; this disincentivizes players to spend money on the game, and the upshot is that Wizards makes less money. When Wizards makes less money, they can't spend that money developing the game, and the game suffers.
The fact of the matter is that this set has an MSRP that is commensurate with the EV of this set. If you want to possibly open a Karakas (a card that hasn't been printed in a non-promo format in 22 years) or a Mana Crypt (20-21 year), you should expect to have to pay for it.
Such Doom and Gloom! "My collection will be worthless!!!" Only, recent reprints have proven that to be false. Collections take a hit, sure, but the original printings ALWAYS maintain some value, and it seems that they always stay higher in price than the reprints. Almost like they have some value as a collectible. Your game pieces are cardboard. If you bought into them thinking of them as investments, you made a mistake. If you bought into them AFTER the Official Reprint Policy spelled out, in no uncertain terms, that anything not on the Reserve List was fair game for a reprint, and still expect Wizards to act to preserve the value of your cardboard, then you made a mistake and are trying to make other people pay for it instead of admitting it.
You can check my signature for what I think about "investing" in game pieces. And WHY is it so important that "you should expect to have to pay for it?" I don't understand the train of thought that says that it's up to WotC to limit copies of cards for their game so that people who aren't even buying those cards from WotC can maintain value. Wizards should be concerned with selling packs, not making money for SCG, CFB, Lakanna, or Mogg Flunky. Their focus should be on growing the game, not on stifling it so that you and I can claim that we have x thousands of dollars worth of cards. (I don't know about you, but I don't plan on ever selling my collection- so what it's "worth" to me is entirely play value, and that DROPS when I have nobody to play against. Like when people who haven't been playing for 20 years can't afford the buy-in.)
The second part - The comparison is absolutely valid. Yes the distribution of players is different, but I argue that there are more collectors now than there ever were in the game. Now there is history and lore behind the cards. As for the the number of people that would up and leave over an unlimited print run is a pittance? That is pure supposition. I say it will destroy the game. The difference between our two positions? History. It nearly happened once before. Feel free to disagree with me as is your right, but history is on my side and Wizards is not willing to put that big of a risk on the table. I applaud that decision since I want this game to be around another 20 years.
All of the people who left the game because Thoughtseize lost a ton of value, because Shocks fell to a quarter of their value when they were reprinted, because Fetchlands dropped when they were reprinted? That's right: not enough to change the overwhelming approval of those reprints. Compared to how many players, both new and old, were ECSTATIC to be able to get those cards, the people who "left the game" because their high-dollar cards took a nosedive weren't relevant. Why do you believe that any other set of reprints would have a different effect? Chronicles was 20 years ago, was MASSIVELY overprinted (imagine they printed Conspiracy, but with 3x the print run. That's how much they overshot it,) and taught them valuable lessons, which is why they do market research now. Chronicles could only happen now if several people were explicitly doing the exact opposite of their job in predicting what the demand will be, and it's time to stop saying "But Chronicles" when Chronicles isn't even a possibility anymore.
Cards are game pieces, and should be treated as such, easily replaceable.
Cards are not money, investments, or a retirement fund, and should never have been treated as such.
Wizards made a mistake caving to speculators once, and we still pay for that mistake 2 decades later.
"Entitled:" the entire ad hominem fallacy condensed into a single word. It doesn't strengthen your argument to attack motivations, it just makes you look like you don't understand the argument.
It's always interesting how often two opposing groups can be so fervent in their viewpoints that they literally cannot comprehend how anyone could stand on the other side and disagree with them. It's one thing to understand the other sides viewpoint and then respectfully disagree but here in these price discussions I often get the impression both sides are in total confusion as to how anyone could argue the other sides view.
On one side you have the people who wanted the set to be filled with expensive staples and have a huge print run. They have no qualms with the secondary market being affected, as they just want the prices of cards to drop and the overall supply to increase. They see no problem with the value of cards being slashed. They see increasing the supply of high priced staples as good for the game because it will make formats more accessible for people who are either unwilling or unable to drop $1000 on a deck. These people see spending $100 on a card as a single transaction with no guarantee of retained value. As such they are much less willing to drop $100 on a card.
On the other side, you have the people who see the set as being perfectly fine the way it is due to the EV of the packs being close to the selling price of the booster. They also appreciate the stability of the secondary market. They are much more willing to spend $100 on a card because they trust that they will very likely be able to resell the card at a later date for somewhere close to that price. They are okay with spending $1000 on a deck because they see the price of playing the deck as just the difference in the purchase and sale price when they are finished with it. These people have grown to trust in that reasonable stability in the secondary market and that it in and of itself is a large part of what generates willingness in people to purchase such expensive cards.
I'm sure this will just generate flames from both sides telling me how wrong I am about either group, but that is just my thoughts looking in.
go back and read all of my posts in this thread. I have already stated that Wizards would simply never open the floodgates and reprint to the ground. My post was directly against Lord_Darkview saying that Wizards should have taken the entire EMA print run and make it an unlimited run for 2 years.
I agree that individual reprints as you mentioned above was fine. I don't believe that people have too much of a concern when there are a handful of cards reprinted in future sets. The concern comes if Wizards decides to make an entire reprint set that has an unlimited run. That would shake consumer confidence in the secondary market as it would be the 2016 version of Chronicles.
Again though, it will never happen. Wizards already knows not to do unlimited print runs of reprint sets.
/edit again - I don't understand why we continue to talk in the extremes. People are ok with fluctuations or devaluations as Wizards does small print run reprint sets like EMA and with individual cards being brought back into standard.
Additionally - people do buy cards to play with. While not specifically an investment, people do expect that their cards will retain a modicum of value. Price fluctuations up or down is just part of the way the secondary market works and Wizards policy of reprinting. What many in the game are not OK with is the complete and total reprint-to-the-ground mentality that some on this board seem to advocate.
There are shades of gray in the middle - where Chronicles style reprints is on one side and never reprinting a card like the Reserve list is on the other. Thankfully Wizards is able to work effectively between the two extremes. I think they've found a good balance of reprinting hard to find cards in EMA, bringing old cards like the fetches into standard, and keeping collectors happy.
It's always interesting how often two opposing groups can be so fervent in their viewpoints that they literally cannot comprehend how anyone could stand on the other side and disagree with them. It's one thing to understand the other sides viewpoint and then respectfully disagree but here in these price discussions I often get the impression both sides are in total confusion as to how anyone could argue the other sides view.
On one side you have the people who wanted the set to be filled with expensive staples and have a huge print run. They have no qualms with the secondary market being affected, as they just want the prices of cards to drop and the overall supply to increase. They see no problem with the value of cards being slashed. They see increasing the supply of high priced staples as good for the game because it will make formats more accessible for people who are either unwilling or unable to drop $1000 on a deck. These people see spending $100 on a card as a single transaction with no guarantee of retained value. As such they are much less willing to drop $100 on a card.
On the other side, you have the people who see the set as being perfectly fine the way it is due to the EV of the packs being close to the selling price of the booster. They also appreciate the stability of the secondary market. They are much more willing to spend $100 on a card because they trust that they will very likely be able to resell the card at a later date for somewhere close to that price. They are okay with spending $1000 on a deck because they see the price of playing the deck as just the difference in the purchase and sale price when they are finished with it. These people have grown to trust in that reasonable stability in the secondary market and that it in and of itself is a large part of what generates willingness in people to purchase such expensive cards.
I'm sure this will just generate flames from both sides telling me how wrong I am about either group, but that is just my thoughts looking in.
Funny... I was actually typing up a reply and didn't see this come in. You're absolutely right. Wizards is also doing a good job of balancing both sides as well. We do get some reprints, but they don't flood the market. Card prices are relatively stable and allows hundreds (Thousands?) of others to make a living in the secondary market. Sounds good to me!
/edit I suppose what I am advocating for is the status quo. What Wizards has been doing, while not perfect, does seem to strike a good balance between all of the interested parties in Magic. At this point I just don't want them to upset the apple cart.
Funny... I was actually typing up a reply and didn't see this come in. You're absolutely right. Wizards is also doing a good job of balancing both sides as well. We do get some reprints, but they don't flood the market. Card prices are relatively stable and allows hundreds (Thousands?) of others to make a living in the secondary market. Sounds good to me!
/edit I suppose what I am advocating for is the status quo. What Wizards has been doing, while not perfect, does seem to strike a good balance between all of the interested parties in Magic. At this point I just don't want them to upset the apple cart.
Card prices are relatively stable? I completely disagree. Many important Modern and Legacy cards have seen their price double or triple within the last year or two. Goblin Guide, Aether Vial, Chalice of the Void, and Chord of Calling are just a few examples of this. All of these but Goblin Guide have seen recent reprints as well. Other cards, like Zendikar fetches, are all over the place - spiking up and dropping down.
I wouldn't call card prices stable at all. Wizards allowed prices to get completely out of hand and are now more concerned with keeping SCG and CFB happy while still generating revenue than making formats accessible. MMA, EMA, all this crap exists solely as a product for Magic players to consume. They are continually holding important cards back to save chase rares for an upcoming Masters set (since Masters is more important to Hasbro as a product to consume) and so any price decreases in reprint staples A B and C will result in price increases in old staples X Y and Z. It's simple supply and demand. If anything, Masters products only make things worse as every time one is released it generates more interest in the format.
Masters sets are good basically only for Commander players and cube builders.
Funny... I was actually typing up a reply and didn't see this come in. You're absolutely right. Wizards is also doing a good job of balancing both sides as well. We do get some reprints, but they don't flood the market. Card prices are relatively stable and allows hundreds (Thousands?) of others to make a living in the secondary market. Sounds good to me!
/edit I suppose what I am advocating for is the status quo. What Wizards has been doing, while not perfect, does seem to strike a good balance between all of the interested parties in Magic. At this point I just don't want them to upset the apple cart.
Card prices are relatively stable? I completely disagree. Many important Modern and Legacy cards have seen their price double or triple within the last year or two. Goblin Guide, Aether Vial, Chalice of the Void, and Chord of Calling are just a few examples of this. All of these but Goblin Guide have seen recent reprints as well. Other cards, like Zendikar fetches, are all over the place - spiking up and dropping down.
I wouldn't call card prices stable at all. Wizards allowed prices to get completely out of hand and are now more concerned with keeping SCG and CFB happy while still generating revenue than making formats accessible. MMA, EMA, all this crap exists solely as a product for Magic players to consume. They are continually holding important cards back to save chase rares for an upcoming Masters set (since Masters is more important to Hasbro as a product to consume) and so any price decreases in reprint staples A B and C will result in price increases in old staples X Y and Z. It's simple supply and demand. If anything, Masters products only make things worse as every time one is released it generates more interest in the format.
Masters sets are good basically only for Commander players and cube builders.
I suppose I should have qualified my statement about card prices being stable. They move around a lot, but we aren't seeing a whole-scale crash or 300% increase of the market writ large. Yes the secondary card market fluctuates up and down for individual cards. Many of the cards you just listed could have been had for a fraction of what they are currently worth if you bought them right after they reprinted. Hell, just about every Modern Masters 2015 card can be had for cheaper now than prior to when the set was printed. Chord of Calling? It just got reprinted in M15 and can still be had for less than 1/2 of it's highest price prior to reprint. I guess my question has to do with what are your expectations? Do you expect cards to not only lose value, but never appreciate? If that's the case, then you are completely ignoring several important aspects of this being a collectible card game.
As for making formats accessible, This has been discussed ad nauseum in other threads. It simply is not in Wizards' best interests if people are playing Legacy and Modern. Their money maker is standard and limited. The Masters series has been a great addition to Wizards' lineup to deflate card prices some without completely crashing their prices. Also, I cannot believe that anyone complains that the MMA series generating more interest in the format is a bad thing.
Whatever you or I think, Wizards has been doing a great job with the game. It's been regularly expanding over the last 6 years (probably longer than that). More people are joining the game and sticking with it. Lets applaud them for reprinting cards that previously were just about impossible to find.
I suppose I should have qualified my statement about card prices being stable. They move around a lot, but we aren't seeing a whole-scale crash or 300% increase of the market writ large. Yes the secondary card market fluctuates up and down for individual cards. Many of the cards you just listed could have been had for a fraction of what they are currently worth if you bought them right after they reprinted. Hell, just about every Modern Masters 2015 card can be had for cheaper now than prior to when the set was printed. Chord of Calling? It just got reprinted in M15 and can still be had for less than 1/2 of it's highest price prior to reprint. I guess my question has to do with what are your expectations? Do you expect cards to not only lose value, but never appreciate? If that's the case, then you are completely ignoring several important aspects of this being a collectible card game.
As for making formats accessible, This has been discussed ad nauseum in other threads. It simply is not in Wizards' best interests if people are playing Legacy and Modern. Their money maker is standard and limited. The Masters series has been a great addition to Wizards' lineup to deflate card prices some without completely crashing their prices. Also, I cannot believe that anyone complains that the MMA series generating more interest in the format is a bad thing.
Whatever you or I think, Wizards has been doing a great job with the game. It's been regularly expanding over the last 6 years (probably longer than that). More people are joining the game and sticking with it. Lets applaud them for reprinting cards that previously were just about impossible to find.
I gave this topic a lot of thought before deciding to reply (and I'm already predicting that I'll regret it to some degree).
Let's put it this way: On a general consensus I do agree with your point of view (in reality I'm more of a fence-sitter tilting towards your point of view, but if there's anything I learnt, directly expressing an opinion on the fence gets one utterly destroyed by the extreme ends of each side), but I'm afraid I'm going to have to run the Devil's Advocate on some specific points of the whole plan because I think WotC has passed the point of "experimentation".
First off, I want to raise the two major points of the Masters Series - the MSRP and the print run. I will never be supporting a "reprint everything to the ground and crash everything" idea of having it literally be a Chronicles equivalent of today's print runs, because the amount of salt from pretty much all similar topics convinces me there's a group that will never be happy until they can get every card at bulk prices and enter a format with the best deck costing less than the MSRP of an Event Deck - the game should never head that direction.
The specifics, however, is where it gets tricky. Dropping the first group I mentioned above out, we move on to the argument of "But if it's printed at Standard Prices and Print Runs, it wouldn't exactly cause a Chronicles to happen, would it?", which is the point of view of some people. Here is where I take the fence and get blasted by both sides - they are partially correct.
They cannot be entirely correct (from my point of view), because the opposing end raises an important point - WotC's bread and butter is ultimate Standard and the Limited-that-feeds-Standard. At this point of time, I do not see anyone on the "More-Reprints" side can even deny that if a Masters Series ran on the exact same formula as a Standard print run, it would not take away any attention from the Standard Print Run. It doesn't work this way - if I had the choice to draft SOI or MM2 at the same "Standard Price", I would almost pick MM2 every time. None of us have infinite budget and our preferences will always result in a potential loss to the Standard Limited System. Reminder that I already eliminated the "Crash everything to the ground" argument, so "Crash everything to the ground so that a Masters Draft is not as enticing as a Standard Draft" is not an option to me.
Here comes the Devil's Advocate that's going to get me annihilated from the other side - the crux of the mistake Wizards made. For a format to be still attractive to the majority as a Limited format, but for it not to compete directly with their main business - the poison of price or print run is brought up. Wizards though that by raising both, they would mitigate each other, but that is the crux of the mistake - it doesn't. Or to be more accurate, it worked the first time (for Modern Masters), but was a huge mistake the second time round (Modern Masters 2). Hypothetically Eternal Masters looks set to continue the same mistake because it doesn't address the crux of the issue, which less about the specific cards printed at what rarities (that's an issue in itself, but not the one I'm raising - I know it was the original topic, but this entire thread has dissolved back the the generic argument we got about Masters Series anyway...), but the fact that they didn't even address the issue that made the Masters Set unappealing to draft.
WotC learnt from Modern Masters 1 that you can't just shove a set with majority-value (Yes I'm aware it has its chaff, but its mythics/rares have a 47% retention of MSRP at 10 rate - I know that wasn't the MSRP but I'm raising it to match the rest for easier comparison). At 47% retention rate, people weren't drafting already because they were busy opening packs for value.
Now, onto Modern Masters 2 - the retention rate was 29%, slightly more than half of the first Modern Masters (yes I'm aware that aging creates a discrepancy, but for my sanity I'm just outright comparing them at current SCG prices). Well, we all know what happened to Modern Masters 2 - still sitting on shelves longer than the first Modern Masters. People weren't opening it for value, but neither were they drafting it. The issue is no longer with the retention rate.
Some thinks the retention rate is the issue - but the retention rate is affected simply by the release of the set - whereas the reasons to draft or not to doesn't. Someone who wasn't going to draft MM2 due to price reasons isn't going to change his or her mind even if a higher retention rate is presented (said person probably didn't even draft the first Modern Masters). Retention Rate doesn't actually affect the draft decision - if it's too high I will not risk the draft (especially with the foil policy in place) and if it's too low it becomes a price issue.
Here's where I contradict myself - it looks like Price is the problem and the poison that should be chosen is the print run - but price also affects retention. For a series very affected by the Secondary Market, a simple price change can tilt the "too low" back to "too high" and people will still refuse to draft because of the potential losses by doing so again and since the print run is limited, it enforces that line of thought (similar to the Reserved List, in that sense).
The actual issue is quantity. Price is a factor that can be manipulated by the Secondary Market forces, but quantity cannot. MSRP is suggested at the end of the day and its effects will show very quickly backwards as feedback if stores actually stop purchasing Masters Series due to high-initial cost to match the MSRP. Had they just increased the quantity run of MM2 but not the MSRP, I would be confident still more people will draft it even if the retention rate is the same (or actually slightly higher since the price is lower).
Note that I said "increase print run", I did not exclaim "to Standard Print Run levels", clearly even at this point of time, they're still experimenting with the factors, but I can tell that the blatant MSRP increase then was wrong. But that's the main issue for Eternal Masters - the MSRP is the same as MM2, while disastrous for people like me who don't draft due to flat price reasons, is also flat down the same for MM2 comparisons. The main issue is: How limited is this print run in comparison to MM2? If they simply increased the print run like they did with MM1 to MM2, but without any price increase this time, EMA by calculations should be a greater success in both directions compared to MM2. Not MM1 levels yet, but MM1 was only largely a success in the players' direction, not the company's.
If they didn't, then EMA is literally repeating the same mistakes of MM2, where the over-cautiousness backfired on the intention. I'm all for WotC being cautious, but MM2 was a rather blatant mistake even when I took cautiousness into account and which way EMA heads is dependent on the only single factor (print run) we cannot exactly measure yet, since MSRP is already known information.
Interesting train of thought. I would guess that the point you're trying to make is that if it was at the MSRP of MM1 ($7/pack) instead of $10, there might be more drafters. Additionally, if Wizards increased the supply a bit more (say, closer to MM2 levels), we'd see a pronounced drop in the EV of packs, to where it's actually still worth it to draft.
Did I catch the meaning of your post?
If so, I think that what you propose is possible. I'm not sure I agree with the MM2 retention thoughts though. Many people didn't want to draft the MM2 set because it was a mythic lottery. If you stood, say, a 35 or 40% chance of pulling something relevant, I think you'd do better.
The other concern I see is with the secondary market. If the EV of a box is about $250, the secondary market will drive the price up to $250 until the EV calculation decreases to a lower number. My guess is that Wizards doesn't quite have enough control or ability to forecast a precise drop in pricing to achieve that end, nor do they know exactly what the print run must be in order to achieve a specific price point for cards.
That's probably Wizards' biggest issue - don't release enough and barely make a dent in pricing. release too much and risk crashing the secondary market. They seem to be more on the conservative side.
I'd actually say that if Wizards' goal was to hit an EV of say, $175-180/box they probably did a good job on MM2. That release (while the card choices were suspect) did deflate the market for just about every card printed.
Interesting train of thought. I would guess that the point you're trying to make is that if it was at the MSRP of MM1 ($7/pack) instead of $10, there might be more drafters. Additionally, if Wizards increased the supply a bit more (say, closer to MM2 levels), we'd see a pronounced drop in the EV of packs, to where it's actually still worth it to draft.
Did I catch the meaning of your post?
If so, I think that what you propose is possible. I'm not sure I agree with the MM2 retention thoughts though. Many people didn't want to draft the MM2 set because it was a mythic lottery. If you stood, say, a 35 or 40% chance of pulling something relevant, I think you'd do better.
The other concern I see is with the secondary market. If the EV of a box is about $250, the secondary market will drive the price up to $250 until the EV calculation decreases to a lower number. My guess is that Wizards doesn't quite have enough control or ability to forecast a precise drop in pricing to achieve that end, nor do they know exactly what the print run must be in order to achieve a specific price point for cards.
That's probably Wizards' biggest issue - don't release enough and barely make a dent in pricing. release too much and risk crashing the secondary market. They seem to be more on the conservative side.
I'd actually say that if Wizards' goal was to hit an EV of say, $175-180/box they probably did a good job on MM2. That release (while the card choices were suspect) did deflate the market for just about every card printed.
Thoughts?
You got the general idea. I know WotC is being cautious, but after considering the relative aggressiveness of the Secondary Market, I think they can be slightly more aggressive in the supply of the Masters Series without any repercussions, honestly speaking. While I'm a firm believer that accessibility does not equate to affordability (accessibility is determined by movement), but I think some thought to affordability of cards on the high-end should be given consideration - the Secondary Market moves so aggressively that it's partially eroding the credibility of solely using accessibility as a measure as well.
I made calculation errors (too much numbers in my head) - MM2's retention rate is actually 29%, but it's split to like 20% Mythics and 9% rares - exactly the lottery system you were saying. If you bluntly reduced the Mythics by their 1/8 nature (not the most precise of calculations), that means the rate becomes 11.5% instead, while MM1 still has a 32% rate. EMA's retention rate is actually 30% (major mistake there), but once you factor in the Mythic reduction, it ends up at 16%. This means yes, EMA is actually a lot closer to MM2 than MM1, but fortunately not as lottery-centric.
Your concern regarding the Secondary Market is not entirely unfounded, MM1 being the best example of it even before aging. MM2 however went off in the complete opposite direction. Yes, we don't see the prices actually dropping (which would be what should have happened as I said opposite), but I attribute that to the Print Run instead so for all intents, it actually did go off in the opposite direction. WotC didn't even print enough MM2 copies to demonstrate the price drop that should have happened with a set as bad as MM2 (plus the increased MSRP also helped in the cover up).
They're overly cautious to the point it enabled them to make "mistakes" that get covered up due to the sheer lack of supply being printed. I'm convinced at this point both the price and print run were covering for MM2's dismal failure and they have to let go of one (which has to be print run now) to demonstrate the actual impact of their changes, otherwise, honestly EMA is headed down the same path of MM2, generally speaking.
Price crashes are one thing, but the print runs aren't enough to even drop the EVs of the set to the MSRP. They're working the wrong way round - they're putting in fillers that alter the retention rate greatly instead of having sufficient print supply to have the set's EV go down to MSRP and that's partially due to all the mythic-loading due to value, which is the same process, except in card/rarity-form. Technically speaking, they're not even doing enough to even retain the Secondary Market prices, let alone for a possibility of a crash.
I'll agree that Wizards has done a great job with the game over the years, and overall, Eternal Masters looks pretty cool. However, several of the rarity upshifts in this set bother me, with Pyrokinesis topping the list, followed by Worldgorger Dragon. Are either of these cards so great for limited that they needed to be in the set at all? Neither of these cards are in high demand, nor are they tough to find for those that want them. Further, they don't contribute meaningfully to any draft archetype. So for many of these cards, the question becomes: Should it be upshifted, or eliminated from the set? For these two and several others, I say boot'em.
The flip side of that argument is that several upshifts were completely warranted (the tutors, Sinkhole) or a bit iffy (Shardless Agent).
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In general I agree with what you're saying. One thing I will note is that EV of EMA was currently at $10.44 /pack as of Friday (I believe it was brought up in the full spoiler thread). That's pretty much dead on to MSRP. When this set is opened, any appreciable drop will alter the EV to below MSRP. How much of a drop remains to be seen.
The biggest issue with the modern masters series is that there are already too many cards with prices high enough that the current model is tough. With so many high value cards, if Wizards puts those in AND a lot of $5-$20 rares in as well the EV of the boxes would be $300-$350 and the secondary market would correct itself by pricing the boxes as such.
What might be a better solution is more regular releases of the MM series. Instead of every other year, doing it yearly might do the trick. That gives Wizards' more control over releases, helps combat rampant inflation, allows them more latitude in what is reprinted....
It's always interesting how often two opposing groups can be so fervent in their viewpoints that they literally cannot comprehend how anyone could stand on the other side and disagree with them. It's one thing to understand the other sides viewpoint and then respectfully disagree but here in these price discussions I often get the impression both sides are in total confusion as to how anyone could argue the other sides view.
On one side you have the people who wanted the set to be filled with expensive staples and have a huge print run. They have no qualms with the secondary market being affected, as they just want the prices of cards to drop and the overall supply to increase. They see no problem with the value of cards being slashed. They see increasing the supply of high priced staples as good for the game because it will make formats more accessible for people who are either unwilling or unable to drop $1000 on a deck. These people see spending $100 on a card as a single transaction with no guarantee of retained value. As such they are much less willing to drop $100 on a card.
On the other side, you have the people who see the set as being perfectly fine the way it is due to the EV of the packs being close to the selling price of the booster. They also appreciate the stability of the secondary market. They are much more willing to spend $100 on a card because they trust that they will very likely be able to resell the card at a later date for somewhere close to that price. They are okay with spending $1000 on a deck because they see the price of playing the deck as just the difference in the purchase and sale price when they are finished with it. These people have grown to trust in that reasonable stability in the secondary market and that it in and of itself is a large part of what generates willingness in people to purchase such expensive cards.
I'm sure this will just generate flames from both sides telling me how wrong I am about either group, but that is just my thoughts looking in.
Funny... I was actually typing up a reply and didn't see this come in. You're absolutely right. Wizards is also doing a good job of balancing both sides as well. We do get some reprints, but they don't flood the market. Card prices are relatively stable and allows hundreds (Thousands?) of others to make a living in the secondary market. Sounds good to me!
/edit I suppose what I am advocating for is the status quo. What Wizards has been doing, while not perfect, does seem to strike a good balance between all of the interested parties in Magic. At this point I just don't want them to upset the apple cart.
This is literally what my OP was about. I think wizards us doing a terrific job balancing everyone's interests. The only people complaining seem to be a subset of players who think this game should be essentially free. My parting shot would be this: "Hey, this game is terrific, and if you don't like the game as it is because of cost concerns, go play Hearthstone or Yugioh."
I agree with the OP on this one. People complaining about reprints and rarity shifts have apparently never played Yugioh...
Ding ding. Cards have to be worth something to have a game to play. Yugioh isnt a game anymore becuase they did not value their consumers investments in their game.
In general I agree with what you're saying. One thing I will note is that EV of EMA was currently at $10.44 /pack as of Friday (I believe it was brought up in the full spoiler thread). That's pretty much dead on to MSRP. When this set is opened, any appreciable drop will alter the EV to below MSRP. How much of a drop remains to be seen.
The biggest issue with the modern masters series is that there are already too many cards with prices high enough that the current model is tough. With so many high value cards, if Wizards puts those in AND a lot of $5-$20 rares in as well the EV of the boxes would be $300-$350 and the secondary market would correct itself by pricing the boxes as such.
What might be a better solution is more regular releases of the MM series. Instead of every other year, doing it yearly might do the trick. That gives Wizards' more control over releases, helps combat rampant inflation, allows them more latitude in what is reprinted....
One of the issues with EV vs RRP (MSRP) is that it might match in the US, but once you go into other areas it doesn't even start out matching. Our boosters are MSRP £204 per box of 24, but the value of the cards does not match that 8.50 per booster. Cards tend to sell individually at 50% SCG-60% SCG dollar price with a £ sign, meaning we need 15/16$ worth of cards in that booster......
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I agree with the OP on this one. People complaining about reprints and rarity shifts have apparently never played Yugioh...
Ding ding. Cards have to be worth something to have a game to play. Yugioh isnt a game anymore becuase they did not value their consumers investments in their game.
It's Konami. Do you really think they would hesitate to cancel a project that wasn't making them money? Check out how the new Silent Hills game... got cancelled for some slots abomination. Yugioh isnt' doing well in the States, but is continuing to grow worldwide.
Wizards is doing a great job of maintaining the status quo? What's the % increase in deck prices over the last few years? Pick any format, and the price of a competitive, Tier 1/1.5/2 deck has increased, most of them significantly. Deck prices continue to increase, people continue to be priced out of formats, Legacy and Vintage continue to stagnate under the RL, and this is "doing a good job?"
I'm still confused as to why printing Thoughtseize, Fetchlands, Mutavault, and Shocklands as Rares in expansions with the print run of a Standard expansion was just fine, but somehow printing EMA with that same print run size would be disaster. The response to reprinting old cards has, so far, been overwhelmingly positive. I'm certain that Wizards, with all the data they have on sales, could adjust the print run sizes to mostly meet demand, but they're far too conservative. I don't even mind the $10/pack MSRP, but the upshifts in rarity just to preserve secondary market value, combined with the limited print run, just imply that they are more concerned with making money for SCG/CFB than in getting these cards in the hands of players.
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Cards are game pieces, and should be treated as such, easily replaceable.
Cards are not money, investments, or a retirement fund, and should never have been treated as such.
Wizards made a mistake caving to speculators once, and we still pay for that mistake 2 decades later.
"Entitled:" the entire ad hominem fallacy condensed into a single word. It doesn't strengthen your argument to attack motivations, it just makes you look like you don't understand the argument.
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I am fine with the rarity shift because this set is designed for limited. they don't want you to easily draft the elfball deck, that makes sense to me. they made a limited run of these cards to appease collectors. I am okay with this. wizards has to walk a fine line between appeasing a small number of collectors and an overwhelming majority of people interested in actually playing the game. only a small number of the latter group are even super interested in this set. most people don't play older formats and don't want/need some of these expensive reprints.
unpopular opinion: I didn't play the game in the early 90's because I was 3 when the game came out. not only do I not care about most long-time/big time hoarders/collectors in this game, but I think they are generally toxic to the community. the world does not revolve around you or the thousands of dollars you have invested in this game. it is a game with cards that are meant to be played, not to be collected and treated like stocks or a trust fund you can retire on later. I love this game because it is the greatest game I have ever played, I never learned it so I could make money off of it (though it would be cool to go pro). if you value your collection more than the actual gameplay and time you spend using your cards/interacting with other players, I think your priorities may be a bit off.
there are two things wizards can do: cater to the growing playerbase, the majority of which are casual players who never even want to go to a tournament, or cater to the collectors who treat the game as an investment. one of the choices affects very few people, the other choice continues to grow the game by making it more accessible to those who haven't played since the game's inception and don't have these scarce, expensive cards to play older formats. wizards does not want to relive what happened when chronicles was released, and although EMA might not be perfect, it is as close as we will get so long as wizards chooses to continue the balancing act of trying to grow the game while still appeasing hardcore collectors/investors.
Your numbers are off here. These are not 36 pack / 6 box cases. instead 24 pack / 4 box cases. So, 96 packs vs the standard 216 packs. You will NOT be getting 2 of each mythic in these cases. Without knowing actual print run I can not say the actual numbers of each new mythic hitting the market but even still your example is assuming ALL boxes/cases are opened in the near future. Actually, there might be 400,000 of each new mythic printed (highly unlikely ) but no more than half of the entire print run will be opened in the near future. SO, while prices are affected in the near term they tend to bounce back because of the lack of actual supply. Also of note, IF the game continues to grow worldwide the demand far exceeds the entire print run regardless. Just for giggles, lets say there are 250,000 cases or 1 million boxes printed (btw msrp of entire run 240 MILLION dollars) with each box having 3 mythics included. We would get 3 million total mythics / 15 different mythics / 200,000 of each mythic .
I've bolded two parts. The first is simply wrong. The VAST majority of players back in the early 90s were players - mostly teenagers. At that time very few thought "Wow... in 20 years this Magic thing is going to be awesome and I'm going to buy everything and preserve it perfectly!" Most thought it was a passing fancy along with several other TCGs that popped up at the time - Star Wars CCG, Star Trek TCG, Jyhad, etc. Nobody would have predicted the game to continue on with the growth that it has had. I'm guessing you simply were not around back then and do not have first hand experience. Nothing wrong with that, but this supposition on your part is not correct.
The second part - The comparison is absolutely valid. Yes the distribution of players is different, but I argue that there are more collectors now than there ever were in the game. Now there is history and lore behind the cards. As for the the number of people that would up and leave over an unlimited print run is a pittance? That is pure supposition. I say it will destroy the game. The difference between our two positions? History. It nearly happened once before. Feel free to disagree with me as is your right, but history is on my side and Wizards is not willing to put that big of a risk on the table. I applaud that decision since I want this game to be around another 20 years.
Now is this because most people aren't interested in playing eternal formats, or because it costs literally thousands to tens of thousands of dollars to get in to an eternal format and most people aren't insane enough to drop 10-50% of the median annual household income on a hobby game?
I started playing around Tempest--i took a long gap off in the early to mid-2000s. On the one hand I'm glad reprint sets like this pop up from time to time, because the old printings if of the reprinted cards generally lose about half of their value for some time (the new printings are often even cheaper) and become more accessible. This is how I was able to pick up s a lot of the original shocks, Mirrodin block staples, etc. On the other hand, I'm glad they're a limited print run product, because that means at some point my cards are going to retain and then regain their value--at least until the next printing is necessitated by outrageous prices for staple cards.
I think these products strike a great balance in that respect. I don't think I'll buy a box necessarily, but I'd like to draft it a few times and I'd definitely pick up some of the staples missing from my collection.
Hey if you are gonna post -snip- ***** then why even post?
Nothing prevents wizards from printing more FoVs at common. The costs to manufacture one ema booster are pretty much identical to soi booster but for some reason ema booster costs 5 times more.
it's probably the latter reason you listed that causes the former feeling of disinterest.
I don't know if you were referring to my post, but I should have been more clear. there are those of us who play lots of magic, and by virtue of that we are 'collectors' because we have a substantial collection. the toxic individuals I am talking about are the kind of people who find out ancestral vision is unbanned and decide to do a massive online buyout. those kinds of people I have nothing but contempt for. perhaps I am wrong but I think the most you need of any card besides shadowborn apostle and relentless rats is 4 copies. any more than that and you are either lazy because you don't move your copies between decks when you play ones that need them (which I totally understand by the way) OR you are looking to make an investment and not do what nature intended which is to play with the cards you own.
Not true. I sleeve most games I own. Including board games and other card games. I prefer shuffling sleeved cards and I enjoy the longevity it provides.
Such Doom and Gloom! "My collection will be worthless!!!" Only, recent reprints have proven that to be false. Collections take a hit, sure, but the original printings ALWAYS maintain some value, and it seems that they always stay higher in price than the reprints. Almost like they have some value as a collectible. Your game pieces are cardboard. If you bought into them thinking of them as investments, you made a mistake. If you bought into them AFTER the Official Reprint Policy spelled out, in no uncertain terms, that anything not on the Reserve List was fair game for a reprint, and still expect Wizards to act to preserve the value of your cardboard, then you made a mistake and are trying to make other people pay for it instead of admitting it.
You can check my signature for what I think about "investing" in game pieces. And WHY is it so important that "you should expect to have to pay for it?" I don't understand the train of thought that says that it's up to WotC to limit copies of cards for their game so that people who aren't even buying those cards from WotC can maintain value. Wizards should be concerned with selling packs, not making money for SCG, CFB, Lakanna, or Mogg Flunky. Their focus should be on growing the game, not on stifling it so that you and I can claim that we have x thousands of dollars worth of cards. (I don't know about you, but I don't plan on ever selling my collection- so what it's "worth" to me is entirely play value, and that DROPS when I have nobody to play against. Like when people who haven't been playing for 20 years can't afford the buy-in.)
All of the people who left the game because Thoughtseize lost a ton of value, because Shocks fell to a quarter of their value when they were reprinted, because Fetchlands dropped when they were reprinted? That's right: not enough to change the overwhelming approval of those reprints. Compared to how many players, both new and old, were ECSTATIC to be able to get those cards, the people who "left the game" because their high-dollar cards took a nosedive weren't relevant. Why do you believe that any other set of reprints would have a different effect? Chronicles was 20 years ago, was MASSIVELY overprinted (imagine they printed Conspiracy, but with 3x the print run. That's how much they overshot it,) and taught them valuable lessons, which is why they do market research now. Chronicles could only happen now if several people were explicitly doing the exact opposite of their job in predicting what the demand will be, and it's time to stop saying "But Chronicles" when Chronicles isn't even a possibility anymore.
Cards are not money, investments, or a retirement fund, and should never have been treated as such.
Wizards made a mistake caving to speculators once, and we still pay for that mistake 2 decades later.
"Entitled:" the entire ad hominem fallacy condensed into a single word. It doesn't strengthen your argument to attack motivations, it just makes you look like you don't understand the argument.
On one side you have the people who wanted the set to be filled with expensive staples and have a huge print run. They have no qualms with the secondary market being affected, as they just want the prices of cards to drop and the overall supply to increase. They see no problem with the value of cards being slashed. They see increasing the supply of high priced staples as good for the game because it will make formats more accessible for people who are either unwilling or unable to drop $1000 on a deck. These people see spending $100 on a card as a single transaction with no guarantee of retained value. As such they are much less willing to drop $100 on a card.
On the other side, you have the people who see the set as being perfectly fine the way it is due to the EV of the packs being close to the selling price of the booster. They also appreciate the stability of the secondary market. They are much more willing to spend $100 on a card because they trust that they will very likely be able to resell the card at a later date for somewhere close to that price. They are okay with spending $1000 on a deck because they see the price of playing the deck as just the difference in the purchase and sale price when they are finished with it. These people have grown to trust in that reasonable stability in the secondary market and that it in and of itself is a large part of what generates willingness in people to purchase such expensive cards.
I'm sure this will just generate flames from both sides telling me how wrong I am about either group, but that is just my thoughts looking in.
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go back and read all of my posts in this thread. I have already stated that Wizards would simply never open the floodgates and reprint to the ground. My post was directly against Lord_Darkview saying that Wizards should have taken the entire EMA print run and make it an unlimited run for 2 years.
I agree that individual reprints as you mentioned above was fine. I don't believe that people have too much of a concern when there are a handful of cards reprinted in future sets. The concern comes if Wizards decides to make an entire reprint set that has an unlimited run. That would shake consumer confidence in the secondary market as it would be the 2016 version of Chronicles.
Again though, it will never happen. Wizards already knows not to do unlimited print runs of reprint sets.
/edit again - I don't understand why we continue to talk in the extremes. People are ok with fluctuations or devaluations as Wizards does small print run reprint sets like EMA and with individual cards being brought back into standard.
Additionally - people do buy cards to play with. While not specifically an investment, people do expect that their cards will retain a modicum of value. Price fluctuations up or down is just part of the way the secondary market works and Wizards policy of reprinting. What many in the game are not OK with is the complete and total reprint-to-the-ground mentality that some on this board seem to advocate.
There are shades of gray in the middle - where Chronicles style reprints is on one side and never reprinting a card like the Reserve list is on the other. Thankfully Wizards is able to work effectively between the two extremes. I think they've found a good balance of reprinting hard to find cards in EMA, bringing old cards like the fetches into standard, and keeping collectors happy.
Funny... I was actually typing up a reply and didn't see this come in. You're absolutely right. Wizards is also doing a good job of balancing both sides as well. We do get some reprints, but they don't flood the market. Card prices are relatively stable and allows hundreds (Thousands?) of others to make a living in the secondary market. Sounds good to me!
/edit I suppose what I am advocating for is the status quo. What Wizards has been doing, while not perfect, does seem to strike a good balance between all of the interested parties in Magic. At this point I just don't want them to upset the apple cart.
Card prices are relatively stable? I completely disagree. Many important Modern and Legacy cards have seen their price double or triple within the last year or two. Goblin Guide, Aether Vial, Chalice of the Void, and Chord of Calling are just a few examples of this. All of these but Goblin Guide have seen recent reprints as well. Other cards, like Zendikar fetches, are all over the place - spiking up and dropping down.
I wouldn't call card prices stable at all. Wizards allowed prices to get completely out of hand and are now more concerned with keeping SCG and CFB happy while still generating revenue than making formats accessible. MMA, EMA, all this crap exists solely as a product for Magic players to consume. They are continually holding important cards back to save chase rares for an upcoming Masters set (since Masters is more important to Hasbro as a product to consume) and so any price decreases in reprint staples A B and C will result in price increases in old staples X Y and Z. It's simple supply and demand. If anything, Masters products only make things worse as every time one is released it generates more interest in the format.
Masters sets are good basically only for Commander players and cube builders.
I suppose I should have qualified my statement about card prices being stable. They move around a lot, but we aren't seeing a whole-scale crash or 300% increase of the market writ large. Yes the secondary card market fluctuates up and down for individual cards. Many of the cards you just listed could have been had for a fraction of what they are currently worth if you bought them right after they reprinted. Hell, just about every Modern Masters 2015 card can be had for cheaper now than prior to when the set was printed. Chord of Calling? It just got reprinted in M15 and can still be had for less than 1/2 of it's highest price prior to reprint. I guess my question has to do with what are your expectations? Do you expect cards to not only lose value, but never appreciate? If that's the case, then you are completely ignoring several important aspects of this being a collectible card game.
As for making formats accessible, This has been discussed ad nauseum in other threads. It simply is not in Wizards' best interests if people are playing Legacy and Modern. Their money maker is standard and limited. The Masters series has been a great addition to Wizards' lineup to deflate card prices some without completely crashing their prices. Also, I cannot believe that anyone complains that the MMA series generating more interest in the format is a bad thing.
Whatever you or I think, Wizards has been doing a great job with the game. It's been regularly expanding over the last 6 years (probably longer than that). More people are joining the game and sticking with it. Lets applaud them for reprinting cards that previously were just about impossible to find.
I gave this topic a lot of thought before deciding to reply (and I'm already predicting that I'll regret it to some degree).
Let's put it this way: On a general consensus I do agree with your point of view (in reality I'm more of a fence-sitter tilting towards your point of view, but if there's anything I learnt, directly expressing an opinion on the fence gets one utterly destroyed by the extreme ends of each side), but I'm afraid I'm going to have to run the Devil's Advocate on some specific points of the whole plan because I think WotC has passed the point of "experimentation".
First off, I want to raise the two major points of the Masters Series - the MSRP and the print run. I will never be supporting a "reprint everything to the ground and crash everything" idea of having it literally be a Chronicles equivalent of today's print runs, because the amount of salt from pretty much all similar topics convinces me there's a group that will never be happy until they can get every card at bulk prices and enter a format with the best deck costing less than the MSRP of an Event Deck - the game should never head that direction.
The specifics, however, is where it gets tricky. Dropping the first group I mentioned above out, we move on to the argument of "But if it's printed at Standard Prices and Print Runs, it wouldn't exactly cause a Chronicles to happen, would it?", which is the point of view of some people. Here is where I take the fence and get blasted by both sides - they are partially correct.
They cannot be entirely correct (from my point of view), because the opposing end raises an important point - WotC's bread and butter is ultimate Standard and the Limited-that-feeds-Standard. At this point of time, I do not see anyone on the "More-Reprints" side can even deny that if a Masters Series ran on the exact same formula as a Standard print run, it would not take away any attention from the Standard Print Run. It doesn't work this way - if I had the choice to draft SOI or MM2 at the same "Standard Price", I would almost pick MM2 every time. None of us have infinite budget and our preferences will always result in a potential loss to the Standard Limited System. Reminder that I already eliminated the "Crash everything to the ground" argument, so "Crash everything to the ground so that a Masters Draft is not as enticing as a Standard Draft" is not an option to me.
Here comes the Devil's Advocate that's going to get me annihilated from the other side - the crux of the mistake Wizards made. For a format to be still attractive to the majority as a Limited format, but for it not to compete directly with their main business - the poison of price or print run is brought up. Wizards though that by raising both, they would mitigate each other, but that is the crux of the mistake - it doesn't. Or to be more accurate, it worked the first time (for Modern Masters), but was a huge mistake the second time round (Modern Masters 2). Hypothetically Eternal Masters looks set to continue the same mistake because it doesn't address the crux of the issue, which less about the specific cards printed at what rarities (that's an issue in itself, but not the one I'm raising - I know it was the original topic, but this entire thread has dissolved back the the generic argument we got about Masters Series anyway...), but the fact that they didn't even address the issue that made the Masters Set unappealing to draft.
WotC learnt from Modern Masters 1 that you can't just shove a set with majority-value (Yes I'm aware it has its chaff, but its mythics/rares have a 47% retention of MSRP at 10 rate - I know that wasn't the MSRP but I'm raising it to match the rest for easier comparison). At 47% retention rate, people weren't drafting already because they were busy opening packs for value.
Now, onto Modern Masters 2 - the retention rate was 29%, slightly more than half of the first Modern Masters (yes I'm aware that aging creates a discrepancy, but for my sanity I'm just outright comparing them at current SCG prices). Well, we all know what happened to Modern Masters 2 - still sitting on shelves longer than the first Modern Masters. People weren't opening it for value, but neither were they drafting it. The issue is no longer with the retention rate.
Some thinks the retention rate is the issue - but the retention rate is affected simply by the release of the set - whereas the reasons to draft or not to doesn't. Someone who wasn't going to draft MM2 due to price reasons isn't going to change his or her mind even if a higher retention rate is presented (said person probably didn't even draft the first Modern Masters). Retention Rate doesn't actually affect the draft decision - if it's too high I will not risk the draft (especially with the foil policy in place) and if it's too low it becomes a price issue.
Here's where I contradict myself - it looks like Price is the problem and the poison that should be chosen is the print run - but price also affects retention. For a series very affected by the Secondary Market, a simple price change can tilt the "too low" back to "too high" and people will still refuse to draft because of the potential losses by doing so again and since the print run is limited, it enforces that line of thought (similar to the Reserved List, in that sense).
The actual issue is quantity. Price is a factor that can be manipulated by the Secondary Market forces, but quantity cannot. MSRP is suggested at the end of the day and its effects will show very quickly backwards as feedback if stores actually stop purchasing Masters Series due to high-initial cost to match the MSRP. Had they just increased the quantity run of MM2 but not the MSRP, I would be confident still more people will draft it even if the retention rate is the same (or actually slightly higher since the price is lower).
Note that I said "increase print run", I did not exclaim "to Standard Print Run levels", clearly even at this point of time, they're still experimenting with the factors, but I can tell that the blatant MSRP increase then was wrong. But that's the main issue for Eternal Masters - the MSRP is the same as MM2, while disastrous for people like me who don't draft due to flat price reasons, is also flat down the same for MM2 comparisons. The main issue is: How limited is this print run in comparison to MM2? If they simply increased the print run like they did with MM1 to MM2, but without any price increase this time, EMA by calculations should be a greater success in both directions compared to MM2. Not MM1 levels yet, but MM1 was only largely a success in the players' direction, not the company's.
If they didn't, then EMA is literally repeating the same mistakes of MM2, where the over-cautiousness backfired on the intention. I'm all for WotC being cautious, but MM2 was a rather blatant mistake even when I took cautiousness into account and which way EMA heads is dependent on the only single factor (print run) we cannot exactly measure yet, since MSRP is already known information.
EDIT: Fixed some calculation errors.
Interesting train of thought. I would guess that the point you're trying to make is that if it was at the MSRP of MM1 ($7/pack) instead of $10, there might be more drafters. Additionally, if Wizards increased the supply a bit more (say, closer to MM2 levels), we'd see a pronounced drop in the EV of packs, to where it's actually still worth it to draft.
Did I catch the meaning of your post?
If so, I think that what you propose is possible. I'm not sure I agree with the MM2 retention thoughts though. Many people didn't want to draft the MM2 set because it was a mythic lottery. If you stood, say, a 35 or 40% chance of pulling something relevant, I think you'd do better.
The other concern I see is with the secondary market. If the EV of a box is about $250, the secondary market will drive the price up to $250 until the EV calculation decreases to a lower number. My guess is that Wizards doesn't quite have enough control or ability to forecast a precise drop in pricing to achieve that end, nor do they know exactly what the print run must be in order to achieve a specific price point for cards.
That's probably Wizards' biggest issue - don't release enough and barely make a dent in pricing. release too much and risk crashing the secondary market. They seem to be more on the conservative side.
I'd actually say that if Wizards' goal was to hit an EV of say, $175-180/box they probably did a good job on MM2. That release (while the card choices were suspect) did deflate the market for just about every card printed.
Thoughts?
You got the general idea. I know WotC is being cautious, but after considering the relative aggressiveness of the Secondary Market, I think they can be slightly more aggressive in the supply of the Masters Series without any repercussions, honestly speaking. While I'm a firm believer that accessibility does not equate to affordability (accessibility is determined by movement), but I think some thought to affordability of cards on the high-end should be given consideration - the Secondary Market moves so aggressively that it's partially eroding the credibility of solely using accessibility as a measure as well.
I made calculation errors (too much numbers in my head) - MM2's retention rate is actually 29%, but it's split to like 20% Mythics and 9% rares - exactly the lottery system you were saying. If you bluntly reduced the Mythics by their 1/8 nature (not the most precise of calculations), that means the rate becomes 11.5% instead, while MM1 still has a 32% rate. EMA's retention rate is actually 30% (major mistake there), but once you factor in the Mythic reduction, it ends up at 16%. This means yes, EMA is actually a lot closer to MM2 than MM1, but fortunately not as lottery-centric.
Your concern regarding the Secondary Market is not entirely unfounded, MM1 being the best example of it even before aging. MM2 however went off in the complete opposite direction. Yes, we don't see the prices actually dropping (which would be what should have happened as I said opposite), but I attribute that to the Print Run instead so for all intents, it actually did go off in the opposite direction. WotC didn't even print enough MM2 copies to demonstrate the price drop that should have happened with a set as bad as MM2 (plus the increased MSRP also helped in the cover up).
They're overly cautious to the point it enabled them to make "mistakes" that get covered up due to the sheer lack of supply being printed. I'm convinced at this point both the price and print run were covering for MM2's dismal failure and they have to let go of one (which has to be print run now) to demonstrate the actual impact of their changes, otherwise, honestly EMA is headed down the same path of MM2, generally speaking.
Price crashes are one thing, but the print runs aren't enough to even drop the EVs of the set to the MSRP. They're working the wrong way round - they're putting in fillers that alter the retention rate greatly instead of having sufficient print supply to have the set's EV go down to MSRP and that's partially due to all the mythic-loading due to value, which is the same process, except in card/rarity-form. Technically speaking, they're not even doing enough to even retain the Secondary Market prices, let alone for a possibility of a crash.
The flip side of that argument is that several upshifts were completely warranted (the tutors, Sinkhole) or a bit iffy (Shardless Agent).
My 720 Peasant Cube
The biggest issue with the modern masters series is that there are already too many cards with prices high enough that the current model is tough. With so many high value cards, if Wizards puts those in AND a lot of $5-$20 rares in as well the EV of the boxes would be $300-$350 and the secondary market would correct itself by pricing the boxes as such.
What might be a better solution is more regular releases of the MM series. Instead of every other year, doing it yearly might do the trick. That gives Wizards' more control over releases, helps combat rampant inflation, allows them more latitude in what is reprinted....
This is literally what my OP was about. I think wizards us doing a terrific job balancing everyone's interests. The only people complaining seem to be a subset of players who think this game should be essentially free. My parting shot would be this: "Hey, this game is terrific, and if you don't like the game as it is because of cost concerns, go play Hearthstone or Yugioh."
I'm actually quite happy with what Wizards is doing. I hope they continue the bang-up job and keep up the status quo.
Ding ding. Cards have to be worth something to have a game to play. Yugioh isnt a game anymore becuase they did not value their consumers investments in their game.
My wife was on MTV with this video.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUutIZg2EpU
One of the issues with EV vs RRP (MSRP) is that it might match in the US, but once you go into other areas it doesn't even start out matching. Our boosters are MSRP £204 per box of 24, but the value of the cards does not match that 8.50 per booster. Cards tend to sell individually at 50% SCG-60% SCG dollar price with a £ sign, meaning we need 15/16$ worth of cards in that booster......
It's Konami. Do you really think they would hesitate to cancel a project that wasn't making them money? Check out how the new Silent Hills game... got cancelled for some slots abomination. Yugioh isnt' doing well in the States, but is continuing to grow worldwide.
Wizards is doing a great job of maintaining the status quo? What's the % increase in deck prices over the last few years? Pick any format, and the price of a competitive, Tier 1/1.5/2 deck has increased, most of them significantly. Deck prices continue to increase, people continue to be priced out of formats, Legacy and Vintage continue to stagnate under the RL, and this is "doing a good job?"
I'm still confused as to why printing Thoughtseize, Fetchlands, Mutavault, and Shocklands as Rares in expansions with the print run of a Standard expansion was just fine, but somehow printing EMA with that same print run size would be disaster. The response to reprinting old cards has, so far, been overwhelmingly positive. I'm certain that Wizards, with all the data they have on sales, could adjust the print run sizes to mostly meet demand, but they're far too conservative. I don't even mind the $10/pack MSRP, but the upshifts in rarity just to preserve secondary market value, combined with the limited print run, just imply that they are more concerned with making money for SCG/CFB than in getting these cards in the hands of players.
Cards are not money, investments, or a retirement fund, and should never have been treated as such.
Wizards made a mistake caving to speculators once, and we still pay for that mistake 2 decades later.
"Entitled:" the entire ad hominem fallacy condensed into a single word. It doesn't strengthen your argument to attack motivations, it just makes you look like you don't understand the argument.