Wizards has yet to find the sweet spot, so to speak, between the unlimited print run of Chronicles and the overly cautious blip on the radar that was Modern Masters 2013. Further, the focus on Limited is frustrating, especially when it'll be in such short supply that most players may get three cracks at it max.
I really cant imagine that the print run numbers of Chronicles was the problem of it.
Id say it simply was that they only included crappy cards (i mean sure, Elder Dragons are cool and such, but cmon, that was like the beginning of magic with hardly any "serious" tournament structure and way less cards overall).
They are much more concernt to make sure stuff is limited and stays limited.
They really dont want to reprint all the stuff in one big swoop, it would sell super well, but they have to keep doing that over and over and that cannot work, just like in any other set, they cant put too much value in it. For reprint sets the 2ndary market is something WotC clearly has an eye on, even if they dont want to admit and they "shouldnt" do it, but they still do ... (outside of some pretty rare occasions)
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As a collector i am totally cool with super rare "reprints" of promo cards, just like the judge reward cards. These are the "value" in my eye, as they are special and highly limited, something that a regular reprint wont ever be.
So for a collector THAT promo stuff might be the real deal, not the cards that the usual player "requires" to play constructed.
Maybe WotC could use some form of "bonus points" system that you get buying stuff and playing the game and then use these points to get special Promo packs that actually contain such special promo cards. That could be a nice way to keep players interested in all kinds of product (as all of them will give points) and keep them playing active (as that gives also points) ; it would even give all these planeswalker points a MUCH MUCH needed meaning.
Chronicles, released in July 1995. Fallen Empires released in November 1994, and Homelands in October 1995. What did all 3 sets have in common? Massive overprinting that made them completely worthless. It was a mistake of the TIME, not a mistake of the SET. Using Chronicles to justify excessive restrictions on reprint sets is exactly the same argument as "Fallen Empires proved that they can't make an expansion set right- the cards in it were worthless."
They have, over time, learned to use market research to get a MUCH better picture of what they can actually sell. Nowadays, they're far more experienced about what they need to print to satisfy demand, but still have enough value in packs to sell them. They can make new expansions that draft well and still sell well. The assertion that Chronicles is at all relevent anymore is absurd, it assumes Wizards hasn't learned a single thing over the last 21 years about supply and demand. Recent high-value reprints in Standard sets seems to show they ARE capable of hitting that sweet spot. They're gun-shy about it because some voices in the community are all doom and gloom about reprints: "My VALUE! How could you do this, Wizards? I'll QUIT!"
And it seems that Wizards does listen to those voices. Coincidentally, the large resellers are the ones that would lose the most. Not distributors (Wizards primary customers), and definitely not people who just want to play Modern/legacy/Vintage/EDH: cheaper cards are better for them. It's the middlemen (unfortunatelty, this includes LGS, which is a very legitimate concern) and the "investors" who care about the EV of packs.
Here's how much I care about the set: I'm getting a box to throw into a drawer. I figure I can buy singles of the cards I want since most of them are at rare: Wasteland, Sinkhole, and a Top or two. The rest? I have them already. One of the benefits of playing since the Dark and never getting rid of anything. Wizards seems to agree with you: expensive cards and high profits for investors and resellers are important. Getting cards into the hands of people who want them isn't really. I'm not at all against Wizards making money, but I just can't understand why they don't print to demand, make the money themselves, rather than limiting the print run. That particular model makes tons of money, but not for WotC. It makes money for businesses who can crack cases an sell the inflated singles, because as Canada Bill Jones said, "I know it's crooked, but it's the only game in town."
Bolded for emphasis. This is EXACTLY correct, and the point I made in my second post. Chronicles as an argument isn't like talking about markets or warfare from the mid-20th century, it's like talking about them from antiquity! The scale involved, as well as the surrounding situation is SO different that the impact will be minimal. History is a guide, but it is not prophecy. And when people such as sealteamfive insist on yelling "But Chronicles!" over and over without actually bothering to analyze all the context, that proclamation is useless and destructive to the game. The problem is that Wizards listens to these people instead of doing analysis for itself.
As for the rest, again Lakanna has it right. Wizards has a policy that is doing alright for itself and current players, but is awful for anyone interested in eternal play (by raising the barrier to entry, and continually forcing Legacy & Vintage into decline). The only one who truly thrives on this policy that willfully abandons an obvious market is the speculators and singles retailers. And, honestly, the speculators are not contributing to the health of the game, while the retailers can suck up a bit less middle-man profiteering and still thrive on this game.
You state that you THINK the impact of another Chronicles would be minimal. Have you thought through all of the risks associated with it? Given all the conjecture on your part - the game is different, the players are different, the market is different, has very little tangible evidence that things will be different. You have given no effective arguments other than saying things aren't the same as they were 20 years ago. My arguments are based on actual facts of what happened. If you so strongly believe what you are saying, show some actual evidence as opposed to conjecture.
And I'll state again, what's in it for Wizards to make eternal an easy game to play versus standard? If there is no barrier to entry, how many people would bail on standard and just play eternal? How is this good for the people making the game?
Another question - the entire game's economy is set up in such a way that many peoples livelihoods are predicated on how the economy of the game is set up. A major change to that (say by crashing card values by reprinting to the ground as you have proposed) has what side effects? Yes, singles would be cheap. How many other side effects are there? What happens to all of the LGS's? How many simply fail because a major revenue stream (selling singles) is no longer available? How many people quit the game simply because the places they played at are closed? What happens to the price of boosters? As it currently stands there isn't enough money in selling sealed product - the margins just aren't enough to keep the lights on. What percentage of people quit the game over it? does it overtake the number of people joining OR spending more money in sealed product to offset the losses? If people are playing eternal formats, what happens to standard and the number of people actually buying new product?
You speak to me as if I haven't thought any of that through. I've spent a good deal of time on it and quite frankly the risks do not justify it.
Your final statement that retailers can suck up a bit less is just wrong. Having seen the numbers at my LGS, I'd wager that the great majority of LGS's (not CFB or SCG, but all of the little guys) are just barely making ends meet. Destroying a major revenue stream for them could easily put many out of business. If you're in business you know that it takes 400% more effort to attract 1 new client than it does to retain one. Wizards seems to be doing just fine in retaining players and still attracting new ones. Why piss off a (potentially) significant portion of your existing player base? When you start making major changes to the economy of the game it can have a potentially devastating impact.
Let me quantify this by saying that I do not know if any or all of this will come to pass if Wizards did tank secondary market values. But I imagine some of it would. If you take that large of a risk (speaking from Wizards' POV) what is the reward? If I'm the one making that decision, the reward better be massive - and I just don't see that being the case.
/edit The only major data point we have is Chronicles - hence the reason it continues to be referenced. It had a massively negative impact on the game that is still felt today. I don't want Wizards' to make a decision that *COULD* have a similar impact.
Lakanna has fielded most of this already. However, I want to address your statements regarding the impact on LGSes, especially as this is their only revenue stream in some cases.
When Wizards started and established their model, those LGSes were necessary for marketing, distribution, and even product support services. But that was 20 years ago. Nowadays, direct sales is a very big thing in all sorts of industries, and there is no reason why that model couldn't be adopted. Other retailers, like Target, also seem to work out pretty well for Wizards. They have options they didn't have 20 years ago.
The non-rotating formats are clearly facing a supply problem. There is a good argument that speculators (of which many LGSes and not-so-L GSes) are contributing to this, but are not the sole source of the problem. Wizards can either support these formats better, or watch as they wither with time (as has long been occurring with Vintage and, though slower, with Legacy). Choosing to support them has risks and costs, but also is potentially quite useful for increasing sales. This is purely a business question.
However, for the customer, this choice matters quite a bit. Wizards is effectively choosing to support the speculator over the end-user. And given that Wizards makes no money off the speculators (who rarely buy sealed product), it is probably more sound to support the end-users.
But what about the LGSes that only make money off this one product? I'm going to use a point made earlier by someone else: Wizards is not a charity. Wizards exists to make money. And Wizards only obligations ought to be to do that, which involves satisfied customers. It is their choice whether those customers are the end-users (players) or retailers.
But it's actually a false choice anyway, as most LGSes make lots of money off sealed product in any case (drafts and the like), and this won't hurt them too badly. The only ones it hurts are the singles-specialized stores. And if this was their only source of revenue and they go out of business? Tough luck. It's not Wizard's responsibility to ensure a particular retailer has a balanced business. Their only job is to look after their profit and their product.
And I think there is a good argument that the health of the product is better served by letting the speculators and singles-sellers take a bath. The additional product this would move would probably more than compensate the average balanced LGS in the short run anyway.
This is a well reasoned argument. I disagree with some portions of it (most boxes are bought from wholesalers at $72-$80 depending on level) and sell them at pretty easily found $90. 10%-15% margins don't keep the lights on unless you're moving a ton of product. I also have concerns that if, say, some percentage of the LGS's close down that there would be a decline in player base because they simply have no place to play.
I also see risks in the statements you have made. I don't know if they would have a net positive or net negative impact on the game if Wizards did decide to reprint a ton, but my belief is that it would ultimately take away from the game. Again, it's a matter of weighing risks versus rewards. Destroying LGS's who specialize in singles and collectors' values would certainly qualify as a pretty big risk, right? I agree with you that speculators are in general bad for the game and we'd be better off without them - much like counterfeiters.
I guess this is the real crux of the issue. You don't see tanking the secondary market and pushing out LGS's that specialize in singles or collectors as a problem for the game itself. I fall on the other side of that fence for all of the reasons I've laid out before. And ultimately, if Wizards thought they could make more money doing it that way I have no doubt it would happen. Lastly, I believe Wizards has a lot more information on these issues than we do and they have yet to act in the way you see fit. My conjecture on that point is that Wizards has already done this analysis and come to the realization that the rewards do not justify the risks.
As for Chronicles, at the time many of the cards printed were highly sought after. Believe it or not the Elder Dragon Legends were $50 cards prior to their reprint. Times have changed dramatically since then in terms of what people look for in the game. It was the equivalent of taking Modern Masters 1, 2, and EMA all combined into 1 set and then literally crashing the value of all the chase cards. the Commander decks and individual cards didn't tank hundreds of cards overnight. Wizards was able to print low value cards into the ground. It's a different story when they are taking $50 and $100 cards and destroying their value.
Onslaught fetches were between $50 and $115 before Khans of Tarkir launched. They were printed at rare, not mythic, in a Standard legal set that sold tons. Polluted Delta, the most valuable Onslaught fetch, is still $40 for the original printing and double the reprint version. The cards were reprinted at rare in a recent unlimited print run set that was very popular. This is pretty much the nightmare scenario for card value. And yet, Onslaught fetches are not "worthless" and no one is quitting the game over their reprinting. It's a shame that people ignore this recent and relevant point and continue to harp on about something that happened 20 years ago.
The point I am trying to make are wholescale changes to the economy of the game. I have said time and again that individual reprints of high value cards is fine, acceptable and I AGREE WITH IT!
I do not know how else to get my point across that there is a difference between individual card reprints and setting the precedent of a full on wholescale reprint set with an unlimited print run.
/edit - @FiveOD - are you trying to troll me? this exact point was brought up at least twice already in this thread.
And most of Chronicles was worthless crap, even in 1995. It was a small handful of cards whose values were "destroyed" after the release of that set, and none of them were very good to begin with. Their value came entirely from their rarity.
You know what else was a large scale reprint set with an unlimited print run? Every single core set from Revised Edition to Tenth Edition. And M10 to Magic Origins were a half reprint set with unlimited print run. And yet, somehow the game never managed to die off! Birds of Paradise has been printed seventeen times and is still a $10 card.
Whether the rewards justify the risks is really a moot point; by doing NOTHING, they take no risk at all, and continue to make tons of money. No change, no matter how beneficial to the players, is ever going to be a safer bet than what they are doing at the moment. I believe that this momentum is the same reason the RL continues to exist: there is no risk to them in keeping it, so no matter how much benefit they or the players would gain from breaking it, they choose to do nothing and take 0 risk.
That doesn't mean it's the smart thing to do, or the right thing to do. It's the SAFE thing to do, sure, but it creates a frustrated community. I personally don't trust Wizards to be able to manage the future of their game: their long-term plan for formats seems to be "throw things at the wall and see what sticks." Their continued support of the RL is choking Legacy and Vintage out of existence. The Modern bannings and unbannings with no rhyme or reason just to "shake up the format" made many people afraid to buy in because they were afraid of their deck getting banned out of nowhere.
Wizards seems to be competent at running Standard (Fetch + Battleland manabases notwithstanding) but they don't know what to do with older formats. They are trying and failing to be everything to everyone. MaRo has made the point many times that they try to juggle multiple priorities when doing reprints, and quite honestly, I don't believe that "protect the secondary market" should be one of those priorities. The secondary market is a market: it can adapt and handle itself without Wizards riding herd with their heavy-handed reprint philosophy. If they discount he "protect my value" voices, let the market sort itself out without their "help," and reprint the stuff that they can make money on in whatever quantities they believe they can sell, they make more money and players are able to afford more of the cards they want to play with. The game as a whole grows, which should be theri ultimate goal.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Cards are game pieces, and should be treated as such, easily replaceable.
Cards are not money, investments, or a retirement fund, and should never have been treated as such.
Wizards made a mistake caving to speculators once, and we still pay for that mistake 2 decades later.
"Entitled:" the entire ad hominem fallacy condensed into a single word. It doesn't strengthen your argument to attack motivations, it just makes you look like you don't understand the argument.
Whether the rewards justify the risks is really a moot point; by doing NOTHING, they take no risk at all, and continue to make tons of money. No change, no matter how beneficial to the players, is ever going to be a safer bet than what they are doing at the moment. I believe that this momentum is the same reason the RL continues to exist: there is no risk to them in keeping it, so no matter how much benefit they or the players would gain from breaking it, they choose to do nothing and take 0 risk.
Is it really as safe as you say? I firmly believe Magic is a speculator bubble at the moment, and without intervention it will inevitably burst. This has the potential to influence players to quit the game in droves.
Whether the rewards justify the risks is really a moot point; by doing NOTHING, they take no risk at all, and continue to make tons of money. No change, no matter how beneficial to the players, is ever going to be a safer bet than what they are doing at the moment. I believe that this momentum is the same reason the RL continues to exist: there is no risk to them in keeping it, so no matter how much benefit they or the players would gain from breaking it, they choose to do nothing and take 0 risk.
Is it really as safe as you say? I firmly believe Magic is a speculator bubble at the moment, and without intervention it will inevitably burst. This has the potential to influence players to quit the game in droves.
At the same time, the speculator bubble is also fragile enough that intervention at the unlimited level will burst it as well. At this point of time, would WotC take that risk of "being the villain" and take the surface-responsibility for bursting that bubble? I mean, we all know technically that the bubble is caused by speculators on one end and inaction by WotC on the other, but there's no denying that an action move will always attract way more (negative) attention than otherwise. The perfect example is Chronicles - not in the specifics of the print, but simply because WotC took action back then and we can't stop talking about it now, regardless of which side we stand on.
The speculators gambling their chances with cardboard they print aren't the real reason for inaction - the shareholders doing the same with Hasbro are the ones they are really considering their actions for... and unlike the speculators, which I do agree the game is better off without, they can't just say "screw the shareholders"... because the shareholders can also say "screw your job then" and that's a risk every individual at WotC wouldn't want to take.
At this point of time, I won't be surprised if they just waited out for the bubble to burst by itself at the moment (because it is publicly vastly less blame in their direction) and then pick up the pieces. It's true their reputation would take a hit either way, but it's a matter of choosing the one with less damage (and if anything Chronicles taught, is action does more). With a bit of tuned marketing to the masses (that doesn't work as well on us enfranchised players, but we're actually not the majority), they could actually twist the general public perception if they waited.
The potential of players quitting the game in droves is going to happen when the bubble bursts, regardless of reason. If Wizards chooses to be the one to do it via unlimited prints, they also run the risk of players from Standard leaving the format in droves and that being their main business (and safeguard against the bubble bursting in older formats)... is not something they'll risk to offend the shareholders. Almost every time they risked Standard to a certain major extent, they have been called up by the higher-ups for a meeting and those risks weren't even in the long term (they were mainly design mistakes that would rotate) such as making a non-rotating format as accessible as a rotating one.
Chronicles, released in July 1995. Fallen Empires released in November 1994, and Homelands in October 1995. What did all 3 sets have in common? Massive overprinting that made them completely worthless. It was a mistake of the TIME, not a mistake of the SET. Using Chronicles to justify excessive restrictions on reprint sets is exactly the same argument as "Fallen Empires proved that they can't make an expansion set right- the cards in it were worthless."
They have, over time, learned to use market research to get a MUCH better picture of what they can actually sell. Nowadays, they're far more experienced about what they need to print to satisfy demand, but still have enough value in packs to sell them. They can make new expansions that draft well and still sell well. The assertion that Chronicles is at all relevent anymore is absurd, it assumes Wizards hasn't learned a single thing over the last 21 years about supply and demand. Recent high-value reprints in Standard sets seems to show they ARE capable of hitting that sweet spot. They're gun-shy about it because some voices in the community are all doom and gloom about reprints: "My VALUE! How could you do this, Wizards? I'll QUIT!"
And it seems that Wizards does listen to those voices. Coincidentally, the large resellers are the ones that would lose the most. Not distributors (Wizards primary customers), and definitely not people who just want to play Modern/legacy/Vintage/EDH: cheaper cards are better for them. It's the middlemen (unfortunatelty, this includes LGS, which is a very legitimate concern) and the "investors" who care about the EV of packs.
Here's how much I care about the set: I'm getting a box to throw into a drawer. I figure I can buy singles of the cards I want since most of them are at rare: Wasteland, Sinkhole, and a Top or two. The rest? I have them already. One of the benefits of playing since the Dark and never getting rid of anything. Wizards seems to agree with you: expensive cards and high profits for investors and resellers are important. Getting cards into the hands of people who want them isn't really. I'm not at all against Wizards making money, but I just can't understand why they don't print to demand, make the money themselves, rather than limiting the print run. That particular model makes tons of money, but not for WotC. It makes money for businesses who can crack cases an sell the inflated singles, because as Canada Bill Jones said, "I know it's crooked, but it's the only game in town."
Bolded for emphasis. This is EXACTLY correct, and the point I made in my second post. Chronicles as an argument isn't like talking about markets or warfare from the mid-20th century, it's like talking about them from antiquity! The scale involved, as well as the surrounding situation is SO different that the impact will be minimal. History is a guide, but it is not prophecy. And when people such as sealteamfive insist on yelling "But Chronicles!" over and over without actually bothering to analyze all the context, that proclamation is useless and destructive to the game. The problem is that Wizards listens to these people instead of doing analysis for itself.
As for the rest, again Lakanna has it right. Wizards has a policy that is doing alright for itself and current players, but is awful for anyone interested in eternal play (by raising the barrier to entry, and continually forcing Legacy & Vintage into decline). The only one who truly thrives on this policy that willfully abandons an obvious market is the speculators and singles retailers. And, honestly, the speculators are not contributing to the health of the game, while the retailers can suck up a bit less middle-man profiteering and still thrive on this game.
You state that you THINK the impact of another Chronicles would be minimal. Have you thought through all of the risks associated with it? Given all the conjecture on your part - the game is different, the players are different, the market is different, has very little tangible evidence that things will be different. You have given no effective arguments other than saying things aren't the same as they were 20 years ago. My arguments are based on actual facts of what happened. If you so strongly believe what you are saying, show some actual evidence as opposed to conjecture.
And I'll state again, what's in it for Wizards to make eternal an easy game to play versus standard? If there is no barrier to entry, how many people would bail on standard and just play eternal? How is this good for the people making the game?
Another question - the entire game's economy is set up in such a way that many peoples livelihoods are predicated on how the economy of the game is set up. A major change to that (say by crashing card values by reprinting to the ground as you have proposed) has what side effects? Yes, singles would be cheap. How many other side effects are there? What happens to all of the LGS's? How many simply fail because a major revenue stream (selling singles) is no longer available? How many people quit the game simply because the places they played at are closed? What happens to the price of boosters? As it currently stands there isn't enough money in selling sealed product - the margins just aren't enough to keep the lights on. What percentage of people quit the game over it? does it overtake the number of people joining OR spending more money in sealed product to offset the losses? If people are playing eternal formats, what happens to standard and the number of people actually buying new product?
You speak to me as if I haven't thought any of that through. I've spent a good deal of time on it and quite frankly the risks do not justify it.
Your final statement that retailers can suck up a bit less is just wrong. Having seen the numbers at my LGS, I'd wager that the great majority of LGS's (not CFB or SCG, but all of the little guys) are just barely making ends meet. Destroying a major revenue stream for them could easily put many out of business. If you're in business you know that it takes 400% more effort to attract 1 new client than it does to retain one. Wizards seems to be doing just fine in retaining players and still attracting new ones. Why piss off a (potentially) significant portion of your existing player base? When you start making major changes to the economy of the game it can have a potentially devastating impact.
Let me quantify this by saying that I do not know if any or all of this will come to pass if Wizards did tank secondary market values. But I imagine some of it would. If you take that large of a risk (speaking from Wizards' POV) what is the reward? If I'm the one making that decision, the reward better be massive - and I just don't see that being the case.
/edit The only major data point we have is Chronicles - hence the reason it continues to be referenced. It had a massively negative impact on the game that is still felt today. I don't want Wizards' to make a decision that *COULD* have a similar impact.
Lakanna has fielded most of this already. However, I want to address your statements regarding the impact on LGSes, especially as this is their only revenue stream in some cases.
When Wizards started and established their model, those LGSes were necessary for marketing, distribution, and even product support services. But that was 20 years ago. Nowadays, direct sales is a very big thing in all sorts of industries, and there is no reason why that model couldn't be adopted. Other retailers, like Target, also seem to work out pretty well for Wizards. They have options they didn't have 20 years ago.
The non-rotating formats are clearly facing a supply problem. There is a good argument that speculators (of which many LGSes and not-so-L GSes) are contributing to this, but are not the sole source of the problem. Wizards can either support these formats better, or watch as they wither with time (as has long been occurring with Vintage and, though slower, with Legacy). Choosing to support them has risks and costs, but also is potentially quite useful for increasing sales. This is purely a business question.
However, for the customer, this choice matters quite a bit. Wizards is effectively choosing to support the speculator over the end-user. And given that Wizards makes no money off the speculators (who rarely buy sealed product), it is probably more sound to support the end-users.
But what about the LGSes that only make money off this one product? I'm going to use a point made earlier by someone else: Wizards is not a charity. Wizards exists to make money. And Wizards only obligations ought to be to do that, which involves satisfied customers. It is their choice whether those customers are the end-users (players) or retailers.
But it's actually a false choice anyway, as most LGSes make lots of money off sealed product in any case (drafts and the like), and this won't hurt them too badly. The only ones it hurts are the singles-specialized stores. And if this was their only source of revenue and they go out of business? Tough luck. It's not Wizard's responsibility to ensure a particular retailer has a balanced business. Their only job is to look after their profit and their product.
And I think there is a good argument that the health of the product is better served by letting the speculators and singles-sellers take a bath. The additional product this would move would probably more than compensate the average balanced LGS in the short run anyway.
This is a well reasoned argument. I disagree with some portions of it (most boxes are bought from wholesalers at $72-$80 depending on level) and sell them at pretty easily found $90. 10%-15% margins don't keep the lights on unless you're moving a ton of product. I also have concerns that if, say, some percentage of the LGS's close down that there would be a decline in player base because they simply have no place to play.
I also see risks in the statements you have made. I don't know if they would have a net positive or net negative impact on the game if Wizards did decide to reprint a ton, but my belief is that it would ultimately take away from the game. Again, it's a matter of weighing risks versus rewards. Destroying LGS's who specialize in singles and collectors' values would certainly qualify as a pretty big risk, right? I agree with you that speculators are in general bad for the game and we'd be better off without them - much like counterfeiters.
I guess this is the real crux of the issue. You don't see tanking the secondary market and pushing out LGS's that specialize in singles or collectors as a problem for the game itself. I fall on the other side of that fence for all of the reasons I've laid out before. And ultimately, if Wizards thought they could make more money doing it that way I have no doubt it would happen. Lastly, I believe Wizards has a lot more information on these issues than we do and they have yet to act in the way you see fit. My conjecture on that point is that Wizards has already done this analysis and come to the realization that the rewards do not justify the risks.
I think that while we may not agree on the balance of the analysis, we agree on the analysis itself. I think Wizards is, like many an established institution, a bit timid in adopting policy changes. But we will see, over time, where they fall on this.
Whether the rewards justify the risks is really a moot point; by doing NOTHING, they take no risk at all, and continue to make tons of money. No change, no matter how beneficial to the players, is ever going to be a safer bet than what they are doing at the moment. I believe that this momentum is the same reason the RL continues to exist: there is no risk to them in keeping it, so no matter how much benefit they or the players would gain from breaking it, they choose to do nothing and take 0 risk.
That doesn't mean it's the smart thing to do, or the right thing to do. It's the SAFE thing to do, sure, but it creates a frustrated community. I personally don't trust Wizards to be able to manage the future of their game: their long-term plan for formats seems to be "throw things at the wall and see what sticks." Their continued support of the RL is choking Legacy and Vintage out of existence. The Modern bannings and unbannings with no rhyme or reason just to "shake up the format" made many people afraid to buy in because they were afraid of their deck getting banned out of nowhere.
Wizards seems to be competent at running Standard (Fetch + Battleland manabases notwithstanding) but they don't know what to do with older formats. They are trying and failing to be everything to everyone. MaRo has made the point many times that they try to juggle multiple priorities when doing reprints, and quite honestly, I don't believe that "protect the secondary market" should be one of those priorities. The secondary market is a market: it can adapt and handle itself without Wizards riding herd with their heavy-handed reprint philosophy. If they discount he "protect my value" voices, let the market sort itself out without their "help," and reprint the stuff that they can make money on in whatever quantities they believe they can sell, they make more money and players are able to afford more of the cards they want to play with. The game as a whole grows, which should be theri ultimate goal.
I feel like this is exactly where Wizards has made the most mistakes: it feels like they're trying to wear 10 different hats while trying to convince us it's only one. You can't tell me EMA is not the latest in a long history of over-cautious limited run reprint sets that are more geared toward giving them a fast buck while protecting a secondary market they swear they have no stake in. I mean, sure, you can SAY that $10 packs with $20 EV will just rise to meet EV, but the reality is no different than prerelease hype - if these are printed to demand, the big shots like FoW go for a crazy stupid, expensive amount, then we get to see their impact once they're in the hands of the people, and the market corrects itself. And that's ignoring the fact that $10 boosters with $20 EV remain that way due to scarcity, because let's be honest with ourselves: a printed to demand product is not going to be able to break MSRP no matter whether it has Thoughtseize, Onslaught Fetches, Shocklands, or any other recent example of hotly desired, expensive cards in an unlimited set.
Quite simply, anyone pointing to Chronicles as an example is doing it wrong. The lesson from that set is Wizards will cave to a vocal minority that treats the cards like stocks. The reprinted cards were scarce and in a bubble, not valuable because of necessity for play. Moreover, the same vocal minority can run with reckless abandon in serious gray-area buyouts to artificially raise prices on certain cards (Gaddock Teeg the most recent example), and Wizards will still bow to their shocking behavior over a much larger majority that simply want to play the game and potentially grow the business. How Hasbro has not stepped in on these stupid shenanigans yet and shut it down is beyond me. When I look at a self-regulating CCG like Pokemon, where reprints breed accessibility constantly and no card is ever over $12 and their digital front is basically free and serves as a gateway drug to their paper product, I can't fathom how WotC has made so many boneheaded decisions like these. I can't wrap my head around how WotC basically wants me to go find some third party and pay them $75 for a card made 15 years ago instead of paying them $19.99 directly to include it in a new Duel Deck. They literally allow a secondary market to not only have control over the flow and ebbs of their product, but actually USE it to base their reprint policy off of...that's got to be the dumbest business I've ever heard of, they literally make nothing off the secondary market once the rotation from Standard has occurred.
Lastly, to wrap up my point, I think it's ridiculous to point to any level of intelligence, know-how, or market research WotC may or may not have done. No, they don't know better. Other companies in the CCG realm, especially lately, are proving that all the time. Second, there's no variable - the control has always been the safe bet, and WotC has never deviated one inch from that. Seriously, when was the last time there was a reprint set that actually crossed the line on EV per pack? It's never happened, ever. Sure, there are great buys out there, like M11, where you can find packs still hovering in the $6 or less range and crack quality Modern cards like Lightning Bolt, Mana Leak, the Titans, Baneslayer, Leylines, etc., but more often than not, taking a chance on any given pack is going to yield far less than you paid for it. You're never getting your money's worth, that's why it's always a sucker's bet. We've never had a set where the power level was on par with the price tag. As safe as WotC plays it, we never will. So everything said here is a lot of people making a lot of conjecture based on an Economics 101 course they took 10 years ago, with no proof or practical application to back it up.
I feel like this is exactly where Wizards has made the most mistakes: it feels like they're trying to wear 10 different hats while trying to convince us it's only one. You can't tell me EMA is not the latest in a long history of over-cautious limited run reprint sets that are more geared toward giving them a fast buck while protecting a secondary market they swear they have no stake in. I mean, sure, you can SAY that $10 packs with $20 EV will just rise to meet EV, but the reality is no different than prerelease hype - if these are printed to demand, the big shots like FoW go for a crazy stupid, expensive amount, then we get to see their impact once they're in the hands of the people, and the market corrects itself. And that's ignoring the fact that $10 boosters with $20 EV remain that way due to scarcity, because let's be honest with ourselves: a printed to demand product is not going to be able to break MSRP no matter whether it has Thoughtseize, Onslaught Fetches, Shocklands, or any other recent example of hotly desired, expensive cards in an unlimited set.
Quite simply, anyone pointing to Chronicles as an example is doing it wrong. The lesson from that set is Wizards will cave to a vocal minority that treats the cards like stocks. The reprinted cards were scarce and in a bubble, not valuable because of necessity for play. Moreover, the same vocal minority can run with reckless abandon in serious gray-area buyouts to artificially raise prices on certain cards (Gaddock Teeg the most recent example), and Wizards will still bow to their shocking behavior over a much larger majority that simply want to play the game and potentially grow the business. How Hasbro has not stepped in on these stupid shenanigans yet and shut it down is beyond me. When I look at a self-regulating CCG like Pokemon, where reprints breed accessibility constantly and no card is ever over $12 and their digital front is basically free and serves as a gateway drug to their paper product, I can't fathom how WotC has made so many boneheaded decisions like these. I can't wrap my head around how WotC basically wants me to go find some third party and pay them $75 for a card made 15 years ago instead of paying them $19.99 directly to include it in a new Duel Deck. They literally allow a secondary market to not only have control over the flow and ebbs of their product, but actually USE it to base their reprint policy off of...that's got to be the dumbest business I've ever heard of, they literally make nothing off the secondary market once the rotation from Standard has occurred.
Lastly, to wrap up my point, I think it's ridiculous to point to any level of intelligence, know-how, or market research WotC may or may not have done. No, they don't know better. Other companies in the CCG realm, especially lately, are proving that all the time. Second, there's no variable - the control has always been the safe bet, and WotC has never deviated one inch from that. Seriously, when was the last time there was a reprint set that actually crossed the line on EV per pack? It's never happened, ever. Sure, there are great buys out there, like M11, where you can find packs still hovering in the $6 or less range and crack quality Modern cards like Lightning Bolt, Mana Leak, the Titans, Baneslayer, Leylines, etc., but more often than not, taking a chance on any given pack is going to yield far less than you paid for it. You're never getting your money's worth, that's why it's always a sucker's bet. We've never had a set where the power level was on par with the price tag. As safe as WotC plays it, we never will. So everything said here is a lot of people making a lot of conjecture based on an Economics 101 course they took 10 years ago, with no proof or practical application to back it up.
I hate to point this out, but a Secondary Market and a format they have no (or very little) stake in is technically a competitor. Except since it's an "internal competitor", they can effectively snuff it out (Which they're technically doing it with the over-cautious reprints to make quick money of expectations that won't be met).
It's a nice scenario to imagine the Masters Series being printed to demand, prices regulate themselves and the price barriers to Eternal Formats lower themselves, while WotC makes a lot of profits out of it. But then after all that profit is made, prices have stabilized... then what happens? Do we just quietly decide to play Standard events and pump more money into the game? Absolutely not. You'll be sure in due time the forums will be nothing except for "Majority of GPs and PTs should be Modern/Legacy* instead of Standard events instead", because now we end up with an actual majority of players invested into an Eternal Format and are unwilling to pay for a Rotating Format whose power level is weaker than those in Eternal.
*Let's just pretend the RL was abolished and reprinted along with it - it's all hypothetical anyway.
This is actually the main reason why they refuse to print to demand - they know that a product printed to demand will eventually stabilize and result it as the most-played format. Since the format in question are considered competitors to Standard: the Gathering, where they make most of their money from... they don't actually assist those competitors. At this point of time, I don't really think it's merely listening to speculators' exact words - they know there's an eager bunch of people who can't wait to forfeit long-term payments via Standard because the Speculators have proved it so (even at insane prices people are still affording those to avoid the Standard menace), so they aren't exactly thrilled in supporting these people.
So yes... all this talk about "the large majority wanting to play the game" is a competitor to them... because the game "the majority" wants to play is not the game they want "the majority" to be playing.
My issue with the "Chronicles" argument is that we haven't come close to that level, not even half as close, and I'm sure we never will and that Wizards is being so cautious, which has been rather frustrating as EMA is the third try at trying to do right by it and they still haven't gotten it down yet. With MM1 it was the first try so testing the waters with a limited print run is understandable, but the cards in it were superb. MM2 on the other hand had far less great reprints, but its print run was about spot on, although if the set hadn't been so bad that print run may not have sufficed. Now we have EMA and while it is better than MM2 in the reprint sense, we have a bunch of cards being upshifted in rarity "for limited" and even then it doesn't make any sense in a lot of cases, but the biggest strike is how limited this is, probably around MM1 levels, which is a huge step backwards. While the cards were better than MM2, a lot of them leave a sour taste in your mouth because they will be harder to get, so you may be able to look at this set being no better than MM2 overall.
The most frustrating thing is how they can't seem to hit the target, or choose not to, by going backwards in some ways with EMA that it becomes confusing and irritating. Most are not asking for Chronicle levels of reprints, but I can't see why we haven't gotten a proper level that most can be happy with. If EMA didn't have the limited print run and odd card choices, combined with odd rarities, and if the boosters weren't $10 as $7 seemed the most appropriate then many would be contented with this, rather than befuddled and frustrated.
Frankly, this doesn't give me high hopes for MM3 or an EMA2.
My issue with the "Chronicles" argument is that we haven't come close to that level and I'm sure we never will and that Wizards is being so cautious, which has been rather frustrating as EMA is the third try at trying to do right by it and they still haven't gotten it down yet. With MM1 it was the first try so testing the waters with a limited print run is understandable, but the cards in it were superb. MM2 on the other hand had far less great reprints, but its print run was about spot on, although if the set hadn't been so bad that print run may not have sufficed. Now we have EMA and while it is better than MM2 in the reprint sense, we have a bunch of cards being upshifted in rarity "for limited" and even then it doesn't make any sense in a lot of cases, but the biggest strike is how limited this is, probably around MM1 levels, which is a huge step backwards. While the cards were better than MM2, a lot of them leave a sour taste in your mouth because they will be harder to get, so you may be able to look at this set being no better than MM2 overall.
The most frustrating thing is how they can't seem to hit the target, or choose not to, by going backwards in some ways with EMA that it becomes confusing and irritating. Most are not asking for Chronicle levels of reprints, but I can't see why we haven't gotten a proper level that most can be happy with. If EMA didn't have the limited print run and odd card choices, combined with odd rarities, and if the boosters weren't $10 as $7 seemed the most appropriate then many would be contented with this, rather than befuddled and frustrated.
Frankly, this doesn't give me high hopes for MM3 or an EMA2.
While I think we can safely say we are tilted on the opposite sides of the fence when it comes to the general picture, I do agree wholeheartedly on the "Wizards is way too cautious" strategy and am annoyed by parties of both sides using Chronicles as a reason (be it "Reprint like Chronicles" or "A bit more print means Chronicles disaster", they both annoy me.)
What I'm more "edgy" about are those who raise the term "Print to Demand", which I don't actually agree with when I take into account the differences in "demand" and considering WotC has shareholders to answer to. My main point is that WotC will still safeguard its interest (Standard) first and foremost. The implication comes when people assume "Print to Demand" as "Standard Print Run"... if anything the Secondary Market demonstrates, the demand for older cards is actually higher than for Standard cards, which means a "Print to Demand" effectively means "Print more than Standard Print Runs". Even if we put logistics aside, if I was depending on Standard as my main consistent revenue of income, that idea is terrible.
It's a going to sound a bit hypocritical (especially with what I say), but since WotC sees Standard Print Runs as the "Demand Cap" for products they care about, to print a nonstandard product at a level higher than that is practically demolishing Standard quite badly and technically a "Chronicles-Level" disaster to them (not to us though).
Even if we drop the whole "Print to Demand Thing" and just "Print at Standard Levels", WotC is so cautious that a product running at the same speed as a Standard Set will inevitably take business away from the Standard Set and well, they're still not completely wrong here, although I'll also argue here that by having a higher price tag, it would help mitigate this scenario they're worried about, although since I don't have numbers, I'm doing no convincing to anyone in a suit making decisions.
But what really annoys me (and where we agree) is that they pushed the cautiousness way too far as well. I doubt MM2 was anywhere near half a Standard Print Run, let alone a full run. Like you, I excused MM1 as a test run, but while MM2 did really increase the print run, they went ahead and increased the price as well, effectively curbing the positive steps they took by increasing the print run. Had they retained the MSRP of 7 and simply increased the print run, perhaps the Lottery-centric nature of the set would be a lot more forgivable on account that essentially MM2 is a MM1 replacing rares with filler "additional stock" to help bring down the price of the Mythics in particular, but not entirely crash all the MM1 rares with it (because the first MM1 did have its own repercussions of attracting too much new demand instead). In fact, if they went the other way, by lowering the price at the cost of the diluting the rare-quality pool, people would be more willing to draft the set like they wanted the set to perform, because well, the Mythics aren't going to open themselves to lower their prices, might as well take a gamble by drafting if each pack costs less.
Also like you, I don't have much expectations for EMA, let alone MM3/EMA2. They retained the price this time round and certainly had the set designed slightly better then MM2, but if the print run isn't increased, then it is going to be really no different from MM2 eventually.
I can't wrap my head around how WotC basically wants me to go find some third party and pay them $75 for a card made 15 years ago instead of paying them $19.99 directly to include it in a new Duel Deck. They literally allow a secondary market to not only have control over the flow and ebbs of their product, but actually USE it to base their reprint policy off of...that's got to be the dumbest business I've ever heard of, they literally make nothing off the secondary market once the rotation from Standard has occurred.
Yep this exact statement is what baffles me. And yes I know all the reasons why and why not and it STILL puzzles me.
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Playing since 1994: Currently MAGS (HomeBrew),Standard & Pauper (Pioneer and Modern are degenerate trash formats)
STOP using "dude/bro" as a pejorative or insult. Grow up.
Margaret Thatcher: “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”
Benjamin Franklin: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Martin Luther King Jr.: "I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."
I can't wrap my head around how WotC basically wants me to go find some third party and pay them $75 for a card made 15 years ago instead of paying them $19.99 directly to include it in a new Duel Deck. They literally allow a secondary market to not only have control over the flow and ebbs of their product, but actually USE it to base their reprint policy off of...that's got to be the dumbest business I've ever heard of, they literally make nothing off the secondary market once the rotation from Standard has occurred.
Yep this exact statement is what baffles me. And yes I know all the reasons why and why not and it STILL puzzles me.
It's because they need the secondary market to a) buy the product and b) run the tournaments I don't like it either but if you were to flood the market with reprints of expensive cards then a store's value sinks and they don't buy as much stock
I can't wrap my head around how WotC basically wants me to go find some third party and pay them $75 for a card made 15 years ago instead of paying them $19.99 directly to include it in a new Duel Deck. They literally allow a secondary market to not only have control over the flow and ebbs of their product, but actually USE it to base their reprint policy off of...that's got to be the dumbest business I've ever heard of, they literally make nothing off the secondary market once the rotation from Standard has occurred.
Yep this exact statement is what baffles me. And yes I know all the reasons why and why not and it STILL puzzles me.
It's because they need the secondary market to a) buy the product and b) run the tournaments I don't like it either but if you were to flood the market with reprints of expensive cards then a store's value sinks and they don't buy as much stock
Not necessarily. They could do it themselves if they so desired, but I don't think they want to take on the headache of running tournaments, hiring staff/insuring employees for it and all the associated expenses and implications of such. Its just easier for someone else to do it. If they did you just buy your packs/product from mass market retailers (Wal-Mart, Target, etc.) at a set MSRP. Individuals still crack packs and sell singles secondary market, Wizards tracks prices of certain cards (which is obvious what they do now with EMA) and pumps out these staples at prices where they make the profit instead of the "middleman". To discourage LGS and speculators there could be a cap on packs bought or so many per day. Or one box per customer per set, per store. It could be done. YES it would be a colossal headache though.
I'm not advocating a print them all until the ink runs out approach. But there needs to be MORE product hitting the shelves. I wouldn't mind picking up a set of Heritage Druid but when pre-sale prices are maybe a dollar less per card or at existing stock, that isn't helping anyone but speculators and LGS at the expense of the player. Reprints need to lower pricing and get it into players hands, not sit on the shelf of some speculator. Okay, I'm sure there are holes in my logic.
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Playing since 1994: Currently MAGS (HomeBrew),Standard & Pauper (Pioneer and Modern are degenerate trash formats)
STOP using "dude/bro" as a pejorative or insult. Grow up.
Margaret Thatcher: “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”
Benjamin Franklin: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Martin Luther King Jr.: "I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."
As for Chronicles, at the time many of the cards printed were highly sought after. Believe it or not the Elder Dragon Legends were $50 cards prior to their reprint. Times have changed dramatically since then in terms of what people look for in the game. It was the equivalent of taking Modern Masters 1, 2, and EMA all combined into 1 set and then literally crashing the value of all the chase cards.
They were very very far from reprinting all the chase cards in Chronicles. Elder dragons were expensive, yes, but I feel it was more because of their coolness and scarcity. I never saw anyone play a single elder dragon in a competitive deck in those times. The same applies to many other cards in Chronicles: expensive only because of extreme scarcity. Here are just a few chase cards from those times that weren't reprinted in Chronicles: P9, duals, Moat, Nether Void, Library of Alexandria, Juzam Djinn, The Abyss etc. P9 and duals are kind of irrelevant since as far as I can remember, core sets weren't up for reprinting in Chronicles anyway, but chase cards they were.
Let me preface this by saying that I never said they reprinted all of the chase cards. Just many of them.
Competitive scene? I don't know. There really wasn't a competitive scene where I played back then. Just a ton of casuals. Just of the top of my head, almost all of the multi colored legends were sought after back then, Feldon's Cane,City Of Brass was awesome, Ernham Djinn was chase, and Recall and the tron lands. Not every card was chase.. I mean it had Abu Jafar in it! Back then Moat and Nether Void weren't that great. Agreed on Library of Alexandria, Juzam Djinn, and one you missed - Guardian Beast. No, they didn't reprint every chase card, but it did have a ton. Also, the game was far different back then. The competitive scene in '95 hadn't really taken hold in a lot of places. Just about everyone was playing some jank multiplayer style deck and many many commons and umcommons made it into peoples decks back then.
I can't wrap my head around how WotC basically wants me to go find some third party and pay them $75 for a card made 15 years ago instead of paying them $19.99 directly to include it in a new Duel Deck. They literally allow a secondary market to not only have control over the flow and ebbs of their product, but actually USE it to base their reprint policy off of...that's got to be the dumbest business I've ever heard of, they literally make nothing off the secondary market once the rotation from Standard has occurred.
Yep this exact statement is what baffles me. And yes I know all the reasons why and why not and it STILL puzzles me.
It's because they need the secondary market to a) buy the product and b) run the tournaments I don't like it either but if you were to flood the market with reprints of expensive cards then a store's value sinks and they don't buy as much stock
Tell that to Troll and Toad, for example...or anyone that invests in singles stock for CCG's that aren't magic. Almost every other one prints/reprints to demand, and if it was all doom and gloom like you're saying (again, back to my point, no proof as it has never been done by WotC before), then these other CCG's would be so unprofitable it wouldn't make sense to carry their product.
Whether the rewards justify the risks is really a moot point; by doing NOTHING, they take no risk at all, and continue to make tons of money. No change, no matter how beneficial to the players, is ever going to be a safer bet than what they are doing at the moment. I believe that this momentum is the same reason the RL continues to exist: there is no risk to them in keeping it, so no matter how much benefit they or the players would gain from breaking it, they choose to do nothing and take 0 risk.
That doesn't mean it's the smart thing to do, or the right thing to do. It's the SAFE thing to do, sure, but it creates a frustrated community. I personally don't trust Wizards to be able to manage the future of their game: their long-term plan for formats seems to be "throw things at the wall and see what sticks." Their continued support of the RL is choking Legacy and Vintage out of existence. The Modern bannings and unbannings with no rhyme or reason just to "shake up the format" made many people afraid to buy in because they were afraid of their deck getting banned out of nowhere.
Wizards seems to be competent at running Standard (Fetch + Battleland manabases notwithstanding) but they don't know what to do with older formats. They are trying and failing to be everything to everyone. MaRo has made the point many times that they try to juggle multiple priorities when doing reprints, and quite honestly, I don't believe that "protect the secondary market" should be one of those priorities. The secondary market is a market: it can adapt and handle itself without Wizards riding herd with their heavy-handed reprint philosophy. If they discount he "protect my value" voices, let the market sort itself out without their "help," and reprint the stuff that they can make money on in whatever quantities they believe they can sell, they make more money and players are able to afford more of the cards they want to play with. The game as a whole grows, which should be theri ultimate goal.
Where to begin...
First off on the concept of risk - the point is not moot. So lets walk through a couple of examples why... First - you say that doing nothing incurs zero risk. I disagree. By doing absolutely nothing they aggravate a small but growing segment of their player base that wants eternal formats to be cheap to enter. Second - I say that Wizards' is doing something. Several somethings actually. You've listed several of them yourselves. The MM series, EMA, reprinting fetches and the like. In doing so, Wizards' has already incurred risk of backlash from entrenched players (collectors and LGS's with those singles). So they did things like raise the MSRP and make the print run small reduce the risk of said backlash. Wizards has already proven that they are willing to take risks. You just don't see them going far enough.
As for the frustrated community, to use the fun phrase, a vocal minority of players wants to see them be cheap and accessible.
I think that it's absolutely shocking that you can say you don't trust Wizards' to manage the product they've successfully managed for over 20 years. Their long term plan for formats is the same as it has been for at least 5 years - Standard and Limited is where it's at. Modern will be supported to some extent, but not to the point where it interferes with Standard or Limited. Legacy and Vintage never will due to the RL. You've said yourself that they manage standard and limited well. Sure lines up with their long term plans for the company, doesn't it?
As for being everything to everyone - you have your opinion on how Wizards' should manage it. I have mine. I think they're doing a bang up job of balancing the overwhelming majority of their player base. Your belief on what Wizards' focuses on is worth just about as my belief. And finally - we go back to the risk versus reward discussion. By ultimately cutting out collectors and LGS's with money tied up in singles, they take on a big risk along with lost profits. You have yet to show any kind of reward to offset alienating a significant portion of those who contribute to the economy of the game.
Yatsufasa has already made an elegant point about what what Wizards' would have to do an an encore after crashing card prices. None of that sounds good for the long term health of the game. As for the game growing, it has continued to grow year over year, setting record numbers of players at events and profit margins for Hasbro. Sounds to me like their ultimate goal is already happening without reprinting to the ground.
Expansion of the playerbase cannot happen forever though. There is a finite number out there whether they have reached that or not, we don't know. If I had to wager a guess, I'd say they are getting very close to saturation.
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Playing since 1994: Currently MAGS (HomeBrew),Standard & Pauper (Pioneer and Modern are degenerate trash formats)
STOP using "dude/bro" as a pejorative or insult. Grow up.
Margaret Thatcher: “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”
Benjamin Franklin: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Martin Luther King Jr.: "I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."
Expansion of the playerbase cannot happen forever though. There is a finite number out there whether they have reached that or not, we don't know. If I had to wager a guess, I'd say they are getting very close to saturation.
An estimated 15 million players and almost 7 billion worldwide? With about 1.2 billion of them living in developed countries? about 1% of them? Sorry, I've got to disagree here. Given that the game is 20 years old you have people who were playing the game as teenagers teaching their children. Wizards could easily have another 40-50 years of growth just by parents teaching their offspring. (unlikely that this would offset those leaving the game, but it does add future players with zero advertising)
Expansion of the playerbase cannot happen forever though. There is a finite number out there whether they have reached that or not, we don't know. If I had to wager a guess, I'd say they are getting very close to saturation.
An estimated 15 million players and almost 7 billion worldwide? With about 1.2 billion of them living in developed countries? about 1% of them? Sorry, I've got to disagree here. Given that the game is 20 years old you have people who were playing the game as teenagers teaching their children. Wizards could easily have another 40-50 years of growth just by parents teaching their offspring. (unlikely that this would offset those leaving the game, but it does add future players with zero advertising)
I think you answered part of the question in your response. There are 6 billion in underdeveloped countries struggling to stay alive, a card game is the last thing on their mind. On top of that I don't have the statistics but this is a male dominated game. If I had to guess I'd say between 90-95 percent of players worldwide are male. There goes another 1 billion out of 1.2 billion that show interest. That is no knock against females. Right now this is a male dominated "sport". Baby Boomers aren't going to pick this game up. Gen X had to jump on the train years ago (Like I did). Gen Y and Millenials have a lot more invested in e-media/games/etc and they are the target market. I'd say growth for MTGO has lots of room. For paper Magic I'd be guessing it is going to reach a saturation point. Growth will slow, its inevitable. What Wizards does now CAN have an effect on what may happen another 20 years from now. Guess we will see what shakes out. I hope they make the correct decisions. I'd like to teach the game in paper to my GRANDCHILDREN!!!
Playing since 1994: Currently MAGS (HomeBrew),Standard & Pauper (Pioneer and Modern are degenerate trash formats)
STOP using "dude/bro" as a pejorative or insult. Grow up.
Margaret Thatcher: “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”
Benjamin Franklin: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Martin Luther King Jr.: "I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."
Expansion of the playerbase cannot happen forever though. There is a finite number out there whether they have reached that or not, we don't know. If I had to wager a guess, I'd say they are getting very close to saturation.
An estimated 15 million players and almost 7 billion worldwide? With about 1.2 billion of them living in developed countries? about 1% of them? Sorry, I've got to disagree here. Given that the game is 20 years old you have people who were playing the game as teenagers teaching their children. Wizards could easily have another 40-50 years of growth just by parents teaching their offspring. (unlikely that this would offset those leaving the game, but it does add future players with zero advertising)
I think you answered part of the question in your response. There are 6 billion in underdeveloped countries struggling to stay alive, a card game is the last thing on their mind. On top of that I don't have the statistics but this is a male dominated game. If I had to guess I'd say between 90-95 percent of players worldwide are male. There goes another 1 billion out of 1.2 billion that show interest. That is no knock against females. Right now this is a male dominated "sport". Baby Boomers aren't going to pick this game up. Gen X had to jump on the train years ago (Like I did). Gen Y and Millenials have a lot more invested in e-media/games/etc and they are the target market. I'd say growth for MTGO has lots of room. For paper Magic I'd be guessing it is going to reach a saturation point. Growth will slow, its inevitable. What Wizards does now CAN have an effect on what may happen another 20 years from now. Guess we will see what shakes out. I hope they make the correct decisions. I'd like to teach the game in paper to my GRANDCHILDREN!!!
Sorry - how did you go from 1 billion out of 1.2 billion gone? I agree that men dominate the sport, but that would cut it in half from 1.2 billion to 600 million by eliminating women. Even if you take half again for all men under the age of 40 but at least 5 or 6 and able to play, that still leaves a target demographic of 300 million people and only 15 million playing. That is only 5%. Still plenty of room for growth. I agree that it will eventually reach a saturation point, but I believe that point is so far off in the distance it isn't worth considering right now. As they branch out into other areas, they can easily add to their growth numbers. The upcoming movie will at least raise awareness to many who didn't even know the game existed.
I really shouldn't have responded anyways. the numbers we are throwing around are pure speculation on both of our parts.
/Edit - I can't wait to teach the game to my two boys! They're only 2 and a half and 1, so I've got a few years to go. But I'm hoping my wife and I have 1 more so that we can start doing mini sealed tournaments in four man pods! Ultimately I too hope my grandchildren want to play as well and I can have a family drafting night in about 40 years
MSRP though wouldn't rise so much if the print run was higher and at levels not resembling MM1. If these were available at places like Wal-Mart and Target, and at a level of printing that isn't so little the print run couldn't get on a roller coaster, the MSRP wouldn't be an issue. The price has to do with how limited it is combined with what it is inside.
Yes, but if Wizards made this a high print run product they would completely destroy the secondary market. This would have two particularly bad and interrelated effects: first, it would destroy the value of collections--that goes for typical players who have spent thousands of dollars building their collections just as much as it does StarCityGames, and second--as a consequence--it would destroy one of the underpinning tenets of faith that drives this game--your game pieces are investments that are going to retain (and probably gain) value over time. If you're Wizards and you completely destroy or even substantially damage the secondary market, you send the message that you don't care if players' investments are entirely worthless; this disincentivizes players to spend money on the game, and the upshot is that Wizards makes less money. When Wizards makes less money, they can't spend that money developing the game, and the game suffers.
The fact of the matter is that this set has an MSRP that is commensurate with the EV of this set. If you want to possibly open a Karakas (a card that hasn't been printed in a non-promo format in 22 years) or a Mana Crypt (20-21 year), you should expect to have to pay for it.
Such Doom and Gloom! "My collection will be worthless!!!" Only, recent reprints have proven that to be false. Collections take a hit, sure, but the original printings ALWAYS maintain some value, and it seems that they always stay higher in price than the reprints. Almost like they have some value as a collectible. Your game pieces are cardboard. If you bought into them thinking of them as investments, you made a mistake. If you bought into them AFTER the Official Reprint Policy spelled out, in no uncertain terms, that anything not on the Reserve List was fair game for a reprint, and still expect Wizards to act to preserve the value of your cardboard, then you made a mistake and are trying to make other people pay for it instead of admitting it.
You can check my signature for what I think about "investing" in game pieces. And WHY is it so important that "you should expect to have to pay for it?" I don't understand the train of thought that says that it's up to WotC to limit copies of cards for their game so that people who aren't even buying those cards from WotC can maintain value. Wizards should be concerned with selling packs, not making money for SCG, CFB, Lakanna, or Mogg Flunky. Their focus should be on growing the game, not on stifling it so that you and I can claim that we have x thousands of dollars worth of cards. (I don't know about you, but I don't plan on ever selling my collection- so what it's "worth" to me is entirely play value, and that DROPS when I have nobody to play against. Like when people who haven't been playing for 20 years can't afford the buy-in.)
The second part - The comparison is absolutely valid. Yes the distribution of players is different, but I argue that there are more collectors now than there ever were in the game. Now there is history and lore behind the cards. As for the the number of people that would up and leave over an unlimited print run is a pittance? That is pure supposition. I say it will destroy the game. The difference between our two positions? History. It nearly happened once before. Feel free to disagree with me as is your right, but history is on my side and Wizards is not willing to put that big of a risk on the table. I applaud that decision since I want this game to be around another 20 years.
All of the people who left the game because Thoughtseize lost a ton of value, because Shocks fell to a quarter of their value when they were reprinted, because Fetchlands dropped when they were reprinted? That's right: not enough to change the overwhelming approval of those reprints. Compared to how many players, both new and old, were ECSTATIC to be able to get those cards, the people who "left the game" because their high-dollar cards took a nosedive weren't relevant. Why do you believe that any other set of reprints would have a different effect? Chronicles was 20 years ago, was MASSIVELY overprinted (imagine they printed Conspiracy, but with 3x the print run. That's how much they overshot it,) and taught them valuable lessons, which is why they do market research now. Chronicles could only happen now if several people were explicitly doing the exact opposite of their job in predicting what the demand will be, and it's time to stop saying "But Chronicles" when Chronicles isn't even a possibility anymore.
The argument that Magic cards aren't investments is simply not true. By the mere fact that there is a secondary market means that it is an investment. Just because you don't want to call it such doesn't make it any less real. And, the reason that it is an investment is what makes the game strong and allows for stores and tournaments which have grown the game. You cannot compare Magic to regular game pieces because they are not the same. There is no secondary market for Monopoly pieces or Risk pieces and the pieces are the same in every box. Magic is based on a collection of cards and the variety has created a vibrant secondary market. Whining about the costs and stating that they are not investments flies in the face of the evidence. As another example, comics and baseball cards are colored pieces of paper but they have been collectible for a long time. No one argues that Action #1 is a piece of paper and not worth anything because it was produced for short term consumption without any thought of future value. Similarly, if you buy a lotus for $1000, you expect it to be worth something. You have put your money into it and it is an investment. Whether it pays off or not is the risk you take with any investment.
In terms of this set, Wizards does not want to anger anyone (even the people who left due to the reprinting of Thoughseize, which I'm not sure is true) and that is why they took a conservative approach to this set. In my view, the problem is that Wizards did not reprint old cards which have not been foil or reframed and that they relied too much on newer cards. I also believe that Wizards limited the reprints and print run to see what impact it would have on the secondary market. I do not believe they saw MM2 as failure because they did almost the exact same thing with EMA (I do think MM2 was not as good a product as MM1 and that is shown by the availability of the product at MSRP at many stores). In closing, cards cost money and Wizards wanted the value to equate to the higher MSRP, but I do think it will dampen demand for the product and the packs will eventually sell for MSRP.
Expansion of the playerbase cannot happen forever though. There is a finite number out there whether they have reached that or not, we don't know. If I had to wager a guess, I'd say they are getting very close to saturation.
An estimated 15 million players and almost 7 billion worldwide? With about 1.2 billion of them living in developed countries? about 1% of them? Sorry, I've got to disagree here. Given that the game is 20 years old you have people who were playing the game as teenagers teaching their children. Wizards could easily have another 40-50 years of growth just by parents teaching their offspring. (unlikely that this would offset those leaving the game, but it does add future players with zero advertising)
I think you answered part of the question in your response. There are 6 billion in underdeveloped countries struggling to stay alive, a card game is the last thing on their mind. On top of that I don't have the statistics but this is a male dominated game. If I had to guess I'd say between 90-95 percent of players worldwide are male. There goes another 1 billion out of 1.2 billion that show interest. That is no knock against females. Right now this is a male dominated "sport". Baby Boomers aren't going to pick this game up. Gen X had to jump on the train years ago (Like I did). Gen Y and Millenials have a lot more invested in e-media/games/etc and they are the target market. I'd say growth for MTGO has lots of room. For paper Magic I'd be guessing it is going to reach a saturation point. Growth will slow, its inevitable. What Wizards does now CAN have an effect on what may happen another 20 years from now. Guess we will see what shakes out. I hope they make the correct decisions. I'd like to teach the game in paper to my GRANDCHILDREN!!!
Sorry - how did you go from 1 billion out of 1.2 billion gone? I agree that men dominate the sport, but that would cut it in half from 1.2 billion to 600 million by eliminating women. Even if you take half again for all men under the age of 40 but at least 5 or 6 and able to play, that still leaves a target demographic of 300 million people and only 15 million playing. That is only 5%. Still plenty of room for growth. I agree that it will eventually reach a saturation point, but I believe that point is so far off in the distance it isn't worth considering right now. As they branch out into other areas, they can easily add to their growth numbers. The upcoming movie will at least raise awareness to many who didn't even know the game existed.
I really shouldn't have responded anyways. the numbers we are throwing around are pure speculation on both of our parts.
/Edit - I can't wait to teach the game to my two boys! They're only 2 and a half and 1, so I've got a few years to go. But I'm hoping my wife and I have 1 more so that we can start doing mini sealed tournaments in four man pods! Ultimately I too hope my grandchildren want to play as well and I can have a family drafting night in about 40 years
Oops, sorry my numbers were off. And yes we are speculating on these numbers, but we aren't on the inside so its all we can do. I got my son started just buying some cards for him when he was about 7 years old. We took it slow and I didn't really want to push the game on him. He took a little time and warmed up to it and now we have a nice father/son game connection. Some advice if you indulge me. Offer it up to your children and be there and supportive but don't push the game on them. Let them come to it, they may or may not. If they see you having fun with it and SHOW them that it is indeed fun, they will come around. I'd love to see the game in paper still around in 40 years myself. I hope it has the stamina to do so. Who knows I may see that Black Lotus reprint by that time. "Yep your grandpappy waited 60 years for Wizards to reprint Black Lotus as I missed it when it first came out."
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Oops, sorry my numbers were off. And yes we are speculating on these numbers, but we aren't on the inside so its all we can do. I got my son started just buying some cards for him when he was about 7 years old. We took it slow and I didn't really want to push the game on him. He took a little time and warmed up to it and now we have a nice father/son game connection. Some advice if you indulge me. Offer it up to your children and be there and supportive but don't push the game on them. Let them come to it, they may or may not. If they see you having fun with it and SHOW them that it is indeed fun, they will come around. I'd love to see the game in paper still around in 40 years myself. I hope it has the stamina to do so. Who knows I may see that Black Lotus reprint by that time. "Yep your grandpappy waited 60 years for Wizards to reprint Black Lotus as I missed it when it first came out."
I will absolutely take your advice. I want them to enjoy the game... not have it pushed on them. My hope is that they'll pick it up quickly like I did and run with it, but that may not be the case. We'll start slow. Did you take your kids to any events? I have some concerns about the "quality" of those playing in FNM. I certainly dont want them to be exposed to the jackassery the game brings out in some people until they have a better understanding of human nature. Maybe sealed? Certainly not draft.. a little standard action?
Oops, sorry my numbers were off. And yes we are speculating on these numbers, but we aren't on the inside so its all we can do. I got my son started just buying some cards for him when he was about 7 years old. We took it slow and I didn't really want to push the game on him. He took a little time and warmed up to it and now we have a nice father/son game connection. Some advice if you indulge me. Offer it up to your children and be there and supportive but don't push the game on them. Let them come to it, they may or may not. If they see you having fun with it and SHOW them that it is indeed fun, they will come around. I'd love to see the game in paper still around in 40 years myself. I hope it has the stamina to do so. Who knows I may see that Black Lotus reprint by that time. "Yep your grandpappy waited 60 years for Wizards to reprint Black Lotus as I missed it when it first came out."
I will absolutely take your advice. I want them to enjoy the game... not have it pushed on them. My hope is that they'll pick it up quickly like I did and run with it, but that may not be the case. We'll start slow. Did you take your kids to any events? I have some concerns about the "quality" of those playing in FNM. I certainly dont want them to be exposed to the jackassery the game brings out in some people until they have a better understanding of human nature. Maybe sealed? Certainly not draft.. a little standard action?
My dream is to play 2HG with my daughter against the guy who taught me how to play and his daughter (who is four days younger than mine). Maybe in ten years.
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I really cant imagine that the print run numbers of Chronicles was the problem of it.
Id say it simply was that they only included crappy cards (i mean sure, Elder Dragons are cool and such, but cmon, that was like the beginning of magic with hardly any "serious" tournament structure and way less cards overall).
They are much more concernt to make sure stuff is limited and stays limited.
They really dont want to reprint all the stuff in one big swoop, it would sell super well, but they have to keep doing that over and over and that cannot work, just like in any other set, they cant put too much value in it. For reprint sets the 2ndary market is something WotC clearly has an eye on, even if they dont want to admit and they "shouldnt" do it, but they still do ... (outside of some pretty rare occasions)
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As a collector i am totally cool with super rare "reprints" of promo cards, just like the judge reward cards. These are the "value" in my eye, as they are special and highly limited, something that a regular reprint wont ever be.
So for a collector THAT promo stuff might be the real deal, not the cards that the usual player "requires" to play constructed.
Maybe WotC could use some form of "bonus points" system that you get buying stuff and playing the game and then use these points to get special Promo packs that actually contain such special promo cards. That could be a nice way to keep players interested in all kinds of product (as all of them will give points) and keep them playing active (as that gives also points) ; it would even give all these planeswalker points a MUCH MUCH needed meaning.
But maybe thats just my wishful thinking ...
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This is a well reasoned argument. I disagree with some portions of it (most boxes are bought from wholesalers at $72-$80 depending on level) and sell them at pretty easily found $90. 10%-15% margins don't keep the lights on unless you're moving a ton of product. I also have concerns that if, say, some percentage of the LGS's close down that there would be a decline in player base because they simply have no place to play.
I also see risks in the statements you have made. I don't know if they would have a net positive or net negative impact on the game if Wizards did decide to reprint a ton, but my belief is that it would ultimately take away from the game. Again, it's a matter of weighing risks versus rewards. Destroying LGS's who specialize in singles and collectors' values would certainly qualify as a pretty big risk, right? I agree with you that speculators are in general bad for the game and we'd be better off without them - much like counterfeiters.
I guess this is the real crux of the issue. You don't see tanking the secondary market and pushing out LGS's that specialize in singles or collectors as a problem for the game itself. I fall on the other side of that fence for all of the reasons I've laid out before. And ultimately, if Wizards thought they could make more money doing it that way I have no doubt it would happen. Lastly, I believe Wizards has a lot more information on these issues than we do and they have yet to act in the way you see fit. My conjecture on that point is that Wizards has already done this analysis and come to the realization that the rewards do not justify the risks.
And most of Chronicles was worthless crap, even in 1995. It was a small handful of cards whose values were "destroyed" after the release of that set, and none of them were very good to begin with. Their value came entirely from their rarity.
You know what else was a large scale reprint set with an unlimited print run? Every single core set from Revised Edition to Tenth Edition. And M10 to Magic Origins were a half reprint set with unlimited print run. And yet, somehow the game never managed to die off! Birds of Paradise has been printed seventeen times and is still a $10 card.
That doesn't mean it's the smart thing to do, or the right thing to do. It's the SAFE thing to do, sure, but it creates a frustrated community. I personally don't trust Wizards to be able to manage the future of their game: their long-term plan for formats seems to be "throw things at the wall and see what sticks." Their continued support of the RL is choking Legacy and Vintage out of existence. The Modern bannings and unbannings with no rhyme or reason just to "shake up the format" made many people afraid to buy in because they were afraid of their deck getting banned out of nowhere.
Wizards seems to be competent at running Standard (Fetch + Battleland manabases notwithstanding) but they don't know what to do with older formats. They are trying and failing to be everything to everyone. MaRo has made the point many times that they try to juggle multiple priorities when doing reprints, and quite honestly, I don't believe that "protect the secondary market" should be one of those priorities. The secondary market is a market: it can adapt and handle itself without Wizards riding herd with their heavy-handed reprint philosophy. If they discount he "protect my value" voices, let the market sort itself out without their "help," and reprint the stuff that they can make money on in whatever quantities they believe they can sell, they make more money and players are able to afford more of the cards they want to play with. The game as a whole grows, which should be theri ultimate goal.
Cards are not money, investments, or a retirement fund, and should never have been treated as such.
Wizards made a mistake caving to speculators once, and we still pay for that mistake 2 decades later.
"Entitled:" the entire ad hominem fallacy condensed into a single word. It doesn't strengthen your argument to attack motivations, it just makes you look like you don't understand the argument.
Is it really as safe as you say? I firmly believe Magic is a speculator bubble at the moment, and without intervention it will inevitably burst. This has the potential to influence players to quit the game in droves.
At the same time, the speculator bubble is also fragile enough that intervention at the unlimited level will burst it as well. At this point of time, would WotC take that risk of "being the villain" and take the surface-responsibility for bursting that bubble? I mean, we all know technically that the bubble is caused by speculators on one end and inaction by WotC on the other, but there's no denying that an action move will always attract way more (negative) attention than otherwise. The perfect example is Chronicles - not in the specifics of the print, but simply because WotC took action back then and we can't stop talking about it now, regardless of which side we stand on.
The speculators gambling their chances with cardboard they print aren't the real reason for inaction - the shareholders doing the same with Hasbro are the ones they are really considering their actions for... and unlike the speculators, which I do agree the game is better off without, they can't just say "screw the shareholders"... because the shareholders can also say "screw your job then" and that's a risk every individual at WotC wouldn't want to take.
At this point of time, I won't be surprised if they just waited out for the bubble to burst by itself at the moment (because it is publicly vastly less blame in their direction) and then pick up the pieces. It's true their reputation would take a hit either way, but it's a matter of choosing the one with less damage (and if anything Chronicles taught, is action does more). With a bit of tuned marketing to the masses (that doesn't work as well on us enfranchised players, but we're actually not the majority), they could actually twist the general public perception if they waited.
The potential of players quitting the game in droves is going to happen when the bubble bursts, regardless of reason. If Wizards chooses to be the one to do it via unlimited prints, they also run the risk of players from Standard leaving the format in droves and that being their main business (and safeguard against the bubble bursting in older formats)... is not something they'll risk to offend the shareholders. Almost every time they risked Standard to a certain major extent, they have been called up by the higher-ups for a meeting and those risks weren't even in the long term (they were mainly design mistakes that would rotate) such as making a non-rotating format as accessible as a rotating one.
I think that while we may not agree on the balance of the analysis, we agree on the analysis itself. I think Wizards is, like many an established institution, a bit timid in adopting policy changes. But we will see, over time, where they fall on this.
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I feel like this is exactly where Wizards has made the most mistakes: it feels like they're trying to wear 10 different hats while trying to convince us it's only one. You can't tell me EMA is not the latest in a long history of over-cautious limited run reprint sets that are more geared toward giving them a fast buck while protecting a secondary market they swear they have no stake in. I mean, sure, you can SAY that $10 packs with $20 EV will just rise to meet EV, but the reality is no different than prerelease hype - if these are printed to demand, the big shots like FoW go for a crazy stupid, expensive amount, then we get to see their impact once they're in the hands of the people, and the market corrects itself. And that's ignoring the fact that $10 boosters with $20 EV remain that way due to scarcity, because let's be honest with ourselves: a printed to demand product is not going to be able to break MSRP no matter whether it has Thoughtseize, Onslaught Fetches, Shocklands, or any other recent example of hotly desired, expensive cards in an unlimited set.
Quite simply, anyone pointing to Chronicles as an example is doing it wrong. The lesson from that set is Wizards will cave to a vocal minority that treats the cards like stocks. The reprinted cards were scarce and in a bubble, not valuable because of necessity for play. Moreover, the same vocal minority can run with reckless abandon in serious gray-area buyouts to artificially raise prices on certain cards (Gaddock Teeg the most recent example), and Wizards will still bow to their shocking behavior over a much larger majority that simply want to play the game and potentially grow the business. How Hasbro has not stepped in on these stupid shenanigans yet and shut it down is beyond me. When I look at a self-regulating CCG like Pokemon, where reprints breed accessibility constantly and no card is ever over $12 and their digital front is basically free and serves as a gateway drug to their paper product, I can't fathom how WotC has made so many boneheaded decisions like these. I can't wrap my head around how WotC basically wants me to go find some third party and pay them $75 for a card made 15 years ago instead of paying them $19.99 directly to include it in a new Duel Deck. They literally allow a secondary market to not only have control over the flow and ebbs of their product, but actually USE it to base their reprint policy off of...that's got to be the dumbest business I've ever heard of, they literally make nothing off the secondary market once the rotation from Standard has occurred.
Lastly, to wrap up my point, I think it's ridiculous to point to any level of intelligence, know-how, or market research WotC may or may not have done. No, they don't know better. Other companies in the CCG realm, especially lately, are proving that all the time. Second, there's no variable - the control has always been the safe bet, and WotC has never deviated one inch from that. Seriously, when was the last time there was a reprint set that actually crossed the line on EV per pack? It's never happened, ever. Sure, there are great buys out there, like M11, where you can find packs still hovering in the $6 or less range and crack quality Modern cards like Lightning Bolt, Mana Leak, the Titans, Baneslayer, Leylines, etc., but more often than not, taking a chance on any given pack is going to yield far less than you paid for it. You're never getting your money's worth, that's why it's always a sucker's bet. We've never had a set where the power level was on par with the price tag. As safe as WotC plays it, we never will. So everything said here is a lot of people making a lot of conjecture based on an Economics 101 course they took 10 years ago, with no proof or practical application to back it up.
I hate to point this out, but a Secondary Market and a format they have no (or very little) stake in is technically a competitor. Except since it's an "internal competitor", they can effectively snuff it out (Which they're technically doing it with the over-cautious reprints to make quick money of expectations that won't be met).
It's a nice scenario to imagine the Masters Series being printed to demand, prices regulate themselves and the price barriers to Eternal Formats lower themselves, while WotC makes a lot of profits out of it. But then after all that profit is made, prices have stabilized... then what happens? Do we just quietly decide to play Standard events and pump more money into the game? Absolutely not. You'll be sure in due time the forums will be nothing except for "Majority of GPs and PTs should be Modern/Legacy* instead of Standard events instead", because now we end up with an actual majority of players invested into an Eternal Format and are unwilling to pay for a Rotating Format whose power level is weaker than those in Eternal.
*Let's just pretend the RL was abolished and reprinted along with it - it's all hypothetical anyway.
This is actually the main reason why they refuse to print to demand - they know that a product printed to demand will eventually stabilize and result it as the most-played format. Since the format in question are considered competitors to Standard: the Gathering, where they make most of their money from... they don't actually assist those competitors. At this point of time, I don't really think it's merely listening to speculators' exact words - they know there's an eager bunch of people who can't wait to forfeit long-term payments via Standard because the Speculators have proved it so (even at insane prices people are still affording those to avoid the Standard menace), so they aren't exactly thrilled in supporting these people.
So yes... all this talk about "the large majority wanting to play the game" is a competitor to them... because the game "the majority" wants to play is not the game they want "the majority" to be playing.
The most frustrating thing is how they can't seem to hit the target, or choose not to, by going backwards in some ways with EMA that it becomes confusing and irritating. Most are not asking for Chronicle levels of reprints, but I can't see why we haven't gotten a proper level that most can be happy with. If EMA didn't have the limited print run and odd card choices, combined with odd rarities, and if the boosters weren't $10 as $7 seemed the most appropriate then many would be contented with this, rather than befuddled and frustrated.
Frankly, this doesn't give me high hopes for MM3 or an EMA2.
While I think we can safely say we are tilted on the opposite sides of the fence when it comes to the general picture, I do agree wholeheartedly on the "Wizards is way too cautious" strategy and am annoyed by parties of both sides using Chronicles as a reason (be it "Reprint like Chronicles" or "A bit more print means Chronicles disaster", they both annoy me.)
What I'm more "edgy" about are those who raise the term "Print to Demand", which I don't actually agree with when I take into account the differences in "demand" and considering WotC has shareholders to answer to. My main point is that WotC will still safeguard its interest (Standard) first and foremost. The implication comes when people assume "Print to Demand" as "Standard Print Run"... if anything the Secondary Market demonstrates, the demand for older cards is actually higher than for Standard cards, which means a "Print to Demand" effectively means "Print more than Standard Print Runs". Even if we put logistics aside, if I was depending on Standard as my main consistent revenue of income, that idea is terrible.
It's a going to sound a bit hypocritical (especially with what I say), but since WotC sees Standard Print Runs as the "Demand Cap" for products they care about, to print a nonstandard product at a level higher than that is practically demolishing Standard quite badly and technically a "Chronicles-Level" disaster to them (not to us though).
Even if we drop the whole "Print to Demand Thing" and just "Print at Standard Levels", WotC is so cautious that a product running at the same speed as a Standard Set will inevitably take business away from the Standard Set and well, they're still not completely wrong here, although I'll also argue here that by having a higher price tag, it would help mitigate this scenario they're worried about, although since I don't have numbers, I'm doing no convincing to anyone in a suit making decisions.
But what really annoys me (and where we agree) is that they pushed the cautiousness way too far as well. I doubt MM2 was anywhere near half a Standard Print Run, let alone a full run. Like you, I excused MM1 as a test run, but while MM2 did really increase the print run, they went ahead and increased the price as well, effectively curbing the positive steps they took by increasing the print run. Had they retained the MSRP of 7 and simply increased the print run, perhaps the Lottery-centric nature of the set would be a lot more forgivable on account that essentially MM2 is a MM1 replacing rares with filler "additional stock" to help bring down the price of the Mythics in particular, but not entirely crash all the MM1 rares with it (because the first MM1 did have its own repercussions of attracting too much new demand instead). In fact, if they went the other way, by lowering the price at the cost of the diluting the rare-quality pool, people would be more willing to draft the set like they wanted the set to perform, because well, the Mythics aren't going to open themselves to lower their prices, might as well take a gamble by drafting if each pack costs less.
Also like you, I don't have much expectations for EMA, let alone MM3/EMA2. They retained the price this time round and certainly had the set designed slightly better then MM2, but if the print run isn't increased, then it is going to be really no different from MM2 eventually.
Yep this exact statement is what baffles me. And yes I know all the reasons why and why not and it STILL puzzles me.
STOP using "dude/bro" as a pejorative or insult. Grow up.
Margaret Thatcher: “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”
Benjamin Franklin: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Martin Luther King Jr.: "I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."
It's because they need the secondary market to a) buy the product and b) run the tournaments I don't like it either but if you were to flood the market with reprints of expensive cards then a store's value sinks and they don't buy as much stock
Not necessarily. They could do it themselves if they so desired, but I don't think they want to take on the headache of running tournaments, hiring staff/insuring employees for it and all the associated expenses and implications of such. Its just easier for someone else to do it. If they did you just buy your packs/product from mass market retailers (Wal-Mart, Target, etc.) at a set MSRP. Individuals still crack packs and sell singles secondary market, Wizards tracks prices of certain cards (which is obvious what they do now with EMA) and pumps out these staples at prices where they make the profit instead of the "middleman". To discourage LGS and speculators there could be a cap on packs bought or so many per day. Or one box per customer per set, per store. It could be done. YES it would be a colossal headache though.
I'm not advocating a print them all until the ink runs out approach. But there needs to be MORE product hitting the shelves. I wouldn't mind picking up a set of Heritage Druid but when pre-sale prices are maybe a dollar less per card or at existing stock, that isn't helping anyone but speculators and LGS at the expense of the player. Reprints need to lower pricing and get it into players hands, not sit on the shelf of some speculator. Okay, I'm sure there are holes in my logic.
STOP using "dude/bro" as a pejorative or insult. Grow up.
Margaret Thatcher: “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”
Benjamin Franklin: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Martin Luther King Jr.: "I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."
Let me preface this by saying that I never said they reprinted all of the chase cards. Just many of them.
Competitive scene? I don't know. There really wasn't a competitive scene where I played back then. Just a ton of casuals. Just of the top of my head, almost all of the multi colored legends were sought after back then, Feldon's Cane,City Of Brass was awesome, Ernham Djinn was chase, and Recall and the tron lands. Not every card was chase.. I mean it had Abu Jafar in it! Back then Moat and Nether Void weren't that great. Agreed on Library of Alexandria, Juzam Djinn, and one you missed - Guardian Beast. No, they didn't reprint every chase card, but it did have a ton. Also, the game was far different back then. The competitive scene in '95 hadn't really taken hold in a lot of places. Just about everyone was playing some jank multiplayer style deck and many many commons and umcommons made it into peoples decks back then.
Tell that to Troll and Toad, for example...or anyone that invests in singles stock for CCG's that aren't magic. Almost every other one prints/reprints to demand, and if it was all doom and gloom like you're saying (again, back to my point, no proof as it has never been done by WotC before), then these other CCG's would be so unprofitable it wouldn't make sense to carry their product.
Where to begin...
First off on the concept of risk - the point is not moot. So lets walk through a couple of examples why... First - you say that doing nothing incurs zero risk. I disagree. By doing absolutely nothing they aggravate a small but growing segment of their player base that wants eternal formats to be cheap to enter. Second - I say that Wizards' is doing something. Several somethings actually. You've listed several of them yourselves. The MM series, EMA, reprinting fetches and the like. In doing so, Wizards' has already incurred risk of backlash from entrenched players (collectors and LGS's with those singles). So they did things like raise the MSRP and make the print run small reduce the risk of said backlash. Wizards has already proven that they are willing to take risks. You just don't see them going far enough.
As for the frustrated community, to use the fun phrase, a vocal minority of players wants to see them be cheap and accessible.
I think that it's absolutely shocking that you can say you don't trust Wizards' to manage the product they've successfully managed for over 20 years. Their long term plan for formats is the same as it has been for at least 5 years - Standard and Limited is where it's at. Modern will be supported to some extent, but not to the point where it interferes with Standard or Limited. Legacy and Vintage never will due to the RL. You've said yourself that they manage standard and limited well. Sure lines up with their long term plans for the company, doesn't it?
As for being everything to everyone - you have your opinion on how Wizards' should manage it. I have mine. I think they're doing a bang up job of balancing the overwhelming majority of their player base. Your belief on what Wizards' focuses on is worth just about as my belief. And finally - we go back to the risk versus reward discussion. By ultimately cutting out collectors and LGS's with money tied up in singles, they take on a big risk along with lost profits. You have yet to show any kind of reward to offset alienating a significant portion of those who contribute to the economy of the game.
Yatsufasa has already made an elegant point about what what Wizards' would have to do an an encore after crashing card prices. None of that sounds good for the long term health of the game. As for the game growing, it has continued to grow year over year, setting record numbers of players at events and profit margins for Hasbro. Sounds to me like their ultimate goal is already happening without reprinting to the ground.
STOP using "dude/bro" as a pejorative or insult. Grow up.
Margaret Thatcher: “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”
Benjamin Franklin: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Martin Luther King Jr.: "I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."
An estimated 15 million players and almost 7 billion worldwide? With about 1.2 billion of them living in developed countries? about 1% of them? Sorry, I've got to disagree here. Given that the game is 20 years old you have people who were playing the game as teenagers teaching their children. Wizards could easily have another 40-50 years of growth just by parents teaching their offspring. (unlikely that this would offset those leaving the game, but it does add future players with zero advertising)
I think you answered part of the question in your response. There are 6 billion in underdeveloped countries struggling to stay alive, a card game is the last thing on their mind. On top of that I don't have the statistics but this is a male dominated game. If I had to guess I'd say between 90-95 percent of players worldwide are male. There goes another 1 billion out of 1.2 billion that show interest. That is no knock against females. Right now this is a male dominated "sport". Baby Boomers aren't going to pick this game up. Gen X had to jump on the train years ago (Like I did). Gen Y and Millenials have a lot more invested in e-media/games/etc and they are the target market. I'd say growth for MTGO has lots of room. For paper Magic I'd be guessing it is going to reach a saturation point. Growth will slow, its inevitable. What Wizards does now CAN have an effect on what may happen another 20 years from now. Guess we will see what shakes out. I hope they make the correct decisions. I'd like to teach the game in paper to my GRANDCHILDREN!!!
STOP using "dude/bro" as a pejorative or insult. Grow up.
Margaret Thatcher: “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”
Benjamin Franklin: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Martin Luther King Jr.: "I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."
Sorry - how did you go from 1 billion out of 1.2 billion gone? I agree that men dominate the sport, but that would cut it in half from 1.2 billion to 600 million by eliminating women. Even if you take half again for all men under the age of 40 but at least 5 or 6 and able to play, that still leaves a target demographic of 300 million people and only 15 million playing. That is only 5%. Still plenty of room for growth. I agree that it will eventually reach a saturation point, but I believe that point is so far off in the distance it isn't worth considering right now. As they branch out into other areas, they can easily add to their growth numbers. The upcoming movie will at least raise awareness to many who didn't even know the game existed.
I really shouldn't have responded anyways. the numbers we are throwing around are pure speculation on both of our parts.
/Edit - I can't wait to teach the game to my two boys! They're only 2 and a half and 1, so I've got a few years to go. But I'm hoping my wife and I have 1 more so that we can start doing mini sealed tournaments in four man pods! Ultimately I too hope my grandchildren want to play as well and I can have a family drafting night in about 40 years
The argument that Magic cards aren't investments is simply not true. By the mere fact that there is a secondary market means that it is an investment. Just because you don't want to call it such doesn't make it any less real. And, the reason that it is an investment is what makes the game strong and allows for stores and tournaments which have grown the game. You cannot compare Magic to regular game pieces because they are not the same. There is no secondary market for Monopoly pieces or Risk pieces and the pieces are the same in every box. Magic is based on a collection of cards and the variety has created a vibrant secondary market. Whining about the costs and stating that they are not investments flies in the face of the evidence. As another example, comics and baseball cards are colored pieces of paper but they have been collectible for a long time. No one argues that Action #1 is a piece of paper and not worth anything because it was produced for short term consumption without any thought of future value. Similarly, if you buy a lotus for $1000, you expect it to be worth something. You have put your money into it and it is an investment. Whether it pays off or not is the risk you take with any investment.
In terms of this set, Wizards does not want to anger anyone (even the people who left due to the reprinting of Thoughseize, which I'm not sure is true) and that is why they took a conservative approach to this set. In my view, the problem is that Wizards did not reprint old cards which have not been foil or reframed and that they relied too much on newer cards. I also believe that Wizards limited the reprints and print run to see what impact it would have on the secondary market. I do not believe they saw MM2 as failure because they did almost the exact same thing with EMA (I do think MM2 was not as good a product as MM1 and that is shown by the availability of the product at MSRP at many stores). In closing, cards cost money and Wizards wanted the value to equate to the higher MSRP, but I do think it will dampen demand for the product and the packs will eventually sell for MSRP.
Oops, sorry my numbers were off. And yes we are speculating on these numbers, but we aren't on the inside so its all we can do. I got my son started just buying some cards for him when he was about 7 years old. We took it slow and I didn't really want to push the game on him. He took a little time and warmed up to it and now we have a nice father/son game connection. Some advice if you indulge me. Offer it up to your children and be there and supportive but don't push the game on them. Let them come to it, they may or may not. If they see you having fun with it and SHOW them that it is indeed fun, they will come around. I'd love to see the game in paper still around in 40 years myself. I hope it has the stamina to do so. Who knows I may see that Black Lotus reprint by that time. "Yep your grandpappy waited 60 years for Wizards to reprint Black Lotus as I missed it when it first came out."
STOP using "dude/bro" as a pejorative or insult. Grow up.
Margaret Thatcher: “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”
Benjamin Franklin: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Martin Luther King Jr.: "I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."
I will absolutely take your advice. I want them to enjoy the game... not have it pushed on them. My hope is that they'll pick it up quickly like I did and run with it, but that may not be the case. We'll start slow. Did you take your kids to any events? I have some concerns about the "quality" of those playing in FNM. I certainly dont want them to be exposed to the jackassery the game brings out in some people until they have a better understanding of human nature. Maybe sealed? Certainly not draft.. a little standard action?
My dream is to play 2HG with my daughter against the guy who taught me how to play and his daughter (who is four days younger than mine). Maybe in ten years.