So, Fate Reforged has given us a "new" mechanic from the Viashino Sandstalker of old in Dash.
The mechanic is straightforward but there are a lot of synergies beyond just "avoiding sorcery speed removal". Abusing ETB triggers (Purphoros, God of the Forge, etc), virtual card advantage of larger handsize and straight benefits of Haste are all keys here. That being said, historically these types of effects have never really been heavily played. Sandstalker was a fantastic red creature when it made its debut, but it dwindled quickly.
Lets break the Dash cards down.
Flamerush Rider - In my opinion this is actually one of the weaker Dash cards. There is no denying the powerful effect, but when you combine an easy to remove 3/3 body with the fact that you can only copy an attacking creature you get and underwhelming card. One of the big strengths of Twinflame (besides the scalability) is you can make a copy of anything - you don't need to copy an attacker. This really limits Rider's uses. Rider also occupies a spot on the curve which is very hard-fought for red right now.
Goblin Heelcutter - Solid, It can be difficult to justify ever playing him as a 3/2 hardcast (no Dash), but multiple "you can't block" triggers are sometimes needed in a world full of Courser of Kruphix and Siege Rhino. That being said, there are other cards that fill this niche right now and do it for less mana cost. This is a limited powerhouse, and could see fringe constructed play in the right deck as a 2-of. Being a Goblin is a big bonus.
Mardu Scout - While I don't think this will really rock the boat in Standard (more of a solid role-player rather than a "the deck revolves around me" card), it is a much bigger deal for older formats. Two red devotion and an economy Dash cost are great, but lack of trample means it will compete with things like Hellspark Elemental. Three power for 2 mana is something red really benefits from so we will see where this goes. Tribal synergy is big here as well.
Vaultbreaker - I think this card is much better than I gave it initial credit for when I read the spoiler list. Repeatable card filtering is fantastic and 4 hasty damage is a better deal than Goblin Heelcutter for the same costs. This card gives lategame gas and helps dig for what you need. Coming down on turn 3 to filter a card and either smash face or taking out an opposing Courser to free the way for others to get through is where an aggro deck wants to be. I'm looking forward to giving this a shot in several decks. This is probably the Dash card with the most promise at the moment.
Alesha's Vanguard - Well, its a Warrior. Beyond that, you can do better than this card.
Mardu Shadowspear - Warriors really needed a good one drop and they got it (several, actually thanks to Mardu Woe-Reaper). Consistent damage is a good thing although this does compete with Spiteful Returned at the moment. Bestow also somewhat "protects" from removal and 2 damage will kill faster than 1. This will come down to tribe support to determine the better card. Shadowspear is easier to use in multiples, so that is a big factor.
Mardu Strike Leader - Lots of value here. This gives control decks fits as you can reliably pump out more board presence to eat up removal, albeit at a high cost. I see this as a 1 or 2 of in the right deck for pure lategame value. Warriors don't have trouble gumming up the board with bodies early on as it is, but consistently making 3/1 tokens is damn nice (Chief of the Edge).
Kolaghan, the Storm's Fury - While this does have an impact on the board, it is hard to justify running it in the current meta. Stormbreath Dragon or Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker are better options purely for Haste damage in the air (even Flamewake Phoenix, really). The mini-anthem is ok, but Standard already has the much more impactful Trumpet Blast and older formats have more flex with things like Shared Animosity, Dynacharge and the like. Red and Black's other "high end" CMC stuff just does more for you. Not a bad card, but it really doesn't have a home. Dragon tribal isn't realistically going to happen beyond the kitchen table.
I really like the mechanic as it hits that sweet spot of being simple, flavorful, and providing a lot of depth to game play by adding decisions and having a broad range of interesting interactions.
I personally disagree with you on Kolaghan being less impactful than Trumpet Blast. Let's look at the math. Trumpet blast gives you +2 power for each creature you have on the board. Kolaghan gives you 4 power +1 power for each creature you have on the board (including herself, and this is assuming that you don't have stormbreath or sarkhan attacking as well, which bumps that by +1 power per creature on the board).
So, assuming you've got no other dragons out, the situation looks like this:
Creatures on Board when spell is cast |0|1|2|3|4|5 |
Total increase in power from Trumpet |0|2|4|6|8|10|
Total increase in power from Kolaghan |5|6|7|8|9|10|
So, you have to have at least 5 creatures on the board when you cast Trumpet in order for it to have an equal effect to Kolaghan on the same board. This, of course, isn't taking into account the pros and cons of each
- Trumpet Blast isn't a creature, and is an instant, so it doesn't have a period where its vulnerable to removal before giving the bonus (on the other hand, the only 1 card instant speed removal Kolaghan is killable with in standard that's run in decks currently is Hero's Downfall EDIT: Oh, and Abzan Charm. Pretty sure that's the only one I missed, not counting the potential of Reality Shift and Valorous Stance in the upcoming standard)
- Trumpet Blast gives each of your creatures +2 power, which can be crucial for getting through higher toughness creatures
- Trumpet Blast is mono colored, and therefore can fit into more decks
- Trumpet Blast is only 3 mana, compared to Kolaghan's 5
- Kolaghan, on the other hand, is a repeatable boost that you don't necessarily have to pay for every turn (that is, if you cast her for her normal cost and not her dash cost)
- Kolaghan gives you a 5/5 flier, which in the current meta is fairly likely to get through to hit your opponent or their planeswalker. And even if it doesn't, she flat out wins against 1 of the most popular fliers in standard (non-monstrous Stormbreath Dragon), effectively trades with another (Wingmate Roc. They'll likely keep the token, but you can get rid of the one that gives lifegain), but loses to the third (and a half) (Hornet Queen, and hard. Then again, very few creatures, flying or otherwise, can actually win in a fight against Hornet Queen :P. Also, Monstrous Stormbreath)
- Kolaghan can actually stabilize you after a board wipe, which Trumpet Blast flat out can't do.
- Kolaghan is a much more threatening top deck than Trumpet Blast in most situations, due to her nature as a repeatable power boost
- Kolaghan is a creature, and therefore, you don't have to dilute your aggro deck with non creatures if you run her over trumpet blast
I'm firmly of the belief that if some kind of Rakdos (or potentially Mardu) aggro deck is a thing in the upcoming standard (which it very well might not be, thanks to all of the mid range decks that are running around currently), Kolaghan will be a completely reasonable curve topping creature that will be seen in the deck fairly often, as a 1 or maybe 2 of. She fits much better into a multi color deck than Stormbreath or Sarkhan, particularly if the red in said Rakdos deck is just a splash for Kolaghan, Rabblemaster, and the activated ability on Brutal Hordechief. (also, she crucially dodges Stoke the Flames, while Stormbreath Dragon does not)
I suppose, in the end, we'll just have to wait and see, but I do think that you're undervaluing her in the right deck with your analysis. I definitely don't think that she has to be in dragon tribal to be worth running, and even if you should be running other dragons, I could potentially see a 1-2 or 1-3 split of her and Stormbreath.
Actually, I think we are largely on the same page. The card is good, but finding it a home may or may not happen, and it is in one of the most hotly contested mana costs in both Red and Black.
I suppose that's a fair assessment. I definitely do think that it will be worth at least strongly considering in aggro decks that want to go wide over Stormbreath or Sarkhan, however (again, though, not as a 4 of like Stormbreath, simply due to the legendary clause.)
Also, I totally forgot that Ashcloud Phoenix is also a flier that Kolaghan definitively wins against but Stormbreath doesn't. Add one to that list, I suppose.
I'm curious, though, what is actually contested at the 5 mana slot in black in standard currently? I can't think of anything that black aggro, or even black midrange, wants to play that's at 5 mana... (well, ok. Whip variants of midrange would probably rather run Doomwake Giant, but I don't really think Kolaghan fits into whip decks particularly well anyway :P)
Generally speaking I think Kolaghan will be overshadowed by Stormbreath/Sarkhan for a while. Not having to pay repeatedly in order to get the haste is huge. But I can see it getting played over them for two reasons:
1. As you said, much easier to splash.
2. In a tokens deck it actually adds a lot of damage by pumping your team. I wouldn't put it in just any aggro deck over the other two but if you are running Rabble and Outburst...
The mechanic is straightforward but there are a lot of synergies beyond just "avoiding sorcery speed removal". Abusing ETB triggers (Purphoros, God of the Forge, etc), virtual card advantage of larger handsize and straight benefits of Haste are all keys here. That being said, historically these types of effects have never really been heavily played. Sandstalker was a fantastic red creature when it made its debut, but it dwindled quickly.
Lets break the Dash cards down.
Flamerush Rider - In my opinion this is actually one of the weaker Dash cards. There is no denying the powerful effect, but when you combine an easy to remove 3/3 body with the fact that you can only copy an attacking creature you get and underwhelming card. One of the big strengths of Twinflame (besides the scalability) is you can make a copy of anything - you don't need to copy an attacker. This really limits Rider's uses. Rider also occupies a spot on the curve which is very hard-fought for red right now.
Goblin Heelcutter - Solid, It can be difficult to justify ever playing him as a 3/2 hardcast (no Dash), but multiple "you can't block" triggers are sometimes needed in a world full of Courser of Kruphix and Siege Rhino. That being said, there are other cards that fill this niche right now and do it for less mana cost. This is a limited powerhouse, and could see fringe constructed play in the right deck as a 2-of. Being a Goblin is a big bonus.
Mardu Scout - While I don't think this will really rock the boat in Standard (more of a solid role-player rather than a "the deck revolves around me" card), it is a much bigger deal for older formats. Two red devotion and an economy Dash cost are great, but lack of trample means it will compete with things like Hellspark Elemental. Three power for 2 mana is something red really benefits from so we will see where this goes. Tribal synergy is big here as well.
Vaultbreaker - I think this card is much better than I gave it initial credit for when I read the spoiler list. Repeatable card filtering is fantastic and 4 hasty damage is a better deal than Goblin Heelcutter for the same costs. This card gives lategame gas and helps dig for what you need. Coming down on turn 3 to filter a card and either smash face or taking out an opposing Courser to free the way for others to get through is where an aggro deck wants to be. I'm looking forward to giving this a shot in several decks. This is probably the Dash card with the most promise at the moment.
Alesha's Vanguard - Well, its a Warrior. Beyond that, you can do better than this card.
Mardu Shadowspear - Warriors really needed a good one drop and they got it (several, actually thanks to Mardu Woe-Reaper). Consistent damage is a good thing although this does compete with Spiteful Returned at the moment. Bestow also somewhat "protects" from removal and 2 damage will kill faster than 1. This will come down to tribe support to determine the better card. Shadowspear is easier to use in multiples, so that is a big factor.
Mardu Strike Leader - Lots of value here. This gives control decks fits as you can reliably pump out more board presence to eat up removal, albeit at a high cost. I see this as a 1 or 2 of in the right deck for pure lategame value. Warriors don't have trouble gumming up the board with bodies early on as it is, but consistently making 3/1 tokens is damn nice (Chief of the Edge).
Kolaghan, the Storm's Fury - While this does have an impact on the board, it is hard to justify running it in the current meta. Stormbreath Dragon or Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker are better options purely for Haste damage in the air (even Flamewake Phoenix, really). The mini-anthem is ok, but Standard already has the much more impactful Trumpet Blast and older formats have more flex with things like Shared Animosity, Dynacharge and the like. Red and Black's other "high end" CMC stuff just does more for you. Not a bad card, but it really doesn't have a home. Dragon tribal isn't realistically going to happen beyond the kitchen table.
Thoughts on the cards or the mechanic?
Honestly, I simply forgot. I have added it to the main post with my thoughts as well.
So, assuming you've got no other dragons out, the situation looks like this:
Creatures on Board when spell is cast |0|1|2|3|4|5 |
Total increase in power from Trumpet |0|2|4|6|8|10|
Total increase in power from Kolaghan |5|6|7|8|9|10|
So, you have to have at least 5 creatures on the board when you cast Trumpet in order for it to have an equal effect to Kolaghan on the same board. This, of course, isn't taking into account the pros and cons of each
- Trumpet Blast isn't a creature, and is an instant, so it doesn't have a period where its vulnerable to removal before giving the bonus (on the other hand, the only 1 card instant speed removal Kolaghan is killable with in standard that's run in decks currently is Hero's Downfall EDIT: Oh, and Abzan Charm. Pretty sure that's the only one I missed, not counting the potential of Reality Shift and Valorous Stance in the upcoming standard)
- Trumpet Blast gives each of your creatures +2 power, which can be crucial for getting through higher toughness creatures
- Trumpet Blast is mono colored, and therefore can fit into more decks
- Trumpet Blast is only 3 mana, compared to Kolaghan's 5
- Kolaghan, on the other hand, is a repeatable boost that you don't necessarily have to pay for every turn (that is, if you cast her for her normal cost and not her dash cost)
- Kolaghan gives you a 5/5 flier, which in the current meta is fairly likely to get through to hit your opponent or their planeswalker. And even if it doesn't, she flat out wins against 1 of the most popular fliers in standard (non-monstrous Stormbreath Dragon), effectively trades with another (Wingmate Roc. They'll likely keep the token, but you can get rid of the one that gives lifegain), but loses to the third (and a half) (Hornet Queen, and hard. Then again, very few creatures, flying or otherwise, can actually win in a fight against Hornet Queen :P. Also, Monstrous Stormbreath)
- Kolaghan can actually stabilize you after a board wipe, which Trumpet Blast flat out can't do.
- Kolaghan is a much more threatening top deck than Trumpet Blast in most situations, due to her nature as a repeatable power boost
- Kolaghan is a creature, and therefore, you don't have to dilute your aggro deck with non creatures if you run her over trumpet blast
I'm firmly of the belief that if some kind of Rakdos (or potentially Mardu) aggro deck is a thing in the upcoming standard (which it very well might not be, thanks to all of the mid range decks that are running around currently), Kolaghan will be a completely reasonable curve topping creature that will be seen in the deck fairly often, as a 1 or maybe 2 of. She fits much better into a multi color deck than Stormbreath or Sarkhan, particularly if the red in said Rakdos deck is just a splash for Kolaghan, Rabblemaster, and the activated ability on Brutal Hordechief. (also, she crucially dodges Stoke the Flames, while Stormbreath Dragon does not)
I suppose, in the end, we'll just have to wait and see, but I do think that you're undervaluing her in the right deck with your analysis. I definitely don't think that she has to be in dragon tribal to be worth running, and even if you should be running other dragons, I could potentially see a 1-2 or 1-3 split of her and Stormbreath.
Also, I totally forgot that Ashcloud Phoenix is also a flier that Kolaghan definitively wins against but Stormbreath doesn't. Add one to that list, I suppose.
I'm curious, though, what is actually contested at the 5 mana slot in black in standard currently? I can't think of anything that black aggro, or even black midrange, wants to play that's at 5 mana... (well, ok. Whip variants of midrange would probably rather run Doomwake Giant, but I don't really think Kolaghan fits into whip decks particularly well anyway :P)
1. As you said, much easier to splash.
2. In a tokens deck it actually adds a lot of damage by pumping your team. I wouldn't put it in just any aggro deck over the other two but if you are running Rabble and Outburst...