Well, there's 53 rares in the set, 1 per pack. With 5 fetches, that's roughly 1 fetch in 11 packs. Since 1 in 8 packs has a mythic instead of a rare, it's probably really closer to 1 fetch per 12 packs. Given you're opening 36 packs, that should be an AVERAGE of 3 fetches/box. We all know there's a lot of variation, though. Some boxes will have 0, others will have 6 or more. Obviously you get closer to the average as you buy more boxes... the odds of getting a whole case with so few fetches is much lower.
I love the "I am going to expose how little I understand about basic statistics" threads that pop up this time every set. That's all this is.
FYI - If I bought a box I would get 1 fetch and 2 Mythics... the $1-3 Mythics. I have ***** for luck.
We can do the math here, it's not that hard. 1 in 8 packs has a mythic, so that's an 87.5% of opening a rare. 5 in 53 rares are fetches, so that's a 9.4% chance. Multiply those two together, and there's a 8.25% chance any given pack has a fetch in it. Multiply that by 36, and on average each bock should have 2.97 fetchlands. However, we're interested in the boxes with none, how likely is that? Well, each pack has a 91.7% chance of not having a fetch. 0.917^36 (multiplying the odds of each successive pack not having a fetch) gives us 0.045, or a 4.5% chance that a box has no fetchlands at all. In other words, about one in every 22 boxes will have none.*
Given the massive numbers of boxes being opened there are going to be plenty of stories exactly like this. Yes, it's unfortunate for whomever it happens to, but it's hardly out of the ordinary, and certainly nothing to be surprised about when it happens. Disappointing, certainly, but having it never happen would be far, far more surprising.
TL:DR- this will happen to 1 in every 22 boxes on average.
*This does not take into account the very slim odds of opening a foil fetchland. Because a) They're tiny and b) I don't know exact numbers on distribution for sure.
I love the "I am going to expose how little I understand about basic statistics" threads that pop up this time every set. That's all this is.
FYI - If I bought a box I would get 1 fetch and 2 Mythics... the $1-3 Mythics. I have ***** for luck.
I have pure **** for luck. For JOU I opened up 2 Worst Fears... which was my... worst fear... best thing I opened in the whole box was the Aegis of the Gods guy, and no one gives **** number 1 about him anymore, either. Only God I pulled was Kruphix. My box value was very, very sad. Meanwhile, my friend buys 1 pack a week and reliably pulls one of the top 3 cards in each set. He was even *****ing that he kept getting the King of Oreskos bastard. I wanted to punch him in the dick, lol.
That said, I have a KTK box on the way. I'm a masochist
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Decks
Commander
Ezuri, Renegade Leader (Aggro/Combo - Favorite) Skullbriar, the Walking Grave (Sac and Grave hijinks) Azusa, Lost but Seeking (Landfall hijinks) Kaalia of the Vast (Heavily modded)
Does Wizards still print in the C1, C2, ect. format? I always wondered if Lightning Bolt in m10 was a short print common...'course we only opened around 10 boxes so ya know sample size and all that.
This makes me even sadder about no Holiday Gift Box this year-
I got quite a few Shocklands out of the RTR ones
(and out of Dragon's Maze, which has no analogue this go round)
Momir Vig, Simic Visionary
Melek, Izzet Paragon
Oona, Queen of the Fae
Bruna, Light of Alabaster
Gisela, Blade of Goldnight
Rhys the Redeemed
Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord
Sen Triplets
The Mimeoplasm WUBRGSliver OverlordGRBUW WUBRGSliver Hivelord(Superfriends)GRBUW
This makes me even sadder about no Holiday Gift Box this year-
I got quite a few Shocklands out of the RTR ones
(and out of Dragon's Maze, which has no analogue this go round)
Momir Vig, Simic Visionary
Melek, Izzet Paragon
Oona, Queen of the Fae
Bruna, Light of Alabaster
Gisela, Blade of Goldnight
Rhys the Redeemed
Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord
Sen Triplets
The Mimeoplasm WUBRGSliver OverlordGRBUW WUBRGSliver Hivelord(Superfriends)GRBUW
We can do the math here, it's not that hard. 1 in 8 packs has a mythic, so that's an 87.5% of opening a rare. 5 in 53 rares are fetches, so that's a 9.4% chance. Multiply those two together, and there's a 8.25% chance any given pack has a fetch in it. Multiply that by 36, and on average each bock should have 2.97 fetchlands. However, we're interested in the boxes with none, how likely is that? Well, each pack has a 91.7% chance of not having a fetch. 0.917^36 (multiplying the odds of each successive pack not having a fetch) gives us 0.045, or a 4.5% chance that a box has no fetchlands at all. In other words, about one in every 22 boxes will have none.*
Given the massive numbers of boxes being opened there are going to be plenty of stories exactly like this. Yes, it's unfortunate for whomever it happens to, but it's hardly out of the ordinary, and certainly nothing to be surprised about when it happens. Disappointing, certainly, but having it never happen would be far, far more surprising.
TL:DR- this will happen to 1 in every 22 boxes on average.
*This does not take into account the very slim odds of opening a foil fetchland. Because a) They're tiny and b) I don't know exact numbers on distribution for sure.
To add to the math on this, I'll do the foil part.
The current foil ratio is 1:56, which means 1 in every 57 cards will be foil. (1:56 means 1 foil to 56 non-foils, not 1 in 56 cards which would be annotated 1/56)
Since the foil replaces a common, I'll assume the foil odds take into account 14-card packs and do not include the basic land even though you can get a foil basic.
That means a booster box will have 504 cards, which maths out to 8.84 foils per box. 53 of 269 cards in the set are Rare, so assuming an equal chance of every card in the set at foil (which in my fairly significant experience seems to hold true) each foil has a 19.7% chance of being Rare, so the average box will have 1.74 foil rares (this seems to hold up to my previous claim of even distribution, as I would say 2 foil rares is the most common out of a box). With a 9.4% chance of a rare being a fetch, that results in an average of 0.16 foil fetches per box, or 1 foil fetch in every 6.25 boxes.
EDIT: If the basic lands count in the card ratio, that changes the numbers to: 9.47 foils per box, 1.87 foil rares, 0.175 foil fetches, or 1 foil fetch per 5.71 boxes. So still roughly 1/6 chances of getting a foil fetch out of a box.boxes having a foil fetch.
If 1 in 22 boxes will have no nonfoil fetch, and 1 in 6 boxes have a foil fetch, that means that approximately 1 in 132 boxes will have no normal fetch but WILL have a foil fetch.
23 boosters from my two prereleases and no fetch, no sarkhan, no sorin. pretty sure the tcgplayer total of everything adds up to less than 30$ perorder price. very few of my opponents had opened up a fetch either. only the scrubs had managed to open a fetch.
I love the "I am going to expose how little I understand about basic statistics" threads that pop up this time every set. That's all this is.
FYI - If I bought a box I would get 1 fetch and 2 Mythics... the $1-3 Mythics. I have ***** for luck.
That's basically 90% of the boxes I open. I'm always the ONE person at the LGS who only gets 3-4 mythics while everyone else gets 7-8, gets no foil rare/mythic or my foil rare is one of the intro deck rares, and doesn't pull the chase planeswalker/mythic while everyone else gets 1-2 copies per box. Only two amazing boxes I've ever opened were Zendikar, in which I pulled 5 fetches and RtR, in which I opened Jace, Revelation and 5 shocks, one of which was foil.
The sheer amount of junk rares in this set that I don't want is making me really hesitant to open a box, even though it's always fun to do, especially when there are fetches involved.
how did he get all these packs even before pre-release
That's what I am wondering as well. Does he have some special connection to a LGS or something like that?
I too was wondering this when I was watching him cracking open multiple prerelease packs before the prerelease. he seems to have a ton of Magic product. I wonder if he has some kind of setup where he's registered with WoTC as if he were a card shop so he can purchase product like that.
Just played the prerelease. First one got no fetches, second go around I opened two flooded strands and in my 1 prize pack I got a polluted delta (Also traded some junk for a Bloodstained mire, told the person I was ripping them off and to take more and they refused) so I opened 3 fetches from 7 from one prerelease event or 3 from 16 packs for the day. It seemed like there were plenty going around but then again there was 160 people there.
I opened 86 prize packs (2 unopened booster boxes + 14 loose packs) with friends from the midnight prerelease after we took Top 3 and found there to be a shockingly low number of fetches. We only opened 4 total from 86 packs but we did get a foil and nonfoil Sarkhan and a bunch of other goodies. However at the prerelease, I opened a Windswept Heath and all my opponents opened 1 fetch as well. I faced 2 opponents and saw multiple people next to me have 2 fetches which I found to be mind blowing. I wonder if it's worth picking up leftover prerelease packs for $25-30 considering you seem to have a greater chance of opening fetches and a chance of a sweet promo rare.
Second prerelease today, I opted for credit instead of packs after going 3-0-1 because the pulls were pretty meh from the midnight prerelease. Here's a picture of the boxes we opened.
I opened 86 prize packs (2 unopened booster boxes + 14 loose packs) with friends from the midnight prerelease after we took Top 3 and found there to be a shockingly low number of fetches. We only opened 4 total from 86 packs but we did get a foil and nonfoil Sarkhan and a bunch of other goodies. However at the prerelease, I opened a Windswept Heath and all my opponents opened 1 fetch as well. I faced 2 opponents and saw multiple people next to me have 2 fetches which I found to be mind blowing. I wonder if it's worth picking up leftover prerelease packs for $25-30 considering you seem to have a greater chance of opening fetches and a chance of a sweet promo rare.
Second prerelease today, I opted for credit instead of packs after going 3-0-1 because the pulls were pretty meh from the midnight prerelease. Here's a picture of the boxes we opened.
how many prize packs are they awarding you lol?! for mky store it is 11 for 4-0, 8 for 3-1-1 and 5 for 3-1.
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Planeswalkers Khans of Tarkir Booster Box Opening…: http://youtu.be/K76oR8lRPA8
Could this be the norm? 0-2 fetches a box? Glad I didn't preorder a case now!
Honestly, if you don't open 3 fetches, it ain't worth the box. I am kind disappointed. Still going to open a box.
U Merfolk | GR Tron | WUR Jeskai Control | WBG Abzan Company
EDH:
G Ezuri, Renegade Leader, Fighting for Rivendell
WU Brago, King Eternal, Long Live the King
WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon, Worship the Dragon
I opened a box of RtR and only got a single shockland. I should ask for my money back.
Yes, you are guaranteed at least 36 rares.
Want to be a better Magic player? Read the rulings forum and check out the comprehensive rules!
FYI - If I bought a box I would get 1 fetch and 2 Mythics... the $1-3 Mythics. I have ***** for luck.
WUBRGPauper Battle BoxWUBRG ... and why I am not a fan of Wayne Reynolds' Illustrations.
Given the massive numbers of boxes being opened there are going to be plenty of stories exactly like this. Yes, it's unfortunate for whomever it happens to, but it's hardly out of the ordinary, and certainly nothing to be surprised about when it happens. Disappointing, certainly, but having it never happen would be far, far more surprising.
TL:DR- this will happen to 1 in every 22 boxes on average.
*This does not take into account the very slim odds of opening a foil fetchland. Because a) They're tiny and b) I don't know exact numbers on distribution for sure.
RGWNaya BurnRGW+++RGWKiki ComboRGW
UGInfectUG+++++++++.++++++++UGMerfolkUG
GGNykthos WaveGG++++++++++GGStompyGG
BRVampiresBR+++++++.+++++++BRGoblinsBR
WGBogglesWG+++++++++++++CRSkred RedCR
UBRGDredgeUBRG++++++++++BB8 RackBB
URWJeskaiURW+++.++UBRGrixis DelverUBR
URStormUR++++++++UWGBant CompanyUWG
WUBRGHumansWUBRG+CCEldrazi TronCC
...and I'm not even sure it's worth being a thread there...
I have pure **** for luck. For JOU I opened up 2 Worst Fears... which was my... worst fear... best thing I opened in the whole box was the Aegis of the Gods guy, and no one gives **** number 1 about him anymore, either. Only God I pulled was Kruphix. My box value was very, very sad. Meanwhile, my friend buys 1 pack a week and reliably pulls one of the top 3 cards in each set. He was even *****ing that he kept getting the King of Oreskos bastard. I wanted to punch him in the dick, lol.
That said, I have a KTK box on the way. I'm a masochist
Commander
Ezuri, Renegade Leader (Aggro/Combo - Favorite)
Skullbriar, the Walking Grave (Sac and Grave hijinks)
Azusa, Lost but Seeking (Landfall hijinks)
Kaalia of the Vast (Heavily modded)
Standard
Waiting for Innistrad...
Extended
Hah!
Modern
Living End Cascade (RGB)
Legacy
Burn
Vintage
None
Casual
WB Aggro-Control
Green Stompy
Pink Floyd (UWr Wall Control)
Lunch Box (Fatty ramp)
D-Bag (White Control)
Level 13 Task Mage
how did he get all these packs even before pre-release
I got quite a few Shocklands out of the RTR ones
(and out of Dragon's Maze, which has no analogue this go round)
Reprint Stasis!
Control needs more love.
EDH:
Momir Vig, Simic Visionary
Melek, Izzet Paragon
Oona, Queen of the Fae
Bruna, Light of Alabaster
Gisela, Blade of Goldnight
Rhys the Redeemed
Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord
Sen Triplets
The Mimeoplasm
WUBRGSliver OverlordGRBUW
WUBRGSliver Hivelord(Superfriends)GRBUW
There is a holiday gift box
http://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/announcing-2014-holiday-gift-box-2014-09-11
It's even red/black like I was hoping!
Thanks for making my evening,
I don't know how I missed this
Reprint Stasis!
Control needs more love.
EDH:
Momir Vig, Simic Visionary
Melek, Izzet Paragon
Oona, Queen of the Fae
Bruna, Light of Alabaster
Gisela, Blade of Goldnight
Rhys the Redeemed
Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord
Sen Triplets
The Mimeoplasm
WUBRGSliver OverlordGRBUW
WUBRGSliver Hivelord(Superfriends)GRBUW
To add to the math on this, I'll do the foil part.
The current foil ratio is 1:56, which means 1 in every 57 cards will be foil. (1:56 means 1 foil to 56 non-foils, not 1 in 56 cards which would be annotated 1/56)
Since the foil replaces a common, I'll assume the foil odds take into account 14-card packs and do not include the basic land even though you can get a foil basic.
That means a booster box will have 504 cards, which maths out to 8.84 foils per box. 53 of 269 cards in the set are Rare, so assuming an equal chance of every card in the set at foil (which in my fairly significant experience seems to hold true) each foil has a 19.7% chance of being Rare, so the average box will have 1.74 foil rares (this seems to hold up to my previous claim of even distribution, as I would say 2 foil rares is the most common out of a box). With a 9.4% chance of a rare being a fetch, that results in an average of 0.16 foil fetches per box, or 1 foil fetch in every 6.25 boxes.
EDIT: If the basic lands count in the card ratio, that changes the numbers to: 9.47 foils per box, 1.87 foil rares, 0.175 foil fetches, or 1 foil fetch per 5.71 boxes. So still roughly 1/6 chances of getting a foil fetch out of a box.boxes having a foil fetch.
If 1 in 22 boxes will have no nonfoil fetch, and 1 in 6 boxes have a foil fetch, that means that approximately 1 in 132 boxes will have no normal fetch but WILL have a foil fetch.
That's basically 90% of the boxes I open. I'm always the ONE person at the LGS who only gets 3-4 mythics while everyone else gets 7-8, gets no foil rare/mythic or my foil rare is one of the intro deck rares, and doesn't pull the chase planeswalker/mythic while everyone else gets 1-2 copies per box. Only two amazing boxes I've ever opened were Zendikar, in which I pulled 5 fetches and RtR, in which I opened Jace, Revelation and 5 shocks, one of which was foil.
The sheer amount of junk rares in this set that I don't want is making me really hesitant to open a box, even though it's always fun to do, especially when there are fetches involved.
I too was wondering this when I was watching him cracking open multiple prerelease packs before the prerelease. he seems to have a ton of Magic product. I wonder if he has some kind of setup where he's registered with WoTC as if he were a card shop so he can purchase product like that.
Trades
Pucatrade with me!
(Signature courtesy of Argetlam of Hakai Studios
Second prerelease today, I opted for credit instead of packs after going 3-0-1 because the pulls were pretty meh from the midnight prerelease. Here's a picture of the boxes we opened.
Credit to Heroes of the Plane Studios for the Avatar & Miraculous Recovery for the Banner.
My 540 Card Cube (WIP)
how many prize packs are they awarding you lol?! for mky store it is 11 for 4-0, 8 for 3-1-1 and 5 for 3-1.