In a nice change I have been seeing a large number of posts praising JOU and a lot of optimism about it's potential impact on standard (i'm guessing a lot of this has to do with a combination of spoiler season hype and the sheer hatred most people have about BNG). But how much of this is justified at this point? What rares/mythics have we seen so far that are actually better than bulk (let alone chase)?
UPDATED: Now that the set is complete I thought i'd give this another try, how many cards do we have which are "better than bulk".
Definitely Better Than Bulk:
1. Aegis of the Gods - a reworked True Believer and importantly for standard one that helps white (and also white-green) decks with some of their weakness to Lifebane Zombie.
2. Godsend - same as before
3. Dictate of Kruphix - same as before
4. Dictate of Erebos - it's Gravepact with flash, probably too expensive for standard but the effect gets a lot of love in casual/EDH.
5. Eidolon of the Great Revel - same as before
6. Dictate of Karametra - it's Mana Flare/Heartbeat of Spring with flash to allow you to abuse it first, it may become central to a combo/ramp strategy and even failing that these effects are always popular for casual.
7. Ajani, Mentor of Heroes - same as before
8. Athreos, God of Passage - my pick for best card in set, undercosted god which gives decks like WB humans a lot of extra reach/inevitability (also good in mono black aggro and white weenie if they choose to splash for it).
9. Iroas, God of Victory - same as before
10. Kruphix, God of Horizons - I'm not sure if even the standard UG devotion/ramp decks want him since he's very much on the win more side of things but of all the gods it has the greatest casual (and particularly EDH appeal) so it should manage to be better than bulk even if it fails in constructed.
11. Pharika, God of Affliction - Even with the drawback of it's ability giving your opponent snakes if you target them, it's still strong just with your own graveyard and fits nicely into GB Dredge decks in standard as a low cost hard to kill beater that also provides some late game inevitability.
12. Mana Confluence - It's a fixed City of Brass, control decks won't touch it but 3 color (and even some 2 color) aggro decks will be very happy to have this around in standard.
13. Temple of Epiphany - same as before
14. Temple of Malady - same as before
15. Hall of Triumph - same as before
All of these cards have the potential to be better than bulk but they are reliant on either spawning a new deck (Eidolon of Blossoms), on the casual demand being high enough (Sage of Hours) or on finding a home in a popular deck/s (Deicide/Silence the Believers). I'm confident that many of them will see play (particularly Deicide and Silence the Believers) but seeing play as a 1-2 of or as a sideboard card often isn't enough to push a card to beyond bulk status.
All of these uncommons have the potential to be worthwhile opens and their presence in a pack could make the difference between a pack being a loss or a win (in cash value anyway). Particularly Banishing Light and Dakra Mystic since the others need testing and/or a deck in order to be successful.
Conclusions:
I've possibly been a bit overly harsh at parts (and maybe a bit too generous in a couple of cases) but to me that's 15 definite wins and 10 possible wins out of 45 rares/mythics in the set (and potentially 7 out of 60 uncommons) which would make buying/opening an individual pack worthwhile. This isn't horrible as sets go but it's still not amazing and i'm not convinced that any of the cards fall in the "big win" category, Ajani has no home yet, Athreos's homes aren't currently top tier and there aren't any cards outside of perhaps Dakra Mystic which seem likely to have much of an impact on eternal formats (even on modern).
For those who are interested, the Original Version:
Definitely Better than Bulk: Dictate of Kruphix - it's a Howling Mine that lets you draw first, regardless of whether it sees play in standard (turbo fog maybe?) it'll be a favorite of casual players for years to come. Eidolon of the Great Revel - it's Pyrostatic Pillar on a stick, Pillar was a good sideboard for many red decks in many formats and this will be too, quality hate bears always see some love. Iroas, God of Victory - It doesn't really have a place but the Pyreheart Wolf ability and the Dolmen Gate ability make for a pretty effective boost in aggro vs. aggro/midrange matchups and it's in the right colors to easily trigger the devotion (and a 7/4 indestructible creature for 4 is a pretty good deal). Plus it's a mythic and a God, usually good enough to keep it above bulk. Ajani, Mentor of Heroes - It doesn't have a home, costs 5 and doesn't protect itself but it does have 2 [+] abilities, provides a constant stream of card advantage and it's ultimate of gaining 100 life is hard for many decks to deal with. Plus it's a planeswalker and even if it doesn't make waves in standard that is usually enough to save it from being bulk (a planeswalker has to be truly bad like Tibalt, the Fiend-Blooded to hit bulk levels). Temple of Epiphany and Temple of Malady - The scry lands are known quantities, these are great cards which will open up new color combinations to standard and boost the landbased of many decks. No chance of being bulk (at least not while they are in standard). Hall of Triumph - it's a 3cc legendary colorless artifact Honor the Pure for the color of your choice, that's a pretty good thing, anthem effects are always popular and this one gives white weenie a 2nd one (on top of Spear of Heliod) and should see a fair amount of casual love too. Godsend - it's an affordable to cast and equip piece of equipment with potent abilities and the "benefit" of counting towards white devotion, it's also a mythic with a cool name and cool art (which never hurts), all of this means that even though it's got drawbacks (like being legendary) and may not be a staple anywhere it should at the least settle at an above bulk rate.
Possibly Better than Bulk: Dawnbringer Charioteers - it starts out as a Seraph of Dawn (a card which was a limited powerhouse and that saw some sideboard play) but with a heroic trigger or two it turns into a huge flying lifelinked angelic threat and cards like Exalted Angel, Baneslayer Angel etc. have been powerhouses over the years. The heroic aspect and the fact that this is the white promo rare however might cause this to become bulk even if it ends up being playable. Sage of Hours - it's a mythic, it a "grow" creature in mono blue and it can give you extra turns (arbitrarily large numbers of them in the right deck) all of this adds up to a card which while probably not constructed viable should be a casual favorite and hopefully stay above bulk thanks to that and being mythic (similar to Lighthouse Chronologist - a card currently going for $8 or so despite seeing not constructed play). Dictate of the Twin Gods - I don't see this getting there in standard thanks to having to compete for a slot with Stormbreath Dragon but Furnace of Rath effects are popular and one that can be used as a combat trick or as an end of opponents turn play (to be followed by a hand full of burn to the head) is a powerful effect and sure to be popular in casual circles if nothing else. Eidolon of Blossoms - A cantripping 4cc 2/2 enchantress, it probably isn't good enough for constructed but that won't stop heaps of people giving it a try and even failing constructed enchantress gets a lot of casual love which could keep this above bulk (if only barely). Keranos, God of the Storms - Doesn't really have a home, the devotion part and resulting creature is lackluster by God standards and which triggers between draw and bolt is down to chance (outside of scry setups), that said it is a mythic and God and even at 5 mana reusable advantage engines are powerful things so hopefully it'll be above bulk.
So that's currently 8 definitely above bulk and 5 possibly above bulk (the remaining 6 are bulk to my mind although if we get enough viable enchantment creatures Extinguish All Hope might stand a chance). That's not bad out of only 19 rares/mythics so far, but I do find it a bit depressing that at the moment for long term value/self play value I would probably rather open one of the scry lands than any other rare or mythic since there doesn't seem to be a real chase card of the set yet (although opening a God or Ajani and trading it away while it's at overhyped prices is definitely worthwhile) and most of the above bulk cards feel like they are only just above bulk (get your pack value back level).
Any opinions? Do you think I got anything wrong and why?
I think Doomwake Giant is not to be underestimated. Probably better then the Charioteers. Might not have a home right off the bat, but it is a scary ability. I think there can be some Golgari stuff done with it and the Blossoms Eidolon, but that might be wishful thinking.
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My Commander decks:
Chandra, Torch of Defiance - Oops! All Chandras.
Prime Speaker Zegana - Draw for Power.
Pir & Toothy - Counterpalooza.
Arcades, the Strategist - Another Brick in the Wall.
Zacama, Primal Calamity - Calamity of Double Mana.
Edgar Markov - Vampires Don't Die.
Child of Alara - Dreamcrusher.
You can update the "Definitely Better than Bulk" list with Mana Confluence. Worst Fears as a mythic could be at least a little bit higher than bulk because of EDH.
I agree; Mana Confluence has a good chance to be one of the most expensive Rares in the set (and possibly the entire block, up against Thoughtseize, Hero's Downfall and the popular Scrylands).
Also, I don't see it as unfortunate that Scrylands are the best possible open; playable dual lands have often been the hallmark of desirable Rares (especially before the creation of the Mythic Rarity), and we can only hope that never changes.
You can add Mana Confluence(the new city of brass) and Dictate of Karametra to the definitely above bulk list. Mana Confluence will very likely see modern play (its less painful than fetch/shock untapped), and Dictate of Karametra, like the other two Dictates, is a popular casual/commander effect that is upgraded in letting you get an advantage of the symmetry. I also expect Keranos to hold a decent price(at least $8), probably higher, despite not being particularly powerful. Pretty much all of the Gods are worth decent money, and there are a lot of Izzet fans. Compare him to Melek, who was one of the worst standard guild champions, but still held a decent price because of casuals (though Melek is more powerful in commander).
This set seems like it will be pretty solid, all of the Gods will have some value, and most, if not all, of the Dictates will be solid, as well as the scrylands and Ajani. Don't hold out much hope for Dawnbringer Charioteers, I think that one is about as bulk as it gets.
IMHO, Eidolon of Blossoms is so underestimated. This card gives you certainly a card advantage and with so many good enchantment rightnow, it WILL be Stardard Playable.
Reprisal has a place as a sideboard card.
Black has access to better creature removal, but this is pretty good for White.
Monsters gets wrecked pretty hard by it,
Jarad hates it,
and Heroic has to keep their critters small enough to avoid it.
It's not going to make major waves,
but I'm sure WR GW and WU will find a use for it.
Momir Vig, Simic Visionary
Melek, Izzet Paragon
Oona, Queen of the Fae
Bruna, Light of Alabaster
Gisela, Blade of Goldnight
Rhys the Redeemed
Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord
Sen Triplets
The Mimeoplasm WUBRGSliver OverlordGRBUW WUBRGSliver Hivelord(Superfriends)GRBUW
Reprisal has a place as a sideboard card.
Black has access to better creature removal, but this is pretty good for White.
Monsters gets wrecked pretty hard by it,
Jarad hates it,
and Heroic has to keep their critters small enough to avoid it.
It's not going to make major waves,
but I'm sure WR GW and WU will find a use for it.
Reprisal is a very solid card that's sure to see some play, the main reasons I didn't add it was the fact that even in mono white it has a fair bit of competition (Last Breath, Celestial Flare and most importantly Banishing Light) and the fact that it's a reprint (although it's admittedly been ages since it was last in standard).
@TwinSais:
Do you have a reason that Pharika should be classified bulk? I know i'm in the minority in terms of rating it as highly as I do (maybe it should be in the possibly category), but even at the low end it's still a mythic and a god (and the ability becomes a lot better in casual/EDH multiplayer where giving snakes can be a good political move) and that seems unlikely to slide into bulk status (worth less than the value of a booster pack).
I agree on the other 2 which is why they are in the possibly category not unlisted as bulk. But i'm not convinced that Deicide has it in it to maintain a value better than bulk. Sideboard cards that are standard exclusive tend to have problems. I will upgrade Dictate of Erebos though, you are right the casual appeal of Grave Pact style cards is huge even if the cost pretty much means it'll never make it in standard.
Reprisal will surely be played. With it straight UW Control can deal with Obzedat, Ghost Council and Mistcutter Hydra which were big problems before. Also bonkers in general against GR/x Monsters.
Is "better than bulk" meaningful, though? Every set has lots of cards that are hyped and "better than bulk", but in practice 90% of those cards see little or no serious play.
I'm not sure exactly what your criteria is, but I'm guessing the majority of the cards (at least rares) listed will be one dollar cards in a few months.
Is "better than bulk" meaningful, though? Every set has lots of cards that are hyped and "better than bulk", but in practice 90% of those cards see little or no serious play.
I'm not sure exactly what your criteria is, but I'm guessing the majority of the cards (at least rares) listed will be one dollar cards in a few months.
The criteria is pretty simple, something is better than bulk if it makes the pack it came in worthwhile and/or would appear in an actual sales shelf/folder instead of just in a bulk rares box. And yeah it's a rare thing which is why I did a list, if nothing else it also helps me evaluate if I should buy a box or not.
No way Keranos, God of Storms even comes close to being bulk. Just being a God means it has enough cachet that some people will want it. Factor in the very splashy abilities, and this will be quite a popular casual card. And that's all assuming this doesn't see competitive play (which it probably won't, but there's an outside shot).
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UPDATED: Now that the set is complete I thought i'd give this another try, how many cards do we have which are "better than bulk".
Definitely Better Than Bulk:
1. Aegis of the Gods - a reworked True Believer and importantly for standard one that helps white (and also white-green) decks with some of their weakness to Lifebane Zombie.
2. Godsend - same as before
3. Dictate of Kruphix - same as before
4. Dictate of Erebos - it's Gravepact with flash, probably too expensive for standard but the effect gets a lot of love in casual/EDH.
5. Eidolon of the Great Revel - same as before
6. Dictate of Karametra - it's Mana Flare/Heartbeat of Spring with flash to allow you to abuse it first, it may become central to a combo/ramp strategy and even failing that these effects are always popular for casual.
7. Ajani, Mentor of Heroes - same as before
8. Athreos, God of Passage - my pick for best card in set, undercosted god which gives decks like WB humans a lot of extra reach/inevitability (also good in mono black aggro and white weenie if they choose to splash for it).
9. Iroas, God of Victory - same as before
10. Kruphix, God of Horizons - I'm not sure if even the standard UG devotion/ramp decks want him since he's very much on the win more side of things but of all the gods it has the greatest casual (and particularly EDH appeal) so it should manage to be better than bulk even if it fails in constructed.
11. Pharika, God of Affliction - Even with the drawback of it's ability giving your opponent snakes if you target them, it's still strong just with your own graveyard and fits nicely into GB Dredge decks in standard as a low cost hard to kill beater that also provides some late game inevitability.
12. Mana Confluence - It's a fixed City of Brass, control decks won't touch it but 3 color (and even some 2 color) aggro decks will be very happy to have this around in standard.
13. Temple of Epiphany - same as before
14. Temple of Malady - same as before
15. Hall of Triumph - same as before
Possibly Better Than Bulk:
All of these cards have the potential to be better than bulk but they are reliant on either spawning a new deck (Eidolon of Blossoms), on the casual demand being high enough (Sage of Hours) or on finding a home in a popular deck/s (Deicide/Silence the Believers). I'm confident that many of them will see play (particularly Deicide and Silence the Believers) but seeing play as a 1-2 of or as a sideboard card often isn't enough to push a card to beyond bulk status.
NEW: Worthwhile/Potentially Worthwhile Uncommons:
All of these uncommons have the potential to be worthwhile opens and their presence in a pack could make the difference between a pack being a loss or a win (in cash value anyway). Particularly Banishing Light and Dakra Mystic since the others need testing and/or a deck in order to be successful.
Conclusions:
I've possibly been a bit overly harsh at parts (and maybe a bit too generous in a couple of cases) but to me that's 15 definite wins and 10 possible wins out of 45 rares/mythics in the set (and potentially 7 out of 60 uncommons) which would make buying/opening an individual pack worthwhile. This isn't horrible as sets go but it's still not amazing and i'm not convinced that any of the cards fall in the "big win" category, Ajani has no home yet, Athreos's homes aren't currently top tier and there aren't any cards outside of perhaps Dakra Mystic which seem likely to have much of an impact on eternal formats (even on modern).
For those who are interested, the Original Version:
Definitely Better than Bulk:
Dictate of Kruphix - it's a Howling Mine that lets you draw first, regardless of whether it sees play in standard (turbo fog maybe?) it'll be a favorite of casual players for years to come.
Eidolon of the Great Revel - it's Pyrostatic Pillar on a stick, Pillar was a good sideboard for many red decks in many formats and this will be too, quality hate bears always see some love.
Iroas, God of Victory - It doesn't really have a place but the Pyreheart Wolf ability and the Dolmen Gate ability make for a pretty effective boost in aggro vs. aggro/midrange matchups and it's in the right colors to easily trigger the devotion (and a 7/4 indestructible creature for 4 is a pretty good deal). Plus it's a mythic and a God, usually good enough to keep it above bulk.
Ajani, Mentor of Heroes - It doesn't have a home, costs 5 and doesn't protect itself but it does have 2 [+] abilities, provides a constant stream of card advantage and it's ultimate of gaining 100 life is hard for many decks to deal with. Plus it's a planeswalker and even if it doesn't make waves in standard that is usually enough to save it from being bulk (a planeswalker has to be truly bad like Tibalt, the Fiend-Blooded to hit bulk levels).
Temple of Epiphany and Temple of Malady - The scry lands are known quantities, these are great cards which will open up new color combinations to standard and boost the landbased of many decks. No chance of being bulk (at least not while they are in standard).
Hall of Triumph - it's a 3cc legendary colorless artifact Honor the Pure for the color of your choice, that's a pretty good thing, anthem effects are always popular and this one gives white weenie a 2nd one (on top of Spear of Heliod) and should see a fair amount of casual love too.
Godsend - it's an affordable to cast and equip piece of equipment with potent abilities and the "benefit" of counting towards white devotion, it's also a mythic with a cool name and cool art (which never hurts), all of this means that even though it's got drawbacks (like being legendary) and may not be a staple anywhere it should at the least settle at an above bulk rate.
Possibly Better than Bulk:
Dawnbringer Charioteers - it starts out as a Seraph of Dawn (a card which was a limited powerhouse and that saw some sideboard play) but with a heroic trigger or two it turns into a huge flying lifelinked angelic threat and cards like Exalted Angel, Baneslayer Angel etc. have been powerhouses over the years. The heroic aspect and the fact that this is the white promo rare however might cause this to become bulk even if it ends up being playable.
Sage of Hours - it's a mythic, it a "grow" creature in mono blue and it can give you extra turns (arbitrarily large numbers of them in the right deck) all of this adds up to a card which while probably not constructed viable should be a casual favorite and hopefully stay above bulk thanks to that and being mythic (similar to Lighthouse Chronologist - a card currently going for $8 or so despite seeing not constructed play).
Dictate of the Twin Gods - I don't see this getting there in standard thanks to having to compete for a slot with Stormbreath Dragon but Furnace of Rath effects are popular and one that can be used as a combat trick or as an end of opponents turn play (to be followed by a hand full of burn to the head) is a powerful effect and sure to be popular in casual circles if nothing else.
Eidolon of Blossoms - A cantripping 4cc 2/2 enchantress, it probably isn't good enough for constructed but that won't stop heaps of people giving it a try and even failing constructed enchantress gets a lot of casual love which could keep this above bulk (if only barely).
Keranos, God of the Storms - Doesn't really have a home, the devotion part and resulting creature is lackluster by God standards and which triggers between draw and bolt is down to chance (outside of scry setups), that said it is a mythic and God and even at 5 mana reusable advantage engines are powerful things so hopefully it'll be above bulk.
So that's currently 8 definitely above bulk and 5 possibly above bulk (the remaining 6 are bulk to my mind although if we get enough viable enchantment creatures Extinguish All Hope might stand a chance). That's not bad out of only 19 rares/mythics so far, but I do find it a bit depressing that at the moment for long term value/self play value I would probably rather open one of the scry lands than any other rare or mythic since there doesn't seem to be a real chase card of the set yet (although opening a God or Ajani and trading it away while it's at overhyped prices is definitely worthwhile) and most of the above bulk cards feel like they are only just above bulk (get your pack value back level).
Any opinions? Do you think I got anything wrong and why?
Machius proudly supports R_E's right to Rumour!
Chandra, Torch of Defiance - Oops! All Chandras.
Prime Speaker Zegana - Draw for Power.
Pir & Toothy - Counterpalooza.
Arcades, the Strategist - Another Brick in the Wall.
Zacama, Primal Calamity - Calamity of Double Mana.
Edgar Markov - Vampires Don't Die.
Child of Alara - Dreamcrusher.
Also, I don't see it as unfortunate that Scrylands are the best possible open; playable dual lands have often been the hallmark of desirable Rares (especially before the creation of the Mythic Rarity), and we can only hope that never changes.
This set seems like it will be pretty solid, all of the Gods will have some value, and most, if not all, of the Dictates will be solid, as well as the scrylands and Ajani. Don't hold out much hope for Dawnbringer Charioteers, I think that one is about as bulk as it gets.
Machius proudly supports R_E's right to Rumour!
Deicide is a good SB card and usually a strict upgrade from Revoke Existence.
Dictate of Erebos is very good in EDH. Grave Pact has gotten expensive and its pretty similar.
Black has access to better creature removal, but this is pretty good for White.
Monsters gets wrecked pretty hard by it,
Jarad hates it,
and Heroic has to keep their critters small enough to avoid it.
It's not going to make major waves,
but I'm sure WR GW and WU will find a use for it.
Reprint Stasis!
Control needs more love.
EDH:
Momir Vig, Simic Visionary
Melek, Izzet Paragon
Oona, Queen of the Fae
Bruna, Light of Alabaster
Gisela, Blade of Goldnight
Rhys the Redeemed
Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord
Sen Triplets
The Mimeoplasm
WUBRGSliver OverlordGRBUW
WUBRGSliver Hivelord(Superfriends)GRBUW
Reprisal is a very solid card that's sure to see some play, the main reasons I didn't add it was the fact that even in mono white it has a fair bit of competition (Last Breath, Celestial Flare and most importantly Banishing Light) and the fact that it's a reprint (although it's admittedly been ages since it was last in standard).
@TwinSais:
Do you have a reason that Pharika should be classified bulk? I know i'm in the minority in terms of rating it as highly as I do (maybe it should be in the possibly category), but even at the low end it's still a mythic and a god (and the ability becomes a lot better in casual/EDH multiplayer where giving snakes can be a good political move) and that seems unlikely to slide into bulk status (worth less than the value of a booster pack).
I agree on the other 2 which is why they are in the possibly category not unlisted as bulk. But i'm not convinced that Deicide has it in it to maintain a value better than bulk. Sideboard cards that are standard exclusive tend to have problems. I will upgrade Dictate of Erebos though, you are right the casual appeal of Grave Pact style cards is huge even if the cost pretty much means it'll never make it in standard.
Machius proudly supports R_E's right to Rumour!
I'm not sure exactly what your criteria is, but I'm guessing the majority of the cards (at least rares) listed will be one dollar cards in a few months.
The criteria is pretty simple, something is better than bulk if it makes the pack it came in worthwhile and/or would appear in an actual sales shelf/folder instead of just in a bulk rares box. And yeah it's a rare thing which is why I did a list, if nothing else it also helps me evaluate if I should buy a box or not.
Machius proudly supports R_E's right to Rumour!