[M10] Finding Print Runs

  • #1
    As my wife and I are about to open a box together for the first time, and I being a statistician and she being as weird as me (just in other ways), we decided that we would try analyzing the common print runs when we open our box.

    The idea for my finding print runs is as follows.

    If two cards are next to each other in a run, then they would more often be in the same pack. Hence, across many many packs those cards would be more highly "correlated" then cards that are in different runs (rock, paper, scissors) or cards that are not next to each other in the run. (This is based entirely on what I have read about people finding out print runs)

    Hence I am planning to write a program to attempt to find these "correlation" chains which, I believe, should lead to "print runs".

    The interesting thing about this method of finding print runs is that order in which I get packs or open them does not matter; they do not need to be from the same box or even the same shipment.

    Hence my request, if there is interest, is to have people tell me which commons they have in packs as they open them (not including foils) so that way I have more information to try and find the runs. Then I would post my findings here on the site.

    (Aside: I have played a total of 4 games for DCI ranking in my life, didn't much care for the experience, and therefore my reason is not to "win" at drafts; my reason for doing this is just to see if it is possible to do so because the mathematics of it interests me).
    -----------------
    Proud Member of People for the Ethical Treatment of Numbers
  • #2
    There are some Youtube videos that may help you in your quest, I know there was one guy who posted a "I cracked the code" type of thing on there. But really, anyone who knows a print run could tell you this so many people just poo-poo'd him.
    www.mtgotraders.com - Enter Code PANDAPAYPAL for 8% off!
    www.CapeFearGames.com - Enter Code PANDA for 5% off!
    Limit of 1 coupon per order
  • #3
    If you want to know rare print runs, you also need to log the sequence in which you open your packs out of the box. I'm not sure if the order would go down each stack or across each layer but if you keep all the cards logged with references to which pack they belonged to, you could find rare orders based off which pack led to which other pack (based on commons/uncommons). It's never going to be an exact science but you should be able to predict with a relatively high success rate.

    The goal would either be to open the first pack and then know exactly which pack (if any) in the box has the rare you want to open or to simply know which card was drafted by the person before you. I know people do this already and it seems pretty shifty.
  • #4
    This would be handy to have as an avid Limited player, not that I think it will make a notable difference in my draft strategy. I'll PM you my common runs after I open my box.
    DCI Level 2 Judge
  • #5
    Thank you
    -----------------
    Proud Member of People for the Ethical Treatment of Numbers
  • #6
    Certainly an interesting idea. Good luck to your sir. I'll be happy to see the outcome of this.


    Thanks to Spiderboy4 of High~light Studios for the awesome sig.


    A wise man talks when he has something to say. A fool talks because he has to say something.

    Quote from Yamikiri
    Well, that's the internet for you. Anonymity + Internet = ☺☺☺☺wad.

    Looking for a card alterer that takes commissions specifically on a blank playmat. PM me please.
  • #7
    judging from my booster box, the common runs might be easy enough to work out but don't even TRY to work out the rare runs. I got 2-ofs of 3 different rares (Twincast, Ball Lightning and the U/B Dual) which I've never had happen in a box before.
    Quote from Pete Venters »
    I couldn't have put it better myself.
  • #8
    Two guys at my store opened the exact same rares in two jap m10 boxes, minus a foil ball lightning. I also noticed mythics are more common to see, as I got a ton in my box.
  • #9
    I also noticed a VERY high rate of Mythics at the prerelease. I wonder if they changed the print rate without telling anyone.
    DCI Level 2 Judge
  • #10
    I got 5 in my box, which is a 1 in 7 ratio just like it's meant to be
    Quote from Pete Venters »
    I couldn't have put it better myself.
  • #11
    Quote from KPDaly16
    I also noticed a VERY high rate of Mythics at the prerelease. I wonder if they changed the print rate without telling anyone.


    As wizards has said, mythics would be 1 in 8 packs or approx 4.5 per box on a true average basis. Out of 34 boxes I have openned thus far Ive openned the 4.5 average per box plus about 5 extra, so Im a little above the curve at the moment, but thats out of 34 boxes, so no, mythics are still the usual 1 in 8 packs that they always have been.
  • #12
    A man by the name of Ross Edwards was written an excellent book called "The Card Wizards Black Book""The Card Wizards Black Book" about this very subject. He has cracked 10ths & Shards run. Small blocks tend to be uneven & hence unmappable although he is trying to find the rare distribution. He has a Youtube channel at: http://www.youtube.com/profile?user=recardwizard&view=videos.

    The packs are put down in a pattern going from left-right, left-right like I show in the excel sheet. There is one row in each box that is always shifted up or down from where it is supposed to be.
    ATTACHMENTS
    • Booster Box


    Thanks to mchief111 for the awesome sig.

    Quote from SKRules
    Winning + Having Fun > Losing + Having Fun


    If you want to learn how to play Momir Basic IRL learn how here.

    Sign up for Dropbox and we both get extra storage for free: http://db.tt/NXZuNHmr
  • #13
    He has the Coldsnap print map up for free at: http://www.completechampion.com/
    I've attached it for you to save you the trouble of waiting for the email
    ATTACHMENTS
    • black_book_csp


    Thanks to mchief111 for the awesome sig.

    Quote from SKRules
    Winning + Having Fun > Losing + Having Fun


    If you want to learn how to play Momir Basic IRL learn how here.

    Sign up for Dropbox and we both get extra storage for free: http://db.tt/NXZuNHmr
  • #14
    ^
    I'm just waiting for him to release M10 already! XD

    Side note though the OP was trying to deduce COMMON print runs if I'm reading this right, so much harder to do!
  • #15
    I will add, with regard to M10, that distribution of rares/mythics seems to be less random than previous sets. At our table for sealed, three of us opened Djinn of Wishes, two of us had the new Time Walk (although one was foil) and two of us had Ajani. I can't really say how many other multiples there were for rares/mythics, but this certainly supports the less random distribution model.

    I work for a the print production branch of a large company and although we don't produce playing cards or other randomized card stock items, we do collate. The process used for ccgs/sports cards (randomized) and things such as recipe cards (not randomezed) are totally different. For both, they print full sheets, sometimes having a variety imposed, sometimes having full sheets of a single item. This depends on volume. Despite the large volume Magic cards are printed in, I'm under the impression they still impose a variety. When the sheets come off the press and dry, they are cut down into stacks all containing the same items. They are likely fed through the die cutter prior to being collated. The feeding of the collating machine must follow a pretty strict process to ensure the cards are evenly distributed. These days, there is likely a program that can be adjusted to different random/non-random settings. If they wanted, they could be very precise in how packs were built and you would get boxes that were almost identical. I tend to think that they play with these settings to get a more random distribution which results in duplicate rares/mythics as often as it results in a truly random set of cards.
  • #16
    Someone should create a site like http://wiitracker.nintendo-scene.com/search.php which lets people input data from their wii's to determine what chip they have inside of it. It's a huge database and most likely has errors, but it uses percentages to get an idea of what is more accurate.

    If this is done with magic i think we could get some good data on rare print runs.
  • #17
    Well, I will have a box Monday so I will PM the data to the right people. (to lazy currently to look up who founded the thread)
  • #18
    If it helps any, the set uses the same layout as SoA for mapping boxes, so it shouldn't be as difficult to map (but maybe not as easy as 10th).

    IMHO, I never map anything because I find that I either A) buy singles or B) just buy an entire box at once.
  • #19
    My box had a very good distribution, one of the best I've opened. I had at least a playset of each common, 1-3 of each uncommon, 5 Mythics with one being foil, and only one rare did I have more than one copies. The box I opened before this was a Kamigawa box I found for cheap, and double rares were everywhere in that box, and some uncommons I didn't pull a single copy.
    www.mtgotraders.com - Enter Code PANDAPAYPAL for 8% off!
    www.CapeFearGames.com - Enter Code PANDA for 5% off!
    Limit of 1 coupon per order
  • #20
    Thank you so far for those who have sent their commons from their opened packs.

    Just to restate, I am not using the methods that have been talked about in the past but my own method that does not require packs to be in any order, that way if I get info about the commons opened in any pack (not including foils) I can use that information.
    -----------------
    Proud Member of People for the Ethical Treatment of Numbers
  • #21
    The M10 common print runs have already been calculated:

    http://www.davef139.com/2010.php

    This is courtesy of forum member davef139.

    Uncommon runs are a lot harder to figure out and a lot less useful in draft situations. Rare runs are useless since you never know which order the packs were pulled and distributed in.
  • #22
    I have also noticed a strong correlation for the possibility of rare print runs in M10. At my last sealed event, I opened a Garruk, a Great Sable Stag, another good green rare (which unfortunately escapes my memory right now), and a Silence. I was looking through someone else's draft deck later and noticed they had the same 3 green rares as me. I asked them if they opened anything else significant, and they said they opened a Silence. Supposedly at one of the other tables, two people sitting next to each other also opened 5 of the same rares (out of 6), though I never found out which.

    I would also be greatly interested in mapping out a rare print run for M10. I already have a spreadsheet of the rares from the box I opened yesterday. If anyone has more data to collaborate, by all means send me a PM.

    -Numegil
    Don't click here!
    (\__/)
    (='.'=)This is Bunny. Copy and paste bunny into your
    (")_(")signature to help him gain world domination!

  • #23
    Quote from android
    I will add, with regard to M10, that distribution of rares/mythics seems to be less random than previous sets. At our table for sealed, three of us opened Djinn of Wishes, two of us had the new Time Walk (although one was foil) and two of us had Ajani. I can't really say how many other multiples there were for rares/mythics, but this certainly supports the less random distribution model.

    I work for a the print production branch of a large company and although we don't produce playing cards or other randomized card stock items, we do collate. The process used for ccgs/sports cards (randomized) and things such as recipe cards (not randomezed) are totally different. For both, they print full sheets, sometimes having a variety imposed, sometimes having full sheets of a single item. This depends on volume. Despite the large volume Magic cards are printed in, I'm under the impression they still impose a variety. When the sheets come off the press and dry, they are cut down into stacks all containing the same items. They are likely fed through the die cutter prior to being collated. The feeding of the collating machine must follow a pretty strict process to ensure the cards are evenly distributed. These days, there is likely a program that can be adjusted to different random/non-random settings. If they wanted, they could be very precise in how packs were built and you would get boxes that were almost identical. I tend to think that they play with these settings to get a more random distribution which results in duplicate rares/mythics as often as it results in a truly random set of cards.


    I am going to toss in a couple cents here... The packs are ZERO precent random. I am not sure if anyone else noticed, but there are 2-D barcodes on each booster pack. Those allow Wizards to track what cards are in a pack and likely help with any claims of damage/problem with the product. It also helps them quickly track the root source of any printing problems (which plant is ****ing up) and how many packs could be effected.

    Big companies do this when they produce the same thing in more than one place so that if there is a recall (god forbid), they won't have to recall everything (like that print run of fourth edition with the now $5000 misprint of Hurricane that made the card frame blue), they can just recall the boxes/packs that are ****ed up (like when they recall only select SUVs, baby cribs, jars of Peanut butter, etc.).

    I will say that the variation between the common runs is much higher than the rare runs just by the nature of how many different ways the commons can be combined (one per pack vs 10 per pack makes a big difference).
  • #24
    Does anybody has the Magic 2010 Rare Print Run ... like in the Card Wizard's Black Book?

    I need them, because I'm going to buy some M10 dispalys... pls help me!

    Thanks..

    greetings: HotGoblin
  • #25
    Quote from HotGoblin
    Does anybody has the Magic 2010 Rare Print Run ... like in the Card Wizard's Black Book?

    I need them, because I'm going to buy some M10 dispalys... pls help me!

    Thanks..

    greetings: HotGoblin

    And what exactly are you going to do with packs containing crap rares?
  • To post a comment, please or register a new account.
Posts Quoted:
Reply
Clear All Quotes