I was curious how much you’d “save” with the 10% off, so I took a look at 2020 as a base.
Here are the sets available during that time period, as well as their price and the number of cards included:
Year of the Rat; $39.99; 8 cards
Theros Stargazing Volumes I-V; $39.99 each or $149.99 for all five; between 3 and 15 cards
International Women’s Day; $49.99; 5 cards
Thalia – Beyond the Helvault; $29.99; 4 cards
April Fools; $0.00; 4 cards (only game stores could get these, but those were gifts too)
The Godzilla Lands; $29.99; 5 cards
*Full Sleeves: The Tattoo Pack; $29.99; 5 cards
*Can You Feel with a Heart of Steel?; $39.99; 3 cards
*The Path Not Traveled; $39.99; 4 cards
*Mountain, Go; $29.99; 4 cards
*Ornithological Studies; $29.99; 5 cards
(* These sets were part of the Summer Superdrop, and thus could be combined for $169.95, which gives 1 random fetch land from the Secret Lair Ultimate Edition)
Prime Slime; $29.99; 5 cards
Every Dog Has Its Day; $29.99 (non-foil), or $39.99 (foil); 4 cards
Happy Yargle Day!; $29.99 (non-foil), or $39.99 (foil); 5 cards
Showcase: Zendikar Revisited; $29.99 (non-foil), or $39.99 (foil); 5 cards
(** These sets were part of the Secret Lair Secretversary, and thus could be bundled in one of three ways: $99.99 for all non-foil sets; $139.99 for all foil sets; $229.99 for all sets)
So, to get absolutely everything from the 2020 Secret Lairs, bundling where possible and not accounting for taxes and shipping, you spend $1,049.81. This nets you 156 cards, in a mix of foils and non-foils, and not counting “secrets” like the Stained-Glass Planeswalkers.
If you weren’t getting both version of the sets available in foil and non-foil, this lowers to either $899.83 (for foils) or $839.83 (for non-foils) and 123 cards.
Now, we don’t know exactly what WotC is going to do as far as the subscription goes. They could choose to bundle things up, or they could choose to do it individually. They may charge for both foil and non-foil, or they may just leave it at one. They may force subscribers to buy everything, or they may allow you to skip on Secret Lairs you don’t want. We don’t know.
Let’s assume the worst: signing up for this charges you the highest amount I listed. It bundles some together, but double dips on foils and non-foils.
A 10% discount saves you…$104.98.
Assuming the 4 “subscriber only” secret lairs cost $39.99 a piece, that 10% discount jumps up to…$120.98.
Now, to be excessively fair, free shipping will likely drive those numbers a little closer to the cost of the subscription. But as it stands, paying $149 ($12.42 a month) for a 10% discount does not pay for itself. Not unless WotC prints more Secret Lairs this year than they did last year, and signs aren’t looking great there. By this time last year, we’d already had 2 more Secret Lairs than the current count.
This is all assuming that the shipping, early access, and merch are worth $0
This is all assuming that the shipping, early access, and merch are worth $0
I did explicitly say in that final paragraph that free shipping would likely drive that price closer to the cost of the subscription.
Early Access may as well be $0, however. Unless WotC decides that early access is also the only access for a product they've been printing to demand, which, hey, they could do.
I didn't see anything in the thread about merch, so, I don't know. Did it specify that the merch would be free, or is it just something unique that you get to buy if you have a subscription?
EDIT: To be clear, I was also specifically responding to the idea that the 10% discount alone was worth the price of admission, like you said earlier.
This is all assuming that the shipping, early access, and merch are worth $0
I did explicitly say in that final paragraph that free shipping would likely drive that price closer to the cost of the subscription.
Early Access may as well be $0, however. Unless WotC decides that early access is also the only access for a product they've been printing to demand, which, hey, they could do.
I didn't see anything in the thread about merch, so, I don't know. Did it specify that the merch would be free, or is it just something unique that you get to buy if you have a subscription?
EDIT: To be clear, I was also specifically responding to the idea that the 10% discount alone was worth the price of admission, like you said earlier.
Meh, it also feels like they do more and more of these each year. This year being behind doesn't mean much since these typically drop in batches. I'm sure once actual details of this arrive it'll be easier to evaluate.
That early access is worth quite a bit. If I can get the product to resell before others, it sells for more. Reselling SLs is already pretty profitable overall,and pretty easy, especially in the days immediately following the first deliveries.
Meh, it also feels like they do more and more of these each year. This year being behind doesn't mean much since these typically drop in batches. I'm sure once actual details of this arrive it'll be easier to evaluate.
That early access is worth quite a bit. If I can get the product to resell before others, it sells for more. Reselling SLs is already pretty profitable overall,and pretty easy, especially in the days immediately following the first deliveries.
That's assuming you get the product first and not just "Get to order the product first, with everything shipping at once." I also wasn't assuming purchasing for turning purposes, but I suppose that's on me.
They certainly create more product every year, as I've listed in another thread, but Secret Lairs have only been around since 2019. 2020 is the best data we can work off of, and we're already a third of the way through the year. Theros Stargazing and Secret Lair Drop: Smitten were comparable sets of five, as are Secret Lair: International Women's Day and Secret Lair: Black is Magic (being more charity based drops). But by this point last year, we'd also had the Year of the Rat, and Thalia. If Strixhaven only gets one Secret Lair, it'll be comparable to the Godzilla Lands Secret Lair.
You also made me curious again, so let’s toss in some extra math. I bought one Secret Lair in 2020. Assuming my receipt is correct, it cost 5 dollars to ship to me. I’m in the Midwest, so it probably costs more to ship to the East Coast, but I can only work with the information I have.
Assuming that every box costs 5 dollars to ship, with a 10% discount, I would need to buy 18 Secret Lairs to exceed the cost of the Subscription. Specifically going off of my list: Year of the Rat through non-foil Happy Yargle Day!, purchasing both foil and non-foil, gets me to $150 in discounts and free shipping.
From foil "Happy Yargle Day!" onwards, the savings add up to $110.
EDIT: Missed 3 places where shipping could have been added, upping the savings at the end from $95 to $110.
Meh, it also feels like they do more and more of these each year. This year being behind doesn't mean much since these typically drop in batches. I'm sure once actual details of this arrive it'll be easier to evaluate.
That early access is worth quite a bit. If I can get the product to resell before others, it sells for more. Reselling SLs is already pretty profitable overall,and pretty easy, especially in the days immediately following the first deliveries.
That's assuming you get the product first and not just "Get to order the product first, with everything shipping at once." I also wasn't assuming purchasing for turning purposes, but I suppose that's on me.
They certainly create more product every year, as I've listed in another thread, but Secret Lairs have only been around since 2019. 2020 is the best data we can work off of, and we're already a third of the way through the year. Theros Stargazing and Secret Lair Drop: Smitten were comparable sets of five, as are Secret Lair: International Women's Day and Secret Lair: Black is Magic (being more charity based drops). But by this point last year, we'd also had the Year of the Rat, and Thalia. If Strixhaven only gets one Secret Lair, it'll be comparable to the Godzilla Lands Secret Lair.
You also made me curious again, so let’s toss in some extra math. I bought one Secret Lair in 2020. Assuming my receipt is correct, it cost 5 dollars to ship to me. I’m in the Midwest, so it probably costs more to ship to the East Coast, but I can only work with the information I have.
Assuming that every box costs 5 dollars to ship, with a 10% discount, I would need to buy 18 Secret Lairs to exceed the cost of the Subscription. Specifically going off of my list: Year of the Rat through non-foil Happy Yargle Day!, purchasing both foil and non-foil, gets me to $150 in discounts and free shipping.
From foil "Happy Yargle Day!" onwards, the savings add up to $110.
EDIT: Missed 3 places where shipping could have been added, upping the savings at the end from $95 to $110.
That's a lot of assumptions based off of a rumor started by a hypothetical survey that you heard about second hand. But sure.
That's a lot of assumptions based off of a rumor started by a hypothetical survey that you heard about second hand. But sure.
Well, damn, guess you got me there. This is the "only talk about verified things and don't assume anything" forum. Thanks for showing me the error of my ways. I will correct this grave mistake in the future.
That's a lot of assumptions based off of a rumor started by a hypothetical survey that you heard about second hand. But sure.
Well, damn, guess you got me there. This is the "only talk about verified things and don't assume anything" forum. Thanks for showing me the error of my ways. I will correct this grave mistake in the future.
It was an observation, not a judgment. Lower your temperature, young one.
Meh, it also feels like they do more and more of these each year. This year being behind doesn't mean much since these typically drop in batches. I'm sure once actual details of this arrive it'll be easier to evaluate.
That early access is worth quite a bit. If I can get the product to resell before others, it sells for more. Reselling SLs is already pretty profitable overall,and pretty easy, especially in the days immediately following the first deliveries.
That's assuming you get the product first and not just "Get to order the product first, with everything shipping at once." I also wasn't assuming purchasing for turning purposes, but I suppose that's on me.
They certainly create more product every year, as I've listed in another thread, but Secret Lairs have only been around since 2019. 2020 is the best data we can work off of, and we're already a third of the way through the year. Theros Stargazing and Secret Lair Drop: Smitten were comparable sets of five, as are Secret Lair: International Women's Day and Secret Lair: Black is Magic (being more charity based drops). But by this point last year, we'd also had the Year of the Rat, and Thalia. If Strixhaven only gets one Secret Lair, it'll be comparable to the Godzilla Lands Secret Lair.
You also made me curious again, so let’s toss in some extra math. I bought one Secret Lair in 2020. Assuming my receipt is correct, it cost 5 dollars to ship to me. I’m in the Midwest, so it probably costs more to ship to the East Coast, but I can only work with the information I have.
Assuming that every box costs 5 dollars to ship, with a 10% discount, I would need to buy 18 Secret Lairs to exceed the cost of the Subscription. Specifically going off of my list: Year of the Rat through non-foil Happy Yargle Day!, purchasing both foil and non-foil, gets me to $150 in discounts and free shipping.
From foil "Happy Yargle Day!" onwards, the savings add up to $110.
EDIT: Missed 3 places where shipping could have been added, upping the savings at the end from $95 to $110.
I for one appreciate ThyLordQ's attempts to quantify this in some realm as an estimate. I guess it does depend on the definition of "Early Access" and if that means early reservation or early shipped, but I'm not sure if we should approach this subscription series from the scalper angle (as it def would most likely be profitable in long term, even if short sale isn't), but from the average consumer who is buying it to get the cards and feel like the subscription savings make the subscription worth it.
But again, all these numbers will change, but with what data we got, not a bad spot to start conversations with.
I'm probably not going to do either a membership or subscription. I only bought two of these, one for one of the cards I needed, and another to keep unopened (Walking Dead), but what I do know is I'm going to be pissed if they do a Slivers Secret Lair only available to those who have a membership or subscription.
As long as there are people that dont order these and still pay double or more on ebay to get them "later" , people will flip them for money.
The number of people that are so stupid are not crazy big, so if you know some people with money and less intelligence you can make some bucks.
But A LOT of people ordered these to make a profit and could not sell them at all, and made a loss.
A lot of these Secret Lairs packs are sold for less than the price (including shipping) that WotC is asking for , especially singles (as more often than not there is just 1 card thats particularly interesting, and all the others are total junk).
----
Like with all products they tend to throw the best stuff away early , then the product gets watered down till nobody buys it anymore ... happens with basically any special product Wotc has ever produced and is already showing in Secret Lair as well.
If you get super fast and cheap shipping of the product its more or less trivial to sell for a margin of profit.
If you however need to wait months till you get your order, then flipping the product becomes a dangerous investment (especially if the amount you order is a higher amount).
A lot of these Secret Lairs packs are sold for less than the price (including shipping) that WotC is asking for , especially singles (as more often than not there is just 1 card thats particularly interesting, and all the others are total junk).
For what its worth, that's actually not accurate. Yes, if you only purchase a single lair and pay shipping, the ROI is a lot lower, but since quite a few have come with bundle discounts and you get free shipping if your order is over $99, only two are currently less (based on TCG Market) than their original purchase price: Path Not Travelled, Mountains Go
Now the number that you wouldn't profit from after ebay fees and shipping is higher, but several have also doubled or more in value at the same time. Its interesting to see what see values have done, like how packs of four of the same card haven't done well, while OMG Kitties is one of the highest value ones there is even though most people were really "meh" about it at release.
I can legitimately say this is the dumbest thing I have ever seen
I guaranteed the 2 biggest problems here is people don’t want a lair and are forced to get it and B - member exclusive lairs if they are mechanically unique cards who ever does secret lairs needs to be fired.
the only secret lair I got was the theros gods in constellation form and in the form of singles from kaleidoscope killers (the third could potentially be the dinosaur one coming up but only if Gishath and Zacama are in it.)
any way to do this the right way I say give a severe discount for game stores so they can have access to these cards easier
That early access is worth quite a bit. If I can get the product to resell before others, it sells for more. Reselling SLs is already pretty profitable overall,and pretty easy, especially in the days immediately following the first deliveries.
Or it works in the reverse and less will buy it knowing full well they will be able to find it cheaper from the direct seller a little later.
Just to add even more insult to injury (no pun intended) Wizards of the Coast / Hasbro has decided to print a Heroes of the Realm card called and I kid you not Keeper of the Secret Lair: http://mythicspoiler.com/mtg/cards/keeperofthesecretlair.html. It's a 2/1 Legendary Merfolk Rogue for 1U with Flash that says you may cast Secret Lair spells as though they had Flash and Secret Lair spells also cost 1 less to cast. If that isn't lazy and corporate I don't know what is. Mark Rosewater stated that cards from the Heroes of the Realm sets are simply meant to be read not played as there will only be 4 copies of these cards printed in existence worldwide.
So instead of "look at this crazy card" it's "good job everyone, we raised stocks 13.3% with the release of 9 new products for our Secret Lair product line. Please enjoy this complimentary piece of cardboard." I feel sorry for Cure for the Common Game on YouTube since he's made it his mission to build a EDH / Commander deck off of EVERY Legendary Creature ever printed and after the Walking Dead Secret Lairs this just feels like a HUGE slap in the face. There's been other Legendary Creatures printed for Heroes of the Realm in the past with limited printings for them which he was unable to build decks for so that's a given I guess.
"Restriction breeds creativity." - Sheldon Menery on EDH / Commander in Magic: The Gathering
"Cancel Culture is the real reason why everyone's not allowed to have nice things anymore." - Anonymous
"For what will it profit a man if he gains the whole world, and loses his own soul?" - Mark 8:36
"Most men and women will grow up to love their servitude and will never dream of revolution." - Aldous Huxley, Brave New World
"Every life decision is always a risk / reward proposition." - Sanjay Gupta
Just to add even more insult to injury (no pun intended) Wizards of the Coast / Hasbro has decided to print a Heroes of the Realm card called and I kid you not Keeper of the Secret Lair: http://mythicspoiler.com/mtg/cards/keeperofthesecretlair.html. It's a 2/1 Legendary Merfolk Rogue for 1U with Flash that says you may cast Secret Lair spells as though they had Flash and Secret Lair spells also cost 1 less to cast. If that isn't lazy and corporate I don't know what is. Mark Rosewater stated that cards from the Heroes of the Realm sets are simply meant to be read not played as there will only be 4 copies of these cards printed in existence worldwide.
So instead of "look at this crazy card" it's "good job everyone, we raised stocks 13.3% with the release of 9 new products for our Secret Lair product line. Please enjoy this complimentary piece of cardboard." I feel sorry for Cure for the Common Game on YouTube since he's made it his mission to build a EDH / Commander deck off of EVERY Legendary Creature ever printed and after the Walking Dead Secret Lairs this just feels like a HUGE slap in the face. There's been other Legendary Creatures printed for Heroes of the Realm in the past with limited printings for them which he was unable to build decks for so that's a given I guess.
Not like these would be legal anywhere, they don't even have the Magic card back.
Just to add even more insult to injury (no pun intended) Wizards of the Coast / Hasbro has decided to print a Heroes of the Realm card called and I kid you not Keeper of the Secret Lair: http://mythicspoiler.com/mtg/cards/keeperofthesecretlair.html. It's a 2/1 Legendary Merfolk Rogue for 1U with Flash that says you may cast Secret Lair spells as though they had Flash and Secret Lair spells also cost 1 less to cast. If that isn't lazy and corporate I don't know what is. Mark Rosewater stated that cards from the Heroes of the Realm sets are simply meant to be read not played as there will only be 4 copies of these cards printed in existence worldwide.
So instead of "look at this crazy card" it's "good job everyone, we raised stocks 13.3% with the release of 9 new products for our Secret Lair product line. Please enjoy this complimentary piece of cardboard." I feel sorry for Cure for the Common Game on YouTube since he's made it his mission to build a EDH / Commander deck off of EVERY Legendary Creature ever printed and after the Walking Dead Secret Lairs this just feels like a HUGE slap in the face. There's been other Legendary Creatures printed for Heroes of the Realm in the past with limited printings for them which he was unable to build decks for so that's a given I guess.
Not like these would be legal anywhere, they don't even have the Magic card back.
If they did I can imagine it would cause quite an uproar like how the Walking Dead Secret Lair cards are black bordered with the Magic card back making them officially legal for Legacy, Vintage, and EDH / Commander.
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America Bless Christ Jesus
"Restriction breeds creativity." - Sheldon Menery on EDH / Commander in Magic: The Gathering
"Cancel Culture is the real reason why everyone's not allowed to have nice things anymore." - Anonymous
"For what will it profit a man if he gains the whole world, and loses his own soul?" - Mark 8:36
"Most men and women will grow up to love their servitude and will never dream of revolution." - Aldous Huxley, Brave New World
"Every life decision is always a risk / reward proposition." - Sanjay Gupta
Just to add even more insult to injury (no pun intended) Wizards of the Coast / Hasbro has decided to print a Heroes of the Realm card called and I kid you not Keeper of the Secret Lair: http://mythicspoiler.com/mtg/cards/keeperofthesecretlair.html. It's a 2/1 Legendary Merfolk Rogue for 1U with Flash that says you may cast Secret Lair spells as though they had Flash and Secret Lair spells also cost 1 less to cast. If that isn't lazy and corporate I don't know what is. Mark Rosewater stated that cards from the Heroes of the Realm sets are simply meant to be read not played as there will only be 4 copies of these cards printed in existence worldwide.
So instead of "look at this crazy card" it's "good job everyone, we raised stocks 13.3% with the release of 9 new products for our Secret Lair product line. Please enjoy this complimentary piece of cardboard." I feel sorry for Cure for the Common Game on YouTube since he's made it his mission to build a EDH / Commander deck off of EVERY Legendary Creature ever printed and after the Walking Dead Secret Lairs this just feels like a HUGE slap in the face. There's been other Legendary Creatures printed for Heroes of the Realm in the past with limited printings for them which he was unable to build decks for so that's a given I guess.
Imagine someone attaining all four of these and pulling a Kaiba by destroying one and automatically bring up the price of the other three. For that matter watch them put it on a stream/video where they make money on the video and people actually paying them to destroy the card.
While this card and how it's being done is a little gross, really should have been a company wide gift, really all that will happen here is an extreme collectors item and in the end I really don't care about this specifically, though I do wonder if they'll continue doing things like this and we do end up with a Yugioh anime situation and someone has the best card that dominates.
Really got be stretching to be upset at customs, non-legal cards made as thank you gifts.
Private Mod Note
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“There are no weak Jews. I am descended from those who wrestle angels and kill giants. We were chosen by God. You were chosen by a pathetic little man who can't seem to grow a full mustache"
"You can tell how dumb someone is by how they use Mary Sue"
How does one get surveys from WOTC these days? I used to take surveys on the mothership homepage after each set, but it's been years since I saw one.
This survey was sent out to people who have bought secret lairs. The past few have just generally been online and I discovered them when someone posted on the forum with a link.
As far as this survey:
1. Subscription: Flat out not worth it unless you were planning to get everything anyway. The lack of shipping costs will basically make 1-2 pairs effectively free each year but I’m a bit too selective.
2. Membership: Not worth it for me at the $200-250 price point. The 10% discount only really works out if you plan to buy multiple sets of these lairs (going on past data at least). At the $99 value, I would absolutely jump in as I’m willing to bet that the exclusive releases in the first year will be godly (as Wizards tends to put in extra value when doing things for the first time) to lure in people who missed out the first time (I’m expecting some top-tier offers like imperial seal or a set of all five allied fetches) Will likely jump out the moment the value is gone, though.
Note 1: If wizards ever produces enough secret lairs that it basically becomes an offer of the week program, I would join a $99 membership program even with ho-hum exclusives as the lack of shipping costs is more likely to be cancelled out.
Note 2: The survey asks if special gifts would be an incentive. If Wizards is willing to send out monthly promos to people in the membership program or if membership unlocks a second, superior insert card (such as Lucille or the stained glass walkers) in secret lairs, I would likewise be inclined to keep membership.
I've bought almost every Secret Lair and I did not get sent this survey.
However, since I generally just buy one of each, not having to pay shipping (like €7.5 each time, except for the bundles) is a really good motivation for getting a subscription. That alone probably saves €100 a year.
I've bought almost every Secret Lair and I did not get sent this survey.
However, since I generally just buy one of each, not having to pay shipping (like €7.5 each time, except for the bundles) is a really good motivation for getting a subscription. That alone probably saves €100 a year.
Except if it costs that much as a subscription you're not really saving anything. Then if all other incentive is that you get to buy even more all you're doing is spending more. If that's what you wish that's great for you, but I'll be over here only spending $5 on a playset of Lightning Bolt rather than $30 on it.
I'm fine with you sitting over there and me sitting over here. I'm a collector so I like having one of each SL for that purpose.
So the way I see it, if I pay +X for the subscription, then save ~X through lack of shipping costs and 10% off, and get some extra perks such as access to a few further SLs, then it's a win for me.
Perhaps the survey was only sent to those who have an older DCI # or who ordered multiple copies of multiple lairs?
I've been playing for a long time, have ordered 4 or 5 of the same lair (sometimes to keep one sealed), and I received the survey, which I promptly filled out with enthusiasm. I appreciate that Wizards wants and values our opinions, and as such, am always pleased to help with consumer market research to (hopefully) improve with products, reprints, distribution, and pricing any way I can.
While there's some Secret Lairs I've had an eye on (though I've never gone in,) there's some of them that have been highly questionable; and a lot of Secret Lairs have been Basic Lands. You would be agreeing to ball all of the premium cost basic lands. Also, though all artwork will be nice to someone, I don't think any one person has liked all of the artwork so far. With the pandemic ending, at least, they can be expected to be able to ship these things immediately, though, which is a plus.
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This is all assuming that the shipping, early access, and merch are worth $0
I did explicitly say in that final paragraph that free shipping would likely drive that price closer to the cost of the subscription.
Early Access may as well be $0, however. Unless WotC decides that early access is also the only access for a product they've been printing to demand, which, hey, they could do.
I didn't see anything in the thread about merch, so, I don't know. Did it specify that the merch would be free, or is it just something unique that you get to buy if you have a subscription?
EDIT: To be clear, I was also specifically responding to the idea that the 10% discount alone was worth the price of admission, like you said earlier.
Meh, it also feels like they do more and more of these each year. This year being behind doesn't mean much since these typically drop in batches. I'm sure once actual details of this arrive it'll be easier to evaluate.
That early access is worth quite a bit. If I can get the product to resell before others, it sells for more. Reselling SLs is already pretty profitable overall,and pretty easy, especially in the days immediately following the first deliveries.
That's assuming you get the product first and not just "Get to order the product first, with everything shipping at once." I also wasn't assuming purchasing for turning purposes, but I suppose that's on me.
They certainly create more product every year, as I've listed in another thread, but Secret Lairs have only been around since 2019. 2020 is the best data we can work off of, and we're already a third of the way through the year. Theros Stargazing and Secret Lair Drop: Smitten were comparable sets of five, as are Secret Lair: International Women's Day and Secret Lair: Black is Magic (being more charity based drops). But by this point last year, we'd also had the Year of the Rat, and Thalia. If Strixhaven only gets one Secret Lair, it'll be comparable to the Godzilla Lands Secret Lair.
You also made me curious again, so let’s toss in some extra math. I bought one Secret Lair in 2020. Assuming my receipt is correct, it cost 5 dollars to ship to me. I’m in the Midwest, so it probably costs more to ship to the East Coast, but I can only work with the information I have.
Assuming that every box costs 5 dollars to ship, with a 10% discount, I would need to buy 18 Secret Lairs to exceed the cost of the Subscription. Specifically going off of my list: Year of the Rat through non-foil Happy Yargle Day!, purchasing both foil and non-foil, gets me to $150 in discounts and free shipping.
From foil "Happy Yargle Day!" onwards, the savings add up to $110.
EDIT: Missed 3 places where shipping could have been added, upping the savings at the end from $95 to $110.
That's a lot of assumptions based off of a rumor started by a hypothetical survey that you heard about second hand. But sure.
Well, damn, guess you got me there. This is the "only talk about verified things and don't assume anything" forum. Thanks for showing me the error of my ways. I will correct this grave mistake in the future.
It was an observation, not a judgment. Lower your temperature, young one.
I for one appreciate ThyLordQ's attempts to quantify this in some realm as an estimate. I guess it does depend on the definition of "Early Access" and if that means early reservation or early shipped, but I'm not sure if we should approach this subscription series from the scalper angle (as it def would most likely be profitable in long term, even if short sale isn't), but from the average consumer who is buying it to get the cards and feel like the subscription savings make the subscription worth it.
But again, all these numbers will change, but with what data we got, not a bad spot to start conversations with.
The number of people that are so stupid are not crazy big, so if you know some people with money and less intelligence you can make some bucks.
But A LOT of people ordered these to make a profit and could not sell them at all, and made a loss.
A lot of these Secret Lairs packs are sold for less than the price (including shipping) that WotC is asking for , especially singles (as more often than not there is just 1 card thats particularly interesting, and all the others are total junk).
----
Like with all products they tend to throw the best stuff away early , then the product gets watered down till nobody buys it anymore ... happens with basically any special product Wotc has ever produced and is already showing in Secret Lair as well.
If you get super fast and cheap shipping of the product its more or less trivial to sell for a margin of profit.
If you however need to wait months till you get your order, then flipping the product becomes a dangerous investment (especially if the amount you order is a higher amount).
WUBRG#BlackLotusMatterWUBRG
👮👮👮 #BlueLivesMatter 👮👮👮
For what its worth, that's actually not accurate. Yes, if you only purchase a single lair and pay shipping, the ROI is a lot lower, but since quite a few have come with bundle discounts and you get free shipping if your order is over $99, only two are currently less (based on TCG Market) than their original purchase price: Path Not Travelled, Mountains Go
Now the number that you wouldn't profit from after ebay fees and shipping is higher, but several have also doubled or more in value at the same time. Its interesting to see what see values have done, like how packs of four of the same card haven't done well, while OMG Kitties is one of the highest value ones there is even though most people were really "meh" about it at release.
I guaranteed the 2 biggest problems here is people don’t want a lair and are forced to get it and B - member exclusive lairs if they are mechanically unique cards who ever does secret lairs needs to be fired.
the only secret lair I got was the theros gods in constellation form and in the form of singles from kaleidoscope killers (the third could potentially be the dinosaur one coming up but only if Gishath and Zacama are in it.)
any way to do this the right way I say give a severe discount for game stores so they can have access to these cards easier
Or it works in the reverse and less will buy it knowing full well they will be able to find it cheaper from the direct seller a little later.
So instead of "look at this crazy card" it's "good job everyone, we raised stocks 13.3% with the release of 9 new products for our Secret Lair product line. Please enjoy this complimentary piece of cardboard." I feel sorry for Cure for the Common Game on YouTube since he's made it his mission to build a EDH / Commander deck off of EVERY Legendary Creature ever printed and after the Walking Dead Secret Lairs this just feels like a HUGE slap in the face. There's been other Legendary Creatures printed for Heroes of the Realm in the past with limited printings for them which he was unable to build decks for so that's a given I guess.
"Restriction breeds creativity." - Sheldon Menery on EDH / Commander in Magic: The Gathering
"Cancel Culture is the real reason why everyone's not allowed to have nice things anymore." - Anonymous
"For what will it profit a man if he gains the whole world, and loses his own soul?" - Mark 8:36
"Most men and women will grow up to love their servitude and will never dream of revolution." - Aldous Huxley, Brave New World
"Every life decision is always a risk / reward proposition." - Sanjay Gupta
"Restriction breeds creativity." - Sheldon Menery on EDH / Commander in Magic: The Gathering
"Cancel Culture is the real reason why everyone's not allowed to have nice things anymore." - Anonymous
"For what will it profit a man if he gains the whole world, and loses his own soul?" - Mark 8:36
"Most men and women will grow up to love their servitude and will never dream of revolution." - Aldous Huxley, Brave New World
"Every life decision is always a risk / reward proposition." - Sanjay Gupta
Imagine someone attaining all four of these and pulling a Kaiba by destroying one and automatically bring up the price of the other three. For that matter watch them put it on a stream/video where they make money on the video and people actually paying them to destroy the card.
While this card and how it's being done is a little gross, really should have been a company wide gift, really all that will happen here is an extreme collectors item and in the end I really don't care about this specifically, though I do wonder if they'll continue doing things like this and we do end up with a Yugioh anime situation and someone has the best card that dominates.
"You can tell how dumb someone is by how they use Mary Sue"
2023 Average Peasant Cube|and Discussion
Because I have more decks than fit in a signature
Useful Resources:
MTGSalvation tags
EDHREC
ManabaseCrafter
This survey was sent out to people who have bought secret lairs. The past few have just generally been online and I discovered them when someone posted on the forum with a link.
As far as this survey:
1. Subscription: Flat out not worth it unless you were planning to get everything anyway. The lack of shipping costs will basically make 1-2 pairs effectively free each year but I’m a bit too selective.
2. Membership: Not worth it for me at the $200-250 price point. The 10% discount only really works out if you plan to buy multiple sets of these lairs (going on past data at least). At the $99 value, I would absolutely jump in as I’m willing to bet that the exclusive releases in the first year will be godly (as Wizards tends to put in extra value when doing things for the first time) to lure in people who missed out the first time (I’m expecting some top-tier offers like imperial seal or a set of all five allied fetches) Will likely jump out the moment the value is gone, though.
Note 1: If wizards ever produces enough secret lairs that it basically becomes an offer of the week program, I would join a $99 membership program even with ho-hum exclusives as the lack of shipping costs is more likely to be cancelled out.
Note 2: The survey asks if special gifts would be an incentive. If Wizards is willing to send out monthly promos to people in the membership program or if membership unlocks a second, superior insert card (such as Lucille or the stained glass walkers) in secret lairs, I would likewise be inclined to keep membership.
However, since I generally just buy one of each, not having to pay shipping (like €7.5 each time, except for the bundles) is a really good motivation for getting a subscription. That alone probably saves €100 a year.
Except if it costs that much as a subscription you're not really saving anything. Then if all other incentive is that you get to buy even more all you're doing is spending more. If that's what you wish that's great for you, but I'll be over here only spending $5 on a playset of Lightning Bolt rather than $30 on it.
So the way I see it, if I pay +X for the subscription, then save ~X through lack of shipping costs and 10% off, and get some extra perks such as access to a few further SLs, then it's a win for me.
I've been playing for a long time, have ordered 4 or 5 of the same lair (sometimes to keep one sealed), and I received the survey, which I promptly filled out with enthusiasm. I appreciate that Wizards wants and values our opinions, and as such, am always pleased to help with consumer market research to (hopefully) improve with products, reprints, distribution, and pricing any way I can.
I used to be a demigod, but now I'm an omnimage