I remember the end days of old Extended and how I took a longish break from magic when there was no format legal for Pernicious Deed. If that comes back I might actually look to get into Modern for the first time since the format existed. That is if they actually make Chainer's Edict legal, too. Getting Chainer's Edict, Recoup and Pernicious Deed would be a blast, and I could get over losing Evasive Action, maybe. But downshifting that one would mean all the good stuff you need to make Domain work in Pauper, and that would be really good.
Some advice from a guy who actually played with Fluctuator and Flametongue Kavu. Don't reprint Fluctuator. Just don't. Flametongue Kavu is sneakily much stronger than all the later Flametongues we've been getting for years and either does noting if a fomat is resistant to it (namely, usual threats are too big for him to take them out if you cast him on curve), or it completely wtfpwns dude decks and acts as a power-level gatekeeper even if no deck actually plays him. Meaning he either does nothing, or he really affects the format just by existing. I'd be very careful about that card, unless the format is already opressively dominated by some other gatekeeper with even higher busted-quota requirement for any creature to be playable.
Folks who are nostalgic about FTK often don't really understand how much impact that card can have.
Ravenous Chupachabra is in modern and sees no play. I don’t think we have to worry about FTK. It will be a popular pet card in casual builds.
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Modern
JundBGR
RW Blood MoonRW
Pauper
Delver U
Elves G
Control B
Commander
Edgar Markov BRW
Captain Sisay GW
Niv-Mizzet, Parun UR
Tymna and Ravos WB
Magic was a lot different when FTK was seeing competitive play. I think it’s generally worse than Bloodbraid Elf which doesn’t play outside of one deck. It’s hard to justify spending four mana on anything in this format, and as a person who only plays with red based removal in modern, 4 damage just ain’t doing it on turn 4. The number of matchups where FTK wouldn’t even have a target aside from your own creatures is pretty large.
Sure, as I said, that card is either unplayable or completely evil, depending on the metagame. I played it in extended formats when it was also supposed to not be playable, but then it just messed up certain matchups. It's generally not played on turn 4, but accelerated into play earlier (this was also the case in it's own standard). And Extended was likely faster and nastier than Modern, although from what I gather modern caught up with the design mistake quota at some point and is about as silly. Either way I wouldn't reprint it - it'll either do nothing, or be as evil as ever, and I certainly wouldn't want it downshifted for Pauper as it would just be a nail in the coffin for every creature that's not Gurmag Angler (who's already opressive enough).
The difference between Chupacabra and FTK, and really, all other FTK's and FTK is that FTK clocks you faster. They're quite different cards in this respect, and FTK's likely to pressure people and trade with another reasonably large thing, where Chupacabra is just an overcosted kill spell that requires 2 mana of the same color to cast. FTK is a kill spell that rebounds for 4 damage every turn unless dealt with, they're not on the same plane in terms of power level. FTK was a design mistake on multiple levels, so much so that they're still really, really careful to not print anything like it, even if they print suff that on paper reminds people of it. Still not saying that being a faster clock means FTK would have an impact, but he does clock in 5 swings solo, whereas Bloodbraid clocks in 7 and Chupacabra in 10. Those are huge differences. It might not make a difference in the current Modern, but I'd not be in a rush to ever see it legal anywhere outside of commander and such. Just in case.
Still, Fluctuator is just a no. Nothing good ever comes off that card.
"Masques Block is the worst block ever! There's not one decent card in there! The whole internet say's so, you're literally the only person who ever said it was good!" - random noob in a conversation with an Eldrazi.
Magic was a lot different when FTK was seeing competitive play. I think it’s generally worse than Bloodbraid Elf which doesn’t play outside of one deck. It’s hard to justify spending four mana on anything in this format, and as a person who only plays with red based removal in modern, 4 damage just ain’t doing it on turn 4. The number of matchups where FTK wouldn’t even have a target aside from your own creatures is pretty large.
Sure, as I said, that card is either unplayable or completely evil, depending on the metagame. I played it in extended formats when it was also supposed to not be playable, but then it just messed up certain matchups. It's generally not played on turn 4, but accelerated into play earlier (this was also the case in it's own standard). And Extended was likely faster and nastier than Modern, although from what I gather modern caught up with the design mistake quota at some point and is about as silly. Either way I wouldn't reprint it - it'll either do nothing, or be as evil as ever, and I certainly wouldn't want it downshifted for Pauper as it would just be a nail in the coffin for every creature that's not Gurmag Angler (who's already opressive enough).
The difference between Chupacabra and FTK, and really, all other FTK's and FTK is that FTK clocks you faster. They're quite different cards in this respect, and FTK's likely to pressure people and trade with another reasonably large thing, where Chupacabra is just an overcosted kill spell that requires 2 mana of the same color to cast. FTK is a kill spell that rebounds for 4 damage every turn unless dealt with, they're not on the same plane in terms of power level. FTK was a design mistake on multiple levels, so much so that they're still really, really careful to not print anything like it, even if they print suff that on paper reminds people of it. Still not saying that being a faster clock means FTK would have an impact, but he does clock in 5 swings solo, whereas Bloodbraid clocks in 7 and Chupacabra in 10. Those are huge differences. It might not make a difference in the current Modern, but I'd not be in a rush to ever see it legal anywhere outside of commander and such. Just in case.
Still, Fluctuator is just a no. Nothing good ever comes off that card.
Just wanted to point that modern was created (oficialy) after return of the eldrazi and Avacyn Restored soo FTK was never in extended in the same period as modern was a thing.
I know your concerns, but just think about this FTK is not as "modal" as chupacabra, chupacabra can be played without targets for it's ability while FTK if played alone will suicide. The reasson i say this is that modern metagame has all types of decks, decks linear non linear, interactive and non interactive, etc. It by itself is alread "not playable" in modern cause it don't pass the Lightning bolt test, but you know what is funny? 70% of the most played creatures in modern don't pass the lighting bolt test. ( soo no FTK would not be more of a gatekeeper than Lighting bolt or Path to exile). Also, the reasson i remembered that it needs to target is because 30%+ of the games will be agains control decks and linear combos that makes FTK a dead card in hand, this alone makes it a sideboard card at most of times (at most)
Modern has decks that puts 1+ 4/4s at turn 1 (it was common to see 2 hollow one in turn 1 some m ago) it is common to have 1+ 3/3, 1+ 2/1 + 1+ 1/1 flying maybe before turn 2 (Dredge), it is common to see a 15/15 on turn 4-5, it is common to see 5+/5+ creatures before turn 3.
IMO FTK would be just a gimmick in modern, even if he saw some play. First lantern player will make most people regretfull at playing FTK
Magic was a lot different when FTK was seeing competitive play. I think it’s generally worse than Bloodbraid Elf which doesn’t play outside of one deck. It’s hard to justify spending four mana on anything in this format, and as a person who only plays with red based removal in modern, 4 damage just ain’t doing it on turn 4. The number of matchups where FTK wouldn’t even have a target aside from your own creatures is pretty large.
Sure, as I said, that card is either unplayable or completely evil, depending on the metagame. I played it in extended formats when it was also supposed to not be playable, but then it just messed up certain matchups. It's generally not played on turn 4, but accelerated into play earlier (this was also the case in it's own standard). And Extended was likely faster and nastier than Modern, although from what I gather modern caught up with the design mistake quota at some point and is about as silly. Either way I wouldn't reprint it - it'll either do nothing, or be as evil as ever, and I certainly wouldn't want it downshifted for Pauper as it would just be a nail in the coffin for every creature that's not Gurmag Angler (who's already opressive enough).
The difference between Chupacabra and FTK, and really, all other FTK's and FTK is that FTK clocks you faster. They're quite different cards in this respect, and FTK's likely to pressure people and trade with another reasonably large thing, where Chupacabra is just an overcosted kill spell that requires 2 mana of the same color to cast. FTK is a kill spell that rebounds for 4 damage every turn unless dealt with, they're not on the same plane in terms of power level. FTK was a design mistake on multiple levels, so much so that they're still really, really careful to not print anything like it, even if they print suff that on paper reminds people of it. Still not saying that being a faster clock means FTK would have an impact, but he does clock in 5 swings solo, whereas Bloodbraid clocks in 7 and Chupacabra in 10. Those are huge differences. It might not make a difference in the current Modern, but I'd not be in a rush to ever see it legal anywhere outside of commander and such. Just in case.
Still, Fluctuator is just a no. Nothing good ever comes off that card.
Considering FTK is basically a Lava Coil plus a 4/2 beater that can't be played in isolation, and neither Coil nor Nekrataal see play in Modern, I don't see it as being a menace to the format, this is not Standard where accelerating into a T3 FTK could win games right there. I definitely agree on not downshifting it though, it sounds risky for Pauper, and about Fluctuator...cards that let you do stuff for free are troublesome more often than not, and if we're talking about a 2-mana artifact, well...the potential for all sorts of broken interactions is there. I don't see them bringing that stuff into Modern.
Are we talking about someone reinventing an old combo kill? Or doing new things?
One 'new' line of play that obv was never available in Fluctuator's time: Simian Spirit Guide or Chancellor of the Tangle would allow a T1 Fluctuator, then 3 or more now-free cycling cards would lead to several free Hollow Ones. Any better than the incumbent street wraiths + self-discard spells? Eh, probably not. But it's an example that illustrates there are a lot more possibilities to consider now than just what was 'the combo' then.
Even the fact that the deck can run a suite of cycling dual lands rather than the old one running mono-colored lands... indicates some increase in potential.
(I kinda wonder if the cycledeserts' prices will skyrocket if fluctuator is spoiled as present here).
FTK would be like Goblin Dark-Dwellers. It’s a playable pet card in casual builds. Look at how safe BBE has been for modern after people were complaining about how busted the card is.
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Modern
JundBGR
RW Blood MoonRW
Pauper
Delver U
Elves G
Control B
Commander
Edgar Markov BRW
Captain Sisay GW
Niv-Mizzet, Parun UR
Tymna and Ravos WB
Are we talking about someone reinventing an old combo kill? Or doing new things?
One 'new' line of play that obv was never available in Fluctuator's time: Simian Spirit Guide or Chancellor of the Tangle would allow a T1 Fluctuator, then 3 or more now-free cycling cards would lead to several free Hollow Ones. Any better than the incumbent street wraiths + self-discard spells? Eh, probably not. But it's an example that illustrates there are a lot more possibilities to consider now than just what was 'the combo' then.
Even the fact that the deck can run a suite of cycling dual lands rather than the old one running mono-colored lands... indicates some increase in potential.
(I kinda wonder if the cycledeserts' prices will skyrocket if fluctuator is spoiled as present here).
I agree with the assessment of anyone who's more informed of the current modern metagame than me that FTK doesn't look very threatening. It's just that a lot of people are used to etb-kill-stuff, and since it doesn't have much of an impact, they think it can't. This isn't true, in large part because FTK had such a huge impact that they never actually made a guy as good at it as he was. And yes, there are matchups where he's a dead card, sure, there were such even in his heyday. He's still one of the cards with the biggest long lasting impact on MtG in general.
It looks dopey, and you've seen a lot of cards vaguely similar to him not be very impactful, but a large part of that was because there wasn't ever really a dude that did etb-kills-something with only one colored mana or his clocking power. And most modern players, or magic players for that matter, at this point haven't actually played against FTK and their assessment of how strong that effect can be with just the right stupid combination of numbers is likely to be off. WOTC made sure not to repeat those numbers ever, but FTK is less Chupacabra or Dark-Dwellers territory, and more Bloodbraid Elf territory, except as opposed to the elf FTK takes less deckbuilding considerations and if a format allows him to be a playable card he starts cropping up literally everywhere. Like in hard control decks of all things.
Still, FTK has it's downsides, and it wouldn't wtfpwn everything even if it was everywhere because there's always decks that have no targets for him at all - he IS more of a sideboard card - it's just that I'd be careful around that card.
"Masques Block is the worst block ever! There's not one decent card in there! The whole internet say's so, you're literally the only person who ever said it was good!" - random noob in a conversation with an Eldrazi.
The ones that can be reprinted (Expropriate, Oubliette) are only expensive because of scarcity, the rest are on the brink or way too good for Modern, some are too good for Legacy. So all the set's EV will have to fall either on expensive Un/Commons and $10-20 rares, or the new cards.
We can only hope, but still, value usually comes from being proven. Outside of things like Planeswalkers and lands that seem to have a set minimum stores are willing to presale for, a lot of powerful but unproven cards enter the market at a relatively low price.
What I'm saying is I don't expect this $250 box to have a $50 chase rare unless they absolutelly ruin the format. So I really hope it is at least filled with $4 cards to promote people buying and cracking as much as possible to help card circulation.
The ones that can be reprinted (Expropriate, Oubliette) are only expensive because of scarcity, the rest are on the brink or way too good for Modern, some are too good for Legacy. So all the set's EV will have to fall either on expensive Un/Commons and $10-20 rares, or the new cards.
Well, remember though, there may be a card or cards that is in the legacy card pool that doesn't see play in legacy or doesn't see enough play to push its price above $40, but if was suddenly legal in modern would go well over $40. Not saying it will for sure happen, but it certainly could actually push the prices up on some cards.
It would be tough, because there would already be two sources of supply for people wanting to play that card (all the existing pre-modern versions of said card, most of which have been printed at least twice because the majority of rares from premodern that were only printed once are now on the reserved list) in addition to all the new supply this printing adds.
The demand would have to be stratospheric for it to outpace what will already be a substantial supply.
What I'm saying is I don't expect this $250 box to have a $50 chase rare unless they absolutelly ruin the format. So I really hope it is at least filled with $4 cards to promote people buying and cracking as much as possible to help card circulation.
the only places boxes will be close to 250 is at lgs, and id imagine mostly bought by people not caring much about paying the premium to support their lgs and or place a high value on the convenience of picking it up locally.
rumor is boxes are being sold by distributors at $163. nobody should by buying boxes for more than roughly 200. itd be akin to buying boxes of the newest standard set for 120. granted most people shouldnt be buying boxes at all and just get singles. its print to demand guys, if singles prices are high stores will just order as much as they want and crack packs themselves.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
It would be tough, because there would already be two sources of supply for people wanting to play that card (all the existing pre-modern versions of said card, most of which have been printed at least twice because the majority of rares from premodern that were only printed once are now on the reserved list) in addition to all the new supply this printing adds.
The demand would have to be stratospheric for it to outpace what will already be a substantial supply.
I would think cards like True-Name Nemesis would increase if in Modern card pool.
Don't underestimate Modern demand vs Legacy demand. Biiiiig difference.
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Currently Playing: Standard:
Nothing, the format Bores me! Legacy: RBurn (Made on the Cheap!)R RGBelcherRG WSoldier StompyW BReanimatorB EDH: BUGRWSliver OverlordWRGUB BGeth, Lord of the VaultB
If they wanted to do this right they would have Boxtoppers of all the rare and mythics in the set
while maybe not box toppers i wouldnt preclude the possibility of some sort of 'mythic edition'-esque promotion, maybe even with direct order from hasbro (an updated version of their store, ebay, amazon, etc).
wizards has also expressed that they arent averse to doing in-pack masterpiece type cards again with the implication that its in the works. whether or not for horizons though...well no one can know. they made it sound like it could happen in the distant future, but gavin verhey also made a similar sounding claim for a direct-to-modern set a month before it was announced. /shrug
frankly im cool if they dont bother with any of that. maybe frill up the basic lands a bit, whatever, but otherwise keeping the box value tied closer to the playable demand of the cards. its certainly one of the more interesting things about the set, they are asking players/customers to pay a premium for otherwise untested cards. this either speaks to their confidence that enough of the new designs will be sought after for competitive play, or that its an experimental mark-up stemming from the product being targeted towards enfranchised players.
there is also the chance that the reprint value will be high enough, but as others have pointed out it looks to involve either printing stronger (and dangerous) legacy level cards or tying up a bunch of reprint slots for cards modern players wont care much about (ie commander/pauper staples). neither of which sound like very good plans, with the latter being openly against how wizards says they have/will look at value reprints (ie they cant put them anywhere because they want those reprints to be attractive to the targeted audience).
What do you guys think about a birchlore rangers reprint. I think it would breathe some consistency in elves (weaker heritage druid for current builds) or variety in sideboard cards. I don't see it vaulting the deck up to the top tables anytime soon, but it would be a welcome addition. It seems like one of the weaker legacy pieces that could port over.
What I'm saying is I don't expect this $250 box to have a $50 chase rare unless they absolutelly ruin the format. So I really hope it is at least filled with $4 cards to promote people buying and cracking as much as possible to help card circulation.
the only places boxes will be close to 250 is at lgs, and id imagine mostly bought by people not caring much about paying the premium to support their lgs and or place a high value on the convenience of picking it up locally.
rumor is boxes are being sold by distributors at $163. nobody should by buying boxes for more than roughly 200. itd be akin to buying boxes of the newest standard set for 120. granted most people shouldnt be buying boxes at all and just get singles. its print to demand guys, if singles prices are high stores will just order as much as they want and crack packs themselves.
Print to demand or not, if the market price is sub-200 with distribution costs anywhere from $163 to $180 (and yes, there IS a range, based on amount ordered and various other factors), there are a lot of LGSs that won't order much of this at all. Most LGSs that don't deal primarily in Magic that carry these will have them at $250-$300. A $20-$37 profit margin is not worth the time and effort of this, and not every store sells singles. This idea of $200 boxes was first proposed on Reddit and the guy who posted it got torn apart by more sensible people who were mad that he put the idea out there for it to get in people's heads that $200 would be the going rate. $200 for this product is not a realistic price based on the cost of ordering.
Print to demand or not, if the market price is sub-200 with distribution costs anywhere from $163 to $180 (and yes, there IS a range, based on amount ordered and various other factors), there are a lot of LGSs that won't order much of this at all. Most LGSs that don't deal primarily in Magic that carry these will have them at $250-$300. A $20-$37 profit margin is not worth the time and effort of this, and not every store sells singles. This idea of $200 boxes was first proposed on Reddit and the guy who posted it got torn apart by more sensible people who were mad that he put the idea out there for it to get in people's heads that $200 would be the going rate. $200 for this product is not a realistic price based on the cost of ordering.
read the first paragraph of my comment where i say that boxes will see a markup at the lgs level, likely in the 250 range. you point out the reasons why, the margins arent there, and unlike masters sets they cant buy boxes and wait until supply dries up. the same reasons why local stores dont buy a bunch of standard boxes, its just not worth the effort while tying up capital.
i think what you are misunderstanding is that when i say 'stores' i mean online sellers; because buying boxes and singles online is a thing...
in those cases power sellers and major dealers flip hundreds to thousands of boxes at barebones margins. of course there will be some threshhold they wont go below, but the stiff competition will mean a race to the bottom since undercutting will be rampant. feel free to preorder boxes right now for 200 shipped: https://www.gamenerdz.com/magic-the-gathering-modern-horizons-booster-box-preorder
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
What I'm saying is I don't expect this $250 box to have a $50 chase rare unless they absolutelly ruin the format. So I really hope it is at least filled with $4 cards to promote people buying and cracking as much as possible to help card circulation.
the only places boxes will be close to 250 is at lgs
So absolutelly every market except the USA because Wal Mart and Target don't sell Magic in most of the world and paying shipping plus import taxes beats the money you would've saved on Amazon.
It would be tough, because there would already be two sources of supply for people wanting to play that card (all the existing pre-modern versions of said card, most of which have been printed at least twice because the majority of rares from premodern that were only printed once are now on the reserved list) in addition to all the new supply this printing adds.
The demand would have to be stratospheric for it to outpace what will already be a substantial supply.
I would think cards like True-Name Nemesis would increase if in Modern card pool.
Don't underestimate Modern demand vs Legacy demand. Biiiiig difference.
Are you insane if true-name nemesis became modern legal it would shoot to a 150$ish card as a matter of fact I can picture it getting banned easily
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Ravenous Chupachabra is in modern and sees no play. I don’t think we have to worry about FTK. It will be a popular pet card in casual builds.
JundBGR
RW Blood MoonRW
Pauper
Delver U
Elves G
Control B
Commander
Edgar Markov BRW
Captain Sisay GW
Niv-Mizzet, Parun UR
Tymna and Ravos WB
Sure, as I said, that card is either unplayable or completely evil, depending on the metagame. I played it in extended formats when it was also supposed to not be playable, but then it just messed up certain matchups. It's generally not played on turn 4, but accelerated into play earlier (this was also the case in it's own standard). And Extended was likely faster and nastier than Modern, although from what I gather modern caught up with the design mistake quota at some point and is about as silly. Either way I wouldn't reprint it - it'll either do nothing, or be as evil as ever, and I certainly wouldn't want it downshifted for Pauper as it would just be a nail in the coffin for every creature that's not Gurmag Angler (who's already opressive enough).
The difference between Chupacabra and FTK, and really, all other FTK's and FTK is that FTK clocks you faster. They're quite different cards in this respect, and FTK's likely to pressure people and trade with another reasonably large thing, where Chupacabra is just an overcosted kill spell that requires 2 mana of the same color to cast. FTK is a kill spell that rebounds for 4 damage every turn unless dealt with, they're not on the same plane in terms of power level. FTK was a design mistake on multiple levels, so much so that they're still really, really careful to not print anything like it, even if they print suff that on paper reminds people of it. Still not saying that being a faster clock means FTK would have an impact, but he does clock in 5 swings solo, whereas Bloodbraid clocks in 7 and Chupacabra in 10. Those are huge differences. It might not make a difference in the current Modern, but I'd not be in a rush to ever see it legal anywhere outside of commander and such. Just in case.
Still, Fluctuator is just a no. Nothing good ever comes off that card.
Just wanted to point that modern was created (oficialy) after return of the eldrazi and Avacyn Restored soo FTK was never in extended in the same period as modern was a thing.
I know your concerns, but just think about this FTK is not as "modal" as chupacabra, chupacabra can be played without targets for it's ability while FTK if played alone will suicide. The reasson i say this is that modern metagame has all types of decks, decks linear non linear, interactive and non interactive, etc. It by itself is alread "not playable" in modern cause it don't pass the Lightning bolt test, but you know what is funny? 70% of the most played creatures in modern don't pass the lighting bolt test. ( soo no FTK would not be more of a gatekeeper than Lighting bolt or Path to exile). Also, the reasson i remembered that it needs to target is because 30%+ of the games will be agains control decks and linear combos that makes FTK a dead card in hand, this alone makes it a sideboard card at most of times (at most)
Modern has decks that puts 1+ 4/4s at turn 1 (it was common to see 2 hollow one in turn 1 some m ago) it is common to have 1+ 3/3, 1+ 2/1 + 1+ 1/1 flying maybe before turn 2 (Dredge), it is common to see a 15/15 on turn 4-5, it is common to see 5+/5+ creatures before turn 3.
IMO FTK would be just a gimmick in modern, even if he saw some play. First lantern player will make most people regretfull at playing FTK
Considering FTK is basically a Lava Coil plus a 4/2 beater that can't be played in isolation, and neither Coil nor Nekrataal see play in Modern, I don't see it as being a menace to the format, this is not Standard where accelerating into a T3 FTK could win games right there. I definitely agree on not downshifting it though, it sounds risky for Pauper, and about Fluctuator...cards that let you do stuff for free are troublesome more often than not, and if we're talking about a 2-mana artifact, well...the potential for all sorts of broken interactions is there. I don't see them bringing that stuff into Modern.
One 'new' line of play that obv was never available in Fluctuator's time: Simian Spirit Guide or Chancellor of the Tangle would allow a T1 Fluctuator, then 3 or more now-free cycling cards would lead to several free Hollow Ones. Any better than the incumbent street wraiths + self-discard spells? Eh, probably not. But it's an example that illustrates there are a lot more possibilities to consider now than just what was 'the combo' then.
Even the fact that the deck can run a suite of cycling dual lands rather than the old one running mono-colored lands... indicates some increase in potential.
(I kinda wonder if the cycledeserts' prices will skyrocket if fluctuator is spoiled as present here).
JundBGR
RW Blood MoonRW
Pauper
Delver U
Elves G
Control B
Commander
Edgar Markov BRW
Captain Sisay GW
Niv-Mizzet, Parun UR
Tymna and Ravos WB
It looks dopey, and you've seen a lot of cards vaguely similar to him not be very impactful, but a large part of that was because there wasn't ever really a dude that did etb-kills-something with only one colored mana or his clocking power. And most modern players, or magic players for that matter, at this point haven't actually played against FTK and their assessment of how strong that effect can be with just the right stupid combination of numbers is likely to be off. WOTC made sure not to repeat those numbers ever, but FTK is less Chupacabra or Dark-Dwellers territory, and more Bloodbraid Elf territory, except as opposed to the elf FTK takes less deckbuilding considerations and if a format allows him to be a playable card he starts cropping up literally everywhere. Like in hard control decks of all things.
Still, FTK has it's downsides, and it wouldn't wtfpwn everything even if it was everywhere because there's always decks that have no targets for him at all - he IS more of a sideboard card - it's just that I'd be careful around that card.
The ones that can be reprinted (Expropriate, Oubliette) are only expensive because of scarcity, the rest are on the brink or way too good for Modern, some are too good for Legacy. So all the set's EV will have to fall either on expensive Un/Commons and $10-20 rares, or the new cards.
What I'm saying is I don't expect this $250 box to have a $50 chase rare unless they absolutelly ruin the format. So I really hope it is at least filled with $4 cards to promote people buying and cracking as much as possible to help card circulation.
Well, remember though, there may be a card or cards that is in the legacy card pool that doesn't see play in legacy or doesn't see enough play to push its price above $40, but if was suddenly legal in modern would go well over $40. Not saying it will for sure happen, but it certainly could actually push the prices up on some cards.
375 unpowered cube - https://cubecobra.com/cube/list/601ac624832cdf1039947588
The demand would have to be stratospheric for it to outpace what will already be a substantial supply.
the only places boxes will be close to 250 is at lgs, and id imagine mostly bought by people not caring much about paying the premium to support their lgs and or place a high value on the convenience of picking it up locally.
rumor is boxes are being sold by distributors at $163. nobody should by buying boxes for more than roughly 200. itd be akin to buying boxes of the newest standard set for 120. granted most people shouldnt be buying boxes at all and just get singles. its print to demand guys, if singles prices are high stores will just order as much as they want and crack packs themselves.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)I would think cards like True-Name Nemesis would increase if in Modern card pool.
Don't underestimate Modern demand vs Legacy demand. Biiiiig difference.
Currently Playing:
Standard:
Nothing, the format Bores me!
Legacy:
RBurn (Made on the Cheap!)R
RGBelcherRG
WSoldier StompyW
BReanimatorB
EDH:
BUGRWSliver OverlordWRGUB
BGeth, Lord of the VaultB
wizards has also expressed that they arent averse to doing in-pack masterpiece type cards again with the implication that its in the works. whether or not for horizons though...well no one can know. they made it sound like it could happen in the distant future, but gavin verhey also made a similar sounding claim for a direct-to-modern set a month before it was announced. /shrug
frankly im cool if they dont bother with any of that. maybe frill up the basic lands a bit, whatever, but otherwise keeping the box value tied closer to the playable demand of the cards. its certainly one of the more interesting things about the set, they are asking players/customers to pay a premium for otherwise untested cards. this either speaks to their confidence that enough of the new designs will be sought after for competitive play, or that its an experimental mark-up stemming from the product being targeted towards enfranchised players.
there is also the chance that the reprint value will be high enough, but as others have pointed out it looks to involve either printing stronger (and dangerous) legacy level cards or tying up a bunch of reprint slots for cards modern players wont care much about (ie commander/pauper staples). neither of which sound like very good plans, with the latter being openly against how wizards says they have/will look at value reprints (ie they cant put them anywhere because they want those reprints to be attractive to the targeted audience).
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Print to demand or not, if the market price is sub-200 with distribution costs anywhere from $163 to $180 (and yes, there IS a range, based on amount ordered and various other factors), there are a lot of LGSs that won't order much of this at all. Most LGSs that don't deal primarily in Magic that carry these will have them at $250-$300. A $20-$37 profit margin is not worth the time and effort of this, and not every store sells singles. This idea of $200 boxes was first proposed on Reddit and the guy who posted it got torn apart by more sensible people who were mad that he put the idea out there for it to get in people's heads that $200 would be the going rate. $200 for this product is not a realistic price based on the cost of ordering.
read the first paragraph of my comment where i say that boxes will see a markup at the lgs level, likely in the 250 range. you point out the reasons why, the margins arent there, and unlike masters sets they cant buy boxes and wait until supply dries up. the same reasons why local stores dont buy a bunch of standard boxes, its just not worth the effort while tying up capital.
i think what you are misunderstanding is that when i say 'stores' i mean online sellers; because buying boxes and singles online is a thing...
in those cases power sellers and major dealers flip hundreds to thousands of boxes at barebones margins. of course there will be some threshhold they wont go below, but the stiff competition will mean a race to the bottom since undercutting will be rampant. feel free to preorder boxes right now for 200 shipped: https://www.gamenerdz.com/magic-the-gathering-modern-horizons-booster-box-preorder
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Are you insane if true-name nemesis became modern legal it would shoot to a 150$ish card as a matter of fact I can picture it getting banned easily