Although i'm pretty excited about the reprints, i have a strong feeling that uncommons in the MM17 set will actually have a ''fatal push style'' rarity. Based on other peoples' and my own experience, fatal push, despite being uncommon, only has a couple of copies inside a whole Aether Revolt booster box.
That's exactly what i think will happen with all the valuable uncommons printed in the new set (path to exile, inquisition of Kozilek, etc). Hyping everyone up with the promise of super cool cards been given in loads, this set will sell a lot. Only a few packs will contain these, while the rest will be filled with junkier, less valuable uncommons.
Still, the set has a lot of excellent cards so far and will certainly have high value hidden inside every booster pack, that's why i'll buy a few no matter what
Although i'm pretty excited about the reprints, i have a strong feeling that uncommons in the MM17 set will actually have a ''fatal push style'' rarity. Based on other peoples' and my own experience, fatal push, despite being uncommon, only has a couple of copies inside a whole Aether Revolt booster box.
Not that this thread belongs here, but I'll take the bait anyway. How many copies of Fatal Push were you expecting in your box? People seem to forget that you will only see ~1.8 copies of any given Uncommon per booster box of Aether Revolt:
[(36 packs/box)*(3 Uncommons/pack)]/(60 Uncommons in Aether Revolt) = 1.8 copies of a specific uncommon per box
Rumors of Fatal Push being a "rarer" Uncommon are unsubstantiated -- there are occasions where a Common is slightly more common or more rare than all the others in the set due to layout of print sheets, but this does not affect distribution of Uncommons.
Back in Invasion block a friend of mine and I opened three boxes and only got 1 Fact or Fiction. It happens and has nothing to do with special WOTC sneakiness.
Back in Invasion block a friend of mine and I opened three boxes and only got 1 Fact or Fiction. It happens and has nothing to do with special WOTC sneakiness.
This.
Randomization happens. Pulled 4 copies of Fretwork Colony in my Kaladesh prerelease pool and only 2 out of 2 booster boxes afterward. Does it sounds like WotC is conspiring to make that dull piece of cardboard ultra secret rare at uncommon slot? Come on!
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"De potentia juvenis somniabat, nunc de Mundo somniat..."
It is not a conspiracy or a blame WOTC thread. It is a personal experience and opinion that i share, so i can't really understand the aggresive answers. Getting 4 fatal pushes, while flooding with all other uncommons in 3 boxes (and 2 prerelease kits) sounds weird to me.
The point is that i still believe this is a great way to promote sales whether this is true or not. Everyone wants to see strong cards printed in uncommon rarity, hoping to get multiple copies when opening a box and that is what drives people into buying more product.
It tends to be a common belief among people who only open a small amount of product and often do not know any better and thusly believe that the reason they didn't open many of a particular good card (uncommon in this case) is because of a belief that wizards prints less of the particularly good (uncommons in this case) even though its been proven time and time again that wizards does not do this for modern sets.
I used to own/run the magic singles part of a local gaming store for 6 years and typically opened 100+ boxes of each new set as they came out, and for each and every set opened (no matter similar beliefs for nearly every set with good uncommons,etc) the distribution of uncommons always ended up even in the end. Sure, as with all variance, some boxes would have more, and some would have less, same for individual cases. The odds of pulling specific uncommons from a single box depends on the size of the set. In the case of a smaller set with 60 uncommons in the set, you will get on average 1.8 of each uncommon per box. This means that while you will get 2 of most of the uncommons in the box, you will also only get 1 of some, and of course with randomized distributions of cards, you will end up in situations where you may get, on occasion, 3 of a particular uncommon, and very rare occasions where you may get zero of a particular uncommon. But as you open more boxes and cases, the variance will take care of itself and you will end up with an even amount of each of the uncommons.
In regards to the original post of the thread where it mentions about only getting 2 fatal push out of a single booster box, as mentioned with the math above, 2 is actually all you should get of that particular card from the average booster box, If you got more than 2 of some of the uncommons in the box, then you likely also got less than 2 of others in the box to balance that out, but really, 2 is about what you should expect being the 1.8 of each uncommon per box average when you have 3 uncommons per pack, 36 packs per box, and thusly 108 uncommons per box, and with 60 uncommons in the set, that is 1.8 of each uncommon per box on the overall average.
Anyhow, I hope that explanation helps. As before, there is no truth to the assertion that in sets printed these days that they make certain uncommons rarer than other uncommons as far as how hard they are to pull from packs. What there is, is small sample sizes (in this case 1-3 boxes is a small sample size) and randomness/variance within small sample sizes and disappointment at not getting more of certain good cards leading to such beliefs.
There simply is no such thing. Perception gets skewed not just by random variance, but also by the fact that there are very few Fatal Pushes in stores due to everyone buying them. So, locked and gone.
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My Commander decks:
Chandra, Torch of Defiance - Oops! All Chandras.
Prime Speaker Zegana - Draw for Power.
Pir & Toothy - Counterpalooza.
Arcades, the Strategist - Another Brick in the Wall.
Zacama, Primal Calamity - Calamity of Double Mana.
Edgar Markov - Vampires Don't Die.
Child of Alara - Dreamcrusher.
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Although i'm pretty excited about the reprints, i have a strong feeling that uncommons in the MM17 set will actually have a ''fatal push style'' rarity. Based on other peoples' and my own experience, fatal push, despite being uncommon, only has a couple of copies inside a whole Aether Revolt booster box.
That's exactly what i think will happen with all the valuable uncommons printed in the new set (path to exile, inquisition of Kozilek, etc). Hyping everyone up with the promise of super cool cards been given in loads, this set will sell a lot. Only a few packs will contain these, while the rest will be filled with junkier, less valuable uncommons.
Still, the set has a lot of excellent cards so far and will certainly have high value hidden inside every booster pack, that's why i'll buy a few no matter what
UW Azorius Control
Modern
UW Azorius Control
Not that this thread belongs here, but I'll take the bait anyway. How many copies of Fatal Push were you expecting in your box? People seem to forget that you will only see ~1.8 copies of any given Uncommon per booster box of Aether Revolt:
[(36 packs/box)*(3 Uncommons/pack)]/(60 Uncommons in Aether Revolt) = 1.8 copies of a specific uncommon per box
Rumors of Fatal Push being a "rarer" Uncommon are unsubstantiated -- there are occasions where a Common is slightly more common or more rare than all the others in the set due to layout of print sheets, but this does not affect distribution of Uncommons.
This.
Randomization happens. Pulled 4 copies of Fretwork Colony in my Kaladesh prerelease pool and only 2 out of 2 booster boxes afterward. Does it sounds like WotC is conspiring to make that dull piece of cardboard ultra secret rare at uncommon slot? Come on!
The point is that i still believe this is a great way to promote sales whether this is true or not. Everyone wants to see strong cards printed in uncommon rarity, hoping to get multiple copies when opening a box and that is what drives people into buying more product.
UW Azorius Control
Modern
UW Azorius Control
I used to own/run the magic singles part of a local gaming store for 6 years and typically opened 100+ boxes of each new set as they came out, and for each and every set opened (no matter similar beliefs for nearly every set with good uncommons,etc) the distribution of uncommons always ended up even in the end. Sure, as with all variance, some boxes would have more, and some would have less, same for individual cases. The odds of pulling specific uncommons from a single box depends on the size of the set. In the case of a smaller set with 60 uncommons in the set, you will get on average 1.8 of each uncommon per box. This means that while you will get 2 of most of the uncommons in the box, you will also only get 1 of some, and of course with randomized distributions of cards, you will end up in situations where you may get, on occasion, 3 of a particular uncommon, and very rare occasions where you may get zero of a particular uncommon. But as you open more boxes and cases, the variance will take care of itself and you will end up with an even amount of each of the uncommons.
In regards to the original post of the thread where it mentions about only getting 2 fatal push out of a single booster box, as mentioned with the math above, 2 is actually all you should get of that particular card from the average booster box, If you got more than 2 of some of the uncommons in the box, then you likely also got less than 2 of others in the box to balance that out, but really, 2 is about what you should expect being the 1.8 of each uncommon per box average when you have 3 uncommons per pack, 36 packs per box, and thusly 108 uncommons per box, and with 60 uncommons in the set, that is 1.8 of each uncommon per box on the overall average.
Anyhow, I hope that explanation helps. As before, there is no truth to the assertion that in sets printed these days that they make certain uncommons rarer than other uncommons as far as how hard they are to pull from packs. What there is, is small sample sizes (in this case 1-3 boxes is a small sample size) and randomness/variance within small sample sizes and disappointment at not getting more of certain good cards leading to such beliefs.
Chandra, Torch of Defiance - Oops! All Chandras.
Prime Speaker Zegana - Draw for Power.
Pir & Toothy - Counterpalooza.
Arcades, the Strategist - Another Brick in the Wall.
Zacama, Primal Calamity - Calamity of Double Mana.
Edgar Markov - Vampires Don't Die.
Child of Alara - Dreamcrusher.