Ulvenwald Mysteries is worth a shot in constructed. There's definitely going to be a Mad Vamp Aggro deck rolling around, then whatever curve-out-into-Nissa shell shows up, and Atarka Red is taking a hit but probably not quite dead. Being able to trade or chump aggressively, then spending a turn reloading your hand and filling the board with chaff to cover for you as you deploy your new board state seems like a good way to weather the initial assault. This coming Standard has too many decks I want to try out, I'm looking forward to it.
Oh look, they decided to continue Zendikar's theme of ruining otherwise good land art with geometric crap. First hedrons, now cryptolyphs. God dammit WotC.
Also this is all they're spoiling today? Not a bad card but that's all we get after waiting a weekend?
Didn't they already use that one GY swamp art in the original Innistrad? That's a little bit random.
Check out those clouds in the Plains arts though... That looks kinda ominous. Do I see tentacles?
That Devil looks spectacular. Hooo BOY.
If a MOON-SIZED HERON actually shows up in this block that is gonna be about the dumbest thing ever. Sorry, ardeidaeophiles..
The Devil looks painfull in Limited, constructed not so much, as explained above. I love to take 1 to get your lightning bolt in your graveyard.
And i draw another bolt and you took 4 damage in a turn and i have a 3/2 menace in the field yet
And then I draw my pieces to summon Exodia.
You don't really seem to understand how mill works mathematically. Using the argument that you can put their bolt in the graveyard with it is true but you are still taking 1 damage for 0 cards or mana then.
You cannot judge it by what you are hoping to mill with it, that extra card shown could just as easily dig you towards the card yo need instead.
Sure, you got to remove a bolt they needed. In most cases yo will not reveal a 4-of in a deck but rather he will dig one extra card towards it. There are a LOT of math about this and basically you cannot judge mill by what you hope to hit.
Sin Prodder wow that one looks intersting as hell. Red-bob.
Big downside your opponent will never let you draw lands, with its ability.
Yeah that was my first reaction too but the only way that happens is every other card is a land. If the second card in your deck is ever a land (and that's the same odds as the top of your deck being a land) you will get to to draw it
Sin Prodder looks hella hype for a 3-drop. I could see him in a few Modern decks.
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I really want to make a casual modern "sleuth"/"clues" deck and add Woodland Sleuth from original Innistrad. Morbid even works with Ulvenwald Mysteries
Sin prodder doesn't guarantee you a card. For those that are comparing it to Dark Confidant, the whole point of it was to get an extra draw at the cost of life. Since Jund/Junk has low CMC and high land counts, it was very useful this way.
The scenarios that the prodder presents are not entirely great:
If you need a land and the card revealed is a land, you will not get it. You lose the draw you needed. The next card drawn is independent of this, however, you just lost a piece.
If you reveal a spell, on average, losing life on small spells is always better than to let you draw the spell. So for standard RDW, this guy will probably deal a few damage while preventing you from drawing a nicely costed card.
So this card cannot be cast early in limited, it cannot give great value in standard unless more revealed cards make it work (delve rotates out after all), it cannot compete with bob in modern.
For those jumping in yelling "RTFC it doesn't replace the draw step", we know that. We're saying your opponent will always bin your lands on the trigger. So if you needed it, you won't get it.
Well the subsequent draw is random (assuming no scries) so them binning a land drop that you need or a good spell doesn't affect your draw step at all. I don't see many scenarios where you actually get an extra card from this; it comes down to whether a 3/2 menace that can deal some free damage is good enough or not.
For those jumping in yelling "RTFC it doesn't replace the draw step", we know that. We're saying your opponent will always bin your lands on the trigger. So if you needed it, you won't get it.
Perhaps the problem is you don't understand probability? The chance of drawing a land on your draw step is the same regardless of whether or not you have Sin Prodder in play.
Sin prodder doesn't guarantee you a card. For those that are comparing it to Dark Confidant, the whole point of it was to get an extra draw at the cost of life. Since Jund/Junk has low CMC and high land counts, it was very useful this way.
The scenarios that the prodder presents are not entirely great:
If you need a land and the card revealed is a land, you will not get it. You lose the draw you needed. The next card drawn is independent of this, however, you just lost a piece.
If you reveal a spell, on average, losing life on small spells is always better than to let you draw the spell. So for standard RDW, this guy will probably deal a few damage while preventing you from drawing a nicely costed card.
So this card cannot be cast early in limited, it cannot give great value in standard unless more revealed cards make it work (delve rotates out after all), it cannot compete with bob in modern.
For those jumping in yelling "RTFC it doesn't replace the draw step", we know that. We're saying your opponent will always bin your lands on the trigger. So if you needed it, you won't get it.
3 lands is usually pretty safe territory for fast red aggro decks which is the cost of this guy.
Fast aggro decks are also redundant. They might play 22 creatures with CMC 4 or less, and 16 burn spells, or whatever. A lot of aggro cards can be interchangeable.
oh boy a punisher mechanic card, here we go again:
The value of a "opponent chooses" mechanic is less than the least of any of its options, made worse by the variety in options, made better by your ability to manipulate the opponents choice.
This devil gives two things, either "burn to the face + card into GY" or "draw a card an opponent has seen". The opponent will choose whichever benefits you less in any circumstance. Hence this will never be as good as a flat draw nor as good as a flat burn, worse than either. However, for a 3-drop, having either a flat burn of ~2.5 damage per turn or a free card draw are both below the curve- even if this effect is worse, theres still a good chance its playable. But then you run into the disparity of the mechanics, and the whiff potential. The two mechanics serve quite different purposes. Unless you're running burn, your card draws might not convert directly to damage, so preventing you from developing a board and losing a resource that matters nothing until they die are two very different things- the mechanic is made significantly worse overall. And then it whiffs completely on lands, where the opponent can just bin them, so 1/3 of the time theres no real choice. Finally, you have very little ability to manipulate the opponents choice here. Unlike if you drew the card and then discarded it at an opponents behest, it doesn't combo with madness. It does combo with graveyard shenanigans however, but we don't have flashback, so its going to be harder to get value out of cards going to your bin.
Doesn't look very good to me overall, but maybe if there was a large cycle of lands doing work from your graveyard it would matter
Well the subsequent draw is random (assuming no scries) so them binning a land drop that you need or a good spell doesn't affect your draw step at all. I don't see many scenarios where you actually get an extra card from this; it comes down to whether a 3/2 menace that can deal some free damage is good enough or not.
Wrong because now your deck has 1 less land available for draw. Whereas you could've drawn it, you skipped a draw. Now let's say you needed different colors and you binned a land of a color you needed, now you're in an even worst situation. This is a big gamble in limited.
Sin prodder doesn't guarantee you a card. For those that are comparing it to Dark Confidant, the whole point of it was to get an extra draw at the cost of life. Since Jund/Junk has low CMC and high land counts, it was very useful this way.
The scenarios that the prodder presents are not entirely great:
If you need a land and the card revealed is a land, you will not get it. You lose the draw you needed. The next card drawn is independent of this, however, you just lost a piece.
If you reveal a spell, on average, losing life on small spells is always better than to let you draw the spell. So for standard RDW, this guy will probably deal a few damage while preventing you from drawing a nicely costed card.
So this card cannot be cast early in limited, it cannot give great value in standard unless more revealed cards make it work (delve rotates out after all), it cannot compete with bob in modern.
For those jumping in yelling "RTFC it doesn't replace the draw step", we know that. We're saying your opponent will always bin your lands on the trigger. So if you needed it, you won't get it.
Again, not how mill works. If you reveal a land and bin it then yeah, you have lost a land. But the math evens out since it is more likely that you will reveal a non land than a land and you will most of the time actually dig towards that land instead of milling it.
Just as you cannot justify playing a spell that mills 4 cards by saying that you could mill their wincon you cannot put the possibility of miling certain cards as a downside. The chances of revealing a card you want relates to the chance that you will rather dig towards whant you want and the end result is completely even.
Let's make a very simply example. You have a four card deck, three cards do nothing and one says "You win the game".
Now you reveal the top card with this guy:
You have a 1/4 risk of revealing the card you want but you have a 3/4 chance of digging closer to the needed card instead giving you a 1/3 chance to hit it at your next draw step instead of the 1/4 you would have without the collector.
Let's say you mill something irrelevant and miss with the sincritter. Now you have two cards in the library. There is a 1/2 chance that you will reveal and mill the wincard but there is exactly as large of a chance that this dude will actually dig you towards that same card.
Bascially, when you evaluate a card based on potential milling of wincons you are doing it wrong. And on top of that cards in the graveyard eem to have a very real upside this set so if you get a chance to mill cards from your library you generally want to do that.
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Can't wait to hear people losing to Sin Confidant in a couple of weeks.
When your opponent's life is below 10 (which happens quick in RDW), Sin Prodder becomes a pseudo punisher that seems to rival that of Desecration Demon.
I hope this is a cycle of Bob creatures.
Got the black one and the red one. Where's the other colors?!
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Fiery Temper cost 3, if they dump it, they take 3, if they let you keep it...You can discard it to do 3 for R...win-win situation there
Yeah, I realized that just as I finished typing. Made an edit to my post which explains it
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People, myself included, thought he was bad because your opponent got to choose the card.
Yeah, but you're still getting a card.
The difference between Sin Prodder and Tasigur is they don't have to give you a card at all. Sin Prodder is not a card advantage engine, it is a damage engine that will sometimes give you a card when doing so is worse than doing damage.
Edit: Consider the following card:
Sin Poker 2R
Creature- Devil
Menace
At the beginning of your upkeep, put the top card of your library into your graveyard. Target opponent takes damage equal to that card's converted mana cost.
3/2
Now remember that Sin Prodder is weaker than this card in general because whenever you getting the card is worse than them taking the damage is when you'll get a card. Note: I'm not commenting on the card's playability, just upon how a person should analyze it.
Even as a punisher mechanic, it's still only upside. A 3/2 menace for 3 is already decent, so if you can flip a non-land even once it's probably worth it. Just to reiterate, it doesn't replace your normal draw.
The more I think about it, the more I think Sin Prodder is just a fixed Goblin Rabblemaster. Either your opponent could deal with Rabblemaster triggers, in which case you played a Grey Ogre, or they couldn't, in which case you win on turn 5. With Sin Prodder, if your opponent can deal with it, it's a Boggart Brute, which is not great but is immeasurably more playable than Grey Ogre. If they can't stop you from getting a few triggers out of it, you don't outright win, but you generate a substantial amount of virtual card advantage off your 3-drop. I think the card will definitely see play, because while it won't lead to turn 4-5 nut draws, it will still take over the game some percent of the time, and the floor is far higher, seeing as it's not the worst beater on its own.
I love the people who vehemently state that any "punisher" card is automatically 100% unplayable garbage. Even if he gives you 2.5 damage/turn, a (3 + 2.5) power creature with menace for 3 doesn't sound below the curve to me. Furthermore, he enables delirium.
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Sin prodder doesn't guarantee you a card. For those that are comparing it to Dark Confidant, the whole point of it was to get an extra draw at the cost of life. Since Jund/Junk has low CMC and high land counts, it was very useful this way.
The scenarios that the prodder presents are not entirely great:
If you need a land and the card revealed is a land, you will not get it. You lose the draw you needed. The next card drawn is independent of this, however, you just lost a piece.
If you reveal a spell, on average, losing life on small spells is always better than to let you draw the spell. So for standard RDW, this guy will probably deal a few damage while preventing you from drawing a nicely costed card.
So this card cannot be cast early in limited, it cannot give great value in standard unless more revealed cards make it work (delve rotates out after all), it cannot compete with bob in modern.
For those jumping in yelling "RTFC it doesn't replace the draw step", we know that. We're saying your opponent will always bin your lands on the trigger. So if you needed it, you won't get it.
The probability of the land or spell you need being the second from the top card and getting milled by Sin Prodder is exactly the same as the card being on the bottom of your deck, meaning you wouldn't have even seen it in the first place. On top of that, as has already been stated, the cards being in the graveyard is often better than being stuck in your library.
That means the game resulting from milling a card you need is exactly the same as a game where you wouldn't have drawn it (if not better depending on your graveyard interactions). Unless you are able to order parts of your deck you can only treat it as random. This is why cards that mill oneself aren't often considered to have a drawback, but often an advantage.
Meh. That's all I have to say about the cards themselves.
There is both good art and horrible art in these spoilers. The Sin Prodder art is some of the worst I've seen in MTG in a long time IMO. The devil on it looks so much like blatantly fake CGI. The basics, though, are a thing of beauty especially the Andreas Rocha island.
Well the subsequent draw is random (assuming no scries) so them binning a land drop that you need or a good spell doesn't affect your draw step at all. I don't see many scenarios where you actually get an extra card from this; it comes down to whether a 3/2 menace that can deal some free damage is good enough or not.
Wrong because now your deck has 1 less land available for draw. Whereas you could've drawn it, you skipped a draw. Now let's say you needed different colors and you binned a land of a color you needed, now you're in an even worst situation. This is a big gamble in limited.
You mention this is a big gamble in limited, but most of us have been discussing constructed, so...
How often do you see aggressive red decks hurting for not drawing their fourth land in constructed? I usually am sad to see that extra land, so in most red decks I see this as a benefit, not a hurt. Also, just because a card is good, doesn't make it good in every deck - even Bob doesn't work in some decks due to the life loss (and no, I don't think this is as good as Bob, I'm just using a creature that is pretty universally considered good). This may not be what you want if you need land in hand after turn 3. But, you still have another draw each turn, so I see this more likely to reduce mana flood than to short you on the mana side of things. I have a deck that is mostly 1-3 CMC, but has Goblin Dark-Dwellers at 5 CMC - I wouldn't mind running this in that deck since not getting to 5 CMC ASAP isn't the critical path. And making them choose 5 damage or letting me have the goblin would be fun (sure, I'd prefer to draw the card, but CANNOT complain about a 5 point burn spell for free with my 3 drop - that's going to win games right there when it happens).
Perhaps the problem is you don't understand probability? The chance of drawing a land on your draw step is the same regardless of whether or not you have Sin Collector in play.
I just did the math and I am right. So please provide the math to prove your point. If you cannot, do not claim others don't understand stats or probabilities.
Didn't they already use that one GY swamp art in the original Innistrad? That's a little bit random.
Check out those clouds in the Plains arts though... That looks kinda ominous. Do I see tentacles?
That Devil looks spectacular. Hooo BOY.
If a MOON-SIZED HERON actually shows up in this block that is gonna be about the dumbest thing ever. Sorry, ardeidaeophiles..
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Fiery Temper cost 3, if they dump it, they take 3, if they let you keep it...You can discard it to do 3 for R...win-win situation there
Yeah that was my first reaction too but the only way that happens is every other card is a land. If the second card in your deck is ever a land (and that's the same odds as the top of your deck being a land) you will get to to draw it
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Sin Prodder doesn't interact with madness
Edit: nvm 3 CmC. I got ya
Well the subsequent draw is random (assuming no scries) so them binning a land drop that you need or a good spell doesn't affect your draw step at all. I don't see many scenarios where you actually get an extra card from this; it comes down to whether a 3/2 menace that can deal some free damage is good enough or not.
UR Blue-Red Control
Modern:
UBR Grixis Control
UWR Jeskai Control
Edit: Agreed, Dark Confidant is still better in modern.
3 lands is usually pretty safe territory for fast red aggro decks which is the cost of this guy.
Fast aggro decks are also redundant. They might play 22 creatures with CMC 4 or less, and 16 burn spells, or whatever. A lot of aggro cards can be interchangeable.
You are forced to dump Falkenrath Gorger and you end up drawing Zurgo Bellstriker or whatever the aggro drops are. They mill Fiery Impulse and you draw Fiery Temper. etc
The value of a "opponent chooses" mechanic is less than the least of any of its options, made worse by the variety in options, made better by your ability to manipulate the opponents choice.
This devil gives two things, either "burn to the face + card into GY" or "draw a card an opponent has seen". The opponent will choose whichever benefits you less in any circumstance. Hence this will never be as good as a flat draw nor as good as a flat burn, worse than either. However, for a 3-drop, having either a flat burn of ~2.5 damage per turn or a free card draw are both below the curve- even if this effect is worse, theres still a good chance its playable. But then you run into the disparity of the mechanics, and the whiff potential. The two mechanics serve quite different purposes. Unless you're running burn, your card draws might not convert directly to damage, so preventing you from developing a board and losing a resource that matters nothing until they die are two very different things- the mechanic is made significantly worse overall. And then it whiffs completely on lands, where the opponent can just bin them, so 1/3 of the time theres no real choice. Finally, you have very little ability to manipulate the opponents choice here. Unlike if you drew the card and then discarded it at an opponents behest, it doesn't combo with madness. It does combo with graveyard shenanigans however, but we don't have flashback, so its going to be harder to get value out of cards going to your bin.
Doesn't look very good to me overall, but maybe if there was a large cycle of lands doing work from your graveyard it would matter
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UUUMerfolksUUU
RGoblinsR
Ad Nauseam
BR 8 Racks RB
WUB Mill BUW
Legacy:
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Again, not how mill works. If you reveal a land and bin it then yeah, you have lost a land. But the math evens out since it is more likely that you will reveal a non land than a land and you will most of the time actually dig towards that land instead of milling it.
Just as you cannot justify playing a spell that mills 4 cards by saying that you could mill their wincon you cannot put the possibility of miling certain cards as a downside. The chances of revealing a card you want relates to the chance that you will rather dig towards whant you want and the end result is completely even.
Let's make a very simply example. You have a four card deck, three cards do nothing and one says "You win the game".
Now you reveal the top card with this guy:
You have a 1/4 risk of revealing the card you want but you have a 3/4 chance of digging closer to the needed card instead giving you a 1/3 chance to hit it at your next draw step instead of the 1/4 you would have without the collector.
Let's say you mill something irrelevant and miss with the sincritter. Now you have two cards in the library. There is a 1/2 chance that you will reveal and mill the wincard but there is exactly as large of a chance that this dude will actually dig you towards that same card.
Bascially, when you evaluate a card based on potential milling of wincons you are doing it wrong. And on top of that cards in the graveyard eem to have a very real upside this set so if you get a chance to mill cards from your library you generally want to do that.
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When your opponent's life is below 10 (which happens quick in RDW), Sin Prodder becomes a pseudo punisher that seems to rival that of Desecration Demon.
I hope this is a cycle of Bob creatures.
Got the black one and the red one. Where's the other colors?!
Yeah, I realized that just as I finished typing. Made an edit to my post which explains it
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The difference between Sin Prodder and Tasigur is they don't have to give you a card at all. Sin Prodder is not a card advantage engine, it is a damage engine that will sometimes give you a card when doing so is worse than doing damage.
Edit: Consider the following card:
Sin Poker 2R
Creature- Devil
Menace
At the beginning of your upkeep, put the top card of your library into your graveyard. Target opponent takes damage equal to that card's converted mana cost.
3/2
Now remember that Sin Prodder is weaker than this card in general because whenever you getting the card is worse than them taking the damage is when you'll get a card. Note: I'm not commenting on the card's playability, just upon how a person should analyze it.
MTG finance guy- follow me on Twitter@RichArschmann or RichardArschmann on Reddit
That means the game resulting from milling a card you need is exactly the same as a game where you wouldn't have drawn it (if not better depending on your graveyard interactions). Unless you are able to order parts of your deck you can only treat it as random. This is why cards that mill oneself aren't often considered to have a drawback, but often an advantage.
There is both good art and horrible art in these spoilers. The Sin Prodder art is some of the worst I've seen in MTG in a long time IMO. The devil on it looks so much like blatantly fake CGI. The basics, though, are a thing of beauty especially the Andreas Rocha island.
You mention this is a big gamble in limited, but most of us have been discussing constructed, so...
How often do you see aggressive red decks hurting for not drawing their fourth land in constructed? I usually am sad to see that extra land, so in most red decks I see this as a benefit, not a hurt. Also, just because a card is good, doesn't make it good in every deck - even Bob doesn't work in some decks due to the life loss (and no, I don't think this is as good as Bob, I'm just using a creature that is pretty universally considered good). This may not be what you want if you need land in hand after turn 3. But, you still have another draw each turn, so I see this more likely to reduce mana flood than to short you on the mana side of things. I have a deck that is mostly 1-3 CMC, but has Goblin Dark-Dwellers at 5 CMC - I wouldn't mind running this in that deck since not getting to 5 CMC ASAP isn't the critical path. And making them choose 5 damage or letting me have the goblin would be fun (sure, I'd prefer to draw the card, but CANNOT complain about a 5 point burn spell for free with my 3 drop - that's going to win games right there when it happens).
RETIRED - GAME SUCKS
Modern:
UUUMerfolksUUU
RGoblinsR
Ad Nauseam
BR 8 Racks RB
WUB Mill BUW
Legacy:
XOps! All splels! X
What I think of MaRo