Actually this makes it worse, this does nothing for decreasing demand for the card, in fact it just raises the price. So yeah, the complaining is just starting.
PS I guess people will keep complaining nevertheless: you wanted an accessible reprint, now you have and you complain.
The solution for an in-demand, $10 common rarity card is a reprint at the common level (MAYBE upshifted to uncommon) in a set, duel deck, or some other mass-produced product that is easily and cheaply accessible. For a company to say that a limited-time, limited-availability, alternate-art, promo foil, that will likely command $20 or more, is a good idea as a SOLUTION to that problem is both laughable and insulting.
I think wizards focus is creating sets that sell seeing as how they don't really recognize the secondary market. Once they see failure to reprint certain staples will actually hurt how well MM15 does they will reprint more cards. Or to increase sales they wanted to spread the staples out forcing people to buy multiple sets worth of boxes rather then saying here's one set that fixes everything you don't ever need to buy another box of MTG. that would be bad sales. At least if it was my company I would spread them out evenly.
PS I guess people will keep complaining nevertheless: you wanted an accessible reprint, now you have and you complain.
The solution for an in-demand, $10 common rarity card is a reprint at the common level (MAYBE upshifted to uncommon) in a set, duel deck, or some other mass-produced product that is easily and cheaply accessible. For a company to say that a limited-time, limited-availability, alternate-art, promo foil, that will likely command $20 or more, is a good idea as a SOLUTION to that problem is both laughable and insulting.
This SO much.
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A mirror, a shield, a promise, a great distance, and a kind word-- five ways to avoid harm.
For a company to say that a limited-time, limited-availability, alternate-art, promo foil, that will likely command $20 or more, is a good idea as a SOLUTION to that problem is both laughable and insulting.
Not to sound insensitive, but if it's really worth $20 or more, that seems awesome for those of us who go to FNM. I'm excited, free drafts this summer!
For a company to say that a limited-time, limited-availability, alternate-art, promo foil, that will likely command $20 or more, is a good idea as a SOLUTION to that problem is both laughable and insulting.
Not to sound insensitive, but if it's really worth $20 or more, that seems awesome for those of us who go to FNM. I'm excited, free drafts this summer!
Oh my main squeeze is Standard and am very much looking forward to getting my hands on a few during FNM. But it would be much better served printed in MM15, or hopefully Origins/BFZ.
Actually this makes it worse, this does nothing for decreasing demand for the card, in fact it just raises the price. So yeah, the complaining is just starting.
Saw that coming the moment there was no visions in MM.... yeah a MUCH better idea would of been to have it in MM and as a promo.
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SonofaBith - Wizards was so excited about making the packaging for Modern Masters 2 recyclable, they decided to make most of the rares and all but 1 of the UC's recycle-bin ready too. Convenient!
Oh man.... jsust got 4 boxes with 1 mythic only in that simulater... one box had a comet storm :(. Is that really possible to only get 1 mythic?
Very. There were M12 boxes with zero mythics onboard. I think they've fixed their distribution a bit since then to ensure you get at least one, but I certainly expect that this is still possible.
Curse whoever originally posted the sealed box generator link. CURSE YOU I SAY! I've probably generated 50 boxes so far. My best box value so far was $635 (foil goyf). I know the value calculations are dubious at best but still, fun to know. Although I'm not sure how accurate it is. I've pulled 6 goyfs (2 foil) in that small sample.
Curse whoever originally posted the sealed box generator link. CURSE YOU I SAY! I've probably generated 50 boxes so far. My best box value so far was $635 (foil goyf). I know the value calculations are dubious at best but still, fun to know. Although I'm not sure how accurate it is. I've pulled 6 goyfs (2 foil) in that small sample.
I stopped using the simulator the second I opened a $700 box with 10 mythics and 3 of the same rare. It's algorithms are fine for a single pack however it doesn't take into consideration the guarantee of two mythics per box and they absolute rare max of 4 excluding foils. However if you get comet storm and like tezzeret you could literally open a box worth less then $50. It's actually possible to open a box worse the DTK
If I decide for some ungodly reason to open my box on the 24th instead of trade it like a smart man I will post my results.
All this is part of the gamble of cracking boxes though. If you want value, you'll never ever crack packs. The enjoyment of cracking boxes and opening something awesome outweighs the gamble that i might get nothing worth it in the box. If i can open my box, make 4 sealed decks to play with friends, then that goes a long way to value FOR ME. If i get a foil Goyf, then awesome, bonus!
I've opened $500 boxes of basketball cards with under $50 of value in them before. I've also opened the exact same product and scored a $2000 card as well. That's just the nature of cracking boxes. Any sane collector would spend that $1000 on something they need, but that's just not fun to do all the time, and you don't get that chance of hitting the home run card.
You'll never find a product where your EV is really close to what you're paying, it doesn't make sense. Cracking boxes in anything is equivalent to playing slot machines.
I can totally understand this disappointment in the set for so many people, it would just be nice for the people who are still looking forward to it to be able to without being spoken down to about it that's all.
Whenever I see a set like this, I don't care about the value. I think purely in terms of draft environment. Honestly
I do think it could be more fun, I woulda like splinter twin as a viable combo here, but I'll wait and see. I'll at the very least give it a try.
Whenever I see a set like this, I don't care about the value. I think purely in terms of draft environment. Honestly
I do think it could be more fun, I woulda like splinter twin as a viable combo here, but I'll wait and see. I'll at the very least give it a try.
Agree with this. Getting the play out of them is half the fun. Whether it's enjoyable it's hard to tell yet, but not long till we find out.
For everyone who keeps talking about opening packs as a gamble: magic isn't scratch off tickets. The reason you buy packs from a set is because you approve of the set. The good work that went into the set is what you pay for. Not the off-chance you might get the prize rare from the set. Buying packs is your way of saying "Wizards, you did a good job." Not "I hope I get rich off of this pack!" Any time you start appealing to ideas of 'expected value' you're already outside of the right mindset. And I don't think that's your fault. This set was not designed well. The players are unhappy. We should all resist the writers who make money working for sites that sell cards who will try to convince us that Wizards did the right thing here despite our intuitive understanding that this set is garbage. My advice: just stay with the formats you already enjoy for a little longer till the next thing comes along. I personally won't be buying any MM2. And I don't think you should either. If too many people do buy these packs, we'll be sending mixed signals to Wizards. And this time calls for a clear and definite response.
For everyone who keeps talking about opening packs as a gamble: magic isn't scratch off tickets. The reason you buy packs from a set is because you approve of the set. The good work that went into the set is what you pay for. Not the off-chance you might get the prize rare from the set. Buying packs is your way of saying "Wizards, you did a good job." Not "I hope I get rich off of this pack!" Any time you start appealing to ideas of 'expected value' you're already outside of the right mindset. And I don't think that's your fault. This set was not designed well. The players are unhappy. We should all resist the writers who make money working for sites that sell cards who will try to convince us that Wizards did the right thing here despite our intuitive understanding that this set is garbage. My advice: just stay with the formats you already enjoy for a little longer till the next thing comes along. I personally won't be buying any MM2. And I don't think you should either. If too many people do buy these packs, we'll be sending mixed signals to Wizards. And this time calls for a clear and definite response.
Completely agree with this. It should be about how much you want to enjoy using the product first and foremost, value is secondary (yet still has an importance level of course) to me.
Agreed. But I think people still want decent odds because their not rich. Like I love cracking packs. Taking the pack. Adding two of each land to it and playing my friend to see who can win with those 15 cards. The original pack wars and it's super fun. So I'm okay opening s box and only getting $200 in value if I spent $250. My issue with that is what if I want to have fun prepared to lose s little money in singles but then all the sudden I open $50 when I spend $250. That's when their is a HUGE ISSUE. Losing money is expected and in okay paying $50 for hours and hours of fun. Pack wars and then sealed pools after if you keep them in piles of 6. So much fun!! That's what it should be about. But I shouldn't have to be afraid that I literally could open up $12 as my two mythics or even $20 as three mythics and I could open all dime unplayable rares as my other 21 rares. I should be guaranteed on maximum of my loss which is why I'm now trading my box. If whoever takes it cracks s foil goyf cool. I didn't buy it for s foil mythic. But I still expect a cryptic and hierarch to offset the jank. And that might not happen. Can anyone disagree with that. Losing 20% or gaining 20% is part of the box game. It shouldn't be losing 90% though.
Just because I am not too familiar with the people in design and development, is it a good thing that two of the six people on the team that made this set left MTG?
Agreed. But I think people still want decent odds because their not rich. Like I love cracking packs. Taking the pack. Adding two of each land to it and playing my friend to see who can win with those 15 cards. The original pack wars and it's super fun. So I'm okay opening s box and only getting $200 in value if I spent $250. My issue with that is what if I want to have fun prepared to lose s little money in singles but then all the sudden I open $50 when I spend $250. That's when their is a HUGE ISSUE. Losing money is expected and in okay paying $50 for hours and hours of fun. Pack wars and then sealed pools after if you keep them in piles of 6. So much fun!! That's what it should be about. But I shouldn't have to be afraid that I literally could open up $12 as my two mythics or even $20 as three mythics and I could open all dime unplayable rares as my other 21 rares. I should be guaranteed on maximum of my loss which is why I'm now trading my box. If whoever takes it cracks s foil goyf cool. I didn't buy it for s foil mythic. But I still expect a cryptic and hierarch to offset the jank. And that might not happen. Can anyone disagree with that. Losing 20% or gaining 20% is part of the box game. It shouldn't be losing 90% though.
I agree that would hurt to open that, but what are the chances of that happening? Without doing the maths myself, i'd guess the chances of pulling just the 2 worst mythics in a box would likely be harder to do than pulling a goyf which is around 1 in 5 boxes if i recall reading that somewhere correctly. If that happens , you've likely made a decent amount on your box. I honestly think that the overall product will see a majority of boxes falling into the lose 20% area, with the crap boxes and awesome boxes falling either side of that. If the worst you could do is lose 20% with a decent chance of hitting one out of the ballpark, i'm pretty sure this product would really quickly rise in price to relatively high levels like the last MM is at now. Even before the spoilers the price was steadily rising, and if they had the 10 or so cards that everyone was begging for, they'd be much higher now as well.
It's a delicate balance imo, you can make everyone happy with all the cards that are being begged for, but then people get upset when box prices rise accordingly.
What if wizards made sure that every box contains at least 2-3 money mythics and 4-6 money rares? This way they would reward all those buyers who are willing to spend their life savings on boxes and on the other hand flip a finger to all you guys who wanted to cheap out on them. This way everyone that bought a box will be satisfied with their "gamble" and will be willing to buy the next overpriced set. This would mean there are no 2 - 4 comet storm boxes nor 10 mythic boxes. All in all they would retain the illusion of a "gamble" and make sure everybody who spent enough won the lottery, but evenly distribute the value so nobody actually gets too much or too little, making all their bigger (buy at least one box) customers effectively happy...
In fact if wizards were to distribute the card value blindly (like the generator does) it would be bad for business, just wouldn't make any sense not to regulate the distribution. Anywayz we'll see when we open our boxes if anyone gets the 3x foil goyf box and 3x foil comet box
It is known that the distribution of rares is not truly random, but that doesn't mean it is guided by an intent. Rather, it's an artifact of the printing and packaging process. We don't really know enough about this process to know if WotC has the ability to easily and costlessly rig boxes the way you propose, but I think your assessment of the business advantage of doing so is wrong. When you open a Comet Storm, would you prefer to think it was bad luck or the specific capricious whims of someone at WotC? I know many here will err on the latter anyhow, but no reason to make that actually true.
Pretty sure the box distribution is a lot better these days. I've purchased maybe 10 boxes from the khans block and each of those had 4-5 mythics in them (not including foil mythics). Haven't had a double of the same mythic either. I know small sample size and of course there will be exceptions, but i've also read a lot about wizards improving this aspect. (i may be wrong about all of this, it's just my limited observations plus what i've read).
I did see a video of 8-9 mythic box of Gatecrash i believe it was. Many doubles too, that was strange. Can't remember ever seeing any no mythic boxes though, although i'm sure there has been.
Pretty sure the box distribution is a lot better these days. I've purchased maybe 10 boxes from the khans block and each of those had 4-5 mythics in them (not including foil mythics). Haven't had a double of the same mythic either. I know small sample size and of course there will be exceptions, but i've also read a lot about wizards improving this aspect. (i may be wrong about all of this, it's just my limited observations plus what i've read).
I did see a video of 8-9 mythic box of Gatecrash i believe it was. Many doubles too, that was strange. Can't remember ever seeing any no mythic boxes though, although i'm sure there has been.
The distribution of mythics is actually known. That information had been released previously. Regular MTG booster boxes contain 3.5 mythics on average. It's an average. I bought a case of scars of Morrison and in one of my boxes I had 6 mythics plus a foil box opal. Yes I sold my collection 1 year before prices sky rocketed. The mythic ratio on a MM box is 2.5 but yes you can pull 2 or 5 in that box. Even a $20 mythic plus comet storm would be a terrible box even if it was three mythics and you got comet storm as one of them and the other two 10-20 dollars a piece would be bad if you pulled all jank rares. It's the rares plus comet storm that scared me. There should not be a 50 cent mythic. That was their biggest mistake. No the boxes aren't random. But which rare you get is random in your box. They might put an exact number of rares and mythics in. But they don't say hey this box is getting two all Suns dawn and this one isn't getting any. That part is random. Even a box with emrakul and Karn can still be less then $100 in value if you open up all junk rares. The $50 box might not happen. But two decent mythics can't carry a box price.
Logic dictates balance. If you can open a $500 box thanks to goyf which is 200% value. Logic dictates the lowest value you should be able to open is 50% or $125. Yet there will be more boxes below that ten at $500 as the chance of a foil goyf is one in 2162 booster packs. So Logic dictates only about one in 100 boxes should be less then $125. $125 is still a huge hit for a fun sealed player like myself to hit. Out of hundreds of boxes I have opened I never opened one less then $60 in value. Meaning since I preorder and receive them for $80 I've never lost more then 25% value and I've opened some at $150 in value. Why should MM be any different.
Sorry for reopening wounds. I love sealed type of play. I hate a set that scared me away from it due to funds.
and one more thing. i think the target group here isn't customers buying single boosters or playing a draft or two. The target group for wizards will always be customers buying boxes (especially with a set like this). and if that is true it's in your best interest as a business to keep those customers satisfied even at the cost of the other group being shown the finger... maybe i'm wrong though and i'll open a harakiri box with a playset of comets, then come back here crying how i got screwed over by wizards..
A box is not meant for singles. But it shouldn't have bad value to scare away all the event players and drafters. Those are the people who buy boxes. Collectors such as myself also buy boxes. But at this rate since all the commons and uncommons are a dime a piece there is no reason to buy a box. I don't mind sealed a normal release event even if I open a crap mythic and only one $5 rare. A it's easier to win more packs since it doesn't attract as high esteem players and B I only lose $15. Here you lose $75 for a sealed event. Almost a guarantee loss except for 2 out of 40 players in the room. Who get the goyfs.
I think MM15 is a good indicator of how little WotC actually understand their own game. I was all ready to buy a box or two, and I'm really glad I never handed cash over now.
I think these will be clogging shelves up for a long while, and stores will start selling them at cut price eventually, rather than inflated price. What I do fear is if WotC have a stupid moment and see this as another Chronicles moment and identify it as a failed product and never do it again because of low popularity rather than high price/low value, especially after the slow sales of the modern event deck.
Logic dictates balance. If you can open a $500 box thanks to goyf which is 200% value. Logic dictates the lowest value you should be able to open is 50% or $125.
This isn't logical at all. Assuming that you have a fifty-fifty chance of opening a $500 box and a box at value X, the way that you average out to the cost of a box is for X = 0. Same for any symmetric distribution centered around a mean of $250, the probability at 200% corresponds to the probability at 0%, not 50%.
In reality the distribution is skewed because of the high value of a few chase cards, but there is still no inherent correlation between 200% value and 50% value.
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Actually this makes it worse, this does nothing for decreasing demand for the card, in fact it just raises the price. So yeah, the complaining is just starting.
The solution for an in-demand, $10 common rarity card is a reprint at the common level (MAYBE upshifted to uncommon) in a set, duel deck, or some other mass-produced product that is easily and cheaply accessible. For a company to say that a limited-time, limited-availability, alternate-art, promo foil, that will likely command $20 or more, is a good idea as a SOLUTION to that problem is both laughable and insulting.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
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This SO much.
Not to sound insensitive, but if it's really worth $20 or more, that seems awesome for those of us who go to FNM. I'm excited, free drafts this summer!
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Saw that coming the moment there was no visions in MM.... yeah a MUCH better idea would of been to have it in MM and as a promo.
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Very. There were M12 boxes with zero mythics onboard. I think they've fixed their distribution a bit since then to ensure you get at least one, but I certainly expect that this is still possible.
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I stopped using the simulator the second I opened a $700 box with 10 mythics and 3 of the same rare. It's algorithms are fine for a single pack however it doesn't take into consideration the guarantee of two mythics per box and they absolute rare max of 4 excluding foils. However if you get comet storm and like tezzeret you could literally open a box worth less then $50. It's actually possible to open a box worse the DTK
If I decide for some ungodly reason to open my box on the 24th instead of trade it like a smart man I will post my results.
I've opened $500 boxes of basketball cards with under $50 of value in them before. I've also opened the exact same product and scored a $2000 card as well. That's just the nature of cracking boxes. Any sane collector would spend that $1000 on something they need, but that's just not fun to do all the time, and you don't get that chance of hitting the home run card.
You'll never find a product where your EV is really close to what you're paying, it doesn't make sense. Cracking boxes in anything is equivalent to playing slot machines.
I can totally understand this disappointment in the set for so many people, it would just be nice for the people who are still looking forward to it to be able to without being spoken down to about it that's all.
I do think it could be more fun, I woulda like splinter twin as a viable combo here, but I'll wait and see. I'll at the very least give it a try.
Agree with this. Getting the play out of them is half the fun. Whether it's enjoyable it's hard to tell yet, but not long till we find out.
Completely agree with this. It should be about how much you want to enjoy using the product first and foremost, value is secondary (yet still has an importance level of course) to me.
FNM promo means it has a smaller print run that if it was a MYTHIC in MM15.
I agree that would hurt to open that, but what are the chances of that happening? Without doing the maths myself, i'd guess the chances of pulling just the 2 worst mythics in a box would likely be harder to do than pulling a goyf which is around 1 in 5 boxes if i recall reading that somewhere correctly. If that happens , you've likely made a decent amount on your box. I honestly think that the overall product will see a majority of boxes falling into the lose 20% area, with the crap boxes and awesome boxes falling either side of that. If the worst you could do is lose 20% with a decent chance of hitting one out of the ballpark, i'm pretty sure this product would really quickly rise in price to relatively high levels like the last MM is at now. Even before the spoilers the price was steadily rising, and if they had the 10 or so cards that everyone was begging for, they'd be much higher now as well.
It's a delicate balance imo, you can make everyone happy with all the cards that are being begged for, but then people get upset when box prices rise accordingly.
It is known that the distribution of rares is not truly random, but that doesn't mean it is guided by an intent. Rather, it's an artifact of the printing and packaging process. We don't really know enough about this process to know if WotC has the ability to easily and costlessly rig boxes the way you propose, but I think your assessment of the business advantage of doing so is wrong. When you open a Comet Storm, would you prefer to think it was bad luck or the specific capricious whims of someone at WotC? I know many here will err on the latter anyhow, but no reason to make that actually true.
I did see a video of 8-9 mythic box of Gatecrash i believe it was. Many doubles too, that was strange. Can't remember ever seeing any no mythic boxes though, although i'm sure there has been.
The distribution of mythics is actually known. That information had been released previously. Regular MTG booster boxes contain 3.5 mythics on average. It's an average. I bought a case of scars of Morrison and in one of my boxes I had 6 mythics plus a foil box opal. Yes I sold my collection 1 year before prices sky rocketed. The mythic ratio on a MM box is 2.5 but yes you can pull 2 or 5 in that box. Even a $20 mythic plus comet storm would be a terrible box even if it was three mythics and you got comet storm as one of them and the other two 10-20 dollars a piece would be bad if you pulled all jank rares. It's the rares plus comet storm that scared me. There should not be a 50 cent mythic. That was their biggest mistake. No the boxes aren't random. But which rare you get is random in your box. They might put an exact number of rares and mythics in. But they don't say hey this box is getting two all Suns dawn and this one isn't getting any. That part is random. Even a box with emrakul and Karn can still be less then $100 in value if you open up all junk rares. The $50 box might not happen. But two decent mythics can't carry a box price.
Logic dictates balance. If you can open a $500 box thanks to goyf which is 200% value. Logic dictates the lowest value you should be able to open is 50% or $125. Yet there will be more boxes below that ten at $500 as the chance of a foil goyf is one in 2162 booster packs. So Logic dictates only about one in 100 boxes should be less then $125. $125 is still a huge hit for a fun sealed player like myself to hit. Out of hundreds of boxes I have opened I never opened one less then $60 in value. Meaning since I preorder and receive them for $80 I've never lost more then 25% value and I've opened some at $150 in value. Why should MM be any different.
Sorry for reopening wounds. I love sealed type of play. I hate a set that scared me away from it due to funds.
A box is not meant for singles. But it shouldn't have bad value to scare away all the event players and drafters. Those are the people who buy boxes. Collectors such as myself also buy boxes. But at this rate since all the commons and uncommons are a dime a piece there is no reason to buy a box. I don't mind sealed a normal release event even if I open a crap mythic and only one $5 rare. A it's easier to win more packs since it doesn't attract as high esteem players and B I only lose $15. Here you lose $75 for a sealed event. Almost a guarantee loss except for 2 out of 40 players in the room. Who get the goyfs.
I think these will be clogging shelves up for a long while, and stores will start selling them at cut price eventually, rather than inflated price. What I do fear is if WotC have a stupid moment and see this as another Chronicles moment and identify it as a failed product and never do it again because of low popularity rather than high price/low value, especially after the slow sales of the modern event deck.
This isn't logical at all. Assuming that you have a fifty-fifty chance of opening a $500 box and a box at value X, the way that you average out to the cost of a box is for X = 0. Same for any symmetric distribution centered around a mean of $250, the probability at 200% corresponds to the probability at 0%, not 50%.
In reality the distribution is skewed because of the high value of a few chase cards, but there is still no inherent correlation between 200% value and 50% value.