Anybody see prices on eBay now? Expecting every single one of my preorders will be cancelled if things stay this high over MSRP.
Just locked down 4 more boxes at $195 each, really debating doubling up to 8 boxes from that supplier at those prices.
DCA of $201 right now, could get it to $199.8 if I add four more... it's just a matter of if I want to continue to unbalance my investments by scooping these deals.
Anybody see prices on eBay now? Expecting every single one of my preorders will be cancelled if things stay this high over MSRP.
Just locked down 4 more boxes at $195 each, really debating doubling up to 8 boxes from that supplier at those prices.
DCA of $201 right now, could get it to $199.8 if I add four more... it's just a matter of if I want to continue to unbalance my investments by scooping these deals.
Where are you seeing them available for $200 each? I don't see that anywhere, but wish I bought more than I did (which was quite a few actually).
I think if they include Gemstone Mine and Bitterblossom and Wurmcoil that this set will be a beautiful amazement of cards and worth a TON in a year or two.
Where are you seeing them available for $200 each? I don't see that anywhere, but wish I bought more than I did (which was quite a few actually).
I think if they include Gemstone Mine and Bitterblossom and Wurmcoil that this set will be a beautiful amazement of cards and worth a TON in a year or two.
Small store somebody told me about. I'm giving the guy a finders fee for hooking me up. They have three more cases available for preorder too. I'm trying my hardest to resist loading up and buying out their inventory then flipping it, since I don't think that would be fair to the people who visit that store and/or play there.
Where are you seeing them available for $200 each? I don't see that anywhere, but wish I bought more than I did (which was quite a few actually).
I think if they include Gemstone Mine and Bitterblossom and Wurmcoil that this set will be a beautiful amazement of cards and worth a TON in a year or two.
Small store somebody told me about. I'm giving the guy a finders fee for hooking me up. They have three more cases available for preorder too. I'm trying my hardest to resist loading up and buying out their inventory then flipping it, since I don't think that would be fair to the people who visit that store and/or play there.
Agreed, but why would the store do that? They have to know they can sell for at least msrp. Seems ridiculous to me, but I'm in! Let me know which store!
Where are you seeing them available for $200 each? I don't see that anywhere, but wish I bought more than I did (which was quite a few actually).
I think if they include Gemstone Mine and Bitterblossom and Wurmcoil that this set will be a beautiful amazement of cards and worth a TON in a year or two.
Small store somebody told me about. I'm giving the guy a finders fee for hooking me up. They have three more cases available for preorder too. I'm trying my hardest to resist loading up and buying out their inventory then flipping it, since I don't think that would be fair to the people who visit that store and/or play there.
I just want to buy one of those boxes. My local store still doesn't know if he is getting any since he doesn't get stuff from WotC and has to buy 100% through distributors. I want to buy from him, but as we get closer and closer to launch I am afraid he isn't going to get any and I won't be able to get a box for Pack Wars for my wife and I.
"other than spellskite none of mox opal or anything have been confirmed so you cant be sure"
Etched champion being the first thing to be spoiled, getting new art and making mm2 cover is enough for me to make the assumption mox is gonna be there since it was missing in mm1 , it is a clear message from wizzard they make honor to affinity, so cant be 100% sure but its more likely 99% i would say
NO mox reprint i quit magic!!
they were not "missing" mox opal in mm1 as that set didnt include scars block or zendikar
I dont think its that hard. 2 stores are offering them at 190 cash or 200 credit card, no tax. Im not divulging information either as im thinking of buying out more than 3 boxes to flip for money as well.
My own store did a 10% discount on preorders and backed the tax out of it so essentially I got mine for... $204.00 approximately or $216.00 per box after paying the tax. Essentially I got to buy my two boxes locally at 85% of MSRP but was required to preorder it to get such a deal.
Our store did a 2 box limit though and even with that we have essentially sold it out at this point. I went through an online store to get another 2 boxes at MSRP (upside there is no tax concerns).
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I have officially moved to MTGNexus. I just wanted to let people know as my response time to salvation decks being bumped is very hit or miss.
You guys won't be able to flip boxes like before. It's a silly investment. You'll make more in the stock market. Unlike MM1 these will take a year or more before they get up to $300. Lol. Spend $600 so you can make a $150 profit. Seems pretty low return and a waste of time. Well I make a lot of money so maybe that's just me.
Edit: and you flippers are also a part of the reason the format is becoming ruined and why wizards just added more product to everyone to make flipping less reliable and to discourage it.
You guys won't be able to flip boxes like before. It's a silly investment. You'll make more in the stock market. Unlike MM1 these will take a year or more before they get up to $300. Lol. Spend $600 so you can make a $150 profit. Seems pretty low return and a waste of time. Well I make a lot of money so maybe that's just me.
You don't make jack. People who make a lot of money never mention it unless asked. You're probably some 17 year old high school student pecking away at his keyboard.
If you were wealthy, I'm sure you'd know that a 50% return on invested capital in one year is beyond phenomenal. I mean, if I spend $5k on MM 2015 booster boxes at a cost basis of $200 ea, and I can sell them for $300 next summer, I'm going to turn my $5k into $7.5k. That kicks the crap out of, say the S&P 500, returning 10% (which would be great!) and your $5k worth $5.5k. I aim for 7% returns (although it's been more like 20% these past few years in a bull market) from my stock investments, I feel that is a solid rate of return over the long run, and most would agree with me that ~4% over inflation is a good rate of return in a zero-interest rate environment.
Not to mention, where are you getting $600 to make $150? If prices move to $300, that's spending $600 to make $300. Even your example is a 25% return on capital in one year, that's awesome too! Low rate of return, ha. Thanks for the laugh. What do you consult in, how to lose money? At $200 a box purchase price I can sell them on eBay right now for a 15%+ profit after shipping costs and fees, to do nothing more than print a shipping label, cover up the old one with the new one, and set up a pickup on UPS.com. 15% return for 15 minutes worth of work isn't worth the effort and you're trying to come off like you've got money. Get outta here dude.
If you want to belittle anything about buying/flipping MM15 boxes, you should be criticizing the flippers risk assessment skills and/or tolerance, not the potential returns.
Edit: and you flippers are also a part of the reason the format is becoming ruined and why wizards just added more product to everyone to make flipping less reliable and to discourage it.
I realize its very early and we still haven't seen hardly anything from this set but I thought I would mention that as of this post SCG and CardKingdom are both asking $300.00 a box for MM2.
I think prices are going to be unstable until the launch and even then probably until we see what sort of a second wave to expect from wizards. It is concerning to be this far out from release with so little info and have the expensive guys already at $300 a box though.
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I have officially moved to MTGNexus. I just wanted to let people know as my response time to salvation decks being bumped is very hit or miss.
I realize its very early and we still haven't seen hardly anything from this set but I thought I would mention that as of this post SCG and CardKingdom are both asking $300.00 a box for MM2.
I think prices are going to be unstable until the launch and even then probably until we see what sort of a second wave to expect from wizards. It is concerning to be this far out from release with so little info and have the expensive guys already at $300 a box though.
I gotta say that I could see prices dipping into the $200/per region, but this isn't being printed like Chronicles or anything, if prices dip below MSRP, it will not be for long. I'm thinking we see around $200-$225 a box shortly after release (5/25-5/30) then prices moving up to around $250 (Late first week of June) and a creep towards $300ish (After Christmas). Just my two cents.
1) what sort of supply wizards gives
2) the average value per card
I think it has a lot of potential to do a lot of things and we honestly wont know until we see the full contents as well as how distribution and supply end up.
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I have officially moved to MTGNexus. I just wanted to let people know as my response time to salvation decks being bumped is very hit or miss.
I realize its very early and we still haven't seen hardly anything from this set but I thought I would mention that as of this post SCG and CardKingdom are both asking $300.00 a box for MM2.
I think prices are going to be unstable until the launch and even then probably until we see what sort of a second wave to expect from wizards. It is concerning to be this far out from release with so little info and have the expensive guys already at $300 a box though.
I gotta say that I could see prices dipping into the $200/per region, but this isn't being printed like Chronicles or anything, if prices dip below MSRP, it will not be for long. I'm thinking we see around $200-$225 a box shortly after release (5/25-5/30) then prices moving up to around $250 (Late first week of June) and a creep towards $300ish (After Christmas). Just my two cents.
I would not have a problem with that, kinda feels how alot of the MTG supplementary products work. AKA duel decks and planerchase products.
I really don't think stores are going to be selling their boxes for more than $240 are going to find any buyers at all. I was just at the mall today and I came across a new magic store. He told me he will be selling all of his boxes for $240. He is not taking any pre-orders. He was trying to tell me that it is against wizards rules to sell boxes and packs below msrp which seemed really weird since every store sells boxes for less then msrp. I really suspect that we are going to be surprised by the size of this print run. He said that he would be getting 3 boxes a week for the 9 months that this set is going to be in print. He might have said cases. The prices you guys are posting it seems as if MM price will be $200 a box. I looked on ebay prices are still around that $240 price point, seems as if more of the sales are for less than that.
Still waiting for the set to be spoiled, really I just want to draft it one time and I would like to have other people enjoy that same experience for a lower then msrp price. Three languages means at least 3 times the supply. I know there are lots of you guys with spread sheets tracking the ebay prices and estimating the number of tarmogofys a few pages back. I don't think anyone is going to be able to flip this and make money on it. It's just not worth the time or effort.
That 9 months number is ridiculous, ask around at some other stores and I think you'll find his numbers are off. Then he adds the "rule" about selling below MSRP? C'mon man are you that gullible? Unless WotC has totally lost their marbles and isn't afraid of destroying the Modern game, there is no way they're printing this set for 9 months. I'm not calling the new guy a liar or anything, but he's new... he probably doesn't know anything compared to the guys I've been talking to, who have been at this for 10-15 years.
The $200 price point is what I have been able to find boxes at with luck and legwork. I have 16 boxes preordered at an average of $201 per box, shipped. MSRP is $240, and that's where eBay prices are now, but there are other places to find boxes. Also, what do you mean by boxes are going for less than $240? Look at sold results, almost all are over $240, and closer to $250 recently.
Also, three languages does not mean triple the supply. They will undoubtedly be creating far more English boxes than the other languages. This is common sense, man. I don't even care about languages besides English, and I dare say the majority of US MTG players don't either. What's the point of a card I can't read? But yes, that will have an effect on supply, however the main effect will be the greatly increased print run of English cards.
I know there are lots of you guys with spread sheets tracking the ebay prices and estimating the number of tarmogofys a few pages back. I don't think anyone is going to be able to flip this and make money on it. It's just not worth the time or effort.
I personally hope most of these speculators crash and burn - we have some pretty aggressive, angry nerds with too much money in this thread, it would certainly look good on them. Aside from that, I think you're right, with the increased supply of both product and chase cards, prices have a good chance of dropping and actually staying down. It's all speculation though, obviously, blah, blah, blah.
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I know there are lots of you guys with spread sheets tracking the ebay prices and estimating the number of tarmogofys a few pages back. I don't think anyone is going to be able to flip this and make money on it. It's just not worth the time or effort.
I personally hope most of these speculators crash and burn - we have some pretty aggressive, angry nerds with too much money in this thread, it would certainly look good on them. Aside from that, I think you're right, with the increased supply of both product and chase cards, prices have a good chance of dropping and actually staying down. It's all speculation though, obviously, blah, blah, blah.
Hating on those who have more money and business sense than you do... Keep it classy. Then calling those of us with discretionary funds and some excel skills nerds, ha. At least I'm smart enough to know how to utilize my money to create solid returns. You don't hear me saying things like, "Oh, I hope your car catches on fire on your way to your LGS and you lose your entire collection," so I'd appreciate a little respect for us as humans rather than attacking us because we have the means to profit off of MTG. Seriously, how about you act like a mature adult, wishing ill will on others is the epitome of immaturity. Now if you want to have a civilized, educated and informed debate about the merits of me buying cases under MSRP for resale, I'll gladly engage you in such, as long as mudslinging or comments like the above are not a part of it.
Average selling price today on the 'bay is $253.28, Mr. SpeedGrapher. Well over MSRP. Yesterday was $255 and change. Actually, price hasn't been under MSRP on average since last Friday, almost a week now, and I don't see that trend changing any time soon.
I know there are lots of you guys with spread sheets tracking the ebay prices and estimating the number of tarmogofys a few pages back. I don't think anyone is going to be able to flip this and make money on it. It's just not worth the time or effort.
I personally hope most of these speculators crash and burn - we have some pretty aggressive, angry nerds with too much money in this thread, it would certainly look good on them. Aside from that, I think you're right, with the increased supply of both product and chase cards, prices have a good chance of dropping and actually staying down. It's all speculation though, obviously, blah, blah, blah.
Hating on those who have more money and business sense than you do... Keep it classy. Then calling those of us with discretionary funds and some excel skills nerds, ha. At least I'm smart enough to know how to utilize my money to create solid returns. You don't hear me saying things like, "Oh, I hope your car catches on fire on your way to your LGS and you lose your entire collection," so I'd appreciate a little respect for us as humans rather than attacking us because we have the means to profit off of MTG. Seriously, how about you act like a mature adult, wishing ill will on others is the epitome of immaturity. Now if you want to have a civilized, educated and informed debate about the merits of me buying cases under MSRP for resale, I'll gladly engage you in such, as long as mudslinging or comments like the above are not a part of it.
Average selling price today on the 'bay is $253.28, Mr. SpeedGrapher. Well over MSRP. Yesterday was $255 and change. Actually, price hasn't been under MSRP on average since last Friday, almost a week now, and I don't see that trend changing any time soon.
Not to really get into this with anyone, but I play in NYC.
People who really know how to utilize their money to create solid returns are NOT doing it with magic cards. Those that do use their money to spec on magic cards, solid returns or not...are nerds.
I don't say that with any distain, just the plain truth. No one who's ever graced MTGS has made it more difficult for anyone else to buy staples they need.
People who really know how to utilize their money to create solid returns are NOT doing it with magic cards. Those that do use their money to spec on magic cards, solid returns or not...are nerds.
I've gotta disagree. My stock portfolio has outperformed all my other investments since 2009, but am I supposed to keep dumping money into a stock market that is currently carrying some of the most bloated P/E ratio's we've ever seen with super-lax fiscal policies in place by the fed that have essentially exhausted their ability to influence the markets? No thanks, my money is going into cash, preferred shares paying solid dividends and alternative investments at the moment, at approximately a 2/1/1 ratio. So for every $2 I'm adding in cash, I'm adding $1 in preferred shares and another buck in alternative investments.
All in, cash accounts for about 10% of my portfolio as it sits, preferred shares are about 9%, and alternative investments about 14%. Of that 14%, the vast majority is held in numismatic items (my main hobby), and the rest is in some silver bullion and also MTG. It amounts to about 2% of my net worth in MTG. Maybe an extra half-point or so with all the MM15 stuff I've been playing with lately. I'm continuing my other contributions such as my 401k and ESPP (which is rolled into my IRA), but I haven't purchased any other stock in about 5-6 months as I'm waiting to see what happens over the next year or so. Just because I opt to speculate in MTG with what is essentially a negligible part of my portfolio doesn't mean that I don't know how to utilize my money, it means I did a risk assessment, did my research, came up with a number, and said "Screw it, let's see if this is viable or not!"
I may not be your typical, average MTG speculator, but there are those of us who know our stuff, have sufficient risk tolerance, and the money to mess around, and I don't think it's fair to lump them/us in with Joe Schmoe who buys 10 boxes of Born of the Gods and GateCrash because he got them for under the going rate.
I know there are lots of you guys with spread sheets tracking the ebay prices and estimating the number of tarmogofys a few pages back. I don't think anyone is going to be able to flip this and make money on it. It's just not worth the time or effort.
I personally hope most of these speculators crash and burn - we have some pretty aggressive, angry nerds with too much money in this thread, it would certainly look good on them. Aside from that, I think you're right, with the increased supply of both product and chase cards, prices have a good chance of dropping and actually staying down. It's all speculation though, obviously, blah, blah, blah.
Hating on those who have more money and business sense than you do... Keep it classy. Then calling those of us with discretionary funds and some excel skills nerds, ha. At least I'm smart enough to know how to utilize my money to create solid returns. You don't hear me saying things like, "Oh, I hope your car catches on fire on your way to your LGS and you lose your entire collection," so I'd appreciate a little respect for us as humans rather than attacking us because we have the means to profit off of MTG. Seriously, how about you act like a mature adult, wishing ill will on others is the epitome of immaturity. Now if you want to have a civilized, educated and informed debate about the merits of me buying cases under MSRP for resale, I'll gladly engage you in such, as long as mudslinging or comments like the above are not a part of it.
Average selling price today on the 'bay is $253.28, Mr. SpeedGrapher. Well over MSRP. Yesterday was $255 and change. Actually, price hasn't been under MSRP on average since last Friday, almost a week now, and I don't see that trend changing any time soon.
Hahahaha, your "more business sense" is speculating on something that looks like it may actually lower the prices of these cards by a great margin. SaffronOlive's article earlier this week gave an estimate of just how many mythics and rares the GPs will bring in alone (equal to 7 small midwest states, OK, IA, etc). A 25% gross margin after a year is a poor business decision especially when that margin may be a lot less and you haven't accounted for shipping and fees. A $300 box on ebay with free shipping is going to cost you $48 is shipping alone which makes your gross margin about 20%. The company I work for has seen that increase in stock prices this year alone. That doesn't include dividends or the much easier liquidity of stocks.
It seems like an awful lot of work that is going to amount to a profit of ~$650 at a year.
I was looking at the closest LGSs in my area that run SCG/TCG events and none of them are selling online but all of them are selling for MSRP either by forcing you to come in or waiting at the door. The one place has 100 person midnight prereleases and 3-4 prereleases on Sat and Sun and is guaranteeing MM15 drafts for all who attend on release day. If they get just 100 people, there will be 9 cases opened for those events alone not counting prize packs.
My comic store still cannot get any response from his distributor on how many he may get.
I know there are lots of you guys with spread sheets tracking the ebay prices and estimating the number of tarmogofys a few pages back. I don't think anyone is going to be able to flip this and make money on it. It's just not worth the time or effort.
I personally hope most of these speculators crash and burn - we have some pretty aggressive, angry nerds with too much money in this thread, it would certainly look good on them. Aside from that, I think you're right, with the increased supply of both product and chase cards, prices have a good chance of dropping and actually staying down. It's all speculation though, obviously, blah, blah, blah.
Hating on those who have more money and business sense than you do... Keep it classy. Then calling those of us with discretionary funds and some excel skills nerds, ha. At least I'm smart enough to know how to utilize my money to create solid returns. You don't hear me saying things like, "Oh, I hope your car catches on fire on your way to your LGS and you lose your entire collection," so I'd appreciate a little respect for us as humans rather than attacking us because we have the means to profit off of MTG. Seriously, how about you act like a mature adult, wishing ill will on others is the epitome of immaturity. Now if you want to have a civilized, educated and informed debate about the merits of me buying cases under MSRP for resale, I'll gladly engage you in such, as long as mudslinging or comments like the above are not a part of it.
Average selling price today on the 'bay is $253.28, Mr. SpeedGrapher. Well over MSRP. Yesterday was $255 and change. Actually, price hasn't been under MSRP on average since last Friday, almost a week now, and I don't see that trend changing any time soon.
Hahahaha, your "more business sense" is speculating on something that looks like it may actually lower the prices of these cards by a great margin. SaffronOlive's article earlier this week gave an estimate of just how many mythics and rares the GPs will bring in alone (equal to 7 small midwest states, OK, IA, etc). A 25% gross margin after a year is a poor business decision especially when that margin may be a lot less and you haven't accounted for shipping and fees. A $300 box on ebay with free shipping is going to cost you $48 is shipping alone which makes your gross margin about 20%. The company I work for has seen that increase in stock prices this year alone. That doesn't include dividends or the much easier liquidity of stocks.
It seems like an awful lot of work that is going to amount to a profit of ~$650 at a year.
I was looking at the closest LGSs in my area that run SCG/TCG events and none of them are selling online but all of them are selling for MSRP either by forcing you to come in or waiting at the door. The one place has 100 person midnight prereleases and 3-4 prereleases on Sat and Sun and is guaranteeing MM15 drafts for all who attend on release day. If they get just 100 people, there will be 9 cases opened for those events alone not counting prize packs.
My comic store still cannot get any response from his distributor on how many he may get.
I don't sell cards on eBay due to fees and shipping alone. I've already sold two boxes via preorder on craigslist locally for $250 each, with $25 nonrefundable deposits. eBay is for buying, not selling. The table is heavily tilted towards buyers and it makes no sense to sell things on eBay if you have a healthy local market for said items. I can get right around eBay prices for most stuff I sell via craigslist.
I read SaffronOlive's article, and to be realistic, it means nothing unless we know how large the original print runs are. You can't throw numbers out there and say "omg market is going to crash" when you have no context. 10,000 goyfs sounds like a lot, but if there's already 150,000 goyfs out there between Future Sight and MM13, it's not really that many, is it? I mean, hell 20% might have a decent impact, but to bring prices down to "crash" levels on the best material, you'd have to dilute populations by 50% or more.
Go ahead, keep explaining how stupid I am for buying boxes at $200 and reselling them at $250. I'll keep making money. Sell four cases, one is free!
A, you are indeed the atypical mtg investor.
B, I meant like real real returns--which without getting into it means both profitable and non-negligible dollar amounts. This is vague, as my sense of wealth is FUBAR (from living in NYC, not because I'm a high schooler and don't know anything [I am not]).
I also don't think what you're doing is worth talking about in a forum, most of your compatriots here are angry at a boogieman who doesn't exist instead of one John Smith.
I don't sell cards on eBay due to fees and shipping alone. I've already sold two boxes via preorder on craigslist locally for $250 each, with $25 nonrefundable deposits. eBay is for buying, not selling. The table is heavily tilted towards buyers and it makes no sense to sell things on eBay if you have a healthy local market for said items. I can get right around eBay prices for most stuff I sell via craigslist.
I read SaffronOlive's article, and to be realistic, it means nothing unless we know how large the original print runs are. You can't throw numbers out there and say "omg market is going to crash" when you have no context. 10,000 goyfs sounds like a lot, but if there's already 150,000 goyfs out there between Future Sight and MM13, it's not really that many, is it? I mean, hell 20% might have a decent impact, but to bring prices down to "crash" levels on the best material, you'd have to dilute populations by 50% or more.
Go ahead, keep explaining how stupid I am for buying boxes at $200 and reselling them at $250. I'll keep making money. Sell four cases, one is free!
Wait, so you have already pre-sold something that you preordered, that has not even come in yet? Plus the $25 nonrefundable.
This is certainly not stupid, this feels more than a little unethical to be honest.
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Just locked down 4 more boxes at $195 each, really debating doubling up to 8 boxes from that supplier at those prices.
DCA of $201 right now, could get it to $199.8 if I add four more... it's just a matter of if I want to continue to unbalance my investments by scooping these deals.
Where are you seeing them available for $200 each? I don't see that anywhere, but wish I bought more than I did (which was quite a few actually).
I think if they include Gemstone Mine and Bitterblossom and Wurmcoil that this set will be a beautiful amazement of cards and worth a TON in a year or two.
Small store somebody told me about. I'm giving the guy a finders fee for hooking me up. They have three more cases available for preorder too. I'm trying my hardest to resist loading up and buying out their inventory then flipping it, since I don't think that would be fair to the people who visit that store and/or play there.
Agreed, but why would the store do that? They have to know they can sell for at least msrp. Seems ridiculous to me, but I'm in! Let me know which store!
I just want to buy one of those boxes. My local store still doesn't know if he is getting any since he doesn't get stuff from WotC and has to buy 100% through distributors. I want to buy from him, but as we get closer and closer to launch I am afraid he isn't going to get any and I won't be able to get a box for Pack Wars for my wife and I.
they were not "missing" mox opal in mm1 as that set didnt include scars block or zendikar
Our store did a 2 box limit though and even with that we have essentially sold it out at this point. I went through an online store to get another 2 boxes at MSRP (upside there is no tax concerns).
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Edit: and you flippers are also a part of the reason the format is becoming ruined and why wizards just added more product to everyone to make flipping less reliable and to discourage it.
You don't make jack. People who make a lot of money never mention it unless asked. You're probably some 17 year old high school student pecking away at his keyboard.
If you were wealthy, I'm sure you'd know that a 50% return on invested capital in one year is beyond phenomenal. I mean, if I spend $5k on MM 2015 booster boxes at a cost basis of $200 ea, and I can sell them for $300 next summer, I'm going to turn my $5k into $7.5k. That kicks the crap out of, say the S&P 500, returning 10% (which would be great!) and your $5k worth $5.5k. I aim for 7% returns (although it's been more like 20% these past few years in a bull market) from my stock investments, I feel that is a solid rate of return over the long run, and most would agree with me that ~4% over inflation is a good rate of return in a zero-interest rate environment.
Not to mention, where are you getting $600 to make $150? If prices move to $300, that's spending $600 to make $300. Even your example is a 25% return on capital in one year, that's awesome too! Low rate of return, ha. Thanks for the laugh. What do you consult in, how to lose money? At $200 a box purchase price I can sell them on eBay right now for a 15%+ profit after shipping costs and fees, to do nothing more than print a shipping label, cover up the old one with the new one, and set up a pickup on UPS.com. 15% return for 15 minutes worth of work isn't worth the effort and you're trying to come off like you've got money. Get outta here dude.
If you want to belittle anything about buying/flipping MM15 boxes, you should be criticizing the flippers risk assessment skills and/or tolerance, not the potential returns.
EDIT:
I have a song for you.
I think prices are going to be unstable until the launch and even then probably until we see what sort of a second wave to expect from wizards. It is concerning to be this far out from release with so little info and have the expensive guys already at $300 a box though.
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[Modern] Allies
I gotta say that I could see prices dipping into the $200/per region, but this isn't being printed like Chronicles or anything, if prices dip below MSRP, it will not be for long. I'm thinking we see around $200-$225 a box shortly after release (5/25-5/30) then prices moving up to around $250 (Late first week of June) and a creep towards $300ish (After Christmas). Just my two cents.
1) what sort of supply wizards gives
2) the average value per card
I think it has a lot of potential to do a lot of things and we honestly wont know until we see the full contents as well as how distribution and supply end up.
Signature by Inkfox Aesthetics by Xen
[Modern] Allies
I would not have a problem with that, kinda feels how alot of the MTG supplementary products work. AKA duel decks and planerchase products.
That 9 months number is ridiculous, ask around at some other stores and I think you'll find his numbers are off. Then he adds the "rule" about selling below MSRP? C'mon man are you that gullible? Unless WotC has totally lost their marbles and isn't afraid of destroying the Modern game, there is no way they're printing this set for 9 months. I'm not calling the new guy a liar or anything, but he's new... he probably doesn't know anything compared to the guys I've been talking to, who have been at this for 10-15 years.
The $200 price point is what I have been able to find boxes at with luck and legwork. I have 16 boxes preordered at an average of $201 per box, shipped. MSRP is $240, and that's where eBay prices are now, but there are other places to find boxes. Also, what do you mean by boxes are going for less than $240? Look at sold results, almost all are over $240, and closer to $250 recently.
Also, three languages does not mean triple the supply. They will undoubtedly be creating far more English boxes than the other languages. This is common sense, man. I don't even care about languages besides English, and I dare say the majority of US MTG players don't either. What's the point of a card I can't read? But yes, that will have an effect on supply, however the main effect will be the greatly increased print run of English cards.
I personally hope most of these speculators crash and burn - we have some pretty aggressive, angry nerds with too much money in this thread, it would certainly look good on them. Aside from that, I think you're right, with the increased supply of both product and chase cards, prices have a good chance of dropping and actually staying down. It's all speculation though, obviously, blah, blah, blah.
Hating on those who have more money and business sense than you do... Keep it classy. Then calling those of us with discretionary funds and some excel skills nerds, ha. At least I'm smart enough to know how to utilize my money to create solid returns. You don't hear me saying things like, "Oh, I hope your car catches on fire on your way to your LGS and you lose your entire collection," so I'd appreciate a little respect for us as humans rather than attacking us because we have the means to profit off of MTG. Seriously, how about you act like a mature adult, wishing ill will on others is the epitome of immaturity. Now if you want to have a civilized, educated and informed debate about the merits of me buying cases under MSRP for resale, I'll gladly engage you in such, as long as mudslinging or comments like the above are not a part of it.
Average selling price today on the 'bay is $253.28, Mr. SpeedGrapher. Well over MSRP. Yesterday was $255 and change. Actually, price hasn't been under MSRP on average since last Friday, almost a week now, and I don't see that trend changing any time soon.
Not to really get into this with anyone, but I play in NYC.
People who really know how to utilize their money to create solid returns are NOT doing it with magic cards. Those that do use their money to spec on magic cards, solid returns or not...are nerds.
I don't say that with any distain, just the plain truth. No one who's ever graced MTGS has made it more difficult for anyone else to buy staples they need.
I've gotta disagree. My stock portfolio has outperformed all my other investments since 2009, but am I supposed to keep dumping money into a stock market that is currently carrying some of the most bloated P/E ratio's we've ever seen with super-lax fiscal policies in place by the fed that have essentially exhausted their ability to influence the markets? No thanks, my money is going into cash, preferred shares paying solid dividends and alternative investments at the moment, at approximately a 2/1/1 ratio. So for every $2 I'm adding in cash, I'm adding $1 in preferred shares and another buck in alternative investments.
All in, cash accounts for about 10% of my portfolio as it sits, preferred shares are about 9%, and alternative investments about 14%. Of that 14%, the vast majority is held in numismatic items (my main hobby), and the rest is in some silver bullion and also MTG. It amounts to about 2% of my net worth in MTG. Maybe an extra half-point or so with all the MM15 stuff I've been playing with lately. I'm continuing my other contributions such as my 401k and ESPP (which is rolled into my IRA), but I haven't purchased any other stock in about 5-6 months as I'm waiting to see what happens over the next year or so. Just because I opt to speculate in MTG with what is essentially a negligible part of my portfolio doesn't mean that I don't know how to utilize my money, it means I did a risk assessment, did my research, came up with a number, and said "Screw it, let's see if this is viable or not!"
I may not be your typical, average MTG speculator, but there are those of us who know our stuff, have sufficient risk tolerance, and the money to mess around, and I don't think it's fair to lump them/us in with Joe Schmoe who buys 10 boxes of Born of the Gods and GateCrash because he got them for under the going rate.
Hahahaha, your "more business sense" is speculating on something that looks like it may actually lower the prices of these cards by a great margin. SaffronOlive's article earlier this week gave an estimate of just how many mythics and rares the GPs will bring in alone (equal to 7 small midwest states, OK, IA, etc). A 25% gross margin after a year is a poor business decision especially when that margin may be a lot less and you haven't accounted for shipping and fees. A $300 box on ebay with free shipping is going to cost you $48 is shipping alone which makes your gross margin about 20%. The company I work for has seen that increase in stock prices this year alone. That doesn't include dividends or the much easier liquidity of stocks.
It seems like an awful lot of work that is going to amount to a profit of ~$650 at a year.
I was looking at the closest LGSs in my area that run SCG/TCG events and none of them are selling online but all of them are selling for MSRP either by forcing you to come in or waiting at the door. The one place has 100 person midnight prereleases and 3-4 prereleases on Sat and Sun and is guaranteeing MM15 drafts for all who attend on release day. If they get just 100 people, there will be 9 cases opened for those events alone not counting prize packs.
My comic store still cannot get any response from his distributor on how many he may get.
I don't sell cards on eBay due to fees and shipping alone. I've already sold two boxes via preorder on craigslist locally for $250 each, with $25 nonrefundable deposits. eBay is for buying, not selling. The table is heavily tilted towards buyers and it makes no sense to sell things on eBay if you have a healthy local market for said items. I can get right around eBay prices for most stuff I sell via craigslist.
I read SaffronOlive's article, and to be realistic, it means nothing unless we know how large the original print runs are. You can't throw numbers out there and say "omg market is going to crash" when you have no context. 10,000 goyfs sounds like a lot, but if there's already 150,000 goyfs out there between Future Sight and MM13, it's not really that many, is it? I mean, hell 20% might have a decent impact, but to bring prices down to "crash" levels on the best material, you'd have to dilute populations by 50% or more.
Go ahead, keep explaining how stupid I am for buying boxes at $200 and reselling them at $250. I'll keep making money. Sell four cases, one is free!
B, I meant like real real returns--which without getting into it means both profitable and non-negligible dollar amounts. This is vague, as my sense of wealth is FUBAR (from living in NYC, not because I'm a high schooler and don't know anything [I am not]).
I also don't think what you're doing is worth talking about in a forum, most of your compatriots here are angry at a boogieman who doesn't exist instead of one John Smith.
This is certainly not stupid, this feels more than a little unethical to be honest.