Guys do u think that Karn will drop to lower than 40$( he is at 50 now)? I can buy 2 for 40$ and now i dont know if i should to... Plus i like the new frame and the mtg sticker on the mm2 edition !!
The original Modern Masters didn't really lower the prices of any of the mythics in it with it being a limited print run and expensive packs. I wouldn't really expect the mythics here to drop in price much either. That's why people were so salty that Goyf was mythic in here, too.
Entirely false. It dropped the price on all of the mythics except for 'goyf, Bob, and Clique. And even those dropped for a short amount of time before skyrocketing back up. However, it is unclear what the print run is going to be right now, so it is hard to say what MM2 will do to prices.
True, but then you must include the caveat that the Mythic Cycle included stuff like the Kamigawa Dragon cycle, which was not in any real demand outside of EDH/ Casual. Most main deck staples in modern (and legacy) actually went up in price when printed at rare/ mythic.
Also not true. Up until very recently, only 5 cards from MM went up in price, and 4 of those cards dropped in price during the first week or so. Aether Vial is the only card that went up in price consistently. Cryptic Command, Pact of Negation, and Summoner's Pact dropped almost $10 before jumping in price months (or year+) later. Blood Moon had a similar experience to Command, but less of an initial drop because it wasn't too expensive pre-MM.
SoFaI dropped a lot for over a year before jumping more recently. SoLaS dropped a fair amount and never recovered. Elspeth dropped a lot even before the Event Deck. Shackles dropped a lot, and hasn't recovered. Kiki-Jiki dropped a fair amount, and has recovered some, but still less than pre-MM values. Progenitus dropped a lot and never recovered. Sarkhan Vol dropped a lot and never recovered. Chalice, Acadamy Ruins, Doubling Season all saw huge drops, and just recently seen any recovery, with Chalice jumping very high. Ravager saw a $10 drop, and is still lower than it was pre-MM. Engineered Explosives, Kataki, Glen Elendra Archmage, Gift Ungiven, Glimmervoid, Kira, Great Glass-Spinner, Maelstrom Pulse, Lotus Bloom, and Ethersworn Canonist all saw fair to large price drops and never recovered.
People can keep spouting off all the lies they want about how MM didn't impact prices, but facts don't lie. Prices were impacted greatly for a vast majority of the cards, and even 'goyf saw a short price decrease before jumping astronomically. MM worked, and the facts prove this. It increased supply and dropped prices overall. It also increased the number of people who were interested in the format making MM2 a possibility. For some reason, people like to look less than 10% of the set and make broad assumptions that the facts just outright disprove.
The original Modern Masters didn't really lower the prices of any of the mythics in it with it being a limited print run and expensive packs. I wouldn't really expect the mythics here to drop in price much either. That's why people were so salty that Goyf was mythic in here, too.
Entirely false. It dropped the price on all of the mythics except for 'goyf, Bob, and Clique. And even those dropped for a short amount of time before skyrocketing back up. However, it is unclear what the print run is going to be right now, so it is hard to say what MM2 will do to prices.
Realise that unlike last time, MM will see three GP Las Vegas(es?) this time around. That alone increases the print run.
It could also increase demand. And while 2 extra GPs will increase the print run, it's not that significant. Even if they are all 3,000 players, that's not that much in comparison to a normal print run for Standard sets. Also, if the set is bad, overall demand will decrease, and with an MSRP of 10.99, stores won't be able to move them without losing money, which they may not want to do. This will mean the number of packs opened is a lot less. My point was that we just don't know enough yet to make any reasonable guess about what MM2 will do to prices. We need more info.
Capacity for MMA2 GPs was set to 5000 players in europe and asia and 10000 players for usa. MMA vegas GP had capacity around 4500 players, all slots gone after 2 days (or something like that) of presale. in other words - WOTC count with more than 4-times bigger consuming of boosters (english boosters for 15000 players, japanese/chinese boosters for 5000 players) for the tournaments only. My guess is that the "4-times" multiplier could be close to what we get for MMA2 compared to MMA print run, epsecially when we get this set in 3 languages instead of 1. I also think, that we will never get exact info from WOTC regarding amount of MMA/MMA2 product printed. I am just hoping, that the initial print run will be much higher for MMA2 compared to MMA, where LGS in my country received information from distributor, that "their orders of MMA will be reduced by 65%"
That's so beyond not true at all that I had to find the old blog of the event organizer to get the exact numbers
Presale for GP Vegas 2013 started April 9, 2013
then on June 3, 2013 (2 months later) they had 1207 people pre-registered
June 12th 2173 people (and he says that the largest gp ever at that point was 2693 players)
June 19th 3205 people
June 20th is when the event organizer instituted the cap of 4500 people (which they hadn't hit at that time)
If i remember correctly, there were a handful of people who showed up on Friday morning who were able to register for the event and able to play Saturday (like less than 100)
MM2 not only will have a larger print run than the original MM set, but it will also not see the dramatic increase in playerbase that the original MM caused. That's part of the reason why many of the "deck specific" modern cards saw price drops long term, while the super-staples (Goyf, Bob, Clique) saw longer term gains - the number of people wanting those cards significantly out-gained the number of reprints that MM made available.
Also, using my local area as my data set, there is also the fact that there seems to be a surge in the playerbase around the Zendikar/Scars era of standard. I have watched my area go from having a few locations with FNM events to regularly filling 4 or 5 FNM events within 20 miles of each other - including one that pulls in over 120 players alone weekly. Enough that we have recently been granted our first local GPT and PTQ events.
What I'm getting at here is, if MM2 has a strong showing of Zendikar through Mirrodin Besieged cards, then we are talking about increasing the availability of cards more people already have in the first place, as opposed to the pre-Alara cards that simply aren't as readily available. Therefore, even if there is a moderate increase in demand for some cards, the availability of original prints is already there to supplement the new release.
Private Mod Note
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Modern! Dredge RBG
Modern! Burn (RW, RWG, RBG , RB ... what can I say, I like variety in my BBQ )
Legacy! Burn RW
EDH! Uril the Miststalker RWG
MTGS Wikia Article about "New World Order"
Every time I read a comment about "Well if this card had card draw/trample/haste/indestructible/hexproof/life gain...", I think "You're missing the point." They're armchair developer comments that fail to take into account the card's role in the greater Limited and Standard environment. No, it may not be as good as whatever card you're comparing it to. There's a reason for that. Not every burn spell is Lightning Bolt, nor does it need to be or should be.
PSA to everyone who keeps forgetting about the Reserved List:
You're on a website dedicated to talking about MtG. You're only a few keystrokes away from finding out what cards are on the Reserved List. You're also only a few keystrokes away from finding out why some cards on the Reserved List got foil printings in FtV, as Judge promos, or whatnot, as well as why that won't happen again. Stop doing this.
My only question is whether the print run for Modern Masters 2 going to be as low as the first. Even if they doubled the print run, I can't see Tarmogoyf dropping to pre-MM prices (which was already too rich for my blood). The bottom has to be $150 or so.
People shouldn't complain if Goyfs drop to $50 or so though. Imho $50 seems like a nice maximum of what card prices for top modern cards should be. So I hope for a significantly large print run this time.
If you seriously think StarCity would let Goyf drop that low for anything short of being reprinted in a standard set at rare, you don't understand how the MTG secondary market works.
My only question is whether the print run for Modern Masters 2 going to be as low as the first. Even if they doubled the print run, I can't see Tarmogoyf dropping to pre-MM prices (which was already too rich for my blood). The bottom has to be $150 or so.
People shouldn't complain if Goyfs drop to $50 or so though. Imho $50 seems like a nice maximum of what card prices for top modern cards should be. So I hope for a significantly large print run this time.
If you seriously think StarCity would let Goyf drop that low for anything short of being reprinted in a standard set at rare, you don't understand how the MTG secondary market works.
If you think StarCity has that kind of influence, you have no idea how the world works.
My only question is whether the print run for Modern Masters 2 going to be as low as the first. Even if they doubled the print run, I can't see Tarmogoyf dropping to pre-MM prices (which was already too rich for my blood). The bottom has to be $150 or so.
People shouldn't complain if Goyfs drop to $50 or so though. Imho $50 seems like a nice maximum of what card prices for top modern cards should be. So I hope for a significantly large print run this time.
If you seriously think StarCity would let Goyf drop that low for anything short of being reprinted in a standard set at rare, you don't understand how the MTG secondary market works.
If you seriously think "how the secondary market works" is "it locks step with shady backroom decisions of StarCityGames" then you're insane. If the equilibrium price is $50 then StarCity isn't going to be able to maintain a price significantly higher than that because regardless of what your conspiracy theories may tell you, they have competitors who would be more than happy to undercut them if they try to sell a $50 card for $150.
If you seriously think "how the secondary market works" is "it locks step with shady backroom decisions of StarCityGames" then you're insane. If the equilibrium price is $50 then StarCity isn't going to be able to maintain a price significantly higher than that because regardless of what your conspiracy theories may tell you, they have competitors who would be more than happy to undercut them if they try to sell a $50 card for $150.
There's no one willing to undercut them that much though. If SCG is selling it for $200 (and people buy it for that much still) why would I ever want to sell mine for much less than that? I'd seriously be screwing myself out of money, especially because I probably acquired it for a pretty hefty sum.
If you seriously think "how the secondary market works" is "it locks step with shady backroom decisions of StarCityGames" then you're insane. If the equilibrium price is $50 then StarCity isn't going to be able to maintain a price significantly higher than that because regardless of what your conspiracy theories may tell you, they have competitors who would be more than happy to undercut them if they try to sell a $50 card for $150.
There's no one willing to undercut them that much though. If SCG is selling it for $200 (and people buy it for that much still) why would I ever want to sell mine for much less than that? I'd seriously be screwing myself out of money, especially because I probably acquired it for a pretty hefty sum.
Yes, it's much better to just list a card for $100 more than it is worth and have it sit on your shelf just because someone else did it. Your certainly not screwing yourself out of money that way.
But Goyfs are never going to sit around on your shelf because of how important of a card it is. They are ALWAYS in demand. If someone lists theirs for significantly below the price of one of the big retailers, the retailers will just buy every single one of them and relist them because they control the bulk of the secondary market supply and have the money to do so.
But Goyfs are never going to sit around on your shelf because of how important of a card it is. They are ALWAYS in demand. If someone lists theirs for significantly below the price of one of the big retailers, the retailers will just buy every single one of them and relist them because they control the bulk of the secondary market supply and have the money to do so.
well i get all my cards significantly cheaper than starcitygames prices. how come?
i could buy narset for 25€ currently... and not ridiculous 50$ lol...
But Goyfs are never going to sit around on your shelf because of how important of a card it is. They are ALWAYS in demand. If someone lists theirs for significantly below the price of one of the big retailers, the retailers will just buy every single one of them and relist them because they control the bulk of the secondary market supply and have the money to do so.
It is not possible to buy every single version of a $50 card, especially in a world where we have just increased supply greatly. No company has that kind of money. The MARKET sets the price, not a single company. Take off the tinfoil hats people.
If you seriously think "how the secondary market works" is "it locks step with shady backroom decisions of StarCityGames" then you're insane. If the equilibrium price is $50 then StarCity isn't going to be able to maintain a price significantly higher than that because regardless of what your conspiracy theories may tell you, they have competitors who would be more than happy to undercut them if they try to sell a $50 card for $150.
There's no one willing to undercut them that much though. If SCG is selling it for $200 (and people buy it for that much still) why would I ever want to sell mine for much less than that? I'd seriously be screwing myself out of money, especially because I probably acquired it for a pretty hefty sum.
Some very selective prices (very much different from "all prices" or even mean/median prices) are "sticky downwards" due to nominal rigidity. http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nominal_rigidity
What this means in practice is that no one wants to be the village idiot who is the first person selling their goyfs at 50% off and thinking all the other sellers will follow suit.
I love how you make it very clear that this doesn't apply to all prices but then go ahead and assume it applies to the price of Tarmogoyf (and what larger category? All chase rares? All Magic cards? Or just this one specific card we happen to be discussing?) with no justification. True, nobody is going to sell for $50 when they could sell for $150, but they might sell for $140. Gradually the price gets shifted down and if retailers cling to the price that used to be, even large retailers like StarCityGames, they're left out in the cold. StarCity's prices correlate with the broader market because they're not dumb enough to try to maintain ridiculous prices that are unsustainable, not because they are capable of doing it with economy-warping efficiency.
Assuming that the aggregate demand for Tarmogoyf remains constant while the aggregate supply of Tarmogoyf increases, yes.
However, if the MM2 attracts new players into Modern/Legacy willing to invest in Tarmogoyfs more than Tarmogoyf gets re-printed, then the opposite will hold true: the price of Tarmogoyf will actually increase post MM2, not decrease.
I'm not making any claims about what will happen to the supply and demand of Tarmogoyf (and by the way, this is not macroeconomics, we're talking about one card. Nothing is aggregate), I'm discussing what would happen if they were to reach such a point in concert that the equilibrium price would be $50, as proposed by the posts I quoted. You suggested a mechanism whereby the market would not reach this equilibrium and I argued that it does not apply to the price of any Magic card, not even Tarmogoyf. You're now shifting the goalposts by changing the assumptions I was using. By all means question those assumptions but don't pretend it's a rebuttal to me!
Interesting to see that modern masters boxes have dropped to about $350! I wonder if this will be a trend or if now is the time to buy before they shoot back to $400+?
it is simple to bring down the price of tarmogyf lol all you need to do is get you, your buddy, and your buddy's buddys, and their buddys to all sell all the tarmogoyfs they have on eBay for 50 $. It may sound stupid but if you look at trends that is how cards go up and down. Small/ large groups of people selling there cards for ridiculously low or high prices. don't believe me look at force of will legacy is not changing i any way but force keeps going up.
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[center][color=Blue]
U/R Delver
Edric Spy and die
Azami the lady of the draw
Naya Zoo
Past decks
Orloro
sharuum the hegemond
Mono black control
splinter twin
People here saying that there won't be a gradually decreasing price and/or equilibrium have clearly never sold anything at all. While big stores might be charging $200 for a card, they will also be doing that on eBay, but the way small sellers make money is by undercutting them. Why would someone risk the chance of getting a SP card that you said was NM for the price that they could get from a big seller? Doesn't make any sense. For the little guy to make money, they have to undercut the bigger sellers. There are also other competing sellers who aren't big business that will undercut you if they want to sell the card for cheaper. So not only do you have someone undercutting the big stores but you have other people undercutting them. That's how you sell stuff on eBay, and tcgplayer. Some cards might start out high but once they are in great supply, you will see a lot of price decreases over time until they reach a low enough point that people are buying them as listings come out. This is what equilibrium is.
Right, but what about modern masters booster boxes? Will they go back up, or continue their decline? How is MM2 effecting MM1 so heavily? Because of the Goyf reprint?
One thing I didn't realize until I read through the DTK crunch thread: Karn is numbered #4 in the set, which means that there are three colorless non-artifact non-land cards ahead of him. So three two of these cards are also in MM2, and at least one is going to be a high-value reprint which is nice:
Hm, all three of those would make good reprints. All is Dust seems least likely to me since we've got multiple colorless mythics already, but then again they might be willing to do that to build hype for Battle for Zendikar.
I do really enjoy that they're including so many Eldrazi right as the story is about to return to them.
As part of the MM2 Channel Fireball Release event you get a foil Griselbrand (along with a mat, sleeves, ect). Would that seem to indicate that he is going to be in the set? Do they ever give promo/foil cards of cards that are not in that set at an event?
As part of the MM2 Channel Fireball Release event you get a foil Griselbrand (along with a mat, sleeves, ect). Would that seem to indicate that he is going to be in the set? Do they ever give promo/foil cards of cards that are not in that set at an event?
Griselbrand is the GP foil that will be given out for all GPs around that time I am guessing.
Sorin, lord of Innistrad, was $50.
Jace, the mind sculptor, was $60.
There are also couple of examples had a price tag between $40 and $50 durning Standard: Liliana of the veil, Sword of War and Peace, Bonfire of the damned, Jace AOT.
Did you really just try to make a value comparison using Jace, the Mind Sculptor? Cmon buddy.
While I don't entirely dispute your point, the absolute peak for cards in standard is $50. Recent mythics getting to that were sphinx's rev, Jace AoT and voice of resurgence. That said, Goyf is twice the price I would think reasonable given that lili of the veil is at least on par in power and ubiquity.
Did sphinx's rev really trade at $50 for any sustained period of time?
Anyhow, it is somewhat pointless to compare Standard and Modern prices. Any standard card is subject to the downwards price pressure of being in print. If prices rice too high, more packs will get opened and bring the prices down.
So hopefully that means m11 cards, too. Leyline of Sanctity reprint please!
Also not true. Up until very recently, only 5 cards from MM went up in price, and 4 of those cards dropped in price during the first week or so. Aether Vial is the only card that went up in price consistently. Cryptic Command, Pact of Negation, and Summoner's Pact dropped almost $10 before jumping in price months (or year+) later. Blood Moon had a similar experience to Command, but less of an initial drop because it wasn't too expensive pre-MM.
SoFaI dropped a lot for over a year before jumping more recently. SoLaS dropped a fair amount and never recovered. Elspeth dropped a lot even before the Event Deck. Shackles dropped a lot, and hasn't recovered. Kiki-Jiki dropped a fair amount, and has recovered some, but still less than pre-MM values. Progenitus dropped a lot and never recovered. Sarkhan Vol dropped a lot and never recovered. Chalice, Acadamy Ruins, Doubling Season all saw huge drops, and just recently seen any recovery, with Chalice jumping very high. Ravager saw a $10 drop, and is still lower than it was pre-MM. Engineered Explosives, Kataki, Glen Elendra Archmage, Gift Ungiven, Glimmervoid, Kira, Great Glass-Spinner, Maelstrom Pulse, Lotus Bloom, and Ethersworn Canonist all saw fair to large price drops and never recovered.
People can keep spouting off all the lies they want about how MM didn't impact prices, but facts don't lie. Prices were impacted greatly for a vast majority of the cards, and even 'goyf saw a short price decrease before jumping astronomically. MM worked, and the facts prove this. It increased supply and dropped prices overall. It also increased the number of people who were interested in the format making MM2 a possibility. For some reason, people like to look less than 10% of the set and make broad assumptions that the facts just outright disprove.
Check out http://www.mtgbrodeals.com/author/john-murphy/ for my EDH articles!
That's so beyond not true at all that I had to find the old blog of the event organizer to get the exact numbers
Presale for GP Vegas 2013 started April 9, 2013
then on June 3, 2013 (2 months later) they had 1207 people pre-registered
June 12th 2173 people (and he says that the largest gp ever at that point was 2693 players)
June 19th 3205 people
June 20th is when the event organizer instituted the cap of 4500 people (which they hadn't hit at that time)
If i remember correctly, there were a handful of people who showed up on Friday morning who were able to register for the event and able to play Saturday (like less than 100)
MM2 not only will have a larger print run than the original MM set, but it will also not see the dramatic increase in playerbase that the original MM caused. That's part of the reason why many of the "deck specific" modern cards saw price drops long term, while the super-staples (Goyf, Bob, Clique) saw longer term gains - the number of people wanting those cards significantly out-gained the number of reprints that MM made available.
Also, using my local area as my data set, there is also the fact that there seems to be a surge in the playerbase around the Zendikar/Scars era of standard. I have watched my area go from having a few locations with FNM events to regularly filling 4 or 5 FNM events within 20 miles of each other - including one that pulls in over 120 players alone weekly. Enough that we have recently been granted our first local GPT and PTQ events.
What I'm getting at here is, if MM2 has a strong showing of Zendikar through Mirrodin Besieged cards, then we are talking about increasing the availability of cards more people already have in the first place, as opposed to the pre-Alara cards that simply aren't as readily available. Therefore, even if there is a moderate increase in demand for some cards, the availability of original prints is already there to supplement the new release.
Modern! Burn (RW, RWG, RBG , RB ... what can I say, I like variety in my BBQ )
Legacy! Burn RW
EDH! Uril the Miststalker RWG
Every time I read a comment about "Well if this card had card draw/trample/haste/indestructible/hexproof/life gain...", I think "You're missing the point." They're armchair developer comments that fail to take into account the card's role in the greater Limited and Standard environment. No, it may not be as good as whatever card you're comparing it to. There's a reason for that. Not every burn spell is Lightning Bolt, nor does it need to be or should be.
If you seriously think StarCity would let Goyf drop that low for anything short of being reprinted in a standard set at rare, you don't understand how the MTG secondary market works.
If you think StarCity has that kind of influence, you have no idea how the world works.
Check out http://www.mtgbrodeals.com/author/john-murphy/ for my EDH articles!
If you seriously think "how the secondary market works" is "it locks step with shady backroom decisions of StarCityGames" then you're insane. If the equilibrium price is $50 then StarCity isn't going to be able to maintain a price significantly higher than that because regardless of what your conspiracy theories may tell you, they have competitors who would be more than happy to undercut them if they try to sell a $50 card for $150.
There's no one willing to undercut them that much though. If SCG is selling it for $200 (and people buy it for that much still) why would I ever want to sell mine for much less than that? I'd seriously be screwing myself out of money, especially because I probably acquired it for a pretty hefty sum.
Yes, it's much better to just list a card for $100 more than it is worth and have it sit on your shelf just because someone else did it. Your certainly not screwing yourself out of money that way.
Check out http://www.mtgbrodeals.com/author/john-murphy/ for my EDH articles!
well i get all my cards significantly cheaper than starcitygames prices. how come?
i could buy narset for 25€ currently... and not ridiculous 50$ lol...
It is not possible to buy every single version of a $50 card, especially in a world where we have just increased supply greatly. No company has that kind of money. The MARKET sets the price, not a single company. Take off the tinfoil hats people.
Check out http://www.mtgbrodeals.com/author/john-murphy/ for my EDH articles!
I love how you make it very clear that this doesn't apply to all prices but then go ahead and assume it applies to the price of Tarmogoyf (and what larger category? All chase rares? All Magic cards? Or just this one specific card we happen to be discussing?) with no justification. True, nobody is going to sell for $50 when they could sell for $150, but they might sell for $140. Gradually the price gets shifted down and if retailers cling to the price that used to be, even large retailers like StarCityGames, they're left out in the cold. StarCity's prices correlate with the broader market because they're not dumb enough to try to maintain ridiculous prices that are unsustainable, not because they are capable of doing it with economy-warping efficiency.
I'm not making any claims about what will happen to the supply and demand of Tarmogoyf (and by the way, this is not macroeconomics, we're talking about one card. Nothing is aggregate), I'm discussing what would happen if they were to reach such a point in concert that the equilibrium price would be $50, as proposed by the posts I quoted. You suggested a mechanism whereby the market would not reach this equilibrium and I argued that it does not apply to the price of any Magic card, not even Tarmogoyf. You're now shifting the goalposts by changing the assumptions I was using. By all means question those assumptions but don't pretend it's a rebuttal to me!
[center][color=Blue]
Edric Spy and die
Azami the lady of the draw
Naya Zoo
Past decks
Orloro
sharuum the hegemond
Mono black control
splinter twin
Hm, all three of those would make good reprints. All is Dust seems least likely to me since we've got multiple colorless mythics already, but then again they might be willing to do that to build hype for Battle for Zendikar.
I do really enjoy that they're including so many Eldrazi right as the story is about to return to them.
Commander:
R Daretti, Scrap Savant
BR Olivia Voldaren
BRG Shattergang Brothers
GUR Riku of Two Reflections
WBG Karador, Ghost Chieftain
Griselbrand is the GP foil that will be given out for all GPs around that time I am guessing.
Check out http://www.mtgbrodeals.com/author/john-murphy/ for my EDH articles!
Did you really just try to make a value comparison using Jace, the Mind Sculptor? Cmon buddy.
While I don't entirely dispute your point, the absolute peak for cards in standard is $50. Recent mythics getting to that were sphinx's rev, Jace AoT and voice of resurgence. That said, Goyf is twice the price I would think reasonable given that lili of the veil is at least on par in power and ubiquity.
Anyhow, it is somewhat pointless to compare Standard and Modern prices. Any standard card is subject to the downwards price pressure of being in print. If prices rice too high, more packs will get opened and bring the prices down.
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