This is the Vintage Masters Spoiler. If you know the rarities of a card or of another spoiler I missed, please feel free to post them as I haven't been able to keep up-to-date as I like.
It hits cards that were originally printed in Arabian Nights. A card's original printing is now a value the game is aware of & uses for determining what gets forced to be sacrificed. Specifically, it'll make you sacrifice & stop you from replaying Bazaar of Baghdad, City in a Bottle, Desert Twister, Erhnam Djinn, Library of Alexandria, and Serendib Efreet.
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Just by a number crunch, it is almost impossible for them to be mythic (which I don't think anyone expected given FoW at rare; FoW has always been more expensive on MTGO than revised duals), leaving rare the only plausible rarity.
It's not certain yet, however: if the UBR Conspiracy mythic is rarity shifted down to rare, and there are at most 3 more mythics that have not been spoiled yet they could theoretically be mythic.
Can we get rid of the old JOU spoiler and put a VMA spoiler up there instead?
We keep a spoiler up for a month after a set's release. Due to also having Conspiracy and M15 spoilers, adding one more on the top bar will cause... bad things... to happen. In addition, we are loathe to put up a set that's just reprints AND digital only. So, June 2nd I'm willing to put up the VMA spoiler, but I suspect we won't due to it's 100% reprint nature.
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She wants a ride on the pony, dude.
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Interesting Odin, so I was trying to figure out with your figures what the EV per VMA pack would be. I think I am doing it wrong but here was my thinking:
Rarity MTGOVM MTGOVM-Foil Amount Avg Cost Chance Pack Pack EV
C 10.1 154.4 101 0 10.00 $0.00
U 26.7 408.2 80 0.1 3.00 $0.30
R 120 1834.7 105 1.99 94.11% 0.94 $1.87
M 240 3669.2 30 16.75 4.00% 0.04 $0.67
S 477 7292.6 9 148.19 1.89% 0.02 $2.80
Total 325 $5.64
Essentially my thought is you have a 94.11% of getting a rare, 4% a Mythic and 1.89% a Special. So discounting all foils, am I right in a $5.64 EV? I feel like I am not looking at this correctly...
But you CAN calculate the EV of a pack by using the current market price of each reprinted card. You can get a solid value by ignoring the special slot and focusing on just the mythics and rares. The special slot is extra. Assuming that a foil of anything is at least as good as the non-foil then it does significantly affect the EV of a pack, just like it did for MMA. In order words, you can think of the special/foil slot as a low chance to randomly create a second rare. (Or Black Lotus.)
I'm working on the EV now, even with "zeros" for the unspoiled cards. (Assume they're all Kamigawa dragons, whatever.) I expect it to exceed $7 easily. Meaning, yes, on launch day (if this holds) you should absolutely crack $500 worth. Or at least try to draft it.
If even one piece of P9 hits $100 then the EV of the set will be ridiculous. There was a period of time towards the end of ME4 (the set with all 10 duals) that the price of the lowest dual was worth a redraft, and one cracked an average of .8 dual lands per draft. When that went nix tix people were getting paid to draft and drop. The only reason the economy didn't crash and cause $1 Seas is because for some reason only about 100 people were doing it. I suppose it was a form of work to sit there and fire drafts, rare draft, drop, find a bot...
So I would assume that the EV of VMA drafting cannot stay above $7 like ME4 for this set because of the larger interest and marketing. If that is the case then there are 30 mytics and if we use Odin's 16.75 average cost then it seems quite possible that top Mythics like Mishra's Workshop could still be over 30-40 tickets no?
So I would assume that the EV of VMA drafting cannot stay above $7 like ME4 for this set because of the larger interest and marketing. If that is the case then there are 30 mytics and if we use Odin's 16.75 average cost then it seems quite possible that top Mythics like Mishra's Workshop could still be over 30-40 tickets no?
Definitely. I'm keeping my Shops. If a mythic is needed as a one-of, it might drop, but it might rise for increased demand. If a mythic in VMA is needed as a 4-of then its VMA printing will do it no good. If you're getting one Workshop every 240 boosters and one Black Lotus every 477 boosters, then what good is it? Buy a playset of ME4 Shops today.
All of the mythics so far fall under one of two rules.
1) Reprinted from another set where the card was not mythic. (Workshop, Upheaval.)
2) Vintage Restricted (basically all of them)
3) Dack Fayden
And even then the mythics under rule 1 are limited to the pillars*. The five pillars of Vintage are: Oath, Dark Ritual, Mana Drain, Workshop, and Force. (I think it's supposed to be Null Rod aggro, whatever.) Anyway, technically, all of the Vintage shells are already available online. Forbidden Oath, Gush Bond, Workshop and spheres, all of them. And Wizards wanted the iconic Vintage staples to be mythic.
*(And Upheaval, which is the second dumbest card of all time after Stasis. I bet they'd make Stasis mythic too.)
Definitely. I'm keeping my Shops. If a mythic is needed as a one-of, it might drop, but it might rise for increased demand. If a mythic in VMA is needed as a 4-of then its VMA printing will do it no good. If you're getting one Workshop every 240 boosters and one Black Lotus every 477 boosters, then what good is it? Buy a playset of ME4 Shops today.
Assuming VM dramatically outsells MED4, I expect Workshop to be more expensive than Ancestral in the longterm, and maybe even moreso than Lotus. Ditto Bazaar and Mana Drain. (Unless the Vintage metagame dramatically shifts; it would not surprise me if Vintage gets partly 'solved' by virtue of many more people playing it competitively, and as a result some restrictions/unrestrictions may end up happening).
I'm pretty new to all this vintage stuff and the history of masters edition on MTGO, I originally thought VM was introducing 100% new cards to MTGO, but obviously this isn't the case?
In terms of the set how many completely new to MTGO cards are we expecting? and are these going to be scattered at all levels of rarity?
My question is this are the commons and uncommon going to be basically worthless since all the value will be in the higher rarities and we will be seeing more copies or the commons and uncommons.
I this going to end with every card now available on MTGO, or is there a weird subset of cards not worth bringing over?
I'm pretty new to all this vintage stuff and the history of masters edition on MTGO, I originally thought VM was introducing 100% new cards to MTGO, but obviously this isn't the case?
In terms of the set how many completely new to MTGO cards are we expecting? and are these going to be scattered at all levels of rarity?
My question is this are the commons and uncommon going to be basically worthless since all the value will be in the higher rarities and we will be seeing more copies or the commons and uncommons.
I this going to end with every card now available on MTGO, or is there a weird subset of cards not worth bringing over?
There's not enough 100% new cards to add and have a viable Limited format. Plus, there's a number of chronically underprinted cards on MTGO that need to be available in the future (cough, cough, Rishadan Port, which carries a huge price tag despite only being a fringe Legacy card because it is so rare).
The number of completely new cards will be low.
As for commons/uncommons: They are always low priced in an environment with as much trade liquidity as MTGO. Remand is a low-ish supply, very high demand uncommon and only goes for 4 tickets.
There will be some cards not online. WotC are scouring the ~800 not online cards for all the corner-case playable cards but some (like Conservator) will not be online and will not be missed by anyone. The only important card not online and not yet in the spoiler is Virtue's Ruin, which everyone is certain will be in the set.
@sirgog: While not super important cruel bargain is not yet online as well and is necessary for the spanish inquisition in legacy to be playable.
Workshop going for more than lotus is quite unlikely to happen simply because of how iconic lotus is AND lotus appears in almost every vintage deck. Workshop is playable in one archetype and that's shops. The pillars of vintage are null rod based aggro, mana drain (control), workshops, bazaar of baghdad based decks namely dredge, and dark ritual based combo. Oath is not a pillar in vintage and people have argued for its restriction for that reason.
What Annorax stated about city in a bottle is correct. It was just errata'ed to that last year or something to shut off just cards originally printed in arabian nights/now your arabian nights mountains will not get blown up by city in a bottle. Notable cards originally from arabian nights: City of brass, erhnam djinn, serendib efreet, bazaar of baghdad, library of alexandria, and desert twister. Unsure as to whether city of brass will be in VM as of yet but it wouldn't surprise me if it was.
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"Yawgmoth," Freyalise whispered as she set the bomb, "now you will pay for your treachery."
Now this is just the maximum that the set can be worth as long as it is in print. However, no set reaches this theoretical maximum ever. If we allow for that the prices might be something like $100 for the average piece of power, $10 for Mythics, $1.50 for Rares, and 10c for the best Uncommons.
Rarity levels are pretty screwed, considering stuff like FoW and Duals are printed at rare, while Skullclamp is a Mythic.
Skullclamp is on a must-answer-immediatelly level of good, particularly in a limited environment. It just wins games almost on its own. FoW and duals are "merely" very good.
Such amazing cards so far! If only it was possible for this set to exist in paper printing...
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~A golden helix streaked skyward from the Helvault. A thunderous explosion shattered the silver monolith and Avacyn emerged, free from her prison at last.~
Has wizards mentioned anywhere how long this will be available? I remember the old masters editions being available for 2 or 3 months, modern masters was shorter, hopefully they go with a longer period of time.
WHITE
Astral Slide - Uncommon
Balance - Mythic Rare
Battle Screech - Common
Decree of Justice - Rare
Kongming, "Sleeping Dragon" - Rare
Parallax Wave - Rare
Teroh's Faithful - Common
BLUE
Ancestral Recall - Special
Brain Freeze
Circular Logic - Common
Control Magic - Rare
Counterspell
Force of Will - Rare
Jace, the Mind Sculptor - Mythic Rare
Mana Drain - Mythic Rare
Morphling - Mythic Rare
Serendib Efreet
Temporal Fissure - Common
Time Walk - Special
Timetwister - Special
Upheaval - Mythic Rare
BLACK
Cruel Bargain - Rare
Demonic Tutor - Mythic Rare
Ichorid - Rare
Living Death - Rare
Nature's Ruin - Rare
Necropotence - Rare
Predatory Nightstalker - Common
Reanimate - Uncommon
Recurring Nightmare - Rare
Tyrant's Choice - Common
Yawgmoth's Bargain - Mythic Rare
Yawgmoth's Will - Mythic Rare
RED
Chaos Warp - Rare
Goblin Commando - Common
Goblin General - Common
Goblin Goon - Uncommon
Goblin Settler - Uncommon
Goblin Warchief - Uncommon
Hulking Goblin - Common
Kaervek's Torch - Uncommon
Orcish Lumberjack
Solar Blast - Common
Wheel of Fortune - Mythic Rare
GREEN
Arrogant Wurm - Common
Channel - Mythic Rare
Desert Twister
Elephant Guide - Common
Erhnam Djinn
Eureka - Mythic Rare
Fastbond
Norwood Priestess - Rare
Oath of Druids - Mythic Rare
Sylvan Library - Rare
Yavimaya Elder - Uncommon
MULTICOLOR
Basandra, Battle Seraph - Rare
Brago, King Eternal - Rare
Dack Fayden - Mythic Rare
Fires of Yavimaya
Magister of Worth - Rare
Marchesa, the Black Rose
Prophetic Bolt - Uncommon
Selvala, Explorer Returned - Rare
ARTIFACT
Black Lotus - Special
City in a Bottle - Mythic Rare
Lion's Eye Diamond - Mythic Rare
Mana Crypt - Mythic Rare
Memory Jar - Mythic Rare
Mox Emerald - Special
Mox Jet - Special
Mox Pearl - Special
Mox Ruby - Special
Mox Sapphire - Special
Skullclamp - Mythic Rare
Time Vault - Mythic Rare
LAND
Badlands
Bayou
Bazaar of Baghdad - Mythic Rare
Library of Alexandria
Mishra's Workshop - Mythic Rare
Plateau
Savannah
Scrubland
Taiga
Tolarian Academy - Mythic Rare
Tropical Island
Tundra
Underground Sea
Volcanic Island
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Can we get rid of the old JOU spoiler and put a VMA spoiler up there instead?
http://www.classicquarter.com/Article/63
Norwood Priestess (rare) is also in:
https://imgur.com/rJdYd65
How does City in a Bottle work in limited with this set?
It hits cards that were originally printed in Arabian Nights. A card's original printing is now a value the game is aware of & uses for determining what gets forced to be sacrificed. Specifically, it'll make you sacrifice & stop you from replaying Bazaar of Baghdad, City in a Bottle, Desert Twister, Erhnam Djinn, Library of Alexandria, and Serendib Efreet.
https://twitch.tv/annorax10 (classic retro speedruns & occasional MTGO/MTGA screwaround streams)
https://twitch.tv/SwiftorCasino (yes, my team and I run live dealer games for the baldman using his channel points as chips)
I meant for Norwood Priestess, sorry.
Also, for reference, the Jacob Kory tweet about Fastbond is here: https://twitter.com/MTGKoby/status/466721660142641152
Here's the tweet about the Priestess:
https://twitter.com/mtgworth/status/466794525029957633
Also, Magister of Worth is in as a rare:
https://twitter.com/mtgworth/status/466655625037217792
Just by a number crunch, it is almost impossible for them to be mythic (which I don't think anyone expected given FoW at rare; FoW has always been more expensive on MTGO than revised duals), leaving rare the only plausible rarity.
It's not certain yet, however: if the UBR Conspiracy mythic is rarity shifted down to rare, and there are at most 3 more mythics that have not been spoiled yet they could theoretically be mythic.
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Rarity MTGOVM MTGOVM-Foil Amount Avg Cost Chance Pack Pack EV
C 10.1 154.4 101 0 10.00 $0.00
U 26.7 408.2 80 0.1 3.00 $0.30
R 120 1834.7 105 1.99 94.11% 0.94 $1.87
M 240 3669.2 30 16.75 4.00% 0.04 $0.67
S 477 7292.6 9 148.19 1.89% 0.02 $2.80
Total 325 $5.64
Essentially my thought is you have a 94.11% of getting a rare, 4% a Mythic and 1.89% a Special. So discounting all foils, am I right in a $5.64 EV? I feel like I am not looking at this correctly...
I'm working on the EV now, even with "zeros" for the unspoiled cards. (Assume they're all Kamigawa dragons, whatever.) I expect it to exceed $7 easily. Meaning, yes, on launch day (if this holds) you should absolutely crack $500 worth. Or at least try to draft it.
If even one piece of P9 hits $100 then the EV of the set will be ridiculous. There was a period of time towards the end of ME4 (the set with all 10 duals) that the price of the lowest dual was worth a redraft, and one cracked an average of .8 dual lands per draft. When that went nix tix people were getting paid to draft and drop. The only reason the economy didn't crash and cause $1 Seas is because for some reason only about 100 people were doing it. I suppose it was a form of work to sit there and fire drafts, rare draft, drop, find a bot...
So I would assume that the EV of VMA drafting cannot stay above $7 like ME4 for this set because of the larger interest and marketing. If that is the case then there are 30 mytics and if we use Odin's 16.75 average cost then it seems quite possible that top Mythics like Mishra's Workshop could still be over 30-40 tickets no?
All of the mythics so far fall under one of two rules.
1) Reprinted from another set where the card was not mythic. (Workshop, Upheaval.)
2) Vintage Restricted (basically all of them)
3) Dack Fayden
And even then the mythics under rule 1 are limited to the pillars*. The five pillars of Vintage are: Oath, Dark Ritual, Mana Drain, Workshop, and Force. (I think it's supposed to be Null Rod aggro, whatever.) Anyway, technically, all of the Vintage shells are already available online. Forbidden Oath, Gush Bond, Workshop and spheres, all of them. And Wizards wanted the iconic Vintage staples to be mythic.
*(And Upheaval, which is the second dumbest card of all time after Stasis. I bet they'd make Stasis mythic too.)
Note that we already knew Bazaar was in -- what's worth noting here is that this confirms it as being mythic.
https://twitter.com/MagicOnline/status/467064436109230081
Decree of Justice:
https://twitter.com/MagicOnline/status/467063165600010241
Kongming, "Sleeping Dragon":
https://twitter.com/MagicOnline/status/467061898769215488
Assuming VM dramatically outsells MED4, I expect Workshop to be more expensive than Ancestral in the longterm, and maybe even moreso than Lotus. Ditto Bazaar and Mana Drain. (Unless the Vintage metagame dramatically shifts; it would not surprise me if Vintage gets partly 'solved' by virtue of many more people playing it competitively, and as a result some restrictions/unrestrictions may end up happening).
I'm pretty new to all this vintage stuff and the history of masters edition on MTGO, I originally thought VM was introducing 100% new cards to MTGO, but obviously this isn't the case?
In terms of the set how many completely new to MTGO cards are we expecting? and are these going to be scattered at all levels of rarity?
My question is this are the commons and uncommon going to be basically worthless since all the value will be in the higher rarities and we will be seeing more copies or the commons and uncommons.
I this going to end with every card now available on MTGO, or is there a weird subset of cards not worth bringing over?
There's not enough 100% new cards to add and have a viable Limited format. Plus, there's a number of chronically underprinted cards on MTGO that need to be available in the future (cough, cough, Rishadan Port, which carries a huge price tag despite only being a fringe Legacy card because it is so rare).
The number of completely new cards will be low.
As for commons/uncommons: They are always low priced in an environment with as much trade liquidity as MTGO. Remand is a low-ish supply, very high demand uncommon and only goes for 4 tickets.
There will be some cards not online. WotC are scouring the ~800 not online cards for all the corner-case playable cards but some (like Conservator) will not be online and will not be missed by anyone. The only important card not online and not yet in the spoiler is Virtue's Ruin, which everyone is certain will be in the set.
Workshop going for more than lotus is quite unlikely to happen simply because of how iconic lotus is AND lotus appears in almost every vintage deck. Workshop is playable in one archetype and that's shops. The pillars of vintage are null rod based aggro, mana drain (control), workshops, bazaar of baghdad based decks namely dredge, and dark ritual based combo. Oath is not a pillar in vintage and people have argued for its restriction for that reason.
What Annorax stated about city in a bottle is correct. It was just errata'ed to that last year or something to shut off just cards originally printed in arabian nights/now your arabian nights mountains will not get blown up by city in a bottle. Notable cards originally from arabian nights: City of brass, erhnam djinn, serendib efreet, bazaar of baghdad, library of alexandria, and desert twister. Unsure as to whether city of brass will be in VM as of yet but it wouldn't surprise me if it was.
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Skullclamp is on a must-answer-immediatelly level of good, particularly in a limited environment. It just wins games almost on its own. FoW and duals are "merely" very good.
Parallax Wave at rare: https://twitter.com/MagicOnline/status/467371220522917888/photo/1
Cruel Bargain at rare: https://twitter.com/MagicOnline/status/467372501043924993/photo/1
Goblin Commando at common: https://twitter.com/MagicOnline/status/467384816925540352/photo/1
Hulking Goblin at common: https://twitter.com/MagicOnline/status/467385094596857856/photo/1