Modern Masters released in 2 Waves confirmed today

  • #308
    Frankly, the limited nature is what tends to irritate me with these products. I think for a test run, MM has succeeded. If this trend continues for future MM releases, I will be fairly irritated. The sell out does show a demand and a need for new releases of old product to keep the game competitive.


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  • #309
    There is a chapter in the book "The Fifth Discipline" that describes very much what is being discussed here for MM:

    1. First the product comes out and sells out
    2. Second a larger number of potential buyers issue orders to balance what they perceive to be a difficult-to-acquire product
    3. Then the frenzy calms down and the second wave of players interested in the product does not materialize.
    4. Then a lot of the product that was ordered in the second wave sits around unsold.

    This process for MM could take three or four years..... but at the end of the day no matter how attractive this product currently seems, the reality is that the vast majority of players are casual players with a finite amount of money to spend, and when Theros comes out, well, .....we will likely see re-allocation of money from what could have been a Modern boom back into the cash cow that will always be Standard.....that's my two cents
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  • #310
    My lgs told me they only got 6 boxes and it was all for draft. Nothing about a restock later.
  • #311
    Quote from Ross Edwards
    No, the WOTC reorder email went out this morning. Stores can order... wait for it... 48 packs. Two boxes. Eat your heart out. Distributors may be able to provide a few boxes more, depending on how GP Vegas goes. I'm sure that restock is going to TOTALLY SATISFY demand!!!


    I was at my LGS today and he said the same thing. That he got an e-mail that said Wizards will allow you to order two more boxes. He did mention distributors might be able to provide more, but it doesn't look like a whole lot more is coming in the future based on Wizard's official e-mail.
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  • #312
    Everyone who claimed this product would last weeks/months... yea....

    Hell, i think even wizards said it would be around for a couple months. Yea, try 1 week.

    Supply is gone, in the next month ebay listings will be pushing 350+

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  • #313
    Quote from dwchang
    I was at my LGS today and he said the same thing. That he got an e-mail that said Wizards will allow you to order two more boxes. He did mention distributors might be able to provide more, but it doesn't look like a whole lot more is coming in the future based on Wizard's official e-mail.


    I was lucky enough to get two boxes of modern masters from my LGS for $170 each.

    He got a similar email today however he is receiving 3 more boxes instead of 2.

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  • #314
    Quote from jimmyrussles77
    Everyone who claimed this product would last weeks/months... yea....

    Hell, i think even wizards said it would be around for a couple months. Yea, try 1 week.

    Supply is gone, in the next month ebay listings will be pushing 350+


    Calm your horses dude, this:

    Quote from rubiera
    at the end of the day no matter how attractive this product currently seems, the reality is that the vast majority of players are casual players with a finite amount of money to spend, and when Theros comes out, well, .....we will likely see re-allocation of money from what could have been a Modern boom back into the cash cow that will always be Standard.....that's my two cents


    Is true, while SCG will claim to be sold out soon and a lot of scalpers will follow, product will indeed sit because there are a lot of sellers that refuse to sell-out by the box and are holding drafts or selling by the booster. This is the case in my city and thankfully not even the most naive "dealers" think buying at $12/booster is a good investment, and there's more low income casual players than people who care about modern or the staples in this.
    While this is anecdotical, I wouldn't be surprised at all if this same set-up of stores not selling-out to scalpers, dealers not seeing the immediate investment necessary and players not caring to happen a lot around the world.

    MM will last at least a month and it may even see a (small) drop in price.
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  • #315
    CardKingdom, which is local for us in the Seattle area currently has more than 100 boxes listed on their website. Yeah, the price is high, but there is clearly some product left out there.
  • #316
    Any more info on how many boxes this 'second wave' will be? Will it be a set # a week maybe? When does it end?
  • #317
    Quote from alfindeol
    CardKingdom, which is local for us in the Seattle area currently has more than 100 boxes listed on their website. Yeah, the price is high, but there is clearly some product left out there.


    Nobody was seriously claiming there would be literally 0 product available. You can still buy revised booster boxes 19 years after release, of course there's still going to be Modern Masters boxes when we're 2 days out from release.

    People were claiming that the bulk of the supply would be gone in short order, thus leading to a rapid inflation of price on the boxes that remain. CardKingdom having a large stock of boxes available for nearly double MSRP does nothing to refute that claim.
  • #318
    Quote from JerseyBricklayer
    Any more info on how many boxes this 'second wave' will be? Will it be a set # a week maybe? When does it end?


    There is none...
  • #319
    Quote from Meowmeowzor
    There is none...


    False.

    My card store confirmed he would be receiving 3 more boxes in about a week, in addition to his initial supply he was already alotted.

    Wanna Trade?
    Standard: RW Boros Sligh
    Modern: RG Karn Tron & UBTezz Affinity & BRG Living End
    Modern: BRG Jund & WWSoul Sisters & WGEnchantress
    EDH: RWB Kaalia of the Vast & WUBRG Slivers


    Collection Tracker
    (UPDATED 05/11/2014)
  • #320
    We're getting only 2 more boxes after getting 18 boxes in the first shipment.
  • #321
    It's funny, the Bullmoose near me still has like 2 boxes unopened as of yesterday. But I live in Maine, so that may be part of it.
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  • #322
    Plenty of supply left at $300usd + postage. Whos desperate?
  • #323
    2-3 boxes isn't a restock, its a joke. My local LGS sold out its entire non-draft stock (its kept back enough to do 2 40-man drafts, and any they don't use will be given to the people on the waiting list) on pre-orders in May and their waiting list is like 35 names long - and that's with a limit of 1 box per person. 2 boxes is not going to clear the pre-order waiting list, its just gonna end up as another "damn, I was 3rd on the waiting list" moments where you get 95% of the people disappointed.

    A restock of 4-5 cases would have been a restock, this is almost a waste of shipping costs.
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  • #324
    The one LGS I went to yesterday had 8 MM 8 man drafts and is expecting the same for today. When I asked the owner if we will be drafting MM for a while, he said the LGS should be in stock until the M14 release, probably a bit after. He is doing MM for FNM the next few weeks on top of RTR block to see the desire to play MM.

    I have only done 3 drafts of MM and find it to be an amazing draft set that gives every player at the table to get their money back.
  • #325
    Well my local card shop has pre-sold the only three boxes they got and then said they would try to get more to do a draft. Sadly I don't think I will keep my hopes up.
  • #326
    Quote from Robert_G
    I'll second on that in regards you being lied to. Even here in Canada the most any LGS paid is 110 per box. The profit margin is insane considering LGSs pays about 80 per box of the latest standard set and sells for about 110-130

    MM is 110 cost max per box and selling for 250 plus. That is a profit margin of over 125% compared to 50% on the latest standard set.


    Yeah, thinking about it that way, I just realized that with over 110 boxes from my store with the average sell price of about 180-190, my store owner easily raked in a cool $8K from this set. That's friggin nutzo!! I don't have a problem with that profit at all, because he offers us such amazing prices and prizes for everything, that I truly expect him to raise prices every once in a while and make some money for a change.

    Despite expecting sealed MM to spike in price in a couple months, it is nice to see that the staple cards have dropped a good 10-20%. It makes sense, because over just a few hours time on Friday, I witnessed at least 5 Tarmogoyfs being pulled, 3 of which were foil! How ridiculous is that?!?! Now I don't expect those to go for the same prices as the originals would, but that's a lot of goyfs let alone foils for maybe just 15 boxes or so that I watched get opened. I think we had some freak boxes, because it seamed like the boxes I witnessed being opened had an average of 3-4 Mythics. I personally opened 3 regular, and 1 foil Mythic in my single box. I was kind of disappointed as I was going through my box in the beginning, as my first pack was Jugan. A couple packs later was Foil Keiga, and I sighed, expecting to never pull another Mythic in my box. Then towards the end I got the sweet stuff, opening Vedalken Shackles and then a Dark Confidant. Not too shabby. In the end, my box was over $200 value in just Rares, putting me way over on value for my box. Total was somewhere around 270-290 at my store's sell prices. At SCG's sell prices I probably made somewhere around $330-350 considering the Foil Keiga, Dark Confidant, and Foil Grand Arbiter Augustin IV is $100 from them.
  • #327
    Quote from Archie

    Despite expecting sealed MM to spike in price in a couple months, it is nice to see that the staple cards have dropped a good 10-20%.


    This can be explained by comparing the markets for sealed product and singles.

    --2 weeks ago, EBay was flooded with MM boxes; retailers were selling them by the case, causing prices be found in the 215-230 range with ease. Now, supply is drying up at a rapid pace, boxes are being posted in lots of 1 or 2, and finding one for 240 is considered a bargain.

    --At the same time, packs are being opened, and singles prices of these cards will hit lows as a result due to the increased supply. Most WPNs held their MM drafts on June 7, and the market is feeling the effect of the overstock. If anything, the expectation that the supply of singles will dry up as well is keeping prices relatively high.

    --Over time, both boxes and singles will be difficult to locate in great quantity, causing prices to go north, but for now, box supply is going way down because they are "transforming" into the singles, reducing the supply of one to aid the supply of the other.
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  • #328
    Not sure where everyone is getting their data, but in the last week the prices for MM have responded a bit opposite of everyone's fears on this thread:

    1. The eBay ending prices have dipped from $260 to $230-$240 over the last week. They may increase again before the '2nd wave' comes in but there's a good amount still for sale. At least 600+ boxes on Buy-It-Now for less than $260/box, and 200+ boxes on active auctions.
    2. Singles prices are dropping rapidly which I think will lead to decreased demand for retail product as folks can get the key singles (even foil versions) for cheaper than even the originals despite a much more limited print run.

    I'm not claiming the predict the future as new supply dries up, but there appears to be still plenty of product in active channels.

    We also haven't seen a rush (which I think we may) as sellers get stuck with boxes they paid $250+ for, and worry about a rapid drop in price as players realize $12-15 per pack is just not worth the gamble. We're already down to just 9 cards worth over $12 retail, that will begin hitting the perceived pack value pretty quickly.
  • #329
    Quote from digitek
    Not sure where everyone is getting their data, but in the last week the prices for MM have responded a bit opposite of everyone's fears on this thread:

    1. The eBay ending prices have dipped from $260 to $230-$240 over the last week. They may increase again before the '2nd wave' comes in but there's a good amount still for sale. At least 600+ boxes on Buy-It-Now for less than $260/box, and 200+ boxes on active auctions.
    2. Singles prices are dropping rapidly which I think will lead to decreased demand for retail product as folks can get the key singles (even foil versions) for cheaper than even the originals despite a much more limited print run.

    I'm not claiming the predict the future as new supply dries up, but there appears to be still plenty of product in active channels.

    We also haven't seen a rush (which I think we may) as sellers get stuck with boxes they paid $250+ for, and worry about a rapid drop in price as players realize $12-15 per pack is just not worth the gamble. We're already down to just 9 cards worth over $12 retail, that will begin hitting the perceived pack value pretty quickly.


    My data comes from viewing EBay on a 10-second refresh for the past week and a half, which I am currently doing now. I disagree with quite a few of your claims.

    --I was able to easily get boxes of this product at $215-230 a week ago off EBay simply by being patient. The supply at these prices was plentiful enough to accommodate case demand at these levels. Now, ANYTHING that is $240 or lower is on EBay for 20 minutes, maximum, and keep in mind that I have not been actively buying boxes over the past 24 hours. The low price right now is close to $245-250.

    --Most people I have spoken to actually are surprised that singles have not fallen further than they have, especially at the common and uncommon rarities. Mythics are barely dented, as well.

    --Retail product and singles have demand curves that do not correlate, or correlate weakly at best. Those who buy the retail product for box appreciation want the sealed product, anyway, and those who use it for singles investment still appreciate the overall value.

    --Of course there is still plenty of product in active channels--every corner of the globe drafted this 2 days ago and players are trying to unload their singles, especially if they only play Standard.

    --I think my above statement qualifies as a "rush". Expect a mini-rush after GPLV, as well.

    --Sellers who purchase boxes for investment purposes are not going to "fear" and sell off their boxes. Those who have the money to purchase them are usually the seasoned speculators, who have developed the patience to allow the market to mature. To allude that we were ever "gambling" with this set can be taken as an unflattering statement. We do not gamble

    --If you expect this downward pricing trend to continue well into the future, you are likely going to be incorrect. This is likely the troph of the market, the time which supply will be the highest.
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  • #330
    My data comes from viewing EBay on a 10-second refresh for the past week and a half, which I am currently doing now. I disagree with quite a few of your claims.


    Not going to restate all of the good points you raised. You're likely correct on a lot especially the "collectors" who will hold onto sealed products for years. But on singles and boxes, I just haven't seen firm data yet that we've reached the bottom, especially with this "2nd wave". I always express caution when reading speculation that prices are bottoming out - one of my top purposes on this forum is to protect player investments, especially surrounding reprints.

    On that note I do want to show a number of data points (using purely retail prices, eBay prices appear to be falling even faster) that indicate a significant drop just 2 days after release ranging from uncommon to mythic:


    It may appear I'm being selective here, but that's because I'm avoiding cards that featured new art, which I believe is an excellent way to preserve card value despite reprints. Unfortunately for the above cards, Wizards choose to use the original art, leading to an average 40% drop in price over just 2 days. For anyone holding onto the above cards, their collection just took a big hit. It may recover, but the hit was very predictable.

    Now looking at retail prices will notice many of the original printings are still retaining a bit of their old prices, but every historical reprinting has shown this is short-lived, and the originals eventually fall down to match the newer prices (for cases when the art is the same), not the opposite. People just don't care about original printings when the only difference is the set symbol.

    It'd be great if someone had any further data on when/how big the 2nd wave will be.
  • #331
    The store owner I was talking to yesterday said that the 2nd shipment direct from Wizards is 2 boxes. However, he should also be getting more from his distributor but he doesn't know how much more yet and will hopefully know more about that on Wednesday.
  • #332
    Quote from digitek
    Not going to restate all of the good points you raised. You're likely correct on a lot especially the "collectors" who will hold onto sealed products for years. But on singles and boxes, I just haven't seen firm data yet that we've reached the bottom, especially with this "2nd wave". I always express caution when reading speculation that prices are bottoming out - one of my top purposes on this forum is to protect player investments, especially surrounding reprints.

    On that note I do want to show a number of data points (using purely retail prices, eBay prices appear to be falling even faster) that indicate a significant drop just 2 days after release ranging from uncommon to mythic:


    It may appear I'm being selective here, but that's because I'm avoiding cards that featured new art, which I believe is an excellent way to preserve card value despite reprints. Unfortunately for the above cards, Wizards choose to use the original art, leading to an average 40% drop in price over just 2 days. For anyone holding onto the above cards, their collection just took a big hit. It may recover, but the hit was very predictable.

    Now looking at retail prices will notice many of the original printings are still retaining a bit of their old prices, but every historical reprinting has shown this is short-lived, and the originals eventually fall down to match the newer prices (for cases when the art is the same), not the opposite. People just don't care about original printings when the only difference is the set symbol.

    It'd be great if someone had any further data on when/how big the 2nd wave will be.


    Give it 3-6 months and everything should be close to rebound
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