Momir Vig, Simic Visionary
Melek, Izzet Paragon
Oona, Queen of the Fae
Bruna, Light of Alabaster
Gisela, Blade of Goldnight
Rhys the Redeemed
Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord
Sen Triplets
The Mimeoplasm WUBRGSliver OverlordGRBUW WUBRGSliver Hivelord(Superfriends)GRBUW
So, with regards to the question of "how many times can you expect to use Molten Birth?":
Let E be the expected number of heads (I.E. coin flips won), and P(x) be the probability of flipping exactly x heads.
To flip exactly 0 heads, we must flip T. Probability = 1/2
To flip exactly 1 heads, we must flip HT. Probability = 1/4
To flip exactly 2 heads, we must flip HHT. Probability = 1/8
and so on.
E = P(1) + 2P(2) + 3P(3) + 4P(4)...
E = 1/4 + 2/8 + 3/16 + 4/32... (1)
Divide both sides by 2:
E/2 = 1/8 + 2/16 + 3/32... (2)
Subtract (2) from (1):
(The terms cancel out like so: 2/8 - 1/8 = 1/8, 3/16 - 2/16 = 1/16, etc)
E/2 = 1/4 + 1/8 + 1/16 + 1/32... (3)
Divide (3) by 2:
E/4 = 1/8 + 1/16 + 1/32... (4)
Subtract (4) from (3):
E/4 = 1/4
E = 1
You can expect to flip 1 heads, and thus use Molten Birth 2 times.
It's like, you open a booster. You want to know, on average, how much the cards that you open are worth. It could be anything from Possibility Storm ($0) to Voice of Resurgence ($30). What you do is multiply the probability that you open X card by its price. Do this for every card, then add all the values together.
Let's say, for simplicity's sake, that we only have one of 3 cards in our booster, and the cards are worth $0, $0 and $30 respectively. We have an equal chance to open each card. The expected value of the pack would be:
0 * 1/3 + 0 * 1/3 + 30 * 1/3 = 10
None of the cards are worth $10, yet the average is $10. There's nothing wrong with that.
So, with regards to the question of "how many times can you expect to use Molten Birth?":
Let E be the expected number of heads (I.E. coin flips won), and P(x) be the probability of flipping exactly x heads.
E = P(1) + 2P(2) + 3P(3) + 4P(4)...
E = 1/2 + 2/4 + 3/8 + 4/16... (1)
Divide both sides by 2:
E/2 = 1/4 + 2/8 + 3/16... (2)
Subtract (2) from (1):
(The terms cancel out like so: 2/4 - 1/4 = 1/4, 3/8 - 2/8 = 1/8, etc)
E/2 = 1/2 + 1/4 + 1/8 + 1/16... (3)
Divide (3) by 2:
E/4 = 1/4 + 1/8 + 1/16... (4)
Subtract (4) from (3):
E/4 = 1/2
E = 2
You can expect to flip 2 heads, and thus use Molten Birth 3 times.
The probability of flipping exactly one head isn't 1/2, it's 1/4 (H,T). Similarly, P(2)=1/8, not 1/4. The intermediate computation is good, but all your P(x)'s are off by a factor of two, so you arrived at E=2 when it should be E=1. You can expect to get it back once, cast it twice, and make a total of four tokens.
Note:While this method works fine, it is much simpler to observe that the expected number of Tokens, T, is equal to 1/2*LoseValue+1/2*WinValue=1/2*2+1/2*(2+T) and use simple algebra from there.
The probability of flipping one head isn't 1/2, it's 1/4 (H,T). Similarly, P(2)=1/8, not 1/4. The intermediate computation is good, but all your P(x)'s are off by a factor of two, so you arrived at E=2 when it should be E=1. You can expect to get it back once, cast it twice, and make a total of four tokens.
Note:While this method works fine, it is much simpler to observe that the expected number of Tokens, T, is equal to 1/2*LoseValue+1/2*WinValue=1/2*2+1/2*(2+T) and use simple algebra from there.
Yes, that is correct. Forgot the tails right after heads.
I was just doing some more computation (this has piqued my interest now) and Krark's Thumb has a much smaller effect than you'd expect. Even with four copies (yay Mirror Gallery) your expected value is only 64 tokens.
Edit: Nope that's all wrong, but it was an issue with my understanding of Krark's Thumb. 4 copies will actually bring your EV up to 131072 tokens, which is much more fun.
I can see Lil' Pyro (makes 1/1's from spells), Empty the Generators (2 1/1's, flip to return) and Angry Angry Ogre (+2/+0 and haste guy) making a pretty damned decent deck.
Yes, the M14 draft format looks like it will be fun.
You can cast it and then discard it to Liliana though, which is kind of close. And it's better versus Shaman, Ooze, etc. I think the main reasons Souls is great and this isn't are:1)flying, 2) the fact that this is only worth 3 tokens on average if you're only willing to sink 6 mana into it, and 3)the concave down valuation function on the number of tokens made.
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I primarily play limited, so most of my spoiler season comments view cards through that lens.
These spoilers make me want to play rakdos control. Lilana's reaver and vampire nighthawk is pretty brutal to curve nicely into while young pyromancer allows more value out of all my removal and burn.
the creatures being in more colours is a disadvantage not an advantage, if you want you can play merfolk with more colours of your choice:O
That really depends, a lot of the important Merfolk are UU, which is not exactly better than 1G and 1W in terms of casting cost in a format with no Force of Will.
More importantly as the importance of a certain colour goes up, the worse off you are with the UU cost, since it becomes harder to splash, as opposed to the proverbial WG cost, depending if the card you want is in the latter not former colour combination.
...except instead of being amazing, revered, format-defining and absurdly powerful, it'll be (*edit, read the card wrong) completely unplayable outside of Limited a mediocre to fine 2-drop?
Seems reasonable.
This isn't on the same planet as Snapcaster/Goyf/Stoneforge/Confidant.
I rather like the art for Young Pyromancer. Makes me think of that Chandra-worshiping kid from the Purifying Fire book, Brannon.
For what my scrub opinion is worth, I'm excited for this core set.
Though I do hope we see some blue and black Slivers soon. I wasn't even playing the last time Slivers were in the game, and I still think it's weird to see Naya only.
So . . . many . . . creature tokens! [oprah]YOU GET CREATURE TOKENS! AND YOU GET CREATURE TOKENS! EVERYONE GETS CREATURE TOKENS![/oprah]
*EDIT* Wow, Brainstorm effects keep getting worse. Didn't we just get Forbidden Alchemy at instant speed? Was Glimpse of the Future that powerful at 1U?
*EDIT2* We're only 1/3 of the way through the set, but it doesn't look like we're getting any anniversary throwbacks to A/B/U/R Magic.
...except instead of being amazing, revered, format-defining and absurdly powerful, it'll be completely unplayable outside of Limited.
Seems reasonable.
It's obviously not that powerful but I think completely unplayable outside of limited is a gross understatement. Counter-burn decks will certainly give this kid a go in standard considering they've already got a fair amount of tools
You can cast it and then discard it to Liliana though, which is kind of close. And it's better versus Shaman, Ooze, etc. I think the main reasons Souls is great and this isn't are:1)flying, 2) the fact that this is only worth 3 tokens on average if you're only willing to sink 6 mana into it, and 3)the concave down valuation function on the number of tokens made.
In that case it isn't averaging to Lingering Souls. In that case it's averaging to 1RR with 50% flashback. You only get the average stats you stated if you continue to use it until you lose a flip. Which is another weakness, some value is lost because the 10+ cast games aren't adding value.
In that case it isn't averaging to Lingering Souls. In that case it's averaging to 1RR with 50% flashback. You only get the average stats you stated if you continue to use it until you lose a flip.
It's obviously not that powerful but I think completely unplayable outside of limited is a gross understatement. Counter-burn decks will certainly give this kid a go in standard considering they've already got a fair amount of tools
I thought it only triggered on your spells dealing them damage...being able to get 1/1s from chaining some cheap card draw spells could be sweet.
You can cast it and then discard it to Liliana though, which is kind of close. And it's better versus Shaman, Ooze, etc. I think the main reasons Souls is great and this isn't are:1)flying, 2) the fact that this is only worth 3 tokens on average if you're only willing to sink 6 mana into it, and 3)the concave down valuation function on the number of tokens made.
I was pointing out that casting and then pitching isn't really close to pitching Lingering Souls and then casting. 1.5 casts + discards vs 2 casts + discards.
It's a real shame that Young Pyromancer didn't show up a few months ago. It all but perfectly fits into my current storm deck in Standard.
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
In my dream, the world had suffered a terrible disaster. A black haze shut out the sun, and the darkness was alive with the moans and screams of wounded people. Suddenly, a small light glowed. A candle flickered into life, symbol of hope for millions. A single tiny candle, shining in the ugly dark. I laughed and blew it out.
Many thanks to HotP Studios. Special thanks to DNC for this great sig.
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Not sure about 10 (though it massively broadened PW availability, which is good),
But M13 brought Omniscience (and, briefly, Worldfire).
Also, Sublime Archangel, Akroma's Memorial, and Thundermaw Hellkite.
Boundless Realms is pretty EDH friendly as well.
So yeah, Core Sets have been good to EDH.
Reprint Stasis!
Control needs more love.
EDH:
Momir Vig, Simic Visionary
Melek, Izzet Paragon
Oona, Queen of the Fae
Bruna, Light of Alabaster
Gisela, Blade of Goldnight
Rhys the Redeemed
Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord
Sen Triplets
The Mimeoplasm
WUBRGSliver OverlordGRBUW
WUBRGSliver Hivelord(Superfriends)GRBUW
Let E be the expected number of heads (I.E. coin flips won), and P(x) be the probability of flipping exactly x heads.
To flip exactly 0 heads, we must flip T. Probability = 1/2
To flip exactly 1 heads, we must flip HT. Probability = 1/4
To flip exactly 2 heads, we must flip HHT. Probability = 1/8
and so on.
E = P(1) + 2P(2) + 3P(3) + 4P(4)...
E = 1/4 + 2/8 + 3/16 + 4/32... (1)
Divide both sides by 2:
E/2 = 1/8 + 2/16 + 3/32... (2)
Subtract (2) from (1):
(The terms cancel out like so: 2/8 - 1/8 = 1/8, 3/16 - 2/16 = 1/16, etc)
E/2 = 1/4 + 1/8 + 1/16 + 1/32... (3)
Divide (3) by 2:
E/4 = 1/8 + 1/16 + 1/32... (4)
Subtract (4) from (3):
E/4 = 1/4
E = 1
You can expect to flip 1 heads, and thus use Molten Birth 2 times.
| Ad Nauseam
| Infect
Big Johnny.
Here, Wikipedia's explanation.
It's like, you open a booster. You want to know, on average, how much the cards that you open are worth. It could be anything from Possibility Storm ($0) to Voice of Resurgence ($30). What you do is multiply the probability that you open X card by its price. Do this for every card, then add all the values together.
Let's say, for simplicity's sake, that we only have one of 3 cards in our booster, and the cards are worth $0, $0 and $30 respectively. We have an equal chance to open each card. The expected value of the pack would be:
0 * 1/3 + 0 * 1/3 + 30 * 1/3 = 10
None of the cards are worth $10, yet the average is $10. There's nothing wrong with that.
| Ad Nauseam
| Infect
Big Johnny.
The probability of flipping exactly one head isn't 1/2, it's 1/4 (H,T). Similarly, P(2)=1/8, not 1/4. The intermediate computation is good, but all your P(x)'s are off by a factor of two, so you arrived at E=2 when it should be E=1. You can expect to get it back once, cast it twice, and make a total of four tokens.
Note:While this method works fine, it is much simpler to observe that the expected number of Tokens, T, is equal to 1/2*LoseValue+1/2*WinValue=1/2*2+1/2*(2+T) and use simple algebra from there.
Interested in Custom Card Creation.
My Cube:Cardinal Custom Cube
A custom version of a third modern masters: MM2019
(filter->rarity to see in set rarity).
Yes, that is correct. Forgot the tails right after heads.
| Ad Nauseam
| Infect
Big Johnny.
I also like Guardian of the Ages and Ring of Three Wishes.
Edit: Nope that's all wrong, but it was an issue with my understanding of Krark's Thumb. 4 copies will actually bring your EV up to 131072 tokens, which is much more fun.
Interested in Custom Card Creation.
My Cube:Cardinal Custom Cube
A custom version of a third modern masters: MM2019
(filter->rarity to see in set rarity).
Heavier color costs, more mana, no flying, less consistent and more vulnerable to discard/mill/counters. That is a lot of weaknesses.
The difference is you can pitch Lingering Souls to Liliana of the Veil and flash it back for 1B. Not so with Molten Birth.
| Ad Nauseam
| Infect
Big Johnny.
Yes, the M14 draft format looks like it will be fun.
And Scavenging Ooze at rare, yay!
You can cast it and then discard it to Liliana though, which is kind of close. And it's better versus Shaman, Ooze, etc. I think the main reasons Souls is great and this isn't are:1)flying, 2) the fact that this is only worth 3 tokens on average if you're only willing to sink 6 mana into it, and 3)the concave down valuation function on the number of tokens made.
Interested in Custom Card Creation.
My Cube:Cardinal Custom Cube
A custom version of a third modern masters: MM2019
(filter->rarity to see in set rarity).
That really depends, a lot of the important Merfolk are UU, which is not exactly better than 1G and 1W in terms of casting cost in a format with no Force of Will.
More importantly as the importance of a certain colour goes up, the worse off you are with the UU cost, since it becomes harder to splash, as opposed to the proverbial WG cost, depending if the card you want is in the latter not former colour combination.
...except instead of being amazing, revered, format-defining and absurdly powerful, it'll be (*edit, read the card wrong)
completely unplayable outside of Limiteda mediocre to fine 2-drop?Seems reasonable.
This isn't on the same planet as Snapcaster/Goyf/Stoneforge/Confidant.
the fire - I will become the flame." - Lim-Dûl, the Necromancer
For what my scrub opinion is worth, I'm excited for this core set.
Though I do hope we see some blue and black Slivers soon. I wasn't even playing the last time Slivers were in the game, and I still think it's weird to see Naya only.
*EDIT* Wow, Brainstorm effects keep getting worse. Didn't we just get Forbidden Alchemy at instant speed? Was Glimpse of the Future that powerful at 1U?
*EDIT2* We're only 1/3 of the way through the set, but it doesn't look like we're getting any anniversary throwbacks to A/B/U/R Magic.
It's obviously not that powerful but I think completely unplayable outside of limited is a gross understatement. Counter-burn decks will certainly give this kid a go in standard considering they've already got a fair amount of tools
In that case it isn't averaging to Lingering Souls. In that case it's averaging to 1RR with 50% flashback. You only get the average stats you stated if you continue to use it until you lose a flip. Which is another weakness, some value is lost because the 10+ cast games aren't adding value.
Yes. Exactly. That's point 2.
Yes. Exactly. That's point 3.
We seem to be in complete agreement, so I'm a little confused about your post.
Interested in Custom Card Creation.
My Cube:Cardinal Custom Cube
A custom version of a third modern masters: MM2019
(filter->rarity to see in set rarity).
I thought it only triggered on your spells dealing them damage...being able to get 1/1s from chaining some cheap card draw spells could be sweet.
This guy LOVES Burn at the Stake.
the fire - I will become the flame." - Lim-Dûl, the Necromancer
I was pointing out that casting and then pitching isn't really close to pitching Lingering Souls and then casting. 1.5 casts + discards vs 2 casts + discards.
Many thanks to HotP Studios. Special thanks to DNC for this great sig.