Here's a little pet project of mine. It's very hard to find out how well books are selling. The Nielson organization has a service where they poll most online and offline retailers to decide how well a book is selling, but that costs about $800 a month. But because another poster on the Wizards boards came up with a pretty silly standard of popularity, I thought I'd do one that took a little more effort. I've looked at Amazon's customer reviews section for each one of the post-revision books, and the data is a little funny (funny if you're a data-fanatic like myself).
The Excel file shows the ratings for each book broken down under Amazon's 1-5 star rating system, then shows a total of all user ratings. Next comes the percentage of the ratings (how many out of 14 ratings were 4 stars, how many were 3 stars, etc.). Last is a look at what percentage of the ratings were positive and which were negative (4s and 5s equal positive, 1s and 2s equal negative, 3s are ommitted as their borderline).
The attached picture is what seems more alarming to me. It's a graph of how many customer reviews were left for the "main" novel line. By that, I mean it omits the Legends books, the Ice Age books, and the anthologies (Rath and Storm is included, however). This is done because, well, they don't get very many reviews (poor Hazezon--it wasn't that bad). You'll notice a, shall we say, downward trend in the number of people actually taking the time to review the books these days. I realize that the newer books will have less reviews (less people have read them but hopefully will eventually), but the old data shows user reviews being left early in the novel's life cycle, with fewer and fewer reviews as time goes by. Not very hard to see the point I'm getting at here.
I'd be very interested in hearing anyone else's insights (especially improvements on this "survey"). If anyone is unable to view the Excel file and would like to see the data, let me know and I'll just post it as text.
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I couldn't think of a good way to label the individual points on the graph without making the chart really big (meaning I wouldn't have been able to upload it). If anybody can think of good way to put the data together, let me know.
There HAS to be a better way to make this data relational, but I hate Microsoft products with every facet of my being and as such know little about Excel.
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Even if the numbers are a bit funny, I find Amazon to be a much more credible source of data than, say, DeviantArt (y'know, for example).
Yeah. DeviantArt. Wow!
And, yes, the data is extremely screwy. Amazon is never a good place to find positive/negative reviews (I much prefer iblist.com). But the main thing that I took away from this brief study was the sheer drop in any sort of customer reviews. The way I look at the data, there are two possibilities: (1) people aren't buying them; or (2) people are buying them, reading them, and then don't feel the need to comment. I'm more inclined to discount (1) and go with (2). People are buying them because, well, we have two (and a half really) forums in which to discuss them. It seems more likely that people buy them, don't really care for them, and then don't review them. It's very interesting to note that the people who are reviewing them are leaving reviews like "Lorwyn is teh best book ev-ar!" and leaving five star ratings. It doesn't exactly bode well for WotC's audience target.
But, again, this data is very screwy. If someone can think of a more accurate way of looking at how many books are being sold then I'll be the first to look into it. Again, there's the Nielson findings but I don't have an extra $800 a year. Well, I do, but I'd rather spend it on Metal Gear Solid 4 if given the opportunity.
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That sounds like a rant I'd be interested in seeing. And, no MGS4 itself isn't $800, but the PS3 is $500 and I had to buy one to get that game. And wait three weeks for delivery. I absolutely hate living in the middle of the Pacific. So, yeah, total it's only about $625 after shipping and tax.
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The graph reminds me of a B-2 bomber coming in to carpet bomb someone. Waaaay up there then inches above the ground. Let's hope the Earth-shattering kaboom is still a few years away.
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Update: Due to the overall suckiness of Excel, the graph represented blank cells as "0". This graph is more representative and should correspond one-for-one with the novels listed above.
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The graph reminds me of a B-2 bomber coming in to carpet bomb someone. Waaaay up there then inches above the ground. Let's hope the Earth-shattering kaboom is still a few years away.
Well, depends. If they keep going downhill as they're supposedly are now. Then we might see that "kaboom" sooner rather than later. But I don't think it's going to happen that way. You're talking about mtg novel-wise right? I think you are.
Yes, definitely. If anything, the survey shows that people aren't finding the books favorable enough to comment on them anymore. Look at The Brothers' War: 79 (I think) reviews, and only two of them are negative. In fact, 76 of them were 4-stars or 5-stars. So people do like to comment on books that they found enjoyable.
Looking at the newer books ... well, yeah, not so much. I suppose the "kaboom" has probably already happened in a sense--not a lot of people are reading these books anymore.
Of course I'd love to see evidence to the contrary.
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no like a link to some sites that gives reviews to Magic books ala rotten tomatoes for the movies. however, thanks for pointing out the amazon.com ones
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no like a link to some sites that gives reviews to Magic books ala rotten tomatoes for the movies. however, thanks for pointing out the amazon.com ones
Ah! Gotcha. No, unfortunately. The big-name sci-fi/fantasy review sites wouldn't bother with this storyline. So there aren't any sites out there that have reviewed these books.
That is ... yet. *hint hint*
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The Excel file shows the ratings for each book broken down under Amazon's 1-5 star rating system, then shows a total of all user ratings. Next comes the percentage of the ratings (how many out of 14 ratings were 4 stars, how many were 3 stars, etc.). Last is a look at what percentage of the ratings were positive and which were negative (4s and 5s equal positive, 1s and 2s equal negative, 3s are ommitted as their borderline).
The attached picture is what seems more alarming to me. It's a graph of how many customer reviews were left for the "main" novel line. By that, I mean it omits the Legends books, the Ice Age books, and the anthologies (Rath and Storm is included, however). This is done because, well, they don't get very many reviews (poor Hazezon--it wasn't that bad). You'll notice a, shall we say, downward trend in the number of people actually taking the time to review the books these days. I realize that the newer books will have less reviews (less people have read them but hopefully will eventually), but the old data shows user reviews being left early in the novel's life cycle, with fewer and fewer reviews as time goes by. Not very hard to see the point I'm getting at here.
I'd be very interested in hearing anyone else's insights (especially improvements on this "survey"). If anyone is unable to view the Excel file and would like to see the data, let me know and I'll just post it as text.
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and wow did you put a lot of time into that
edit: i suppose i should not be lazy and actually download the spreadsheet to see for myself
Even if the numbers are a bit funny, I find Amazon to be a much more credible source of data than, say, DeviantArt (y'know, for example).
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I couldn't think of a good way to label the individual points on the graph without making the chart really big (meaning I wouldn't have been able to upload it). If anybody can think of good way to put the data together, let me know.
In the meantime, the points on the line are, in order:
1 - BW, 2 - R&S, 3 - Planeswalker, 4 - Time Streams, 5 - Bloodlines, 6 - Masques, 7 - Nemesis, 8 - Prophecy, 9 - Thran, 10 - Invasion, 11 - Planeshift, 12 - Apocalypse, 13 - Odyssey, 14 - Torment, 15 - Judgment, 16 - Onslaught, 17 - Legions, 18 - Scourge, 19 - Mirrodin, 20 - Darksteel, 21 - 5th, 22 - Champions, 23 - Betrayers, 24 - Saviors, 25 - Ravnica, 26 - Guildpact, 27 - Dissension, 28 - TS, 29 - PC, 30 - FS, 31 - Lorwyn, 32 - Morningtide, 33 - Shadowmoor, 34 - Eventide.
There HAS to be a better way to make this data relational, but I hate Microsoft products with every facet of my being and as such know little about Excel.
Yeah. DeviantArt. Wow!
And, yes, the data is extremely screwy. Amazon is never a good place to find positive/negative reviews (I much prefer iblist.com). But the main thing that I took away from this brief study was the sheer drop in any sort of customer reviews. The way I look at the data, there are two possibilities: (1) people aren't buying them; or (2) people are buying them, reading them, and then don't feel the need to comment. I'm more inclined to discount (1) and go with (2). People are buying them because, well, we have two (and a half really) forums in which to discuss them. It seems more likely that people buy them, don't really care for them, and then don't review them. It's very interesting to note that the people who are reviewing them are leaving reviews like "Lorwyn is teh best book ev-ar!" and leaving five star ratings. It doesn't exactly bode well for WotC's audience target.
But, again, this data is very screwy. If someone can think of a more accurate way of looking at how many books are being sold then I'll be the first to look into it. Again, there's the Nielson findings but I don't have an extra $800 a year. Well, I do, but I'd rather spend it on Metal Gear Solid 4 if given the opportunity.
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Looking at the newer books ... well, yeah, not so much. I suppose the "kaboom" has probably already happened in a sense--not a lot of people are reading these books anymore.
Of course I'd love to see evidence to the contrary.
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Ah! Gotcha. No, unfortunately. The big-name sci-fi/fantasy review sites wouldn't bother with this storyline. So there aren't any sites out there that have reviewed these books.
That is ... yet. *hint hint*
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Awesome banner by SpiderBoy4 of High~Light Studios. Thanks a lot!