Another video on Twitter shows it is randomized. In short, mistakes happen.
Not on this level. They are charging a premium for this product based solely on the price of the singles cards and are cutting quality assurance testing in the process. That and they are releasing this into a very unfriendly market at the moment. People are still grumbly over the card selection.
Hope they got a card replacement program ready.
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Is anyone but Rudy calling for there being an issue? Its 2 boxes for Rudy had the issue vs however many by this LGS without the issue.
I mean I dont care, because as you say the set itself was super blah. I'm still sour over them holding back the Dom spoilers...
It wasn't just Rudy. It seems there was at least a batch that wasn't randomized properly and there are some serious printing problems present that could make the cards unplayable.
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Is anyone but Rudy calling for there being an issue? Its 2 boxes for Rudy had the issue vs however many by this LGS without the issue.
I mean I dont care, because as you say the set itself was super blah. I'm still sour over them holding back the Dom spoilers...
I know someone personally who sells product that had 2 pairs of duplicate boxes in a case now. An LGS is highly unlikely to come forward and confirm this because they'd lose so much money. And trying to sue wizards they'd lose a ton of money as well.
Is anyone but Rudy calling for there being an issue? Its 2 boxes for Rudy had the issue vs however many by this LGS without the issue.
I mean I dont care, because as you say the set itself was super blah. I'm still sour over them holding back the Dom spoilers...
I know someone personally who sells product that had 2 pairs of duplicate boxes in a case now. An LGS is highly unlikely to come forward and confirm this because they'd lose so much money. And trying to sue wizards they'd lose a ton of money as well.
Exactly. There aren't going to be a ton of people claiming this as they would be shooting themselves in the foot as they are trying to sell these they have already bought. We won't ever know the extent of the problem unless people who buy individual boxes start to report they are getting the crap rares and LGS and online retailers are flush with the good stuff. Things get so stacked against the end buyer.
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Playing since 1994: Currently MAGS (HomeBrew),Standard & Pauper (Pioneer and Modern are degenerate trash formats)
STOP using "dude/bro" as a pejorative or insult. Grow up.
Margaret Thatcher: “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”
Benjamin Franklin: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Martin Luther King Jr.: "I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."
I saw a video this morning where someone pieces together the results of 12 box openings. No duplicate boxes at all. However there does seem to be a strange effect in the randomization that they DID notice.
No single boxes EVER got a dupe rare. Which means 24 unique rares appeared in ever single box. And due to this fact, when you open multiple boxes in a set with only 53 rares and 17 mythics, you are bound to get overlap somewhere.
According to the theory, Wizards did this to reduce the volatility of the boxes. By doing this, you will still have a gambling factor to boxes, but you shouldn't see some boxes worth 50 bucks and other boxes worth 400. Ideally the boxes should all average out to be better for the consumer and have "crap" boxes still be worth 170ish dollars and good boxes will be closer to 300. So you figure a +/- of about 50 dollars from MSRP.
So we'll have to see how that ultimately plays out.
Playing since 1994: Currently MAGS (HomeBrew),Standard & Pauper (Pioneer and Modern are degenerate trash formats)
STOP using "dude/bro" as a pejorative or insult. Grow up.
Margaret Thatcher: “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”
Benjamin Franklin: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Martin Luther King Jr.: "I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."
Much like the leaks, the problem is human failure. Where Wizards deserves blame is that they are highly idealogically-similar people to important positions instead of just sharp people. They are trying a little too hard to be woke, and not hard enough to be a source of escapist fun. If only the energy spent on making "they" the new grammatically-incorrect singular pronoun instead went towards creative design and effective administration, this would not have occurred. Nor would the Dominaria leak.
I'm gonna go ahead and say there's no correlation here.
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"Pop in, find a dragon, roast a dragon."
-Chandra Nalaar
As I said in the other thread, after watching several box openings and seeing just how bad it can get with pulls in these boxes there is zero reason to buy these at 175-190 dollars. I'm actually seeing if I can do a return of a sealed box because if I can get store credit at least I'm fine with it. I'm thinking of just using the credit to get a box of unstable and get more full arts. The full art in every pack and a foily token seems like a better deal to me than this.
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
No single boxes EVER got a dupe rare. Which means 24 unique rares appeared in ever single box. And due to this fact, when you open multiple boxes in a set with only 53 rares and 17 mythics, you are bound to get overlap somewhere.
That is a bizarre comment. I mean really, if you open the boxes and crack all the packs inside, you'll get overlap with the rares no matter what happens. This is true with every Masters set.
What scenario would one not get overlap of any kind with the existing card rarity ratios?
I mean, I was under the impression that boxes weren't supposed to be truly random, since they intentionally don't want too many copies of a rare/mythic to show up at the same draft table and keep the distribution of colors fairly even throughout the draft. It's certainly a problem if too many boxes have the same/similar rng seed, of course (because mapping), but a small number of boxes happening to hit the same portion of the print run and coincidentally ending up in the same case doesn't seem like the end of the world.
I'll be concerned when I see something like someone being able to open 10 sealed boxes in front of me and guess the rare slot with even 10% accuracy. Until then, I'll continue not buying M25 and saving my money for DOM instead.
I mean, I was under the impression that boxes weren't supposed to be truly random, since they intentionally don't want too many copies of a rare/mythic to show up at the same draft table and keep the distribution of colors fairly even throughout the draft. It's certainly a problem if too many boxes have the same/similar rng seed, of course (because mapping), but a small number of boxes happening to hit the same portion of the print run and coincidentally ending up in the same case doesn't seem like the end of the world.
I'll be concerned when I see something like someone being able to open 10 sealed boxes in front of me and guess the rare slot with even 10% accuracy. Until then, I'll continue not buying M25 and saving my money for DOM instead.
That's honestly the most sensible thing to do at the moment. The other would be Modern Masters 2017 assuming the price hike hasn't hit yet on all the boxes.
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
No single boxes EVER got a dupe rare. Which means 24 unique rares appeared in ever single box. And due to this fact, when you open multiple boxes in a set with only 53 rares and 17 mythics, you are bound to get overlap somewhere.
That is a bizarre comment. I mean really, if you open the boxes and crack all the packs inside, you'll get overlap with the rares no matter what happens. This is true with every Masters set.
What scenario would one not get overlap of any kind with the existing card rarity ratios?
The difference is I've open lots of single boxes of eternal, iconic, and M17 boxes and have gotten copies of the same rare in the same box. I've gotten copies of the same rares in a lot of standard set boxes as well.
The idea that no single box will have a dupe rare is new.
No single boxes EVER got a dupe rare. Which means 24 unique rares appeared in ever single box. And due to this fact, when you open multiple boxes in a set with only 53 rares and 17 mythics, you are bound to get overlap somewhere.
That is a bizarre comment. I mean really, if you open the boxes and crack all the packs inside, you'll get overlap with the rares no matter what happens. This is true with every Masters set.
What scenario would one not get overlap of any kind with the existing card rarity ratios?
The difference is I've open lots of single boxes of eternal, iconic, and M17 boxes and have gotten copies of the same rare in the same box. I've gotten copies of the same rares in a lot of standard set boxes as well.
The idea that no single box will have a dupe rare is new.
I know, I discovered this a long time ago opening boxes.
It's simply that your comment makes it sound like we weren't getting overlap before with the old "randomization" and we're getting it now with the new.
But moving along, I don't know what I think about this detail. I agree with the idea this was done to smooth out drafting, I don't agree this was primarily done to smooth out box values. As an aside, this does help collectors ensure they get a better mix of cards.
In short, I think WotC did this almost entirely for drafting reasons. Any other benefit we might see, such as smoothing out the EV on boxes, collectibility, whatever is merely icing and sprinkles on the cake.
Is this a good thing? Err... I don't know. From the videos I'm seeing. It certainly feels like that rare isn't really rare but more like a U1 or something.
As far as draft goes, I've had a lot of people telling me that it doesn't make a good draft format due to lack of any real synergy. Frankly the set looks kind of messy and I think it'll end up being a set that doesn't too to hot. People might buy more singles to get the cards they need rather than gamble on packs or try to draft a bogus format.
As far as draft goes, I've had a lot of people telling me that it doesn't make a good draft format due to lack of any real synergy. Frankly the set looks kind of messy and I think it'll end up being a set that doesn't too to hot. People might buy more singles to get the cards they need rather than gamble on packs or try to draft a bogus format.
As far as draft goes, I've had a lot of people telling me that it doesn't make a good draft format due to lack of any real synergy. Frankly the set looks kind of messy and I think it'll end up being a set that doesn't too to hot. People might buy more singles to get the cards they need rather than gamble on packs or try to draft a bogus format.
I'm seeing similar sentiments elsewhere as well. I thought the Gavin article mentioning draft 17 times or some such was their attempt to defect the set from other formats like... well... any other format. But now I'm wondering if they realized how bad it is as a draft set and tried to seed the idea it's a good set for draft? I really can't wrap my head around the notion that a set designed specifically for draft sucks right out of the gate?? How would such a set get that far in production without someone going, "golly gee Beav', this set is no fun." Would it have something to do with the last minute swap on the Tree?
The problem with masters 25 is that they had a budget limitation and conflicting goals. My thoughts are they should have had no choice but to load this set with one mythic or rare per set, so master of cruelties would be here with purphuros, snap caster mage, collected company, etc. Instead, they made a nightmare death bomb of just tons of cobbled together garbage that is making me think the original idea got hacked up like one piece did with fox kids.
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
The fact that one box opener getting lots of duplicates over two boxes and another getting no dupes are both being used as evidence that Wizards is ****ening with the randomness tells me no-one in this thread understands what a random distribution is.
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“Tell me who you walk with, and I'll tell you who you are.” Esmeralda Santiago Art is life itself.
no-one in this thread understands what a random distribution is.
And if you can't figure out that 23 out of 24 rares being the exact same across 2 boxes isn't randomness then you are included in your own description.
I am going to find the equation that will tell you what the odds of pulling 23 of 24 exact rares in 2 separate boxes and then calculate the odds. I'm guessing the odds are going to be like a quadrillion to one. If there are 55 rares and you hit 23 of 24 consecutively its akin to a Lottery ticket with 24 numbers to choose with the balls reading 1 to 55 and 23 of 24 numbers come up the exact same on back to back lotto picks. The odds are ridiculously against this happening. And although it could be random, it is for all intents and purposes impossible.
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Playing since 1994: Currently MAGS (HomeBrew),Standard & Pauper (Pioneer and Modern are degenerate trash formats)
STOP using "dude/bro" as a pejorative or insult. Grow up.
Margaret Thatcher: “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”
Benjamin Franklin: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Martin Luther King Jr.: "I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."
Yeah so feel free to respond to the part of my post you skipped over to get to the bit you got hooked on because right now it looks like you read it as "The fact that one box opener getting lots of duplicates over two boxes is being used as evidence" and that's not what i wrote because there's like seven words missing lmao but lets break this down.
To save you the trip: my points weren't that Wizards couldn't possibly be ****ening, they were
a) probability is weird to our gooey human brains, and ***** happens that should be impossible (or at least difficult) statistically with big regularity but no-one cares because they're not looking for intention, sample hypothetical quote "omg I got Jace and Recruiter and Akroma in my first three packs, what are the odds?" and the answer is like (1/121)*(1/121)*(1/121) for dependent results, I think, so 5.6447393e-7? or (1/121)*3=0.02479338842 (base odds taken from this linked topic but I'm obviously half-assing the hell out of this and it's been like 7 years since I cared about statistics and im doing this from memory so the actual numbers in calculation are probably different but I don't care tbh)
and you can continue this so it's like "Omg I got two boxes and in each box I got four mythics and twenty rares, and I love all of them, what are the odds of that?" and the odds are like (1/121)*(1/121)*(1/121)*(2/121)*(2/121)*(2/121)*(2/121)*(2/121)*(2/121)*(2/121)*(2/121)*(2/121)*(2/121)*(2/121)*(2/121)*(2/121)*(2/121)*(2/121)*(2/121)*(2/121)*(2/121)*(2/121)*(2/121)*(1/121)=1.0808142e-44 for a specific result or ((1/121)*4)*((2/121)*20)=0.01092821528 for the odds of just a sequence of 4 and 20 and then square that because two boxes to get a final result (i think) but very few people get quite so hype about MTG so people don't talk like that.
The fact is, like I said, the odds of getting any specific sequence of cards (or lottery numbers etc) is so low as to seem near impossible, we've just blundered into a sequence you care about.
b) that both arguments I referenced are kinda contradictory, because one argument says the boxes being dupe fests must be to push up Jace (or something) and the other argument says there being no dupes in multiple boxes must also be part of a plotted scheme (probably also to push Jace, but according to the locked topic in rumor mill that plotted scheme is BIG NONBINARY REMAKING THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE so I wasn't intending to take much of this topic seriously but here we are) and essentially my whole reason for being in this topic is to read the banter
in conclusion, as much as I've *****talked Wizards for not shuffling their boosters correctly and building mappable boxes, this one duplicate box isn't enough evidence by itself to say the boxes aren't randomized because true randomness is eldritch bull***** which does stuff like this occasionally, and people saying that one box being duplicates is evidence at the same time as saying that other boxes not being duplicates is also evidence was funny to me, because it looked like people were just trying to find reasons to stay mad after they got mad.
I believe the formula you're using in example a) assumes that each pack rare has an equal opportunity to see any of the 121 rares or mythics as any other pack in the same box. Ergo, any given box should, statistically speaking, see duplicates within that box.
I think the issue being disputed is that there are no duplicates in the same box. So for each specific rare found in one pack in a given box, the other 23 packs will not see that same rare so the pool of available rare cards is reduced by 1 or 2. I assume the pool of available mythics for the other packs will drop to zero if a mythic appears in one pack.
Without duplicates in the same box, how many unique combinations would be seen? I figured about 8*10^18? I don't recall seeing a video with duplicate rares in the same box. With so many random combinations why did Rudy open two boxes with ~96% matching rares? With 8 Quintilian combos, these odds should be out of the park, no? Not saying it's impossible, just unlikely.
I'm thinking there aren't that many combinations due to restrictions WotC is enforcing. The obvious is the possible avoidance of God boxes (let's assume this is the case for now). So no chance of all Jace's or something.
Or a box with Jace might guarantee more jank rares in the same box.
Another could be matching groups of rares (such as the tree) with other playable matches for draft purposes. Again another assumption but bear with me here.
How much smaller would the number of combinations be with such rules? A trillion possible combinations? A million? As few as a thousand? I don't pretend to know because I don't know if WotC is actually doing that. It is, however, guaranteed that WotC does have the ability to "randomize" the cards any way they wish. That much we know for certain.
Am I wrong? Probably. I'm sure you can tear my logic apart like a sadistic kid tearing the legs off of a squirming spider. I'm actually inviting you, just don't let my post spider suffer.
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Spirits
Not on this level. They are charging a premium for this product based solely on the price of the singles cards and are cutting quality assurance testing in the process. That and they are releasing this into a very unfriendly market at the moment. People are still grumbly over the card selection.
Hope they got a card replacement program ready.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
I mean I dont care, because as you say the set itself was super blah. I'm still sour over them holding back the Dom spoilers...
Spirits
It wasn't just Rudy. It seems there was at least a batch that wasn't randomized properly and there are some serious printing problems present that could make the cards unplayable.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Spirits
I know someone personally who sells product that had 2 pairs of duplicate boxes in a case now. An LGS is highly unlikely to come forward and confirm this because they'd lose so much money. And trying to sue wizards they'd lose a ton of money as well.
Exactly. There aren't going to be a ton of people claiming this as they would be shooting themselves in the foot as they are trying to sell these they have already bought. We won't ever know the extent of the problem unless people who buy individual boxes start to report they are getting the crap rares and LGS and online retailers are flush with the good stuff. Things get so stacked against the end buyer.
STOP using "dude/bro" as a pejorative or insult. Grow up.
Margaret Thatcher: “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”
Benjamin Franklin: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Martin Luther King Jr.: "I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."
No single boxes EVER got a dupe rare. Which means 24 unique rares appeared in ever single box. And due to this fact, when you open multiple boxes in a set with only 53 rares and 17 mythics, you are bound to get overlap somewhere.
According to the theory, Wizards did this to reduce the volatility of the boxes. By doing this, you will still have a gambling factor to boxes, but you shouldn't see some boxes worth 50 bucks and other boxes worth 400. Ideally the boxes should all average out to be better for the consumer and have "crap" boxes still be worth 170ish dollars and good boxes will be closer to 300. So you figure a +/- of about 50 dollars from MSRP.
So we'll have to see how that ultimately plays out.
Now with some foil non-randomness as well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ygzb5j-lBR0
STOP using "dude/bro" as a pejorative or insult. Grow up.
Margaret Thatcher: “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”
Benjamin Franklin: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Martin Luther King Jr.: "I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."
-Chandra Nalaar
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
That is a bizarre comment. I mean really, if you open the boxes and crack all the packs inside, you'll get overlap with the rares no matter what happens. This is true with every Masters set.
What scenario would one not get overlap of any kind with the existing card rarity ratios?
I'll be concerned when I see something like someone being able to open 10 sealed boxes in front of me and guess the rare slot with even 10% accuracy. Until then, I'll continue not buying M25 and saving my money for DOM instead.
That's honestly the most sensible thing to do at the moment. The other would be Modern Masters 2017 assuming the price hike hasn't hit yet on all the boxes.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
The difference is I've open lots of single boxes of eternal, iconic, and M17 boxes and have gotten copies of the same rare in the same box. I've gotten copies of the same rares in a lot of standard set boxes as well.
The idea that no single box will have a dupe rare is new.
I know, I discovered this a long time ago opening boxes.
It's simply that your comment makes it sound like we weren't getting overlap before with the old "randomization" and we're getting it now with the new.
But moving along, I don't know what I think about this detail. I agree with the idea this was done to smooth out drafting, I don't agree this was primarily done to smooth out box values. As an aside, this does help collectors ensure they get a better mix of cards.
In short, I think WotC did this almost entirely for drafting reasons. Any other benefit we might see, such as smoothing out the EV on boxes, collectibility, whatever is merely icing and sprinkles on the cake.
Is this a good thing? Err... I don't know. From the videos I'm seeing. It certainly feels like that rare isn't really rare but more like a U1 or something.
Sure. I probably could have phrased it better.
As far as draft goes, I've had a lot of people telling me that it doesn't make a good draft format due to lack of any real synergy. Frankly the set looks kind of messy and I think it'll end up being a set that doesn't too to hot. People might buy more singles to get the cards they need rather than gamble on packs or try to draft a bogus format.
I'm seeing similar sentiments elsewhere as well. I thought the Gavin article mentioning draft 17 times or some such was their attempt to defect the set from other formats like... well... any other format. But now I'm wondering if they realized how bad it is as a draft set and tried to seed the idea it's a good set for draft? I really can't wrap my head around the notion that a set designed specifically for draft sucks right out of the gate?? How would such a set get that far in production without someone going, "golly gee Beav', this set is no fun." Would it have something to do with the last minute swap on the Tree?
That's a rabbit hole I want to avoid.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Art is life itself.
And if you can't figure out that 23 out of 24 rares being the exact same across 2 boxes isn't randomness then you are included in your own description.
I am going to find the equation that will tell you what the odds of pulling 23 of 24 exact rares in 2 separate boxes and then calculate the odds. I'm guessing the odds are going to be like a quadrillion to one. If there are 55 rares and you hit 23 of 24 consecutively its akin to a Lottery ticket with 24 numbers to choose with the balls reading 1 to 55 and 23 of 24 numbers come up the exact same on back to back lotto picks. The odds are ridiculously against this happening. And although it could be random, it is for all intents and purposes impossible.
STOP using "dude/bro" as a pejorative or insult. Grow up.
Margaret Thatcher: “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”
Benjamin Franklin: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Martin Luther King Jr.: "I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."
To save you the trip: my points weren't that Wizards couldn't possibly be ****ening, they were
a) probability is weird to our gooey human brains, and ***** happens that should be impossible (or at least difficult) statistically with big regularity but no-one cares because they're not looking for intention, sample hypothetical quote "omg I got Jace and Recruiter and Akroma in my first three packs, what are the odds?" and the answer is like (1/121)*(1/121)*(1/121) for dependent results, I think, so 5.6447393e-7? or (1/121)*3=0.02479338842 (base odds taken from this linked topic but I'm obviously half-assing the hell out of this and it's been like 7 years since I cared about statistics and im doing this from memory so the actual numbers in calculation are probably different but I don't care tbh)
and you can continue this so it's like "Omg I got two boxes and in each box I got four mythics and twenty rares, and I love all of them, what are the odds of that?" and the odds are like (1/121)*(1/121)*(1/121)*(2/121)*(2/121)*(2/121)*(2/121)*(2/121)*(2/121)*(2/121)*(2/121)*(2/121)*(2/121)*(2/121)*(2/121)*(2/121)*(2/121)*(2/121)*(2/121)*(2/121)*(2/121)*(2/121)*(2/121)*(1/121)=1.0808142e-44 for a specific result or ((1/121)*4)*((2/121)*20)=0.01092821528 for the odds of just a sequence of 4 and 20 and then square that because two boxes to get a final result (i think) but very few people get quite so hype about MTG so people don't talk like that.
The fact is, like I said, the odds of getting any specific sequence of cards (or lottery numbers etc) is so low as to seem near impossible, we've just blundered into a sequence you care about.
b) that both arguments I referenced are kinda contradictory, because one argument says the boxes being dupe fests must be to push up Jace (or something) and the other argument says there being no dupes in multiple boxes must also be part of a plotted scheme (probably also to push Jace, but according to the locked topic in rumor mill that plotted scheme is BIG NONBINARY REMAKING THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE so I wasn't intending to take much of this topic seriously but here we are) and essentially my whole reason for being in this topic is to read the banter
in conclusion, as much as I've *****talked Wizards for not shuffling their boosters correctly and building mappable boxes, this one duplicate box isn't enough evidence by itself to say the boxes aren't randomized because true randomness is eldritch bull***** which does stuff like this occasionally, and people saying that one box being duplicates is evidence at the same time as saying that other boxes not being duplicates is also evidence was funny to me, because it looked like people were just trying to find reasons to stay mad after they got mad.
Art is life itself.
I think the issue being disputed is that there are no duplicates in the same box. So for each specific rare found in one pack in a given box, the other 23 packs will not see that same rare so the pool of available rare cards is reduced by 1 or 2. I assume the pool of available mythics for the other packs will drop to zero if a mythic appears in one pack.
Without duplicates in the same box, how many unique combinations would be seen? I figured about 8*10^18? I don't recall seeing a video with duplicate rares in the same box. With so many random combinations why did Rudy open two boxes with ~96% matching rares? With 8 Quintilian combos, these odds should be out of the park, no? Not saying it's impossible, just unlikely.
I'm thinking there aren't that many combinations due to restrictions WotC is enforcing. The obvious is the possible avoidance of God boxes (let's assume this is the case for now). So no chance of all Jace's or something.
Or a box with Jace might guarantee more jank rares in the same box.
Another could be matching groups of rares (such as the tree) with other playable matches for draft purposes. Again another assumption but bear with me here.
How much smaller would the number of combinations be with such rules? A trillion possible combinations? A million? As few as a thousand? I don't pretend to know because I don't know if WotC is actually doing that. It is, however, guaranteed that WotC does have the ability to "randomize" the cards any way they wish. That much we know for certain.
Am I wrong? Probably. I'm sure you can tear my logic apart like a sadistic kid tearing the legs off of a squirming spider. I'm actually inviting you, just don't let my
postspider suffer.