I’m sure many of us already heard about Fatal Push being an uncommon card rarer than the other uncommons in the set, but the other day I heard someone saying that Fatal Push is a card rarer than cards that are actually in the rare slot.
That doesn’t sound right to me, so I was wondering if someone here, preferably with factual data, could clarify this matter about Fatal Push rarity.
Is this card as rare as some people claim, or are the unlucky booster openers just being too loud about it, and in reality the card is just as rare as any other uncommon in the set?
No, this and all other claims about "secret" rarities of cards that are held off from appearing on sheets at normal frequency are always wrong. Fatal Push has as much chance of appearing in the three uncommon slots of an Aether Revolt booster as the other 61 uncommons in the set.
So by print Sheets, theres enough Fatal Pushes around.
The irony is, i opened less Fatal Push in Aether Revolt than i opened Master Piece cards in Booster Drafts in that set (and they are hell lot more rare).
So that about statistics, the numbers that a single person opens is WAY too low to make any statement about what is odd or normal.
Ok, I did some math and considering you get 36 boosters in a box and 3 uncommon cards in a booster pack, in a set with 60 different uncommon cards, (you can expect to get roughly one fatal push for every other box) Oops, wrong math.
You can expect to get at least one fatal push per box, and there’s a high chance of getting a second fatal push in one booster box.
Isn’t this what people are/were experiencing?
In order words, (there’s roughly a 50% chance of getting just one fatal push in one booster box. Therefore, it’s normal to open a booster box and get no fatal push cards) - Oops, wrong math.
Yeah, unfortunately the people who actually did the mass openings have a much different story to tell. Whether by some unforeseen circumstance or by intentional design, the card did show up less than some other uncommons in the set. What I don't agree with is that Fatal Push was as rare as a mythic. It was more like it was caught between being a rare and uncommon. What I think would put the story to bed is if the mega sellers like SCG, Channel Fireball, and Card Kingdom could pitch in on the numbers opened, assuming they have records.
Also, as far as variance goes, I've had a friend open a booster box of Innistrad that had 3 Snapcaster Mage in it. Those kinds of things can happen as much as someone getting nothing but all the junk rares and maybe one or two good ones.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
We know for a fact that the information provided in this video is false. We have literally seen uncut print sheets, legally and illegally obtained. Unless one of the super huge organizations speaks up about something odd(they are the only ones who actually open enough product to see through the variance), or we get a look at an uncut sheets with improper distribution, then there is no reason to jump on this conspiracy theory.
Fatal Push is no where more rare than other uncommons.
And it doesnt even make sense, on the Print Sheets it has the same number as the other uncommons.
But if you look for just 1 specific uncommon, your perception will be extremely shifted to look out for exactly that card.
----
I am not sure if print sheets in US are any different than in EU , maybe that is a factor too (while i doubt it).
I don't think there is a conspiracy at all. Wizards has had packs of cards where a rare is missing from the pack while other packs sometimes have two rares. It's not super common, but packing errors have been known to happen with MTG booster packs. Let's say every 1/16 packs that were supposed to have a fatal push in them in a particular run of boxes ended up with some other uncommon in it's place: It doesn't sound like a lot, but that would be all it would take to make it harder to find than other uncommon cards.
Again, I'm not supporting the entire "mythic rare" uncommon insanity because if it was that bad pre-order season would have had a very large number of back orders and angry customers. I think there may have been a print or packing error on one or two runs of the boxes and some unlucky people cracked those boxes, starting up the entire rumor.
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Sensei's Divining Top - i opened so much Kami and swear that thing felt like it was the first Mythic.
See, I had the exact opposite experience. I feel like every single draft I did I got a Top in at least 1 of the packs. By the time Kamigawa rotated out of standard (as did I, as I took a break from Magic around then) I had about 16 Tops. Then again, I was also the person who opened 6 Cranial Extractions in under a week (which was the most expensive Rare in the set at the time). Needless to say, I was pretty happy when I came back to Magic and started playing Commander that I had all these Tops.
In theory, the probability of getting a specific uncommon card in a booster box is higher than the probability of getting a specific rare.
That influences the expectations of someone who is chasing a specific card, in the way that, if the desired card is rare, you may be discouraged to chase it because you know the odds of getting it are small. Now, if the card is uncommon you are more inclined to chase it because the odds of getting it are more kind.
So, if a card is labelled uncommon and is as rare as a card labelled rare, the consumer is misled, and may buy more product than he would if the card was labelled accordingly.
Why though? If Fatal Push is as rare as a rare why not just print it as rare?
It's not as rare as a rare though.
I agree, but the OP is presupposing that there is a conspiracy in distribution to make it so. I am asking why would they bother with such a conspiracy.
To the goal would be to have more sales and make more money, obviously.
But I'm not presupposing anything. I assumed this subject is common knowledge, and I brought it to this forum in hope of getting people's experiences, and hopefully some factual data that corroborates or denies the assumption that fatal push is rarer than the other uncommons in the set.
To the goal would be to have more sales and make more money, obviously.
But I'm not presupposing anything. I assumed this subject is common knowledge, and I brought it to this forum in hope of getting people's experiences, and hopefully some factual data that corroborates or denies the assumption that fatal push is rarer than the other uncommons in the set.
I think the Venn diagram of "People who open packs for chase uncommons" and "People who open packs for rares" is nearly a circle.
To the goal would be to have more sales and make more money, obviously.
If there aren't any chase rares in the set, sure. If there is even one chase rare, however, packs are going to be opened to chase it. Since that set had Masterpieces...
But I'm not presupposing anything. I assumed this subject is common knowledge, and I brought it to this forum in hope of getting people's experiences, and hopefully some factual data that corroborates or denies the assumption that fatal push is rarer than the other uncommons in the set.
By saying "I assumed this subject is common knowledge" you're coming in with the bias that Fatal Push is a "rare" uncommon.
It's not.
Well my 1 box sample size that counts for absolutely nothing statistically had 2 Fatal Pushes in it which is right at the expected 1-2 cards per box average.
Yeah, I watched a few box openings on youtube, and the number of Fatal Pushes is either 1 or 2 per box, mostly 2 per box. I know, small sample size, variance and all that, but I'm not seeing anything unusual so far. In fact, the numbers I'm seeing are very close to the expected values.
That doesn’t sound right to me, so I was wondering if someone here, preferably with factual data, could clarify this matter about Fatal Push rarity.
Is this card as rare as some people claim, or are the unlucky booster openers just being too loud about it, and in reality the card is just as rare as any other uncommon in the set?
I̟̥͍̠ͅn̩͉̣͍̬͚ͅ ̬̬͖t̯̹̞̺͖͓̯̤h̘͍̬e͙̯͈̖̼̮ ̭̬f̺̲̲̪i͙͉̟̩̰r̪̝͚͈̝̥͍̝̲s̼̻͇̘̳͔ͅt̲̺̳̗̜̪̙ ̳̺̥̻͚̗ͅm̜̜̟̰͈͓͎͇o̝̖̮̝͇m̯̻̞̼̫̗͓̤e̩̯̬̮̩n͎̱̪̲̹͖t͇̖s̰̮ͅ,̤̲͙̻̭̻̯̹̰ ̖t̫̙̺̯͖͚̯ͅh͙̯̦̳̗̰̟e͖̪͉̼̯ ̪͕g̞̣͔a̗̦t̬̬͓͙̫̖̭̻e̩̻̯ ̜̖̦̖̤̭͙̬t̞̹̥̪͎͉ͅo͕͚͍͇̲͇͓̺ ̭̬͙͈̣̻t͈͍͙͓̫̖͙̩h̪̬̖̙e̗͈ ̗̬̟̞̺̤͉̯ͅa̦̯͚̙̜̮f͉͙̲̣̞̼t̪̤̞̣͚e̲͉̳̥r͇̪̙͚͓l̥̞̞͎̹̯̹ͅi͓̬f̮̥̬̞͈ͅe͎ ̟̩̤̳̠̯̩̯o̮̘̲p̟͚̣̞͉͓e͍̩̣n͔̼͕͚̜e̬̱d̼̘͎̖̹͍̮̠,͖̺̭̱̮ ̣̲͖̬̪̭̥a̪͚n̟̲̝̤̤̞̗d̘̱̗͇̮͕̳͕͔ ͖̞͉͎t̹̙͎h̰̱͉̗e̪̞̱̝̹̩ͅ ̠̱̩̭̦p̯̙e͓o̳͚̰̯̺̱̰͔̘p̬͎̱̣̼̩͇l̗̟̖͚̠e̱͉͔̱̦̬̟̙ ̖͚̪͔̼̦w̺̖̤̱e͖̗̻̦͓̖̘̜r̭̥e͔̹̫̱͕̦̰͕ ̗͔̠p̠̗͍͍̱̳̠r̰͔͎̰o͉̥͓̰͚̥s̟͚̹̱͔̣t͉̙̳̖͖̪̮r̥̘̥͙̹a͉̟̫̟̳̠̟̭t͈̜̰͈͎e̞̣̭̲̬ ͚̗̯̟͙i͍͖̰̘̦͖͉ṇ̮̻̯̦̲̩͍ ̦̮͚̫̤t͉͖̫͕ͅͅh͙̮̻̘̣̮̼e͕̺ ͙l͕̠͎̰̥i̲͓͉̲g̫̳̟͈͇̖h̠̦̖t͓̯͎̗ ̳̪̘̟̙̩̦o̫̲f̙͔̰̙̠ ̹̪̗͇̯t͖̼̼͉͖̬h̹͇̩e͚̖̺̤͉̹͕̪ ͚͓̭̝̺G͎̗̯̩o̫̯̮̟̮̳̘d̜̲͙̠-̩̳̯̲̗̜P̹̘̥͉̝h͍͈̗̖̝ͅa͍̗̮̼̗r̜̖͇̙̺a̭̺͔̞̳͈o̪̣͓̯̬͙̯̰̗h̖̦͈̥̯͔.͇̣̙̝
However, that is a pretty small difference and nobody would really notice it.
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Fatal Push is just as rare as the other uncommons, but ofcourse you ignore all the others and its well worth more than almost any rare you could open.
For more in depth information you can read an entire history article about Print Sheets
https://mtg.gamepedia.com/Print_sheet
So by print Sheets, theres enough Fatal Pushes around.
The irony is, i opened less Fatal Push in Aether Revolt than i opened Master Piece cards in Booster Drafts in that set (and they are hell lot more rare).
So that about statistics, the numbers that a single person opens is WAY too low to make any statement about what is odd or normal.
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You can expect to get at least one fatal push per box, and there’s a high chance of getting a second fatal push in one booster box.
Isn’t this what people are/were experiencing?
In order words, (there’s roughly a 50% chance of getting just one fatal push in one booster box. Therefore, it’s normal to open a booster box and get no fatal push cards) - Oops, wrong math.
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Yeah, unfortunately the people who actually did the mass openings have a much different story to tell. Whether by some unforeseen circumstance or by intentional design, the card did show up less than some other uncommons in the set. What I don't agree with is that Fatal Push was as rare as a mythic. It was more like it was caught between being a rare and uncommon. What I think would put the story to bed is if the mega sellers like SCG, Channel Fireball, and Card Kingdom could pitch in on the numbers opened, assuming they have records.
Also, as far as variance goes, I've had a friend open a booster box of Innistrad that had 3 Snapcaster Mage in it. Those kinds of things can happen as much as someone getting nothing but all the junk rares and maybe one or two good ones.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Seems to be a super shady video.
Fatal Push is no where more rare than other uncommons.
And it doesnt even make sense, on the Print Sheets it has the same number as the other uncommons.
But if you look for just 1 specific uncommon, your perception will be extremely shifted to look out for exactly that card.
----
I am not sure if print sheets in US are any different than in EU , maybe that is a factor too (while i doubt it).
WUBRG#BlackLotusMatterWUBRG
👮👮👮 #BlueLivesMatter 👮👮👮
I don't think there is a conspiracy at all. Wizards has had packs of cards where a rare is missing from the pack while other packs sometimes have two rares. It's not super common, but packing errors have been known to happen with MTG booster packs. Let's say every 1/16 packs that were supposed to have a fatal push in them in a particular run of boxes ended up with some other uncommon in it's place: It doesn't sound like a lot, but that would be all it would take to make it harder to find than other uncommon cards.
Again, I'm not supporting the entire "mythic rare" uncommon insanity because if it was that bad pre-order season would have had a very large number of back orders and angry customers. I think there may have been a print or packing error on one or two runs of the boxes and some unlucky people cracked those boxes, starting up the entire rumor.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
https://archidekt.com/user/71716
See, I had the exact opposite experience. I feel like every single draft I did I got a Top in at least 1 of the packs. By the time Kamigawa rotated out of standard (as did I, as I took a break from Magic around then) I had about 16 Tops. Then again, I was also the person who opened 6 Cranial Extractions in under a week (which was the most expensive Rare in the set at the time). Needless to say, I was pretty happy when I came back to Magic and started playing Commander that I had all these Tops.
Legacy - GW Enchantress
Modern - U Urzatron (In construction)
Multiplayer - B ZOMBIES
Casual - B Suicide Black
Casual - WURx Krark-Clan Ironworks
Pauper - URBx Affinity
Pauper - B Pestilence
Pauper - W Steel Soldiers
EDH - W Isamaru, Hound of Konda 1V1
EDH - GRB Kresh the Bloodbraided
EDH - GW Trostani, Selesnya's Voice
EDH - UR Niv-Mizzet, the Firemind
EDH - RB Lyzolda, The Blood Witch
EDH - UW Bruna, Light of Alabaster (Reworking)
EDH - UB Grimgrin, Corpse-Born
EDH - UG Vorel of the Hull Clade
EDH - WUG Phelddagrif
EDH - BGR Prossh, Skyraider of Kher
Pauper EDH - G Garruk's Packleader
Pauper EDH - RG Bloodbraid Elf
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That influences the expectations of someone who is chasing a specific card, in the way that, if the desired card is rare, you may be discouraged to chase it because you know the odds of getting it are small. Now, if the card is uncommon you are more inclined to chase it because the odds of getting it are more kind.
So, if a card is labelled uncommon and is as rare as a card labelled rare, the consumer is misled, and may buy more product than he would if the card was labelled accordingly.
I had a lotus bloom in every pack of time spiral I opened (4).
"Sometimes, the situation is outracing a threat, sometimes it's ignoring it, and sometimes it involves sideboarding in 4x Hope//Pray." --Doug Linn
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I'll let you know if/when i go back to Standard. I hate pulling cards i can't use.
It's not as rare as a rare though.
E: Other than to take the crown.
But I'm not presupposing anything. I assumed this subject is common knowledge, and I brought it to this forum in hope of getting people's experiences, and hopefully some factual data that corroborates or denies the assumption that fatal push is rarer than the other uncommons in the set.
If there aren't any chase rares in the set, sure. If there is even one chase rare, however, packs are going to be opened to chase it. Since that set had Masterpieces...
By saying "I assumed this subject is common knowledge" you're coming in with the bias that Fatal Push is a "rare" uncommon.
It's not.
By saying "I assumed this subject is common knowledge" you're coming in with the bias that Fatal Push is a "rare" uncommon.
[/quote]
No, Fatal Push is old news. The set was released many months ago.
What I assumed was that the existence of the suspiction was common knowledge by now.
The Breitbart of the Magic community. Thanks for linking to give unintended hits to his video.