I want to know how to calculate the odds of drawing 4 lands that produce WUGR by turn 4. The problem I'm having is that some lands produce more than one color and sometimes more than one mana (ravinica karoos, eg. gruul turf) and I don't know how to combine those odds.
Lets say you're deck is compose of 5-5-5-5 basic lands.
By turn 4, you would either get 10 or 11 cards depending if you've started snd you didnt mulligan. Will use 10 in this case.
Then it becomes 5 chances out of 60 multiplied by 10 to get land A mutipkied by the chances of getting land B then C then D
5/60*10 * 5/60*10 * 5/60*10 * 5/60*10
With you're dual land, you'll have to calculate the odds of different lands combination and add those odds together
If you have 3-3-5-5 and 4 dual lands covering the 3s
Then you woud have to assume that if you have land A then land B can either be of the chosen color or dual
Calculate the odds of
3-7-5-5 land A
7-3-5-5 land B just calculate first possibility and multiply by 2 because same odds as previous
4-(3)-5-5 Dual lands
Thats how i would do it....
But these are the perfect odds....if your cards are equal distance of each other.....mostly never happen's....
I dont do probability though....the curve etc...
But for someone who does, i beleive it starts by isolating every odds possible....
Lets say you're deck is compose of 5-5-5-5 basic lands.
By turn 4, you would either get 10 or 11 cards depending if you've started snd you didnt mulligan. Will use 10 in this case.
Then it becomes 5 chances out of 60 multiplied by 10 to get land A mutipkied by the chances of getting land B then C then D
5/60*10 * 5/60*10 * 5/60*10 * 5/60*10
With you're dual land, you'll have to calculate the odds of different lands combination and add those odds together
If you have 3-3-5-5 and 4 dual lands covering the 3s
Then you woud have to assume that if you have land A then land B can either be of the chosen color or dual
Calculate the odds of
3-7-5-5 land A
7-3-5-5 land B just calculate first possibility and multiply by 2 because same odds as previous
4-(3)-5-5 Dual lands
Thats how i would do it....
But these are the perfect odds....if your cards are equal distance of each other.....mostly never happen's....
I dont do probability though....the curve etc...
But for someone who does, i beleive it starts by isolating every odds possible....