First off: let me state that i am not in magic for collection or finance purposes, I love to play it and i play exclusively EDH. During the last six months, I sold a lot of my collection or older cards that acquired dust and value in my binders. Even after getting a lot of commander staples I am left with quite some cash on my MCM account. Now I am planning to get the enememy fetches once MM17 hits the shelves to complete my wanted lands collection. A friend of mine recommended to me to instead buy a box of MM17, and sell the stuff I don't want. Big chance I already get one or more of the fetches I want. I wouldn't mind if I don't get ALL my invested cash out of it, since my collection will increase with some good cards but I don't want to spend 200 euro on a box and end up with only 100 euro in play value/cards and another 100 euro to gather dust in my binders again. So given all this, do you think a box of MM17 would be a good investment for me as a commander player or not?
All advice is very appreciated
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
The secret to enjoyable Commander games is not winning first, but losing last.
If my post has no tags, then i posted from my phone.
So the same question was going through my mind a couple of days ago, and i decided to run statistical analysis on the matter.
Using an online simulator (mtgen.net) i opened around 20 boxes, 24 packs each, and noted each time all cards whose value was over 01.00 euro. Commons, Uncommons, Foils, and the rares, going by MCM prices.
Each time i was trying to beat 240.00eu as that is the current average price (+shipping)
Now, of the 20 boxes i opened, 10 resulted in Profit, 10 resulted in Loss
That gives us a 50 - 50 chance of gaining or losing, But:
The average remaining gain was around 40.00eu, with values min: 04.00 and max: 80.00
The average loss was around -80.00eu, with values from -40.00 to -170.00
So my conclusions are, that while you are AS likely to profit as you are to lose when investing in a booster box, when you lose, you lose harder.
Taking into calculation that 8/15 mythics have value <10.00eu, and that only fetches can give you value from rares, most boxes had such a loss, where if you had just ordered what you got as singles, you could have bought the best thing you opened, twice.
There even was a box with a Goyf, Liliana, and Foil Inquisition that didn't make a profit.
The box with the lowest value had 5 mythics in it, the most expensive of which was 1x Linvala.
So as a player who just wants a few of the cards for EDH, I'd advise you to stay away. I know I'll just stick to singles
First off: let me state that i am not in magic for collection or finance purposes, I love to play it and i play exclusively EDH. During the last six months, I sold a lot of my collection or older cards that acquired dust and value in my binders. Even after getting a lot of commander staples I am left with quite some cash on my MCM account. Now I am planning to get the enememy fetches once MM17 hits the shelves to complete my wanted lands collection. A friend of mine recommended to me to instead buy a box of MM17, and sell the stuff I don't want. Big chance I already get one or more of the fetches I want. I wouldn't mind if I don't get ALL my invested cash out of it, since my collection will increase with some good cards but I don't want to spend 200 euro on a box and end up with only 100 euro in play value/cards and another 100 euro to gather dust in my binders again. So given all this, do you think a box of MM17 would be a good investment for me as a commander player or not?
All advice is very appreciated
It's a better investment than anything in standard right now.
Right now the story on supply is not making a whole lot of sense since now small stores are getting orders cut from distributors and it seems like Wizards doesn't know how big it's own print run is.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
I think this typically depends on the volume you buy.If you are a reseller on a large scale, yeah, it's worth it. If you are just buying a box or three at $220, not going to make a lot. If you were one of the ones that got in at $175 or so a box, it's straight cash homie. Everyone is predicting high demand and that may be true but the indication we have is this set is printed in higher quantity that the previous ones like it. So, there is a potential for a a big price drop in a lot of these cards within 90 days of it's release. Maybe I'm wrong and the availability of power cards will draw in more new modern players and the demand will increase with the increased supply but I don't think so.
I wouldn't in general, the chance that your box has exceeded EV is much less likely that you break even or crack jank. Wait and pick up cheap dips in prices on singles.
All advice is very appreciated
If my post has no tags, then i posted from my phone.
So the same question was going through my mind a couple of days ago, and i decided to run statistical analysis on the matter.
Using an online simulator (mtgen.net) i opened around 20 boxes, 24 packs each, and noted each time all cards whose value was over 01.00 euro. Commons, Uncommons, Foils, and the rares, going by MCM prices.
Each time i was trying to beat 240.00eu as that is the current average price (+shipping)
Now, of the 20 boxes i opened, 10 resulted in Profit, 10 resulted in Loss
That gives us a 50 - 50 chance of gaining or losing, But:
The average remaining gain was around 40.00eu, with values min: 04.00 and max: 80.00
The average loss was around -80.00eu, with values from -40.00 to -170.00
So my conclusions are, that while you are AS likely to profit as you are to lose when investing in a booster box, when you lose, you lose harder.
Taking into calculation that 8/15 mythics have value <10.00eu, and that only fetches can give you value from rares, most boxes had such a loss, where if you had just ordered what you got as singles, you could have bought the best thing you opened, twice.
There even was a box with a Goyf, Liliana, and Foil Inquisition that didn't make a profit.
The box with the lowest value had 5 mythics in it, the most expensive of which was 1x Linvala.
So as a player who just wants a few of the cards for EDH, I'd advise you to stay away. I know I'll just stick to singles
even with a price of 220eu, the loss margins are still greater than the profit margins. Less so, but my point still stands.
(And I'm apparently not from Germany ;))
To get more, you need to hit multiple mythics , or foil expensive cards, which is just random.
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In general you pay extra, but like we all know, some people are stupid lucky, and others are not
WUBRG#BlackLotusMatterWUBRG
👮👮👮 #BlueLivesMatter 👮👮👮
It's a better investment than anything in standard right now.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
(W/U)(B/R)GForm of Progenitus, Shape of a Scrubland
BRGJund Tokens with Prossh, the Magic Dragon Foil
URGAnimar, the RUG CleanerFoil
RRRFeldon of the Third Path 2.0 Foil
BG(B/G)Not Another Meren DeckFoil
UR(U/R)Mizzix, Y Control and X Burn Spells
(W/U)(B/R)GHarold Ramos - The 35 Foot Long Twinkie (In +1/+1 counters)
UB(U/B)Dragonlord Silumgar
I love MM but not at $200+ a box.