I think it is also worth mentioning that buying a "pack or two at a time" really decreases your odds of pulling a mythic. I am confident you would see a significant uptick in your mythic pulls if you bought 5-8 packs at a time every 3rd WalMart trip instead of 1-2 per trip. Odds of pulling a Mythic are about 1 in 8.
Your odds of pulling a mythic out of any single pack are the same whether you're buying one or a hundred. That's how probability works.
OP, I've pulled mythics from packs bought at Target and doubt I've bought more than half a dozen over the last several years, so it sounds like you're just having a run of bad luck.
If you believe that opening one pack gives you the same odds of opening a mythic as opening 8 consecutive packs, then all I can say is best of luck to you in future pack opening endeavors.
You totally missed what he's saying. Opening 8 packs at once has no difference on your chances. Opening 8 over a period of time will have the same chances.
Try this. Assume the mythics have a perfect 1/8 distribution. We all know they don't, but for simplicity, go with it. Now take 800 packs put them in 100 groups of 8 where the 1/8 ratio holds. Now, have one person pick 1 random pack of from 80 different sets and a second person select 10 groups of eight. Now, calculate the odds based on probabilities of who gets the most mythics based on the fact they opened the same amount of packs.
That is an unlikely real world scenario, but given that there is a pre-packaged and set amount of mythics in a box, a case, a row of blisterpacks, etc., it is not accurate to say that once a determined amount of mythics in a set have been opened, you are still just as likely to open a mythic in the remaining packs in that set vs. the next set in the sequence.
But if your 100 packs of 8 were placed in that arrangement randomly, then there is absolutely no difference in probability between picking 1 pack from 80 different sets or 10 groups of eight.
The key point that not enough of you are taking into account is which BOX the packs come from. Since we know that the packing of boxes is very much NOT random, then there's a big difference in probability between 8 packs from the same box and 1 pack from 8 different boxes. BUT if we're not taking the box element into account and speaking purely about completely random packs whose origin is unknown, then there's no difference between 8 packs from one visit or 1 pack from each of 8 different visits.
Pulled two tarmogoyfs from Wal-Mart packs back in Future Sight. In fact, I'd say that Wal Mart and big box stores have been waaaay better odds than boxes. Weirdly enough.
Try this. Assume the mythics have a perfect 1/8 distribution. We all know they don't, but for simplicity, go with it. Now take 800 packs put them in 100 groups of 8 where the 1/8 ratio holds. Now, have one person pick 1 random pack of from 80 different sets and a second person select 10 groups of eight. Now, calculate the odds based on probabilities of who gets the most mythics based on the fact they opened the same amount of packs.
That is an unlikely real world scenario, but given that there is a pre-packaged and set amount of mythics in a box, a case, a row of blisterpacks, etc., it is not accurate to say that once a determined amount of mythics in a set have been opened, you are still just as likely to open a mythic in the remaining packs in that set vs. the next set in the sequence.
This only makes sense in the context of boxes. You are definitely more likely to pull a mythic if you buy 8 cards from the same box than if you are buying 1 card of 8 different boxes. This is because Wizards tries to put a certain number of Mythics in each box - within a margin of error - for quality control purposes.
However, because the blister packs at big box stores are packaged and sent off at a distribution rate that is less likely to be equal. Additionally, you do not know how long any given pack has been on the hook for - it may well be that the 8 consecutive packs you pick up came from different print runs and is no different than buying them at different times.
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Try this. Assume the mythics have a perfect 1/8 distribution. We all know they don't, but for simplicity, go with it. Now take 800 packs put them in 100 groups of 8 where the 1/8 ratio holds. Now, have one person pick 1 random pack of from 80 different sets and a second person select 10 groups of eight. Now, calculate the odds based on probabilities of who gets the most mythics based on the fact they opened the same amount of packs.
While I get what you're trying to say, what you're saying isn't quite true. Both players will have the same average number of mythics pulled, but the one who opens the random packs will have a higher standard deviation - they're less likely to end up with exactly ten mythics than the person who pulled 10 groups of eight, but the times they pull more than ten will cancel out the times they pull less than ten.
Myomighty is kind of right if you assume that the store puts out packs straight from the box, in the sense that product from one box (or group of blisters) will be on display one week, but the next week they will have gone through that product and product from a new box or group is available. Buying 8 at once would give you slightly increased odds with each non mythic pack opened, as that is one fewer non mythic pack available from that box, whereas if you buy a pack from 8 different boxes the odds for each pack are not reliant on the contents of the others. Its like drawing cards in a deck. Imagine you have 8 60 card decks with 25 land each. If you draw a card from each deck, the chances of any single card being a land is 25/60. However, if you take you 8 draws from the same deck, your chances of drawing a land increase with each nonland card drawn, (25/60, 25/59, 25/58, 25/57, etc.)
Of course, this all assumes that blister pack distribution works like booster box distribution, and that the product turnover rate would be fast enough for Myomighty's suggestion to make a difference (OP's store might go through product slowly enough that all 8 boosters will probably come from the same box/group whether he buys a booster a week for 8 weeks or 8 at once). Its a sensible strategy at a busy store where they fly through product, but really only there.
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Onering's 4 simple steps that let you solve any problem with Magic's gameplay
Whether its blue players countering your spells, red players burning you out, or combo, if you have a problem with an aspect of Magic's gameplay, you can fix it!
Step 1: Identify the problem. What aspect of Magic don't you like? Step 2: Find out how others deal with the problem. How do players deal with this aspect of the game when they run into it? Step 3: Do what those players do. Step 4: No more problem. Bonus: You are now better at Magic. Enjoy those extra wins!
But if your 100 packs of 8 were placed in that arrangement randomly, then there is absolutely no difference in probability between picking 1 pack from 80 different sets or 10 groups of eight.
The key point that not enough of you are taking into account is which BOX the packs come from. Since we know that the packing of boxes is very much NOT random, then there's a big difference in probability between 8 packs from the same box and 1 pack from 8 different boxes. BUT if we're not taking the box element into account and speaking purely about completely random packs whose origin is unknown, then there's no difference between 8 packs from one visit or 1 pack from each of 8 different visits.
This only makes sense in the context of boxes. You are definitely more likely to pull a mythic if you buy 8 cards from the same box than if you are buying 1 card of 8 different boxes. This is because Wizards tries to put a certain number of Mythics in each box - within a margin of error - for quality control purposes.
However, because the blister packs at big box stores are packaged and sent off at a distribution rate that is less likely to be equal. Additionally, you do not know how long any given pack has been on the hook for - it may well be that the 8 consecutive packs you pick up came from different print runs and is no different than buying them at different times.
RGTron
UGInfect
URStorm
WUBRAd Nauseam
BRGrishoalbrand
URGScapeshift
WBGAbzan Company
WUBRGAmulet Titan
BRGLiving End
WGBogles
While I get what you're trying to say, what you're saying isn't quite true. Both players will have the same average number of mythics pulled, but the one who opens the random packs will have a higher standard deviation - they're less likely to end up with exactly ten mythics than the person who pulled 10 groups of eight, but the times they pull more than ten will cancel out the times they pull less than ten.
Of course, this all assumes that blister pack distribution works like booster box distribution, and that the product turnover rate would be fast enough for Myomighty's suggestion to make a difference (OP's store might go through product slowly enough that all 8 boosters will probably come from the same box/group whether he buys a booster a week for 8 weeks or 8 at once). Its a sensible strategy at a busy store where they fly through product, but really only there.
Onering's 4 simple steps that let you solve any problem with Magic's gameplay
Step 1: Identify the problem. What aspect of Magic don't you like? Step 2: Find out how others deal with the problem. How do players deal with this aspect of the game when they run into it? Step 3: Do what those players do. Step 4: No more problem. Bonus: You are now better at Magic. Enjoy those extra wins!
Phenax - Mill
Breya - Combo
Sidisi, Brood Tyrant - Token
Oloros - Combo
Jeleva - eh...working on it
Yidris - Soft Combo