Doesn't matter, random is random. There might be some amount of non-randomness within boxes, but I'm pretty sure boxes within a case have no direct relation to one another.
Doesn't matter, random is random. There might be some amount of non-randomness within boxes, but I'm pretty sure boxes within a case have no direct relation to one another.
I'd get whatever was cheaper honestly. I don't think it matters much.
I did watch a kid come to the store to pick up a box he had preordered, and with his pocket change he bought one loose booster from another box. One pack in that box and the extra booster both contained the same strange miscut crimpy foil rare. The odds of that are so astronomical that I have no idea how they package these things.
Assuming they package the boxes in a case more or less sequentially, getting just a case is likely to decrease variance. So if there's an average of one Foil Mythic per 6 boxes, you are almost guaranteed to get exactly one Foil Mythic if you buy an entire case, whereas if you buy separate boxes, there's the possibility of getting more than one but also a larger possibility of getting zero.
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I'd get whatever was cheaper honestly. I don't think it matters much.
I did watch a kid come to the store to pick up a box he had preordered, and with his pocket change he bought one loose booster from another box. One pack in that box and the extra booster both contained the same strange miscut crimpy foil rare. The odds of that are so astronomical that I have no idea how they package these things.
Do you get your boxes/cases online? I like supporting local stores, but blowoutcards.com will always be much cheaper. Since you say you do whatever's cheapest I became curious.
Random may be random, but buying a case gives you more chances to get the other cards that one of those boxes didn't contain.
For example, one case of Khans at our LGS had miscut rares (where you could see the white dot). Each box had approximately 3-5 rares miscut in the same manner. I tried to get as many as possible, but people kept them or I just couldn't find all of them.
Assuming they package the boxes in a case more or less sequentially, getting just a case is likely to decrease variance. So if there's an average of one Foil Mythic per 6 boxes, you are almost guaranteed to get exactly one Foil Mythic if you buy an entire case, whereas if you buy separate boxes, there's the possibility of getting more than one but also a larger possibility of getting zero.
So there is a pattern to the six boxes within a case? How do you know this?
A case of one set is quite likely to be cheaper than 6 individual boxes. I'd go with a case of one particular set personally.
There's a 'pattern' in that if you open, say, 100 cases you're heavily likely to get the same number of polluted delta's in nonfoil as you are compared to dragon-style twins in nonfoil or at least a very close number. In one case you are kind of likely to open close to the same number of each specific rare but not virtually guaranteed. Forget what the term is called but the larger the sample size the more it evens out in the end. Just ask SCG how many dragon-style twins and polluted delta's they opened when they cracked their product to fulfill preorders and the numbers are likely close to being identical since they crack hundreds if not thousands of cases each set release I imagine.
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If you buy one case, you are more likely to get playsets of around half the rares for the set and 1 of each mythic plus 1-4 additional mythics. 1 case contains 1.78 sheets. A sheet is 121 cards, 53x2 rares and 15 mythics. You are highly unlikely to get the same foil rares in a case.
The only reason to open 6 boxes from different cases is to hope and pray for the small chance that you can get a playset of 1-2 mythics from them and/or two playsets of certain rares. You have a much smaller chance of opening a playset of a mythic from a sealed case.
If you buy one case, you are more likely to get playsets of around half the rares for the set and 1 of each mythic plus 1-4 additional mythics. 1 case contains 1.78 sheets. A sheet is 121 cards, 53x2 rares and 15 mythics. You are highly unlikely to get the same foil rares in a case.
The only reason to open 6 boxes from different cases is to hope and pray for the small chance that you can get a playset of 1-2 mythics from them and/or two playsets of certain rares. You have a much smaller chance of opening a playset of a mythic from a sealed case.
I've never opened a box with less than 3 mythics, and the majority of them have either 4 or 5. I estimated that a case would have on average 24 mythics.. how do you figure only one of each mythic plus 1 - 4 additional ones?
In any case, you're saying the boxes in a case aren't random at all... that they follow sequentially and wouldn't have many repeated mythics from box to box?
In any case, you're saying the boxes in a case aren't random at all... that they follow sequentially and wouldn't have many repeated mythics from box to box?
Booster boxes in a case are not random. The contents of one booster box is "dependant" on the contents of the other booster boxes in that case. For older booster boxes, you could confidently determine the contents of the entire case (ie. 5 remaining boxes) by knowing the partial contents of just one booster box. You did not need to even open the other 5 boxes to know their contents. Although newer/current booster cases may be different from cases in the past, they should not be thought of as random.
In any case, you're saying the boxes in a case aren't random at all... that they follow sequentially and wouldn't have many repeated mythics from box to box?
Booster boxes in a case are not random. The contents of one booster box is "dependant" on the contents of the other booster boxes in that case. For older booster boxes, you could confidently determine the contents of the entire case (ie. 5 remaining boxes) by knowing the partial contents of just one booster box. You did not need to even open the other 5 boxes to know their contents. Although newer/current booster cases may be different from cases in the past, they should not be thought of as random.
Hmm okay. So I'm a collector who collects exclusively via booster packs. Would you recommend a case of a set or six boxes from different places?
Hmm okay. So I'm a collector who collects exclusively via booster packs. Would you recommend a case of a set or six boxes from different places?
A single case will give you less variance and thus a better chance of getting an even spread (i.e. one of each mythic). Separate boxes will be more likely to give you duplicates, less likely to give you one of everything, just based on variance.
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WotC's printers have been trying all they can to add an element of randomness to booster boxes due to box mapping. This has affected the distribution of cards quite a bit. I haven't opened multiple cases, but I think that the times when you could count on having 1,8 sheets worth of rares and mythics per case are gone, or at least one of the many chances one has.
In the old days the print runs were pretty easy to solve, after getting 30+ boxes worth of data. Common print runs were solved within days of release (Common print runs were the bread and butter of high level drafters, as you could tell what was picked from the booster by looking which two other commons appear on the booster.) These days 100+ boxes don't give enopugh data to make a map of rares and common runs have jumps, making them much less useful.
And as human brains love extrapolating from very small samples, I opened four Dragons of Tarkir boxes from the same case and opened four copies of two different mythics, zero copies of 5 mythics, doubles of 4 mythics and single copy of 4 mythics. Naturally this is much too small sample to matter, but suggests that the cut rares and mythics get shuffled somewhat before being inserted into packs. Having much more duplicate and even triplicate rares per box nowadays also points to that direction. Singles sellers would actually have some relevant data, but I would guess that they have had to open slightly more product to fill presale quotas of mythics.
So I would also buy the six boxes the cheapest way. Sometimes it might be from local judge, who gets paid in product, or you can make a deal with local store. Here in Europe one can buy straight from few distributors (they have their own stores too). I personally like to support our local stores, but if for a case the padding is over 100$, I usually cave in and just buy from Games Island or some other supplier. Having the boxes being from the same case isn't that important, altough it would give you some interesting data.
What kind of non-randomness would this be then?
edit: Oh, within boxes. Nevermind.
I did watch a kid come to the store to pick up a box he had preordered, and with his pocket change he bought one loose booster from another box. One pack in that box and the extra booster both contained the same strange miscut crimpy foil rare. The odds of that are so astronomical that I have no idea how they package these things.
But, distribution of cards is not random.
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Do you get your boxes/cases online? I like supporting local stores, but blowoutcards.com will always be much cheaper. Since you say you do whatever's cheapest I became curious.
For example, one case of Khans at our LGS had miscut rares (where you could see the white dot). Each box had approximately 3-5 rares miscut in the same manner. I tried to get as many as possible, but people kept them or I just couldn't find all of them.
So there is a pattern to the six boxes within a case? How do you know this?
There's a 'pattern' in that if you open, say, 100 cases you're heavily likely to get the same number of polluted delta's in nonfoil as you are compared to dragon-style twins in nonfoil or at least a very close number. In one case you are kind of likely to open close to the same number of each specific rare but not virtually guaranteed. Forget what the term is called but the larger the sample size the more it evens out in the end. Just ask SCG how many dragon-style twins and polluted delta's they opened when they cracked their product to fulfill preorders and the numbers are likely close to being identical since they crack hundreds if not thousands of cases each set release I imagine.
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There are print runs that pseudo-randomly seed a box, it's reasonable to assume the same is true across multiple boxes packed sequentially.
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The only reason to open 6 boxes from different cases is to hope and pray for the small chance that you can get a playset of 1-2 mythics from them and/or two playsets of certain rares. You have a much smaller chance of opening a playset of a mythic from a sealed case.
My wife was on MTV with this video.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUutIZg2EpU
I've never opened a box with less than 3 mythics, and the majority of them have either 4 or 5. I estimated that a case would have on average 24 mythics.. how do you figure only one of each mythic plus 1 - 4 additional ones?
In any case, you're saying the boxes in a case aren't random at all... that they follow sequentially and wouldn't have many repeated mythics from box to box?
Hmm okay. So I'm a collector who collects exclusively via booster packs. Would you recommend a case of a set or six boxes from different places?
A single case will give you less variance and thus a better chance of getting an even spread (i.e. one of each mythic). Separate boxes will be more likely to give you duplicates, less likely to give you one of everything, just based on variance.
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In the old days the print runs were pretty easy to solve, after getting 30+ boxes worth of data. Common print runs were solved within days of release (Common print runs were the bread and butter of high level drafters, as you could tell what was picked from the booster by looking which two other commons appear on the booster.) These days 100+ boxes don't give enopugh data to make a map of rares and common runs have jumps, making them much less useful.
And as human brains love extrapolating from very small samples, I opened four Dragons of Tarkir boxes from the same case and opened four copies of two different mythics, zero copies of 5 mythics, doubles of 4 mythics and single copy of 4 mythics. Naturally this is much too small sample to matter, but suggests that the cut rares and mythics get shuffled somewhat before being inserted into packs. Having much more duplicate and even triplicate rares per box nowadays also points to that direction. Singles sellers would actually have some relevant data, but I would guess that they have had to open slightly more product to fill presale quotas of mythics.
So I would also buy the six boxes the cheapest way. Sometimes it might be from local judge, who gets paid in product, or you can make a deal with local store. Here in Europe one can buy straight from few distributors (they have their own stores too). I personally like to support our local stores, but if for a case the padding is over 100$, I usually cave in and just buy from Games Island or some other supplier. Having the boxes being from the same case isn't that important, altough it would give you some interesting data.
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