Given the reprint of Fetches, KTK seems like it will be a valuable set to open regardless of what else is printed in it. I was pondering on whether or not buying a case of KTK boxes at ~$600 would be worth it to resell at a profit if I sat on them for a few years?
Looking at ebay BIN prices on boxes from the past few fall sets:
2013 THS - $90
2012 RTR - $100
2011 INN - $200
2010 SOM - $190
2009 ZEN - $600 (+-100, high variability here, but we all know thats cause the Allied fetches and the Hidden Treasures gimmick)
2008 ALA - $400
Now, this is the only data set that I have - I wish I had a snapshot of what these boxes cost over time like the charts on mtggoldfish, but alas I'm not aware of such a resource (anyone have more extensive data to analyze?)
Seems like once a set rotates out of standard (actually about 1 year after rotation for INN), the box price doubles from the ~$100 range to ~$200.
Doing some quick math, let's say I drop $600 on a case today, then in 2017 sell it on ebay for ~1200. I'll subtract 20% for listing fees, shipping, etc.. to make it a bit more realistic. This means my take home would be $960 after 3 years, +$360 profit or 20% APY. Now, I know next to nothing about finance, but it seems to me that this is a rather solid investment, since the pitiful investment I have (a few thousand sitting in an online savings account at ally.com) is making ~1%APY.
What does anyone else think about this? Sure, it depends on hasboro not biting the dust and MtG still seeing an increase in popularity, but it seems solid especially since the fetches will be heavily coveted for eternal formats keeping the value of KTK elevated. Easy way to make a few hundred bucks only by sitting on a case for a few years.
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Depends on how patient you're planning on being. A full case of the set will be worth a good amount in the future, if only for the chance of opening fetches alone. After this current run, where I expect to see Zen fetches reprinted, I wouldn't expect to see them again for another 5-6 years at the earliest. Plenty of time for the set to accrue in value, could easily sell off each box for around $170+ I'd assume. $600 for a case on BIN is alright right now, not as big of an upside though since you have to wait so long to sell it off. If you have people to draft with, you could just charge $15 entry, sit out every draft, and come out with $720 total (thus $120 profit) in a fraction of the time you'd spent waiting for that $360 profit.
Taking home an extra $360 is nice, but waiting 3 years for it is a bit much for me. I'm more of a quick flip guy or I'll sit on something for a few months before selling/trading it off. I'd look more into stocking up on fetches when they're cheaper (I think they'll be around $8-12 in a month or two) and selling them for a bit of profit in the future. As long as the game continues to grow, useful lands will always be in demand. I don't expect them to reach Zen fetch levels of $60+ or whatever, but they could easily be worth $20-25 a piece in the future.
Not even the entire set has been spoiled so it's hard to say. Granted that the ons fetches are returning, but those could be the only things worth it. Ask this question again when you see the full set.
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KTK = khans. The set abbreviation doesn't necessarily equate to the set's initials. Though, that doesn't stop most people from referring to champions of kamigawa as CoK rather than ChK...
Yes. I think your analysis is sound and the presence of the fetches makes this a very safe long term bet. If you have the money to invest I would probably do well to put it in this product.
I'm going to take the opposite position of most in this thread and say no.
Wait 4-6 weeks after the set has been released. There will be enough new fetch lands to bring the prices down to a reasonable $10-15 while they're in standard. Take your $600 and buy fetches directly. There's a strong chance that the bulk of the set will be worth absolutely nothing (most sets are), while those fetches are virtually guaranteed to make you money over the years to come.
The prices will increase long term, post-rotation. They always do for multi-format staples in high demand. This is a much safer route imo.
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I'm going to take the opposite position of most in this thread and say no.
Wait 4-6 weeks after the set has been released. There will be enough new fetch lands to bring the prices down to a reasonable $10-15 while they're in standard. Take your $600 and buy fetches directly. There's a strong chance that the bulk of the set will be worth absolutely nothing (most sets are), while those fetches are virtually guaranteed to make you money over the years to come.
The prices will increase long term, post-rotation. They always do for multi-format staples in high demand. This is a much safer route imo.
A lot of the set has not been spoiled and it is hard to tell if any other card than the fetches will be like a Snapcaster Mage
My hunch right now is that buying fetchland singles one month into the set, which is usually the point at which it has been drafted a lot, will be better than picking out fetches out of a case.
Case is $600, if fetches are, say $20 (a high estimate), you can get 30 singles instead of the case. If you get 4 fetches out of each box (a high estimate), you will only get 24 from the case.
KTK is a three color set... it will have to have some great gems in the mono-colored cards to come close to Innistrad in value out of the packs. Innistrad is the opposite to RTR (I will use RTR because we have no idea how the non-fetchland part of KTK will be): you can pull delvers at common and snapcasters at rare... a lot of value there.
Well the thing with this set is that a lot of cards will be expensive , so if you are willing to sell "all" the stuff and have the time to do so (as it will take some time) , and the room to keep the cards, then do so.
Even the tri-lands go up in prices, as they are EDH relevant, people will buy them if the set is no longer in draft, the value goes up of that kind of cards.
Commons/Uncommons are nearly allways cheap, as long as the set is drafted, everyone can pick them up cheap and easy ; but not after that.
So overall we have at least 6 cards that are really worth it, fetchlands and Sarkhan (as long as it is relevant in standard) , then comes the random rares which might be ~1-2 bucks each.
If you have spare room to keep a CASE around, and the patience to keep it and then find someone that buys it later, thats a save bet to make money (not too much, but at least).
As people have said before, and what I tell my friends every single time they want to buy a box; don't. It is rarely if ever worth it. Take the 700 bucks (shipping too) and buy bulk fetches. You will use them more then you would use a box or 6, and they will increase in value. I would also split some of that money between shocks. Then, when the other 5 fetches are released, I would do the same again.
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Looking at ebay BIN prices on boxes from the past few fall sets:
2013 THS - $90
2012 RTR - $100
2011 INN - $200
2010 SOM - $190
2009 ZEN - $600 (+-100, high variability here, but we all know thats cause the Allied fetches and the Hidden Treasures gimmick)
2008 ALA - $400
Now, this is the only data set that I have - I wish I had a snapshot of what these boxes cost over time like the charts on mtggoldfish, but alas I'm not aware of such a resource (anyone have more extensive data to analyze?)
Seems like once a set rotates out of standard (actually about 1 year after rotation for INN), the box price doubles from the ~$100 range to ~$200.
Doing some quick math, let's say I drop $600 on a case today, then in 2017 sell it on ebay for ~1200. I'll subtract 20% for listing fees, shipping, etc.. to make it a bit more realistic. This means my take home would be $960 after 3 years, +$360 profit or 20% APY. Now, I know next to nothing about finance, but it seems to me that this is a rather solid investment, since the pitiful investment I have (a few thousand sitting in an online savings account at ally.com) is making ~1%APY.
What does anyone else think about this? Sure, it depends on hasboro not biting the dust and MtG still seeing an increase in popularity, but it seems solid especially since the fetches will be heavily coveted for eternal formats keeping the value of KTK elevated. Easy way to make a few hundred bucks only by sitting on a case for a few years.
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Taking home an extra $360 is nice, but waiting 3 years for it is a bit much for me. I'm more of a quick flip guy or I'll sit on something for a few months before selling/trading it off. I'd look more into stocking up on fetches when they're cheaper (I think they'll be around $8-12 in a month or two) and selling them for a bit of profit in the future. As long as the game continues to grow, useful lands will always be in demand. I don't expect them to reach Zen fetch levels of $60+ or whatever, but they could easily be worth $20-25 a piece in the future.
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Merged into another thread also about KtK box prices.
Wait 4-6 weeks after the set has been released. There will be enough new fetch lands to bring the prices down to a reasonable $10-15 while they're in standard. Take your $600 and buy fetches directly. There's a strong chance that the bulk of the set will be worth absolutely nothing (most sets are), while those fetches are virtually guaranteed to make you money over the years to come.
The prices will increase long term, post-rotation. They always do for multi-format staples in high demand. This is a much safer route imo.
Standard: I, for one, welcome our new rhinoceros overlords
Modern: Pod's dead, Bob's back.
Legacy: Lands, Deathblade, Death and Taxes, Elves, MUD
Retired Legacy: Merfolk, Goblins, Jund, Delver, Reanimator
A lot of the set has not been spoiled and it is hard to tell if any other card than the fetches will be like a Snapcaster Mage
My hunch right now is that buying fetchland singles one month into the set, which is usually the point at which it has been drafted a lot, will be better than picking out fetches out of a case.
Case is $600, if fetches are, say $20 (a high estimate), you can get 30 singles instead of the case. If you get 4 fetches out of each box (a high estimate), you will only get 24 from the case.
KTK is a three color set... it will have to have some great gems in the mono-colored cards to come close to Innistrad in value out of the packs. Innistrad is the opposite to RTR (I will use RTR because we have no idea how the non-fetchland part of KTK will be): you can pull delvers at common and snapcasters at rare... a lot of value there.
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Even the tri-lands go up in prices, as they are EDH relevant, people will buy them if the set is no longer in draft, the value goes up of that kind of cards.
Commons/Uncommons are nearly allways cheap, as long as the set is drafted, everyone can pick them up cheap and easy ; but not after that.
So overall we have at least 6 cards that are really worth it, fetchlands and Sarkhan (as long as it is relevant in standard) , then comes the random rares which might be ~1-2 bucks each.
If you have spare room to keep a CASE around, and the patience to keep it and then find someone that buys it later, thats a save bet to make money (not too much, but at least).
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